Irwin Redlener: How to survive a nuclear attack

譯者: Douglas Wong 審譯者: Shelley Krishna Tsang

So, a big question that we're facing now

我們現在面對的一個重大問題

and have been for quite a number of years now:

這個問題已經存在許多年了

are we at risk of a nuclear attack?

我們在核攻擊的威脅下嗎?

Now, there's a bigger question

現在，有一個更大的問題

that's probably actually more important than that,

這個問題比之前的問題重要

is the notion of permanently eliminating

是提議永遠消除

the possibility of a nuclear attack,

核攻擊的可能性

eliminating the threat altogether.

從而一起消滅威脅。

And I would like to make a case to you that

我想告訴你

over the years since we first developed atomic weaponry,

自從我們發明了第一個核武器

until this very moment,

到現在

we've actually lived in a dangerous nuclear world

我們其實活在一個非常危險的世界

that's characterized by two phases,

他以兩個階段為特徵

which I'm going to go through with you right now.

我們現在會一起回顧

First of all, we started off the nuclear age in 1945.

一開始，我們在1945年開始核時期

The United States had developed a couple of atomic weapons

美國研發了幾種核武器

through the Manhattan Project,

通過曼哈頓計畫

and the idea was very straightforward:

想法是很直白的

we would use the power of the atom

我們會用原子的力量

to end the atrocities and the horror

來結束這個殘酷，恐怖的

of this unending World War II

看似沒有盡頭的第二次世界大戰

that we'd been involved in in Europe and in the Pacific.

我們在歐洲和太平洋都有參戰

And in 1945,

在1945年

we were the only nuclear power.

我們是唯一的核武國家

We had a few nuclear weapons,

我們有少量的核武器

two of which we dropped on Japan, in Hiroshima,

其中兩個我們轟在了日本的廣島

a few days later in Nagasaki, in August 1945,

幾天以後在長崎，1945年8月

killing about 250,000 people between those two.

這兩次轟炸其間250,000人被奪取了生命

And for a few years,

在這之後的幾年

we were the only nuclear power on Earth.

我們是唯一的核武國家

But by 1949, the Soviet Union had decided

但是在1949年，蘇聯決定

it was unacceptable to have us as the only nuclear power,

只有美國有核武器是無法令人接受的

and they began to match what the United States had developed.

他們試圖追上美國在核武器上的科技

And from 1949 to 1985

從1949到1985年

was an extraordinary time

是一段不尋常的時期

of a buildup of a nuclear arsenal

他們在建立一個核子軍備庫

that no one could possibly have imagined

這在那時候是難以想像的

back in the 1940s.

這是1940年的時候

So by 1985 -- each of those red bombs up here

所以到1985年，這上面每一個紅色的炸彈

is equivalent of a thousands warheads --

都相當於一千個彈頭

the world had

這個世界有

65,000 nuclear warheads,

65,000個核彈頭

and seven members of something

七個會員

that came to be known as the "nuclear club."

被稱為"核俱樂部."

And it was an extraordinary time,

這是一段不尋常的時期

and I am going to go through some of the mentality

我們會去看一下人們當時的心態

that we -- that Americans and the rest of the world were experiencing.

我們－美國人和全世界的經歷

But I want to just point out to you that 95 percent

但是我想指出95%

of the nuclear weapons at any particular time

的核子彈不管在甚麼時間

since 1985 -- going forward, of course --

自從1985年－往之前看－

were part of the arsenals

都是美國和蘇聯的

of the United States and the Soviet Union.

軍火庫

After 1985, and before the break up of the Soviet Union,

1985年以後，和蘇聯分裂之前

we began to disarm

從核的角度來看

from a nuclear point of view.

我們開始卸下核武。

We began to counter-proliferate,

我們開始反擴散，

and we dropped the number of nuclear warheads in the world

我們在世界上引爆了一定數量的核彈頭

to about a total of 21,000.

一直到剩下21,000個。

It's a very difficult number to deal with,

這是一個很難解決的數字，

because what we've done is

因為我們做的是

we've quote unquote "decommissioned" some of the warheads.

引用, 使某些彈頭”退役“了

They're still probably usable. They could be "re-commissioned,"

他們可能還能使用，可以”重新啓用“

but the way they count things, which is very complicated,

但是他們數東西的方法，是非常複雜的

we think we have about a third

我們認為我們有三分之一

of the nuclear weapons we had before.

的核武器（相較以前）

But we also, in that period of time,

但是我們也，在那段時間

added two more members to the nuclear club:

加入了兩個核國家到核子俱樂部:

Pakistan and North Korea.

巴基斯坦和朝鮮。

So we stand today with a still fully armed nuclear arsenal

所以我們現在還是有全武裝的核軍備庫

among many countries around the world,

在眾多的國家之上

but a very different set of circumstances.

但是這是一個非常不一樣的情況。

So I'm going to talk about

所以我會講

a nuclear threat story in two chapters.

兩章關於核威脅的故事。

Chapter one is 1949 to 1991,

第一章是從1949到1991，

when the Soviet Union broke up,

當蘇聯解體的時候

and what we were dealing with, at that point and through those years,

我們當時面對的，以及那幾十年

was a superpowers' nuclear arms race.

是超級大國的軍備競賽。

It was characterized by

特徵是

a nation-versus-nation,

國家對國家，

very fragile standoff.

非常脆弱的僵持。

And basically,

基本上，

we lived for all those years,

我們活過那些年，

and some might argue that we still do,

有些人會爭論說我們仍然在

in a situation of

一個情況：

being on the brink, literally,

我們在地球災難的

of an apocalyptic, planetary calamity.

邊緣上

It's incredible that we actually lived through all that.

我們活過那些年是難以置信的

We were totally dependent during those years

我們當時靠的

on this amazing acronym, which is MAD.

是這令人驚歎的縮寫, MAD

It stands for mutually assured destruction.

他代表Mutually Assured Destruction.

So it meant

這意味著如果你

if you attacked us, we would attack you

如果你攻擊我們，我們也會攻擊你

virtually simultaneously,

幾乎同時，

and the end result would be a destruction

不論是你的國家還是我的

of your country and mine.

結果都是毀滅

So the threat of my own destruction

所以自我毀滅的威脅

kept me from launching

抑制我們國家向你的國家

a nuclear attack on you. That's the way we lived.

發動核攻擊。這是我們怎麼活的。

And the danger of that, of course, is that

而危險是，

a misreading of a radar screen

雷達的誤導

could actually cause a counter-launch,

有可能導致"反擊",

even though the first country had not actually launched anything.

即使第一個國家甚麼也沒有發射。

During this chapter one,

在這第一章里

there was a high level of public awareness

有高度的群眾覺知

about the potential of nuclear catastrophe,

關於這潛在的核威脅，

and an indelible image was implanted

一個不可磨滅的圖像被灌輸到

in our collective minds

我們的覺知

that, in fact, a nuclear holocaust

一場核災難

would be absolutely globally destructive

絕對全球毀滅性

and could, in some ways, mean the end of civilization as we know it.

並會，在某種程度上，意味著人類的滅亡。

So this was chapter one.

所以這是第一章

Now the odd thing is that even though

現在奇怪的是，儘管

we knew that there would be

我們知道有可能

that kind of civilization obliteration,

會造成人類滅亡，

we engaged in America in a series --

我們回應了，在美國，一系列的

and in fact, in the Soviet Union --

而且，在蘇聯

in a series of response planning.

一系列的回應計畫。

It was absolutely incredible.

這是難以置信的

So premise one is we'd be destroying the world,

所以前提一是我們會毀滅世界，

and then premise two is, why don't we get prepared for it?

而前提二是，我們為甚麼不為此作準備呢？

So what

所以我們

we offered ourselves

我們給自己的是

was a collection of things. I'm just going to go skim through a few things,

一系列的物品。我會略講一些東西，

just to jog your memories.

來帶起你的回憶。

If you're born after 1950, this is just --

如果你在1950年出生的，這只是

consider this entertainment, otherwise it's memory lane.

把這當成娛樂，不然就是回憶往事。

This was Bert the Turtle. (Video)

這是烏龜Bert.

This was basically an attempt

這是一個嘗試

to teach our schoolchildren

來教我們在學校的孩子

that if we did get engaged

如果我們遭受核攻擊

in a nuclear confrontation and atomic war,

在核衝突和核戰，

then we wanted our school children

那我們希望我們在學校的孩子

to kind of basically duck and cover.

基本上躲閃並覆蓋自己。

That was the principle. You --

這是法則。你

there would be a nuclear conflagration

會有一場核火災

about to hit us, and if you get under your desk,

快要攻擊我們了，如果你只要躲到桌底下，

things would be OK.

就不會有事了。

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

I didn't do all that well

我在醫學院里的精神病學

in psychiatry in medical school, but I was interested,

並沒有做得特別好，但是我對此感興趣，

and I think this was seriously delusional.

我覺得這是極度妄想。

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

Secondly, we told people

第二，我們告訴人們

to go down in their basements

到底下室

and build a fallout shelter.

建立一個放射性塵埃避難室。

Maybe it would be a study when we weren't having an atomic war,

也許會是一個研究，當我們不在核戰中，

or you could use it as a TV room, or, as many teenagers found out,

或許你可以用來當電視機房，或者，許多青少年發現，

a very, very safe place for a little privacy with your girlfriend.

和女友一個非常，非常安全並且私密的地方。

And actually -- so there are multiple uses of the bomb shelters.

事實上－避難室有很多用處。

Or you could buy a prefabricated bomb shelter

或者你可以買一個預製的避難室

that you could simply bury in the ground.

將他埋在底下。

Now, the bomb shelters at that point --

現在，避難室

let's say you bought a prefab one -- it would be a few hundred dollars,

假設你買一個預製的。那大概會是幾百美金，

maybe up to 500, if you got a fancy one.

說不定500美金如果你買一個特別好的，

Yet, what percentage of Americans

但是百分之多少的美國人

do you think ever had a bomb shelter in their house?

你認為有一個避難室在他們家里？

What percentage lived in a house with a bomb shelter?

百分之多少人住在一個有避難室的家？

Less than two percent. About 1.4 percent

少於2％。大概1.4%

of the population, as far as anyone knows,

的人口，至少現在知道的，

did anything,

在他們的地下室

either making a space in their basement

騰出空擋

or actually building a bomb shelter.

或者建立一個避難室。

Many buildings, public buildings, around the country --

許多建築物－這個國家里的公共建築物－

this is New York City -- had these little civil defense signs,

這是紐約市－有這些小民防標誌，

and the idea was that you would

想法是你可以

run into one of these shelters and be safe

跑進這些安全的避難所

from the nuclear weaponry.

並可以脫離核武器的威脅。

And one of the greatest governmental delusions

這是最迷惑群眾的政府措施之一

of all time was something that happened

有些事情發生在

in the early days of

早期的

the Federal Emergency Management Agency, FEMA, as we now know,

聯邦應急管理署， 我們稱之為FEMA，

and are well aware of their behaviors from Katrina.

我們從Katrina颱風的行動知道了他們。

Here is their first big public

這是他們第一個大型

announcement.

公告。

They would propose --

他們提議－他們－

actually there were about six volumes written on this --

其實他們寫了六冊書－

a crisis relocation plan

一個災難疏散計畫

that was dependent upon

這是基於

the United States having three to four days warning

美國有三到四天的預警

that the Soviets were going to attack us.

蘇聯會攻擊我們。

So the goal was to evacuate the target cities.

所以目標是疏散目標城市。

We would move people out of the target cities

我們將人們撤離目標城市

into the countryside.

到郊外。

And I'm telling you, I actually testified at the Senate

我告訴你，我在參議院作證

about the absolute ludicrous idea

關於這個荒唐的想法

that we would actually evacuate,

我們會撤離，

and actually have three or four days' warning.

並且有三或者四天的預警。

It was just completely off the wall.

這是完全不可能的。

Turns out that they had another idea

原來他們還有另一個想法

behind it, even though this was --

在這背後，即便是

they were telling the public it was to save us.

他們在告訴公眾，這會幸免我們於災難。

The idea was that we would force the Soviets

這想法是我們會逼蘇聯人

to re-target their nuclear weapons -- very expensive --

讓他們的核武器重新鎖定－這會耗費大量的金錢－

and potentially double their arsenal,

他們還可能使他們的軍備庫翻倍

to not only take out the original site,

不僅摧毀原定目標，

but take out sites where people were going.

更摧毀人們要去的目標。

This was what apparently, as it turns out, was behind all this.

這很明顯會是計畫實施的後果。

It was just really, really frightening.

這讓人十分，十分害怕。

The main point here is we were dealing with

我們的計畫

a complete disconnect from reality.

完全不現實。

The civil defense programs were disconnected

民防組織的計畫脫離了

from the reality of what we'd see in all-out nuclear war.

現實中的核戰爭爆發。

So organizations like Physicians for Social Responsibility,

所以像社會責任醫生組織，

around 1979, started saying this a lot publicly.

在1979年，開始大量地在公共場合談及這事：

They would do a bombing run. They'd go to your city,

他們會進行一系列的轟炸。他們會去你的城市，

and they'd say, "Here's a map of your city.

他們會說，“這事你城市的地圖。

Here's what's going to happen if we get a nuclear hit."

這是我們受到核攻擊後會發生的事。”

So no possibility of medical response to,

所以當核戰全面爆發時

or meaningful preparedness for

醫療部門不可能反應

all-out nuclear war.

或者作有意義的準備。

So we had to prevent nuclear war

所以我們要預防核戰

if we expected to survive.

如果我們想要存活。

This disconnect was never actually resolved.

這個問題其實從來沒有被解決。

And what happened was --

接下來發生的是

when we get in to chapter two

當我們進入第二章

of the nuclear threat era,

那個核威脅的時代

which started back in 1945.

它從1945年開始。

Chapter two starts in 1991.

第二章從1991年開始。

When the Soviet Union broke up,

當蘇聯解體，

we effectively lost that adversary

我們有效地擺脫了對手

as a potential attacker of the United States, for the most part.

蘇聯是美國的潛在侵略者，和大程度來講。

It's not completely gone. I'm going to come back to that.

它還沒有完全小時。我等一下會回到這裡。

But from 1991

但是從1991年開始

through the present time,

一直到現在，

emphasized by the attacks of 2001,

2001年的攻擊突現出了，

the idea of an all-out nuclear war

一場全面爆發的核戰的想法

has diminished and the idea of a single event,

縮小了，而一個想法

act of nuclear terrorism

恐怖分子發動核攻擊

is what we have instead.

是我們現在有的。

Although the scenario has changed

儘管情況轉變了

very considerably, the fact is

事實上

that we haven't changed our mental image

我們仍然沒有轉變我們腦中的想法

of what a nuclear war means.

一場核戰意味著甚麼。

So I'm going to tell you what the implications of that are in just a second.

所以我會告訴你那代表甚麼。

So, what is a nuclear terror threat?

所以，核恐怖威脅是甚麼？

And there's four key ingredients to describing that.

有四個要點了描述它

First thing is that the global nuclear weapons,

第一是全球核武器－

in the stockpiles that I showed you in those original maps,

在儲備物資中我向你展示了原本的地圖－

happen to be not uniformly secure.

他們並沒有那麼安全。

And it's particularly not secure

更不安全的是

in the former Soviet Union, now in Russia.

在前蘇聯，現在俄羅斯。

There are many, many sites where warheads are stored

有許多，許多擺放彈頭的地方

and, in fact, lots of sites where fissionable materials,

事實上，這些地方有很多有可分裂的材料，

like highly enriched uranium and plutonium,

像高濃度的鈾和鈈，

are absolutely not safe.

非常不安全。

They're available to be bought, stolen, whatever.

他們能夠被購買，偷走等等。

They're acquirable, let me put it that way.

這樣說吧，他們是能得到的。

From 1993 through 2006,

由1993至2006年，

the International Atomic Energy Agency

國際原子能機構

documented 175 cases of nuclear theft,

紀錄了175宗核能偷竊案，

18 of which involved highly enriched uranium or plutonium,

18宗與高濃度的鈾和鈈有關，

the key ingredients to make a nuclear weapon.

他們是製造核武器的關鍵材料。

The global stockpile of highly enriched uranium

全球大量貯備的高濃度鈾

is about 1,300, at the low end,

大概在1,300

to about 2,100 metric tons.

到2,100噸。

More than 100 megatons of this

它多餘100兆噸

is stored in particularly insecure

儲存在特別不安全的

Russian facilities.

俄羅斯設施。

How much of that do you think it would take

你覺得要多少

to actually build a 10-kiloton bomb?

能夠造出一個10千噸的炸彈？

Well, you need about 75 pounds of it.

你需要75磅

So, what I'd like to show you

我想給你看的

is

是

what it would take to hold 75 pounds

能夠容納75磅的

of highly enriched uranium.

高濃度鈾的容器。

This is not a product placement. It's just --

這不是產品推銷，這只是－

in fact, if I was Coca Cola, I'd be pretty distressed about this --

事實上，如果我是可口可樂，我會為此感到苦惱，但是－

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

-- but

但是－

basically, this is it.

基本上，就這樣了。

This is what you would need to steal or buy

這是你需要偷或買的東西

out of that 100-metric-ton stockpile

在那100頓的貯備中

that's relatively insecure

他們相較下比較不安全

to create the type of bomb

來製造用在廣島的

that was used in Hiroshima.

核彈。

Now you might want to look at plutonium

你或許想看一下鈈

as another fissionable material that you might use in a bomb.

另一個可以分裂並可以用在炸彈里的物質

That -- you'd need 10 to 13 pounds of plutonium.

你需要10到13磅左右的鈈

Now, plutonium, 10 to 13 pounds:

現在，鈈－10到13磅－

this. This is enough plutonium

這已經足以

to create a Nagasaki-size atomic weapon.

製造像用在廣島的核彈了。

Now this situation, already I --

現在的情況是，我－

you know, I don't really like thinking about this,

你要知道，我並不喜歡這樣想

although somehow I got myself a job

儘管我獲得了這份工作

where I have to think about it. So

我的工作需要我想這方面的事，所以

the point is that we're very, very insecure

重點是，我們非常，非常不安全

in terms of developing this material.

在研發這材料的方面

The second thing is, what about the know-how?

第二是，那些有這方面知識的人呢？

And there's a lot of controversy about

有很多爭論關於

whether terror organizations have the know-how

恐怖組織有那些有這方面知識的人

to actually make a nuclear weapon.

來製造一個核武器。

Well, there's a lot of know-how out there.

外面有許多有這方面知識的人。

There's an unbelievable amount of know-how out there.

有不可思議的數量的人們擁有這方面的知識。

There's detailed information on how to assemble

有詳細的如何

a nuclear weapon from parts.

從部份開始拼裝核彈的信息。

There's books about how to build a nuclear bomb.

有關於如何建造核彈的書。

There are plans for how to create a terror farm

有建造“恐怖農場”的計畫

where you could actually manufacture and develop

在那你可以建造並開發

all the components and assemble it.

全部部件，並拼裝。

All of this information is relatively available.

這些信息都是可獲得的。

If you have an undergraduate degree in physics,

如果你有一個物理的本科學位，

I would suggest --

我會建議－

although I don't, so maybe it's not even true --

儘管我不，所以這可能不是真的－

but something close to that would allow you,

但是你能附近索取的資料，

with the information that's currently available,

用這些現有的資料，

to actually build a nuclear weapon.

來造一個核武器。

The third element of the nuclear terror threat

恐怖分子核威脅的第三個要素

is that, who would actually do such a thing?

是，誰會做這種事呢？

Well, what we're seeing now is a level of terrorism

我們現在看到的恐怖威脅程度

that involves individuals who are highly organized.

那些非常有系統的人也有參與。

They are very dedicated and committed.

他們非常專心和堅定。

They are stateless.

他們沒有國籍。

Somebody once said, Al Qaeda

有人說過，基地組織

does not have a return address,

沒有回郵地址，

so if they attack us with a nuclear weapon,

所以如果他們對我們實施核攻擊

what's the response, and to whom is the response?

我們如何反應，對誰反應？

And they're retaliation-proof.

他們是無可報復的。

Since there is no real retribution possible

因為沒有懲罰

that would make any difference,

能對他們造成任何影響，

since there are people willing to actually give up their lives

有人願意獻出他們自己的生命，

in order to do a lot of damage to us,

來對我們造成大規模損傷，

it becomes apparent

很明顯

that the whole notion

同歸於盡的方法

of this mutually assured destruction would not work.

不會有用。

Here is Sulaiman Abu Ghaith,

這是Sulaiman Abu Ghaith，

and Sulaiman was a key lieutenant of Osama Bin Laden.

Sulaiman是拉登的重要上尉。

He wrote many, many times statements to this effect:

他寫過十分，十分多類似的聲明：

"we have the right to kill four million Americans,

“我們有權利去殺四百萬個美國人，

two million of whom should be children."

其中的兩百萬要是小孩。”

And we don't have to go overseas

我們不用越洋

to find people willing to do harm, for whatever their reasons.

去找願意傷害美國人的人，不論他們的原因是甚麼。

McVeigh and Nichols, and the Oklahoma City attack

McVeigh 和 Nichols 以及奧克拉荷馬州的襲擊

in the 1990s

在90年代

was a good example of homegrown terrorists.

是本土恐怖分子的好例子。

What if they had gotten their hands on a nuclear weapon?

如果他們得到核武器會怎麼樣呢？

The fourth element

第四個元素

is that the high-value U.S. targets

是美國的高價值目標

are accessible, soft and plentiful.

他們容易接近，態度偏軟，並且多。

This would be a talk for another day, but the level of the preparedness

這會是下次演講，但是美國

that the United States has achieved

預備的程度

since 9/11 of '01

自從2001年的911事件

is unbelievably inadequate.

是不可思議的不夠充分。

What you saw after Katrina

在你看完Katrina颱風襲擊美國的情況

is a very good indicator

那是一個非常好的提示

of how little prepared the United States is

美國對大型襲擊

for any kind of major attack.

有多麼準備充足。

Seven million ship cargo containers

七百萬個貨物集裝箱

come into the United States every year.

每年進入美國。

Five to seven percent only are inspected --

只有5%到7%被調查－

five to seven percent.

5%到7%。

This is Alexander Lebed,

這是Alexander Lebed,

who was a general that worked with Yeltsin,

他曾經與Yeltsin共事，

who talked about, and presented to Congress,

他談過，並向議會提出

this idea that the Russians had developed --

這個俄羅斯人所構思出來的想法

these suitcase bombs. They were very low yield --

這些手提箱炸彈。他們很難被搜出：

0.1 to one kiloton,

0.1到1千頓

Hiroshima was around 13 kilotons --

廣島的核彈大概是13千頓－

but enough to do an unbelievable amount of damage.

但是足以作出不可思議的損壞。

And Lebed came to the United States

之後Lebed來到了美國

and told us that many, many --

告訴我們許多，許多－

more than 80 of the suitcase bombs

多於80個手提箱

were actually not accountable.

其實不足一提。

And they look like this. They're basically very simple arrangements.

他們看到，是很基本的安排。

You put the elements into a suitcase.

你將元素放進手提箱。

It becomes very portable.

它變得非常方便。

The suitcase can be conveniently dropped

手提箱可以方便地被放置

in your trunk of your car.

在你的車箱。

You take it wherever you want to take it, and you can detonate it.

你帶到哪裡去都可以，你也可以引爆。

You don't want to build a suitcase bomb,

你不想造一個手提箱炸彈，

and you happen to get one of those insecure

而你恰好得到那些不安全的

nuclear warheads that exist.

存在的核彈頭－

This is the size of

它的大小

the "Little Boy" bomb that was dropped at Hiroshima.

廣島的“小男孩”核彈。

It was 9.8 feet long,

有9.8尺長，

weighed 8,800 pounds. You go down to

重8,800磅。你去你

your local rent-a-truck

本地的Rent-a-Truck

and for 50 bucks or so,

只要大概50美金，

you rent a truck that's got the right capacity,

你就可以租到一輛有足夠空間的貨車

and you take your bomb,

拿你的核彈，

you put it in the truck and you're ready to go.

並放在貨車上，你就準備就緒了。

It could happen. But what it would mean and who would survive?

這有可能發生，但是這意味著甚麼？誰會生存？

You can't get an exact number for that kind of probability,

這種可能性下你得不到明確的數字

but what I'm trying to say is that

但是我想說的是

we have all the elements of that happening.

我們有發生的所有元素。

Anybody who dismisses the thought

任何消除

of a nuclear weapon

恐怖分子使用核武器

being used by a terrorist is kidding themselves.

的想法是在開玩笑。

I think there's a lot of people in the intelligence community --

我想有許多人在這有才智的社會里，

a lot of people who deal with this work in general

很多人從事這方面的工作，

think it's almost inevitable, unless we do certain things

認為這是無可避免的，除非我們做某些事情

to really try to defuse the risk,

來解除這個危機，

like better interdiction, better prevention,

像更好的禁運，更好的預防，

better fixing, you know, better screening

更好的維修－你知道的，

of cargo containers that are coming into the country and so forth.

更好的貨櫃篩查等等。

There's a lot that can be done to make us a lot safer.

我們能做許多事情使我們更安全。

At this particular moment,

在現在這個時刻，

we actually could end up

我們可能會

seeing a nuclear detonation in one of our cities.

看到核爆在我們其中一個城市中發生。

I don't think we would see an all-out nuclear war

我不認為我們會見到一場全面拓展的核戰

any time soon, although even that is not completely off the table.

不久之後，儘管這不是全然不值得一提的。

There's still enough nuclear weapons

世界上還有足夠的核武器

in the arsenals of the superpowers

在超級大國的軍工廠

to destroy the Earth many, many times over.

來毀滅地球，許多，許多次。

There are flash points in India and Pakistan,

有衝突的地方，如印度和巴基斯坦，

in the Middle East, in North Korea,

在中東，北韓，

other places where the use of nuclear weapons,

其他地方核武使用的地方，

while initially locally,

一開始僅在本土使用，

could very rapidly

有可能很快

go into a situation

進入一個全面

where we'd be facing all-out nuclear war.

核武的狀態。

It's very unsettling.

非常讓人擔憂。

Here we go. OK.

好。我們來。

I'm back in my truck, and we drove over the Brooklyn Bridge.

我在我的貨車上剛開過Brooklyn橋。

We're coming down,

我們下橋，

and we bring that truck

將貨車開到

that you just saw

正如你剛才看到的

somewhere in here, in the Financial District.

大概這裡，在Financial District.

This is a 10-kiloton bomb,

這是一個十千頓的炸彈，

slightly smaller than was used

比以前廣島用過的

in Hiroshima. And I want to just conclude this

稍小。我想給你一些信息

by just giving you some information. I think --

來總結，我想

"news you could use" kind of concept here.

“你能用到的新聞”的概念。

So, first of all, this would be horrific

第一，駭人的程度

beyond anything we can possibly imagine.

是我們都難以想像的。

This is the ultimate.

這是最大損傷。

And if you're in the half-mile radius

如果你在核彈引爆的

of where this bomb went off,

半英里的半徑中，

you have a 90 percent chance of not making it.

你有90%的可能性會死。

If you're right where the bomb went off,

如果你正處核彈點燃的地方，

you will be vaporized. And that's --

你會蒸發，就這樣－

I'm just telling you, this is not good.

我只想告訴你，這不是好事。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

You assume that.

你假設。

Two-mile radius, you have a 50 percent chance

兩英里半徑，你有50%的機會

of being killed,

被殺，

and up to about eight miles away --

到8英里以外－

now I'm talking about killed instantly --

我現在在講馬上殺死－

somewhere between a 10 and 20 percent

在10%到20%之間

chance of getting killed.

的機會被殺死。

The thing about this is that

這意味著

the experience of the nuclear detonation is --

核彈引爆的經歷將會是－

first of all, tens of millions of degrees Fahrenheit

第一，數百萬華氏

at the core here, where it goes off,

核心中，即是被點燃的地方

and an extraordinary amount of energy

有難以置信的能量

in the form of heat, acute radiation

在這種形態的熱量，有十分眼中的輻射

and blast effects.

以及爆炸效果。

An enormous hurricane-like wind,

很大的龍捲風似的風，

and destruction of buildings almost totally,

在這黃圈內

within this yellow circle here.

建築物基本上被完全摧毀。

And what I'm going to focus on, as I come to conclusion here,

我在這裡會集中地講，總結來講，

is that, what happens to you

如果你在這裡

if you're in here?

你會發生甚麼事？

Well, if we're talking about the old days

如果我們在講舊時

of an all-out nuclear attack,

那種全面爆發的核武，

you, up here,

你，在上面，

are as dead as the people here. So it was a moot point.

跟這裡的人一樣死。所以這是無考慮意義的。

My point now, though, is that there is a lot

我的見解是，即使，有很多我們

that we could do for you who are in here,

能為你做的，

if you've survived the initial blast.

如果你存活了初始的爆炸。

You have, when the blast goes off --

當爆炸時－

and by the way, if it ever comes up, don't look at it.

順帶一提，如果真的被引爆了，不要看它。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

If you look at it, you're going to be blind,

如果你去看的話，你會變盲，

either temporarily or permanently.

不是暫時性就是永久性。

So if there's any way that you can avoid,

所以如果你能避開，

like, avert your eyes, that would be a good thing.

像轉移目光，那會是好事。

If you find yourself alive, but

如果你發現自己活著，但是

you're in the vicinity of a nuclear weapon,

你在核爆的附近，

you have -- that's gone off --

你有

you have 10 to 20 minutes, depending on the size

十到二十分鐘，基於大小

and exactly where it went off,

以及核彈在哪裡被引爆，

to get out of the way before

你要在致命的輻射

a lethal amount of radiation

從蘑菇雲掉下來

comes straight down from the mushroom cloud that goes up.

之前逃走。

In that 10 to 15 minutes, all you have to do --

在那十到十五分鐘，你要做的－

and I mean this seriously --

我是認真的－

is go about a mile

是離開核爆

away from the blast.

的一英里外

And what happens is -- this is --

發生的是－這是－

I'm going to show you now some fallout plumes. Within 20 minutes,

我會向你展示一些放射性墜塵。在二十分鐘內，

it comes straight down. Within 24 hours,

它直接掉下來；在二十四小時內，

lethal radiation is going out with prevailing winds,

致命的輻射會隨風飄，

and it's mostly in this particular direction --

大部分都會

it's going northeast.

往東北方。

And if you're in this vicinity, you've got to get away.

如果你在周圍，你必須離開。

So you're feeling the wind --

如果你感覺到風，

and there's tremendous wind now

非常大的風，

that you're going to be feeling -- and you want to go

如果你感覺到的話，你會想要往

perpendicular to the wind

風的垂直方向，

[not upwind or downwind].

[不是側風或順風]。

if you are in fact able to see where the blast was in front of you.

如果核爆發生在你的正前方。

You've got to get out of there.

你必須離開那。

If you don't get out of there, you're going to be exposed

如果你不離開，你會馬上被

to lethal radiation in very short order.

致命的輻射所感染。

If you can't get out of there,

如果你不馬上離開那里，

we want you to go into a shelter and stay there.

我們想你進入避難所，並留在那里。

Now, in a shelter in an urban area means

在城市中的避難所意味著

you have to be either in a basement as deep as possible,

你在深處的地下室

or you have to be on a floor -- on a high floor --

或你在高層

if it's a ground burst explosion, which it would be,

如果是在地上引爆的，這意味著

higher than the ninth floor. So you have to be tenth floor or higher,

不高於9樓。所以你要在10樓或更高，

or in the basement.

或者在地下室。

But basically, you've got to get out of town as quickly as possible.

但是基本上，你要儘快出城。

And if you do that,

如果你那樣做，

you actually can survive a nuclear blast.

你更有可能在核爆後生存。

Over the next few days to a week,

接下來的幾天到一個禮拜，

there will be a radiation cloud,

會有放射雲－

again, going with the wind, and settling down

會跟著風，並安定下來

for another 15 or 20 miles out --

大概15或20英里外－

in this case, over Long Island.

在這個事例中在長島上。

And if you're in the direct fallout zone here,

如果你在那裡的直接放射性墜塵區，

you really have to either be sheltered or you have to get out of there,

你一定要到避難所或者離開，

and that's clear. But if you are sheltered,

那就可以了。但是如果你在避難所，

you can actually survive.

你還能存活。

The difference between knowing information

知道信息

of what you're going to do personally,

你要做甚麼，

and not knowing information, can save your life,

和不知道信息的差別能讓你存活下來，

and it could mean the difference between

也可能會導致

150,000 to 200,000 fatalities

150,000到200,000的死亡

from something like this

從

and half a million to 700,000 fatalities.

500,000到700,000人死去。

So, response planning in the twenty-first century

所以，二十一世紀的反應計畫

is both possible and is essential.

既有可能實現，又有必要。

But in 2008, there isn't one single American city

但是在2008年，沒有一個美國城市

that has done effective plans

有一個有用的計畫

to deal with a nuclear detonation disaster.

來處理核爆危機。

Part of the problem is that

一部分的問題是

the emergency planners themselves, personally,

緊急計畫的本身，

are overwhelmed psychologically by the thought

被核災難的想法

of nuclear catastrophe.

完全淹沒了。

They are paralyzed.

他們痲痹了。

You say "nuclear" to them, and they're thinking,

你跟他們說“核”，他們就會想，

"Oh my God, we're all gone. What's the point? It's futile."

“我的天啊，我們都不會存在了。 有甚麼意思呢？我們甚麼都做不到。”

And we're trying to tell them, "It's not futile.

我們在嘗試跟他們說我們不是甚麼都做不到：

We can change the survival rates

我們能夠以常識

by doing some commonsensical things."

來改變生存率。

So the goal here is to minimize fatalities.

所以目標是講死亡人數減到最低。

And I just want to leave you with the personal points

我想給你留下一些要點

that I think you might be interested in.

我想你會感興趣。

The key to surviving a nuclear blast

生存核爆的重點

is getting out,

是逃出去，

and not going into harm's way.

並不要靠近危險的東西。

That's basically all we're going to be talking about here.

這基本上是我們全部要講的東西。

And the farther you are away in distance,

你離得越遠，

the longer it is in time

你和

from the initial blast;

第一個爆炸的時間

and the more separation between you

的距離就越大

and the outside atmosphere, the better.

在大氣層外的話，更好。

So separation -- hopefully with dirt or concrete,

所以與核爆分離－最好跟塵土或混凝土，

or being in a basement --

或者在地下室內－

distance and time is what will save you.

距離和時間能讓你存活下來。

So here's what you do. First of all,

所以這是你要做的。第一，

as I said, don't stare at the light flash,

像我剛才說的，不要看核爆的閃光

if you can. I don't know you could possibly resist doing that.

如果你可以的話－我不知道你怎麼抗拒。

But let's assume, theoretically, you want to do that.

但是假設，理論上，你想那麼做。

You want to keep your mouth open, so your eardrums

你會想要張開嘴，那樣的話你的耳膜

don't burst from the pressures.

不會因為壓力而爆裂。

If you're very close to what happened, you actually do have to duck and cover,

如果你離核爆很近，你要彎下身並遮蓋

like Bert told you, Bert the Turtle.

就像Bert跟你說的－烏龜Bert。

And you want to get under something so that you're not injured

你想到某樣東西的底下，那樣的話你不會受傷

or killed by objects, if that's at all possible.

或者被東西殺死，如果可能的話。

You want to get away from the initial fallout mushroom cloud,

你會想離開蘑菇雲的初始放射性墜塵，

I said, in just a few minutes.

我說，就在幾分鐘內，

And shelter and place. You want to move [only]

避難所和地方。你會想順風

crosswind for 1.2 miles.

或者側風走1.2英里。

You know, if you're out there and you see buildings horribly destroyed

你要知道，如果你在外面 並看到被摧毀的建築物

and down in that direction,

順著損傷較少的

less destroyed here,

建築物走，

then you know that it was over there, the blast, and you're going this way,

你知道核爆在哪裡，並且你在往那個方向走

as long as you're going crosswise to the wind.

只要你橫過風就可以了。

Once you're out and evacuating,

一旦你逃出去並在撤離，

you want to keep as much of your skin,

你會想遮蓋

your mouth and nose covered, as long as that covering

你的皮膚，你的嘴和鼻子，

doesn't impede you moving and getting out of there.

前提是遮蓋物不會阻礙你逃離。

And finally, you want to get decontaminated as soon as possible.

最後，你會想儘快淨化。

And if you're wearing clothing, you've taken off your clothing,

如果你穿著衣服，你得脫下你的衣服，

you're going to get showered down some place

你會在某個地方沖洗

and remove the radiation that would be --

移除你身上的輻射

the radioactive material that might be on you.

以及有放射性的物質。

And then you want to stay in shelter for 48 to 72 hours minimum,

你會想在避難所呆至少48到72小時，

but you're going to wait hopefully -- you'll have your little wind-up,

但是希望－你會有一台

battery-less radio,

無電池的收音機，

and you'll be waiting for people to tell you

並等待人們告訴你

when it's safe to go outside. That's what you need to do.

外面安全了。那是你要做的。

In conclusion,

最後，

nuclear war is less likely than before,

核戰沒有以前那麼可能發生，

but by no means out of the question, and it's not survivable.

但是並不能忽視，而沒有人能夠存活。

Nuclear terrorism is possible -- it may be probable --

核恐怖主義有可能發生，

but is survivable.

但是人們有可能存活。

And this is Jack Geiger, who's one of the heroes

這是Jack Geiger，

of the U.S. public health community.

他是美國公共健康社會的英雄。

And Jack said the only way to deal

Jack說唯一解決

with nuclear anything,

跟核有關係的東西，

whether it's war or terrorism,

不論是戰爭或是恐怖主義，

is abolition of nuclear weapons.

是廢除核武器。

And you want something to work on once you've fixed global warming,

你想要在全球暖化解決後做某件事。

I urge you to think about the fact that

我催促你去想

we have to do something about this

我們要對這個世界上

unacceptable, inhumane

無法令人接受、

reality of nuclear weapons

事實上不人道的核武器

in our world.

做些什麼。

Now, this is my favorite civil defense slide, and I --

這是我喜歡的民防組織幻燈片，我－

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

-- I don't want to be indelicate, but

－我不想不文雅，但是－

this --

這－

he's no longer in office. We don't really care, OK.

他不再在位了，我們不在意，好。

This was sent to me by somebody

這是某人寄給我的

who is an aficionado of civil defense procedures,

他是民防組織過程的酷愛者，

but the fact of the matter is that

事實上

America's gone through a very hard time.

美國渡過了很困難的一段時間。

We've not been focused, we've not done what we had to do,

我們沒有將注意力放在，我們要做的事，

and now we're facing the potential of

而我們現在面對的是

bad, hell on Earth.

地球上的潛在地獄。

Thank you.

謝謝。