The secret sneaker market — and why it matters | Josh Luber

翻译人员: Hong Li 校对人员: Wei Wu

This is the Air Jordan 3 Black Cement.

这是一双飞人乔丹3代黑水泥球鞋。

This might be the most important sneaker in history.

它可能是史上最重要的一双球鞋。

First released in 1988,

于1988年首次推出，

this is the shoe that started Nike marketing as we know it.

正是它开启了我们熟知的耐克营销（模式）。

This is the shoe that propelled the entire Air Jordan lineage,

正是它开启了整个飞人乔丹产品线，

and perhaps saved Nike.

甚至可能拯救了耐克公司。

The Air Jordan 3 Black Cement did for sneakers

飞人乔丹3代黑水泥对于球鞋的意义

what the iPhone did for phones.

就像iPhone对于手机的意义。

It's been re-released four times.

这款鞋先后发售过四次。

Every celebrity's been seen wearing it.

几乎所有明星都穿过它。

There's a site about what to wear with the Black Cement.

有一个网站还专门介绍 应该穿什么（衣服）来搭配黑水泥。

It's been right under your nose for decades

它已经流行了几十年

and you never looked down.

而你却从未注意过它。

And right about now,

也许就在此刻，

most of you are probably thinking, "Sneakers?"

你们大多数人会想，“啥？球鞋？”

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Yes.

是的。

Yes, sneakers.

没错，就是球鞋。

Some extraordinary things about sneakers

（我想说说）关于球鞋的趣事

and data

关于数据

and Nike

关于耐克

and how they're all related, possibly, to the future of all online commerce.

以及它们是如何同 在线贸易的未来联系在一起的。

In 2011,

2011年，

the last time the Jordan 3 Black Cement was released,

乔丹3代黑水泥最近一次发售，

at a retail of 160 dollars,

零售价160美元，

it sold out globally in minutes.

在全球范围内几分钟就被抢购一空。

And that's because people were camped outside of sneaker stores

因为人们在店外扎营等候，

for days before it went on sale.

从发售开始几天前就开始了。

And just minutes after that,

在此之后几分钟内，

thousands of those pairs were on eBay for two and three times retail.

数千双黑水泥在eBay上以2-3倍的价格出售。

In fact, there's over 1,000 pairs on eBay right now, four years later.

实际上，四年后的今天， eBay上仍有超过1000双在出售。

But here's the thing:

更为重要的是：

this happens every single Saturday.

这样的事情每个星期六都在发生。

Every week there's another release or two or three,

每周都会有一、两款鞋发售，

and every shoe has a story

每款鞋都有自己的故事

as rich and compelling as the Jordan 3 Black Cement.

每个故事都像乔丹3代黑水泥一样精彩。

This is Nike building the marketplace for sneakerheads --

这就是耐克为“球鞋控”打造的交易市场。

people who collect sneakers --

“球鞋控”就是指这些收集球鞋的人，

and my daughter.

还有我的女儿。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

That's an "I love Dad" T-shirt.

T恤上写的是“我爱老爸”。

For the brands, sneakerheads are a very important demographic.

对于品牌而言，“球鞋控” 是非常重要的目标人群。

These are the tastemakers; these are the Apple fanboys.

他们就如同时尚达人， 他们就如同苹果的“果粉”。

Because who else is going to buy

因为除了“球鞋控”

a pair of $8,000 Back to the Future sneakers?

谁会花8000美元 去买一双“回到未来”风的球鞋呢？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Yeah, 8,000 dollars.

没错，8000美元。

And while that's obviously the anomaly,

尽管（在日常生活中）这简直不可思议，

the resell sneaker market is definitely not.

但在二手球鞋市场就再正常不过了。

Thirty years in the making,

这个市场已经发展了30年，

what started as an underground culture

最初还是一种地下文化，

of a few people who like sneakers just a bit too much --

起源于一小部分对球鞋的爱， 只比普通人多一点点的人。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Now we have sneaker addictions.

现在我们都爱鞋成瘾了。

In a market where in the past 12 months,

在过去12个月，

there have been over nine million pairs of shoes

有超过900万双鞋

resold in the United States alone,

在美国被转手出售，

at a value of 1.2 billion dollars.

总价值12亿美元。

And that's a conservative estimate --

这还只是保守估计。

I should know, I am a sneakerhead.

（这些数据）我应该知道， （因为）我就是个“球鞋控”

This is my collection.

这些是我的收藏。

In the pantheon of great collections, mine doesn't even register.

跟大咖们相比，我的数量少得可怜。

I have about 250 pairs, but trust me, I am small-time.

我有大约250双球鞋， 但是真不算什么。

People have thousands.

有的人有几千双。

I'm a very typical 37-year-old sneakerhead.

我是个典型的37岁的“球鞋控”。

I grew up playing basketball when Michael Jordan played,

我是打篮球长大的， 当时乔丹还没退役，

I always wanted Air Jordans,

我一直想买乔丹鞋，

my mother would never buy me Air Jordans,

我妈肯定不答应，

我一有钱就会去买乔丹鞋，

as soon as I got some money I bought Air Jordans --

我想，大家的经历都差不多。

literally, we all have the exact same story.

But here's where mine diverged.

但我的经历又有些不同。

After starting three companies, I took a job as a strategy consultant,

在开办了3家公司之后， 我找了一份战略咨询师的工作，

when I very quickly realized that I didn't know the first thing about data.

然后我迅速意识到， 我对数据一无所知。

But I learned, because I had to,

但我学得很快，因为我不得不学。

and I liked it.

而且我很喜欢。

So I thought, I wonder if I could get ahold of some sneaker data,

然后我就想，能不能 抓取一些关于球鞋的数据，

just to play with for my own amusement.

仅仅是为了好玩。

The goal was to develop a price guide,

我的目标是做出一个价格指导系统，

a real data-driven view of the market.

能一窥真实的市场状况， 完全靠数据说话。

And four years later, we're analyzing over 25 million transactions,

四年过去了，我们能（通过） 分析超过2500万宗交易，

providing real-time analytics on thousands of sneakers.

提供对数千双球鞋的实时（价格）分析。

Now sneakerheads check prices while camping out for releases.

现在“球鞋控”在排队等待发售 的时候可以查询价格。

Others have used the data to validate insurance claims.

其他人用这些数据来看自己是否买亏了。

And the top investment banks in the world

顶级投资银行们

now use resell data to analyze the retail footwear industry.

也利用这些二手交易数据 来分析制鞋工业销售情况。

And here's the best part:

但最棒的是，

sneakerheads have sneaker portfolios.

“球鞋控”有了球鞋投资收益表。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Sneakerheads can track the value of their collection over time,

他们可以跟踪自己藏品的价值，

compare it to others,

与其他人（的藏品）进行比较，

and have access to the same analytics you might

得到详细的（投资）分析，

就跟我们的在线经纪人账户一样。

for your online brokerage account.

So sneakerhead Dan builds his collection and identifies which 352 are his.

所以“球鞋控”丹创建了自己的藏品集， 一共有352双鞋。

He can see it's worth 103,000 dollars --

他可以看到，目前这些鞋值10万3千美元，

frankly, a modest collection.

坦率地说，规模不算大。

At the asset level, he can see gain-loss by shoe.

上升到资产层面，他可以 看到每双鞋价值的变化

Here he's made over 600 dollars on one pair.

这双鞋他就已经赚了600美元。

I have one of those.

我也有一双这样的。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

So an unregulated 1.2 billion dollar industry

因此，这是一项价值高达12亿美元 的产业，却又缺乏监管，

that thrives as much on the street as it does online,

它在线上线下同时繁荣发展，

and has spawned fundamental financial services for sneakers?

还催生出了针对球鞋的基本金融服务。

At some point I asked myself what's really going on in the market,

有时候我会问自己， 这个市场到底是怎么运作的，

and two comparisons started to emerge.

我的脑海中会浮现两个参照物。

Are sneakers more like stocks or drugs?

球鞋是像股票呢，还是像毒品？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

In fact, one guy emailed to say

一次，一个人给我发邮件说，

he thought his 15-year-old son was selling drugs

他觉得自己15岁的儿子在卖毒品，

and later found out he was selling sneakers.

结果发现他在卖球鞋。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And now they use the data to do it together.

现在父子俩用我们的数据 一块在做这个生意。

And that's because sneakers are an investment opportunity

因为在没有其他投资手段的时候，

where none other exists.

球鞋成为了投资机会。

And I don't just mean the kid selling sneakers instead of drugs.

我想说的并不仅仅是这一个 选择卖球鞋(而非卖毒品)的孩子。

How about all kids?

如果所有的孩子都这样选择呢？

You have to be 18 to play the stock market.

你得年满18岁才能买股票。

I sold chewing gum in sixth grade,

我在6年级的时候卖过口香糖，

Blow Pops in ninth grade

9年级的时候卖棒棒糖，

and collected baseball cards through high school.

高中阶段一直在收集棒球卡。

The cards are long dead,

棒球卡已经没人玩了，

and the candy market's usually quite local.

而糖果生意呢通常局限在本地。

For a lot of people, sneakers are a legal and accessible investment opportunity --

对很多人来说，球鞋是一种合法 且门槛较低的投资机会——

a democratized stock market,

就像是大众化的股票市场，

but also unregulated.

但同时缺乏监管。

Which is why the story you're probably most familiar with

这就是为什么一提到二手球鞋， 大家最先想到的是

is people killing each other for sneakers.

有人为了球鞋不惜伤人性命。

And while that definitely happens and is tragic,

如果真有这样的事发生， 当然是个悲剧，

it's not nearly the epidemic some media would have you believe.

但肯定没有一些媒体宣扬的那么可怕。

In fact, it's a very small piece of a much bigger and better story.

实际上，这样的事还是极少数， 世界还是美好的。

So sneakers have clear similarities

因此，球鞋跟股票和毒品

to both the stock exchange and the illegal drug trade,

还真是有明显的相似之处，

but perhaps the most fundamental is the existence of a central actor.

但最基本的一点就是， 都有一个核心玩家。

Someone is making the rules.

有一个规则制定者。

In the case of sneakers, that someone is Nike.

对于球鞋而言， 这个规则制定者就是耐克。

Let me walk you through some numbers.

我给大家看一组数字。

The resell market, we know, is $1.2 billion.

二手球鞋市场，我们刚才说到了， 价值12亿美元。

Nike, including Jordan brand,

耐克，包括乔丹品牌，

accounts for 96 percent of all shoes sold on the secondary market.

占据了整个二手市场出售鞋类的96%。

Just complete domination.

完全的霸主地位。

Sneakerheads love Jordans.

“球鞋控”超爱乔丹鞋。

And profit on the secondary market is about a third.

二手市场的利润大约为三成。

That means that sneakerheads made 380 million dollars

也就是说通过倒手卖耐克鞋，

selling Nikes last year.

“球鞋控”去年赚了3.8亿美元。

Let's jump to retail for a second.

让我们来看看零售业。

Skechers, earlier this year,

斯凯奇在今年早些时候，

became the number two footwear brand in the country,

成为了美国第二大鞋品牌，

surpassing Adidas -- this was a big deal.

超越了阿迪达斯，很了不起。

And in the 12 months ending in June,

从去年6月到今年6月，1年的时间内，

Skechers's net income was 209 million dollars.

斯凯奇的收入为2.09亿美元。

That means that Nike's customers

这就意味着耐克（通过自己）的消费者们

make almost twice as much profit as their closest competitor.

创造的利润就几乎达到 其最大竞争对手的两倍。

That --

这真是……

(Laughter)

（笑声）

How is that even possible?

简直不可思议！

The sneaker market is just supply and demand,

球鞋市场无非就是供给与需求，

but Nike's gotten very good at using supply -- limited sneakers --

但耐克掌握了供给的秘诀——限量款球鞋——

and the distribution of those sneakers to their own benefit.

以及强大的分销网络。

So it's really just supply.

因此供给真的很重要。

Sneakerheads joke that as long as it's limited and Nike, they'll buy it.

“球鞋控”开玩笑说，只要是 限量款的耐克，他们就会买。

Shoes that sell for 8,000 dollars do so because they're very rare.

之前那双鞋卖到8000美元 就是因为它稀有。

It's no different than any other collectible market,

其它的收藏品市场其实也是如此，

only this isn't a market at all.

只不过鞋类收藏还称不上一个市场。

It's a false construct created by Nike --

而是由耐克打造的一个空中楼阁——

ingeniously created by Nike, in the most positive sense -- to sell more shoes.

精妙无比，目标明确——卖出更多的鞋。

And in the process,

在这一过程中，

it provided tens of thousands of people with life-long passions,

成千上万的人找到了终生的爱好，

myself included.

也包括我。

If Nike wanted to kill the resell market, they could do so tomorrow,

如果耐克想要干掉二手市场， 那是分分钟的事，

all they have to do is release more shoes.

它只要多发售一些鞋就行了。

But we certainly don't want them to, nor is it in their best interest.

但我们当然不想他们这么做， 而且这也不符合他们的利益。

That's because unlike Apple, who will sell an iPhone to anyone who wants one,

苹果的策略是把手机 卖给每一个需要的人，

Nike doesn't make their money by just selling $200 sneakers.

而耐克不一样，它不光通过 卖200美元的球鞋赚钱。

They sell millions of shoes to millions of people for 60 dollars.

它以60美元的价格卖出数百万双鞋。

And sneakerheads are the ones who drive the marketing

“球鞋控”是推动销售的人，

and the hype and the PR and the brand cachet,

他们口口相传，卖力吆喝， 打造品牌价值，

and enable Nike to sell millions of $60 sneakers.

耐克才有可能卖出数百万双60美元的鞋。

It's marketing.

这就是营销。

It's marketing the likes of which has never been seen before --

这种营销前所未见——

任何教科书上都没有写。

this isn't in any textbook.

For 15 years Nike has propped up an artificial commodities market,

耐克用15年的时间， 打造了一个人工商品市场，

with a Facebook-level hyped IPO every single weekend.

每个周末都相当于进行了一次 规模堪比Facebook的IPO宣传。

Drive by any Footlocker at 8am on a Saturday morning,

每周六早上8点，你开车经过 Footlocker任意一家门店，

and there will be a line down the street and around the block,

都能看见门口长长的队伍， 甚至绕街区好几圈，

有些孩子甚至已经排了整整一周。

and sometimes those kids have been waiting there all week.

You know those crazy iPhone lines you see on the news every other year?

大家都记得，疯狂排队买新iPhone， 是两年一次。

Nike lines happen 104 times more often.

而排队买耐克，是每两年104次。

So Nike sets the rules.

所以耐克拥有话语权。

And they do so by controlling supply and distribution.

他们通过控制供给 和分销网络来做到这一点。

But once a pair leaves the retail channel, it's the Wild West.

但一旦一双鞋通过零售渠道卖出去后， 事情就失去控制了。

There are very few -- if any -- legal, unregulated markets of this size.

几乎没有哪个合法 又缺乏监管的市场能达到如此体量。

So Nike is definitely not the stock exchange.

因此，耐克绝对不是（这个市场的）交易所。

In fact, there is no central exchange.

实际上，这样的交易所不存在。

By last count, there were 48 different online markets that I know of.

根据最新统计，光我知道的 在线市场就有48个之多。

Some are eBay clones, some are mobile markets,

有些是山寨eBay， 有些是移动互联网商场，

and then you have consignment shops and brick-and-mortar stores,

还有寄售商店，实体店，

and sneaker conventions, and reseller sites,

球鞋展会，二手网站，

and Facebook and Instagram and Twitter --

还有Facebook、Instagram和Twitter——

literally, anywhere sneakerheads come into contact with each other,

一句话，只要是“球鞋控”能建立联系的地方，

shoes will be bought and sold.

就有球鞋买卖。

But that means no efficiencies, no transparency,

但这也意味着缺乏效率，不透明，

sometimes not even authenticity.

有时候甚至不可靠。

Can you imagine if that's how stocks were bought?

想象一下如果买股票也是这样呢？

What if the way to buy a share of Apple stock

想象一下，你想买苹果公司股票，

was to search over 100 places online and off,

结果你需要在线上线下 搜索超过100个地方，

including every time you walk down the street

每当你在街上走的时候，

just hoping to pass someone wearing some Apple stock?

还得希望碰到几个持有苹果股票的人。

Never knowing who had the best price,

不知道谁出价最合理，

or even if the stock you were looking at was real.

甚至不知道这股票是真是假。

That would surely make you say:

这时候，你可能会说：

[WTF?]

［这都什么鬼？！］

Of course that's not how we buy stock.

当然，买股票不是这样的。

But what if that's not how we need to buy sneakers either?

但是，为什么买球鞋就要这样呢？

What if the inverse is true,

如果反过来，

and what if we could buy sneakers

我们可以像买股票一样

exactly the same way as we buy stock?

来买球鞋呢？

And what if it wasn't just sneakers, but any similar product,

或者除了球鞋， 包括所有类似的商品，

like watches and handbags and women's shoes,

比如手表、手袋、女式鞋，

and any collectible, any seasonal item and any markdown item?

收藏品，季节性商品，减价商品。

What if there was a stock market for commerce?

如果能有一个用来做贸易的“股票市场”呢？

A stock market of things.

一个交易物品的“股票市场”。

And not only could you buy in a much more educated and efficient manner,

这样一来，你不光可以用 更文明更有效的的方式买买买，

but you could engage in all the sophisticated financial transactions

你还可以进行更为精确的金融交易，

you can with the stock market.

就像在股市上一样。

Shorts and options and futures

缺点，可能性，未来

and well, maybe you see where this is going.

也许，一些人觉得这事不靠谱。

Maybe you want to invest in a stock market of things.

而你呢，想往这个交易物品的 “股票市场”里投些钱。

Because if you had invested in a pair of Air Jordan 3 Black Cement in 2011,

因为如果你在2011年投资了 一双飞人乔丹3代黑水泥球鞋，

you could either be wearing them onstage,

你要么可以在舞台上穿着它们，

(Laughter)

（笑声）

or have earned 162 percent on your money --

或者赚取162%的回报——

double the S&P and 20 percent more than Apple.

是标准普尔指数的两倍， 比苹果公司还多20%。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And that's why we're talking about sneakers.

这就是我们今天谈论球鞋的原因。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。

(Applause)

（掌声）