Irwin Redlener: How to survive a nuclear attack

翻译人员: Chen Huang 校对人员: Zhu Jie

So, a big question that we're facing now

我们现在面临一个大问题

and have been for quite a number of years now:

这个问题已经持续了很多年：

are we at risk of a nuclear attack?

我们是否处于遭受核袭击的危险之中呢？

Now, there's a bigger question

现在，有一个更大的问题

that's probably actually more important than that,

这个问题可能比刚刚提到的那个问题更重要

is the notion of permanently eliminating

那就是，我们能不能永久地消除

the possibility of a nuclear attack,

核袭击的可能性

eliminating the threat altogether.

能不能将这种威胁完全消除

And I would like to make a case to you that

我想给大家举个例子

over the years since we first developed atomic weaponry,

从核武器被发明以来的这些年间

until this very moment,

直到此时此刻

we've actually lived in a dangerous nuclear world

我们其实一直生活在一个危险的核世界

that's characterized by two phases,

这可以分为两个阶段

which I'm going to go through with you right now.

我现在和大家一起来回顾一下

First of all, we started off the nuclear age in 1945.

首先，我们从1945年开始正式进入核时代

The United States had developed a couple of atomic weapons

美国通过曼哈顿计划

through the Manhattan Project,

成功研制出了核武器

and the idea was very straightforward:

目的非常明确

we would use the power of the atom

我们将动用核武器的力量

to end the atrocities and the horror

来结束无休止的二战

of this unending World War II

所带来的残暴与恐惧

that we'd been involved in in Europe and in the Pacific.

我们当时被卷入了欧洲和太平洋战场

And in 1945,

在1945年

we were the only nuclear power.

我们是唯一的有核国家

We had a few nuclear weapons,

我们有一定数量的核武器

two of which we dropped on Japan, in Hiroshima,

其中一枚投在了日本广岛市

a few days later in Nagasaki, in August 1945,

另一枚几天之后扔在了长崎，这些发生在1945年8月

killing about 250,000 people between those two.

这两枚原子弹一共造成25万人死亡

And for a few years,

之后的一些年间

we were the only nuclear power on Earth.

我们一直是地球上唯一的有核国家

But by 1949, the Soviet Union had decided

但是1949年，苏联认为

it was unacceptable to have us as the only nuclear power,

只有美国拥有核武器是一件无法接受的事情

and they began to match what the United States had developed.

他们开始和美国一样发展核武器

And from 1949 to 1985

从1949年到1985年

was an extraordinary time

这是一个特殊时期

of a buildup of a nuclear arsenal

一个核武器逐步发展的时期

that no one could possibly have imagined

如果是在40年代

back in the 1940s.

没有人可能会想到

So by 1985 -- each of those red bombs up here

到1985年的时候，地图上每一个红色炸弹标志

is equivalent of a thousands warheads --

都代表着1000枚核弹头

the world had

整个世界

65,000 nuclear warheads,

一共有65000枚核弹头

and seven members of something

有7个国家先后拥有了核武器

that came to be known as the "nuclear club."

成为了一个叫做“核俱乐部”组织的成员

And it was an extraordinary time,

这是一个特殊时期

and I am going to go through some of the mentality

我一会儿将讨论一下

that we -- that Americans and the rest of the world were experiencing.

美国人以及其他国家的人对此的思考

But I want to just point out to you that 95 percent

但我想先向大家指出

of the nuclear weapons at any particular time

自1985年以来的任何一个时间点

since 1985 -- going forward, of course --

全世界百分之九十五的

were part of the arsenals

核武器被储存在

of the United States and the Soviet Union.

美国和苏联的军火库中

After 1985, and before the break up of the Soviet Union,

从1985年到苏联解体的这段时间

we began to disarm

我们在核武器这方面

from a nuclear point of view.

开始削减军备

We began to counter-proliferate,

我们开始反核扩散

and we dropped the number of nuclear warheads in the world

我们全世界的核弹头数量减少到了

to about a total of 21,000.

大约21000枚

It's a very difficult number to deal with,

这是一个非常难理解的数目

because what we've done is

因为我们所做的

we've quote unquote "decommissioned" some of the warheads.

只是使一些核弹头“退役”了

They're still probably usable. They could be "re-commissioned,"

它们可能还可以使用，并且可以“再次服役"

but the way they count things, which is very complicated,

但是军方用一种很复杂的技术方法统计得出结论：

we think we have about a third

我们以为全世界只留有相比以前

of the nuclear weapons we had before.

三分之一的核武器

But we also, in that period of time,

但与此同时，我们的

added two more members to the nuclear club:

”核俱乐部“又新增了两个成员

Pakistan and North Korea.

巴基斯坦和北朝鲜

So we stand today with a still fully armed nuclear arsenal

因此我们今天仍处于一个

among many countries around the world,

很多国家都拥有核武器的时期

but a very different set of circumstances.

但情况却和以前非常不同

So I'm going to talk about

我接下来会分两个时期讨论

a nuclear threat story in two chapters.

关于核威胁的历史

Chapter one is 1949 to 1991,

第一个时期从1949年到

when the Soviet Union broke up,

1991年苏联解体

and what we were dealing with, at that point and through those years,

我们要关注的是在这些年间

was a superpowers' nuclear arms race.

有一场超级大国之间的核军备竞赛

It was characterized by

这场核军备竞赛最主要的特点就是

a nation-versus-nation,

国家之间的对立导致

very fragile standoff.

核战争一触即发

And basically,

基本上

we lived for all those years,

可以毫不夸张地说

and some might argue that we still do,

我们那些年就像走在

in a situation of

世界末日的悬崖边

being on the brink, literally,

有些人认为

of an apocalyptic, planetary calamity.

直至今日情况仍然如此

It's incredible that we actually lived through all that.

我们能活到现在简直是难以置信

We were totally dependent during those years

这些年我们（之所以能活下来）完全是依赖于

on this amazing acronym, which is MAD.

这个神奇的叫做MAD的东西

It stands for mutually assured destruction.

它是“确保相互毁灭”的缩写

So it meant

它的意思是，如果...

if you attacked us, we would attack you

如果你袭击我，我也会袭击你

virtually simultaneously,

双方几乎同时发动袭击

and the end result would be a destruction

这样做的结果就是

of your country and mine.

你我两国同时被摧毁

So the threat of my own destruction

因此由于担心我自己被毁灭

kept me from launching

我不会发射（核武器）

a nuclear attack on you. That's the way we lived.

来对你进行核打击。这就是我们为什么能活下来

And the danger of that, of course, is that

不过这么做的危险就是

a misreading of a radar screen

雷达的一次误报

could actually cause a counter-launch,

就可能引发一次反击

even though the first country had not actually launched anything.

即使另一个国家事实上根本没有发射任何东西

During this chapter one,

在这个时期

there was a high level of public awareness

民众很清楚地意识到

about the potential of nuclear catastrophe,

确实可能发生潜在的核灾难

and an indelible image was implanted

一个难以抹掉的画面出现在

in our collective minds

每个人的脑海中

that, in fact, a nuclear holocaust

那就是一次核灾难

would be absolutely globally destructive

将带来全球性的毁灭

and could, in some ways, mean the end of civilization as we know it.

而且，从某个角度来说，这也意味着人类文明将走到尽头

So this was chapter one.

这就是第一个时期

Now the odd thing is that even though

不过奇怪的是，即使

we knew that there would be

我们知道可能会发生

that kind of civilization obliteration,

这种文明灭绝

we engaged in America in a series --

我们美国人正忙于一系列－

and in fact, in the Soviet Union --

事实上苏联也一样－

in a series of response planning.

一系列应对措施

It was absolutely incredible.

这简直让人难以置信

So premise one is we'd be destroying the world,

一方面是我们随时都可能毁灭世界

and then premise two is, why don't we get prepared for it?

另一方面我们却在考虑如何为此做好准备？

So what

所以，我们－

we offered ourselves

我们提出了

was a collection of things. I'm just going to go skim through a few things,

一堆方案。我将只回顾其中的几个

just to jog your memories.

只是为了唤起你们的回忆

If you're born after 1950, this is just --

如果你是1950年之后出生的，你可以把这些

consider this entertainment, otherwise it's memory lane.

当作娱乐，或者是怀旧

This was Bert the Turtle. (Video)

这是那只叫贝尔的乌龟

This was basically an attempt

这个算是尝试着

to teach our schoolchildren

教正在上学的孩子们

that if we did get engaged

如果我们真的被卷入

in a nuclear confrontation and atomic war,

一次核冲突或者核战争

then we wanted our school children

我们希望我们的孩子们

to kind of basically duck and cover.

迅速躲到桌子下面

That was the principle. You --

这就是基本的原则

there would be a nuclear conflagration

核突击袭来时

about to hit us, and if you get under your desk,

如果你趴在桌子底下

things would be OK.

一切就没事了

(Laughter)

（笑声）

I didn't do all that well

我在医学院的时候

in psychiatry in medical school, but I was interested,

“精神病学”学得并不是很好，但是我很感兴趣

and I think this was seriously delusional.

而我真的认为这样的措施完全是患有妄想症的表现

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Secondly, we told people

另外，我们告诉人们

to go down in their basements

躲到地下室去

and build a fallout shelter.

把那里作为一个放射性微粒掩蔽所

Maybe it would be a study when we weren't having an atomic war,

也许我们可以好好研究研究，如果没有发生核战争

or you could use it as a TV room, or, as many teenagers found out,

我们也许可以把那里当作看电视的房间，又或者，很多青少年会发现

a very, very safe place for a little privacy with your girlfriend.

这一个绝佳的和女朋友呆在一起的私密环境

And actually -- so there are multiple uses of the bomb shelters.

事实上，这个防空洞可以又很多用处

Or you could buy a prefabricated bomb shelter

或者你可以买一个组装式的防空洞

that you could simply bury in the ground.

你需要的只是把它埋到地里

Now, the bomb shelters at that point --

说到防空洞

let's say you bought a prefab one -- it would be a few hundred dollars,

假如你买了一个组装式的，这可能要花几百美元

maybe up to 500, if you got a fancy one.

如果你买一个好点儿的可能要花掉500美元

Yet, what percentage of Americans

但是你们认为有百分之多少的美国人

do you think ever had a bomb shelter in their house?

曾经在他们的房子下面建有一个防空洞呢？

What percentage lived in a house with a bomb shelter?

有百分之多少的人住在有防空洞的房子里呢？

Less than two percent. About 1.4 percent

少于总人口百分之二，只有大概百分之一点四的人

of the population, as far as anyone knows,

就我们目前所知

did anything,

曾采取过措施

either making a space in their basement

不管是腾出地下室作为避难所也好

or actually building a bomb shelter.

或者是真的建了一个防空洞也好

Many buildings, public buildings, around the country --

很多建筑－全国各地的公共建筑

this is New York City -- had these little civil defense signs,

这是在纽约－有这样的民防系统标志

and the idea was that you would

这个想法是说如果大家

run into one of these shelters and be safe

跑到这些避难所里就会安全

from the nuclear weaponry.

不会受到核武器的威胁

And one of the greatest governmental delusions

政府有史以来

of all time was something that happened

最大的幻想之一

in the early days of

是由早期的

the Federal Emergency Management Agency, FEMA, as we now know,

联邦紧急情况管理署（FEMA）提出的

and are well aware of their behaviors from Katrina.

我们在卡特里娜飓风的时候已经领教过FEMA的本事了

Here is their first big public

这就是第一次

announcement.

大范围的公告

They would propose --

政府提出

actually there were about six volumes written on this --

事实上他们给出了一个长达六本书的预案

a crisis relocation plan

一个应急转移计划

that was dependent upon

这个预案的前提是

the United States having three to four days warning

美国能够提前三到四天得知

that the Soviets were going to attack us.

苏联将要对我们发动袭击

So the goal was to evacuate the target cities.

预案的目标是从这些可能遭到袭击的城市中撤离

We would move people out of the target cities

将这些城市的居民转移出来

into the countryside.

转移到乡村

And I'm telling you, I actually testified at the Senate

我可以告诉大家，我曾经在参议院作证

about the absolute ludicrous idea

对于这个荒谬至极的想法

that we would actually evacuate,

如果我们真的有能力疏散群众

and actually have three or four days' warning.

并且可以提前三到四天预警

It was just completely off the wall.

这也太扯了吧

Turns out that they had another idea

其实政府有另一个目的

behind it, even though this was --

虽然对公众说

they were telling the public it was to save us.

这是为了保护大家

The idea was that we would force the Soviets

其实真正的目的是逼迫苏联

to re-target their nuclear weapons -- very expensive --

重新设定核袭击的目标－这是一笔非常大的开销－

and potentially double their arsenal,

甚至逼迫他们将核武器数量提升一倍

to not only take out the original site,

从而（使核武器的攻击范围）不仅覆盖以前就覆盖到的地方

but take out sites where people were going.

还覆盖到那些人们前往避难的地方

This was what apparently, as it turns out, was behind all this.

这显然就是这个计划背后的目的

It was just really, really frightening.

这实在是太可怕了

The main point here is we were dealing with

我主要想说明的一点是：我们一直都在做一些

a complete disconnect from reality.

和现实情况不相关的事情

The civil defense programs were disconnected

民防系统和一场全面爆发的核战争

from the reality of what we'd see in all-out nuclear war.

完全不相符合

So organizations like Physicians for Social Responsibility,

因此，一些组织，比如“社会责任医师组织”（PSR）

around 1979, started saying this a lot publicly.

在1979年左右，开始向公众进行宣传

They would do a bombing run. They'd go to your city,

他们会做轰炸演习，比如来到你的城市，

and they'd say, "Here's a map of your city.

给你一张城市的地图，

Here's what's going to happen if we get a nuclear hit."

如果我们被核弹袭击了这里都会发生什么”

So no possibility of medical response to,

告诉你：如果真的发生一场全面的核战争

or meaningful preparedness for

医疗救援将根本不可能实现

all-out nuclear war.

而且也无法实现进行有效的准备

So we had to prevent nuclear war

所以我们必须避免发生核战争

if we expected to survive.

如果我们想活命的话

This disconnect was never actually resolved.

这个方案与现实脱节的问题一直没有得到根本解决

And what happened was --

而现实是

when we get in to chapter two

当我们进入1945年开始的

of the nuclear threat era,

核威胁时期的

which started back in 1945.

第二阶段

Chapter two starts in 1991.

第二个阶段是从1991年开始的

When the Soviet Union broke up,

当苏联解体之后

we effectively lost that adversary

美国实际上上失去了竞争对手

as a potential attacker of the United States, for the most part.

这个长久以来潜在的袭击者基本不复存在了

It's not completely gone. I'm going to come back to that.

但苏联的威胁也不是完全消失了，我一会儿会再提到这一点

But from 1991

从1991年开始

through the present time,

直到现在

emphasized by the attacks of 2001,

尤其是2001年的”9.11“事件说明

the idea of an all-out nuclear war

全面爆发的核战争的可能性

has diminished and the idea of a single event,

已经逐渐减小，

act of nuclear terrorism

取而代之的

is what we have instead.

是单独的核恐怖袭击活动

Although the scenario has changed

情况虽然和以前大不一样

very considerably, the fact is

但事实是

that we haven't changed our mental image

我们头脑里对于核战争的理解

of what a nuclear war means.

并未改变

So I'm going to tell you what the implications of that are in just a second.

我一会儿会说明这意味着什么

So, what is a nuclear terror threat?

那么，什么是核恐怖袭击呢？

And there's four key ingredients to describing that.

它有四个关键组成部分

First thing is that the global nuclear weapons,

第一个是全球范围内核武器

in the stockpiles that I showed you in those original maps,

就是我之前给大家看的那张地图所显示的核武器储备

happen to be not uniformly secure.

其实并不是全部都处于安全状态

And it's particularly not secure

尤其是那些前苏联所拥有的核武器

in the former Soviet Union, now in Russia.

现在这些核武器在俄罗斯手中

There are many, many sites where warheads are stored

这些核弹头储存在很多地方

and, in fact, lots of sites where fissionable materials,

可事实上，这其中又很多地方对于储存

like highly enriched uranium and plutonium,

如高浓缩铀和钚这样的裂变物质而言

are absolutely not safe.

并不安全

They're available to be bought, stolen, whatever.

这些核弹头可能被贩卖或是被偷窃

They're acquirable, let me put it that way.

换句话说，它们可以被其他人得到

From 1993 through 2006,

从1993年到2006年

the International Atomic Energy Agency

国际原子能机构

documented 175 cases of nuclear theft,

记录在案的核失窃案件就有175起

18 of which involved highly enriched uranium or plutonium,

其中18起和高浓缩铀和钚有关

the key ingredients to make a nuclear weapon.

这些是制造核武器的关键原料

The global stockpile of highly enriched uranium

全球的高浓缩铀储备

is about 1,300, at the low end,

大约为1300吨

to about 2,100 metric tons.

到2100吨之间

More than 100 megatons of this

其中至少有100吨

is stored in particularly insecure

储存在非常不安全的

Russian facilities.

俄罗斯的储备设施中

How much of that do you think it would take

大家觉得造一个一万吨级当量的核弹

to actually build a 10-kiloton bomb?

大约需要多少高浓缩铀呢？

Well, you need about 75 pounds of it.

你需要大约75磅高浓缩铀

So, what I'd like to show you

所以，我想给大家展示一下

is

那就是

what it would take to hold 75 pounds

75磅高浓缩铀

of highly enriched uranium.

大约是多少呢？

This is not a product placement. It's just --

我这可不是在做软广告。这只是...

in fact, if I was Coca Cola, I'd be pretty distressed about this --

事实上，如果我是可口可乐公司，我一定为此非常郁闷

(Laughter)

笑声

-- but

但是

basically, this is it.

基本上，就是这么多

This is what you would need to steal or buy

你只要从那100吨没有被安全储存的原料中

out of that 100-metric-ton stockpile

偷取或者购买这么多就够了

that's relatively insecure

储存设施偷取的高浓缩铀总量

to create the type of bomb

从而制造出一个核弹

that was used in Hiroshima.

威力相当于在广岛爆炸的那枚核弹

Now you might want to look at plutonium

现在你们可能想看看如果是钚

as another fissionable material that you might use in a bomb.

另一种可用于制造核弹的裂变物质

That -- you'd need 10 to 13 pounds of plutonium.

你需要10到13磅钚

Now, plutonium, 10 to 13 pounds:

钚，10到13磅

this. This is enough plutonium

这是这么多，这些钚足以

to create a Nagasaki-size atomic weapon.

制造一个威力相当于在长崎爆炸的那枚原子弹

Now this situation, already I --

对于这个情况

you know, I don't really like thinking about this,

你们知道，我并不愿意去想这个问题

although somehow I got myself a job

虽然我阴差阳错地得到了一份工作

where I have to think about it. So

使我不得不去想

the point is that we're very, very insecure

重点是，我们发展这些裂变物质是

in terms of developing this material.

非常非常不安全的

The second thing is, what about the know-how?

第二个组成部分是，制造技术

And there's a lot of controversy about

有很多关于恐怖组织

whether terror organizations have the know-how

是否真的掌握了

to actually make a nuclear weapon.

核武器制造技术的争论

Well, there's a lot of know-how out there.

好吧，其实到处都能找到制造技术

There's an unbelievable amount of know-how out there.

而且关于这些制造技术的资料多得令人难以置信

There's detailed information on how to assemble

这其中有如何将各个部件组装起来

a nuclear weapon from parts.

成为一个核武器的详细信息

There's books about how to build a nuclear bomb.

有教你如何制造核弹的书籍

There are plans for how to create a terror farm

甚至还有建造一个“恐怖农场”所需的详细计划

where you could actually manufacture and develop

在那儿你可以加工制造

all the components and assemble it.

所有的部件并进行组装

All of this information is relatively available.

所有这些信息都是相对而言容易找到的

If you have an undergraduate degree in physics,

只要你有一个物理学本科学历

I would suggest --

我猜-

although I don't, so maybe it's not even true --

虽然我没有...所以我说也不一定对－

but something close to that would allow you,

不过我想有一定物理水平的人

with the information that's currently available,

在这些可获得的信息帮助下

to actually build a nuclear weapon.

事实上是可以制造出核武器的

The third element of the nuclear terror threat

第三个核恐怖袭击的要素是

is that, who would actually do such a thing?

谁可能会做出这样的事情？

Well, what we're seeing now is a level of terrorism

我们现在面对的是恐怖主义已经进入一个新的阶段

that involves individuals who are highly organized.

他们有严密的组织

They are very dedicated and committed.

他们极具献身精神并且异常忠诚

They are stateless.

他们没有国籍

Somebody once said, Al Qaeda

有人曾说，“基地”组织

does not have a return address,

并没有一个“回信”地址

so if they attack us with a nuclear weapon,

那么如果他们向我们发射核武器

what's the response, and to whom is the response?

我们怎么反击？反击谁？

And they're retaliation-proof.

他们不怕报复

Since there is no real retribution possible

因为要对他们进行有效的惩罚

that would make any difference,

事实上是非常困难的

since there are people willing to actually give up their lives

由于有人愿意牺牲自己

in order to do a lot of damage to us,

去摧毁别人

it becomes apparent

情况变得显而易见

that the whole notion

“确保相互毁灭”这个概念

of this mutually assured destruction would not work.

将不再适用

Here is Sulaiman Abu Ghaith,

这是苏莱曼·阿布·吉斯

and Sulaiman was a key lieutenant of Osama Bin Laden.

苏莱曼是乌萨马·本·拉登的左膀右臂

He wrote many, many times statements to this effect:

他发表过很多言论说：

"we have the right to kill four million Americans,

”我们有权利杀死四百万美国人，

two million of whom should be children."

其中两百万是儿童。”

And we don't have to go overseas

我们不用出国门都能找到

to find people willing to do harm, for whatever their reasons.

愿意发动袭击的人，不管是他们这么做的目的是什么

McVeigh and Nichols, and the Oklahoma City attack

麦克威和尼克斯，俄克拉荷马城恐怖袭击

in the 1990s

发生在90年代

was a good example of homegrown terrorists.

这是一个很好的关于在美国长大的恐怖分子的例子

What if they had gotten their hands on a nuclear weapon?

如果他们手中有核武器会发生什么？

The fourth element

第四个要素

is that the high-value U.S. targets

那就是袭击对美国而言重要的目标

are accessible, soft and plentiful.

这些目标不仅可以靠近，而且脆弱，数量众多

This would be a talk for another day, but the level of the preparedness

这可以作为另外一个演讲来讨论，但只在如何应对这个层面上来说

that the United States has achieved

美国在2001年“9/11”之后

since 9/11 of '01

所做的努力

is unbelievably inadequate.

简直是难以置信的不足

What you saw after Katrina

我们所看到的在“卡特里娜”飓风过后的情况

is a very good indicator

就能很好地说明

of how little prepared the United States is

美国的准备是何等地不充分

for any kind of major attack.

在面临任何大规模地袭击的时候

Seven million ship cargo containers

每年有七百万集装箱货船

come into the United States every year.

驶入美国

Five to seven percent only are inspected --

其中只有百分之五到七接受了检查－

five to seven percent.

百分之五到七

This is Alexander Lebed,

这是亚历山大·列别德

who was a general that worked with Yeltsin,

他是和叶利钦时代的将军

who talked about, and presented to Congress,

他向国会介绍并展示了

this idea that the Russians had developed --

俄罗斯设计的一种方案

these suitcase bombs. They were very low yield --

这些手提箱炸弹似乎并不厉害

0.1 to one kiloton,

每个只有0.1到1千吨当量

Hiroshima was around 13 kilotons --

在广岛爆炸的那枚可是一万三千吨当量的

but enough to do an unbelievable amount of damage.

但它们还是足以造成难以想象的破坏

And Lebed came to the United States

列别德曾来到美国

and told us that many, many --

告诉我们有很多很多的－

more than 80 of the suitcase bombs

超过80个这样的手提箱炸弹

were actually not accountable.

事实上是不受控制的

And they look like this. They're basically very simple arrangements.

它们看起来就是这个样子。本质上来说结构非常简单。

You put the elements into a suitcase.

你把这些部件放进一只手提箱

It becomes very portable.

炸弹就变得非常便携。

The suitcase can be conveniently dropped

这些手提箱非常容易就能放入

in your trunk of your car.

你的汽车后备箱

You take it wherever you want to take it, and you can detonate it.

你可以把它带到任何你想去地方然后引爆它

You don't want to build a suitcase bomb,

如果你不想制造这种手提箱炸弹

and you happen to get one of those insecure

而你又碰巧得到了一个因为安全措施没做好

nuclear warheads that exist.

而被人偷出来的核弹头

This is the size of

这是那枚在广岛爆炸的

the "Little Boy" bomb that was dropped at Hiroshima.

“小男孩”核弹的大小

It was 9.8 feet long,

长3米

weighed 8,800 pounds. You go down to

重达4吨。你可以联系

your local rent-a-truck

你周围的卡车出租公司

and for 50 bucks or so,

花大概50美元

you rent a truck that's got the right capacity,

租一辆容量正好的卡车

and you take your bomb,

你带上你的核弹

you put it in the truck and you're ready to go.

把它装进卡车，然后你就可以出发了

It could happen. But what it would mean and who would survive?

这些是可能发生的。但重要的是这意味着什么，以及谁可以逃过这一劫

You can't get an exact number for that kind of probability,

你没法得知这件事的可能性究竟是多少

but what I'm trying to say is that

但是我要说的是

we have all the elements of that happening.

以上所说的所有要素现在其实都满足了

Anybody who dismisses the thought

任何对自己说

of a nuclear weapon

核武器不会被恐怖分子使用的人

being used by a terrorist is kidding themselves.

其实是在欺骗自己

I think there's a lot of people in the intelligence community --

我想很多情报部门的人

a lot of people who deal with this work in general

那些经常和这些工作打交道的人

think it's almost inevitable, unless we do certain things

都认为这些袭击是不可避免的，除非我们采取某些措施

to really try to defuse the risk,

去尽可能地规避危险

like better interdiction, better prevention,

比如更好的管制，更好的防范

better fixing, you know, better screening

更好的监测－或者说，更好的筛查

of cargo containers that are coming into the country and so forth.

那些进口货物集装箱等等

There's a lot that can be done to make us a lot safer.

许许多多能让我们变得更安全的举措有待实施

At this particular moment,

此时此刻

we actually could end up

我们完全有可能

seeing a nuclear detonation in one of our cities.

目睹核弹在我们的城市中爆炸

I don't think we would see an all-out nuclear war

我不认为我们在近期内会遇到全面爆发的核战争

any time soon, although even that is not completely off the table.

虽然这也不是完全不可能

There's still enough nuclear weapons

各个超级大国里的军火库里

in the arsenals of the superpowers

有足够的核武器

to destroy the Earth many, many times over.

可以毁灭地球很多很多次

There are flash points in India and Pakistan,

印巴冲突一触即发

in the Middle East, in North Korea,

在中东，在北朝鲜

other places where the use of nuclear weapons,

或者其他地方

while initially locally,

虽然刚开始可能只在区域范围内使用核武器

could very rapidly

但有可能很快地

go into a situation

发展并上升到

where we'd be facing all-out nuclear war.

一场全面核战争

It's very unsettling.

非常让人不安

Here we go. OK.

好的，我们来亲眼看看吧

I'm back in my truck, and we drove over the Brooklyn Bridge.

回到我刚才提到的卡车，我们把它开到布鲁克林大桥

We're coming down,

我们一路开往市中心

and we bring that truck

我们把车开到

that you just saw

你刚看到的

somewhere in here, in the Financial District.

金融区的某个地方

This is a 10-kiloton bomb,

有一个一万吨级当量的核弹

slightly smaller than was used

只比广岛爆炸的那枚核弹小一点

in Hiroshima. And I want to just conclude this

我希望通过下面这个总结

by just giving you some information. I think --

提供给大家一些信息，我想－

"news you could use" kind of concept here.

可以说是一些“实用新闻”

So, first of all, this would be horrific

首先，这可能听上去有些吓人

beyond anything we can possibly imagine.

这可能超越了我们能够想象的范围

This is the ultimate.

这是终极的危险

And if you're in the half-mile radius

如果你位于距离爆炸中心

of where this bomb went off,

半英里的范围内

you have a 90 percent chance of not making it.

你面临的将是九死一生的情况

If you're right where the bomb went off,

如果你就位于爆炸中心

you will be vaporized. And that's --

你会被汽化，而这－

I'm just telling you, this is not good.

我不得不说，非常遗憾

(Laughter)

（笑声）

You assume that.

假设

Two-mile radius, you have a 50 percent chance

在半径两英里的范围内，

of being killed,

你有百分之五十的机会生还

and up to about eight miles away --

如果把范围扩大到八英里－

now I'm talking about killed instantly --

我现在讨论的是立刻死亡的情况－

somewhere between a 10 and 20 percent

估计死亡的概率

chance of getting killed.

在百分之十到百分之二十之间

The thing about this is that

事情是这样的

the experience of the nuclear detonation is --

关于核弹爆炸，

first of all, tens of millions of degrees Fahrenheit

首先，爆炸中心温度高达

at the core here, where it goes off,

数千度，并且以

and an extraordinary amount of energy

极高的热能

in the form of heat, acute radiation

强烈的辐射

and blast effects.

以及剧烈的爆炸等形式扩散

An enormous hurricane-like wind,

在这个黄色区域内会产生

and destruction of buildings almost totally,

一股像龙卷风一般的风暴

within this yellow circle here.

所有建筑将几乎被全部摧毁

And what I'm going to focus on, as I come to conclusion here,

在这个总结中我要重点强调的是

is that, what happens to you

如果你在这儿

if you're in here?

将会发生什么

Well, if we're talking about the old days

如果我们说的是以前

of an all-out nuclear attack,

所面临的那种全面核战争

you, up here,

你，如果站在这儿

are as dead as the people here. So it was a moot point.

和黄圈里的人一样难逃一劫。所以，（但对于现在而言）这是一个值得讨论的地方

My point now, though, is that there is a lot

我现在所讲的重点是

that we could do for you who are in here,

如果你身处这个区域内并在最初的爆炸中生还

if you've survived the initial blast.

我有很多可以教你的东西

You have, when the blast goes off --

当爆炸过后－

and by the way, if it ever comes up, don't look at it.

顺便说一句，如果这些真的发生了，千万别用肉眼去看

(Laughter)

（笑声）

If you look at it, you're going to be blind,

如果你用肉眼去看，你将会失明

either temporarily or permanently.

不管是暂时性的还是永久性的

So if there's any way that you can avoid,

因此，如果可能避免的话

like, avert your eyes, that would be a good thing.

比如，把目光移开，那将是一个很好的选择

If you find yourself alive, but

如果你发现自己还活着，但是

you're in the vicinity of a nuclear weapon,

你处在一个核武器爆炸中心的附近

you have -- that's gone off --

你有－在爆炸发生之后－

you have 10 to 20 minutes, depending on the size

你有10到20分钟的逃生时间

and exactly where it went off,

具体时间取决于爆炸规模以及爆炸地点

to get out of the way before

在升起的蘑菇云所带来的

a lethal amount of radiation

致命的强辐射到来之前

comes straight down from the mushroom cloud that goes up.

逃离那个区域

In that 10 to 15 minutes, all you have to do --

在这10到15分钟内，你唯一需要做的－

and I mean this seriously --

我说真的－

is go about a mile

就是跑一英里

away from the blast.

远离爆炸点

And what happens is -- this is --

接下来将要发生的－这是－

I'm going to show you now some fallout plumes. Within 20 minutes,

我现在要向大家演示放射性坠尘。在20分钟内

it comes straight down. Within 24 hours,

坠尘直线下落；24小时内，

lethal radiation is going out with prevailing winds,

致命的辐射将随着盛行风飘散

and it's mostly in this particular direction --

基本上沿着某一特定方向

it's going northeast.

向东北方飘去

And if you're in this vicinity, you've got to get away.

如果你在这附近，就得设法逃离

So you're feeling the wind --

如果你感觉到了风

and there's tremendous wind now

感觉到这股强劲的风

that you're going to be feeling -- and you want to go

你就应该

perpendicular to the wind

沿着垂直与风向的方向逃走

[not upwind or downwind].

[不是侧风或顺风的方向]

if you are in fact able to see where the blast was in front of you.

如果你能看到爆炸发生的地方的话

You've got to get out of there.

你必须赶快离开那儿

If you don't get out of there, you're going to be exposed

如果你没有迅速离开，你很快就会近距离

to lethal radiation in very short order.

暴露在致命的辐射中

If you can't get out of there,

如果你无法离开那里

we want you to go into a shelter and stay there.

我希望你能找一个避难所躲起来

Now, in a shelter in an urban area means

躲在城市里的避难所指的是

you have to be either in a basement as deep as possible,

要么躲在地下室，越深越好

or you have to be on a floor -- on a high floor --

要么躲在楼上，越高越好

if it's a ground burst explosion, which it would be,

如果是爆炸发生在地面上（通常都是如此）

higher than the ninth floor. So you have to be tenth floor or higher,

辐射尘可能会到达9楼。所以 你需要跑到10楼或者更高的楼层

or in the basement.

或者躲到地下室

But basically, you've got to get out of town as quickly as possible.

但总的来说，你需要尽快离开这座城市，越快越好

And if you do that,

如果你这么做了

you actually can survive a nuclear blast.

你其实是可以在一次核爆炸中生还的

Over the next few days to a week,

在之后的几天到一周内

there will be a radiation cloud,

如有辐射云－

again, going with the wind, and settling down

同样随着风，然后下落

for another 15 or 20 miles out --

继续往前推进15到20英里

in this case, over Long Island.

在这个例子中会飘过长岛

And if you're in the direct fallout zone here,

如果你处于放射性坠尘经过的区域

you really have to either be sheltered or you have to get out of there,

你真的需要躲进避难所或者尽快离开

and that's clear. But if you are sheltered,

这很明显。但那是如果你能躲进避难所

you can actually survive.

你确实可以生还

The difference between knowing information

每个人是否知道

of what you're going to do personally,

应该如何逃生

and not knowing information, can save your life,

所带来的区别

and it could mean the difference between

影响了最终的死亡人数

150,000 to 200,000 fatalities

是15万还是20万

from something like this

在这个例子中

and half a million to 700,000 fatalities.

将意味着死亡人数 能否从70万减少到50万

So, response planning in the twenty-first century

所以，21世纪的核应急预案

is both possible and is essential.

不仅是可能的而且是必须的

But in 2008, there isn't one single American city

但是直到2008年，全美国没有一个城市

that has done effective plans

拥有有效的应急预案

to deal with a nuclear detonation disaster.

来应对一次核爆炸灾难

Part of the problem is that

部分原因是

the emergency planners themselves, personally,

应急预案的制定者，他们自己

are overwhelmed psychologically by the thought

都已经被核灾难这一想法

of nuclear catastrophe.

从心理上击溃了

They are paralyzed.

他们不知所措。

You say "nuclear" to them, and they're thinking,

你如果和他们说起“核”，他们会想，

"Oh my God, we're all gone. What's the point? It's futile."

“天啊，我们全都得死。 还有什么可说的呢？这都是徒劳。”

And we're trying to tell them, "It's not futile.

我们所尝试的就是告诉他们这其实并非徒劳：

We can change the survival rates

我们可以通过做一些常识普及的工作

by doing some commonsensical things."

来提高生还比例

So the goal here is to minimize fatalities.

我们的目标是将死亡人数降至最低

And I just want to leave you with the personal points

我希望留给大家一些个人的看法

that I think you might be interested in.

我认为你们可能会感兴趣的。

The key to surviving a nuclear blast

在核爆炸中生存的关键

is getting out,

就是逃出去

and not going into harm's way.

并且不要误入危险区域

That's basically all we're going to be talking about here.

这基本上就是我们接下来要讨论的全部内容

And the farther you are away in distance,

你距离爆炸点的距离越远越好

the longer it is in time

距离爆炸的时间

from the initial blast;

越长越好

and the more separation between you

尽可能地将自己

and the outside atmosphere, the better.

和外界隔绝开来

So separation -- hopefully with dirt or concrete,

所以，与外界隔绝隔绝－最好是用泥土和水泥隔绝

or being in a basement --

或者躲在地下室－

distance and time is what will save you.

保持距离，长时间远离，这些可以拯救你

So here's what you do. First of all,

这些是你应该做的。第一，

as I said, don't stare at the light flash,

正如我所说的，不要用肉眼看爆炸发出的光

if you can. I don't know you could possibly resist doing that.

如果可能的话－我其实不太相信你们能忍住不看。

But let's assume, theoretically, you want to do that.

让我们假设，从理论上而言，你会很想看。

You want to keep your mouth open, so your eardrums

你最好让嘴巴保持张开的状态，这样你的鼓膜

don't burst from the pressures.

不会在压力下破裂

If you're very close to what happened, you actually do have to duck and cover,

如果你距离爆炸发生的地方很近，你需要迅速低头并且找掩体躲起来

like Bert told you, Bert the Turtle.

正如贝尔告诉你的那样－就是那只叫贝尔的乌龟

And you want to get under something so that you're not injured

可能的话，你最好躲在某些东西下面

or killed by objects, if that's at all possible.

避免受伤或致死

You want to get away from the initial fallout mushroom cloud,

你需要远离最初爆炸形成的放射性坠尘蘑菇云

I said, in just a few minutes.

我刚刚说过，这些必须在几分钟内完成

And shelter and place. You want to move [only]

并且躲到合适的地方。你需要沿着风的方向

crosswind for 1.2 miles.

或者垂直于风的方向跑1.2英里

You know, if you're out there and you see buildings horribly destroyed

你们知道，如果你看到在那边的建筑

and down in that direction,

发生严重的损毁

less destroyed here,

但是这边的建筑损毁得没有那么严重

then you know that it was over there, the blast, and you're going this way,

那么你就可以知道爆炸发生在那边， 而你应该朝着这个方向走

as long as you're going crosswise to the wind.

同时注意垂直于风的方向走

Once you're out and evacuating,

每当你在户外或者在转移过程中

you want to keep as much of your skin,

你需要尽可能地用东西盖住自己的皮肤

your mouth and nose covered, as long as that covering

以及口鼻，只要这些覆盖物

doesn't impede you moving and getting out of there.

不会影响到你的移动和撤离

And finally, you want to get decontaminated as soon as possible.

最后，你需要尽快去除身上的放射性污染

And if you're wearing clothing, you've taken off your clothing,

如果你穿着衣服，最好找个地方把衣服脱掉

you're going to get showered down some place

并且洗个澡

and remove the radiation that would be --

从而去除辐射污染

the radioactive material that might be on you.

这些辐射物质这时候可能已经附着在你身上

And then you want to stay in shelter for 48 to 72 hours minimum,

之后你需要在避难所里呆上至少48到72小时

but you're going to wait hopefully -- you'll have your little wind-up,

接下来就是等待了，最好的情况你能有个小型的

battery-less radio,

不需要电池的发条式收音机

and you'll be waiting for people to tell you

一直等到有人告诉你

when it's safe to go outside. That's what you need to do.

什么时候外面已经安全了。 然后再走到外面来

In conclusion,

总结一下，

nuclear war is less likely than before,

核战争已经不想以前那样了

but by no means out of the question, and it's not survivable.

从前的核战争是几乎不能从中生还的。

Nuclear terrorism is possible -- it may be probable --

现在的核恐怖袭击是可能发生的， 甚至可以说很有可能发生的

but is survivable.

但是我们是有可能生还的

And this is Jack Geiger, who's one of the heroes

这是杰克·盖格，

of the U.S. public health community.

他是美国公众健康界的英雄之一

And Jack said the only way to deal

杰克说解决核问题的

with nuclear anything,

唯一方法

whether it's war or terrorism,

不管是核战争还是核恐怖袭击

is abolition of nuclear weapons.

就是废除核武器

And you want something to work on once you've fixed global warming,

如果你想在全球变暖被解决后找点事情做

I urge you to think about the fact that

我强烈建议你思考一下这个事实

we have to do something about this

我们必须采取一些行动来解决

unacceptable, inhumane

这些不能被容忍的，不人道的

reality of nuclear weapons

核武器给我们这个世界

in our world.

所带来的问题

Now, this is my favorite civil defense slide, and I --

这是我最喜欢的民事防御的宣传画

(Laughter)

（笑声）

-- I don't want to be indelicate, but

我不想成为一个粗鄙的人，不过－

this --

这个－

he's no longer in office. We don't really care, OK.

他已经不在任了，所以我们没必要认真，对吧。

This was sent to me by somebody

这是某个人给我的

who is an aficionado of civil defense procedures,

这个人非常热衷于民事防御建设

but the fact of the matter is that

但真正重要的事实是

America's gone through a very hard time.

美国已经经历了一段非常艰难的时期

We've not been focused, we've not done what we had to do,

我们没有能够专注地去完成那些我们必须完成的事情

and now we're facing the potential of

而现在我们面对的是

bad, hell on Earth.

可能将人间变成地狱的潜在危险

Thank you.

谢谢大家。