The risky politics of progress | Jonathan Tepperman

63,875 views ・ 2016-09-24

TED


請雙擊下方英文字幕播放視頻。

譯者: Nan Liu 審譯者: 易帆 余
00:12
The conventional wisdom about our world today
0
12760
2816
傳統老一輩對世界的看法
00:15
is that this is a time of terrible decline.
1
15600
3120
認為現在是一個相當墮落的年代。
00:19
And that's not surprising, given the bad news all around us,
2
19640
4056
看看我們身邊的壞消息, 會有這種看法並不讓人吃驚,
00:23
from ISIS to inequality,
3
23720
2096
從 ISIS 恐怖組織到社會不公、
00:25
political dysfunction, climate change,
4
25840
2416
政治無能、氣候變化、
00:28
Brexit, and on and on.
5
28280
2040
英國退出歐盟,等等。
00:31
But here's the thing, and this may sound a little weird.
6
31760
2920
但我要說的是, 這聽起來可能有點怪。
00:35
I actually don't buy this gloomy narrative,
7
35640
2360
實際上我不贊同這種悲觀的論述,
00:38
and I don't think you should either.
8
38960
1776
我想你們應該也別贊同。
00:40
Look, it's not that I don't see the problems.
9
40760
2496
請注意,我並不是沒有 注意到這些問題。
00:43
I read the same headlines that you do.
10
43280
1840
我和各位閱讀的 新聞標題都是一樣的。
00:46
What I dispute is the conclusion that so many people draw from them,
11
46000
3816
我不認同標題黨的結論,
00:49
namely that we're all screwed
12
49840
1896
說的好像我們都很爛一樣,
00:51
because the problems are unsolvable
13
51760
3096
因為好像我們都無法解決問題,
00:54
and our governments are useless.
14
54880
2336
而且我們的政府很無能。
00:57
Now, why do I say this?
15
57240
1376
我為什麼要說這個?
00:58
It's not like I'm particularly optimistic by nature.
16
58640
3696
並不是我天生就特別樂觀,
01:02
But something about the media's constant doom-mongering
17
62360
3696
但是媒體持續散布這些負面消息,
01:06
with its fixation on problems and not on answers
18
66080
3696
把焦點放在問題而不是解決方案上,
01:09
has always really bugged me.
19
69800
2136
讓我一直很惱怒。
01:11
So a few years ago I decided,
20
71960
2096
所以幾年前,我決定,
01:14
well, I'm a journalist,
21
74080
1896
嗯, 我是一名記者,
01:16
I should see if I can do any better
22
76000
1976
我在想,我應該去試試我是否可以
01:18
by going around the world and actually asking folks
23
78000
3536
藉由採訪世界各地的人民, 讓世界變得更好,
01:21
if and how they've tackled
24
81560
1256
問問他們在面臨巨大的 經濟和政治挑戰時,
01:22
their big economic and political challenges.
25
82840
2480
是如何解決的。
01:26
And what I found astonished me.
26
86760
1840
令我相當震驚的是,
01:29
It turns out that there are remarkable signs of progress out there,
27
89280
3920
我發現,世界進步的狀況相當驚人,
01:33
often in the most unexpected places,
28
93720
3056
且經常出現在一些 最意想不到的地方,
01:36
and they've convinced me that our great global challenges
29
96800
3176
而且他們讓我確信 我們巨大的全球性挑戰
01:40
may not be so unsolvable after all.
30
100000
3016
也許沒有想像中的困難。
01:43
Not only are there theoretical fixes;
31
103040
2696
不僅理論上可以解決;
01:45
those fixes have been tried.
32
105760
2096
而且那些方法已經被試驗過了,
01:47
They've worked.
33
107880
1736
它們的確有效。
01:49
And they offer hope for the rest of us.
34
109640
2000
而這也為我們其他人帶來了希望。
01:52
I'm going to show you what I mean
35
112400
1616
我會藉由我去過的三個國家
01:54
by telling you about how three of the countries I visited --
36
114040
2856
來向各位說明我的看法——
01:56
Canada, Indonesia and Mexico --
37
116920
1616
加拿大、印尼和墨西哥——
01:58
overcame three supposedly impossible problems.
38
118560
3320
他們是如何克服 三個似乎不可能解決的問題。
02:02
Their stories matter because they contain tools the rest of us can use,
39
122720
4096
他們的故事很重要,因為裡面包含了 可以解決我們問題的工具,
02:06
and not just for those particular problems,
40
126840
2936
而且不僅僅可以解決 一些特定的問題,
02:09
but for many others, too.
41
129800
1360
還可以解決許多其它的問題。
02:13
When most people think about my homeland, Canada, today,
42
133120
4216
當大多數人現在想到 我的家鄉──加拿大──的時候,
02:17
if they think about Canada at all,
43
137360
1620
他們能想到加拿大的就是……
02:19
they think cold, they think boring, they think polite.
44
139004
3612
寒冷、無聊,但很有禮貌。
02:22
They think we say "sorry" too much in our funny accents.
45
142639
3201
他們認為我們說 「對不起 」時的口音很有趣。
02:26
And that's all true.
46
146800
1216
這些都是事實。
02:28
(Laughter)
47
148040
1536
(笑聲)
02:29
Sorry.
48
149600
1216
「對不起 」。
02:30
(Laughter)
49
150840
1496
(笑聲)
02:32
But Canada's also important
50
152360
1720
但是加拿大也很重要,
02:35
because of its triumph over a problem
51
155240
1816
因為他們解決了一個
02:37
currently tearing many other countries apart:
52
157080
2656
目前很多國家四分五裂的問題:
02:39
immigration.
53
159760
1296
移民。
02:41
Consider, Canada today is among the world's most welcoming nations,
54
161080
4416
思考一下,加拿大是現今世上 最熱情的國家之一,
02:45
even compared to other immigration-friendly countries.
55
165520
3656
比起其它移民政策寬鬆的 國家還要熱情。
02:49
Its per capita immigration rate is four times higher than France's,
56
169200
4736
加拿大的平均移民人數 比法國高出四倍,
02:53
and its percentage of foreign-born residents
57
173960
2176
而且加拿大在國外出生的居民
02:56
is double that of Sweden.
58
176160
1896
是瑞典的兩倍。
02:58
Meanwhile, Canada admitted
59
178080
1736
同時,加拿大去年接納的
02:59
10 times more Syrian refugees in the last year
60
179840
3736
敘利亞難民比美國接納的還多十倍。
03:03
than did the United States.
61
183600
1696
03:05
(Applause)
62
185320
2240
(掌聲)
03:12
And now Canada is taking even more.
63
192480
2456
而且現在加拿大還在接收更多難民。
03:14
And yet, if you ask Canadians
64
194960
1856
但是,如果你問加拿大人
03:16
what makes them proudest of their country,
65
196840
2656
什麼最讓他們引以為傲,
03:19
they rank "multiculturalism,"
66
199520
2456
他們把「多元文化」,
03:22
a dirty word in most places,
67
202000
2216
一個在多數地方不受歡迎的詞語,
03:24
second,
68
204240
1216
排在第二,
03:25
ahead of hockey.
69
205480
1560
排名在曲棍球之前,
03:27
Hockey.
70
207720
1216
曲棍球。
03:28
(Laughter)
71
208960
2040
(笑聲)
03:31
In other words, at a time when other countries
72
211960
2176
換句話說,當其他國家
03:34
are now frantically building new barriers to keep foreigners out,
73
214160
3256
拼命製造障礙來 阻擋外來移民的時候,
03:37
Canadians want even more of them in.
74
217440
2880
加拿大人想讓更多的移民進來。
03:41
Now, here's the really interesting part.
75
221320
2176
接下來是很有趣的部分。
03:43
Canada wasn't always like this.
76
223520
2416
加拿大不是一直都是這樣的。
03:45
Until the mid-1960s, Canada followed an explicitly racist immigration policy.
77
225960
5440
直到 20 世紀 60 年代中期,
加拿大都奉行帶有明確 種族色彩的移民政策。
03:52
They called it "White Canada,"
78
232480
2296
他們把這個政策稱作 「白色加拿大」,
03:54
and as you can see, they were not just talking about the snow.
79
234800
2920
正如你們所見, 他們談的不只有白雪。
03:59
So how did that Canada become today's Canada?
80
239480
4800
那麼過去的加拿大 是如何成為現在的加拿大?
04:05
Well, despite what my mom in Ontario will tell you,
81
245320
2416
儘管我住在安大略省的母親告訴你,
04:07
the answer had nothing to do with virtue.
82
247760
1976
問題的答案和美德無關。
04:09
Canadians are not inherently better than anyone else.
83
249760
3376
加拿大人不是天生就比其他人善良。
04:13
The real explanation involves the man who became Canada's leader in 1968,
84
253160
4656
真正的答案與在 1968 年成為 加拿大領導人的那個人有關。
04:17
Pierre Trudeau, who is also the father of the current prime minister.
85
257840
3256
皮埃爾·特魯多,他也是現任 加拿大總理的父親。
04:21
(Applause)
86
261120
2400
(掌聲)
04:25
The thing to know about that first Trudeau
87
265000
2016
關於特魯多,首先我們要知道
04:27
is that he was very different from Canada's previous leaders.
88
267040
2895
他不同於以往的加拿大領導人。
04:29
He was a French speaker in a country long-dominated by its English elite.
89
269959
4497
他在英文精英長期統治的 國家裡,說的是法語。
04:34
He was an intellectual.
90
274480
1576
他是知識分子,
04:36
He was even kind of groovy.
91
276080
2776
他甚至有點時髦,
04:38
I mean, seriously, the guy did yoga.
92
278880
2656
說真的,這傢伙有做瑜伽。
04:41
He hung out with the Beatles.
93
281560
1381
他也跟披頭四一起瞎混。
04:42
(Laughter)
94
282965
1091
(笑聲)
04:44
And like all hipsters, he could be infuriating at times.
95
284080
2960
就像所有追求時尚的人一樣, 他有時看起來也很令人討厭。
04:48
But he nevertheless pulled off
96
288680
1736
但是他還是完成了
04:50
one of the most progressive transformations any country has ever seen.
97
290440
4680
其它國家從未見過的躍進與轉變。
04:56
His formula, I've learned, involved two parts.
98
296360
2336
他成功的模式,就我知道, 包括了兩個部分。
04:58
First, Canada threw out its old race-based immigration rules,
99
298720
3976
第一,加拿大廢除了過去 以種族為標準的老移民規則,
05:02
and it replaced them with new color-blind ones
100
302720
2816
取而代之的是無種族歧視的新規則,
05:05
that emphasized education, experience and language skills instead.
101
305560
5176
這些規則注重教育、 工作經驗和語言技能。
05:10
And what that did was greatly increase the odds
102
310760
2496
這些規則顯著增加了
05:13
that newcomers would contribute to the economy.
103
313280
2680
新移民者為國家經濟 做出貢獻的機率。
05:16
Then part two, Trudeau created the world's first policy
104
316680
3536
第二,特魯多制定了世界上第一個
05:20
of official multiculturalism to promote integration
105
320240
4176
提倡多元文化相互融合的官方政策,
05:24
and the idea that diversity was the key to Canada's identity.
106
324440
4160
並提出「多元文化」對加拿大 「國家認同」的重要概念。
05:29
Now, in the years that followed, Ottawa kept pushing this message,
107
329560
3456
接下來的數年中, 渥太華繼續提倡這個概念,
05:33
but at the same time, ordinary Canadians
108
333040
2776
但是同時,普通的加拿大公民
05:35
soon started to see the economic, the material benefits of multiculturalism
109
335840
4496
很快就見證到他們身邊 由多元文化所帶來的
經濟與實質效益。
05:40
all around them.
110
340360
1256
05:41
And these two influences soon combined
111
341640
2616
這兩種影響很快結合起來,
05:44
to create the passionately open-minded Canada of today.
112
344280
3600
創造今日充滿激情、 心智開放的加拿大。
05:49
Let's now turn to another country and an even tougher problem,
113
349680
3456
現在讓我們看看另一個國家 和另一個更嚴重的問題,
05:53
Islamic extremism.
114
353160
1200
伊斯蘭恐怖主義。
05:55
In 1998, the people of Indonesia took to the streets
115
355440
3256
1988 年,印尼人民上街抗議,
05:58
and overthrew their longtime dictator, Suharto.
116
358720
2880
推翻了長期統治的獨裁者,蘇哈托。
06:02
It was an amazing moment,
117
362360
2256
令人相當驚豔的時刻,
06:04
but it was also a scary one.
118
364640
1736
但也是可怕的時刻。
06:06
With 250 million people,
119
366400
1696
印尼擁有 2 億 5 千萬人口,
06:08
Indonesia is the largest Muslim-majority country on Earth.
120
368120
4096
是世界上最大 以穆斯林信徒為主導的國家。
06:12
It's also hot, huge and unruly,
121
372240
2976
印尼也很熱,面積很大,難以管治,
06:15
made up of 17,000 islands,
122
375240
2296
它由 1 萬 7 千個島嶼組成,
06:17
where people speak close to a thousand languages.
123
377560
2286
人們使用將近 1 千種語言。
06:20
Now, Suharto had been a dictator,
124
380640
2536
蘇哈托是位獨裁者,
06:23
and a nasty one.
125
383200
1616
一位兇惡的獨裁者。
06:24
But he'd also been a pretty effective tyrant,
126
384840
3096
但是他也是一位 做事相當有效率的暴君,
06:27
and he'd always been careful to keep religion out of politics.
127
387960
3296
他一直很小心地讓宗教遠離政治。
06:31
So experts feared that without him keeping a lid on things,
128
391280
3576
所以專家們也害怕, 如果沒有他在控制局面,
06:34
the country would explode,
129
394880
1736
這個國家會發生動亂,
06:36
or religious extremists would take over
130
396640
1896
或是極端的宗教主義者會掌控政權,
06:38
and turn Indonesia into a tropical version of Iran.
131
398560
3880
然後把印尼變成熱帶版的伊朗。
06:43
And that's just what seemed to happen at first.
132
403600
2736
而這些擔憂,一開始 真的發生在印尼了。
06:46
In the country's first free elections, in 1999,
133
406360
3096
1999 年他們舉辦了 第一次的自由選舉,
06:49
Islamist parties scored 36 percent of the vote,
134
409480
3376
伊斯蘭黨派獲得了 36% 的選票,
06:52
and the islands burned
135
412880
1656
然後島嶼戰火開始不斷,
06:54
as riots and terror attacks killed thousands.
136
414560
2920
成千上萬人因戰亂 和恐怖攻擊而喪生。
06:58
Since then, however, Indonesia has taken a surprising turn.
137
418640
4400
然而,從那之後, 印尼發生了重大的轉變。
07:03
While ordinary folks have grown more pious on a personal level --
138
423920
3576
雖然一般民眾在個人心理層面 變得更加虔誠——
07:07
I saw a lot more headscarves on a recent visit
139
427520
2176
我在近期的一次旅行中, 見到戴頭巾的人
07:09
than I would have a decade ago --
140
429720
1936
比十年前見到的更多——
07:11
the country's politics have moved in the opposite direction.
141
431680
3480
但這個國家的政治方向 卻是往另一個方向走。
07:15
Indonesia is now a pretty decent democracy.
142
435960
2520
印尼現在相當民主。
07:20
And yet, its Islamist parties have steadily lost support,
143
440320
2936
而伊斯蘭政黨卻漸漸地在失去民心,
07:23
from a high of about 38 percent in 2004
144
443280
3336
從 2004 年大概 38% 的高度支持
07:26
down to 25 percent in 2014.
145
446640
3240
降到 2014 年 25% 的支持度。
07:30
As for terrorism, it's now extremely rare.
146
450600
3416
至於恐怖主義,現在更是少見。
07:34
And while a few Indonesians have recently joined ISIS,
147
454040
3376
儘管有一些印尼人 最近加入了伊斯蘭國,
07:37
their number is tiny,
148
457440
1200
但數量很少,
07:39
far fewer in per capita terms
149
459840
2976
以人均比例來看的話,
07:42
than the number of Belgians.
150
462840
2200
遠少於比利時。
07:46
Try to think of one other Muslim-majority country
151
466280
2456
試想其它以穆斯林為主導的國家,
07:48
that can say all those same things.
152
468760
2416
他們同樣是相對少的。
07:51
In 2014, I went to Indonesia to ask its current president,
153
471200
2896
2014 年我去印尼訪問了現任總統,
07:54
a soft-spoken technocrat named Joko Widodo,
154
474120
3576
他是位聲音柔和的技術官僚, 名叫佐科·維多多。
07:57
"Why is Indonesia thriving when so many other Muslim states are dying?"
155
477720
4440
我問他:「為什麼當許多 穆斯林國家瀕臨滅亡的時候,
印尼卻蒸蒸日上呢?」
08:03
"Well, what we realized," he told me,
156
483120
1816
他告訴我:「嗯,我們了解到
08:04
"is that to deal with extremism, we needed to deal with inequality first."
157
484960
4856
如果要解決極端主義, 我們得先解決不平等。」
08:09
See, Indonesia's religious parties, like similar parties elsewhere,
158
489840
3536
瞧,印尼的宗教政黨, 就像其它類似的政黨一樣,
08:13
had tended to focus on things like reducing poverty and cutting corruption.
159
493400
3880
都是傾向著重在解決貧困 和貪腐之類的問題。
08:18
So that's what Joko and his predecessors did too,
160
498040
2576
這都是維多多和前幾任 領導人做的事情,
08:20
thereby stealing the Islamists' thunder.
161
500640
1920
因此伊斯蘭教就沒有發揮的空間。
08:23
They also cracked down hard on terrorism,
162
503480
2616
他們也全力打擊恐怖主義,
08:26
but Indonesia's democrats have learned a key lesson
163
506120
2576
但是印尼的民主人士 從過去黑暗的專制年代中
08:28
from the dark years of dictatorship,
164
508720
1936
學到了寶貴的經驗,
08:30
namely that repression only creates more extremism.
165
510680
4640
那就是打壓只會 帶來更多的極端主義。
08:36
So they waged their war with extraordinary delicacy.
166
516080
3896
所以他們很小心地在處理這件事。
08:40
They used the police instead of the army.
167
520000
2056
他們動用警察來維安, 而不是用軍隊。
08:42
They only detained suspects if they had enough evidence.
168
522080
3016
他們只有在足夠的證據下 才會抓捕嫌疑人。
08:45
They held public trials.
169
525120
1576
他們會舉行公開的審問。
08:46
They even sent liberal imams into the jails
170
526720
2696
他們甚至讓伊斯蘭教長進入監獄 去勸說伊斯蘭聖戰士,
08:49
to persuade the jihadists that terror is un-Islamic.
171
529440
2520
恐怖主義是違背伊斯蘭主義的。
08:52
And all of this paid off in spectacular fashion,
172
532760
3096
這些措舉得到了驚人的回報,
08:55
creating the kind of country that was unimaginable 20 years ago.
173
535880
3480
創造了一個在 20 年前 人們無法想像的國家。
09:00
So at this point, my optimism should, I hope,
174
540600
3096
所以,我會樂觀的原因
09:03
be starting to make a bit more sense.
175
543720
1816
不是沒有道理的。
09:05
Neither immigration nor Islamic extremism are impossible to deal with.
176
545560
4080
移民和伊斯蘭極端主義的問題 再也不可能無法解決。
09:10
Join me now on one last trip,
177
550440
2056
現在和我一起進行最後一段旅程,
09:12
this time to Mexico.
178
552520
1640
接下來是去墨西哥。
09:14
Now, of our three stories, this one probably surprised me the most,
179
554960
3176
這三個故事中, 墨西哥是最讓我驚訝的,
09:18
since as you all know,
180
558160
1416
因為大家都知道,
09:19
the country is still struggling with so many problems.
181
559600
3096
這個國家仍然有許多問題沒有解決。
09:22
And yet, a few years ago, Mexico did something
182
562720
2656
但是,幾年前,墨西哥做了一些
09:25
that many other countries from France to India to the United States
183
565400
5136
許多國家,包括法國、印度和美國
09:30
can still only dream of.
184
570560
1896
做不到的事情。
09:32
It shattered the political paralysis that had gripped it for years.
185
572480
3560
墨西哥打破了困擾它 多年的政治僵局。
09:37
To understand how, we need to rewind to the year 2000,
186
577200
2976
為了了解他們是怎麼做到的, 我們需要回到 2000 年,
09:40
when Mexico finally became a democracy.
187
580200
2576
當時墨西哥終於成為了 一個民主國家。
09:42
Rather than use their new freedoms to fight for reform,
188
582800
4176
墨西哥政治家沒利用 剛得到的自由來推動改革。
09:47
Mexico's politicians used them to fight one another.
189
587000
3336
而是利用它們在做鬥爭,
09:50
Congress deadlocked, and the country's problems --
190
590360
2936
國會陷入僵局, 而且這個國家面臨的問題——
09:53
drugs, poverty, crime, corruption --
191
593320
3056
毒品、貧困、犯罪、貪腐——
09:56
spun out of control.
192
596400
1576
完全失控。
09:58
Things got so bad that in 2008,
193
598000
2616
事態變得非常惡劣, 以至於在 2008 年,
10:00
the Pentagon warned that Mexico risked collapse.
194
600640
2880
美國國防部發出警告說, 墨西哥政府有垮台的危機。
10:04
Then in 2012, this guy named Enrique Peña Nieto
195
604680
4376
然後在 2012 年, 這個叫恩里克·潘尼亞·尼托的人
10:09
somehow got himself elected president.
196
609080
1880
透過某種方式當上了總統。
10:11
Now, this Peña hardly inspired much confidence at first.
197
611600
4080
一開始,潘尼亞幾乎沒有 激勵到人們的信心。
10:16
Sure, he was handsome,
198
616680
1240
沒錯,他很帥氣,
10:18
but he came from Mexico's corrupt old ruling party, the PRI,
199
618960
3896
但是他來自墨西哥腐敗的 老執政黨,革命制度黨,
10:22
and he was a notorious womanizer.
200
622880
2840
而且他是一位名聲不太好的花心男。
10:26
In fact, he seemed like such a pretty boy lightweight
201
626520
3056
事實上,他笑起來像個 天真無邪的小男孩,
10:29
that women called him "bombón," sweetie,
202
629600
2776
所以在競舉期間, 女人叫他「小甜心」。
10:32
at campaign rallies.
203
632400
1200
10:35
And yet this same bombón soon surprised everyone
204
635360
3616
但是這個小甜心 很快就跌破了大家的眼鏡,
10:39
by hammering out a truce
205
639000
1256
因為他平息了這個國家
10:40
between the country's three warring political parties.
206
640280
3016
三個政黨的激烈鬥爭。
10:43
And over the next 18 months, they together passed
207
643320
2576
而且在過去的 18 個月中, 他們一起通過了
10:45
an incredibly comprehensive set of reforms.
208
645920
2936
一系列難以置信的全面改革措施。
10:48
They busted open Mexico's smothering monopolies.
209
648880
3056
他們開放了墨西哥財團壟斷的事業。
10:51
They liberalized its rusting energy sector.
210
651960
2640
他們把腐化的能源行業給自由化了。
10:55
They restructured its failing schools, and much more.
211
655200
3216
他們重建了每況愈下的學校, 還有很多組織。
10:58
To appreciate the scale of this accomplishment,
212
658440
2216
為了了解這些成就有多了不起,
11:00
try to imagine the US Congress passing immigration reform,
213
660680
4216
試想一下美國國會 正在修正的移民法案、
11:04
campaign finance reform and banking reform.
214
664920
2936
競選經費改革和銀行系統改革法案。
11:07
Now, try to imagine Congress doing it all at the same time.
215
667880
3440
現在,試想一下,國會 要在同一時間將這些法案通過。
11:11
That's what Mexico did.
216
671920
1200
墨西哥辦到了。
11:14
Not long ago, I met with Peña and asked how he managed it all.
217
674160
3360
不久前,我跟潘尼亞碰面, 我問他,他是如何做到的。
11:18
The President flashed me his famous twinkly smile --
218
678320
3096
總統給了我一個迷人的微笑——
11:21
(Laughter)
219
681440
1760
(笑聲)
11:24
and told me that the short answer was "compromiso," compromise.
220
684640
4936
然後告訴我一個 簡短的答案:「妥協」。
11:29
Of course, I pushed him for details,
221
689600
1736
當然,我追問了更多的細節,
11:31
and the long answer that came out was essentially
222
691360
2536
最終得到的更長答案是
11:33
"compromise, compromise and more compromise."
223
693920
2600
「妥協、妥協、再妥協」。
11:37
See, Peña knew that he needed to build trust early,
224
697280
2776
潘尼亞知道他需要儘早建立信任,
11:40
so he started talking to the opposition just days after his election.
225
700080
3776
所以他在選舉結束後 就開始和反對黨協商。
11:43
To ward off pressure from special interests,
226
703880
2336
為了避開特殊利益群體的壓力,
11:46
he kept their meetings small and secret,
227
706240
2776
他讓會議以小規模形式秘密舉行,
11:49
and many of the participants later told me that it was this intimacy,
228
709040
4296
很多參與者之後告訴我,
正是這種親密關係 加上共享的龍舌蘭酒,
11:53
plus a lot of shared tequila,
229
713360
1656
11:55
that helped build confidence.
230
715040
1920
幫助建立了信心。
11:57
So did the fact that all decisions had to be unanimous,
231
717600
2856
為了讓所有的決議一致通過,
12:00
and that Peña even agreed to pass some of the other party's priorities
232
720480
4136
潘尼亞甚至讓其它黨派的重大議題
12:04
before his own.
233
724640
1200
比他自己黨派的議題先通過。
12:06
As Santiago Creel, an opposition senator, put it to me,
234
726800
3056
正如聖地亞哥·克里爾, 一名反對黨的議員,對我說的:
12:09
"Look, I'm not saying that I'm special or that anyone is special,
235
729880
4656
「你看,我不是說我很特別, 或者某個人很特別,
12:14
but that group, that was special."
236
734560
2840
而是那個團隊, 是那個團隊很特別。」
12:18
The proof?
237
738040
1216
證據呢?
12:19
When Peña was sworn in, the pact held,
238
739280
3336
潘尼亞就職之後,信守承諾,
12:22
and Mexico moved forward for the first time in years.
239
742640
3160
在經過多年內亂後, 帶領墨西哥第一次向前行。
12:27
Bueno.
240
747520
1216
太棒了。
12:28
So now we've seen how these three countries
241
748760
2296
現在我們知道了這三個國家是如何
12:31
overcame three of their great challenges.
242
751080
2536
克服它們遇到的三個巨大挑戰。
12:33
And that's very nice for them, right?
243
753640
1816
這對它們來說很棒,是不是?
12:35
But what good does it do the rest of us?
244
755480
2680
但,這對我們其他人 來說有什麼好處呢?
12:39
Well, in the course of studying these and a bunch of other success stories,
245
759000
3576
嗯,在研究這些國家和 一些其它國家成功經歷的過程中,
12:42
like the way Rwanda pulled itself back together after civil war
246
762600
4136
比如盧旺達如何在內戰結束後, 讓國家團結起來,
12:46
or Brazil has reduced inequality,
247
766760
2736
或者是巴西如何縮小了貧富差距,
12:49
or South Korea has kept its economy growing faster and for longer
248
769520
3736
或者是韓國如何在經濟上 比世界上其它國家
12:53
than any other country on Earth,
249
773280
1936
增長得更快、更久。
12:55
I've noticed a few common threads.
250
775240
2456
我有注意到一些共同的現象。
12:57
Now, before describing them, I need to add a caveat.
251
777720
3096
在我說明這些現象之前, 我需要補充一個注意事項。
13:00
I realize, of course, that all countries are unique.
252
780840
2616
沒錯,我知道所有的國家 都有自己特殊的地方。
13:03
So you can't simply take what worked in one,
253
783480
2696
所以你不能單純地把 適用於某個國家的措施
13:06
port it to another and expect it to work there too.
254
786200
2696
套用到另一個國家上, 然後期待這個措施會一樣有效。
13:08
Nor do specific solutions work forever.
255
788920
2336
具體永久的解決方案 也一樣不可能。
13:11
You've got to adapt them as circumstances change.
256
791280
2760
你需要根據環境,來調整這些方案。
13:14
That said, by stripping these stories to their essence,
257
794880
3616
也就是說,藉由挖掘 這些故事的精髓,
13:18
you absolutely can distill a few common tools for problem-solving
258
798520
4656
你絕對可以提煉出 幾個解決問題的方法,
13:23
that will work in other countries
259
803200
2936
來應用在其它國家、
13:26
and in boardrooms
260
806160
1296
應用在董事會,
13:27
and in all sorts of other contexts, too.
261
807480
2320
應用在各種情況都行。
13:30
Number one, embrace the extreme.
262
810640
3296
第一,擁抱極端。
13:33
In all the stories we've just looked at,
263
813960
1936
我們觀察到在所有的故事中,
13:35
salvation came at a moment of existential peril.
264
815920
2920
轉機總是在危機中產生的。
13:39
And that was no coincidence.
265
819760
1856
那並不是巧合。
13:41
Take Canada: when Trudeau took office, he faced two looming dangers.
266
821640
4320
以加拿大為例:當特魯多就職時, 他面臨了兩個危機。
13:46
First, though his vast, underpopulated country
267
826640
2656
第一,雖然他那地廣、 人口稀少的國家
13:49
badly needed more bodies,
268
829320
1616
急需更多的人口,
13:50
its preferred source for white workers, Europe,
269
830960
2616
加拿大比較喜歡的 白色人種輸出地——歐洲,
13:53
had just stopped exporting them as it finally recovered from World War II.
270
833600
4056
才剛從二戰中復甦, 人口外移現象已經停止。
13:57
The other problem was that Canada's long cold war
271
837680
2496
另一個問題是,加拿大
14:00
between its French and its English communities
272
840200
2816
法語和英語社群之間的長期冷戰,
14:03
had just become a hot one.
273
843040
1640
當時是相當激烈的。
14:05
Quebec was threatening to secede,
274
845280
2176
魁北克當時威脅要退出加拿大,
14:07
and Canadians were actually killing other Canadians over politics.
275
847480
3776
而且加拿大人實際上 因政治問題也在彼此殘殺。
14:11
Now, countries face crises all the time. Right?
276
851280
3456
國家隨時都面臨危機,對吧?
14:14
That's nothing special.
277
854760
1240
那沒什麼特別的。
14:16
But Trudeau's genius was to realize that Canada's crisis
278
856960
3776
但是特魯多厲害的地方就是, 他明白加拿大如果要擺脫
14:20
had swept away all the hurdles that usually block reform.
279
860760
3560
長久以來阻礙改革的危機。
14:24
Canada had to open up. It had no choice.
280
864880
3360
加拿大必須打開國門, 因為它別無選擇。
14:29
And it had to rethink its identity.
281
869000
1816
而且加拿大必須重新 定位它的國家認同。
14:30
Again, it had no choice.
282
870840
1696
同樣,它也別無選擇。
14:32
And that gave Trudeau a once-in-a-generation opportunity
283
872560
3536
而這給了特魯多一個 千載難逢的機會,
14:36
to break the old rules and write new ones.
284
876120
2600
讓他可以打破陳規,制定新規。
14:39
And like all our other heroes, he was smart enough to seize it.
285
879360
3480
跟其他英雄一樣,他相當聰明, 所以抓住了這個機會。
14:44
Number two, there's power in promiscuous thinking.
286
884360
2760
第二,不設限的想法有強大的力量。
14:48
Another striking similarity among good problem-solvers
287
888200
2936
優秀的問題解決專家 都是實用主義者,
14:51
is that they're all pragmatists.
288
891160
2016
這是他們之間 另一個明顯的相似之處。
14:53
They'll steal the best answers from wherever they find them,
289
893200
3176
他們會從其他地方 找到並偷學最佳的解決方案。
14:56
and they don't let details
290
896400
1376
而且他們不會讓細節
14:57
like party or ideology or sentimentality get in their way.
291
897800
5336
比如政黨、意識形態或是 多愁善感的情緒阻礙他們。
15:03
As I mentioned earlier, Indonesia's democrats were clever enough
292
903160
3296
正如我之前提到的, 印尼的民主人士相當聰明,
15:06
to steal many of the Islamists' best campaign promises for themselves.
293
906480
4776
他們把伊斯蘭教徒最好的 競選承諾拿來自己用。
15:11
They even invited some of the radicals into their governing coalition.
294
911280
3896
他們甚至邀請一些激進人士 加入他們的管理團隊。
15:15
Now, that horrified a lot of secular Indonesians.
295
915200
3520
那種作法嚇壞了很多 世俗的印尼人士。
15:19
But by forcing the radicals to actually help govern,
296
919840
4856
但請激進人士來協助管理,
15:24
it quickly exposed the fact that they weren't any good at the job,
297
924720
3856
這些人不擅長管理的事實 很快就暴露了,
15:28
and it got them mixed up in all of the grubby compromises
298
928600
3016
而且這也讓他們參與了 政治的暗門協商
15:31
and petty humiliations that are part of everyday politics.
299
931640
3056
和每天無關緊要的政治謾罵。
15:34
And that hurt their image so badly that they've never recovered.
300
934720
3400
他們的形象因此受損, 而且從未成功挽回。
15:39
Number three,
301
939240
1376
第三,
15:40
please all of the people some of the time.
302
940640
2840
有時要取悅所有人。
15:44
I know I just mentioned how crises can grant leaders extraordinary freedoms.
303
944200
5096
我知道我剛剛有提到, 危機賦予領導人超乎尋常的自由。
15:49
And that's true, but problem-solving often requires more than just boldness.
304
949320
3976
沒錯,但是解決問題需要的 不僅是只有大膽,
15:53
It takes showing restraint, too,
305
953320
2576
也需要表現出克制,
15:55
just when that's the last thing you want to do.
306
955920
2656
就像那是你當時 最不想要做的一件事。
15:58
Take Trudeau: when he took office,
307
958600
1936
以特魯多為例:當他就職的時候,
16:00
he could easily have put his core constituency,
308
960560
2576
他完全可以優先考慮他的核心選民,
16:03
that is Canada's French community, first.
309
963160
2656
也就是加拿大的法語社區,
16:05
He could have pleased some of the people all of the time.
310
965840
3440
他本來只需要取悅一部分人。
16:09
And Peña could have used his power to keep attacking the opposition,
311
969920
3536
同樣,潘尼亞本來也可以用 他的權利持續攻擊反對黨,
16:13
as was traditional in Mexico.
312
973480
1776
就像墨西哥過去的傳統一樣。
16:15
Yet he chose to embrace his enemies instead,
313
975280
3136
但是他選擇接納他的敵人,
16:18
while forcing his own party to compromise.
314
978440
2496
同時要求他自己的政黨作出妥協。
16:20
And Trudeau pushed everyone to stop thinking in tribal terms
315
980960
4176
特魯多要求每個人放下黨團意識,
16:25
and to see multiculturalism, not language and not skin color,
316
985160
4496
放下語言與膚色的隔閡,
16:29
as what made them quintessentially Canadian.
317
989680
2480
把多元文化視為他們 加拿大人典型的國家象徵。
16:32
Nobody got everything they wanted,
318
992960
2496
沒有人可以得到他們想要的一切,
16:35
but everyone got just enough that the bargains held.
319
995480
3320
但每個人都得到了 剛剛好的協商成果。
16:40
So at this point you may be thinking,
320
1000560
2416
在這一刻,你也許在想,
16:43
"OK, Tepperman,
321
1003000
1216
「好的,特普曼,
16:44
if the fixes really are out there like you keep insisting,
322
1004240
2736
如果這些方法就如你所說的那麼好,
16:47
then why aren't more countries already using them?"
323
1007000
2520
那麼為什麼沒有更多的 國家採用這些方法呢?」
16:50
It's not like they require special powers to pull off.
324
1010640
2576
這些方法並不需要 特殊的能力才能取得。
16:53
I mean, none of the leaders we've just looked at were superheroes.
325
1013240
3576
我的意思是,我們剛才提到的 那些領導人也不是超級英雄,
16:56
They didn't accomplish anything on their own,
326
1016840
2136
他們無法獨自完成事情,
16:59
and they all had plenty of flaws.
327
1019000
2176
而且他們都有很多缺陷。
17:01
Take Indonesia's first democratic president,
328
1021200
2416
以印尼第一個民主總統,
17:03
Abdurrahman Wahid.
329
1023640
1656
阿卜杜拉赫曼·瓦希德,為例。
17:05
This man was so powerfully uncharismatic
330
1025320
3216
這個人超瞎,
17:08
that he once fell asleep
331
1028560
2096
他曾經
在自己的演講中睡著了。
17:10
in the middle of his own speech.
332
1030680
1776
17:12
(Laughter)
333
1032480
1616
(笑聲)
17:14
True story.
334
1034120
1200
這是真的。
17:19
So what this tells us is that the real obstacle is not ability,
335
1039960
3696
這告訴我們,真正的阻礙不是能力,
17:23
and it's not circumstances.
336
1043680
1816
也不是環境。
17:25
It's something much simpler.
337
1045520
2056
而是更簡單的事情。
17:27
Making big changes involves taking big risks,
338
1047599
3977
做巨大的改變需要承擔高風險,
17:31
and taking big risks is scary.
339
1051599
2041
而承擔高風險是令人害怕的。
17:34
Overcoming that fear requires guts,
340
1054480
3336
克服那種恐懼需要勇氣,
17:37
and as you all know,
341
1057839
1336
正如各位所知,
17:39
gutsy politicians are painfully rare.
342
1059200
2440
有勇氣的政治家特別少。
17:43
But that doesn't mean we voters
343
1063120
2096
但那並不是代表我們選民
17:45
can't demand courage from our political leaders.
344
1065240
2736
不能要求我們的政治領袖變得勇敢。
17:48
I mean, that's why we put them in office in the first place.
345
1068000
2810
我的意思是,那就是我們當初 選他們出來的原因,
17:51
And given the state of the world today, there's really no other option.
346
1071520
3440
因為考量到目前世界的處境, 我們真的別無選擇。
17:55
The answers are out there,
347
1075880
2816
解決問題的方法是存在的,
17:58
but now it's up to us
348
1078720
2336
但是現在需要由我們
18:01
to elect more women and men
349
1081080
2536
選出足夠勇敢的女性和男性
18:03
brave enough to find them,
350
1083640
2376
來找出那些解決方案,
18:06
to steal them
351
1086040
1376
偷學那些方法,
18:07
and to make them work.
352
1087440
1616
然後讓那些方法奏效。
18:09
Thank you.
353
1089080
1376
謝謝。
18:10
(Applause)
354
1090480
5311
(掌聲)
關於本網站

本網站將向您介紹對學習英語有用的 YouTube 視頻。 您將看到來自世界各地的一流教師教授的英語課程。 雙擊每個視頻頁面上顯示的英文字幕,從那裡播放視頻。 字幕與視頻播放同步滾動。 如果您有任何意見或要求,請使用此聯繫表與我們聯繫。

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7