3 ways to plan for the (very) long term | Ari Wallach

251,658 views ใƒป 2017-05-05

TED


ืื ื ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ืœืžื˜ื” ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ.

ืžืชืจื’ื: Ido Dekkers ืžื‘ืงืจ: Sigal Tifferet
00:12
So I've been "futuring," which is a term I made up --
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ืื– ืื ื™ "ื”ืชืขืชื“ืชื™," ืฉื–ื” ืžื•ื ื— ืฉืื ื™ ื”ืžืฆืืชื™ --
00:16
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
00:17
about three seconds ago.
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ืœืคื ื™ ื‘ืขืจืš ืฉืœื•ืฉ ืฉื ื™ื•ืช.
00:18
I've been futuring for about 20 years,
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ื”ืชืขืชื“ืชื™ ื‘ืขืจืš 20 ืฉื ื”,
00:21
and when I first started, I would sit down with people,
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ื•ื›ืฉื”ืชื—ืœืชื™, ื”ื™ื™ืชื™ ื™ื•ืฉื‘ ืขื ืื ืฉื™ื,
00:24
and say, "Hey, let's talk 10, 20 years out."
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ื•ืื•ืžืจ, "ื”ื™ื™, ื‘ื•ืื• ื ื“ื‘ืจ ืขืœ ืขื•ื“ 10, 20 ืฉื ื”."
00:27
And they'd say, "Great."
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ื•ื”ื ื”ื™ื• ืื•ืžืจื™ื, "ืžืขื•ืœื”."
00:29
And I've been seeing that time horizon
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ื•ืจืื™ืชื™ ืฉืื•ืคืง ื”ื–ืžืŸ ื”ื–ื”
00:31
get shorter and shorter
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ื”ืชืงืฆืจ ื•ื”ืชืงืฆืจ
00:34
and shorter,
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ื•ื”ืชืงืฆืจ,
00:35
so much so that I met with a CEO two months ago
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ื›ืœ ื›ืš ื”ืชืงืฆืจ ืฉื ืคื’ืฉืชื™ ืขื ืžื ื›"ืœ ืœืคื ื™ ื—ื•ื“ืฉื™ื™ื
00:39
and I said -- we started our initial conversation.
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ื•ืืžืจืชื™ -- ื”ืชื—ืœื ื• ืืช ื”ืฉื™ื—ื” ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื™ืช ืฉืœื ื•.
00:41
He goes, "I love what you do. I want to talk about the next six months."
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ื•ื”ื•ื ืื•ืžืจ, "ืื ื™ ืื•ื”ื‘ ืืช ืžื” ืฉืืชื” ืขื•ืฉื”, ืื ื™ ืจื•ืฆื” ืœื“ื‘ืจ ืขืœ ืฉืฉืช ื”ื—ื•ื“ืฉื™ื ื”ื‘ืื™ื."
00:45
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
00:47
We have a lot of problems that we are facing.
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ื™ืฉ ืœื ื• ื”ืจื‘ื” ื‘ืขื™ื•ืช ืฉืขื•ืžื“ื•ืช ื‘ืคื ื™ื ื•.
00:51
These are civilizational-scale problems.
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ืืœื• ื‘ืขื™ื•ืช ื‘ืงื ื” ืžื™ื“ื” ืฉืœ ืฆื™ื‘ื™ืœื™ื–ืฆื™ื”.
00:55
The issue though is,
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ืื‘ืœ ื”ื‘ืขื™ื” ื”ื™ื,
00:57
we can't solve them
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ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ืœื ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœืคืชื•ืจ ืื•ืชืŸ
00:59
using the mental models that we use right now
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ื‘ืฉื™ืžื•ืฉ ื‘ืžื•ื“ืœื™ื ื”ืžื—ืฉื‘ืชื™ื™ื ื‘ื”ื ืื ื—ื ื• ืžืฉืชืžืฉื™ื ืขื›ืฉื™ื•
01:01
to try and solve these problems.
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ื›ื“ื™ ืœื ืกื•ืช ืœืคืชื•ืจ ืืช ื”ื‘ืขื™ื•ืช ื”ืืœื•.
01:03
Yes, a lot of great technical work is being done,
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ื›ืŸ, ื”ืจื‘ื” ืขื‘ื•ื“ื” ื˜ื›ื ื™ืช ื ืขืฉื™ืช,
01:06
but there is a problem that we need to solve for a priori, before,
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ืื‘ืœ ื™ืฉ ื‘ืขื™ื” ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ืœืคืชื•ืจ ืžืจืืฉ, ืœืคื ื™,
01:11
if we want to really move the needle on those big problems.
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ืื ืื ื—ื ื• ืจื•ืฆื™ื ื‘ืืžืช ืœื”ืชืงื“ื ืžืฉืžืขื•ืชื™ืช ื‘ื‘ืขื™ื•ืช ื”ื’ื“ื•ืœื•ืช ื”ืืœื•.
01:14
"Short-termism."
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"ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื” ืœื˜ื•ื•ื— ืงืฆืจ."
01:16
Right? There's no marches. There's no bracelets.
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ื ื›ื•ืŸ? ืื™ืŸ ืžืฆืขื“ื™ื. ืื™ืŸ ืฆืžื™ื“ื™ื.
01:19
There's no petitions that you can sign to be against short-termism.
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ืื™ืŸ ืขืฆื•ืžื•ืช ืขืœื™ื”ืŸ ืืชื ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœื—ืชื•ื ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ื ื’ื“ ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื” ืœื˜ื•ื•ื— ืงืฆืจ.
01:23
I tried to put one up, and no one signed.
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ื ื™ืกื™ืชื™ ืœื”ืขืœื•ืช ืื—ืช ืคืขื, ื•ืืฃ ืื—ื“ ืœื ื—ืชื.
01:25
It was weird.
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ื–ื” ื”ื™ื” ืžื•ื–ืจ.
01:27
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
01:29
But it prevents us from doing so much.
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ืื‘ืœ ื”ื™ื ืžื•ื ืขืช ืžืื™ืชื ื• ืœืขืฉื•ืช ื›ืœ ื›ืš ื”ืจื‘ื”.
01:32
Short-termism, for many reasons,
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ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื” ืœื˜ื•ื•ื— ืงืฆืจ, ืžืกื™ื‘ื•ืช ืจื‘ื•ืช,
01:34
has pervaded every nook and cranny of our reality.
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ื ื›ื ืกื” ืœื›ืœ ืžืงื•ื ื‘ืžืฆื™ืื•ืช ืฉืœื ื•.
01:37
I just want you to take a second
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ืจืง ืจืฆื™ืชื™ ืฉืชืงื—ื• ืฉื ื™ื”
01:39
and just think about an issue that you're thinking, working on.
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ื•ืชื—ืฉื‘ื• ืขืœ ื”ื ื•ืฉืื™ื ืฉืืชื ื—ื•ืฉื‘ื™ื, ืขื•ื‘ื“ื™ื ืขืœื™ื”ื.
01:43
It could be personal, it could be at work
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ื–ื” ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืื™ืฉื™, ื–ื” ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืขื‘ื•ื“ื”
01:45
or it could be move-the-needle world stuff,
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ืื• ืฉื–ื” ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืžืฉื”ื• ืžืฉืžืขื•ืชื™ ื‘ืจืžื” ื”ืขื•ืœืžื™ืช,
01:47
and think about how far out you tend to think
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ื•ื—ืฉื‘ื• ืขื“ ื›ืžื” ืจื—ื•ืง ืืชื ื ื•ื˜ื™ื ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘
01:49
about the solution set for that.
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ื‘ื ื•ื’ืข ืœืžืฆื™ืืช ืคืชืจื•ืŸ ืœื–ื”.
01:53
Because short-termism prevents the CEO
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ื›ื™ ืžื—ืฉื‘ื” ืœื˜ื•ื•ื— ืงืฆืจ ืžื•ื ืขืช ืžื”ืžื ื›"ืœ
01:58
from buying really expensive safety equipment.
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ืœืงื ื•ืช ืฆื™ื•ื“ ื‘ื˜ื™ื—ื•ืช ื‘ืืžืช ื™ืงืจ.
02:01
It'll hurt the bottom line.
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ื–ื” ื™ืคื’ืข ื‘ืฉื•ืจื” ื”ืชื—ืชื•ื ื”.
02:03
So we get the Deepwater Horizon.
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ืื– ืื ื—ื ื• ืžืงื‘ืœื™ื ืžืงืจื” ื›ืžื• ืคื™ืฆื•ืฅ ืขืœ ืืกื“ืช ืงื™ื“ื•ื—.
02:06
Short-termism prevents teachers
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ืžื—ืฉื‘ื” ืœื˜ื•ื•ื— ืงืฆืจ ืžื•ื ืขืช ืžืžื•ืจื™ื
02:08
from spending quality one-on-one time with their students.
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ืœื‘ืœื•ืช ื–ืžืŸ ืื™ื›ื•ืช ืื—ื“ ืขืœ ืื—ื“ ืขื ื”ืชืœืžื™ื“ื™ื ืฉืœื”ื.
02:12
So right now in America,
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ืื– ืขื›ืฉื™ื• ื‘ืืžืจื™ืงื”,
02:14
a high school student drops out every 26 seconds.
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ืชืœืžื™ื“ ืชื™ื›ื•ืŸ ื ื•ืฉืจ ื›ืœ 26 ืฉื ื™ื•ืช.
02:19
Short-termism prevents Congress --
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ืžื—ืฉื‘ื” ืœื˜ื•ื•ื— ืงืฆืจ ืžื•ื ืขืช ืžื”ืงื•ื ื’ืจืก --
02:21
sorry if there's anyone in here from Congress --
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ืกืœื™ื—ื” ืื ืžื™ืฉื”ื• ืคื” ืžื”ืงื•ื ื’ืจืก --
02:24
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
02:26
or not really that sorry --
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ืื• ืœื ื‘ืืžืช ื›ืœ ื›ืš ืžืฆื˜ืขืจ --
02:28
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
02:30
from putting money into a real infrastructure bill.
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ืœื”ืฉืงื™ืข ื›ืกืฃ ื‘ื—ื•ืง ืชืฉืชื™ื•ืช ืืžื™ืชื™.
02:33
So what we get is the I-35W bridge collapse
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ืื– ืžื” ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ืžืงื‘ืœื™ื ื–ื” ื”ืชืžื•ื˜ื˜ื•ืช ื’ืฉืจ ื”-I-35
02:36
over the Mississippi a few years ago,
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ืžืขืœ ื ื”ืจ ื”ืžื™ืกื™ืกื™ืคื™ ืœืคื ื™ ื›ืžื” ืฉื ื™ื,
02:38
13 killed.
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13 ื ื”ืจื’ื•.
02:40
It wasn't always like this. We did the Panama Canal.
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ื–ื” ืœื ืชืžื™ื“ ื”ื™ื” ื›ื›ื”. ื‘ื ื™ื ื• ืืช ืชืขืœืช ืคื ืžื”.
02:44
We pretty much have eradicated global polio.
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ื“ื™ ื”ืฉืžื“ื ื• ืืช ื”ืคื•ืœื™ื• ื‘ืขื•ืœื.
02:46
We did the transcontinental railroad, the Marshall Plan.
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ื‘ื ื™ื ื• ืืช ืžืกื™ืœืช ื”ืจื›ื‘ืช ื”ื˜ืจื ืก ืงื•ื ื˜ื™ื ื ื˜ืœื™ืช, ืชื•ื›ื ื™ืช ืžืจืฉืœ.
02:50
And it's not just big, physical infrastructure problems and issues.
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ื•ืืœื” ืœื ืจืง ื‘ืขื™ื•ืช ืขื ืชืฉืชื™ื•ืช ืคื™ื–ื™ื•ืช ื’ื“ื•ืœื•ืช,
02:54
Women's suffrage, the right to vote.
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ื”ืžืื‘ืง ืœื–ื›ื•ืช ื”ื”ืฆื‘ืขื” ืฉืœ ื ืฉื™ื.
02:56
But in our short-termist time,
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ืื‘ืœ ื‘ื–ืžืŸ ืฉืœ ื”ืžื—ืฉื‘ื” ืœื˜ื•ื•ื— ื”ืงืฆืจ ืฉืœื ื•,
02:59
where everything seems to happen right now
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ืฉื ื›ืœ ื“ื‘ืจ ื ืจืื” ืฉืžืชืจื—ืฉ ืขื›ืฉื™ื•
03:01
and we can only think out past the next tweet or timeline post,
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ื•ืื ื—ื ื• ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘ ืจืง ืขื“ ืœืฆื™ื•ืฅ ื”ื‘ื ืื• ืคื•ืกื˜ ื‘ืงื• ื”ื–ืžืŸ,
03:06
we get hyper-reactionary.
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ืื ื—ื ื• ืžื’ื™ื‘ื™ื ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžื“ื™
03:08
So what do we do?
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ืื– ืžื” ืื ื—ื ื• ืขื•ืฉื™ื?
03:10
We take people who are fleeing their war-torn country,
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ืื ื—ื ื• ืœื•ืงื—ื™ื ืื ืฉื™ื ืฉื‘ื•ืจื—ื™ื ืžืื–ื•ืจื™ื ืงืจื•ืขื™ ืžืœื—ืžื”,
03:13
and we go after them.
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ื•ืื ื—ื ื• ืจื•ื“ืคื™ื ืื—ืจื™ื”ื.
03:15
We take low-level drug offenders, and we put them away for life.
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ืื ื—ื ื• ืœื•ืงื—ื™ื ืžืฉืชืžืฉื™ ืกืžื™ื ื‘ืจืžื” ื ืžื•ื›ื”, ื•ืื ื—ื ื• ืฉืžื™ื ืื•ืชื ื‘ื›ืœื ืœื›ืœ ื”ื—ื™ื™ื.
03:18
And then we build McMansions without even thinking
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ื•ืื– ืื ื—ื ื• ื‘ื•ื ื™ื ืฉื™ื›ื•ื ื™ ืขื ืง, ืžื‘ืœื™ ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘
03:21
about how people are going to get between them and their job.
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ืขืœ ืื™ืš ืื ืฉื™ื ื™ื’ื™ืขื• ืžื”ื ืœืขื‘ื•ื“ื”.
03:24
It's a quick buck.
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ื–ื” ื›ืกืฃ ืžื”ื™ืจ.
03:26
Now, the reality is, for a lot of these problems,
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ืขื›ืฉื™ื•, ื”ืžืฆื™ืื•ืช ื”ื™ื, ืฉืœื”ืจื‘ื” ืžื”ื‘ืขื™ื•ืช ื”ืืœื•, ื™ืฉ ื›ืžื” ืชื™ืงื•ื ื™ื ื˜ื›ื ื™ื™ื,
03:28
there are some technical fixes,
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03:31
a lot of them.
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ื”ืจื‘ื” ืžื”ื.
03:32
I call these technical fixes sandbag strategies.
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ืื ื™ ืงื•ืจื ืœืชื™ืงื•ื ื™ื ื”ื˜ื›ื ื™ื™ื ื”ืืœื” ืืกื˜ืจื˜ื’ื™ื•ืช ืฉืงื™ ื—ื•ืœ.
03:36
So you know there's a storm coming,
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ืื– ืืชื ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื ืฉื™ืฉ ืกืขืจื” ืžืชืงืจื‘ืช,
03:38
the levee is broken, no one's put any money into it,
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ื”ืกื›ืจ ื ืคืจืฅ, ืืฃ ืื—ื“ ืœื ืฉื ื›ืกืฃ ืขืœ ื–ื”,
03:41
you surround your home with sandbags.
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ืืชื ืžืงื™ืคื™ื ืืช ื”ื‘ื™ืช ื‘ืฉืงื™ ื—ื•ืœ.
03:42
And guess what? It works.
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ื•ื ื—ืฉื• ืžื”? ื–ื” ืขื•ื‘ื“.
03:46
Storm goes away, the water level goes down,
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ื”ืกืขืจื” ืขื•ื‘ืจืช, ื”ืžื™ื ื™ื•ืจื“ื™ื, ืืชื ื ืคื˜ืจื™ื ืžืฉืงื™ ื”ื—ื•ืœ,
03:48
you get rid of the sandbags,
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03:49
and you do this storm after storm after storm.
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ื•ื™ืฉ ืœื›ื ืกืขืจื” ืื—ืจื™ ืกืขืจื” ืื—ืจื™ ืกืขืจื”.
03:53
And here's the insidious thing.
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ื•ืคื” ื ื›ื ืก ื”ื—ืœืง ื”ืขืจืžื•ืžื™.
03:55
A sandbag strategy
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ืืกื˜ืจื˜ื’ื™ื™ืช ืฉืงื™ ื—ื•ืœ
03:57
can get you reelected.
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ื™ื›ื•ืœื” ืœื’ืจื•ื ืœื›ื ืœื”ื™ื‘ื—ืจ ืžื—ื“ืฉ.
04:00
A sandbag strategy
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ืืกื˜ืจื˜ื’ื™ื™ืช ืฉืงื™ ื—ื•ืœ
04:01
can help you make your quarterly numbers.
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ื™ื›ื•ืœื” ืœืขื–ื•ืจ ืœื›ื ืœืขืžื•ื“ ื‘ืžื˜ืจื•ืช ื”ืจื‘ืขื•ื ื™ื•ืช ืฉืœื›ื.
04:06
Now, if we want to move forward
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ืขื›ืฉื™ื•, ืื ืื ื—ื ื• ืจื•ืฆื™ื ืœื ื•ืข ืงื“ื™ืžื”,
04:09
into a different future than the one we have right now,
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ืœืขืชื™ื“ ืฉื•ื ื” ืžื–ื” ืฉื™ืฉ ืœื ื• ืขื›ืฉื™ื•,
04:11
because I don't think we've hit --
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ื›ื™ ืื ื™ ืœื ื—ื•ืฉื‘ ืฉืคื’ืขื ื• --
04:13
2016 is not peak civilization.
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2016 ื”ื™ื ืœื ืฉื™ื ื”ืฆื™ื‘ื™ืœื™ื–ืฆื™ื”.
04:15
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
04:17
There's some more we can do.
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ื™ืฉ ืœื ื• ืœืืŸ ืœื”ืชืงื“ื.
04:19
But my argument is that unless we shift our mental models and our mental maps
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ืื‘ืœ ื”ื˜ื™ืขื•ืŸ ืฉืœื™ ื”ื•ื ืฉืื ืœื ื ืฉื ื” ืืช ื“ืคื•ืกื™ ื•ืžืคื•ืช ื”ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื” ืฉืœื ื•
04:23
on how we think about the short,
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ื”ืขื•ืกืงื™ื ื‘ื˜ื•ื•ื— ื”ืงืฆืจ,
04:26
it's not going to happen.
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ื–ื” ืœื ืขื•ืžื“ ืœืงืจื•ืช.
04:27
So what I've developed is something called "longpath,"
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ืื– ืคื™ืชื—ืชื™ ืžืฉื”ื• ืฉื ืงืจื "ื”ื ืชื™ื‘ ื”ืืจื•ืš,"
04:30
and it's a practice.
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ื•ื–ื• ืฉื™ื˜ื”.
04:32
And longpath isn't a kind of one-and-done exercise.
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ื•ื”ื ืชื™ื‘ ื”ืืจื•ืš ื”ื•ื ืœื ืกื•ื’ ืฉืœ ืชืจื’ื™ืœ ื—ื“ ืคืขืžื™.
04:36
I'm sure everyone here at some point has done an off-site
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ืื ื™ ื‘ื˜ื•ื— ืฉื›ื•ืœื ืคื” ื‘ื ืงื•ื“ื” ืžืกื•ื™ื™ืžืช ื”ื™ื• ืžื—ื•ืฅ ืœื”ืชืจื—ืฉื•ืช
04:39
with a lot of Post-It notes and whiteboards,
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ืขื ื”ืจื‘ื” ืคืชืงืื•ืช ืคื•ืกื˜ ืื™ื˜ ื•ืœื•ื—ื•ืช ืžื—ื™ืงื™ื,
04:41
and you do --
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ื•ืืชื ืื•ืžืจื™ื --
04:44
no offense to the consultants in here who do that --
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ื‘ืœื™ ืœื”ืขืœื™ื‘ ืืช ื”ื™ื•ืขืฆื™ื ืคื” ืฉืขื•ืฉื™ื ืืช ื–ื” --
04:46
and you do a long-term plan,
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ื•ืืชื ืขื•ืฉื™ื ืชื›ื ื•ืŸ ืœื˜ื•ื•ื— ืืจื•ืš,
04:48
and then two weeks later, everyone forgets about it.
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ื•ืื– ืฉื‘ื•ืขื™ื™ื ืžืื•ื—ืจ ื™ื•ืชืจ, ื›ื•ืœื ืฉื•ื›ื—ื™ื ืžื–ื”.
04:52
Right? Or a week later. If you're lucky, three months.
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ื ื›ื•ืŸ? ืื• ืฉื‘ื•ืข ืžืื•ื—ืจ ื™ื•ืชืจ. ืื ื™ืฉ ืœื›ื ืžื–ืœ, ืฉืœื•ืฉื” ื—ื•ื“ืฉื™ื.
04:56
It's a practice because it's not necessarily a thing that you do.
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ื•ื–ื” ืงื•ืจื” ืœื ื‘ื”ื›ืจื— ื‘ื’ืœืœ ืžืฉื”ื• ืฉืืชื ืขื•ืฉื™ื,
05:00
It's a process where you have to revisit different ways of thinking
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ื–ื” ืชื”ืœื™ืš ื‘ื• ืืชื ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ืœืฉืงื•ืœ ืžื—ื“ืฉ ื“ืจื›ื™ื ืฉื•ื ื•ืช ืœื—ืฉื™ื‘ื”
05:04
for every major decision that you're working on.
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ืœื›ืœ ื”ื—ืœื˜ื” ืžืฉืžืขื•ืชื™ืช ืฉืืชื ืขื•ื‘ื“ื™ื ืขืœื™ื”.
05:06
So I want to go through those three ways of thinking.
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ืื– ืื ื™ ืจื•ืฆื” ืœืขื‘ื•ืจ ืขืœ ืฉืœื•ืฉ ื“ืจื›ื™ ื”ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื” ื”ืืœื•.
05:09
So the first: transgenerational thinking.
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ืื– ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื”, ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื” ื‘ื™ืŸ-ื“ื•ืจื™ืช.
05:13
I love the philosophers:
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ืื ื™ ืื•ื”ื‘ ืืช ื”ืคื™ืœื•ืกื•ืคื™ื:
05:15
Plato, Socrates, Habermas, Heidegger.
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ืืœืคื˜ื•ืŸ, ืกื•ืงืจื˜ืก, ื”ื‘ืจืžืก, ื”ื™ื™ื“ื’ืจ.
05:17
I was raised on them.
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ื’ื“ืœืชื™ ืขืœื™ื”ื.
05:19
But they all did one thing
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ืื‘ืœ ื›ื•ืœื ืขืฉื• ื“ื‘ืจ ืื—ื“,
05:21
that didn't actually seem like a big deal
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ืฉืœื ื ืจืื” ืœืžืขืฉื” ื›ืžื• ืขื ื™ื™ืŸ ื’ื“ื•ืœ
05:23
until I really started kind of looking into this.
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ืขื“ ืฉื‘ืืžืช ื”ืชื—ืœืชื™ ืœื‘ื—ื•ืŸ ืืช ื–ื”.
05:26
And they all took,
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ื”ื ื›ื•ืœื ืœืงื—ื•,
05:28
as a unit of measure for their entire reality
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ื›ื™ื—ื™ื“ืช ืžื™ื“ื” ืœื›ืœ ื”ืžืฆื™ืื•ืช ืฉืœื”ื
05:30
of what it meant to be virtuous and good,
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ืฉืœ ืžื” ื–ื” ืื•ืžืจ ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืžื•ืกืจื™ ื•ื˜ื•ื‘,
05:33
the single lifespan,
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ืื•ืจืš ื—ื™ื™ื ืฉืœ ืื“ื ื™ื—ื™ื“,
05:35
from birth to death.
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ืžืœื™ื“ื” ืขื“ ืžื•ื•ืช.
05:37
But here's a problem with these issues:
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ืื‘ืœ ื™ืฉ ื‘ืขื™ื” ืขื ื”ื ื•ืฉืื™ื ื”ืืœื”:
05:39
they stack up on top of us,
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ื”ื ื ืขืจืžื™ื ืขืœื™ื ื•,
05:40
because the only way we know how to do something good in the world
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ื›ื™ ื”ื“ืจืš ื”ื™ื—ื™ื“ื” ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื ืื™ืš ืœืขืฉื•ืช ืžืฉื”ื• ื˜ื•ื‘ ื‘ืขื•ืœื
ื–ื” ืื ืื ื—ื ื• ืขื•ืฉื™ื ืืช ื–ื” ื‘ื™ืŸ ื”ืœื™ื“ื” ืœืžื•ื•ืช ืฉืœื ื•.
05:44
is if we do it between our birth and our death.
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05:46
That's what we're programmed to do.
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ื–ื” ืžื” ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ืžืชื•ื›ื ืชื™ื ืœืขืฉื•ืช.
ืื ืชืกืชื›ืœื• ืขืœ ืกืคืจื™ ื”ืขื–ืจื” ื”ืขืฆืžื™ืช ื‘ื›ืœ ื—ื ื•ืช ืกืคืจื™ื,
05:48
If you go to the self-help section in any bookstore,
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05:50
it's all about you.
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ื›ื•ืœื ืขื•ืกืงื™ื ื‘ื›ื.
05:53
Which is great,
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ืฉื–ื” ืžืขื•ืœื”,
05:55
unless you're dealing with some of these major issues.
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ืืœื ืื ืืชื ืžืชืžื•ื“ื“ื™ื ืขื ื›ืžื” ืžื”ื ื•ืฉืื™ื ื”ื’ื“ื•ืœื™ื.
05:59
And so with transgenerational thinking,
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ื•ื›ืš, ืขื ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื” ื—ื•ืฆื” ื“ื•ืจื•ืช,
06:03
which is really kind of transgenerational ethics,
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ืฉื”ื™ื ื‘ืืžืช ืกื•ื’ ืฉืœ ืืชื™ืงื” ื—ื•ืฆื” ื“ื•ืจื•ืช,
06:05
you're able to expand how you think about these problems,
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ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœื”ืจื—ื™ื‘ ืืช ื”ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื” ืฉืœื›ื ื‘ื ื•ื’ืข ืœื‘ืขื™ื•ืช ื”ืืœื•,
06:09
what is your role in helping to solve them.
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ื•ืžื” ื”ืชืคืงื™ื“ ืฉืœื›ื ื‘ืคืชืจื•ื ืŸ.
06:13
Now, this isn't something that just has to be done at the Security Council chamber.
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ืขื›ืฉื™ื•, ื–ื” ืœื ืžืฉื”ื• ืฉืจืง ืฆืจื™ืš ืœื”ื™ืขืฉื•ืช ื‘ืžื•ืขืฆืช ื”ื‘ื˜ื—ื•ืŸ.
06:18
It's something that you can do in a very kind of personal way.
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ื–ื” ืžืฉื”ื• ืฉืืชื ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœืขืฉื•ืช ื‘ื“ืจืš ืžืื•ื“ ืื™ืฉื™ืช.
06:21
So every once in a while, if I'm lucky, my wife and I like to go out to dinner,
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ืื– ืžื“ื™ ืคืขื, ืื ื™ืฉ ืœื™ ืžื–ืœ, ืืฉืชื™ ื•ืื ื™ ืื•ื”ื‘ื™ื ืœืฆืืช ืœืืจื•ื—ืช ืขืจื‘,
06:26
and we have three children under the age of seven.
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ื•ื™ืฉ ืœื ื• ืฉืœื•ืฉื” ื™ืœื“ื™ื ืชื—ืช ื’ื™ืœ ืฉื‘ืข.
06:29
So you can imagine it's a very peaceful, quiet meal.
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ืื– ืืชื ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœื“ืžื™ื™ืŸ ืฉื–ื• ืืจื•ื—ื” ืจื’ื•ืขื” ื•ืฉืงื˜ื”.
06:31
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
06:32
So we sit down and literally all I want to do is just eat and chill,
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ืื– ืื ื—ื ื• ื™ื•ืฉื‘ื™ื ื•ืžืžืฉ ื›ืœ ืžื” ืฉืื ื™ ืจื•ืฆื” ื–ื” ืจืง ืœืื›ื•ืœ ื•ืœื”ื™ืจื’ืข,
06:38
and my kids have a completely and totally different idea
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ื•ืœื™ืœื“ื™ื ืฉืœื™ ื™ืฉ ืจืขื™ื•ืŸ ืฉื•ื ื” ืœื’ืžืจื™
ืฉืœ ืžื” ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ื”ื•ืœื›ื™ื ืœืขืฉื•ืช.
06:41
of what we're going to be doing.
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06:42
And so my first idea
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ื•ื›ืš ื”ืžื—ืฉื‘ื” ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื” ื”ืขื•ืœื” ื‘ื“ืขืชื™
06:45
is my sandbag strategy, right?
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ื”ื™ื ืืกื˜ืจื˜ื’ื™ื™ืช ืฉืงื™ ื”ื—ื•ืœ ืฉืœื™, ื ื›ื•ืŸ?
06:47
It's to go into my pocket and take out the iPhone
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ืœื”ื•ืฆื™ื ืืช ื”ืื™ื™ืคื•ืŸ ืžื”ื›ื™ืก ืฉืœื™
06:49
and give them "Frozen"
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ื•ืœืชืช ืœื”ื ืืช ืคืจื•ื–ืŸ
06:50
or some other bestselling game thing.
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ืื• ืžืฉื—ืง ืื˜ืจืงื˜ื™ื‘ื™ ืื—ืจ.
06:55
And then I stop
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ื•ืื– ืื ื™ ืขื•ืฆืจ
06:58
and I have to kind of put on this transgenerational thinking cap.
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ื•ืื ื™ ืฆืจื™ืš ืœืฉื™ื ืืช ื›ื•ื‘ืข ื”ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื” ื—ื•ืฆืช ื”ื“ื•ืจื•ืช.
07:03
I don't do this in the restaurant, because it would be bizarre,
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ืื ื™ ืœื ืขื•ืฉื” ืืช ื–ื” ื‘ืžืกืขื“ื”, ื›ื™ ื–ื” ื™ื”ื™ื” ืžื•ื–ืจ,
07:06
but I have to --
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ืื‘ืœ ืื ื™ ื—ื™ื™ื‘ --
07:07
I did it once, and that's how I learned it was bizarre.
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ืขืฉื™ืชื™ ืืช ื–ื” ืคืขื ืื—ืช, ื•ื›ืš ืœืžื“ืชื™ ืฉื–ื” ืžื•ื–ืจ.
07:10
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
07:11
And you have to kind of think, "OK, I can do this."
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ื•ืืชื ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘, "ืื•ืงื™ื™, ืื ื™ ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœืขืฉื•ืช ืืช ื–ื”."
07:16
But what is this teaching them?
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ืื‘ืœ ืžื” ื–ื” ืžืœืžื“ ืื•ืชื?
07:19
So what does it mean if I actually bring some paper
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ืื– ืžื” ื–ื” ืื•ืžืจ ืื ื ื‘ื™ื ื“ืคื™ื
07:21
or engage with them in conversation?
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ืื• ื ืคืชื— ื‘ืฉื™ื—ื” ืื™ืชื?
07:23
It's hard. It's not easy, and I'm making this very personal.
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ื–ื” ืงืฉื”. ื–ื” ืœื ืงืœ, ื•ืื ื™ ืขื•ืฉื” ืืช ื–ื” ืžืžืฉ ืื™ืฉื™.
07:26
It's actually more traumatic
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ื–ื” ืœืžืขืฉื” ื™ื•ืชืจ ื˜ืจืื•ืžื˜ื™
07:27
than some of the big issues that I work on in the world --
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ืžื›ืžื” ืžื”ื ื•ืฉืื™ื ื”ื’ื“ื•ืœื™ื ืฉืื ื™ ืขื•ื‘ื“ ืขืœื™ื”ื ื‘ืขื•ืœื --
ืœื‘ื“ืจ ืืช ื”ื™ืœื“ื™ื ืฉืœื™ ื‘ืืจื•ื—ืช ืขืจื‘.
07:30
entertaining my kids at dinner.
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07:33
But what it does is it connects them here in the present with me,
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ืื‘ืœ ืžื” ืฉื–ื” ืขื•ืฉื”, ื–ื” ืžื—ื‘ืจ ืื•ืชื ืœื”ื•ื•ื” ืื™ืชื™,
07:36
but it also --
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ืื‘ืœ ื–ื” ื’ื --
07:37
and this is the crux of transgenerational thinking ethics --
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ื•ื–ื” ื”ืขื ื™ื™ืŸ ืฉืœ ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื” ืืชื™ืช ื—ื•ืฆื” ื“ื•ืจื•ืช --
07:41
it sets them up to how they're going to interact with their kids
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ื–ื” ืžื›ื™ืŸ ืื•ืชื ืœื“ืจืš ื‘ื” ื”ื ื™ืชืงืฉืจื• ืขื ื”ื™ืœื“ื™ื ืฉืœื”ื,
07:44
and their kids and their kids.
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ื•ื”ื™ืœื“ื™ื ืฉืœื”ื ื•ื”ื™ืœื“ื™ื ืฉืœื”ื.
07:48
Second, futures thinking.
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ืฉื ื™ืช, ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื” ืขืชื™ื“ื™ืช.
07:50
When we think about the future,
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ื›ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ื—ื•ืฉื‘ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ืขืชื™ื“,
07:52
10, 15 years out,
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ื‘ืขื•ื“ 10, 15 ืฉื ื”,
07:54
give me a vision of what the future is.
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ืชื ื• ืœื™ ื—ื–ื•ืŸ ืฉืœ ืžื” ื”ื•ื ื”ืขืชื™ื“.
07:57
You don't have to give it to me, but think in your head.
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ืืชื ืœื ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ืœืชืช ืœื™ ืืช ื–ื”, ืื‘ืœ ืชื—ืฉื‘ื• ื‘ืจืืฉ.
08:00
And what you're probably going to see
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ื•ืžื” ืฉื›ื ืจืื” ืชืจืื•
08:02
is the dominant cultural lens
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ื–ื” ืืช ื”ืขื“ืฉื” ื”ืชืจื‘ื•ืชื™ืช ื”ื“ื•ืžื™ื ื ื˜ื™ืช
08:04
that dominates our thinking about the future right now:
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ืฉืฉื•ืœื˜ืช ื‘ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื” ืฉืœื ื• ื‘ื ื•ื’ืข ืœืขืชื™ื“ ืžืžืฉ ืขื›ืฉื™ื•:
08:07
technology.
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ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื”.
08:09
So when we think about the problems,
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ืื– ื›ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ื—ื•ืฉื‘ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื‘ืขื™ื•ืช,
08:11
we always put it through a technological lens,
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ืื ื—ื ื• ืชืžื™ื“ ืžืขื‘ื™ืจื™ื ืื•ืชืŸ ื“ืจืš ืขื“ืฉื” ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ืช,
08:13
a tech-centric, a techno-utopia, and there's nothing wrong with that,
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ืžืžื•ืงื“ืช ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ืช, ืื•ื˜ื•ืคื™ื” ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ืช, ื•ืื™ืŸ ืฉื•ื ื“ื‘ืจ ืจืข ื‘ื–ื”,
08:16
but it's something that we have to really think deeply about
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ืื‘ืœ ื–ื” ืžืฉื”ื• ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ื‘ืืžืช ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘ ืœืขื•ืžืง ืขืœื™ื•,
08:20
if we're going to move on these major issues,
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ืื ืจื•ืฆื™ื ืœื”ืชืงื“ื ื‘ื ื•ืฉืื™ื ื”ื—ืฉื•ื‘ื™ื ื”ืืœื”,
08:23
because it wasn't always like this. Right?
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ื›ื™ ื–ื” ืœื ืชืžื™ื“ ื”ื™ื” ื›ื›ื”. ื ื›ื•ืŸ?
08:25
The ancients had their way of thinking
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ืื ืฉื™ื ื‘ืขื‘ืจ ื”ืจื—ื•ืง ื—ืฉื‘ื•
08:28
about what the future was.
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ืขืœ ืื™ืš ื™ื™ืจืื” ื”ืขืชื™ื“.
08:31
The Church definitely had their idea of what the future could be,
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ืœื›ื ืกื™ื” ื‘ื”ื—ืœื˜ ื”ื™ื” ืจืขื™ื•ืŸ ืขืœ ืื™ืš ื™ื™ืจืื” ื”ืขืชื™ื“.
08:36
and you could actually pay your way into that future. Right?
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ื•ืืคืฉืจ ืœืฉืœื ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ื™ื›ื ืก ืœืขืชื™ื“ ื”ื–ื”. ื ื›ื•ืŸ?
08:39
And luckily for humanity,
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ื•ืœืžื–ืœื” ืฉืœ ื”ืื ื•ืฉื•ืช,
08:41
we got the scientific revolution.
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ืขื‘ืจื ื• ืืช ื”ืžื”ืคื›ื” ื”ืžื“ืขื™ืช.
08:43
From there, we got the technology,
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ืžืฉื, ืงื™ื‘ืœื ื• ืืช ื”ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื”,
08:45
but what has happened --
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ืื‘ืœ ืžื” ืฉืงืจื” --
08:46
And by the way, this is not a critique.
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ื•ื“ืจืš ืื’ื‘, ื–ื• ืœื ื‘ื™ืงื•ืจืช.
08:50
I love technology.
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ืื ื™ ืื•ื”ื‘ ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื”.
08:52
Everything in my house talks back to me,
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ื›ืœ ื”ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ื‘ื‘ื™ืช ืฉืœื™ ืžื“ื‘ืจื™ื ืืœื™,
08:54
from my children to my speakers to everything.
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ืžื”ื™ืœื“ื™ื ืฉืœื™ ืœืจืžืงื•ืœื™ื ืฉืœื™ ืœื”ื›ืœ.
08:56
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
08:59
But we've abdicated the future from the high priests in Rome
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ืื‘ืœ ื”ืขื‘ืจื ื• ืืช ื”ืกืžื›ื•ืช ืขืœ ื”ืขืชื™ื“ ืฉืœื ื• ืžื”ื›ื•ื”ืŸ ื”ื’ื“ื•ืœ ืฉืœื ื• ื‘ืจื•ืžื
09:05
to the high priests of Silicon Valley.
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ืœื›ื•ื”ืŸ ื”ื’ื“ื•ืœ ื‘ืขืžืง ื”ืกื™ืœื™ืงื•ืŸ.
09:09
So when we think, well, how are we going to deal with climate
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ืื– ื›ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ื—ื•ืฉื‘ื™ื ืื™ืš ื ืชืžื•ื“ื“ ืขื ื”ืืงืœื™ื
09:13
or with poverty or homelessness,
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ืื• ืขื ื”ืขื•ื ื™ ืื• ื”ื”ื•ืžืœืกื™ื,
09:14
our first reaction is to think about it through a technology lens.
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ื”ืชื’ื•ื‘ื” ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื” ืฉืœื ื• ื”ื™ื ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘ ืขืœ ื–ื” ื“ืจืš ืขื“ืฉื” ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ืช.
09:18
And look, I'm not advocating that we go to this guy.
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ื•ืื ื™ ืœื ื˜ื•ืขืŸ ืฉื ืœืš ืœืื“ื ื”ื–ื”.
09:23
I love Joel, don't get me wrong,
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ืื ื™ ืื•ื”ื‘ ืืช ื’'ื•ืืœ, ืืœ ืชื˜ืขื•,
09:26
but I'm not saying we go to Joel.
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ืื‘ืœ ืื ื™ ืœื ืื•ืžืจ ืฉื ืœืš ืœื’'ื•ืืœ.
09:27
What I'm saying is we have to rethink
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ืื ื™ ืื•ืžืจ ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘ ืžื—ื“ืฉ
09:29
our base assumption about only looking at the future in one way,
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ืขืœ ื”ื ื—ื•ืช ื”ื‘ืกื™ืก ืฉืœื ื• ื‘ื ื•ื’ืข ืœื”ืกืชื›ืœื•ืช ืขืœ ื”ืขืชื™ื“ ืจืง ื‘ื“ืจืš ืื—ืช,
09:34
only looking at it through the dominant lens.
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ืœื”ื‘ื™ื˜ ืขืœื™ื• ืจืง ื“ืจืš ื”ืขื“ืฉื” ื”ื“ื•ืžื™ื ื ื˜ื™ืช.
09:36
Because our problems are so big and so vast
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ื›ื™ ื”ื‘ืขื™ื•ืช ืฉืœื ื• ื”ืŸ ื›ืœ ื›ืš ื’ื“ื•ืœื•ืช ื•ืจื—ื‘ื•ืช,
09:38
that we need to open ourselves up.
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ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ืœืคืชื•ื— ืืช ืขืฆืžื ื•.
09:41
So that's why I do everything in my power not to talk about the future.
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ืœื›ืŸ ืื ื™ ืขื•ืฉื” ื›ืœ ืฉื‘ื›ื•ื—ื™ ืœื ืœื“ื‘ืจ ืขืœ ื”ืขืชื™ื“.
09:46
I talk about futures.
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ืื ื™ ืžื“ื‘ืจ ืขืœ ืขืชื™ื“ื™ื.
09:48
It opens the conversation again.
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ื–ื” ืคื•ืชื— ืืช ื”ืฉื™ื— ื—ื–ืจื”.
09:50
So when you're sitting and thinking
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ืื– ื›ืฉืืชื ื™ื•ืฉื‘ื™ื ื•ื—ื•ืฉื‘ื™ื
09:52
about how do we move forward on this major issue --
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ืขืœ ืื™ืš ืื ื—ื ื• ื ืขื™ื ืงื“ื™ืžื” ื‘ื‘ืขื™ื” ื”ื—ืฉื•ื‘ื” ื”ื–ื• --
09:56
it could be at home,
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ื–ื” ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ื‘ื‘ื™ืช,
09:57
it could be at work,
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ื–ื” ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืขื‘ื•ื“ื”,
09:59
it could be again on the global stage --
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ื–ื” ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืฉื•ื‘ ื‘ื‘ืžื” ื”ื’ืœื•ื‘ืœื™ืช --
10:02
don't cut yourself off from thinking about something beyond technology as a fix
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ืืœ ืชืžื ืขื• ืžืขืฆืžื›ื ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘ ืขืœ ืžืฉื”ื• ืžืขื‘ืจ ืœื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื” ื›ืชื™ืงื•ืŸ,
10:07
because we're more concerned about technological evolution right now
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ื›ื™ ื›ื™ื•ื ืื ื—ื ื• ืžื•ื“ืื’ื™ื ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžื”ื”ืชืคืชื—ื•ืช ื”ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ืช,
10:10
than we are about moral evolution.
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ืžืืฉืจ ืžื”ื”ืชืคืชื—ื•ืช ื”ืžื•ืกืจื™ืช.
10:12
And unless we fix for that,
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ื•ืื ืœื ื ืชืงืŸ ืืช ื–ื”,
10:14
we're not going to be able to get out of short-termism
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ืœื ื ืฆืœื™ื— ืœืฆืืช ืžื—ืฉื™ื‘ื” ืœื˜ื•ื•ื— ืงืฆืจ
10:17
and get to where we want to be.
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ื•ืœื”ื’ื™ืข ืœืžืงื•ื ืืœื™ื• ืื ื—ื ื• ืจื•ืฆื™ื ืœื”ื’ื™ืข.
10:19
The final, telos thinking. This comes from the Greek root.
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ื•ืื—ืจื•ื ื”, ื”ืžื˜ืจื” ื”ืกื•ืคื™ืช. ื–ื” ืžื’ื™ืข ืžืžืงื•ืจ ื™ื•ื•ื ื™.
10:22
Ultimate aim and ultimate purpose.
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ื”ื›ื™ื•ื•ืŸ ื”ืื•ืœื˜ื™ืžื˜ื™ื‘ื™ ื•ื”ืžื˜ืจื” ื”ืื•ืœื˜ื™ืžื˜ื™ื‘ื™ืช.
10:24
And it's really asking one question:
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ื•ื–ื” ืื•ืžืจ ืœืฉืื•ืœ ืฉืืœื” ืื—ืช:
10:27
to what end?
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ืœืื™ื–ื• ืžื˜ืจื”?
10:30
When was the last time you asked yourself: To what end?
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ืžืชื™ ื‘ืคืขื ื”ืื—ืจื•ื ื” ืฉืืœืชื ืืช ืขืฆืžื›ื: ืœืื™ื–ื• ืžื˜ืจื”?
10:33
And when you asked yourself that, how far out did you go?
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ื•ื›ืฉืฉืืœืชื ืืช ืขืฆืžื›ื ืืช ื–ื”, ื›ืžื” ืจื—ื•ืง ื”ื’ืขืชื?
10:37
Because long isn't long enough anymore.
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ื›ื™ ืืจื•ืš ื›ื‘ืจ ืื™ื ื• ืžืกืคื™ืง ืืจื•ืš.
10:41
Three, five years doesn't cut it.
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ืฉืœื•ืฉ, ื—ืžืฉ ืฉื ื™ื ืœื ืžืกืคื™ืงื•ืช.
10:43
It's 30, 40, 50, 100 years.
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ืืœื 30, 40, 50, 100 ืฉื ื”.
10:46
In Homer's epic, "The Odyssey,"
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ื‘ืืคื•ืก ืฉืœ ื”ื•ืžืจื•ืก, "ื”ืื•ื“ื™ืกื™ืื”,"
10:48
Odysseus had the answer to his "what end."
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ืื•ื“ื™ืกืื•ืก ื”ื™ื” ืฆืจื™ืš ืœืขื ื•ืช ืœืขืฆืžื•: "ืœืื™ื–ื• ืžื˜ืจื”."
10:51
It was Ithaca.
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ื–ื• ื”ื™ืชื” ืื™ืชืงื”.
10:53
It was this bold vision of what he wanted --
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ื–ื” ื”ื™ื” ื”ื—ื–ื•ืŸ ื”ื ื•ืขื– ืฉืœ ืžื” ื”ื•ื ืจืฆื” --
10:55
to return to Penelope.
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ืœื—ื–ื•ืจ ืœืคื ืœื•ืคื”.
10:57
And I can tell you, because of the work that I'm doing,
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ื•ืื ื™ ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื”ื’ื™ื“ ืœื›ื, ื‘ื’ืœืœ ื”ืขื‘ื•ื“ื” ืฉืื ื™ ืขื•ืฉื”,
10:59
but also you know it intuitively -- we have lost our Ithaca.
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ืื‘ืœ ืืชื ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื ืืช ื–ื” ื’ื ื‘ืœื™ื‘ื›ื -- ืื™ื‘ื“ื ื• ืืช ืื™ืชืงื”.
11:02
We have lost our "to what end," so we stay on this hamster wheel.
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ืื™ื‘ื“ื ื• ืืช "ืžื” ื”ืžื˜ืจื”" ืฉืœื ื•, ืื– ืื ื—ื ื• ื ืฉืืจื™ื ืขืœ ื’ืœื’ืœ ื”ืื•ื’ืจื™ื.
11:06
And yes, we're trying to solve these problems,
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ื•ื›ืŸ, ืื ื—ื ื• ืžื ืกื™ื ืœืคืชื•ืจ ืืช ื”ื‘ืขื™ื•ืช ื”ืืœื•,
11:08
but what comes after we solve the problem?
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ืื‘ืœ ืžื” ืžื’ื™ืข ืื—ืจื™ ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ืคื•ืชืจื™ื ืืช ื”ื‘ืขื™ื•ืช?
11:11
And unless you define what comes after, people aren't going to move.
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ื•ืื ืœื ืชื’ื“ื™ืจื• ืžื” ืžื’ื™ืข ืื—ืจื™, ืื ืฉื™ื ืœื ื™ื–ื•ื–ื•.
11:16
The businesses -- this isn't just about business --
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ื”ืขืกืงื™ื -- ื–ื” ืœื ื ื•ื’ืข ืจืง ืœืขืกืงื™ื --
11:18
but the businesses that do consistently, who break out of short-termism
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ืื‘ืœ ื”ืขืกืงื™ื ืฉื™ื•ืฆืื™ื ื‘ืขืงื‘ื™ื•ืช ืžื”ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื” ืงืฆืจืช ื”ื˜ื•ื•ื—
11:22
not surprisingly are family-run businesses.
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ืœื ื‘ืžืคืชื™ืข, ื”ื ืขืกืงื™ื ืžืฉืคื—ืชื™ื™ื.
11:24
They're transgenerational. They're telos. They think about the futures.
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ื”ื ื—ื•ืฆื™ ื“ื•ืจื•ืช. ื”ื ืชืœื•ืก. ื”ื ื—ื•ืฉื‘ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ืขืชื™ื“ื™ื.
11:27
And this is an ad for Patek Philippe. They're 175 years old,
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ื•ื–ื• ืคืจืกื•ืžืช ืœืคื˜ืง ืคื™ืœื™ืค. ื”ื ื‘ื ื™ 175 ืฉื ื”,
11:31
and what's amazing is that they literally embody
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ื•ืžื” ืฉืžื“ื”ื™ื ื–ื” ืฉื”ื ืžืžืฉ ืžื’ืœืžื™ื
11:34
this kind of longpathian sense in their brand,
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ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื” ืœื˜ื•ื•ื— ืืจื•ืš ื›ื–ื• ื‘ืžื•ืชื’ ืฉืœื”ื,
11:37
because, by the way, you never actually own a Patek Philippe,
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ื•ื“ืจืš ืื’ื‘, ืืชื ืืฃ ืคืขื ืœื ื”ื‘ืขืœื™ื ืฉืœ ืคื˜ืง ืคื™ืœื™ืค,
11:40
and I definitely won't --
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ื•ืื ื™ ืžืžืฉ ืœื --
11:41
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
11:42
unless somebody wants to just throw 25,000 dollars on the stage.
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ืืœื ืื ืžื™ืฉื”ื• ืจื•ืฆื” ืœื–ืจื•ืง 25,000 ื“ื•ืœืจ ืขืœ ื”ื‘ืžื”.
11:45
You merely look after it for the next generation.
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ืืชื ืจืง ืฉื•ืžืจื™ื ืขืœื™ื• ืœื“ื•ืจ ื”ื‘ื.
11:50
So it's important that we remember,
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ืื– ื–ื” ื—ืฉื•ื‘ ืฉืชื–ื›ืจื•,
11:53
the future, we treat it like a noun.
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ื”ืขืชื™ื“, ืื ื—ื ื• ืžืชื™ื™ื—ืกื™ื ืืœื™ื• ื›ืฉื ืขืฆื.
11:56
It's not. It's a verb.
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ื–ื” ืœื, ื–ื” ืคื•ืขืœ.
11:58
It requires action.
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ื”ื•ื ื“ื•ืจืฉ ืคืขื•ืœื”.
11:59
It requires us to push into it.
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ื–ื” ื“ื•ืจืฉ ืžืื™ืชื ื• ืœื”ื™ื“ื—ืฃ ืœืชื•ื›ื•.
12:01
It's not this thing that washes over us.
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ื–ื” ืœื ืžืฉื”ื• ืฉืฉื•ื˜ืฃ ืื•ืชื ื•.
12:03
It's something that we actually have total control over.
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ื–ื” ืžืฉื”ื• ืฉื™ืฉ ืœื ื• ืฉืœื™ื˜ื” ืžืœืื” ืขืœื™ื•.
12:06
But in a short-term society, we end up feeling like we don't.
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ืื‘ืœ ื‘ื—ื‘ืจืช ื”ื˜ื•ื•ื— ื”ืงืฆืจ, ืื ื—ื ื• ืžืจื’ื™ืฉื™ื ื›ืื™ืœื• ืื™ืŸ ืœื ื•.
12:09
We feel like we're trapped.
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ืื ื—ื ื• ืžืจื’ื™ืฉื™ื ืœื›ื•ื“ื™ื.
12:10
We can push through that.
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ืื ื—ื ื• ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœื”ืชื ื’ื“ ืœื–ื”.
12:13
Now I'm getting more comfortable
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ืขื›ืฉื™ื• ื™ื•ืชืจ ื ื•ื— ืœื™
12:17
in the fact that at some point
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ืขื ื”ืขื•ื‘ื“ื” ืฉื‘ื ืงื•ื“ื” ืžืกื•ื™ื™ืžืช
12:20
in the inevitable future,
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ื‘ืขืชื™ื“ ื”ื‘ืœืชื™ ื ืžื ืข,
12:22
I will die.
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ืื ื™ ืืžื•ืช.
12:25
But because of these new ways of thinking and doing,
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ืื‘ืœ ื‘ื’ืœืœ ื›ืœ ื”ื“ืจื›ื™ื ื”ืืœื• ืฉืœ ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื” ื•ืขืฉื™ื™ื”,
12:29
both in the outside world and also with my family at home,
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ื’ื ื‘ืขื•ืœื ื”ื—ื™ืฆื•ื ื™ ื•ื’ื ื‘ืžืฉืคื—ื” ืฉืœื™ ื‘ื‘ื™ืช,
12:33
and what I'm leaving my kids, I get more comfortable in that fact.
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ื•ืžื” ืฉืื ื™ ืžืฉืื™ืจ ืœื™ืœื“ื™ื ืฉืœื™, ื™ื•ืชืจ ื ื•ื— ืœื™ ืขื ื”ืขื•ื‘ื“ื” ื”ื–ื•.
12:36
And it's something that a lot of us are really uncomfortable with,
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ื•ื–ื” ืžืฉื”ื• ืฉืœืจื‘ื™ื ืžืื™ืชื ื• ื‘ืืžืช ืœื ื ื•ื— ืื™ืชื•,
12:39
but I'm telling you,
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ืื‘ืœ ืื ื™ ืื•ืžืจ ืœื›ื,
12:41
think it through.
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ื—ืฉื‘ื• ืขืœ ื–ื”.
12:43
Apply this type of thinking and you can push yourself past
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ื™ื™ืฉืžื• ืกื•ื’ ื–ื” ืฉืœ ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื” ื•ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœื“ื—ื•ืฃ ืืช ืขืฆืžื›ื
12:45
what's inevitably very, very uncomfortable.
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ืžืขื‘ืจ ืœืื™ ื”ื ื•ื—ื•ืช ื”ื‘ืœืชื™ ื ืžื ืขืช.
12:47
And it all begins really with yourself asking this question:
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ื•ื›ืœ ื–ื” ืžืชื—ื™ืœ ื›ืฉืชืฉืืœื• ืืช ืขืฆืžื›ื:
12:52
What is your longpath?
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ืžื” ื”ืžืกืœื•ืœ ืœื˜ื•ื•ื— ืืจื•ืš ืฉืœื›ื?
12:55
But I ask you, when you ask yourself that
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ืื‘ืœ ืื ื™ ืฉื•ืืœ ืืชื›ื, ื›ืฉืืชื ืฉื•ืืœื™ื ืืช ืขืฆืžื›ื ืืช ื–ื”
12:58
now or tonight or behind a steering wheel
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ืขื›ืฉื™ื•, ืื• ื”ืœื™ืœื”, ืื• ืžืื—ื•ืจื™ ื”ื”ื’ื”,
13:00
or in the boardroom or the situation room:
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ืื• ื‘ื—ื“ืจ ื”ื™ืฉื™ื‘ื•ืช ืื• ื‘ื—ื“ืจ ื”ืžืฆื‘:
13:06
push past the longpath,
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ืขื‘ืจื• ืžืขื‘ืจ ืœื˜ื•ื•ื— ื”ืืจื•ืš,
13:08
quick, oh, what's my longpath the next three years or five years?
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"ืžื” ื”ืชื•ื›ื ื™ืช ืœื˜ื•ื•ื— ืืจื•ืš ืฉืœื™ ื‘ืฉืœื•ืฉ ืื• ื—ืžืฉ ืฉื ื™ื ื”ื‘ืื•ืช?"
13:11
Try and push past your own life if you can
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ื ืกื• ืœืขื‘ื•ืจ ืžืขื‘ืจ ืœื—ื™ื™ื ืฉืœ ืขืฆืžื›ื, ืื ืชื•ื›ืœื•,
13:15
because it makes you do things a little bit bigger
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ื›ื™ ื–ื” ื’ื•ืจื ืœื›ื ืœืขืฉื•ืช ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ืงืฆืช ื™ื•ืชืจ ื‘ื’ื“ื•ืœ
13:17
than you thought were possible.
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ืžืฉื—ืฉื‘ืชื ืฉืืคืฉืจ.
13:20
Yes, we have huge, huge problems out there.
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ื›ืŸ, ื™ืฉ ืœื ื• ื‘ืขื™ื•ืช ืžืžืฉ ืขืฆื•ืžื•ืช.
13:25
With this process, with this thinking,
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ืขื ื”ืชื”ืœื™ืš ื”ื–ื”, ืขื ื”ื—ืฉื™ื‘ื” ื”ื–ื•,
13:28
I think we can make a difference.
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ืื ื™ ื—ื•ืฉื‘ ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœื™ืฆื•ืจ ืฉื™ื ื•ื™.
13:31
I think you can make a difference,
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ืื ื™ ื—ื•ืฉื‘ ืฉืืชื ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœื™ืฆื•ืจ ืฉื™ื ื•ื™,
13:33
and I believe in you guys.
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ื•ืื ื™ ืžืืžื™ืŸ ื‘ื›ื.
13:35
Thank you.
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ืชื•ื“ื” ืœื›ื.
13:36
(Applause)
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(ืžื—ื™ืื•ืช ื›ืคื™ื™ื)
ืขืœ ืืชืจ ื–ื”

ืืชืจ ื–ื” ื™ืฆื™ื’ ื‘ืคื ื™ื›ื ืกืจื˜ื•ื ื™ YouTube ื”ืžื•ืขื™ืœื™ื ืœืœื™ืžื•ื“ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช. ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœืจืื•ืช ืฉื™ืขื•ืจื™ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืขื‘ืจื™ื ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืžื•ืจื™ื ืžื”ืฉื•ืจื” ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื” ืžืจื—ื‘ื™ ื”ืขื•ืœื. ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืฆื’ื•ืช ื‘ื›ืœ ื“ืฃ ื•ื™ื“ืื• ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ ืžืฉื. ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื’ื•ืœืœื•ืช ื‘ืกื ื›ืจื•ืŸ ืขื ื”ืคืขืœืช ื”ื•ื•ื™ื“ืื•. ืื ื™ืฉ ืœืš ื”ืขืจื•ืช ืื• ื‘ืงืฉื•ืช, ืื ื ืฆื•ืจ ืื™ืชื ื• ืงืฉืจ ื‘ืืžืฆืขื•ืช ื˜ื•ืคืก ื™ืฆื™ืจืช ืงืฉืจ ื–ื”.

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