The secret sneaker market — and why it matters | Josh Luber

譯者: Allen Kuo 審譯者: Adrienne Lin

This is the Air Jordan 3 Black Cement.

這是Air Jordan 3代 「黑白爆裂紋」球鞋。

This might be the most important sneaker in history.

這可能是歷史上最重要的球鞋。

First released in 1988,

它在1988年第一次發表，

this is the shoe that started Nike marketing as we know it.

開啟了我們今天所熟知的 Nike行銷手法。

This is the shoe that propelled the entire Air Jordan lineage,

它就是推動整個Air Jordan系列，

and perhaps saved Nike.

甚至可能還救了Nike的一雙鞋。

The Air Jordan 3 Black Cement did for sneakers

Air Jordan 3代黑白爆裂紋 在球鞋中的重要性

what the iPhone did for phones.

等同iPhone在手機中的重要性。

It's been re-released four times.

它已經被復刻了四次。

Every celebrity's been seen wearing it.

幾乎每個名人都被看見穿過這雙鞋。

There's a site about what to wear with the Black Cement.

甚至還有個網站專門介紹 搭配這雙鞋的各種服飾。

It's been right under your nose for decades

這些事情在你眼下已經發生好幾十年，

and you never looked down.

只是你從來沒有好好關注它。

And right about now,

而就在此時此刻，

most of you are probably thinking, "Sneakers?"

你們當中大部分人可能 正在想：「球鞋！？」

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

Yes.

對。

Yes, sneakers.

對，就是球鞋。

Some extraordinary things about sneakers

還有關於球鞋一些意想不到的事，

and data

還有數據，

and Nike

還有Nike，

and how they're all related, possibly, to the future of all online commerce.

還有他們如何會影響到 線上商業行為的未來。

In 2011,

2011年，

the last time the Jordan 3 Black Cement was released,

Jordan 3代黑白爆裂紋 最後一次發表時，

at a retail of 160 dollars,

零售價是160美元，

it sold out globally in minutes.

幾分鐘內就在全球銷售一空。

And that's because people were camped outside of sneaker stores

原因是許多人就在鞋店外搭帳篷，

for days before it went on sale.

等它發售等了好幾天。

And just minutes after that,

就在發售完畢幾分鐘後，

thousands of those pairs were on eBay for two and three times retail.

其中好幾千雙就在eBay上 以兩、三倍的價格上架。

In fact, there's over 1,000 pairs on eBay right now, four years later.

事實上，現在還有超過一千雙 在eBay上販售，即使時隔四年。

But here's the thing:

但有趣的是：

this happens every single Saturday.

這件事情每個禮拜六都會發生。

Every week there's another release or two or three,

每個禮拜都會有 一雙鞋釋出，甚至兩、三雙，

and every shoe has a story

而且每一雙鞋都有故事，

as rich and compelling as the Jordan 3 Black Cement.

和Air Jordan 3代 黑色爆裂紋一樣精采迷人。

This is Nike building the marketplace for sneakerheads --

這是Nike為了這些「鞋頭」 在打造的市場－－

people who collect sneakers --

「鞋頭」指的是蒐集球鞋的人，

and my daughter.

還有我女兒。

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

That's an "I love Dad" T-shirt.

她身上穿著「我愛爸爸」的T恤。

For the brands, sneakerheads are a very important demographic.

對這些品牌而言， 鞋頭是非常重要的一群人。

These are the tastemakers; these are the Apple fanboys.

他們是引領潮流的人； 他們是鞋界的果粉。

Because who else is going to buy

不然還有誰會買

a pair of $8,000 Back to the Future sneakers?

一雙8,000美元的「回到未來」鞋？

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

Yeah, 8,000 dollars.

是的，8,000美元。

And while that's obviously the anomaly,

當然這很明顯地是個反常的案例，

the resell sneaker market is definitely not.

但球鞋轉售的市場可絕對不是。

Thirty years in the making,

在它逐漸成形的30年間，

what started as an underground culture

它原本只是一種地下文化，

of a few people who like sneakers just a bit too much --

在這些愛鞋有點過頭的人之間流竄……

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

Now we have sneaker addictions.

現在演變成球鞋成癮現象。

In a market where in the past 12 months,

就發生在這個過去12個月

there have been over nine million pairs of shoes

光在美國就賣了9百萬雙鞋

resold in the United States alone,

at a value of 1.2 billion dollars.

總價值超過12億美元的市場裡。

And that's a conservative estimate --

而且這是保守估計──

I should know, I am a sneakerhead.

我應該很清楚，我是個鞋頭。

This is my collection.

這是我的收藏。

In the pantheon of great collections, mine doesn't even register.

在球鞋收藏的名人堂裡， 我連註冊的資格都沒有。

I have about 250 pairs, but trust me, I am small-time.

我有大約250雙， 但相信我，我算小咖的。

People have thousands.

有人有上千雙的。

I'm a very typical 37-year-old sneakerhead.

我是個非常典型的37歲鞋頭。

I grew up playing basketball when Michael Jordan played,

我是看著麥可‧喬丹打球長大的，

I always wanted Air Jordans,

一直希望擁有Air Jordan球鞋，

媽媽永遠不會買給我，

my mother would never buy me Air Jordans,

所以拿到錢馬上 跑去買Air Jordan──

as soon as I got some money I bought Air Jordans --

真的，我們都有一模一樣的故事。

literally, we all have the exact same story.

But here's where mine diverged.

但我的版本稍微有點不同。

After starting three companies, I took a job as a strategy consultant,

在嘗試創業三次之後， 我找了一個策略顧問的工作，

when I very quickly realized that I didn't know the first thing about data.

當時我立刻意識到 我完全不瞭解數據這件事。

But I learned, because I had to,

但我開始去學，因為我得學會，

and I liked it.

結果我喜歡上它。

So I thought, I wonder if I could get ahold of some sneaker data,

所以我開始想，是不是 能掌握一些球鞋相關的數據，

just to play with for my own amusement.

讓我能用這些數據輔助個人興趣。

The goal was to develop a price guide,

目標是建立一個價格指南，

a real data-driven view of the market.

一個真正參考自數據的市場觀點。

And four years later, we're analyzing over 25 million transactions,

四年後的今天，我們已經在 分析超過2,500萬筆交易，

providing real-time analytics on thousands of sneakers.

為數以千計的球鞋提供即時分析。

Now sneakerheads check prices while camping out for releases.

現在鞋頭們會在搭帳篷 等球鞋發售前先確認價格。

Others have used the data to validate insurance claims.

另外也有人利用這些數據 來核定保險理賠的金額。

And the top investment banks in the world

還有一些全球頂尖的投資銀行

now use resell data to analyze the retail footwear industry.

正在利用轉售的數據 來分析鞋類零售業。

And here's the best part:

以下是最棒的部分：

sneakerheads have sneaker portfolios.

鞋頭們擁有球鞋的投資組合。

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

Sneakerheads can track the value of their collection over time,

鞋頭可以追蹤他們 所收鞋款的價值變化，

compare it to others,

和其他鞋款做比較，

and have access to the same analytics you might

還可以進入線上經紀帳戶

for your online brokerage account.

進行相同的分析。

So sneakerhead Dan builds his collection and identifies which 352 are his.

像鞋頭丹建立了自己的組合， 並選出自己擁有哪352雙鞋。

He can see it's worth 103,000 dollars --

他可以看到這些鞋 價值103,000美元──

frankly, a modest collection.

老實說，只是中等程度的收藏。

At the asset level, he can see gain-loss by shoe.

他還可以看到在他的資產水平上， 每雙鞋的損益為何。

Here he's made over 600 dollars on one pair.

可以看到他的一雙鞋賺了超過600美元。

I have one of those.

這個我也有一雙。

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

So an unregulated 1.2 billion dollar industry

所以這個不受規範、價值12億美元、

that thrives as much on the street as it does online,

在街上和線上都一樣活躍的產業，

and has spawned fundamental financial services for sneakers?

竟然還催生了專為球鞋打造的 基礎財務服務？

At some point I asked myself what's really going on in the market,

有一天，我曾自問 這個市場究竟是怎麼回事，

and two comparisons started to emerge.

有兩個東西的對比開始浮現。

Are sneakers more like stocks or drugs?

球鞋比較像股票，還是毒品？

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

In fact, one guy emailed to say

事實上，曾有人寫信給我，

he thought his 15-year-old son was selling drugs

說他以為他15歲的兒子在販毒，

and later found out he was selling sneakers.

後來發現他原來是在賣鞋。

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

And now they use the data to do it together.

而現在他們利用數據一起在做這件事。

And that's because sneakers are an investment opportunity

這是因為球鞋可以是種投資機會

而其他商品則不行。

where none other exists.

And I don't just mean the kid selling sneakers instead of drugs.

我想說的並不只是 這個孩子用賣鞋取代販毒。

How about all kids?

如果所有孩子都這麼做呢？

You have to be 18 to play the stock market.

你必須滿18歲才能玩股票。

I sold chewing gum in sixth grade,

我六年級開始賣口香糖，

Blow Pops in ninth grade

國三則賣棒棒糖，

and collected baseball cards through high school.

高中時都在收集棒球卡。

The cards are long dead,

這些卡當然已經永遠消失了，

and the candy market's usually quite local.

而糖果也只會在當地賣賣。

For a lot of people, sneakers are a legal and accessible investment opportunity --

但對許多人來說，球鞋是個 合法而容易進入的投資機會──

a democratized stock market,

一個民主化的股票市場，

but also unregulated.

但也是未受規範的。

Which is why the story you're probably most familiar with

這也是為什麼你可能經常聽到

is people killing each other for sneakers.

有人為了球鞋殺人這種事情。

And while that definitely happens and is tragic,

這是確實會發生的事，也絕對是悲劇，

it's not nearly the epidemic some media would have you believe.

卻不是某些媒體寫的那種流行病。

In fact, it's a very small piece of a much bigger and better story.

事實上，這只是更大更美好的故事中 非常小的一部分。

So sneakers have clear similarities

所以球鞋買賣明顯相似於

to both the stock exchange and the illegal drug trade,

股票交易和非法毒品交易，

but perhaps the most fundamental is the existence of a central actor.

但或許最重要的是 有個核心演員存在。

Someone is making the rules.

有人訂出了這些規則。

In the case of sneakers, that someone is Nike.

在球鞋的案例中，這個人就是Nike。

Let me walk you through some numbers.

讓我快速帶各位看過幾個數字。

The resell market, we know, is $1.2 billion.

我們知道轉賣市場 價值12億美元。

Nike, including Jordan brand,

Nike，包含Jordan牌，

accounts for 96 percent of all shoes sold on the secondary market.

在二手市場賣出了總雙數96%的鞋。

Just complete domination.

完全的支配。

Sneakerheads love Jordans.

鞋頭們很愛Jordan鞋。

And profit on the secondary market is about a third.

而二手市場的利潤大約是33%。

That means that sneakerheads made 380 million dollars

這代表這些鞋頭去年 賺了3億8,000萬美金，

selling Nikes last year.

僅靠賣Nike球鞋。

Let's jump to retail for a second.

讓我們暫時先跳到零售市場。

Skechers, earlier this year,

Skechers，今年稍早

became the number two footwear brand in the country,

成為美國第二大的鞋子品牌，

surpassing Adidas -- this was a big deal.

超越Adidas──這可是件大事。

And in the 12 months ending in June,

而在今年六月為止的12個月中，

Skechers's net income was 209 million dollars.

Skechers淨利為2億9百萬美元。

That means that Nike's customers

意思是Nike的顧客

make almost twice as much profit as their closest competitor.

賺了他們最大競爭者幾乎兩倍的錢。

That --

這……

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

How is that even possible?

這怎麼可能呢？

The sneaker market is just supply and demand,

球鞋市場就只是供給和需求而已，

but Nike's gotten very good at using supply -- limited sneakers --

但Nike非常善於操作供給──限量鞋款，

and the distribution of those sneakers to their own benefit.

以及這些鞋款的銷售配額 來增加他們的利益。

So it's really just supply.

所以真的就只是控制供給。

Sneakerheads joke that as long as it's limited and Nike, they'll buy it.

鞋頭常開玩笑地說， 只要是Nike限量款，他們就會買。

Shoes that sell for 8,000 dollars do so because they're very rare.

鞋子可以賣8,000美元 是因為它們很稀有。

It's no different than any other collectible market,

這點無異於任何其他收藏品的市場，

only this isn't a market at all.

唯一不同的是，它根本不是個市場。

It's a false construct created by Nike --

它是一個被Nike 創造出來的假結構 －

ingeniously created by Nike, in the most positive sense -- to sell more shoes.

在最積極的意義上，Nike巧妙地 創造出來的──為了賣更多鞋。

And in the process,

而在過程中，

it provided tens of thousands of people with life-long passions,

供應了數以萬計、擁有畢生熱情的人，

myself included.

包含我自己在內。

If Nike wanted to kill the resell market, they could do so tomorrow,

如果Nike想摧毀這個轉售市場， 他們明天就辦得到，

all they have to do is release more shoes.

只要釋出更多的鞋就行了。

But we certainly don't want them to, nor is it in their best interest.

但我們肯定不希望他們這麼做， 當然對他們自己也無益。

That's because unlike Apple, who will sell an iPhone to anyone who wants one,

這是因為不像Apple 將iPhone賣給任何想要的人，

Nike doesn't make their money by just selling $200 sneakers.

Nike不是光靠著 賣200美元的球鞋賺錢。

They sell millions of shoes to millions of people for 60 dollars.

他們將幾百萬雙60美元的鞋 賣給幾百萬個人。

And sneakerheads are the ones who drive the marketing

而鞋頭就是幫他們促進行銷成效、

and the hype and the PR and the brand cachet,

炒作、公共關係、品牌印記的人，

and enable Nike to sell millions of $60 sneakers.

讓Nike可以把60美元的鞋 賣給上百萬人。

It's marketing.

這是行銷。

It's marketing the likes of which has never been seen before --

這是前所未見的行銷手法，

沒有在任何教科書上。

this isn't in any textbook.

For 15 years Nike has propped up an artificial commodities market,

15年來，Nike扶植了 一個人工商品市場，

with a Facebook-level hyped IPO every single weekend.

每個週末都搞一次炒作程度 如同Facebook的首次公開募資。

Drive by any Footlocker at 8am on a Saturday morning,

星期六早上八點開車經過 任何Footlocker店面，

and there will be a line down the street and around the block,

街上會有一條長長的隊伍 圍繞整個街區，

有些孩子甚至等了一整個禮拜。

and sometimes those kids have been waiting there all week.

You know those crazy iPhone lines you see on the news every other year?

你看過iPhone每年推出新機時 瘋狂排隊盛況嗎？

Nike lines happen 104 times more often.

Nike排隊盛況的頻率 是那個的104倍。

So Nike sets the rules.

所以是Nike制定了遊戲規則。

And they do so by controlling supply and distribution.

方法是控制供給和銷售配額。

But once a pair leaves the retail channel, it's the Wild West.

而當這些鞋離開零售店， 就是狂野的大西部了。

There are very few -- if any -- legal, unregulated markets of this size.

如此規模的合法卻又未受規範的市場極罕見， 可說是除此之外根本沒有，

So Nike is definitely not the stock exchange.

所以Nike球鞋肯定不是股票交易。

In fact, there is no central exchange.

事實上，連交易中心都沒有。

By last count, there were 48 different online markets that I know of.

上次計算時，光我所知 就有48個不同的線上市場。

Some are eBay clones, some are mobile markets,

有些是eBay的複製品、 有些是行動市場，

and then you have consignment shops and brick-and-mortar stores,

還有寄售商店、實體店面，

and sneaker conventions, and reseller sites,

還有球鞋交易中心、二手轉賣網站，

and Facebook and Instagram and Twitter --

還有Facebook、Instagram、Twitter……

literally, anywhere sneakerheads come into contact with each other,

真的是鞋頭可以接觸彼此的任何地方，

shoes will be bought and sold.

就會有球鞋買賣。

But that means no efficiencies, no transparency,

但這表示沒有效率、也不透明，

sometimes not even authenticity.

有時甚至沒有誠信。

Can you imagine if that's how stocks were bought?

你能想像如果股票被這樣買賣嗎？

What if the way to buy a share of Apple stock

如果你要買一股Apple的股票，

was to search over 100 places online and off,

得先搜尋超過100個 線上或實體商店，

including every time you walk down the street

包含每次走在街上時

都期待撞見一個穿著Apple股票的人， 一切會變怎樣？

just hoping to pass someone wearing some Apple stock?

Never knowing who had the best price,

永遠不知道誰會有最好的價格，

or even if the stock you were looking at was real.

甚至不知道你看到的 這張股票是不是真的。

That would surely make you say:

這肯定會讓你想說：

[WTF?]

（這什麼鬼東西啊！？）

Of course that's not how we buy stock.

這當然不是我們購買股票的方式。

But what if that's not how we need to buy sneakers either?

但如果這也不是我們 必須購買球鞋的方式呢？

What if the inverse is true,

如果情況相反過來，

and what if we could buy sneakers

如果我們可以用和買股票 完全相同的方式來購買球鞋呢？

exactly the same way as we buy stock?

And what if it wasn't just sneakers, but any similar product,

如果不只是球鞋，還有任何類似商品，

like watches and handbags and women's shoes,

像是手錶、手提包、女鞋，

and any collectible, any seasonal item and any markdown item?

以及任何收藏品、當季品項 和特價商品呢？

What if there was a stock market for commerce?

如果商品界也有股票市場呢？

A stock market of things.

實體物品的股票市場。

And not only could you buy in a much more educated and efficient manner,

這樣你不只可以用更有知識根據、 更有效率的方式買東西，

but you could engage in all the sophisticated financial transactions

還可以操作所有完善的財務交易，

you can with the stock market.

就像操作股票一樣。

Shorts and options and futures

空頭交易、選擇權、期貨，

and well, maybe you see where this is going.

或許你了解它會怎麼發展。

Maybe you want to invest in a stock market of things.

或許你也想買一些實體商品的股票。

Because if you had invested in a pair of Air Jordan 3 Black Cement in 2011,

因為如果你在2011年投資了 一雙Air Jordan3代黑白爆裂紋，

you could either be wearing them onstage,

你可以穿著它們站上講台，

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

or have earned 162 percent on your money --

或是賺到投資金額的162%──

double the S&P and 20 percent more than Apple.

報酬率是標準普爾的2倍、 也是Apple的1.2倍。

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

And that's why we're talking about sneakers.

而這就是為什麼我們今天要討論球鞋。

Thank you.

謝謝各位。

(Applause)

(掌聲)