The world doesn't need more nuclear weapons | Erika Gregory

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Camille Martínez

譯者: Tongshuo Zhang 審譯者: jonathan oleg

Let me ask you all a question.

讓我問你們所有人一個問題。

How much weapons-grade nuclear material do you think it would take

你們覺得用多少核武材料

to level a city the size of San Francisco?

才能將舊金山那麼大的城市摧毀掉？

How many of you think it would be an amount

你們有多少人覺得它的量

about the size of this suitcase?

大約是一個手提箱那麽大？

OK. And how about this minibus?

好的。小巴士那麼大怎麽樣？

All right.

好吧。

Well actually, under the right circumstances,

其實，在合適的情況下，

an amount of highly enriched uranium about the size of your morning latte

一杯早晨喝的拿鐵的濃縮鈾量

would be enough to kill 100,000 people

就足夠殺死 10 萬人，

instantly.

在一瞬間。

Hundreds of thousands of others would become horribly ill,

幾十萬人會變發生恐怖病變，

and parts of the city would be uninhabitable for years,

而且城市的很多部分 在許多年裡都會寸草不生，

if not for decades.

要不就是幾十年。

But you can forget that nuclear latte,

但是你可以忘記那杯核拿鐵，

because today's nuclear weapons are hundreds of times more powerful

因為如今的核武威力比以前的強，

even than those we dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

甚至比廣島和長崎的 原子彈強了幾百倍。

And even a limited nuclear war involving, say, tens of nuclear weapons,

即使在有限制核武的戰爭中， 比如說只有幾十枚核導彈，

could lead to the end of all life on the planet.

就可以消滅地球上的所有生物。

So it's really important that you know

所以這件事很重要，你要知道

that right now we have over 15,000 nuclear weapons

如今我們已經有超過 15000 枚核武器，

in the hands of nine nations.

掌控在 9 個國家中。

And if you live in a city or near a military facility,

如果你住在一個城市， 或者在軍事設施附近，

one is likely pointed right at you.

很可能有一枚核彈正瞄準著你。

In fact, if you live in any of the rural areas

事實上，如果你們生活在偏遠地區，

where nuclear weapons are stored globally,

世界各地核武都儲存在偏遠地區，

one is likely pointed at you.

有一枚很可能正瞄準著你。

About 1,800 of these weapons are on high alert,

有大約 1800 枚隨時待命的核彈，

which means they can be launched within 15 minutes

也就是說它們在 15 分鐘內就可以發射，

of a presidential command.

在某個總統的指令下。

So I know this is a bummer of an issue,

我明白這個問題很煩人。

and maybe you have that -- what was it? -- psychic fatigue

你也可能有那個什麽來著？ ──心理疲勞？

that we heard about a little bit earlier.

我們之前有聽到一點。

So I'm going to switch gears for just a second,

所以我將要轉移話題一下，

and I'm going to talk about my imaginary friend,

我要說說我想像中的朋友，

who I like to think of as Jasmine,

我要叫她賈絲明，

just for a moment.

只要一下下。

Jasmine, at the age of 25,

賈絲明，25 歲，

is part of a generation that is more politically and socially engaged

是活躍於政治和社會的那一代人，

than anything we've seen in 50 years.

比我們 50 年中所見到的都要活躍。

She and her friends think of themselves

她和她的朋友把自己比作

as change agents and leaders and activists.

改變的代理人、領袖和積極分子。

I think of them as Generation Possible.

我認為他們是「什麼都可能世代。」

They regularly protest about the issues they care about,

他們定期抗議他們關心的問題，

but nuclear weapons are not one of them, which makes sense,

但是核武器不在範圍內， 這很說得通，

because Jasmine was born in 1991, at the end of the Cold War.

因為賈思明出生於 1991 年， 是冷戰結束的那年。

So she didn't grow up hearing a lot about nuclear weapons.

所以她在成長過程中 從來沒有聽過核武器。

She never had to duck and cover under her desk at school.

她從來沒有在學校的桌子底下 預演過躲避和遮蓋。

For Jasmine, a fallout shelter is an app in the Android store.

對於賈思明，落塵掩蔽體指的是

Android 商店裡的應用程式 異塵餘生：庇護所。

Nuclear weapons help win games.

核武器幫助她贏得遊戲勝利。

And that is really a shame,

這真是恥辱。

because right now, we need Generation Possible

因為如今，我們需要 「什麼都可能世代」

to help us make some really important decisions about nuclear weapons.

來幫助我們做出核武的重大決策。

For instance, will we further reduce our nuclear arsenals globally,

比如說，我們要不要進一步 全球性削減核武軍工廠，

or will we spend billions,

或者我們還需花幾十億、

maybe a trillion dollars,

或幾兆美元，

to modernize them so they last throughout the 21st century,

使軍工廠更現代化， 使它們撐過 21 世紀，

so that by the time Jasmine is my age, she's talking to her children

所以當賈思明到我這個年齡時， 她會跟自己的孩子們，

and maybe even her grandchildren

甚至可能她的孫子們講

about the threat of nuclear holocaust?

核浩劫威脅？

And if you're paying any attention at all to cyberthreats,

如果我們注意過網路威脅，

or, for instance, if you've read about the Stuxnet virus

比如說你知道超級病毒 Stuxnet，

or, for God's sake, if you've ever had an email account or a Yahoo account

或者我的天啊，

如果你曾有個電郵帳號、雅虎帳號，

or a phone hacked,

或者手機被黑客攻擊，

you can imagine the whole new world of hurt that could be triggered

你就可以想像出一個 充滿痛苦的新世界，

by modernization in a period of cyberwarfare.

因為網絡戰爭的現代化。

Now, if you're paying attention to the money,

如果現在你重視怎麼使用資金，

a trillion dollars could go a long way

幾十兆美元可以走很長一段路，

to feeding and educating and employing people,

被用來養活、教育、雇傭人，

all of which could reduce the threat of nuclear war to begin with.

這些都可以降低引發核戰爭的威脅。

So --

所以呢──

(Applause)

（掌聲）

This is really crucial right now,

現在是非常關鍵的，

because nuclear weapons -- they're vulnerable.

因為核武器非常脆弱。

We have solid evidence

我們有強有力的證據，

that terrorists are trying to get ahold of them.

恐怖組織的人正在嘗試去掌握它。

Just this last spring,

就在上一個春季，

when four retirees and two taxi drivers were arrested

四個退休人員和兩名計程車司機

在喬治亞共和國被捕，

in the Republic of Georgia

for trying to sell nuclear materials for 200 million dollars,

原因是販賣核武器材料， 叫價 2 億多美元，

they demonstrated that the black market for this stuff is alive and well.

他們證明了這方面的黑市很活躍。

And it's really important,

而且這很重要，

because there have been dozens of accidents

因為已經有十多起事故

involving nuclear weapons,

是跟核武器有關的，

and I bet most of us have never heard anything about them.

我敢打賭你們大部分人 都沒有聽過這些事。

Just here in the United States,

就在美國，

we've dropped nuclear weapons on the Carolinas twice.

我們已經在卡羅萊納州 投放了兩次核武器。

In one case, one of the bombs,

其中一次，有一枚炸彈

which fell out of an Air Force plane,

從空軍飛機投擲下來，

didn't detonate

卻沒有爆炸，

because the nuclear core was stored somewhere else on the plane.

因為核武核心被存放在 飛機上的其他位置。

In another case, the weapon did arm when it hit the ground,

另一次，核武觸地時已經要引爆，

and five of the switches designed to keep it from detonating failed.

而其中五個用來 防止爆炸的開關壞了，

Luckily, the sixth one didn't.

幸運的是，第六個開關沒有壞。

But if that's not enough to get your attention,

如果這些都不能吸引你的注意力，

there was the 1995 Black Brant incident.

在 1995 年發生過黑色布蘭特恐慌。

That's when Russian radar technicians saw

當時俄羅斯雷達專家看見了

what they thought was a US nuclear missile

一個他們以為是美國核導彈的東西

streaking towards Russian airspace.

飛向了俄羅斯空域。

It later turned out to be a Norwegian rocket

結果那是一枚來自挪威的火箭，

collecting data about the northern lights.

用來收集關於北極光的數據。

But at that time,

然而就在那個時刻，

Russian President Boris Yeltsin came within five minutes

俄羅斯總統葉爾欽在五分鐘內

of launching a full-scale retaliatory nuclear attack

決定開啟全規模的報復性核攻擊，

against the United States.

針對美國。

So, most of the world's nuclear nations

因此，大部分擁有核武器的國家

have committed to getting rid of these weapons of mass destruction.

已經承諾要削減 這些殺傷力很大的武器。

But consider this:

但是我們來考慮一下這個：

the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,

《核武禁擴條約》

which is the most widely adopted arms control treaty in history

是迄今為止採納最廣泛的條約，

with 190 signatories,

有 190 個簽字人，

sets no specific date by which the world's nuclear-armed nations

卻沒有為核武國家規定具體日期

will get rid of their nuclear weapons.

讓他們消除核武器。

Now, when John F. Kennedy sent a man to the moon

當甘迺迪把人送上月亮，

and decided to bring him back, or decided to do both those things,

決定把他帶回來， 或者決定倆件事都做，

he didn't say, "Hey, whenever you guys get to it."

他可沒有說： 「喂，等你準備好就出發。」

He gave us a deadline.

他給了我們一個截止日期。

He gave us a challenge

他給了我們一個挑戰，

that would have been incredible just a few years earlier.

是那之前幾年根本還想不到的事。

And with that challenge,

然而伴隨著那個挑戰，

he inspired scientists and marketers,

他啟迪了科學家和行銷者，

astronauts and schoolteachers.

太空人和學校老師。

He gave us a vision.

他給了我們一個願景，

But along with that vision,

伴隨著那個遠景，他還試著給我們

he also tried to give us -- and most people don't know this, either --

──大部分人對此並不知道── 他還嘗試給我們一個合作夥伴，

he tried to give us a partner

in the form of our fiercest Cold War rival, the Soviet Union.

以我們兇狠的冷戰對手形態 出現的蘇維埃共和國。

Because part of Kennedy's vision for the Apollo program

因為甘迺迪的 阿波羅計劃有部分願景，

was that it be a cooperation, not a competition, with the Soviets.

是要與蘇維埃合作而不是競爭。

And apparently, Nikita Khrushchev, the Soviet Premier, agreed.

很顯然，蘇聯總理赫魯雪夫同意了。

But before that cooperation could be realized,

但是就在合作能被實現之前，

Kennedy was assassinated,

甘迺迪遇刺。

and that part of the vision was deferred.

那部分的願景被推遲，

But the promise of joint innovation between these two nuclear superpowers

但是兩個核武超級大國間 共同改革的承諾

wasn't totally extinguished.

沒有完全消失。

Because in 1991, which is the year that Jasmine was born

因為在 1991 年，賈思明出生了，

and the Soviet Union fell,

與此同時蘇維埃共和國倒塌了。

these two nations engaged in a project

這兩個國家共同致力於同一個項目，

that genuinely does seem incredible today

在如今看來真的很不可思議，

in the truest sense of that word,

真的就是字面上的意思，

which is that the US sent cash to the Russians when they needed it most,

就是當俄羅斯急需要錢時 美國資助了他們，

to secure loose nuclear materials

來掌控未控制的核武器，

and to employ out-of-work nuclear scientists.

來僱傭那些失業的核專家。

They worked alongside American scientists to convert weapons-grade uranium

他們在美國科學家的陪同下，

將武器級的鈾轉換為 可用於核能的燃料。

into the type of fuel that can be used for nuclear power instead.

They called it, "Megatons to Megawatts."

他們稱這個為 「百萬噸至百萬瓦計劃。」

So the result is that for over 20 years,

所以成果就是有 20 年，

our two nations had a program

兩個國家有一個計劃，

that meant that one in 10 lightbulbs in the United States

讓美國十個燈泡中有一個

was essentially fueled by former Russian warheads.

其能源主要來自前蘇聯的核彈頭。

So, together these two nations did something truly audacious.

因此，這兩個國家真的 一起做了一件膽大的事。

But the good news is, the global community has the chance

但是好消息是，在此刻全球社區

to do something just as audacious today.

有一個機會可以做一樣大膽的事。

To get rid of nuclear weapons

為了消除核武器

and to end the supply of the materials required to produce them,

還有停止供應生產的原料，

some experts tell me would take 30 years.

有些專家告訴我需要花費 30 年。

It would take a renaissance of sorts,

它需要像文藝復興那類的創新，

the kinds of innovation that, for better or worse,

結果可能是好也可能是壞，

underpinned both the Manhattan Project, which gave rise to nuclear weapons,

可能鞏固那個造就了 核武器的曼哈頓計劃，

and the Megatons to Megawatts program.

也可能促進百萬噸至百萬瓦計劃。

It would take design constraints.

它可能要設計限制。

These are fundamental to creativity,

這些是創新的基礎，

things like a platform for international collaboration;

像是國際合作平臺；

a date certain, which is a forcing mechanism;

一個準確日期是驅使它的機制；

and a positive vision that inspires action.

一個積極的願景可以啟發行動。

It would take us to 2045.

它可能會帶我們來到 2045 年。

Now, 2045 happens to be the 100th anniversary

那一年恰好是核武器

of the birth of nuclear weapons in the New Mexico desert.

在新墨西哥沙漠誕生的 100 周年。

But it's also an important date for another reason.

而對於另一個原因 這也是一個重要的日期。

It's predicted to be the advent of the singularity,

這是被預測為奇異點出現的時刻，

a new moment in human development,

一個人類發展史的新篇章，

where the lines between artificial intelligence and human intelligence blur,

到了那個時候人工智慧 和人類智慧的界限將變得模糊，

where computing and consciousness become almost indistinguishable

計算機和自我意識變得很難區分，

and advanced technologies help us solve the 21st century's greatest problems:

先進的技術幫助我們解決了 21 世紀最嚴重的問題：

hunger, energy, poverty,

飢餓、能源、貧窮，

ushering in an era of abundance.

引領到一個富饒的時代。

And we all get to go to space

我們都到了太空，

on our way to becoming a multi-planetary species.

往變成多星球居住物種的道路上前行。

Now, the people who really believe this vision are the first to say

真的相信這些想像的人是第一個喊出

they don't yet know precisely how we're going to get there.

他們不知道到底如何實現它們的人。

But the values behind their vision

但是在這些想像背後的價值，

and the willingness to ask "How might we?"

和自發性的問「我們怎樣做？」

have inspired a generation of innovators.

已經啟發了一代創新家，

They're working backward from the outcomes they want,

他們從想要的結果開始倒退工作，

using the creative problem-solving methods of collaborative design.

運用有創意的協同設計來解決問題。

They're busting through obstacles.

他們在困難中突破自我。

They're redefining what we all consider possible.

他們重新定義了我們所謂的可能。

But here's the thing:

但是這裡有一件事：

that vision of abundance isn't compatible

那個富饒的願景與這個

with a world that still relies on a 20th-century nuclear doctrine

仍舊依賴於核信條的世界不兼容，

called "mutually assured destruction."

那個信條被叫做「同歸於盡。」

It has to be about building the foundations for the 22nd century.

我們必須為 22 世紀建立基礎。

It has to be about strategies for mutually assured prosperity

我們必須有共同繁榮的策略，

or, at the very least, mutually assured survival.

或者，至少也是共同生存的策略。

Now, every day, I get to meet people who are real pioneers

如今，每天我都會認識在核危機領域

in the field of nuclear threats.

真正的開拓者。

As you can see, many of them are young women,

正如你們看到的， 他們許多人都是年輕女性，

and they're doing fiercely interesting stuff,

她們正在做極其有趣的事情，

like Mareena Robinson Snowden here, who is developing new ways,

就像馬奈娜·魯濱孫·斯諾登這樣， 開發一些新方法，

better ways, to detect nuclear warheads,

更好的方法，來探測核彈頭。

which will help us overcome a critical hurdle

它將幫助我們克服

to international disarmament.

國際性解除武裝的嚴重阻礙。

Or Melissa Hanham, who is using satellite imaging

或者像麥麗莎·漢漢姆那樣用衛星繪圖

to make sense of what's going on around far-flung nuclear sites.

使廣布的核據點中 發生的事情變得更清晰。

Or we have Beatrice Fihn in Europe,

或者我們有在歐洲的碧翠斯·費恩，

who has been campaigning to make nuclear weapons illegal

她已經在國際法院 發起了使核武器非法化的運動。

in international courts of law,

and just won a big victory at the UN last week.

而且上周才在聯合國大會 贏得了大的勝利。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

And yet,

可是，

and yet,

可是，

with all of our talk in this culture about moon shots,

在這個談論登月（創新）的文化下，

too few members of Generation Possible and those of us who mentor them

在「什麼都可能世代」裡， 還有我們這群指導他們的人中，

are taking on nuclear weapons.

太少人在談論核武器。

It's as if there's a taboo.

這就像一個禁忌。

But I remember something Kennedy said that has really stuck with me,

但是甘迺迪說過的一段話 讓我銘記於心，

and that is something to the effect

那句話很有影響力，

that humans can be as big as the solutions

他說人類就是解決

to all the problems we've created.

自己製造出來的問題的解方。

No problem of human destiny, he said,

人類命運的問題，他說，

is beyond human beings.

沒有一個是人無法解決的。

I believe that.

我也堅信這句話。

And I bet a lot of you here believe that, too.

我也敢打賭你們很多人也相信它。

And I know Generation Possible believes it.

我認為「什麼都可能世代」也相信它。

So it's time to commit to a date.

所以是該訂下期限的時刻了。

Let's end the nuclear weapons chapter

讓我們結束核武器這一篇章，

on the 100th anniversary of its inception.

在它誕生 100 週年的時候。

After all, by 2045, we will have held billions of people hostage

畢竟，在 2045 年前，

我們將有幾十億人 作為核殲滅威脅的人質。

to the threat of nuclear annihilation.

Surely, 100 years will have been enough.

無疑，一百年時間已經足夠了。

Surely, a century of economic development

無疑，一個世紀的經濟發展

and the development of military strategy

和軍事策略的發展，

will have given us better ways to manage global conflict.

將要給我們更好的方法 來解決國際爭端。

Surely, if ever there was a global moon shot worth supporting,

無疑，如果有一個全球性的 登月計劃值得協助，

this is it.

就是這個。

Now, in the face of real threats --

現在，當我們面對真正的威脅時──

for instance, North Korea's recent nuclear weapons tests,

比如說，北韓近期的核武測試，

which fly in the face of sanctions --

馬上面臨制裁──

reasonable people disagree

有理性的人無法達到共識，

about whether we should maintain some number of nuclear weapons

是否應該保留一定數量的核武

to deter aggression.

以此來震懾侵略者。

But the question is: What's the magic number?

但是問題是： 哪個數字是神奇的數字？

Is it a thousand?

是一千？

Is it a hundred? Ten?

是一百？十？

And then we have to ask:

我們必須要問：

Who should be responsible for them?

誰應該對它們負責？

I think we can agree, however,

然而我認為我們會同意，

that having 15,000 of them represents a greater global threat

對於賈思明那代人， 15000 個核武的存在

to Jasmine's generation than a promise.

更是一個全球威脅而不是保證。

So it's time we make a promise

這是我們要承諾的時刻，

of a world in which we've broken the stranglehold

在這個我們已經打破束縛的世界，

that nuclear weapons have on our imaginations;

核武器只存在於想像；

in which we invest in the creative solutions

我們投入了很多創新的方法

that come from working backward from the future we desperately want,

從目標、從我們 亟想要的未來倒退工作，

rather than plodding forward from a present

而不是從現在帶著以前的 精神模型和偏見緩慢的前行。

that brings all of the mental models and biases of the past with it.

It's time we pledge our resources as leaders across the spectrum

這是我們以各方各業領袖身分 宣誓保證我們的資源

to work on this old problem in new ways,

要開發新的方法以解決這個舊問題，

to ask, "How might we?"

要去問，「我們會怎樣？」

How might we make good on a promise

我們怎樣為賈思明那一代 做出更安全的承諾，

of greater security for Jasmine's generation

in a world beyond nuclear weapons?

創造出超越核武之世界？

I truly hope you will join us.

我真切的希望 你們可以成為我們一員。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲和喝彩聲）

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲和喝彩聲）