What really motivates people to be honest in business | Alexander Wagner

翻译人员: 校对人员: Conway Ye

How many companies have you interacted with today?

你今天和多少公司有过接触？

Well, you got up in the morning,

早晨起床，

took a shower,

洗澡，

washed your hair,

洗头，

used a hair dryer,

吹干头发，

ate breakfast --

吃早餐，

ate cereals, fruit, yogurt, whatever --

吃麦片、水果、酸奶等等，

had coffee --

喝咖啡，

tea.

喝茶。

You took public transport to come here,

乘公共交通到这儿，

or maybe used your private car.

或者开着私家车。

You interacted with the company that you work for or that you own.

你会接触你上班的公司 或者是你开办的的公司。

You interacted with your clients,

你和客户打交道，

your customers,

和消费者接触，

and so on and so forth.

等等。

I'm pretty sure there are at least seven companies

我相信至少有七个公司，

you've interacted with today.

你今天接触了。

Let me tell you a stunning statistic.

让我分享一个惊人的数据。

One out of seven large, public corporations

七分之一的大型公立公司

commit fraud every year.

每年都会实行诈骗。

This is a US academic study that looks at US companies --

这是针对在美公司的学术研究，

I have no reason to believe that it's different in Europe.

我觉得这一点在欧洲应该也是一样的。

This is a study that looks at both detected and undetected fraud

该研究包括 所有已知和未知的诈骗，

using statistical methods.

使用的是统计方法。

This is not petty fraud.

我说的不是小型诈骗，

These frauds cost the shareholders of these companies,

这些欺诈导致公司的股东，

and therefore society,

以及社会

on the order of 380 billion dollars per year.

每年损失3800亿美元。

We can all think of some examples, right?

我们每个人都可以想到一些例子，

The car industry's secrets aren't quite so secret anymore.

比如汽车行业造假不再是秘密，

Fraud has become a feature,

对于金融服务业，

not a bug,

诈骗成为了特点，

of the financial services industry.

而不是错误。

That's not me who's claiming that,

不只我一个人如此控诉，

that's the president of the American Finance Association

美国金融协会的主席

who stated that in his presidential address.

在就职演讲时也提到过。

That's a huge problem if you think about, especially,

这是一个很严重的问题，

an economy like Switzerland,

像瑞士一样的经济体，

which relies so much on the trust put into its financial industry.

很大程度上依赖于金融行业的诚信。

On the other hand,

另一方面，

there are six out of seven companies who actually remain honest

尽管面临着各种诱惑，

despite all temptations to start engaging in fraud.

剩余七分之六的公司依然保持诚信。

There are whistle-blowers like Michael Woodford,

还有像迈克尔·伍德福德 一样的告密者，

who blew the whistle on Olympus.

他揭露了奥林巴斯的欺诈行为。

These whistle-blowers risk their careers,

这些告密者冒着丢掉工作，

their friendships,

失去朋友的风险，

to bring out the truth about their companies.

只为揭露真相。

There are journalists like Anna Politkovskaya

还有记者安娜·波利特科夫斯卡娅，

who risk even their lives to report human rights violations.

冒着生命危险揭露人权侵犯行为，

She got killed --

她被暗杀了——

every year,

每年，

around 100 journalists get killed

约100名记者被杀，

because of their conviction to bring out the truth.

就因为他们揭露了真相。

So in my talk today,

所以今天，

我想和你们分享一些我的观点，

I want to share with you some insights I've obtained and learned

in the last 10 years of conducting research in this.

这是通过过去十年研究得到的。

I'm a researcher, a scientist working with economists,

我是研究人员，一个和经济学家，

financial economists,

金融学家，

ethicists, neuroscientists,

伦理学家，神经学家，

lawyers and others

还有律师合作的科学家。

trying to understand what makes humans tick,

试图去寻找行为背后的动因，

and how can we address this issue of fraud in corporations

以及我们应如何杜绝公司欺诈的现象，

and therefore contribute to the improvement of the world.

从而促进世界的进步。

I want to start by sharing with you two very distinct visions

我将从关于人们的行为

的两种不同视角展开。

of how people behave.

First, meet Adam Smith,

首先，从亚当·斯密讲起，

founding father of modern economics.

他是现代经济学之父。

His basic idea was that if everybody behaves in their own self-interests,

他的基本观点是 如果每个人都追逐个人利益，

that's good for everybody in the end.

最后大家都能受益。

Self-interest isn't a narrowly defined concept

自利不是一个狭义的概念，

just for your immediate utility.

它并不是短期的利益，

It has a long-run implication.

它具有长远的意义。

Let's think about that.

想想看，

Think about this dog here.

想想这只小狗。

That might be us.

我们也会这样。

There's this temptation --

眼前有一个诱惑，

I apologize to all vegetarians, but --

我向素食主义者道歉，

(Laughter)

Dogs do like the bratwurst.

（笑声）

但小狗确实喜欢吃香肠。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Now, the straight-up, self-interested move here

自利促使它走到这里

is to go for that.

来拿香肠。

So my friend Adam here might jump up,

根据亚当·斯密的理论， 它会跃起，

get the sausage and thereby ruin all this beautiful tableware.

去拿香肠然后毁坏了精致的餐具。

But that's not what Adam Smith meant.

但这不是亚当斯密的本意。

He didn't mean disregard all consequences --

他不无视一切后果，

to the contrary.

恰恰相反，

He would have thought,

他会想到，

well, there may be negative consequences,

这可能会产生负面影响，

for example,

例如，

the owner might be angry with the dog

狗的主人可能会很愤怒，

and the dog, anticipating that, might not behave in this way.

狗在预想到这一点之后 就不会这么做了。

That might be us,

我们也是如此，

weighing the benefits and costs of our actions.

在成本和效益之间进行权衡。

How does that play out?

结果是怎么样的呢？

Well, many of you, I'm sure,

我相信很多人

have in your companies,

在你们的公司里，

especially if it's a large company,

特别是那些大公司，

a code of conduct.

都有行为规范。

And then if you behave according to that code of conduct,

如果你遵守了，

that improves your chances of getting a bonus payment.

你可能会得到奖金。

And on the other hand, if you disregard it,

但是如果你违反了，

then there are higher chances of not getting your bonus

你有可能会得不到奖金，

or its being diminished.

或者奖金数额减少。

In other words,

也就是说，

this is a very economic motivation

这个经济动机

of trying to get people to be more honest,

使人们更加诚实，

or more aligned with the corporation's principles.

或更遵守公司守则。

Similarly, reputation is a very powerful economic force, right?

声誉同样是很重要的动机。

We try to build a reputation,

我们试图建立声誉，

maybe for being honest,

也许在诚信方面，

because then people trust us more in the future.

这样人们在将来会更信任我们。

Right?

对吗？

Adam Smith talked about the baker

亚当·斯密谈过一个面包店

who's not producing good bread out of his benevolence

生产优质面包

for those people who consume the bread,

不是对现有的顾客的善良，

but because he wants to sell more future bread.

而是他想在未来卖更多面包。

In my research, we find, for example,

我们的研究发现，

at the University of Zurich,

比如，在苏黎世大学，

that Swiss banks who get caught up in media,

那些引发媒体报道的瑞士银行，

and in the context, for example,

可能由于

of tax evasion, of tax fraud,

偷税漏税

have bad media coverage.

引发负面的媒体报道。

They lose net new money in the future

他们损失了未来的收益，

and therefore make lower profits.

因此获得了更少的利润。

That's a very powerful reputational force.

这就是名誉的力量。

Benefits and costs.

收益和代价。

Here's another viewpoint of the world.

还有一个观点,

Meet Immanuel Kant,

来自伊曼努尔·康德，

18th-century German philosopher superstar.

18世纪德国哲学界的泰斗。

He developed this notion

他提出的观点是，

that independent of the consequences,

跟后果无关的行为，

some actions are just right

可能导致好的行为，

and some are just wrong.

也可能导致恶劣行为。

It's just wrong to lie, for example.

比如谎言就是错误的。

So, meet my friend Immanuel here.

根据康德的观点，

He knows that the sausage is very tasty,

尽管小狗知道香肠很美味，

but he's going to turn away because he's a good dog.

但它会离开， 因为这样才是正确的。

He knows it's wrong to jump up

它知道跳上去是错误的行为，

and risk ruining all this beautiful tableware.

因为这可能打碎所有精美的餐具。

If you believe that people are motivated like that,

如果你相信这种观点，

then all the stuff about incentives,

那么一切有关激励的东西，

all the stuff about code of conduct and bonus systems and so on,

一切行为准则还有奖金制度，

doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

都没什么意义了。

People are motivated by different values perhaps.

人们也许受不同的价值观驱动。

So, what are people actually motivated by?

那么什么才是 人们行为背后的真正动因呢？

These two gentlemen here have perfect hairdos,

这两位发型完美的大师，

but they give us very different views of the world.

提供了截然不同的世界观。

What do we do with this?

我们该怎么办呢？

Well, I'm an economist

我是一个经济学家。

and we conduct so-called experiments to address this issue.

我们通过实验来说话，

We strip away facts which are confusing in reality.

我们剔除生活中 那些匪夷所思的现象。

Reality is so rich, there is so much going on,

现实很丰满，它太丰富了，

it's almost impossible to know what drives people's behavior really.

我们几乎不可能找到 人们行为的真实动因。

So let's do a little experiment together.

那么让我们一起做一个小实验。

Imagine the following situation.

想象一个场景。

You're in a room alone,

你一个人在房间里，

not like here.

不像这个房间。

There's a five-franc coin like the one I'm holding up right now

你面前有一个五法郎硬币， 就像我手中

in front of you.

的这一枚一样。

Here are your instructions:

你需要

toss the coin four times,

掷四次硬币，

and then on a computer terminal in front of you,

然后你在面前的电脑上，

enter the number of times tails came up.

输入反面出现的次数。

This is the situation.

这就是整个过程。

Here's the rub.

现在有一个问题。

For every time that you announce that you had a tails throw,

每当你说你掷出反面时，

you get paid five francs.

你会得到五法郎。

So if you say I had two tails throws,

如果你说你掷出两次反面，

you get paid 10 francs.

你会得到十法郎。

If you say you had zero, you get paid zero francs.

如果你说你没有掷出反面， 你的收益为零。

If you say, "I had four tails throws,"

如果你说你掷出四次反面，

then you get paid 20 francs.

你会得到二十法郎。

It's anonymous,

这是匿名的，

nobody's watching what you're doing,

没有人会看你在做什么，

and you get paid that money anonymously.

你也会匿名获得收益。

I've got two questions for you.

我有两个问题。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

You know what's coming now, right?

你们知道我想问什么，对吗？

First, how would you behave in that situation?

第一，你们在这个情境下会怎么做？

The second, look to your left and look to your right --

第二，环顾四周——

(Laughter)

（笑声）

and think about how the person sitting next to you

思考一下你身边坐着的人

might behave in that situation.

会如何行动？

We did this experiment for real.

我们的确进行了这个实验。

We did it at the Manifesta art exhibition

最近在苏黎世举办的那个

that took place here in Zurich recently,

欧洲当代艺术双年展上，

not with students in the lab at the university

参与者不是大学实验室里的学生，

but with the real population,

而是普罗大众，

like you guys.

像你们一样。

First, a quick reminder of stats.

首先，让我们快速回顾一下数据。

If I throw the coin four times and it's a fair coin,

如果你掷一枚普通的硬币四次，

then the probability that it comes up four times tails

四次出现反面的概率，

is 6.25 percent.

是6.25%。

And I hope you can intuitively see

直观上，

that the probability that all four of them are tails is much lower

四次都出现反面的概率，

than if two of them are tails, right?

远小于两次都出现反面。

Here are the specific numbers.

现在有一些具体的数字。

Here's what happened.

过程是这样的。

People did this experiment for real.

经过真实的实验。

Around 30 to 35 percent of people said,

30%到35%的人说，

"Well, I had four tails throws."

“我掷了四次反面。”

That's extremely unlikely.

那几乎是不可能的。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

But the really amazing thing here,

然而，这里最不可思议的事情，

perhaps to an economist,

对于一位经济学家而言，

is there are around 65 percent of people who did not say I had four tails throws,

是有65%的人说 他们没有掷出四次反面，

even though in that situation,

即使在

nobody's watching you,

没有人监管的情况下，

the only consequence that's in place

并且唯一的结果是

is you get more money if you say four than less.

如果你说你掷了四次 就可以得到更多的奖金。

You leave 20 francs on the table by announcing zero.

当你说你没有掷出反面时 你失去了20法郎。

I don't know whether the other people all were honest

我不知道其他人是否诚实

or whether they also said a little bit higher or lower than what they did

或者他们有没有虚报次数，

because it's anonymous.

因为整个过程是匿名的。

我们只观察结果的分布。

We only observed the distribution.

But what I can tell you -- and here's another coin toss.

但要我说， 让我们再来掷一次硬币。

好了，是反面，

There you go, it's tails.

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Don't check, OK?

不要检查结果好吗？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

What I can tell you

我想说的是，

is that not everybody behaved like Adam Smith would have predicted.

并非所有人都按照 亚当·斯密的预测行动。

So what does that leave us with?

这意味着什么呢？

Well, it seems people are motivated by certain intrinsic values

人们似乎是被 某种特定的内在价值驱动，

and in our research, we look at this.

我们在研究中观察了这一点。

We look at the idea that people have so-called protected values.

我们观察到人们有 所谓的保护性价值观。

A protected value isn't just any value.

保护性价值观不同于平常的价值观。

A protected value is a value where you're willing to pay a price

它指你愿意为保护某种价值观

to uphold that value.

而付出代价。

You're willing to pay a price to withstand the temptation to give in.

你愿意为拒绝诱惑付出代价。

And the consequence is you feel better

结果就是你会更舒坦，

if you earn money in a way that's consistent with your values.

如果你的生财之道 符合你的价值观。

Let me show you this again in the metaphor of our beloved dog here.

让我们再回到刚刚那只小狗的比喻。

If we succeed in getting the sausage without violating our values,

如果我们在没有 违背价值观的情况下拿到香肠，

then the sausage tastes better.

那么这个香肠的味道可能会更好。

That's what our research shows.

这就是我们研究的结果。

If, on the other hand,

如果，从另一方面来看，

we do so --

我们

if we get the sausage

拿到了香肠，

and in doing so we actually violate values,

但是违背了我们的价值观，

we value the sausage less.

我们认为香肠的味道更差。

Quantitatively, that's quite powerful.

定量来说，这是强有力的结论。

We can measure these protected values,

我们可以衡量这些保护性价值观，

for example,

例如，

by a survey measure.

通过一个调查。

Simple, nine-item survey that's quite predictive in these experiments.

一个简单的九个问题 的调查就能证明实验结果。

If you think about the average of the population

人们的正常行为

and then there's a distribution around it --

会符合一个曲线的分布。

people are different, we all are different.

每个人都是不一样的。

People who have a set of protected values

有一套保护性价值观的人们，

that's one standard deviation above the average,

是一个高于平均水平的标准偏差，

they discount money they receive by lying by about 25 percent.

当他们撒谎时， 实际效用是平时的75%。

That means a dollar received when lying

这意味着在没有任何激励 他们诚实行事的情况下，

is worth to them only 75 cents

当他们得到1美元时，

without any incentives you put in place for them to behave honestly.

撒谎让他们觉得这只值75美分。

It's their intrinsic motivation.

这是他们的内在动机。

By the way, I'm not a moral authority.

我不是道德权威，

I'm not saying I have all these beautiful values, right?

我并不拥有所有美德。

But I'm interested in how people behave

但我对人们的行动感兴趣，

and how we can leverage that richness in human nature

以及我们如何利用人性的丰富性

to actually improve the workings of our organizations.

来实际改善组织的运转很感兴趣。

So there are two very, very different visions here.

有两种截然不同的观点。

On the one hand,

一种，

you can appeal to benefits and costs

成本和收益，

and try to get people to behave according to them.

你可以让人们 根据成本收益原则行动。

On the other hand,

另一种，

you can select people who have the values

选择价值观、

and the desirable characteristics, of course --

理想特质，

competencies that go in line with your organization.

还有才华和你公司相一致的人。

I do not yet know where these protected values really come from.

我暂时还不知道 这些保护性价值观的来源。

Is it nurture or is it nature?

不知道它是天生的还是后天培养的。

What I can tell you

我能告诉你们的是，

is that the distribution looks pretty similar for men and women.

男女之间的分布几乎一致。

It looks pretty similar for those who had studied economics

经济学专业和心理学专业

or those who had studied psychology.

的结果也很相近。

It looks even pretty similar around different age categories

不同成人年龄段的结果

among adults.

也很类似。

But I don't know yet how this develops over a lifetime.

但我不知道 这在人的一生中会如何发展，

That will be the subject of future research.

这会是未来研究的主题。

The idea I want to leave you with

我想告诉你们，

is it's all right to appeal to incentives.

要求奖励是没有问题的。

I'm an economist;

我是一个经济学家，

I certainly believe in the fact that incentives work.

我确信激励是有效的。

But do think about selecting the right people

但是要确保选择正确的人，

rather than having people and then putting incentives in place.

而不是随便找一些人 就把激励放在那儿。

Selecting the right people with the right values

选择拥有正确价值观的人

may go a long way to saving a lot of trouble

会为你的公司

and a lot of money

省去很多麻烦，

in your organizations.

还能节省成本。

In other words,

换句话说，

it will pay off to put people first.

以人为先是值得的。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）