The world doesn't need more nuclear weapons | Erika Gregory

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Camille Martínez

翻译人员: Conway Ye 校对人员: He Huang

Let me ask you all a question.

让我问大家一个问题：

How much weapons-grade nuclear material do you think it would take

你觉得需要多少军用级核原料

to level a city the size of San Francisco?

才能将旧金山这么大 的城市夷为平地？

How many of you think it would be an amount

有谁觉得大概是

about the size of this suitcase?

这个行李箱的大小？

OK. And how about this minibus?

或者是这辆小巴的大小呢？

All right.

好吧。

Well actually, under the right circumstances,

事实上，在理想情况下，

an amount of highly enriched uranium about the size of your morning latte

一杯拿铁咖啡大小的 高度浓缩铀，

would be enough to kill 100,000 people

足以在片刻之内

instantly.

杀死数十万人。

Hundreds of thousands of others would become horribly ill,

另外还有成百上千的人 会遭受可怕疾病的折磨，

and parts of the city would be uninhabitable for years,

城市的部分地区会 成为生命的禁区长达数年，

if not for decades.

甚至数十年。

But you can forget that nuclear latte,

当然，现在大家不用想这杯拿铁的事儿

because today's nuclear weapons are hundreds of times more powerful

因为当今的核武器

even than those we dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

比当年投在广岛和长崎的 原子弹还要强大数百倍。

And even a limited nuclear war involving, say, tens of nuclear weapons,

即使爆发一次小规模的核战， 假设说仅使用了十几颗核弹头，

could lead to the end of all life on the planet.

那也足以造成整个地球上生命的灭绝。

So it's really important that you know

所以各位一定要知道，

that right now we have over 15,000 nuclear weapons

现在世界上有超过15000枚核武器，

in the hands of nine nations.

掌握在九个国家的手中。

And if you live in a city or near a military facility,

如果你住在市中心 或者临近某个军事基地，

one is likely pointed right at you.

那么某颗核武器 可能正瞄准着你的位置。

In fact, if you live in any of the rural areas

而且就算你住在郊区，

where nuclear weapons are stored globally,

那正是全球核武器一般储存的地方，

one is likely pointed at you.

你仍然有可能被瞄准着。

About 1,800 of these weapons are on high alert,

其中大约有1800枚核武器 处于高度警戒状态，

which means they can be launched within 15 minutes

这意味着它们能在 十五分钟之内发动攻击

of a presidential command.

仅需要总统的一声令下。

So I know this is a bummer of an issue,

我知道这是一个令人头疼的问题，

and maybe you have that -- what was it? -- psychic fatigue

你可能觉得……怎么说来着？

that we heard about a little bit earlier.

心理疲劳，我们刚刚听过的。

So I'm going to switch gears for just a second,

所以我要暂时换一个话题，

and I'm going to talk about my imaginary friend,

我要谈谈一位我假想的朋友，

who I like to think of as Jasmine,

我将她取名为Jasmine 吧，

just for a moment.

暂时的。

Jasmine, at the age of 25,

Jasmine，25岁，

is part of a generation that is more politically and socially engaged

她属于50年之内最关注

than anything we've seen in 50 years.

政治与社会的一代人。

她和她的朋友认为自己

She and her friends think of themselves

as change agents and leaders and activists.

是改革者、领导者和积极行动者。

I think of them as Generation Possible.

我认为他们是“希望一代”。

They regularly protest about the issues they care about,

他们常常对关注的问题发声，

but nuclear weapons are not one of them, which makes sense,

但是核武问题却不是其中之一， 不过这其实可以理解，

because Jasmine was born in 1991, at the end of the Cold War.

因为Jasmine 出生在1991年， 也就是冷战结束的时期。

So she didn't grow up hearing a lot about nuclear weapons.

所以在她成长过程中 并没有经常听到核武问题的报道。

She never had to duck and cover under her desk at school.

她也从不需要弯腰躲在学校书桌下。

For Jasmine, a fallout shelter is an app in the Android store.

对于Jasmine 来说，“辐射避难所” 只是一款安卓软件的名称。

Nuclear weapons help win games.

“核武器”能帮你在游戏中取胜。

And that is really a shame,

然而这真的很遗憾，

because right now, we need Generation Possible

因为现在，我们需要这“希望一代”

to help us make some really important decisions about nuclear weapons.

在核武问题上， 为我们作出重要决定。

For instance, will we further reduce our nuclear arsenals globally,

比如，我们是要进一步减少 全球核武器军备，

or will we spend billions,

还是说我们会花费数十亿美金，

maybe a trillion dollars,

甚至上万亿美金，

to modernize them so they last throughout the 21st century,

在整个21世纪继续研发、升级核武器,

so that by the time Jasmine is my age, she's talking to her children

使得Jasmine 到我的年龄的时候， 她不得不跟她的孩子，

and maybe even her grandchildren

可能还有孙子孙女

about the threat of nuclear holocaust?

谈论核武器灾难的威胁呢？

And if you're paying any attention at all to cyberthreats,

而且，如果你关注网络攻击，

or, for instance, if you've read about the Stuxnet virus

或者，假如你听说过“震网病毒”，

or, for God's sake, if you've ever had an email account or a Yahoo account

又或者，看在上帝的份上， 如果你的邮箱或雅虎账号

or a phone hacked,

或手机曾经被侵入过，

you can imagine the whole new world of hurt that could be triggered

你便可以想象， 随着网络战争的升级，

by modernization in a period of cyberwarfare.

将会给整个世界带来多大的伤害

Now, if you're paying attention to the money,

如果你更关心金钱，

a trillion dollars could go a long way

一万亿美金可以在 很长的一段时间里

to feeding and educating and employing people,

用来教育、提供工作，养活一大批人。

all of which could reduce the threat of nuclear war to begin with.

这些都能够从源头减少核战的威胁。

So --

所以……

(Applause)

（掌声）

This is really crucial right now,

现在是非常关键的时刻，

because nuclear weapons -- they're vulnerable.

因为核武器并不稳定。

We have solid evidence

我们有确凿的证据表明

that terrorists are trying to get ahold of them.

恐怖分子正在尝试夺取它们。

Just this last spring,

就在去年春天，

when four retirees and two taxi drivers were arrested

四个退休人员和两个的士司机

in the Republic of Georgia

在格鲁吉亚被捕，

for trying to sell nuclear materials for 200 million dollars,

因为他们试图以2亿美元 的价格销售核原料，

they demonstrated that the black market for this stuff is alive and well.

这充分表明了此类交易 在黑市上存在并活跃着。

And it's really important,

这里的关键在于，

because there have been dozens of accidents

涉及核武器的意外事件

involving nuclear weapons,

已经出现过几十次了，

and I bet most of us have never heard anything about them.

我打赌绝大多数人都没有听说过。

Just here in the United States,

仅在美国这，

we've dropped nuclear weapons on the Carolinas twice.

我们的核武器在卡罗莱纳州 意外坠落过两次。

In one case, one of the bombs,

其中一次，一颗核弹，

which fell out of an Air Force plane,

从一架空军飞机中掉出，

didn't detonate

没有爆炸，

because the nuclear core was stored somewhere else on the plane.

因为核弹核心被分离储存在飞机的其他地方。

In another case, the weapon did arm when it hit the ground,

另外一次，掉落到地面的核弹已经要引爆，

and five of the switches designed to keep it from detonating failed.

有五个防止意外爆炸的保险都失效了，

Luckily, the sixth one didn't.

幸运的是，第六个保险起了效果。

But if that's not enough to get your attention,

如果这还不够引起你的注意，

there was the 1995 Black Brant incident.

在1995年的挪威火箭发射事件，

That's when Russian radar technicians saw

俄罗斯的雷达探测员 检测到一个导弹，

what they thought was a US nuclear missile

他们误以为是美国的核导弹

streaking towards Russian airspace.

正向俄罗斯飞来。

It later turned out to be a Norwegian rocket

他们后来才发现 那只是挪威的火箭，

collecting data about the northern lights.

用来收集北极光的有关数据。

But at that time,

但是那个时候，

Russian President Boris Yeltsin came within five minutes

俄罗斯总统鲍里斯·叶利钦

of launching a full-scale retaliatory nuclear attack

只差五分钟就要决定向美国发动

全副武装的复仇式核武打击。

against the United States.

So, most of the world's nuclear nations

因此世界上大多数拥核国家

have committed to getting rid of these weapons of mass destruction.

都决定逐步削减那些大规模杀伤性武器。

But consider this:

但是想想看，

the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,

“核不扩散条约”，

which is the most widely adopted arms control treaty in history

历史上被最多国家共同认可的军备控制条约

with 190 signatories,

共计190余国签字，

sets no specific date by which the world's nuclear-armed nations

却没有一个明确的目标时间

will get rid of their nuclear weapons.

来彻底消除核武器。

Now, when John F. Kennedy sent a man to the moon

当约翰·肯尼迪想要把人类送上月球，

and decided to bring him back, or decided to do both those things,

以及还想把人活着带回来时，

he didn't say, "Hey, whenever you guys get to it."

他并不是说，你们随便何时完成任务都行

He gave us a deadline.

他给了我们一个期限。

He gave us a challenge

同时这是一个挑战，

that would have been incredible just a few years earlier.

在登月计划实现的几年前 那仍然是天方夜谭。

但在挑战的压力下，

And with that challenge,

he inspired scientists and marketers,

他启发了科学家和营销者，

astronauts and schoolteachers.

宇航员和教师。

He gave us a vision.

他给我们了一片愿景。

But along with that vision,

除了这片愿景，

he also tried to give us -- and most people don't know this, either --

他也曾尝试让我们—— 其实大多数人都不知道，

he tried to give us a partner

他尝试让我们与另一国家合作，

in the form of our fiercest Cold War rival, the Soviet Union.

那就是冷战时期的劲敌——苏联。

Because part of Kennedy's vision for the Apollo program

因为肯尼迪对阿波罗计划的愿景中，

was that it be a cooperation, not a competition, with the Soviets.

是与苏联合作，而非竞争。

And apparently, Nikita Khrushchev, the Soviet Premier, agreed.

显而易见，苏共总书记 尼基塔·赫鲁晓夫同意了。

But before that cooperation could be realized,

但是在合作实现之前，

Kennedy was assassinated,

肯尼迪被刺杀了，

and that part of the vision was deferred.

这一片美好的愿景也成了泡影。

But the promise of joint innovation between these two nuclear superpowers

但是这两个强大的核武国家 之间进行合作的承诺，

wasn't totally extinguished.

并没有被完全扑灭。

Because in 1991, which is the year that Jasmine was born

因为在1991年， Jasmine 出生那年，

and the Soviet Union fell,

苏联解体了，

these two nations engaged in a project

之后这两个国家在同一个项目上的合作，

that genuinely does seem incredible today

在现在看起来都无与伦比，

in the truest sense of that word,

怎么形容都不觉得过分，

which is that the US sent cash to the Russians when they needed it most,

在俄罗斯最需要钱的时候 美国向其提供现金，

to secure loose nuclear materials

来保护核原料的安全

and to employ out-of-work nuclear scientists.

和聘用失业的核物理学家。

They worked alongside American scientists to convert weapons-grade uranium

他们和美国科学家一道， 把武器级别的高浓缩铀，

into the type of fuel that can be used for nuclear power instead.

转化成核能发电的燃料。

They called it, "Megatons to Megawatts."

他们称其为“兆吨换兆瓦”。

So the result is that for over 20 years,

结果就是，在这个计划执行了20年后，

our two nations had a program

这个对于两个国家来说，

that meant that one in 10 lightbulbs in the United States

意味着美国十分之一的灯泡

was essentially fueled by former Russian warheads.

是由之前俄罗斯的核弹头驱动的。

So, together these two nations did something truly audacious.

这两个国家携手 迈出了勇敢的一步。

But the good news is, the global community has the chance

好消息是， 如今的国际社会同样也有机会

to do something just as audacious today.

和美俄两国多年前一样勇敢。

To get rid of nuclear weapons

想要摆脱核武器，

and to end the supply of the materials required to produce them,

并停止供应核武器生产的原料，

some experts tell me would take 30 years.

一些专家告诉我会花30年。

It would take a renaissance of sorts,

这需要像文艺复兴般的创新的出现

the kinds of innovation that, for better or worse,

新的发明，不论好坏，

underpinned both the Manhattan Project, which gave rise to nuclear weapons,

带来了曼哈顿计划， 正是此计划给人来带来了核武器，

and the Megatons to Megawatts program.

而“兆吨换兆瓦”计划也是其中之一。

It would take design constraints.

还需要有设计上的约束，

These are fundamental to creativity,

这些是对创造力必需的基本，

things like a platform for international collaboration;

我们需要国际合作平台，

a date certain, which is a forcing mechanism;

我们需要一个切实可行的时间表， 作为驱使机制。

and a positive vision that inspires action.

同时也需要一个良好的愿景 来鼓励我们采取行动。

It would take us to 2045.

这大概需要进行到2045年。

Now, 2045 happens to be the 100th anniversary

2045年正好是核武器 在新墨西哥州沙漠

of the birth of nuclear weapons in the New Mexico desert.

诞生的100周年。

But it's also an important date for another reason.

但是这也是同样一个重要的时间点，

It's predicted to be the advent of the singularity,

预测称那年是“奇点”的到来，

a new moment in human development,

一个人类发展史的新时代，

where the lines between artificial intelligence and human intelligence blur,

人工智能与人类之间的界限逐渐模糊，

where computing and consciousness become almost indistinguishable

计算机和人类意识几乎无法分辨，

and advanced technologies help us solve the 21st century's greatest problems:

先进科技届时帮助我们 解决21世纪最大的问题：

hunger, energy, poverty,

饥饿，能源，贫困，

ushering in an era of abundance.

进入一个富足的时代。

And we all get to go to space

我们都能够去太空

on our way to becoming a multi-planetary species.

成为多星球的种族。

Now, the people who really believe this vision are the first to say

相信这个愿景的人说

they don't yet know precisely how we're going to get there.

他们还无法确切知道 如何实现这些愿景。

But the values behind their vision

但是他们愿景的价值

and the willingness to ask "How might we?"

以及问出“我们能怎么做？”的精神

have inspired a generation of innovators.

已经启发了一代创新者。

They're working backward from the outcomes they want,

他们从他们想要的成果出发，

using the creative problem-solving methods of collaborative design.

使用创造性攻克法来合作创新。

They're busting through obstacles.

他们跨越障碍，

They're redefining what we all consider possible.

他们重新定义人类极限。

But here's the thing:

但是问题是，

that vision of abundance isn't compatible

富足的愿景和

with a world that still relies on a 20th-century nuclear doctrine

一个依旧依赖于“同归于尽”这个陈旧的核信条

called "mutually assured destruction."

的世界不相匹配。

It has to be about building the foundations for the 22nd century.

我们现在需要创造一个 供22世纪的世界有序运行的基础。

It has to be about strategies for mutually assured prosperity

这必须是一个 可以保证共同繁荣的策略

or, at the very least, mutually assured survival.

当然 至少需要保障 人类可以和平共存。

Now, every day, I get to meet people who are real pioneers

每天，我都会与在消除核威胁

in the field of nuclear threats.

上的真正先驱们会面。

As you can see, many of them are young women,

他们中的很多人都是年轻女性，

and they're doing fiercely interesting stuff,

她们取得了一些瞩目 并且有趣的成就，

like Mareena Robinson Snowden here, who is developing new ways,

像马奈娜·鲁滨孙·斯诺登， 在研究新的方式，

better ways, to detect nuclear warheads,

更好的方式，来侦查核弹头，

which will help us overcome a critical hurdle

能够帮助我们解决国际性

to international disarmament.

解除武装的难题。

Or Melissa Hanham, who is using satellite imaging

或者麦丽莎·汉汉姆，用卫星图片

to make sense of what's going on around far-flung nuclear sites.

研究核设施的动态。

Or we have Beatrice Fihn in Europe,

或者像在欧洲的比阿特丽·费恩，

who has been campaigning to make nuclear weapons illegal

致力于宣传，让核武器在

in international courts of law,

国际法庭上非法化，

and just won a big victory at the UN last week.

上周刚在联合国取得重大胜利。

(Applause)

（掌声）

And yet,

但是，

and yet,

但是，

with all of our talk in this culture about moon shots,

在这个谈论不可能实现的文化下，

too few members of Generation Possible and those of us who mentor them

太少的“希望一代”和教导他们的我们

are taking on nuclear weapons.

在着手解决核武器。

It's as if there's a taboo.

似乎这方面是一个禁区。

But I remember something Kennedy said that has really stuck with me,

但是我记得肯尼迪说过的， 很打动我的东西：

and that is something to the effect

事实上，

that humans can be as big as the solutions

人类的伟大正体现在

to all the problems we've created.

我们能够解决所有我们造成麻烦，

No problem of human destiny, he said,

人类未来前途光明，

is beyond human beings.

未来只掌握在人类自己手中。

I believe that.

我对此深信不疑，

And I bet a lot of you here believe that, too.

我相信你们中的很多人也相信这个。

And I know Generation Possible believes it.

我知道“希望一代”也相信这个。

So it's time to commit to a date.

是时候定下一个日期。

Let's end the nuclear weapons chapter

让我们在它核武诞生的100周年，

on the 100th anniversary of its inception.

结束核武时代。

After all, by 2045, we will have held billions of people hostage

但是，直到2045年， 我们会把几十亿人当成

to the threat of nuclear annihilation.

核武器威胁的人质。

Surely, 100 years will have been enough.

无疑，一百年足够，

Surely, a century of economic development

无疑，一个世纪的经济发展

and the development of military strategy

和军事战略发展

will have given us better ways to manage global conflict.

能够给我们一个更好 控制全球冲突的方式。

Surely, if ever there was a global moon shot worth supporting,

无疑，如果有一个值得支持的 伟大的全球项目，

this is it.

就是这个了。

Now, in the face of real threats --

现在，面对真正的威胁，

for instance, North Korea's recent nuclear weapons tests,

比如，朝鲜最近的核武器测试，

which fly in the face of sanctions --

藐视制裁，

reasonable people disagree

理智的人正在争论

about whether we should maintain some number of nuclear weapons

关于我们是否需要留下一定数量的核武器

to deter aggression.

来震慑暴力。

But the question is: What's the magic number?

但是，问题是，数量应该是多少？

Is it a thousand?

一千个吗？

Is it a hundred? Ten?

一百个吗？十个？

And then we have to ask:

然后我们一定要问：

Who should be responsible for them?

“谁应该为它们承担责任？”

I think we can agree, however,

我认为我们可以同意，

that having 15,000 of them represents a greater global threat

一万五千个核武器的存在 比所谓的承诺

to Jasmine's generation than a promise.

对Jasmine 一代人的威胁更大。

So it's time we make a promise

所以是时候我们许下承诺，

of a world in which we've broken the stranglehold

保证一个世界，使核武器

that nuclear weapons have on our imaginations;

消失在我们的想象里，

in which we invest in the creative solutions

我们向具有创造力的解决方案投资，

that come from working backward from the future we desperately want,

从我们为我们渴望的未来而努力，

rather than plodding forward from a present

而不是缓慢地从现在出发，

that brings all of the mental models and biases of the past with it.

并带着过去所有的陈规旧习和偏见。

It's time we pledge our resources as leaders across the spectrum

是时候我们宣誓像领导者一样 使用我们的资源，

to work on this old problem in new ways,

用新方式解决旧的问题，

to ask, "How might we?"

去问：“我们该怎么做？”

How might we make good on a promise

我们该如何许下一个好的承诺，

of greater security for Jasmine's generation

保证Jasmine 一代人更安全的环境

in a world beyond nuclear weapons?

在一个没有核武器的世界。

I truly hope you will join us.

我真的相信你会加入我们。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

［“www.nsquare.org”］(掌声)

Thank you.

［“www.nsquare.org”］谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）