The risky politics of progress | Jonathan Tepperman

63,856 views ・ 2016-09-24

TED


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翻译人员: chunhua zhang 校对人员: Haoen Shi
00:12
The conventional wisdom about our world today
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关于当今世界的传统观点认为:
00:15
is that this is a time of terrible decline.
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这是一个急剧衰退的时代
00:19
And that's not surprising, given the bad news all around us,
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而这也并不令人奇怪,考虑到我们身边无处不在的坏消息
00:23
from ISIS to inequality,
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从伊斯兰国到不平等
00:25
political dysfunction, climate change,
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政治机能失调、气候变化
00:28
Brexit, and on and on.
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英国脱欧等等等等
00:31
But here's the thing, and this may sound a little weird.
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但我是这么想的,而我的想法可能听起来有些奇怪
00:35
I actually don't buy this gloomy narrative,
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我对那些沮丧的观点并不买帐
00:38
and I don't think you should either.
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并且我希望你们也一样
00:40
Look, it's not that I don't see the problems.
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并不是说我没有看到那些问题
00:43
I read the same headlines that you do.
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我也跟你们看一样的头条
00:46
What I dispute is the conclusion that so many people draw from them,
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我所质疑的是很多人从这些头条中得出的结论
00:49
namely that we're all screwed
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即我们把一切都搞砸了
00:51
because the problems are unsolvable
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因为这些问题都无解
00:54
and our governments are useless.
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而我们的政府又没有用
00:57
Now, why do I say this?
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那么我为什么要说些呢?
00:58
It's not like I'm particularly optimistic by nature.
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并不是说我生性特别的乐观
01:02
But something about the media's constant doom-mongering
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而是媒体的那种不断地执拗于问题
01:06
with its fixation on problems and not on answers
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而不是解决之道的悲观论调
01:09
has always really bugged me.
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一直困扰着我
01:11
So a few years ago I decided,
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因此几年前我决定
01:14
well, I'm a journalist,
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嗯,既然我是一名记者
01:16
I should see if I can do any better
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那么我应该看看是否可以通过
01:18
by going around the world and actually asking folks
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周游世界并问问各地的人们
01:21
if and how they've tackled
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他们是否并且是如何解决他们所面临的大的经济
01:22
their big economic and political challenges.
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和政治挑战的来做得更好
01:26
And what I found astonished me.
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而我的发现震惊了我
01:29
It turns out that there are remarkable signs of progress out there,
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原来已经有了很多显著的进步的迹象
01:33
often in the most unexpected places,
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并且经常是在那些出人意料的地方
01:36
and they've convinced me that our great global challenges
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而这也使我确信我们面临的那些重大全球挑战
01:40
may not be so unsolvable after all.
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也许并不是那么的完全无解
01:43
Not only are there theoretical fixes;
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这里不仅仅有理论上的修复
01:45
those fixes have been tried.
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这些修复已经被投入试验
01:47
They've worked.
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并且是起作用的
01:49
And they offer hope for the rest of us.
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这也为我们其他人提供了希望
01:52
I'm going to show you what I mean
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接下来我将会展示我所要表达的意思
01:54
by telling you about how three of the countries I visited --
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通过讲述这三个我访问过的国家——
01:56
Canada, Indonesia and Mexico --
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加拿大、印度尼西亚和墨西哥——
01:58
overcame three supposedly impossible problems.
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是如何战胜那些理应无法解决的问题的
02:02
Their stories matter because they contain tools the rest of us can use,
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他们的故事很重要,因为中间包含着可以为我们所用的工具
02:06
and not just for those particular problems,
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不仅仅是对于那些特定的问题
02:09
but for many others, too.
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而且对于多数的其它问题也一样
02:13
When most people think about my homeland, Canada, today,
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如今当大多数人想到我的祖国加拿大
02:17
if they think about Canada at all,
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如果他们真的想到加拿大的话
02:19
they think cold, they think boring, they think polite.
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他们会想到寒冷、会想到无聊、会想到礼貌
02:22
They think we say "sorry" too much in our funny accents.
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他们还会想到我们用滑稽的口音不停的说“不好意思”
02:26
And that's all true.
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而这些也都是真的
02:28
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
02:29
Sorry.
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不好意思
02:30
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
02:32
But Canada's also important
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但是加拿大也是很重要的
02:35
because of its triumph over a problem
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因为它战胜了一个目前
02:37
currently tearing many other countries apart:
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正在撕裂其它许多国家的问题:
02:39
immigration.
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移民
02:41
Consider, Canada today is among the world's most welcoming nations,
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想想看,当今的加拿大是世界上最热情好客的国家之一
02:45
even compared to other immigration-friendly countries.
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即使跟其它的移民友好型国家相比也毫不逊色
02:49
Its per capita immigration rate is four times higher than France's,
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它的人均移民率比法国要高四倍
02:53
and its percentage of foreign-born residents
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而它的外国出生居民的比例
02:56
is double that of Sweden.
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是瑞典的两倍
02:58
Meanwhile, Canada admitted
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同时,加拿大去年接收的
02:59
10 times more Syrian refugees in the last year
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叙利亚难民
03:03
than did the United States.
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比美国要多十倍
03:05
(Applause)
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(掌声)
03:12
And now Canada is taking even more.
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并且现在加拿大正在接收更多的难民
03:14
And yet, if you ask Canadians
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如果你问加拿大人
03:16
what makes them proudest of their country,
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他们的国家最让他们感到骄傲的是什么
03:19
they rank "multiculturalism,"
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他们会将“多元文化”这个
03:22
a dirty word in most places,
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在很多地方都带有贬义的词语
03:24
second,
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排在第二位
03:25
ahead of hockey.
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领先于曲棍球
03:27
Hockey.
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曲棍球
03:28
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
03:31
In other words, at a time when other countries
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换句话说,当其它国家都在
03:34
are now frantically building new barriers to keep foreigners out,
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疯狂地建造新的障碍阻挡外国人时
03:37
Canadians want even more of them in.
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加拿大人却想要引进更多的外国人
03:41
Now, here's the really interesting part.
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然而真正有趣的是
03:43
Canada wasn't always like this.
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加拿大也不是一开始就这样的
03:45
Until the mid-1960s, Canada followed an explicitly racist immigration policy.
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直到1960年代中期,加拿大都奉行着一个明显带有种族歧视的移民政策
03:52
They called it "White Canada,"
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他们叫称之为“白色加拿大”
03:54
and as you can see, they were not just talking about the snow.
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而如你所知,他们并不是在谈论冰雪
03:59
So how did that Canada become today's Canada?
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那么彼时的加拿大是如何变成今日的加拿大的呢?
04:05
Well, despite what my mom in Ontario will tell you,
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嗯,不管我住在安大略省的妈妈会如何跟你说
04:07
the answer had nothing to do with virtue.
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但我想说的是这个答案跟美德没有半点关系
04:09
Canadians are not inherently better than anyone else.
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加拿大人并不是天生的就比其他人心要好
04:13
The real explanation involves the man who became Canada's leader in 1968,
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真正的答案涉及到那个在1968年成为加拿大领导人的男人
04:17
Pierre Trudeau, who is also the father of the current prime minister.
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皮埃尔·特鲁多,他也是加拿大现任总理的父亲
04:21
(Applause)
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(掌声)
04:25
The thing to know about that first Trudeau
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关于老特鲁多我们需要了解的是
04:27
is that he was very different from Canada's previous leaders.
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他跟加拿大之前的领导都不一样
04:29
He was a French speaker in a country long-dominated by its English elite.
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在一个长期被说英语的精英统治的国家,他却是说法语的
04:34
He was an intellectual.
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他是一个知识分子
04:36
He was even kind of groovy.
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他也是那种时髦的人
04:38
I mean, seriously, the guy did yoga.
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我是说真的,他还练瑜伽
04:41
He hung out with the Beatles.
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他跟披头士们一起玩
04:42
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
04:44
And like all hipsters, he could be infuriating at times.
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跟所有的潮人一样,他有时候也会愤怒
04:48
But he nevertheless pulled off
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然而他却开启了
04:50
one of the most progressive transformations any country has ever seen.
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一个在任何国家都没见过的激进的转变
04:56
His formula, I've learned, involved two parts.
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他的公式,我了解到,包含两个方面
04:58
First, Canada threw out its old race-based immigration rules,
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首先,加拿大抛弃原有的基于种族的移民法规
05:02
and it replaced them with new color-blind ones
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代之以新的无肤色歧视的法规
05:05
that emphasized education, experience and language skills instead.
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转而强调教育、经验和语言技能
05:10
And what that did was greatly increase the odds
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而这就极大的提高了
05:13
that newcomers would contribute to the economy.
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新移民对经济做出贡献的可能性
05:16
Then part two, Trudeau created the world's first policy
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另一方面,特鲁多创造出了世界上
05:20
of official multiculturalism to promote integration
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第一个官方的多元文化主义政策以促进融合
05:24
and the idea that diversity was the key to Canada's identity.
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并且多样性是加拿大形象的关键部分
05:29
Now, in the years that followed, Ottawa kept pushing this message,
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从那以后到现在,渥太华一直在传递这个信息
05:33
but at the same time, ordinary Canadians
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与此同时,普通的加拿大人
05:35
soon started to see the economic, the material benefits of multiculturalism
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很快开始见到多元文化主义带来的经济上和
05:40
all around them.
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物质上的利益无处不在
05:41
And these two influences soon combined
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而这两方面的影响很快结合在一起
05:44
to create the passionately open-minded Canada of today.
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创造出了今天这个非常开明的加拿大
05:49
Let's now turn to another country and an even tougher problem,
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现在我们转向另一个国家和一个更困难的问题
05:53
Islamic extremism.
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伊斯兰极端主义
05:55
In 1998, the people of Indonesia took to the streets
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1998年,印度尼西亚人民走上街头
05:58
and overthrew their longtime dictator, Suharto.
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推翻了长期的独裁者苏哈托
06:02
It was an amazing moment,
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那是一个令人激动的时刻
06:04
but it was also a scary one.
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但也是一个可怕的时刻
06:06
With 250 million people,
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拥有2.5亿人口的印尼
06:08
Indonesia is the largest Muslim-majority country on Earth.
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是地球上最大的以穆斯林为主的国家
06:12
It's also hot, huge and unruly,
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它还很热、很大并且难以管理
06:15
made up of 17,000 islands,
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由17000个岛屿组成
06:17
where people speak close to a thousand languages.
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全国人民说着将近1000种不同的语言
06:20
Now, Suharto had been a dictator,
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苏哈托是一个独裁者
06:23
and a nasty one.
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并且是一个很令人厌恶的独裁者
06:24
But he'd also been a pretty effective tyrant,
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但他也是一个很实在的暴君
06:27
and he'd always been careful to keep religion out of politics.
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他一直小心的不让宗教渗入到政治中来
06:31
So experts feared that without him keeping a lid on things,
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因此专家还担心如果没有他控制局面
06:34
the country would explode,
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这个国家有可能分崩离析
06:36
or religious extremists would take over
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或者宗教极端主义者可能掌管这个国家
06:38
and turn Indonesia into a tropical version of Iran.
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并将印尼变成热带地区的伊朗
06:43
And that's just what seemed to happen at first.
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一开始事情似乎是朝着那个方向发展的
06:46
In the country's first free elections, in 1999,
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1999年,在这个国家举行的第一次自由选举中
06:49
Islamist parties scored 36 percent of the vote,
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伊斯兰政党得到了36%的选票
06:52
and the islands burned
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这些岛屿开始战火不断
06:54
as riots and terror attacks killed thousands.
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骚乱和恐怖袭击导致数以千计的民众死亡
06:58
Since then, however, Indonesia has taken a surprising turn.
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然而,从那以后,印尼却发生了出人意料的转变
07:03
While ordinary folks have grown more pious on a personal level --
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从个人层面上来说普通民众变得更加虔诚了——
07:07
I saw a lot more headscarves on a recent visit
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我最近一次访问见到的戴头巾的民众
07:09
than I would have a decade ago --
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要比十年前更多了——
07:11
the country's politics have moved in the opposite direction.
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这个国家的政治却走向了一个相反的方向
07:15
Indonesia is now a pretty decent democracy.
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印尼现在是一个相当民主的国家
07:20
And yet, its Islamist parties have steadily lost support,
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而它的伊斯兰政党正在持续地失去支持
07:23
from a high of about 38 percent in 2004
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从2004年高达38%的支持率
07:26
down to 25 percent in 2014.
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降至2014年的25%
07:30
As for terrorism, it's now extremely rare.
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而恐怖主义现在也非常之少了
07:34
And while a few Indonesians have recently joined ISIS,
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虽然最近还是有些印尼人加入伊斯兰国
07:37
their number is tiny,
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但他们的数量是非常少的
07:39
far fewer in per capita terms
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按人均来计算
07:42
than the number of Belgians.
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比比利时要少得多
07:46
Try to think of one other Muslim-majority country
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想想看还有哪个以穆斯林为主的国家
07:48
that can say all those same things.
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能够做到这些
07:51
In 2014, I went to Indonesia to ask its current president,
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2014年,我到印尼去采访了现任总统
07:54
a soft-spoken technocrat named Joko Widodo,
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一个说话温柔的专家型官员,叫做佐科·维多多
07:57
"Why is Indonesia thriving when so many other Muslim states are dying?"
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“为什么在其它众多穆斯林国家走向衰退时印尼却能保持繁荣?”
08:03
"Well, what we realized," he told me,
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“嗯,我们意识到,”他告诉我
08:04
"is that to deal with extremism, we needed to deal with inequality first."
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“要想打击恐怖主义,我们首先需要消除不平等。”
08:09
See, Indonesia's religious parties, like similar parties elsewhere,
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瞧,印尼的宗教政党像其它类似的政党一样
08:13
had tended to focus on things like reducing poverty and cutting corruption.
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趋向于聚焦在减少贫困和腐败的问题上
08:18
So that's what Joko and his predecessors did too,
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佐科和他的前任们做的另一件事
08:20
thereby stealing the Islamists' thunder.
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就是降低伊斯兰主义的影响
08:23
They also cracked down hard on terrorism,
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他们还强力打击了恐怖主义
08:26
but Indonesia's democrats have learned a key lesson
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但是印尼的民主人士从独裁统治的
08:28
from the dark years of dictatorship,
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黑暗岁月里也学到了一个很重要的教训
08:30
namely that repression only creates more extremism.
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即压制只会造就更多的恐怖主义
08:36
So they waged their war with extraordinary delicacy.
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因此他们非常精密地发动了他们的战争
08:40
They used the police instead of the army.
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他们使用警察而不是军队
08:42
They only detained suspects if they had enough evidence.
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他们只在有足够证据的情况下才拘留嫌犯
08:45
They held public trials.
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他们实行公开审判
08:46
They even sent liberal imams into the jails
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他们甚至还派开明的阿訇去监狱
08:49
to persuade the jihadists that terror is un-Islamic.
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劝说圣战主义者,告诉他们恐怖活动是反伊斯兰的
08:52
And all of this paid off in spectacular fashion,
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所有的这些获得了巨大的回报
08:55
creating the kind of country that was unimaginable 20 years ago.
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创造了一个20年前无法想象得到的国家
09:00
So at this point, my optimism should, I hope,
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因此在这一点上,我的乐观应该,我希望
09:03
be starting to make a bit more sense.
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开始变得更加有意义了
09:05
Neither immigration nor Islamic extremism are impossible to deal with.
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移民问题和伊斯兰恐怖主义都不是不可能解决的
09:10
Join me now on one last trip,
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现在跟我来看看最后的这个例子
09:12
this time to Mexico.
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这一次我们转向墨西哥
09:14
Now, of our three stories, this one probably surprised me the most,
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在所有三个故事中,这一个可能是最令我惊讶的
09:18
since as you all know,
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正如你们所知
09:19
the country is still struggling with so many problems.
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这个国家仍然在跟很多问题做斗争
09:22
And yet, a few years ago, Mexico did something
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然而,几年前墨西哥做了一件
09:25
that many other countries from France to India to the United States
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很多其它国家,从法国、印度到美国
09:30
can still only dream of.
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现在仍然只能梦想的事情
09:32
It shattered the political paralysis that had gripped it for years.
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那是它打破了困扰了好多年的政治僵局
09:37
To understand how, we need to rewind to the year 2000,
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要想理解的它是怎样做到的,我们需要倒回到2000年
09:40
when Mexico finally became a democracy.
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那时墨西哥终于成为了一个民主国家
09:42
Rather than use their new freedoms to fight for reform,
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墨西哥的政客们不是利用新获得的自由去推动改革
09:47
Mexico's politicians used them to fight one another.
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而是利用它们去互相攻击
09:50
Congress deadlocked, and the country's problems --
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国会陷入僵持,而这个国家面临的问题——
09:53
drugs, poverty, crime, corruption --
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毒品、贫困、犯罪、腐败——
09:56
spun out of control.
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都失去了控制
09:58
Things got so bad that in 2008,
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到了2008年,情况已经变得非常糟糕了
10:00
the Pentagon warned that Mexico risked collapse.
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五角大楼警告说墨西哥有崩溃的风险
10:04
Then in 2012, this guy named Enrique Peña Nieto
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然后到了2012的年,这个叫做恩里克·培尼亚·涅托的家伙
10:09
somehow got himself elected president.
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不知怎么的选上了总统
10:11
Now, this Peña hardly inspired much confidence at first.
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这个培尼亚一开始就艰难地激发了人们的自信心
10:16
Sure, he was handsome,
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当然,他很帅
10:18
but he came from Mexico's corrupt old ruling party, the PRI,
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他来自墨西哥腐败的旧执政党,革命制度党
10:22
and he was a notorious womanizer.
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并且是一个臭名昭著的花花公子
10:26
In fact, he seemed like such a pretty boy lightweight
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事实上,他看起来完全像是一个无足轻重的小人物
10:29
that women called him "bombón," sweetie,
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在竞选集会上
10:32
at campaign rallies.
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妇女们叫他夹心巧克力,亲爱的
10:35
And yet this same bombón soon surprised everyone
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而就是这个夹心巧克力很快就
10:39
by hammering out a truce
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通过让这个国家三个互相争斗的政党
10:40
between the country's three warring political parties.
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达成休战协议而令人刮目相看
10:43
And over the next 18 months, they together passed
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接下来的18个月,他们一起通过了
10:45
an incredibly comprehensive set of reforms.
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一系列令人难以置信的全面的改革方案
10:48
They busted open Mexico's smothering monopolies.
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他们破除了墨西哥令人窒息的垄断
10:51
They liberalized its rusting energy sector.
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他们放宽了对已经生锈的能源领域的限制
10:55
They restructured its failing schools, and much more.
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他们重整了那些不合格的学校等等
10:58
To appreciate the scale of this accomplishment,
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要想领会这些成就的份量
11:00
try to imagine the US Congress passing immigration reform,
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那么试着去想像一下美国国会通过移民改革方案
11:04
campaign finance reform and banking reform.
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竞选经费改革以及银行改革方案
11:07
Now, try to imagine Congress doing it all at the same time.
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现在,再想像一下国会同时讨论并通过这三个方案
11:11
That's what Mexico did.
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这就是墨西哥所做到的
11:14
Not long ago, I met with Peña and asked how he managed it all.
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不久前,我见到了培尼亚并问他是如何做到的
11:18
The President flashed me his famous twinkly smile --
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这位总统用他那有名的微笑回应了我
11:21
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
11:24
and told me that the short answer was "compromiso," compromise.
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并且跟我说简单地回答呢,是妥协
11:29
Of course, I pushed him for details,
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当然,我追问了细节
11:31
and the long answer that came out was essentially
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然后长一点的答案基本上就是
11:33
"compromise, compromise and more compromise."
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妥协、妥协、更多的妥协
11:37
See, Peña knew that he needed to build trust early,
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培尼亚知道他需要尽早建立起信任
11:40
so he started talking to the opposition just days after his election.
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所以当选几天后他就开始与反对派对话
11:43
To ward off pressure from special interests,
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为了避免来自特殊利益集团的压力
11:46
he kept their meetings small and secret,
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他们举行小型和秘密的会谈
11:49
and many of the participants later told me that it was this intimacy,
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许多参会者后来告诉我这些会谈显得很亲密
11:53
plus a lot of shared tequila,
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再加上大家共享了很多龙舌兰酒
11:55
that helped build confidence.
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使得大家都建立起了信心
11:57
So did the fact that all decisions had to be unanimous,
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事实上所有的决定都要达成一致意见
12:00
and that Peña even agreed to pass some of the other party's priorities
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培亚尼甚至同意让一些其它政党想要优先
12:04
before his own.
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达成的议案先于自己的议案通过
12:06
As Santiago Creel, an opposition senator, put it to me,
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正如反对派议会圣地亚哥·克里尔所说
12:09
"Look, I'm not saying that I'm special or that anyone is special,
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“我不是说我很特别或者其他作何人很特别,
12:14
but that group, that was special."
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而是这个团队很特别。”
12:18
The proof?
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证据呢?
12:19
When Peña was sworn in, the pact held,
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当培尼亚宣誓就职时,协议也签订了
12:22
and Mexico moved forward for the first time in years.
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而墨西哥也在这么多年来第一次朝前发展
12:27
Bueno.
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非常好
12:28
So now we've seen how these three countries
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现在我们看过了这三个国家
12:31
overcame three of their great challenges.
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是如何克服他们面临的三个巨大挑战的
12:33
And that's very nice for them, right?
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很为他们感到高兴,是吗?
12:35
But what good does it do the rest of us?
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那么这对我们来说又有什么好处呢?
12:39
Well, in the course of studying these and a bunch of other success stories,
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在研究这些故事以及其它成功的故事的过程中
12:42
like the way Rwanda pulled itself back together after civil war
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比如说卢旺达如何在内战后重新团结起来
12:46
or Brazil has reduced inequality,
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或者巴西是怎样减少不平等的
12:49
or South Korea has kept its economy growing faster and for longer
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又或者韩国如何保持经济长期高速地增长
12:53
than any other country on Earth,
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还有其它一些国家的故事
12:55
I've noticed a few common threads.
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我注意到了一些共同点
12:57
Now, before describing them, I need to add a caveat.
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在我讲述它们之前,我想先说明一下
13:00
I realize, of course, that all countries are unique.
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我注意到,当然,每个国家都是独一无二的
13:03
So you can't simply take what worked in one,
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所以你不能简单地把对某个国家有用的东西
13:06
port it to another and expect it to work there too.
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放到另一个国家然后期待它也能产生效果
13:08
Nor do specific solutions work forever.
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没有哪个特定的方案是一直有效的
13:11
You've got to adapt them as circumstances change.
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你得根据环境去调配它们
13:14
That said, by stripping these stories to their essence,
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也就是说,只要剥开故事的表象看到本质
13:18
you absolutely can distill a few common tools for problem-solving
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你就能从中提取一些解决问题的通用工具
13:23
that will work in other countries
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并且可以使用在其它的国家
13:26
and in boardrooms
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使用在会议当中
13:27
and in all sorts of other contexts, too.
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以及其它的方方面面
13:30
Number one, embrace the extreme.
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首先,接受极端
13:33
In all the stories we've just looked at,
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在所有我们刚刚看到的故事中
13:35
salvation came at a moment of existential peril.
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拯救都发生在危机中的某一时刻
13:39
And that was no coincidence.
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这绝非巧合
13:41
Take Canada: when Trudeau took office, he faced two looming dangers.
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就加拿大而言,当特鲁多就任时,面临两大潜在的危险
13:46
First, though his vast, underpopulated country
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首先,尽管他这个地广人稀的国家
13:49
badly needed more bodies,
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非常需要更多的劳动力
13:50
its preferred source for white workers, Europe,
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但它首选的白人劳动力来源地欧洲
13:53
had just stopped exporting them as it finally recovered from World War II.
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却随着自身从二战中恢复过来而停止了劳动力的出口
13:57
The other problem was that Canada's long cold war
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另一个问题是加拿大国内的法语群体
14:00
between its French and its English communities
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和英语群体之间的长期冷战
14:03
had just become a hot one.
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也变成了热战
14:05
Quebec was threatening to secede,
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魁北克威胁着要独立
14:07
and Canadians were actually killing other Canadians over politics.
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并且加拿大人在政治上互相伤害
14:11
Now, countries face crises all the time. Right?
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国家总是面临危机,对吧?
14:14
That's nothing special.
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这没什么特别的
14:16
But Trudeau's genius was to realize that Canada's crisis
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但是特鲁多的天才之处是意识到加拿大的危机
14:20
had swept away all the hurdles that usually block reform.
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正好扫清了阻碍改革的所有障碍
14:24
Canada had to open up. It had no choice.
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加拿大需要开放,对此它别无选择
14:29
And it had to rethink its identity.
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并且它需要重新思考自己的国家形象
14:30
Again, it had no choice.
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而这也是别无选择的
14:32
And that gave Trudeau a once-in-a-generation opportunity
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这就给了特鲁多一个千载难逢的机会
14:36
to break the old rules and write new ones.
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去打破旧规则并书写新规则
14:39
And like all our other heroes, he was smart enough to seize it.
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像所有其他的英雄一样,他聪明地抓住了机会
14:44
Number two, there's power in promiscuous thinking.
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第二,胡思乱想的力量
14:48
Another striking similarity among good problem-solvers
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另一个好的问题解决者的显著相似点
14:51
is that they're all pragmatists.
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是他们都是实用主义者
14:53
They'll steal the best answers from wherever they find them,
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他们会窃取最好的答案,不管这答案来自哪里
14:56
and they don't let details
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并且他们不会让诸如政党
14:57
like party or ideology or sentimentality get in their way.
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意识形态或情感之类的细节来挡道
15:03
As I mentioned earlier, Indonesia's democrats were clever enough
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正如我之前提到的,印尼的民主主义者非常聪明地
15:06
to steal many of the Islamists' best campaign promises for themselves.
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窃取了很多伊斯兰主义的竞选承诺来为已所用
15:11
They even invited some of the radicals into their governing coalition.
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他们甚至邀请了一些激进派进入到执政联盟
15:15
Now, that horrified a lot of secular Indonesians.
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这一举动吓坏了很多世俗的印尼人
15:19
But by forcing the radicals to actually help govern,
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但是通过迫使这些激进派去真正的帮助治理国家
15:24
it quickly exposed the fact that they weren't any good at the job,
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迅速地暴露出他们根本不能胜任这些工作的事实
15:28
and it got them mixed up in all of the grubby compromises
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并且他们与那些肮脏的妥协混淆不清
15:31
and petty humiliations that are part of everyday politics.
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而卑微是日常政治生活的一部分
15:34
And that hurt their image so badly that they've never recovered.
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这些使得他们的形象遭受重创,直到现在都没翻过身来
15:39
Number three,
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第三
15:40
please all of the people some of the time.
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有时候需要取悦所有的人
15:44
I know I just mentioned how crises can grant leaders extraordinary freedoms.
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我知道我刚刚提到过危机能够给领导人提供非凡的自由
15:49
And that's true, but problem-solving often requires more than just boldness.
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那是事实,但是解决问题通常不仅仅需要勇敢
15:53
It takes showing restraint, too,
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当碰到你不愿意去做的事时
15:55
just when that's the last thing you want to do.
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还要表现出克制
15:58
Take Trudeau: when he took office,
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以特鲁多为例:当他就任时
16:00
he could easily have put his core constituency,
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他可以轻易地把自己的核心支持者
16:03
that is Canada's French community, first.
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也就是加拿大的法语群体放在优先的位置
16:05
He could have pleased some of the people all of the time.
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他可以一直取悦这一部分人
16:09
And Peña could have used his power to keep attacking the opposition,
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而培尼亚也可以用他的权力去继续攻击反对派
16:13
as was traditional in Mexico.
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就像之前的墨西哥传统政坛一样
16:15
Yet he chose to embrace his enemies instead,
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但是他选择了拥抱自己的敌人
16:18
while forcing his own party to compromise.
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同进迫使他所在的政党去妥协
16:20
And Trudeau pushed everyone to stop thinking in tribal terms
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特鲁多促使大家都不再去想部落
16:25
and to see multiculturalism, not language and not skin color,
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并且去考虑用多元文化主义,而不是语言和肤色
16:29
as what made them quintessentially Canadian.
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去作为典型加拿大人的标志
16:32
Nobody got everything they wanted,
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没有人得到了自己想要的一切
16:35
but everyone got just enough that the bargains held.
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但每一个人通过讨价还价都得到了满足
16:40
So at this point you may be thinking,
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所以此时此刻你可能在想
16:43
"OK, Tepperman,
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“好吧,特普曼
16:44
if the fixes really are out there like you keep insisting,
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如果这些修复像你所坚持的那样真的存在
16:47
then why aren't more countries already using them?"
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那么为什么没有更多的国家使用它们?”
16:50
It's not like they require special powers to pull off.
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不是说它们需要什么特别的力量去实现
16:53
I mean, none of the leaders we've just looked at were superheroes.
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我是说,我们刚才所说的几位领导人没有一个是超级英雄
16:56
They didn't accomplish anything on their own,
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他们个人并没有达成什么成就
16:59
and they all had plenty of flaws.
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他们都有一大堆的缺点
17:01
Take Indonesia's first democratic president,
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就说印尼的第一位民选总统
17:03
Abdurrahman Wahid.
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阿卜杜勒拉赫曼·瓦希德
17:05
This man was so powerfully uncharismatic
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这么一个魅力强大的人
17:08
that he once fell asleep
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有一次竟然
17:10
in the middle of his own speech.
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在自己的演讲中睡着了
17:12
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
17:14
True story.
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这是真事
17:19
So what this tells us is that the real obstacle is not ability,
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这个故事告诉我们真正的障碍不是能力
17:23
and it's not circumstances.
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不是环境
17:25
It's something much simpler.
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而是一些更简单的东西
17:27
Making big changes involves taking big risks,
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要做大的改变就要承担大的风险
17:31
and taking big risks is scary.
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而承担大的风险是很可怕的
17:34
Overcoming that fear requires guts,
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克服那种恐惧需要勇气
17:37
and as you all know,
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而正如你所知
17:39
gutsy politicians are painfully rare.
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勇敢的政治家少之又少
17:43
But that doesn't mean we voters
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但那并不意味着我们这些选民
17:45
can't demand courage from our political leaders.
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不能要求我们的政治领导人拿出勇气来
17:48
I mean, that's why we put them in office in the first place.
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我的意思是,那正是当初我们选他们的原因
17:51
And given the state of the world today, there's really no other option.
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考虑到当今世界的现状,我们真的没有其它的选择
17:55
The answers are out there,
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答案就在那
17:58
but now it's up to us
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现在就靠我们
18:01
to elect more women and men
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去选出更多有足够勇气的
18:03
brave enough to find them,
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女人和男人去找到它们
18:06
to steal them
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窃取它们
18:07
and to make them work.
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并使它们为我所用
18:09
Thank you.
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谢谢
18:10
(Applause)
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(掌声)
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