How will we survive when the population hits 10 billion? | Charles C. Mann

翻译人员: Adam Lee 校对人员: Tianji (Homer) Li

How are we doing?

我们最近过得怎么样？

No, no, no, by that, I meant,

哦不，我的意思是，

how are we, homo sapiens "we" ...

最近，身为现代人的“我们”...

(Laughter)

（笑声）

doing as a species?

作为一个物种，过得怎么样？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Now the typical way to answer that question is this.

关于这个问题的回答， 很典型的一类就是，

You choose some measure of human physical well-being:

选择一些描述人们身体状况的词：

average longevity, average calories per day,

平均寿命，每天平均的食物摄入量，

average income, overall population, that sort of thing,

平均收入，总人口等等，

and draw a graph of its value over time.

然后画一个随时间变化的曲线。

In almost every case, you get the same result.

在几乎所有的情况下， 你得到的都是同样的结果。

The line skitters along at a low level for millennia,

在几千年的时间线上，变化 都是处于一个较低的水平，

then rockets up exponentially in the 19th and 20th century.

随后在19世纪和20世纪 以指数方式猛涨。

Or choose a measure of consumption:

或者以消耗量为单位：

consumption of energy, consumption of fresh water,

消耗了多少能源，用了多少水，

consumption of the world's photosynthesis,

消耗了多少光合作用，

and draw a graph of its value over time.

再画一个随时间变化的曲线。

In the same way, the line skitters along at a low level for millennia,

同样，时间线在几千年来 还是处于低值，且变化平缓，

then rockets up exponentially in the 19th and 20th century.

在19世纪与20世纪 以指数方式猛涨。

Biologists have a word for this: outbreak.

生物学家对此的解释是：生物爆炸。

An outbreak is when a population or species

生物爆炸指的就是一种物种的数量

exceeds the bounds of natural selection.

超出了自然界所能承受的范围。

Natural selection ordinarily keeps populations and species

通常来说，自然选择在大致范围内

within roughly defined limits.

控制了人口和物种的数量。

Pests, parasites, lack of resources prevent them from expanding too much.

害虫，寄生虫，资源缺乏等 因素，导致它们无法过度繁殖。

But every now and then, a species escapes its bounds.

但偶尔，一些物种 也会突破自身的边界。

Crown-of-thorns starfish in the Indian Ocean,

比如印度洋的棘冠海星，

zebra mussels in the Great Lakes, spruce budworm here in Canada.

北美五大湖的斑马贻贝， 加拿大的云杉蚜虫。

Populations explode, a hundredfold, a thousandfold,

这些生物数量是呈百倍，千倍，

a millionfold.

甚至是万倍增长的。

So here's a fundamental lesson from biology:

下面是一个生物学中普遍的教训：

outbreaks in nature don't end well.

自然界中的生物爆炸 通常没什么好结果。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Put a couple of protozoa into a petri dish full of nutrient goo.

把几种单细胞生物放入 一个有营养物质的培养皿中，

In their natural habitat, soil or water, their environment constrains them.

在它们的自然环境中，土壤 或水分等因素限制了它们的繁衍。

In the petri dish, they have an ocean of breakfast

而在培养皿中，它们营养充足，

and no natural enemies.

并且没有天敌。

They eat and reproduce, eat and reproduce,

它们不断地摄入与繁殖，

until bang, they hit the edge of the petri dish,

直到有一天，它们撑爆了培养皿，

at which point they either drown in their own waste,

只能要么淹没在自己的排泄物中，

starve from lack of resources, or both.

要么因缺乏营养而饿死， 或者两者兼有之。

The outbreak ends, always, badly.

生物爆炸总是以糟糕的方式结束。

Now, from the viewpoint of biology,

从生物学的方面来看，

you and I are not fundamentally different than the protozoa in the petri dish.

你和我比起培养皿中的单细胞生物， 并没有什么本质上的区别，

We're not special.

我们并不特殊。

All the things that we, in our vanity, think make us different --

我们因虚荣心而认为， 思想使得我们与众不同，

art, science, technology, and so forth, they don't matter.

艺术，科技等等，但这些都不重要。

We're an outbreak species,

我们就是一种生物爆炸的物种，

we're going to hit the edge of the petri dish, simple as that.

我们就要撑爆我们的 培养皿了，就这么简单。

不过有个显而易见的问题： 这会是真的吗？

Well, the obvious question: Is this actually true?

Are we in fact doomed to hit the edge of the petri dish?

我们的人口真的会达到极限吗？

I'd like to set aside this question for a moment

我暂且先把这个问题放一放，

and ask you guys another one.

来问大家另一个问题。

If we are going to escape biology, how are we going to do it?

如果我们能够突破 生物爆炸的宿命，要怎么做呢？

In the year 2050,

到2050年，

there will be almost 10 billion people in the world,

地球上将会有100亿人口，

and all of those people will want the things that you and I want:

并且我们想要的东西， 这些人也都会需要：

nice cars, nice clothes, nice homes,

豪车，名牌衣服，大别墅，

the odd chunk of Toblerone.

奇奇怪怪的三角巧克力。

I mean, think of it: Toblerone for 10 billion people.

假设把三角巧克力分给100亿个人。

How are we going to do this?

要怎么实现呢？

How are we going to feed everybody, get water to everybody,

我们怎么给每个人 足够的食物，足够的水，

让每个人保持足够的体力 来应对最极端的气候变化？

provide power to everybody, avoid the worst impacts of climate change?

I'm a science journalist,

我是一名科学记者，

and I've been asking these questions to researchers for years,

这些年来我一直在 问专家们这些问题，

and in my experience, their answers fall into two broad categories,

以我的经验看来，他们的回答 大体可分为两大类，

which I call "wizards" and "prophets."

就是我说的“奇才”和“先知”。

Wizards, techno-whizzes,

奇才，也就是所谓的技术宅，

believe that science and technology, properly applied,

认为恰当地运用科技，

will let us produce our way out of our dilemmas.

会让我们找到摆脱困境的方法。

"Be smart, make more," they say.

他们会说：“机灵点，提高生产力。

那样的话，每个人都会生存下来。”

"That way, everyone can win."

Prophets believe close to the opposite.

先知们则认为恰恰相反。

They see the world as governed by fundamental ecological processes

他们认为世界有一种 基本的生态法则，

with limits that we transgress to our peril.

而我们必须遵守这个法则， 不然就要自食其果。

"Use less, conserve," they say.

他们会说“少用点，存起来，

"Otherwise, everybody's going to lose."

不然的话，每个人都得饿死。”

Wizards and prophets have been butting their heads together for decades,

几十年来，奇才与先知的 观点一直处于对立的状态，

but they both believe that technology is key to a successful future.

但他们都认为，科技是一把 通向美好明天的钥匙。

The trouble is, they envision different types of technology

分歧在于，他们所预想的科技和未来

and different types of futures.

都是不一样的。

Wizards envision a world of glittering, hyperefficient megacities

奇才们认为世界上都是 灯火辉煌的，高效率的大城市，

surrounded by vast tracts of untouched nature,

被周围广阔的原生态自然所包围着，

economies that have transitioned from atoms to bits,

经济体从实体经济转向数字经济，

dematerialized capitalist societies

非物质化的资本主义社会

that no longer depend on exploiting nature.

不再依赖于剥削自然。

Energy, to wizards, comes from compact nuclear plants;

在奇才们看来，能源来自于核电站，

food from low-footprint farms with ultraproductive,

来自于高生产力的小农场 生产的转基因食物，

genetically modified crops tended by robots;

并且这些庄稼都由机器人看管；

water from high-throughput desalination plants,

水源都来自于高流通量的 海水淡化工厂，

which means we no longer exploit rivers and aquifers.

这就意味着我们不再需要 利用河流与地下水。

Wizards envision all 10 billion of us

这些人假设把我们100亿人，

packed into ultradense but walkable megacities,

全部塞进一个交通便捷的特大城市，

an urbanized world of maximum human aspiration

这是一个全人类的美好愿景：

and maximum human liberty.

高度自由化的超级城市化世界。

Now, prophets object to every bit of this.

而先知们则反对这一切说辞。

You can't dematerialize food and water, they point out.

他们指出，你不能抹去 水和食物的物质形态，

They say, you can't eat bits,

你不可能以吃比特为生吧，

and industrial agriculture has already given us massive soil erosion,

而且工业化农业生产已经给我们 造成了严重的水土流失，

huge coastal dead zones and ruined soil microbiomes.

造成海洋水体富营养化， 微生物群落被摧毁。

And you wizards, you want more of this?

那我问你们，这些土地 都贫瘠成这副样子了，

And those giant desalination plants?

还想着建你们的海水淡化工厂？

You know they generate equally giant piles of toxic salt

毕竟，它们会产生大量的有毒盐，

that are basically impossible to dispose of.

而这些基本上都是不可能处理掉的。

And those megacities you like?

这就是你喜欢的超级城市？

Can you name me an actually existing megacity

你能给我列出一座现实世界存在的

that really exists in the world today, except for possibly Tokyo,

这种城市吗，除了东京之外，

that isn't a cesspool of corruption and inequality?

而且看着还不像一个 腐败和不平等的污浊之地？

Instead, prophets pray for a world of smaller, interconnected communities,

相反地，先知们希望这个世界 是一个更小型的，相互关联的社区，

closer to the earth,

与自然相处更和谐，

a more agrarian world of maximum human connection

一个全人类紧密相连的农业世界，

and reduced corporate control.

没有任何商业纷争。

More people live in the countryside in this vision,

在这个愿景中，更多的人居住在乡下，

with power provided by neighborhood-scale solar and wind installations

用全社区规模的太阳能 与对环境无破坏的

that disappear into the background.

风力发电机来提供电力。

Prophets don't generate water from giant desalination plants.

先知们才不会用淡化工厂来提取水呢，

They capture it from rainfall,

他们在降雨中获得水分，

and they reuse and recycle it endlessly.

并且不断地重复使用和循环利用。

And the food comes from small-scale networks of farms

食物呢，则有小型的网络型农场，

that focus on trees and tubers

专门栽种树木和薯类，

rather than less productive cereals like wheat and rice.

而不是像大米小麦这样产量低的谷物。

Above all, though, prophets envision people changing their habits.

最重要的是，先知们希望人们 能够改变他们的生活方式。

他们不用开车上班， 而是乘坐可再生能源列车。

They don't drive to work, they take their renewable-powered train.

They don't take 30-minute hot showers every morning.

他们每天早上不用再 花30分钟来洗个热水澡。

They eat, you know, like Michael Pollan says,

像迈克尔 · 波伦说的，

real food, mostly plants, not too much.

他们吃的是真正的食物， 绝大多数是素食，还要控制食量。

Above all, prophets say submitting to nature's restraints

最重要的就是，先知们提倡利用 地球母亲给我们提供的一切，

leads to a freer, more democratic, healthier way of life.

引领一个更自由，更民主， 更健康的生活方式。

Now, wizards regard all this as hooey.

不过，奇才们则认为 这些都是异想天开。

They see it as a recipe for narrowness, regression, and global poverty.

他们觉得这会导致狭隘， 倒退，以及全球性的贫困。

Prophet-style agriculture, they say, only extends the human footprint

他们认为“先知”式的农业 就是扩展人类的足迹，

and shunts more people into low-wage agricultural labor.

给更多的人分配低薪的农务。

Those neighborhood-run solar facilities,

那些在社区使用的太阳能装置，

they sound great,

听起来还不错，

but they depend on a technology that doesn't exist yet.

但依赖于一种 尚未开发出来的技术手段，

They're a fantasy.

完全是痴人说梦。

And recycling water? It's a brake on growth and development.

再说循环利用的水，这就是 限制社会发展的一颗毒瘤。

Above all, though, wizards object to the prophets' emphasis

最重要的是，

奇才们反对先知们在 大规模社会生产上的观点，

on wide-scale social engineering,

which they see as deeply anti-democratic.

他们认为这是完全反民主的。

If the history of the last two centuries was one of unbridled growth,

如果过去两个世纪的历史 是无节制增长的话，

the history of the coming century may well be the choice we make

那么下一个世纪的历史很可能是，

我们作为一个物种 在这两条道路之间做出的选择。

as a species between these two paths.

These are the arguments that will be resolved, in one way or another,

这些问题不管怎样，都会被我们的

by our children's generation,

下一代给解决掉，

the generation that will come into the world of 10 billion.

终将成为构成100亿人口的下一代人。

Now, but wait, by this point, biologists should be rolling their eyes

等会儿，生物学家们 现在应该对此嗤之以鼻，

so loud you can barely hear me speak.

它们的反对之声大到 你都听不到我说话了。

They should be saying, all of this, wizards, prophets,

他们铁定会说，所有这些 “奇才”，“先知”之类的，

it's a pipe dream.

都是白日梦。

It doesn't matter which illusory path you think you're taking.

你认为你做的是 什么白日梦并不重要。

Outbreaks in nature don't end well.

自然界的生物爆炸注定没有好结果。

I mean, you think the protozoa see the edge of the petri dish approaching

我是说，你以为单细胞动物 看到了培养皿的边缘正在靠近，

and say, "Hey guys, time to change society"?

然后说，"朋友们，我们是不是 该改变一下社会结构了？”

No. They just let her rip.

不，它们只会继续。

That's what life does, and we're part of life.

这就是生命，我们也是 这个生命的一部分。

We'll do the same thing. Deal with it.

我们也会做同样的事。 直面这个事实吧。

Well, if you're a follower of Darwin, you have to take this into consideration.

如果你是达尔文的追随者， 就必须考虑到这一点。

I mean, the basic counterargument boils down to: "We're special."

基本的反驳可以归结为： “我们是特殊的。”

How lame is that?

是不是挺厚颜无耻的？

（笑声）

(Laughter)

I mean, we can accumulate and share knowledge

我们可以积累和分享知识，

and use it to guide our future.

再用知识来引领我们的未来。

Well, are we actually doing this?

但我们真的在行动了吗？

Is there any evidence that we're actually using our accumulated, shared knowledge

有什么证据能够证明 我们在用我们所积攒的知识，

to guarantee our long-term prosperity?

来保证我们长期的繁荣呢？

It's pretty easy to say no.

答案显而易见是否定的。

If you're a wizard,

如果你站在奇才那边，

and you believe that hyperproductive, genetically engineered crops

并且相信高产转基因作物

are key to feeding everyone in tomorrow's world,

在未来能够保证每个人的温饱的话，

you have to worry that 20 years

那你就不得不担心，

20年来科学家一直在证明 转基因食物是安全的，

of scientists demonstrating that they are safe to consume

has failed to convince the public to embrace this technology.

却没能够说服公众接受这项技术。

If you're a prophet

如果你是先知的话，

and you believe that key to solving today's growing shortage of fresh water

你也相信解决如今 水资源短缺的唯一关键

is to stop wasting it,

就是节约用水，

you have to worry that cities around the world,

那你也不得不担心 世界上所有的城市里，

in rich places as well as poor,

不管是富裕还是贫穷的地方，

routinely lose a quarter or more of their water

通常都会因为破损 和受到污染的管道，

to leaky and contaminated pipes.

浪费掉至少四分之一的水。

I mean, Cape Town, just a little while ago, almost ran out of water.

举个例子，前阵子 开普敦差点就没水用了。

Cape Town loses a third of its water to leaky pipes.

开普敦有三分之一的水 是因管道漏水而流失的。

This problem has been getting worse for decades,

几十年来这个问题一直在恶化，

让人无语的是，人们在这个问题上 几乎没有采取任何措施。

and remarkably little has been done about it.

If you're a wizard, and you think that clean, abundant,

如果你是一个奇才的话， 你会认为清洁、丰富、

carbon-free nuclear power is key to fighting climate change,

无碳的核能是对抗气候变化的关键，

then you have to worry

那你就不得不考虑

that the public willingness to build nukes is going down.

公众对于建造核电站的意愿正在下降。

If you're a prophet, and you think that the solution to the same problem

如果你是先知，你觉得 解决同样问题的关键是

is these neighborhood-run solar facilities shuttling power back and forth,

靠这些社区运营的太阳能设施 来回运送的电力的话，

你就不得不考虑， 这世上是否有哪个国家

you have to worry that no nation anywhere in the world

has devoted anything like the resources necessary to develop this technology

真正投入了开发 这项技术所需的资源，

and deploy it in the time that we need it.

并且在我们需要的时候能够部署它。

And if you're on either side, wizard or prophet,

如果你是任意一方，奇才或先知，

you have to worry that, despite the massive alarm about climate change,

你得考虑，尽管气候变化的 严重预警早已出现，

the amount of energy generated every year from fossil fuels has gone up

自本世纪初以来，每年从化石燃料中

by about 30 percent since the beginning of this century.

产生的能量增加了约30%。

So, still think we're different than the protozoa?

那么，你还认为我们 和单细胞动物不一样吗?

Still think we're special?

还觉得我们很特别吗？

Actually, it's even worse than that.

实际情况其实更加糟糕。

(Laughter)

（笑声)

We're not in the streets.

我们又不是在市区。

No seriously, if there's a difference between us and the protozoa,

说真的，如果说我们与单细胞动物 之间存在什么差异的话，

a difference that matters,

一个重要的差异

it's not just our art and science and technology and so forth --

并不是我们的艺术和科技等等——

it's that we can yell and scream, we can go out into the streets,

而是我们可以走到大街上， 我们可以大喊大叫，

and, over time, change the way society works,

随着时间的推移， 改变了社会的运作方式，

但我们并没有。

but we're not doing it.

Wizards have been arguing literally for decades

几十年来，奇才们一直在争论

that nuclear power is key to resolving climate change.

核能是不是解决气候变化的关键。

But the first pro-nuke march in history occurred less than two years ago,

但历史上第一次支持核武器的 游行就发生在不到两年前，

and it was dwarfed by the anti-nuke marches of the past.

与过去的反核武器游行相比， 它显得相形见绌。

Prophets have been arguing, again literally for decades,

先知们几十年来一直在争论，

that conservation is key to keeping freshwater supplies

在不破坏产生淡水供应的 生态系统的前提下，

without destroying the ecosystems that generate those freshwater supplies.

保持淡水供应的关键就是贮存。

But in the history of humankind, there has never been a street

但在人类历史上， 从来没有任何一条街挤满了

挥舞着写着破旧管道 标语的愤怒的抗议者。

full of angry protesters waving signs about leaky pipes.

In fact, most of the political activity in this sphere

事实上，在这个领域的 大多数政治活动，

has been wizards and prophets fighting each other, protesting each other

一直都是奇才们和先知们 在相互争斗，相互抗议，

rather than recognizing that they are, fundamentally, on the same side.

而不是承认他们从根本上 就是在同一战线的。

After all, these people are concerned about the same thing:

毕竟，这些人都在关心同一个问题：

How are we going to make our way in the world of 10 billion?

在100亿人口的世界里， 我们将如何生存?

The first step towards generating that necessary social movement,

开始必要的社会运动， 创造一种群众效益，

并且开始走上街 游行的第一步是

creating that critical mass and getting that yelling and screaming going

显而易见的：奇才们与 先知们是在同一战线的。

seems obvious: wizards and prophets join together.

But how are you going to do this, given the decades of hostility?

但考虑到十几年来的 敌意，要如何实现呢？

One way might be this:

一种可行的方式是这样：

Each side agrees to accept the fundamental premises of the other.

双方同意接受对方的基本前提。

Accept that nuclear power is safe and carbon-free,

接受核能是安全且无碳的，

and that uranium mines can be hideously dirty

而且铀矿的污染也非常严重，

and that putting large volumes of toxic waste on rickety trains

把大量的有毒污染物 滞留在破旧的火车上，

and shuttling them around the countryside is a terrible idea.

让火车在乡村间穿行 是个糟糕的想法。

To me, this leads rather quickly to a vision of small,

对我来说，这很快就 引出了一个想法，

neighborhood scale, temporary nukes,

在我们发展和部署可再生能源时，

nuclear power as a bridge technology while we develop and deploy renewables.

小型社区的临时核电站供应的 核能是我们的过渡性技术。

Or accept that genetically modified crops are safe

或者接受改良转基因食物是安全的，

and that industrial agriculture has caused huge environmental problems.

并且农业产业化已经 对环境造成了巨大破坏。

To me, this leads rather quickly to a vision of plant scientists

在我看来，植物科学家们 很快就会发现

他们应该花费更多的精力 研究那些比谷物更高产，

devoting much more of their attention to tree and tuber crops,

which can be much more productive than cereals,

比谷物更节水，对环境 造成的侵蚀更少的作物，

use much less water than cereals, and cause much less erosion than cereals.

像树木和薯类作物。

These are just ideas from a random journalist.

这些想法都只是 来自我这样一个普通人。

I'm sure there's a hundred better ones right here in this room.

而我相信在这儿 有更多人比我聪明。

问题的关键就是，

The main point is,

wizards and prophets working together have many paths to success.

奇才和先知的观点结合起来 会使人类走向成功。

And success would mean much more than mere survival,

而成功不仅仅意味着生存，

important though that is.

尽管活下来的确很重要。

I mean, if humankind somehow survives its own outbreak,

我是说，如果人类能够挺过来的话，

if we get food to everybody, get water to everybody,

如果我们能有保证 每个人都饭吃，有水喝，

get power to everybody,

有电用，

if we avoid the worst effects of climate change,

要是我们避开 气候变化的严重后果的话，

if we somehow safeguard the biome,

要是我们能够保护生物圈的话，

那未来就会相当美好。

it would be amazing.

It would say, I think,

我觉得我会说，

even to a hardened cynic like me,

即使像我这样冷酷的愤世嫉俗者，

maybe we really are special.

都会觉得我们这个物种 可能真的有点特别。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。

(Applause)

（掌声）