How will we survive when the population hits 10 billion? | Charles C. Mann

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Wilde Luo

How are we doing?

大家過得好嗎？

No, no, no, by that, I meant,

不，不，我的意思是，

how are we, homo sapiens "we" ...

大家，「我們」人類……（笑聲）

(Laughter)

doing as a species?

這個物種過得好嗎？（笑聲）

(Laughter)

針對這個問題，典型的答案是：

Now the typical way to answer that question is this.

You choose some measure of human physical well-being:

你選擇某一種人們 在現實中的幸福指數：

average longevity, average calories per day,

平均壽命、平均每日卡路里、

average income, overall population, that sort of thing,

平均收入、總人口數之類的，

and draw a graph of its value over time.

接著畫一張圖， 呈現它隨時間的變化。

In almost every case, you get the same result.

幾乎在任何情況下， 你都會得到同樣的結果。

The line skitters along at a low level for millennia,

這條線跨越數百年 都保持在低水平上，

then rockets up exponentially in the 19th and 20th century.

直到十九、二十世紀時 開始以指數成長的比率飛升。

Or choose a measure of consumption:

或是選擇一種消費指數：

consumption of energy, consumption of fresh water,

能量消耗、淡水消耗、

consumption of the world's photosynthesis,

世界的光合作用消耗，

and draw a graph of its value over time.

接著畫一張圖， 呈現它隨時間的變化。

In the same way, the line skitters along at a low level for millennia,

同樣地，這條線跨越數百年 都保持在低水平上，

then rockets up exponentially in the 19th and 20th century.

直到十九、二十世紀時 開始以指數成長的比率飛升。

Biologists have a word for this: outbreak.

生物學家有個詞 來形容這個現象：爆發。

An outbreak is when a population or species

爆發指的是人口或物種

exceeds the bounds of natural selection.

超越了天擇的界線。

Natural selection ordinarily keeps populations and species

天擇通常會讓人口和物種

within roughly defined limits.

維持在大致的界限之內。

Pests, parasites, lack of resources prevent them from expanding too much.

害蟲、寄生蟲、缺乏資源， 都會阻止他們過度擴張。

But every now and then, a species escapes its bounds.

但是，偶爾會有 某個物種脫離其界限。

Crown-of-thorns starfish in the Indian Ocean,

印度洋的棘冠海星、

zebra mussels in the Great Lakes, spruce budworm here in Canada.

五大湖的斑馬紋貽貝、 加拿大這裡的雲杉卷蛾。

Populations explode, a hundredfold, a thousandfold,

總數爆增，一百倍、

一千倍、一百萬倍。

a millionfold.

So here's a fundamental lesson from biology:

生物學教了我們基本的一課：

outbreaks in nature don't end well.

在自然中，爆發是沒有好下場的。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Put a couple of protozoa into a petri dish full of nutrient goo.

把一些原生動物放到 滿是營養物的培養皿中。

In their natural habitat, soil or water, their environment constrains them.

在牠們的天然棲息地中， 土壤或水分等環境限制了牠們。

In the petri dish, they have an ocean of breakfast

在培養皿中，牠們有一片早餐海洋，

and no natural enemies.

且沒有天敵。

They eat and reproduce, eat and reproduce,

牠們又吃又繁殖，再吃再繁殖，

until bang, they hit the edge of the petri dish,

直到「砰」，撞到了培養皿的邊緣，

at which point they either drown in their own waste,

此時，牠們可能會 被自己的排泄物淹沒，

starve from lack of resources, or both.

或因缺乏資源而餓死，或兩者兼具。

The outbreak ends, always, badly.

爆發的最終結果總是很難看。

Now, from the viewpoint of biology,

從生物學的視角來說，

you and I are not fundamentally different than the protozoa in the petri dish.

你我和培養皿中的原生動物 在根本上並沒有太大差異。

We're not special.

我們並不特別。

All the things that we, in our vanity, think make us different --

我們懷著自負，所認為的 自命不凡的證據——

art, science, technology, and so forth, they don't matter.

藝術、科學、科技等等， 它們都不重要。

We're an outbreak species,

我們是爆發的物種，

we're going to hit the edge of the petri dish, simple as that.

我們將會撞到培養皿的邊緣，

就這麼簡單。

Well, the obvious question: Is this actually true?

很明顯的問題是：這是真的嗎？

Are we in fact doomed to hit the edge of the petri dish?

我們真的注定會撞到 培養皿的邊緣嗎？

I'd like to set aside this question for a moment

我想把這個問題暫時放到一邊，

and ask you guys another one.

先問各位另一個問題。

If we are going to escape biology, how are we going to do it?

如果我們要擺脫生物學的控制，

我們要怎麼做？

In the year 2050,

到 2050 年，

there will be almost 10 billion people in the world,

世界上將會有近一百億人口，

and all of those people will want the things that you and I want:

這些人也會和你我一樣， 想要這些東西：

好車子、好衣服、

nice cars, nice clothes, nice homes,

好房子、一塊瑞士三角巧克力。

the odd chunk of Toblerone.

I mean, think of it: Toblerone for 10 billion people.

想想看，一百億人 都要瑞士三角巧克力。

How are we going to do this?

我們要怎麼辦到？

How are we going to feed everybody, get water to everybody,

我們要如何餵飽每個人、 讓每個人有水喝、

供應電力給每個人，

provide power to everybody, avoid the worst impacts of climate change?

還要避免氣候變遷 所造成的最糟糕的影響？

I'm a science journalist,

我是科學記者，

and I've been asking these questions to researchers for years,

多年來我一直在問學者這些問題，

and in my experience, their answers fall into two broad categories,

依我的經驗，他們的答案 可以歸為兩大類，

which I call "wizards" and "prophets."

我命名為「奇才」和「先知」。

Wizards, techno-whizzes,

奇才，科技能人，

believe that science and technology, properly applied,

他們相信如果能善用科學和科技，

will let us produce our way out of our dilemmas.

我們就能找出脫離兩難境地的出路。

"Be smart, make more," they say.

他們說：「放聰明，多創造。」

"That way, everyone can win."

「這麼一來，人人都是贏家。」

Prophets believe close to the opposite.

先知的信念幾乎是相反的。

They see the world as governed by fundamental ecological processes

他們認為這個世界是由 根本的生態進程所管理，

with limits that we transgress to our peril.

它存在著限制，若我們越界了， 就會造成危機。

"Use less, conserve," they say.

他們說：「少使用，多節省。」

"Otherwise, everybody's going to lose."

「否則，人人都是輸家。」

Wizards and prophets have been butting their heads together for decades,

數十年來，奇才和先知 不斷在對抗彼此，

but they both believe that technology is key to a successful future.

但雙方都相信，

若要有成功的未來， 科技絕對是關鍵。

The trouble is, they envision different types of technology

問題在於，他們想像的是 不同類型的科技

and different types of futures.

和不同類型的未來。

Wizards envision a world of glittering, hyperefficient megacities

奇才們想像的世界

有著閃閃發光的超高效能大城市，

surrounded by vast tracts of untouched nature,

周圍則是大片未受到影響的大自然，

economies that have transitioned from atoms to bits,

經濟體已經從原子轉變成位元，

dematerialized capitalist societies

非物質化的資本主義社會

that no longer depend on exploiting nature.

不再依賴對大自然的剝削。

Energy, to wizards, comes from compact nuclear plants;

對奇才來說，能源來自 小巧型的核電廠；

food from low-footprint farms with ultraproductive,

食物來自低碳足跡的農場，

種植的是有超高生產力的 基因改造作物，

genetically modified crops tended by robots;

並由機器人來照管；

water from high-throughput desalination plants,

水是來自高生產量的海水淡化廠，

which means we no longer exploit rivers and aquifers.

這就表示，我們不再需要 利用河流和地下蓄水層。

Wizards envision all 10 billion of us

在奇才的想像中，所有一百億人

packed into ultradense but walkable megacities,

都被擠在超高密度 但尚能行走的大城市中，

an urbanized world of maximum human aspiration

這是個都市化的世界，

有最高度的人類熱望

and maximum human liberty.

和最高度的人類自由。

Now, prophets object to every bit of this.

先知反對這個想像的每一個部分。

You can't dematerialize food and water, they point out.

他們指出，不可能做到 食物和水的非物質化。

They say, you can't eat bits,

他們說，位元不能食用，

and industrial agriculture has already given us massive soil erosion,

且工業化農業已經 帶給我們大量的土壤侵蝕、

huge coastal dead zones and ruined soil microbiomes.

廣大的沿岸死亡海域， 並破壞了土壤微生物群系。

And you wizards, you want more of this?

你們這些術士竟然還想火上澆油？

And those giant desalination plants?

那些巨大的海水淡化廠？

You know they generate equally giant piles of toxic salt

你們要知道，它們會產生 同樣巨大的成堆的毒鹽，

that are basically impossible to dispose of.

量大到無法處理。

And those megacities you like?

至於你們喜歡的那些大城市呢？

Can you name me an actually existing megacity

你們能否舉出一個 實際存在的大城市，

that really exists in the world today, except for possibly Tokyo,

真正存在於現今的世界上， 除了東京以外的大城市，

that isn't a cesspool of corruption and inequality?

沒有變成腐敗和不平等的汙水坑？

Instead, prophets pray for a world of smaller, interconnected communities,

反之，先知們祈求的是世界能變成

一個相互連結的較小型共同體，

closer to the earth,

和土壤更親近，

a more agrarian world of maximum human connection

一個更農業化的世界， 將人類最大程度地連結起來，

and reduced corporate control.

並減少團體的控制。

More people live in the countryside in this vision,

在這個遠景中，更多人住在鄉村，

with power provided by neighborhood-scale solar and wind installations

電力是由社區規模的太陽能 和風力發電設施來供應，

that disappear into the background.

它們隱藏在背景中完全看不見。

Prophets don't generate water from giant desalination plants.

先知不會用巨型的 海水淡化廠來製造水。

They capture it from rainfall,

他們的淡水來源是雨水，

and they reuse and recycle it endlessly.

並將之無盡地再次使用和回收。

And the food comes from small-scale networks of farms

食物來自小規模的農場網路，

that focus on trees and tubers

著重種植的是喬木和塊莖，

rather than less productive cereals like wheat and rice.

而不是生產力較低的穀類，

如小麥和稻米。

Above all, though, prophets envision people changing their habits.

不過，最重要的是，

在先知的想像中， 大家會改變自己的習慣。

They don't drive to work, they take their renewable-powered train.

他們不再開車去工作， 而是搭乘使用再生能源的火車。

They don't take 30-minute hot showers every morning.

他們不會每天早上 用熱水淋浴半小時。

They eat, you know, like Michael Pollan says,

他們吃的東西， 就像麥可 · 波倫說的，

real food, mostly plants, not too much.

是真正的食物，

大部分是植物，量不會太多。

Above all, prophets say submitting to nature's restraints

最重要的是，先知說， 要服從大自然的限制，

leads to a freer, more democratic, healthier way of life.

才能有更自由、

更民主、更健康的生活方式。

Now, wizards regard all this as hooey.

奇才認為這一切都是胡說八道。

They see it as a recipe for narrowness, regression, and global poverty.

他們認為，用這種方式，

只會造成狹隘、退化和全球貧困。

Prophet-style agriculture, they say, only extends the human footprint

他們說，先知式的農業 只會延伸人類的碳足跡，

and shunts more people into low-wage agricultural labor.

將更多人轉為低薪的農業勞工。

Those neighborhood-run solar facilities,

那些社區自主營運的太陽能設施，

they sound great,

聽起來是很棒！

but they depend on a technology that doesn't exist yet.

但現存科技還做不出這種東西。

They're a fantasy.

它們只是幻想。

And recycling water? It's a brake on growth and development.

回收水呢？它會讓成長和發展停滯。

Above all, though, wizards object to the prophets' emphasis

最重要的是，奇才反對 先知所強調的一點：

on wide-scale social engineering,

規模廣大的社會工程。

which they see as deeply anti-democratic.

他們認為這是非常反民主的。

If the history of the last two centuries was one of unbridled growth,

如果過去這兩世紀的歷史 是無拘無束的成長歷史，

the history of the coming century may well be the choice we make

那麼接下來一世紀的歷史 可能就是我們人類

as a species between these two paths.

在這兩條路之間所做的選擇。

These are the arguments that will be resolved, in one way or another,

這些爭論終將會由 我們孩子的那個世代

by our children's generation,

以某種方式解決，

the generation that will come into the world of 10 billion.

那個世代就是會歷經 一百億人口的世代。

Now, but wait, by this point, biologists should be rolling their eyes

但，等等，在這個時點， 生物學家應該在翻白眼了，

so loud you can barely hear me speak.

聲音大到蓋過我說話的音量。

They should be saying, all of this, wizards, prophets,

他們應該在說， 這一切，奇才，先知，

it's a pipe dream.

只是空想。

It doesn't matter which illusory path you think you're taking.

不論你認為你會選擇哪一條 貌似正確的路，都無所謂。

Outbreaks in nature don't end well.

在大自然中， 爆發的下場都不會好看。

I mean, you think the protozoa see the edge of the petri dish approaching

我是指，你們認為原生動物 看見培養皿的邊緣越來越近，

and say, "Hey guys, time to change society"?

便會說：「嘿，各位， 該是改變社會的時候了？」

No. They just let her rip.

不會。牠們依舊瘋狂地 「我行我素」。

That's what life does, and we're part of life.

生命就是這樣的， 而我們是生命的一部分。

We'll do the same thing. Deal with it.

我們也會做出一樣的事。認命吧。

Well, if you're a follower of Darwin, you have to take this into consideration.

嗯，如果你是達爾文的追隨者，

你就得將它納入考量。

I mean, the basic counterargument boils down to: "We're special."

我是指，基本的反駁論點 最後被歸結為：「我們很特別。」

How lame is that?

多麽蹩腳的論調！（笑聲）

(Laughter)

I mean, we can accumulate and share knowledge

我們能夠累積、分享知識， 用它來引領我們的未來。

and use it to guide our future.

Well, are we actually doing this?

嗯，我們真的有在這麼做嗎？

Is there any evidence that we're actually using our accumulated, shared knowledge

有任何證據證明我們真的在使用 我們所累積、分享的知識，

to guarantee our long-term prosperity?

來確保我們長久的繁榮嗎？

It's pretty easy to say no.

以否定作答，毫不費力。

If you're a wizard,

如果你是個奇才，且你相信 超高產能的基因工程作物

and you believe that hyperproductive, genetically engineered crops

are key to feeding everyone in tomorrow's world,

就是未來世界中人人溫飽的關鍵，

you have to worry that 20 years

那麼你得要擔心，二十年來，

of scientists demonstrating that they are safe to consume

科學家都在努力展示 這類作物可以安全食用，

has failed to convince the public to embrace this technology.

卻始終無法說服大眾 欣然接受這項技術。

If you're a prophet

如果你是個先知，且你相信

and you believe that key to solving today's growing shortage of fresh water

解決未來淡水日益缺乏的關鍵

is to stop wasting it,

就在於停止浪費淡水，

you have to worry that cities around the world,

那麼你得要擔心，全世界的城市，

in rich places as well as poor,

不論是富有或貧窮地區，

routinely lose a quarter or more of their water

都會因為水管漏水及受汙染

to leaky and contaminated pipes.

而固定地損失四分之一以上的水。

I mean, Cape Town, just a little while ago, almost ran out of water.

我是指，沒多久之前， 開普敦差一點把水用盡。

Cape Town loses a third of its water to leaky pipes.

開普敦因為水管漏水 而損失了三分之一的水。

This problem has been getting worse for decades,

數十年來，這個問題越來越嚴重，

and remarkably little has been done about it.

卻幾乎沒有任何對策。

If you're a wizard, and you think that clean, abundant,

如果你是個奇才， 且你認為乾淨、充裕、

carbon-free nuclear power is key to fighting climate change,

無碳的核能發電 是對抗氣候變遷的關鍵，

then you have to worry

那麼你得要擔心，

that the public willingness to build nukes is going down.

大眾對於建造 核電廠的意願不斷下降。

If you're a prophet, and you think that the solution to the same problem

如果你是個先知，

且你認為這個問題的解決方案

is these neighborhood-run solar facilities shuttling power back and forth,

是這些社區自己的太陽能 發電設施來回輸送電力，

you have to worry that no nation anywhere in the world

那麼你得要擔心， 世界上沒有任何一個國家

has devoted anything like the resources necessary to develop this technology

目前有在投入必要的資源 以開發這項技術，

and deploy it in the time that we need it.

並趕在我們需要它的時候部署它。

And if you're on either side, wizard or prophet,

如果你是奇才或是先知，

you have to worry that, despite the massive alarm about climate change,

那麼你得要擔心，

儘管氣候變遷的巨大警鐘已經敲響，

the amount of energy generated every year from fossil fuels has gone up

每年使用化石燃料 產生的能源卻在增加，

by about 30 percent since the beginning of this century.

從本世紀初到現在， 已經上升了約 30%。

So, still think we're different than the protozoa?

所以，仍然認為我們 和原生動物不同嗎？

Still think we're special?

仍然認為我們很，特別嗎？

Actually, it's even worse than that.

其實，是更糟糕。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

We're not in the streets.

這兒可不是街頭。不，說真的。

No seriously, if there's a difference between us and the protozoa,

如果我們和原生動物真的 有什麼差異，有意義的差異，

a difference that matters,

it's not just our art and science and technology and so forth --

那絕對不只是我們的 藝術、科學、科技等等——

it's that we can yell and scream, we can go out into the streets,

而是我們能夠大吼大叫， 我們能走上街頭，

and, over time, change the way society works,

並且，隨時間， 改變社會運作的方式，

但我們並沒有在這麼做。

but we're not doing it.

Wizards have been arguing literally for decades

奇才們長達數十年來都在爭論說

that nuclear power is key to resolving climate change.

核能發電是拯救氣候變遷的關鍵。

解決氣候變遷，不是拯救，抱歉。

But the first pro-nuke march in history occurred less than two years ago,

但歷史上第一次贊成 核能的遊行發生還不到兩年，

and it was dwarfed by the anti-nuke marches of the past.

和過去的反核遊行相比， 它實在很不起眼。

Prophets have been arguing, again literally for decades,

同樣的，先知們 長達數十年來都在爭論說

that conservation is key to keeping freshwater supplies

節省和保護是確保淡水供應的關鍵，

without destroying the ecosystems that generate those freshwater supplies.

且不會摧毀那些供應 淡水的生態系統。

But in the history of humankind, there has never been a street

但在人類的歷史上， 從來沒有見過街頭上

full of angry protesters waving signs about leaky pipes.

滿是憤怒的抗議者高舉 關於漏水管道的標語。

In fact, most of the political activity in this sphere

事實上，在地球上， 大部分的政治活動

has been wizards and prophets fighting each other, protesting each other

都是奇才和先知 彼此對抗，彼此抗爭，

rather than recognizing that they are, fundamentally, on the same side.

而不是去了解，

他們在根本上都是站在同一邊的。

After all, these people are concerned about the same thing:

畢竟，這些人都關心同樣的事：

How are we going to make our way in the world of 10 billion?

我們要如何在有一百億 人口的世界裡生存並發展？

The first step towards generating that necessary social movement,

若要發起必要的社會運動， 創造出批判性的大眾，

creating that critical mass and getting that yelling and screaming going

讓大家能大吼大叫發出倡議， 需要採取的第一步措施似乎很明顯：

seems obvious: wizards and prophets join together.

奇才和先知要聯手。

But how are you going to do this, given the decades of hostility?

但是，數十年來他們一直針鋒相對， 又如何能讓他們齊心協力？

One way might be this:

有一種可能的方法： 每一方都要同意接受

Each side agrees to accept the fundamental premises of the other.

另一方的觀點的基礎前提。

Accept that nuclear power is safe and carbon-free,

接受核能發電是安全且無碳的，

and that uranium mines can be hideously dirty

接受鈾礦可能是非常骯髒的，

and that putting large volumes of toxic waste on rickety trains

且將大量的有毒廢棄物 放到搖晃的火車上，

and shuttling them around the countryside is a terrible idea.

將它們運送到郊區去， 其實是個很爛的點子。

To me, this leads rather quickly to a vision of small,

對我來說，這樣很快就能 導出一個新遠景：

neighborhood scale, temporary nukes,

小型、社區規模、 暫時性的核能發電廠，

nuclear power as a bridge technology while we develop and deploy renewables.

為了開發和部署可再生能源， 把核能作為承前啓後的過渡性技術。

Or accept that genetically modified crops are safe

或是接受基因改造作物是安全的，

and that industrial agriculture has caused huge environmental problems.

且工業化農業已經造成了 很大的環境問題。

To me, this leads rather quickly to a vision of plant scientists

對我來說，這樣很快就能 導出一個新遠景：

植物科學家將更多的注意力 投入到喬木和塊莖作物上，

devoting much more of their attention to tree and tuber crops,

which can be much more productive than cereals,

比起穀類，它們更為多產，

use much less water than cereals, and cause much less erosion than cereals.

用水量也較少， 造成的侵蝕也少很多。

These are just ideas from a random journalist.

這些只是隨便一個記者的點子。

I'm sure there's a hundred better ones right here in this room.

我相信在這間房間中 還有上百個更好的點子。

The main point is,

重點是，奇才和先知

wizards and prophets working together have many paths to success.

若能攜手合作， 成功的道路就會更加寬闊。

And success would mean much more than mere survival,

「成功」的意涵 遠不僅僅是生存下來，

important though that is.

儘管那也很重要。

I mean, if humankind somehow survives its own outbreak,

我是指，若人類能以某種方式 從自己的爆發中存活下來，

if we get food to everybody, get water to everybody,

如果我們能為每一個人供應 食物、水和電力，

get power to everybody,

if we avoid the worst effects of climate change,

如果我們能避免氣候變遷 所造成的最糟糕的影響，

if we somehow safeguard the biome,

如果我們能以某種方式 保護這個生物群落，

it would be amazing.

那會是很了不起的。

It would say, I think,

即使對我這種徹頭徹尾的 諷世者來說，我想，這也意味著，

even to a hardened cynic like me,

maybe we really are special.

也許我們真的是特別的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）