3 ways to plan for the (very) long term | Ari Wallach

譯者: Winston Szeto 審譯者: Yanyan Hong

So I've been "futuring," which is a term I made up --

我一直在「未來」著。 這是我發明的詞彙──

（笑聲）

(Laughter)

about three seconds ago.

大約三秒前想到的。

I've been futuring for about 20 years,

我一直在「未來」著 20 年後的事；

and when I first started, I would sit down with people,

我開始這樣做時， 我會坐在別人身旁，

and say, "Hey, let's talk 10, 20 years out."

說：「嗨，我們不如談談 10 年、 20 年後的事。」

And they'd say, "Great."

他們都說：「好啊。」

And I've been seeing that time horizon

此後我就一直見到時間範圍 變得愈來愈短，愈來愈短，

get shorter and shorter

and shorter,

so much so that I met with a CEO two months ago

甚至在兩個月前我跟 一名執行長見面時也見到。

and I said -- we started our initial conversation.

我們開始初次對談後，

He goes, "I love what you do. I want to talk about the next six months."

他隨後說：「我喜歡你做的事情。 我想談談未來六個月的情況。」

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

We have a lot of problems that we are facing.

我們面對很多問題。

這些都是文明規模的問題。

These are civilizational-scale problems.

The issue though is,

但問題在於，

we can't solve them

我們無法利用目前使用的心智模式 去嘗試解決這些問題。

using the mental models that we use right now

to try and solve these problems.

Yes, a lot of great technical work is being done,

沒錯，很多出色的技術性工作 在進行中，

但問題在於如果我們 真的要使事情明顯改變，

but there is a problem that we need to solve for a priori, before,

if we want to really move the needle on those big problems.

我們就需要採用 先驗方式去解決問題。

"Short-termism."

「短期主義」。

Right? There's no marches. There's no bracelets.

對吧﹖沒有任何遊行， 沒有任何示威。

There's no petitions that you can sign to be against short-termism.

沒有反對短期主義的請願讓你參加。

I tried to put one up, and no one signed.

我曾嘗試發起一場這樣的請願， 但沒有人參加。

It was weird.

實在奇怪。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

But it prevents us from doing so much.

但它使我們避免做得太多。

Short-termism, for many reasons,

短期主義因為種種原因

has pervaded every nook and cranny of our reality.

已經滲入現實中的每個角落。

I just want you to take a second

我只想各位花一秒鐘，

and just think about an issue that you're thinking, working on.

想想自己正在思考、處理甚麼問題。

It could be personal, it could be at work

它可以是個人的， 也可以是工作上的，

or it could be move-the-needle world stuff,

也可以是明顯改變世界的事情，

and think about how far out you tend to think

並想想自己在思考解決辦法時 通常會想到多遠。

about the solution set for that.

Because short-termism prevents the CEO

執行長因為短期主義

from buying really expensive safety equipment.

沒有購買非常昂貴的安全裝置。

It'll hurt the bottom line.

購買了就會減損淨利潤。

So we get the Deepwater Horizon.

所以我們有「深水地平線」 漏油事故。

Short-termism prevents teachers

教師因為短期主義

from spending quality one-on-one time with their students.

沒有用心的跟他們的學生 一對一相處。

So right now in America,

所以在當今的美國，

a high school student drops out every 26 seconds.

每 26 秒就有一名高中學生輟學。

Short-termism prevents Congress --

國會因為短期主義沒有……

sorry if there's anyone in here from Congress --

如果在座有來自國會的人，很抱歉。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

or not really that sorry --

其實不是很抱歉。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

from putting money into a real infrastructure bill.

沒有撥款到真正的基礎建設上，

So what we get is the I-35W bridge collapse

所以我們見到數年前 在密西西比河上，

over the Mississippi a few years ago,

I-35W 大橋倒塌，造成 13 人死亡。

13 killed.

It wasn't always like this. We did the Panama Canal.

但情況並非一直如此。 我們開鑿了巴拿馬運河。

We pretty much have eradicated global polio.

我們已經大致上消滅 全球的小兒麻痺症。

We did the transcontinental railroad, the Marshall Plan.

我們興建了橫貫大陸鐵路、 落實了馬歇爾計劃。

And it's not just big, physical infrastructure problems and issues.

不只是關乎大型實體基建的問題。

Women's suffrage, the right to vote.

女性投票權。

But in our short-termist time,

但在我們的短期主義時代，

where everything seems to happen right now

每樣事情都似乎在刻下發生，

and we can only think out past the next tweet or timeline post,

我們只可以想到 下一條推文或動態時報貼文，

we get hyper-reactionary.

我們變得過度保守。

So what do we do?

我們做了些甚麼﹖

We take people who are fleeing their war-torn country,

我們收容從戰亂國家逃亡來的人，

and we go after them.

然後跟蹤他們。

We take low-level drug offenders, and we put them away for life.

我們收容低度吸毒者， 然後終身囚禁他們。

And then we build McMansions without even thinking

我們像製作快餐般建造大量樓房，

about how people are going to get between them and their job.

卻沒有考慮人們怎樣 在買房和工作之間取捨。

It's a quick buck.

都是為了賺快錢。

Now, the reality is, for a lot of these problems,

事實上，這些問題 很多都有技術性的解決辦法，

there are some technical fixes,

a lot of them.

數之不盡。

I call these technical fixes sandbag strategies.

我稱之為技術性解決沙包策略。

So you know there's a storm coming,

你知道風暴正在來臨，

the levee is broken, no one's put any money into it,

沒有人在崩堤後投放任何資金，

你就在家的周圍擺放沙包。

you surround your home with sandbags.

And guess what? It works.

信不信由你，這是奏效的。

Storm goes away, the water level goes down,

風暴離開了，水位下降，

you get rid of the sandbags,

你就移走沙包，

and you do this storm after storm after storm.

每次風暴過後都是這樣做。

And here's the insidious thing.

陰險之處在於：

A sandbag strategy

沙包策略

can get you reelected.

使你獲得連任。

A sandbag strategy

沙包策略

can help you make your quarterly numbers.

有助你報告季度業績。

Now, if we want to move forward

如果我們要往

into a different future than the one we have right now,

跟現在情況不同的未來發展，

because I don't think we've hit --

因為我不認為我們在 2016 年

2016 is not peak civilization.

已經到達文明的巔峰。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

There's some more we can do.

我們還有更多事情要做。

But my argument is that unless we shift our mental models and our mental maps

但我的論點是：除非我們轉變

思考短期內發生的事情時 所採用的心智模式和心智地圖，

on how we think about the short,

it's not going to happen.

問題是解決不了的。

So what I've developed is something called "longpath,"

所以我發展出一套 我稱為「長途」的東西，

and it's a practice.

它是一種實務。

And longpath isn't a kind of one-and-done exercise.

「長途」不會是 做過一件事情一次後就不再做。

I'm sure everyone here at some point has done an off-site

我肯定在座任何人 都曾經在辦公室以外場所開會，

with a lot of Post-It notes and whiteboards,

用上很多告示貼和白板，

and you do --

而各位都這樣做──

no offense to the consultants in here who do that --

無意得罪有這樣做的顧問師──

and you do a long-term plan,

各位制訂長期計劃，

and then two weeks later, everyone forgets about it.

在兩周後所有人都把它忘記。

Right? Or a week later. If you're lucky, three months.

對吧？或者一周後就忘記， 在幸運的情況下三個月後才忘記。

It's a practice because it's not necessarily a thing that you do.

它稱為實務， 因為它未必是你做的事情。

It's a process where you have to revisit different ways of thinking

它是一個檢討作出各項重大決定時 不同的思考方法的過程。

for every major decision that you're working on.

So I want to go through those three ways of thinking.

我希望逐一討論這三種思考方法。

So the first: transgenerational thinking.

第一種：跨世代思考。

I love the philosophers:

我喜歡哲學家：

Plato, Socrates, Habermas, Heidegger.

柏拉圖、蘇格拉底、 哈伯馬斯、海德格。

I was raised on them.

他們陪著我長大。

But they all did one thing

他們都做過同一件事，

that didn't actually seem like a big deal

而這件事在我尚未開始探討之前

until I really started kind of looking into this.

不像是非常重要。

And they all took,

他們所有人在衡量整個現實世界裡 何謂道德和美善時，

as a unit of measure for their entire reality

of what it meant to be virtuous and good,

the single lifespan,

都是以整個生命為單位，

from birth to death.

由出生到死亡。

But here's a problem with these issues:

但關於這些問題的問題在於：

they stack up on top of us,

這些問題被加諸我們身上，

because the only way we know how to do something good in the world

因為我們只能把在世上行善 理解為在出生和死亡之間進行。

is if we do it between our birth and our death.

我們都是被設定這樣做的。

That's what we're programmed to do.

你走到任何書店的自救書籍部門時，

If you go to the self-help section in any bookstore,

it's all about you.

所有都是關於你自己。

Which is great,

這是好事，

unless you're dealing with some of these major issues.

除非你要處理部分這些重大問題。

And so with transgenerational thinking,

從跨世代思考出發──

which is really kind of transgenerational ethics,

其實就是跨世代道德──

you're able to expand how you think about these problems,

你就可以擴闊思考這些問題的方法，

what is your role in helping to solve them.

而這是你在協助解決問題上 所擔當的角色。

Now, this isn't something that just has to be done at the Security Council chamber.

這並非一些必須在 安理會大會上進行的事。

It's something that you can do in a very kind of personal way.

這是一些你可以個人方式進行的事。

So every once in a while, if I'm lucky, my wife and I like to go out to dinner,

每隔一段時間， 我有幸跟妻子出外晚膳，

and we have three children under the age of seven.

而我們有三名七歲以下的孩子，

So you can imagine it's a very peaceful, quiet meal.

可想而知那頓飯吃得非常寧靜。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

So we sit down and literally all I want to do is just eat and chill,

我們坐下，我真的 只想吃東西和輕鬆一下，

and my kids have a completely and totally different idea

而我的孩子對於我們做的事情 有完全不同的看法。

of what we're going to be doing.

And so my first idea

我的第一個想法

is my sandbag strategy, right?

就是沙包策略，對吧？

It's to go into my pocket and take out the iPhone

那就是從口袋中拿出 iPhone，

and give them "Frozen"

給他們《冰雪奇緣》

or some other bestselling game thing.

或其他暢銷遊戲。

And then I stop

然後我停止這個想法，

and I have to kind of put on this transgenerational thinking cap.

我要採用這個跨世代思考方法。

I don't do this in the restaurant, because it would be bizarre,

我不在餐館做這樣的事， 因為這會很怪誕，

but I have to --

但我卻要做──

I did it once, and that's how I learned it was bizarre.

我做過一次，所以明白這很怪誕。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And you have to kind of think, "OK, I can do this."

你要認為自己一定做得到。

But what is this teaching them?

但這教導他們什麼？

So what does it mean if I actually bring some paper

我帶幾張紙或跟他們談話建立關係，

or engage with them in conversation?

這些行為代表什麼？

It's hard. It's not easy, and I'm making this very personal.

這並非易事， 而我以非常個人的方式去做。

It's actually more traumatic

實際上這比任何我在世上 處理過的大問題更加令人不安──

than some of the big issues that I work on in the world --

entertaining my kids at dinner.

在晚膳時逗自己的孩子開心。

But what it does is it connects them here in the present with me,

但這樣做是要使我 跟他們在當下聯繫起來，

but it also --

此外──

and this is the crux of transgenerational thinking ethics --

這是跨世代思考道德的關鍵所在──

it sets them up to how they're going to interact with their kids

為他們準備如何跟他們的孩子的 孩子的孩子互動。

and their kids and their kids.

Second, futures thinking.

第二：未來思考。

When we think about the future,

當我們想到未來時，

10, 15 years out,

就是指未來 10 至 15 年。

give me a vision of what the future is.

讓我知道各位對未來的想像。

You don't have to give it to me, but think in your head.

各位毋須告訴我， 自己思考一下就好了。

And what you're probably going to see

你大概會見到的 是一塊主導文化透視鏡，

is the dominant cultural lens

that dominates our thinking about the future right now:

主導我們現在怎樣思考未來：

technology.

科技。

So when we think about the problems,

當我們思考這些問題時，

we always put it through a technological lens,

我們從來都戴著科技透視鏡，

a tech-centric, a techno-utopia, and there's nothing wrong with that,

擁抱科技中心或科技烏托邦主義。 這並非錯事，

but it's something that we have to really think deeply about

但如果要在這些重大問題上有進展， 這就是我們必須深入思考的事情，

if we're going to move on these major issues,

because it wasn't always like this. Right?

因為並非所有問題都是這樣，對吧？

The ancients had their way of thinking

遠古時代的人對未來是甚麼 有他們的思考方式。

about what the future was.

The Church definitely had their idea of what the future could be,

對於未來可以變成怎樣， 教會絕對有他們的看法，

and you could actually pay your way into that future. Right?

你其實可以付錢 為進入未來那個世界鋪路，對吧？

And luckily for humanity,

人類幸運之處

we got the scientific revolution.

在於他們有科技革命。

From there, we got the technology,

此後我們有了科技，

but what has happened --

但其後發生的──

And by the way, this is not a critique.

順帶一提，這並不是批判。

I love technology.

我喜愛科技。

Everything in my house talks back to me,

我的房子內所有東西都跟我回嘴，

from my children to my speakers to everything.

我的孩子以至我的揚聲器都是。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

But we've abdicated the future from the high priests in Rome

但我們卻把未來主導權 從羅馬的大祭司褫奪過來，

to the high priests of Silicon Valley.

交給矽谷的大祭司。

So when we think, well, how are we going to deal with climate

所以當我們思考怎樣應對氣候、

or with poverty or homelessness,

貧窮或流浪漢問題時，

our first reaction is to think about it through a technology lens.

我們的第一反應 就是透過科技去思考。

And look, I'm not advocating that we go to this guy.

我不是鼓吹大家 去聽這位老兄的說話。

I love Joel, don't get me wrong,

我喜歡約爾．歐斯汀的 電視佈道，別誤會，

but I'm not saying we go to Joel.

但我不是要各位聽他的說話。

What I'm saying is we have to rethink

我要說的是，我們必須重新思考 只用一種方法探討未來、

our base assumption about only looking at the future in one way,

only looking at it through the dominant lens.

只透過主導透視鏡 探討未來的基本假設。

Because our problems are so big and so vast

因為我們的問題實在龐大和廣闊，

that we need to open ourselves up.

我們需要開放自己。

So that's why I do everything in my power not to talk about the future.

所以我在權限內 盡量不談「一個」未來。

I talk about futures.

我談的是多個未來。

It opens the conversation again.

這樣重啟對話。

So when you're sitting and thinking

當你坐著思考

about how do we move forward on this major issue --

怎樣在重大問題上前進──

it could be at home,

這問題可以是家庭，

it could be at work,

可以是工作，

it could be again on the global stage --

也可以再次是全球性問題──

don't cut yourself off from thinking about something beyond technology as a fix

別打斷自己思考 科技以外的解決辦法，

because we're more concerned about technological evolution right now

因為我們目前關心科技進化 多於道德進化。

than we are about moral evolution.

And unless we fix for that,

除非我們有解決科技進化的辦法，

we're not going to be able to get out of short-termism

否則我們不能擺脫短期主義、

and get to where we want to be.

達到理想的境界。

The final, telos thinking. This comes from the Greek root.

最後：終極 (Telos) 思考。 這來自希臘語詞根。

Ultimate aim and ultimate purpose.

終極目標和終極用途。

And it's really asking one question:

這其實都是問一個問題：

to what end?

目的何在？

When was the last time you asked yourself: To what end?

你上一次何時自問目的何在？

And when you asked yourself that, how far out did you go?

當你這樣自問，你走得有多遠？

Because long isn't long enough anymore.

因為長遠已不再夠長。

Three, five years doesn't cut it.

三或五年也不夠長。

It's 30, 40, 50, 100 years.

30、40、50、100 年才夠。

In Homer's epic, "The Odyssey,"

在荷馬的史詩《奧德賽》，

Odysseus had the answer to his "what end."

奧德修斯有了「目的何在」的答案。

It was Ithaca.

那就是伊薩卡。

It was this bold vision of what he wanted --

他懷著雄心壯志，就是想要

to return to Penelope.

回到妻子佩涅羅珀的身邊。

And I can tell you, because of the work that I'm doing,

我可以告訴各位，因為我的工作，

but also you know it intuitively -- we have lost our Ithaca.

也因為各位憑直覺也知道的事實， 我們已失去了我們的伊薩卡。

We have lost our "to what end," so we stay on this hamster wheel.

我們已失去了我們的「目的何在」， 所以要留在這個倉鼠輪上。

And yes, we're trying to solve these problems,

沒錯，我們正嘗試解決這些問題，

but what comes after we solve the problem?

但解決了問題後是甚麼境況？

And unless you define what comes after, people aren't going to move.

除非你界定日後的境況是甚麼， 否則人們是不會行動的。

The businesses -- this isn't just about business --

商界──不只關乎營商──

but the businesses that do consistently, who break out of short-termism

當中那些一直突破短期主義的企業，

not surprisingly are family-run businesses.

毫無意外地都是家族企業。

They're transgenerational. They're telos. They think about the futures.

它們都是跨世代， 懷著終極目標，思考未來。

And this is an ad for Patek Philippe. They're 175 years old,

這就是百達翡麗的廣告， 手錶有 175 年的歷史，

and what's amazing is that they literally embody

令人驚異的是，這些手錶確實象徵

this kind of longpathian sense in their brand,

品牌帶出的長途式氣質，

because, by the way, you never actually own a Patek Philippe,

因為畢竟你從來都不是 真正擁有百達翡麗，

and I definitely won't --

而我當然不會擁有，

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

unless somebody wants to just throw 25,000 dollars on the stage.

除非有人想拋 25,000 元到台上。

You merely look after it for the next generation.

你只是替下一代看守它。

So it's important that we remember,

我們要記住的重要一點就是：

the future, we treat it like a noun.

我們把未來當成名詞看待。

It's not. It's a verb.

它不是名詞，而是動詞。

It requires action.

它是需要行動。

It requires us to push into it.

未來是要闖進去的，

It's not this thing that washes over us.

而不是忽然影響我們的事情。

It's something that we actually have total control over.

它其實已是我們完全控制的東西，

但在短期社會，我們最終感覺不到。

But in a short-term society, we end up feeling like we don't.

我們感覺像備受限制。

We feel like we're trapped.

We can push through that.

我們可以衝破這些限制。

Now I'm getting more comfortable

現在我愈來愈能夠處之泰然，

in the fact that at some point

那就是在無可避免的未來， 某個時間點，

in the inevitable future,

I will die.

我將會死亡。

But because of these new ways of thinking and doing,

因為這種思考和行動的新方式，

both in the outside world and also with my family at home,

無論面對外面的世界， 或者面對我的家人，

and what I'm leaving my kids, I get more comfortable in that fact.

想像我給孩子留下甚麼， 我對這個事實愈來愈能處之泰然。

And it's something that a lot of us are really uncomfortable with,

很多人都對這個事實非常不安，

but I'm telling you,

但我要告訴你，

think it through.

徹底思考一下。

Apply this type of thinking and you can push yourself past

應用這種思考方式，你就可以超越

what's inevitably very, very uncomfortable.

那些無可避免地令人非常不安的事。

And it all begins really with yourself asking this question:

一切始於你問自己這個問題：

What is your longpath?

你的未來的長途是甚麼﹖

But I ask you, when you ask yourself that

但我要求各位， 當你們問自己這個問題時，

now or tonight or behind a steering wheel

無論是現在、今晚、駕駛時、

or in the boardroom or the situation room:

在辦公室或者戰情室，

push past the longpath,

超越長途。

quick, oh, what's my longpath the next three years or five years?

噢，我未來三至五年的 長途究竟是甚麼？

Try and push past your own life if you can

盡可能嘗試超越自己的生命，

because it makes you do things a little bit bigger

因為這使你做出比你 想像中能做的更大的事情。

than you thought were possible.

Yes, we have huge, huge problems out there.

沒錯，我們外面有很多龐大的問題。

With this process, with this thinking,

有了這個程序，有了這種思考方式，

I think we can make a difference.

我認為大家可以成就改變。

I think you can make a difference,

我認為你可以成就改變，

and I believe in you guys.

我相信各位。

Thank you.

感謝大家。

(Applause)

（鼓掌聲）