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譯者: Nan Liu
審譯者: 易帆 余
00:12
The conventional wisdom
about our world today
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傳統老一輩對世界的看法
00:15
is that this is a time
of terrible decline.
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認為現在是一個相當墮落的年代。
00:19
And that's not surprising,
given the bad news all around us,
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看看我們身邊的壞消息,
會有這種看法並不讓人吃驚,
00:23
from ISIS to inequality,
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從 ISIS 恐怖組織到社會不公、
00:25
political dysfunction, climate change,
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政治無能、氣候變化、
00:28
Brexit, and on and on.
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英國退出歐盟,等等。
00:31
But here's the thing,
and this may sound a little weird.
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但我要說的是,
這聽起來可能有點怪。
00:35
I actually don't buy
this gloomy narrative,
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實際上我不贊同這種悲觀的論述,
00:38
and I don't think you should either.
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我想你們應該也別贊同。
00:40
Look, it's not that
I don't see the problems.
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請注意,我並不是沒有
注意到這些問題。
00:43
I read the same headlines that you do.
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我和各位閱讀的
新聞標題都是一樣的。
00:46
What I dispute is the conclusion
that so many people draw from them,
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我不認同標題黨的結論,
00:49
namely that we're all screwed
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說的好像我們都很爛一樣,
00:51
because the problems are unsolvable
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因為好像我們都無法解決問題,
00:54
and our governments are useless.
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而且我們的政府很無能。
00:57
Now, why do I say this?
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我為什麼要說這個?
00:58
It's not like I'm particularly
optimistic by nature.
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並不是我天生就特別樂觀,
01:02
But something about the media's
constant doom-mongering
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但是媒體持續散布這些負面消息,
01:06
with its fixation on problems
and not on answers
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把焦點放在問題而不是解決方案上,
01:09
has always really bugged me.
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讓我一直很惱怒。
01:11
So a few years ago I decided,
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所以幾年前,我決定,
01:14
well, I'm a journalist,
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嗯, 我是一名記者,
01:16
I should see if I can do any better
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我在想,我應該去試試我是否可以
01:18
by going around the world
and actually asking folks
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藉由採訪世界各地的人民,
讓世界變得更好,
01:21
if and how they've tackled
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問問他們在面臨巨大的
經濟和政治挑戰時,
01:22
their big economic
and political challenges.
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是如何解決的。
01:26
And what I found astonished me.
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令我相當震驚的是,
01:29
It turns out that there are remarkable
signs of progress out there,
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我發現,世界進步的狀況相當驚人,
01:33
often in the most unexpected places,
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且經常出現在一些
最意想不到的地方,
01:36
and they've convinced me
that our great global challenges
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而且他們讓我確信
我們巨大的全球性挑戰
01:40
may not be so unsolvable after all.
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也許沒有想像中的困難。
01:43
Not only are there theoretical fixes;
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不僅理論上可以解決;
01:45
those fixes have been tried.
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而且那些方法已經被試驗過了,
01:47
They've worked.
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它們的確有效。
01:49
And they offer hope for the rest of us.
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而這也為我們其他人帶來了希望。
01:52
I'm going to show you what I mean
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我會藉由我去過的三個國家
01:54
by telling you about
how three of the countries I visited --
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來向各位說明我的看法——
01:56
Canada, Indonesia and Mexico --
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加拿大、印尼和墨西哥——
01:58
overcame three supposedly
impossible problems.
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他們是如何克服
三個似乎不可能解決的問題。
02:02
Their stories matter because they contain
tools the rest of us can use,
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他們的故事很重要,因為裡面包含了
可以解決我們問題的工具,
02:06
and not just for those
particular problems,
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而且不僅僅可以解決
一些特定的問題,
02:09
but for many others, too.
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還可以解決許多其它的問題。
02:13
When most people think
about my homeland, Canada, today,
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當大多數人現在想到
我的家鄉──加拿大──的時候,
02:17
if they think about Canada at all,
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他們能想到加拿大的就是……
02:19
they think cold, they think boring,
they think polite.
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寒冷、無聊,但很有禮貌。
02:22
They think we say "sorry" too much
in our funny accents.
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他們認為我們說
「對不起 」時的口音很有趣。
02:26
And that's all true.
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這些都是事實。
02:28
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
02:29
Sorry.
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「對不起 」。
02:30
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
02:32
But Canada's also important
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但是加拿大也很重要,
02:35
because of its triumph over a problem
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因為他們解決了一個
02:37
currently tearing
many other countries apart:
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目前很多國家四分五裂的問題:
02:39
immigration.
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移民。
02:41
Consider, Canada today is among
the world's most welcoming nations,
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思考一下,加拿大是現今世上
最熱情的國家之一,
02:45
even compared to other
immigration-friendly countries.
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比起其它移民政策寬鬆的
國家還要熱情。
02:49
Its per capita immigration rate
is four times higher than France's,
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加拿大的平均移民人數
比法國高出四倍,
02:53
and its percentage
of foreign-born residents
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而且加拿大在國外出生的居民
02:56
is double that of Sweden.
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是瑞典的兩倍。
02:58
Meanwhile, Canada admitted
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同時,加拿大去年接納的
02:59
10 times more Syrian refugees
in the last year
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敘利亞難民比美國接納的還多十倍。
03:03
than did the United States.
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03:05
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
03:12
And now Canada is taking even more.
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而且現在加拿大還在接收更多難民。
03:14
And yet, if you ask Canadians
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但是,如果你問加拿大人
03:16
what makes them proudest of their country,
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什麼最讓他們引以為傲,
03:19
they rank "multiculturalism,"
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他們把「多元文化」,
03:22
a dirty word in most places,
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一個在多數地方不受歡迎的詞語,
03:24
second,
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排在第二,
03:25
ahead of hockey.
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排名在曲棍球之前,
03:27
Hockey.
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曲棍球。
03:28
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
03:31
In other words,
at a time when other countries
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換句話說,當其他國家
03:34
are now frantically building
new barriers to keep foreigners out,
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拼命製造障礙來
阻擋外來移民的時候,
03:37
Canadians want even more of them in.
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加拿大人想讓更多的移民進來。
03:41
Now, here's the really interesting part.
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接下來是很有趣的部分。
03:43
Canada wasn't always like this.
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加拿大不是一直都是這樣的。
03:45
Until the mid-1960s, Canada followed
an explicitly racist immigration policy.
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直到 20 世紀 60 年代中期,
加拿大都奉行帶有明確
種族色彩的移民政策。
03:52
They called it "White Canada,"
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他們把這個政策稱作
「白色加拿大」,
03:54
and as you can see, they were not
just talking about the snow.
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正如你們所見,
他們談的不只有白雪。
03:59
So how did that Canada
become today's Canada?
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那麼過去的加拿大
是如何成為現在的加拿大?
04:05
Well, despite what my mom
in Ontario will tell you,
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儘管我住在安大略省的母親告訴你,
04:07
the answer had nothing to do with virtue.
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問題的答案和美德無關。
04:09
Canadians are not inherently
better than anyone else.
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加拿大人不是天生就比其他人善良。
04:13
The real explanation involves the man
who became Canada's leader in 1968,
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真正的答案與在 1968 年成為
加拿大領導人的那個人有關。
04:17
Pierre Trudeau, who is also
the father of the current prime minister.
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皮埃爾·特魯多,他也是現任
加拿大總理的父親。
04:21
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
04:25
The thing to know about that first Trudeau
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關於特魯多,首先我們要知道
04:27
is that he was very different
from Canada's previous leaders.
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他不同於以往的加拿大領導人。
04:29
He was a French speaker in a country
long-dominated by its English elite.
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他在英文精英長期統治的
國家裡,說的是法語。
04:34
He was an intellectual.
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他是知識分子,
04:36
He was even kind of groovy.
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他甚至有點時髦,
04:38
I mean, seriously, the guy did yoga.
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說真的,這傢伙有做瑜伽。
04:41
He hung out with the Beatles.
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他也跟披頭四一起瞎混。
04:42
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
04:44
And like all hipsters,
he could be infuriating at times.
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就像所有追求時尚的人一樣,
他有時看起來也很令人討厭。
04:48
But he nevertheless pulled off
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但是他還是完成了
04:50
one of the most progressive
transformations any country has ever seen.
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其它國家從未見過的躍進與轉變。
04:56
His formula, I've learned,
involved two parts.
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他成功的模式,就我知道,
包括了兩個部分。
04:58
First, Canada threw out
its old race-based immigration rules,
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第一,加拿大廢除了過去
以種族為標準的老移民規則,
05:02
and it replaced them
with new color-blind ones
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取而代之的是無種族歧視的新規則,
05:05
that emphasized education,
experience and language skills instead.
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這些規則注重教育、
工作經驗和語言技能。
05:10
And what that did
was greatly increase the odds
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這些規則顯著增加了
05:13
that newcomers would
contribute to the economy.
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新移民者為國家經濟
做出貢獻的機率。
05:16
Then part two, Trudeau
created the world's first policy
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第二,特魯多制定了世界上第一個
05:20
of official multiculturalism
to promote integration
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提倡多元文化相互融合的官方政策,
05:24
and the idea that diversity
was the key to Canada's identity.
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並提出「多元文化」對加拿大
「國家認同」的重要概念。
05:29
Now, in the years that followed,
Ottawa kept pushing this message,
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接下來的數年中,
渥太華繼續提倡這個概念,
05:33
but at the same time, ordinary Canadians
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但是同時,普通的加拿大公民
05:35
soon started to see the economic,
the material benefits of multiculturalism
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很快就見證到他們身邊
由多元文化所帶來的
經濟與實質效益。
05:40
all around them.
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05:41
And these two influences soon combined
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這兩種影響很快結合起來,
05:44
to create the passionately
open-minded Canada of today.
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創造今日充滿激情、
心智開放的加拿大。
05:49
Let's now turn to another country
and an even tougher problem,
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現在讓我們看看另一個國家
和另一個更嚴重的問題,
05:53
Islamic extremism.
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伊斯蘭恐怖主義。
05:55
In 1998, the people of Indonesia
took to the streets
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1988 年,印尼人民上街抗議,
05:58
and overthrew
their longtime dictator, Suharto.
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推翻了長期統治的獨裁者,蘇哈托。
06:02
It was an amazing moment,
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令人相當驚豔的時刻,
06:04
but it was also a scary one.
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但也是可怕的時刻。
06:06
With 250 million people,
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印尼擁有 2 億 5 千萬人口,
06:08
Indonesia is the largest
Muslim-majority country on Earth.
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是世界上最大
以穆斯林信徒為主導的國家。
06:12
It's also hot, huge and unruly,
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印尼也很熱,面積很大,難以管治,
06:15
made up of 17,000 islands,
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它由 1 萬 7 千個島嶼組成,
06:17
where people speak
close to a thousand languages.
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人們使用將近 1 千種語言。
06:20
Now, Suharto had been a dictator,
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蘇哈托是位獨裁者,
06:23
and a nasty one.
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一位兇惡的獨裁者。
06:24
But he'd also been
a pretty effective tyrant,
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但是他也是一位
做事相當有效率的暴君,
06:27
and he'd always been careful
to keep religion out of politics.
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他一直很小心地讓宗教遠離政治。
06:31
So experts feared that without
him keeping a lid on things,
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所以專家們也害怕,
如果沒有他在控制局面,
06:34
the country would explode,
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這個國家會發生動亂,
06:36
or religious extremists would take over
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或是極端的宗教主義者會掌控政權,
06:38
and turn Indonesia
into a tropical version of Iran.
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然後把印尼變成熱帶版的伊朗。
06:43
And that's just what seemed
to happen at first.
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而這些擔憂,一開始
真的發生在印尼了。
06:46
In the country's
first free elections, in 1999,
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1999 年他們舉辦了
第一次的自由選舉,
06:49
Islamist parties scored
36 percent of the vote,
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伊斯蘭黨派獲得了 36% 的選票,
06:52
and the islands burned
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然後島嶼戰火開始不斷,
06:54
as riots and terror attacks
killed thousands.
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成千上萬人因戰亂
和恐怖攻擊而喪生。
06:58
Since then, however,
Indonesia has taken a surprising turn.
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然而,從那之後,
印尼發生了重大的轉變。
07:03
While ordinary folks have grown
more pious on a personal level --
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雖然一般民眾在個人心理層面
變得更加虔誠——
07:07
I saw a lot more headscarves
on a recent visit
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我在近期的一次旅行中,
見到戴頭巾的人
07:09
than I would have a decade ago --
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比十年前見到的更多——
07:11
the country's politics
have moved in the opposite direction.
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但這個國家的政治方向
卻是往另一個方向走。
07:15
Indonesia is now
a pretty decent democracy.
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印尼現在相當民主。
07:20
And yet, its Islamist parties
have steadily lost support,
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而伊斯蘭政黨卻漸漸地在失去民心,
07:23
from a high of about 38 percent in 2004
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從 2004 年大概 38% 的高度支持
07:26
down to 25 percent in 2014.
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降到 2014 年 25% 的支持度。
07:30
As for terrorism, it's now extremely rare.
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至於恐怖主義,現在更是少見。
07:34
And while a few Indonesians
have recently joined ISIS,
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儘管有一些印尼人
最近加入了伊斯蘭國,
07:37
their number is tiny,
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但數量很少,
07:39
far fewer in per capita terms
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以人均比例來看的話,
07:42
than the number of Belgians.
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遠少於比利時。
07:46
Try to think of one other
Muslim-majority country
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試想其它以穆斯林為主導的國家,
07:48
that can say all those same things.
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他們同樣是相對少的。
07:51
In 2014, I went to Indonesia
to ask its current president,
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2014 年我去印尼訪問了現任總統,
07:54
a soft-spoken technocrat
named Joko Widodo,
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他是位聲音柔和的技術官僚,
名叫佐科·維多多。
07:57
"Why is Indonesia thriving when
so many other Muslim states are dying?"
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我問他:「為什麼當許多
穆斯林國家瀕臨滅亡的時候,
印尼卻蒸蒸日上呢?」
08:03
"Well, what we realized," he told me,
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他告訴我:「嗯,我們了解到
08:04
"is that to deal with extremism,
we needed to deal with inequality first."
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如果要解決極端主義,
我們得先解決不平等。」
08:09
See, Indonesia's religious parties,
like similar parties elsewhere,
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瞧,印尼的宗教政黨,
就像其它類似的政黨一樣,
08:13
had tended to focus on things like
reducing poverty and cutting corruption.
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都是傾向著重在解決貧困
和貪腐之類的問題。
08:18
So that's what Joko
and his predecessors did too,
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這都是維多多和前幾任
領導人做的事情,
08:20
thereby stealing the Islamists' thunder.
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因此伊斯蘭教就沒有發揮的空間。
08:23
They also cracked down hard on terrorism,
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他們也全力打擊恐怖主義,
08:26
but Indonesia's democrats
have learned a key lesson
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但是印尼的民主人士
從過去黑暗的專制年代中
08:28
from the dark years of dictatorship,
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學到了寶貴的經驗,
08:30
namely that repression
only creates more extremism.
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那就是打壓只會
帶來更多的極端主義。
08:36
So they waged their war
with extraordinary delicacy.
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所以他們很小心地在處理這件事。
08:40
They used the police instead of the army.
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他們動用警察來維安,
而不是用軍隊。
08:42
They only detained suspects
if they had enough evidence.
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他們只有在足夠的證據下
才會抓捕嫌疑人。
08:45
They held public trials.
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他們會舉行公開的審問。
08:46
They even sent
liberal imams into the jails
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他們甚至讓伊斯蘭教長進入監獄
去勸說伊斯蘭聖戰士,
08:49
to persuade the jihadists
that terror is un-Islamic.
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恐怖主義是違背伊斯蘭主義的。
08:52
And all of this paid off
in spectacular fashion,
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這些措舉得到了驚人的回報,
08:55
creating the kind of country
that was unimaginable 20 years ago.
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創造了一個在 20 年前
人們無法想像的國家。
09:00
So at this point,
my optimism should, I hope,
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所以,我會樂觀的原因
09:03
be starting to make a bit more sense.
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不是沒有道理的。
09:05
Neither immigration nor Islamic extremism
are impossible to deal with.
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移民和伊斯蘭極端主義的問題
再也不可能無法解決。
09:10
Join me now on one last trip,
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現在和我一起進行最後一段旅程,
09:12
this time to Mexico.
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接下來是去墨西哥。
09:14
Now, of our three stories,
this one probably surprised me the most,
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這三個故事中,
墨西哥是最讓我驚訝的,
09:18
since as you all know,
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因為大家都知道,
09:19
the country is still struggling
with so many problems.
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這個國家仍然有許多問題沒有解決。
09:22
And yet, a few years ago,
Mexico did something
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但是,幾年前,墨西哥做了一些
09:25
that many other countries
from France to India to the United States
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許多國家,包括法國、印度和美國
09:30
can still only dream of.
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做不到的事情。
09:32
It shattered the political paralysis
that had gripped it for years.
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墨西哥打破了困擾它
多年的政治僵局。
09:37
To understand how,
we need to rewind to the year 2000,
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為了了解他們是怎麼做到的,
我們需要回到 2000 年,
09:40
when Mexico finally became a democracy.
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當時墨西哥終於成為了
一個民主國家。
09:42
Rather than use their new freedoms
to fight for reform,
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墨西哥政治家沒利用
剛得到的自由來推動改革。
09:47
Mexico's politicians used them
to fight one another.
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而是利用它們在做鬥爭,
09:50
Congress deadlocked,
and the country's problems --
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國會陷入僵局,
而且這個國家面臨的問題——
09:53
drugs, poverty, crime, corruption --
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毒品、貧困、犯罪、貪腐——
09:56
spun out of control.
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完全失控。
09:58
Things got so bad that in 2008,
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事態變得非常惡劣,
以至於在 2008 年,
10:00
the Pentagon warned
that Mexico risked collapse.
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美國國防部發出警告說,
墨西哥政府有垮台的危機。
10:04
Then in 2012, this guy
named Enrique Peña Nieto
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然後在 2012 年,
這個叫恩里克·潘尼亞·尼托的人
10:09
somehow got himself elected president.
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透過某種方式當上了總統。
10:11
Now, this Peña hardly inspired
much confidence at first.
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一開始,潘尼亞幾乎沒有
激勵到人們的信心。
10:16
Sure, he was handsome,
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沒錯,他很帥氣,
10:18
but he came from Mexico's
corrupt old ruling party, the PRI,
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但是他來自墨西哥腐敗的
老執政黨,革命制度黨,
10:22
and he was a notorious womanizer.
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而且他是一位名聲不太好的花心男。
10:26
In fact, he seemed
like such a pretty boy lightweight
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事實上,他笑起來像個
天真無邪的小男孩,
10:29
that women called him "bombón," sweetie,
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所以在競舉期間,
女人叫他「小甜心」。
10:32
at campaign rallies.
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10:35
And yet this same bombón
soon surprised everyone
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但是這個小甜心
很快就跌破了大家的眼鏡,
10:39
by hammering out a truce
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因為他平息了這個國家
10:40
between the country's
three warring political parties.
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三個政黨的激烈鬥爭。
10:43
And over the next 18 months,
they together passed
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而且在過去的 18 個月中,
他們一起通過了
10:45
an incredibly comprehensive
set of reforms.
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一系列難以置信的全面改革措施。
10:48
They busted open Mexico's
smothering monopolies.
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他們開放了墨西哥財團壟斷的事業。
10:51
They liberalized
its rusting energy sector.
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他們把腐化的能源行業給自由化了。
10:55
They restructured
its failing schools, and much more.
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他們重建了每況愈下的學校,
還有很多組織。
10:58
To appreciate the scale
of this accomplishment,
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為了了解這些成就有多了不起,
11:00
try to imagine the US Congress
passing immigration reform,
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4216
試想一下美國國會
正在修正的移民法案、
11:04
campaign finance reform
and banking reform.
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2936
競選經費改革和銀行系統改革法案。
11:07
Now, try to imagine Congress
doing it all at the same time.
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現在,試想一下,國會
要在同一時間將這些法案通過。
11:11
That's what Mexico did.
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1200
墨西哥辦到了。
11:14
Not long ago, I met with Peña
and asked how he managed it all.
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不久前,我跟潘尼亞碰面,
我問他,他是如何做到的。
11:18
The President flashed me
his famous twinkly smile --
218
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總統給了我一個迷人的微笑——
11:21
(Laughter)
219
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1760
(笑聲)
11:24
and told me that the short answer
was "compromiso," compromise.
220
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4936
然後告訴我一個
簡短的答案:「妥協」。
11:29
Of course, I pushed him for details,
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當然,我追問了更多的細節,
11:31
and the long answer
that came out was essentially
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2536
最終得到的更長答案是
11:33
"compromise, compromise
and more compromise."
223
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2600
「妥協、妥協、再妥協」。
11:37
See, Peña knew that he needed
to build trust early,
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潘尼亞知道他需要儘早建立信任,
11:40
so he started talking to the opposition
just days after his election.
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3776
所以他在選舉結束後
就開始和反對黨協商。
11:43
To ward off pressure
from special interests,
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2336
為了避開特殊利益群體的壓力,
11:46
he kept their meetings small and secret,
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他讓會議以小規模形式秘密舉行,
11:49
and many of the participants
later told me that it was this intimacy,
228
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4296
很多參與者之後告訴我,
正是這種親密關係
加上共享的龍舌蘭酒,
11:53
plus a lot of shared tequila,
229
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1656
11:55
that helped build confidence.
230
715040
1920
幫助建立了信心。
11:57
So did the fact that all decisions
had to be unanimous,
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2856
為了讓所有的決議一致通過,
12:00
and that Peña even agreed to pass
some of the other party's priorities
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4136
潘尼亞甚至讓其它黨派的重大議題
12:04
before his own.
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1200
比他自己黨派的議題先通過。
12:06
As Santiago Creel,
an opposition senator, put it to me,
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3056
正如聖地亞哥·克里爾,
一名反對黨的議員,對我說的:
12:09
"Look, I'm not saying that I'm special
or that anyone is special,
235
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4656
「你看,我不是說我很特別,
或者某個人很特別,
12:14
but that group, that was special."
236
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2840
而是那個團隊,
是那個團隊很特別。」
12:18
The proof?
237
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證據呢?
12:19
When Peña was sworn in, the pact held,
238
739280
3336
潘尼亞就職之後,信守承諾,
12:22
and Mexico moved forward
for the first time in years.
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3160
在經過多年內亂後,
帶領墨西哥第一次向前行。
12:27
Bueno.
240
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1216
太棒了。
12:28
So now we've seen
how these three countries
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現在我們知道了這三個國家是如何
12:31
overcame three of their great challenges.
242
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克服它們遇到的三個巨大挑戰。
12:33
And that's very nice for them, right?
243
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這對它們來說很棒,是不是?
12:35
But what good does it do the rest of us?
244
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但,這對我們其他人
來說有什麼好處呢?
12:39
Well, in the course of studying these
and a bunch of other success stories,
245
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嗯,在研究這些國家和
一些其它國家成功經歷的過程中,
12:42
like the way Rwanda pulled itself
back together after civil war
246
762600
4136
比如盧旺達如何在內戰結束後,
讓國家團結起來,
12:46
or Brazil has reduced inequality,
247
766760
2736
或者是巴西如何縮小了貧富差距,
12:49
or South Korea has kept its economy
growing faster and for longer
248
769520
3736
或者是韓國如何在經濟上
比世界上其它國家
12:53
than any other country on Earth,
249
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1936
增長得更快、更久。
12:55
I've noticed a few common threads.
250
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我有注意到一些共同的現象。
12:57
Now, before describing them,
I need to add a caveat.
251
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在我說明這些現象之前,
我需要補充一個注意事項。
13:00
I realize, of course,
that all countries are unique.
252
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2616
沒錯,我知道所有的國家
都有自己特殊的地方。
13:03
So you can't simply
take what worked in one,
253
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2696
所以你不能單純地把
適用於某個國家的措施
13:06
port it to another
and expect it to work there too.
254
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2696
套用到另一個國家上,
然後期待這個措施會一樣有效。
13:08
Nor do specific solutions work forever.
255
788920
2336
具體永久的解決方案
也一樣不可能。
13:11
You've got to adapt them
as circumstances change.
256
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2760
你需要根據環境,來調整這些方案。
13:14
That said, by stripping
these stories to their essence,
257
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3616
也就是說,藉由挖掘
這些故事的精髓,
13:18
you absolutely can distill
a few common tools for problem-solving
258
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4656
你絕對可以提煉出
幾個解決問題的方法,
13:23
that will work in other countries
259
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2936
來應用在其它國家、
13:26
and in boardrooms
260
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1296
應用在董事會,
13:27
and in all sorts of other contexts, too.
261
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2320
應用在各種情況都行。
13:30
Number one, embrace the extreme.
262
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3296
第一,擁抱極端。
13:33
In all the stories we've just looked at,
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1936
我們觀察到在所有的故事中,
13:35
salvation came at a moment
of existential peril.
264
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2920
轉機總是在危機中產生的。
13:39
And that was no coincidence.
265
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1856
那並不是巧合。
13:41
Take Canada: when Trudeau took office,
he faced two looming dangers.
266
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4320
以加拿大為例:當特魯多就職時,
他面臨了兩個危機。
13:46
First, though his vast,
underpopulated country
267
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2656
第一,雖然他那地廣、
人口稀少的國家
13:49
badly needed more bodies,
268
829320
1616
急需更多的人口,
13:50
its preferred source
for white workers, Europe,
269
830960
2616
加拿大比較喜歡的
白色人種輸出地——歐洲,
13:53
had just stopped exporting them
as it finally recovered from World War II.
270
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4056
才剛從二戰中復甦,
人口外移現象已經停止。
13:57
The other problem was
that Canada's long cold war
271
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2496
另一個問題是,加拿大
14:00
between its French
and its English communities
272
840200
2816
法語和英語社群之間的長期冷戰,
14:03
had just become a hot one.
273
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1640
當時是相當激烈的。
14:05
Quebec was threatening to secede,
274
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2176
魁北克當時威脅要退出加拿大,
14:07
and Canadians were actually
killing other Canadians over politics.
275
847480
3776
而且加拿大人實際上
因政治問題也在彼此殘殺。
14:11
Now, countries face
crises all the time. Right?
276
851280
3456
國家隨時都面臨危機,對吧?
14:14
That's nothing special.
277
854760
1240
那沒什麼特別的。
14:16
But Trudeau's genius
was to realize that Canada's crisis
278
856960
3776
但是特魯多厲害的地方就是,
他明白加拿大如果要擺脫
14:20
had swept away all the hurdles
that usually block reform.
279
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3560
長久以來阻礙改革的危機。
14:24
Canada had to open up. It had no choice.
280
864880
3360
加拿大必須打開國門,
因為它別無選擇。
14:29
And it had to rethink its identity.
281
869000
1816
而且加拿大必須重新
定位它的國家認同。
14:30
Again, it had no choice.
282
870840
1696
同樣,它也別無選擇。
14:32
And that gave Trudeau
a once-in-a-generation opportunity
283
872560
3536
而這給了特魯多一個
千載難逢的機會,
14:36
to break the old rules and write new ones.
284
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2600
讓他可以打破陳規,制定新規。
14:39
And like all our other heroes,
he was smart enough to seize it.
285
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3480
跟其他英雄一樣,他相當聰明,
所以抓住了這個機會。
14:44
Number two, there's power
in promiscuous thinking.
286
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2760
第二,不設限的想法有強大的力量。
14:48
Another striking similarity
among good problem-solvers
287
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2936
優秀的問題解決專家
都是實用主義者,
14:51
is that they're all pragmatists.
288
891160
2016
這是他們之間
另一個明顯的相似之處。
14:53
They'll steal the best answers
from wherever they find them,
289
893200
3176
他們會從其他地方
找到並偷學最佳的解決方案。
14:56
and they don't let details
290
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1376
而且他們不會讓細節
14:57
like party or ideology
or sentimentality get in their way.
291
897800
5336
比如政黨、意識形態或是
多愁善感的情緒阻礙他們。
15:03
As I mentioned earlier,
Indonesia's democrats were clever enough
292
903160
3296
正如我之前提到的,
印尼的民主人士相當聰明,
15:06
to steal many of the Islamists'
best campaign promises for themselves.
293
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4776
他們把伊斯蘭教徒最好的
競選承諾拿來自己用。
15:11
They even invited some of the radicals
into their governing coalition.
294
911280
3896
他們甚至邀請一些激進人士
加入他們的管理團隊。
15:15
Now, that horrified
a lot of secular Indonesians.
295
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3520
那種作法嚇壞了很多
世俗的印尼人士。
15:19
But by forcing the radicals
to actually help govern,
296
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4856
但請激進人士來協助管理,
15:24
it quickly exposed the fact
that they weren't any good at the job,
297
924720
3856
這些人不擅長管理的事實
很快就暴露了,
15:28
and it got them mixed up
in all of the grubby compromises
298
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3016
而且這也讓他們參與了
政治的暗門協商
15:31
and petty humiliations
that are part of everyday politics.
299
931640
3056
和每天無關緊要的政治謾罵。
15:34
And that hurt their image so badly
that they've never recovered.
300
934720
3400
他們的形象因此受損,
而且從未成功挽回。
15:39
Number three,
301
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1376
第三,
15:40
please all of the people some of the time.
302
940640
2840
有時要取悅所有人。
15:44
I know I just mentioned how crises
can grant leaders extraordinary freedoms.
303
944200
5096
我知道我剛剛有提到,
危機賦予領導人超乎尋常的自由。
15:49
And that's true, but problem-solving
often requires more than just boldness.
304
949320
3976
沒錯,但是解決問題需要的
不僅是只有大膽,
15:53
It takes showing restraint, too,
305
953320
2576
也需要表現出克制,
15:55
just when that's
the last thing you want to do.
306
955920
2656
就像那是你當時
最不想要做的一件事。
15:58
Take Trudeau: when he took office,
307
958600
1936
以特魯多為例:當他就職的時候,
16:00
he could easily have put
his core constituency,
308
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他完全可以優先考慮他的核心選民,
16:03
that is Canada's French community, first.
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也就是加拿大的法語社區,
16:05
He could have pleased
some of the people all of the time.
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他本來只需要取悅一部分人。
16:09
And Peña could have used his power
to keep attacking the opposition,
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同樣,潘尼亞本來也可以用
他的權利持續攻擊反對黨,
16:13
as was traditional in Mexico.
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就像墨西哥過去的傳統一樣。
16:15
Yet he chose to embrace
his enemies instead,
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但是他選擇接納他的敵人,
16:18
while forcing his own party to compromise.
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同時要求他自己的政黨作出妥協。
16:20
And Trudeau pushed everyone
to stop thinking in tribal terms
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特魯多要求每個人放下黨團意識,
16:25
and to see multiculturalism,
not language and not skin color,
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放下語言與膚色的隔閡,
16:29
as what made them
quintessentially Canadian.
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把多元文化視為他們
加拿大人典型的國家象徵。
16:32
Nobody got everything they wanted,
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沒有人可以得到他們想要的一切,
16:35
but everyone got just enough
that the bargains held.
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但每個人都得到了
剛剛好的協商成果。
16:40
So at this point you may be thinking,
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在這一刻,你也許在想,
16:43
"OK, Tepperman,
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「好的,特普曼,
16:44
if the fixes really are out there
like you keep insisting,
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如果這些方法就如你所說的那麼好,
16:47
then why aren't more countries
already using them?"
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那麼為什麼沒有更多的
國家採用這些方法呢?」
16:50
It's not like they require
special powers to pull off.
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這些方法並不需要
特殊的能力才能取得。
16:53
I mean, none of the leaders
we've just looked at were superheroes.
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我的意思是,我們剛才提到的
那些領導人也不是超級英雄,
16:56
They didn't accomplish
anything on their own,
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他們無法獨自完成事情,
16:59
and they all had plenty of flaws.
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而且他們都有很多缺陷。
17:01
Take Indonesia's
first democratic president,
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以印尼第一個民主總統,
17:03
Abdurrahman Wahid.
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阿卜杜拉赫曼·瓦希德,為例。
17:05
This man was so powerfully uncharismatic
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這個人超瞎,
17:08
that he once fell asleep
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他曾經
在自己的演講中睡著了。
17:10
in the middle of his own speech.
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17:12
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
17:14
True story.
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這是真的。
17:19
So what this tells us
is that the real obstacle is not ability,
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這告訴我們,真正的阻礙不是能力,
17:23
and it's not circumstances.
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也不是環境。
17:25
It's something much simpler.
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而是更簡單的事情。
17:27
Making big changes
involves taking big risks,
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做巨大的改變需要承擔高風險,
17:31
and taking big risks is scary.
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而承擔高風險是令人害怕的。
17:34
Overcoming that fear requires guts,
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克服那種恐懼需要勇氣,
17:37
and as you all know,
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正如各位所知,
17:39
gutsy politicians are painfully rare.
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有勇氣的政治家特別少。
17:43
But that doesn't mean we voters
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但那並不是代表我們選民
17:45
can't demand courage
from our political leaders.
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不能要求我們的政治領袖變得勇敢。
17:48
I mean, that's why we put them
in office in the first place.
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我的意思是,那就是我們當初
選他們出來的原因,
17:51
And given the state of the world today,
there's really no other option.
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因為考量到目前世界的處境,
我們真的別無選擇。
17:55
The answers are out there,
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解決問題的方法是存在的,
17:58
but now it's up to us
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但是現在需要由我們
18:01
to elect more women and men
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選出足夠勇敢的女性和男性
18:03
brave enough to find them,
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來找出那些解決方案,
18:06
to steal them
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偷學那些方法,
18:07
and to make them work.
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然後讓那些方法奏效。
18:09
Thank you.
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謝謝。
18:10
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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