What really motivates people to be honest in business | Alexander Wagner

234,583 views ・ 2017-09-26

TED


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譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: NAN-KUN WU
00:12
How many companies have you interacted with today?
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今天你和多少間公司互動過?
00:17
Well, you got up in the morning,
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你早上起床,
00:18
took a shower,
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先去淋浴,
00:19
washed your hair,
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洗洗頭髮,
00:21
used a hair dryer,
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用了吹風機,
00:22
ate breakfast --
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吃了早餐──
00:24
ate cereals, fruit, yogurt, whatever --
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吃的是穀片、水果、優格、等等──
00:25
had coffee --
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喝了咖啡
00:27
tea.
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或茶。
00:28
You took public transport to come here,
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你搭乘大眾交通工具到這裡,
00:30
or maybe used your private car.
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或是開你自己的車過來。
00:33
You interacted with the company that you work for or that you own.
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你和你上班的公司或是 你自己開的公司互動。
00:37
You interacted with your clients,
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你和你的客戶互動,
00:40
your customers,
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和你的顧客互動,
00:42
and so on and so forth.
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諸如此類。
00:43
I'm pretty sure there are at least seven companies
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我非常確定
你今天至少和七間公司互動過。
00:47
you've interacted with today.
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00:49
Let me tell you a stunning statistic.
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讓我告訴各位一個驚人的統計數據。
00:52
One out of seven large, public corporations
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每七間大型的上市公司中
00:57
commit fraud every year.
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每年會有一間犯下詐欺罪。
01:00
This is a US academic study that looks at US companies --
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這是美國的學術研究, 調查的對象是美國的公司──
01:03
I have no reason to believe that it's different in Europe.
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但我認為歐洲公司的情況類似。
01:07
This is a study that looks at both detected and undetected fraud
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被發現、未被發現的詐欺 兩者都被調查研究,
01:11
using statistical methods.
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使用的方法是統計。
01:13
This is not petty fraud.
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不是小欺小騙。
01:15
These frauds cost the shareholders of these companies,
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這些詐欺會造成公司股東的損失,
01:18
and therefore society,
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因此也造成社會的損失,
01:20
on the order of 380 billion dollars per year.
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每年損失約三千八百億美元。
01:24
We can all think of some examples, right?
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我們都能想出一些例子,對嗎?
01:27
The car industry's secrets aren't quite so secret anymore.
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汽車產業的秘密不再那麼秘密了。
01:31
Fraud has become a feature,
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在金融服務業,
詐欺已經變成了一種特性,
01:34
not a bug,
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而不是錯誤。
01:36
of the financial services industry.
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01:38
That's not me who's claiming that,
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並不是我自己在這麼說,
01:40
that's the president of the American Finance Association
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是美國財務學會的會長
01:43
who stated that in his presidential address.
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在他的會長演說當中說的。
01:46
That's a huge problem if you think about, especially,
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如果你仔細想想, 這是個很大的問題,
01:49
an economy like Switzerland,
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特別是在像瑞士這樣的經濟體中,
01:51
which relies so much on the trust put into its financial industry.
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瑞士非常仰賴人們對其 金融業投入的信任。
01:56
On the other hand,
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另一方面,
01:58
there are six out of seven companies who actually remain honest
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七間中的六間事實上維持著誠信,
02:01
despite all temptations to start engaging in fraud.
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它們抗拒了各種引誘 它們進行詐欺的誘惑。
02:06
There are whistle-blowers like Michael Woodford,
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有像邁克爾伍德福特這樣的告密者,
02:08
who blew the whistle on Olympus.
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他告了奧林巴斯的密。
02:10
These whistle-blowers risk their careers,
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這些告密者賭上他們的職涯
02:13
their friendships,
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和友情,
02:14
to bring out the truth about their companies.
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揭露他們公司的真相。
02:16
There are journalists like Anna Politkovskaya
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有像安娜波利特科夫 斯卡婭這樣的記者,
02:19
who risk even their lives to report human rights violations.
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冒著生命危險去報導 違反人權的事件。
02:23
She got killed --
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後來她被殺了──
02:24
every year,
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每年,
02:25
around 100 journalists get killed
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有大約一百名記者
02:27
because of their conviction to bring out the truth.
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因為堅定地想要揭露真相而被殺害。
02:31
So in my talk today,
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在今天這場演說,
02:33
I want to share with you some insights I've obtained and learned
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我想和各位分享的是我過去十年間
02:36
in the last 10 years of conducting research in this.
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在研究這個主題時 所學到的一些洞見。
02:39
I'm a researcher, a scientist working with economists,
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我是個研究者、科學家,
合作的對象有經濟學家、
02:43
financial economists,
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金融經濟學家、
02:44
ethicists, neuroscientists,
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倫理學家、神經科學家、 律師,以及其他的人。
02:46
lawyers and others
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02:48
trying to understand what makes humans tick,
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我嘗試要了解是什麼在驅使人類,
02:50
and how can we address this issue of fraud in corporations
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以及我們如何處理 企業內的詐欺議題,
02:55
and therefore contribute to the improvement of the world.
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因而對改善世界貢獻一份心力。
02:59
I want to start by sharing with you two very distinct visions
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一開始,我想分享兩個 非常不同的看法,
03:02
of how people behave.
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對於人的行為的看法。
03:04
First, meet Adam Smith,
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首先,來見見亞當史密斯,
03:07
founding father of modern economics.
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現代經濟學之父。
03:10
His basic idea was that if everybody behaves in their own self-interests,
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他的基本想法是: 如果每個人都依自身利益而行,
03:14
that's good for everybody in the end.
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最終,那對每個人而言都是好的。
03:17
Self-interest isn't a narrowly defined concept
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自身利益不是一個 定義很狹隘的觀念,
03:20
just for your immediate utility.
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不是只為了立即的功利。
03:22
It has a long-run implication.
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它有著長期的意涵。
03:24
Let's think about that.
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我們來想想這一點。
03:26
Think about this dog here.
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想想圖上的這隻狗。
03:28
That might be us.
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牠可能就是我們。
03:31
There's this temptation --
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圖上有著誘惑──
03:32
I apologize to all vegetarians, but --
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我要向所有的素食者道歉,但──
03:34
(Laughter)
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03:35
Dogs do like the bratwurst.
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(笑聲)
狗確實喜歡臘腸。
03:37
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
03:40
Now, the straight-up, self-interested move here
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這裡最直接、最以 自身利益為主的做法,
03:43
is to go for that.
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就是去取得臘腸。
03:44
So my friend Adam here might jump up,
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所以我的朋友亞當,可能會跳上去,
03:47
get the sausage and thereby ruin all this beautiful tableware.
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取得臘腸,因而把 所有的美麗餐具都給毀了。
03:51
But that's not what Adam Smith meant.
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但那並不是亞當史密斯的意思。
03:53
He didn't mean disregard all consequences --
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他並不是說要不顧一切的後果──
03:56
to the contrary.
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其實相反。
03:57
He would have thought,
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他會想,
03:58
well, there may be negative consequences,
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也許會有負面的後果,
04:00
for example,
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比如,
04:02
the owner might be angry with the dog
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主人可能會對狗發怒,
04:05
and the dog, anticipating that, might not behave in this way.
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而狗能預期到這一點, 就不會做出這個行為。
04:09
That might be us,
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那可能就是我們,
04:10
weighing the benefits and costs of our actions.
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權衡我們每個行動的利益和成本。
04:14
How does that play out?
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那會產生什麼結果?
04:15
Well, many of you, I'm sure,
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我相信,在座許多人,
04:17
have in your companies,
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在你們的公司裡,
04:19
especially if it's a large company,
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特別是大公司裡,
04:21
a code of conduct.
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會有「行為準則」。
04:22
And then if you behave according to that code of conduct,
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如果你根據行為準則來做事,
04:26
that improves your chances of getting a bonus payment.
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就能讓你比較有機會得到獎金。
04:29
And on the other hand, if you disregard it,
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另一方面,如果你漠視它,
04:31
then there are higher chances of not getting your bonus
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就比較有可能得不到獎金,
04:34
or its being diminished.
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或是獎金會縮水。
04:35
In other words,
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換言之,
04:37
this is a very economic motivation
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這是個非常經濟的動機,
04:39
of trying to get people to be more honest,
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試圖讓人們更誠實,
04:41
or more aligned with the corporation's principles.
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或是更符合公司的原則。
04:46
Similarly, reputation is a very powerful economic force, right?
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同樣地,名聲也是種非常 強大的經濟力量,對吧?
04:51
We try to build a reputation,
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我們試圖建立名聲,
04:52
maybe for being honest,
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也許是誠實的名聲,
04:54
because then people trust us more in the future.
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因為這樣做,人們將來會更信任我們。
04:57
Right?
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對嗎?
04:59
Adam Smith talked about the baker
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亞當史密斯談到一個麵包師傅,
05:01
who's not producing good bread out of his benevolence
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他為那些消費者製作好的麵包,
05:04
for those people who consume the bread,
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並不是出於善心,
05:07
but because he wants to sell more future bread.
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而是因為他想要在未來 能賣出更多麵包。
05:11
In my research, we find, for example,
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在我的研究中,我們發現,比如,
05:14
at the University of Zurich,
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在蘇黎世大學,
05:15
that Swiss banks who get caught up in media,
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瑞士銀行被捲入媒體當中,
05:20
and in the context, for example,
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例如在逃稅或稅務詐欺的情況下,
05:22
of tax evasion, of tax fraud,
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05:23
have bad media coverage.
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有很糟的媒體報導。
05:25
They lose net new money in the future
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他們就會在未來失去淨新增資金,
05:28
and therefore make lower profits.
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因此賺的利潤就會減少。
05:30
That's a very powerful reputational force.
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那是非常強大的名聲力量。
05:34
Benefits and costs.
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利益和成本。
05:36
Here's another viewpoint of the world.
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世界上有另一種觀點。
05:39
Meet Immanuel Kant,
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來見見伊曼努爾康德,
05:41
18th-century German philosopher superstar.
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十八世紀的明星德國哲學家。
05:44
He developed this notion
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他發展出了這個概念:
05:46
that independent of the consequences,
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和結果無關,
05:49
some actions are just right
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有些行為就是對的,
05:52
and some are just wrong.
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有些就是錯的。
05:54
It's just wrong to lie, for example.
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比如,說謊就是錯的。
05:57
So, meet my friend Immanuel here.
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所以,來見見我的朋友伊曼努爾。
06:00
He knows that the sausage is very tasty,
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牠知道香腸非常可口,
06:03
but he's going to turn away because he's a good dog.
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但牠打算調頭走開, 因為牠是條好狗。
06:05
He knows it's wrong to jump up
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牠知道跳上去是錯的,
06:08
and risk ruining all this beautiful tableware.
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有可能會打破所有這些漂亮的餐具。
06:12
If you believe that people are motivated like that,
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如果你相信人們會被 這樣的動機驅使,
06:14
then all the stuff about incentives,
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那麼所有關於獎勵的一切,
06:16
all the stuff about code of conduct and bonus systems and so on,
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那麼所有關於行為準則、 獎金制度等等的一切,
06:20
doesn't make a whole lot of sense.
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就不是很有道理了。
06:22
People are motivated by different values perhaps.
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人們被不同的價值觀驅使,也許吧。
06:27
So, what are people actually motivated by?
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所以人們的動機到底是什麼?
06:30
These two gentlemen here have perfect hairdos,
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這裡的兩位先生有著完美的髮型,
06:32
but they give us very different views of the world.
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但他們給我們非常不同的世界觀。
06:37
What do we do with this?
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對此,我們該怎麼辦?
06:38
Well, I'm an economist
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嗯,我是經濟學家,
06:40
and we conduct so-called experiments to address this issue.
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而我們會進行所謂的實驗, 來處理這個議題。
06:44
We strip away facts which are confusing in reality.
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我們會剝除在現實中讓我們困惑的事實,
06:48
Reality is so rich, there is so much going on,
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現實非常的豐富, 有太多事情在發生,
06:50
it's almost impossible to know what drives people's behavior really.
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幾乎不可能知道 什麼真正驅動人類的行為。
06:55
So let's do a little experiment together.
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所以,讓我們一起來做個小實驗。
06:58
Imagine the following situation.
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想像下面的情境。
07:02
You're in a room alone,
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你單獨在一間房間中,
07:04
not like here.
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不像這裡這麼多人。
07:06
There's a five-franc coin like the one I'm holding up right now
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有一個五法郎硬幣, 就像我手上的這個,
07:10
in front of you.
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硬幣就在你面前。
07:11
Here are your instructions:
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你得到的指示是:
07:13
toss the coin four times,
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擲硬幣四次,
07:17
and then on a computer terminal in front of you,
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接著,在你面前的電腦終端機上,
07:20
enter the number of times tails came up.
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輸入硬幣出現反面的次數。
07:23
This is the situation.
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情境就是這樣。
07:25
Here's the rub.
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難處在這裏:
07:26
For every time that you announce that you had a tails throw,
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每次你宣佈你擲出了反面,
07:30
you get paid five francs.
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你就會得到五法郎。
07:31
So if you say I had two tails throws,
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所以如果你說我擲出兩次反面,
07:34
you get paid 10 francs.
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你就會得十法郎。
07:36
If you say you had zero, you get paid zero francs.
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如果你說你沒擲出反面, 你就會得到零法郎。
07:39
If you say, "I had four tails throws,"
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如果你說:「我擲出四次反面」,
07:41
then you get paid 20 francs.
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你就會得到二十法郎。
07:43
It's anonymous,
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這是匿名的,
07:45
nobody's watching what you're doing,
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沒有人在看你做,
07:47
and you get paid that money anonymously.
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付錢給你時也是匿名的。
07:49
I've got two questions for you.
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我要問各位兩個問題。
07:51
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
07:53
You know what's coming now, right?
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你們知道接下來是什麼吧?
07:55
First, how would you behave in that situation?
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第一,在這個情境,你會怎麼做?
08:00
The second, look to your left and look to your right --
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第二,看看你的左邊, 看看你的右邊──
08:03
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
08:04
and think about how the person sitting next to you
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想想坐在你旁邊的人
08:06
might behave in that situation.
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在這情境可能會怎麼做。
08:08
We did this experiment for real.
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我們真做了這個實驗。
08:10
We did it at the Manifesta art exhibition
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我們是在最近蘇黎世這裡舉行的
08:13
that took place here in Zurich recently,
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Manifesta 藝術展覽上做的,
08:15
not with students in the lab at the university
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不是在大學實驗室裡對學生做的,
08:18
but with the real population,
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對象是真正的一般大眾,
08:20
like you guys.
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就像在座各位。
08:21
First, a quick reminder of stats.
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首先,快速提醒大家一下統計數字,
08:24
If I throw the coin four times and it's a fair coin,
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如果你擲硬幣四次, 且它是個公平的硬幣,
08:27
then the probability that it comes up four times tails
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四次都是反面的機率
08:31
is 6.25 percent.
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是 6.25%。
08:34
And I hope you can intuitively see
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希望你們用直覺就能看出,
08:36
that the probability that all four of them are tails is much lower
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四次都是反面的機率
08:39
than if two of them are tails, right?
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遠低於兩次是反面的機率,對吧?
08:42
Here are the specific numbers.
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這裡是明確的數據。
08:45
Here's what happened.
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而結果如下。
08:47
People did this experiment for real.
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人們真的做了這個實驗。
08:50
Around 30 to 35 percent of people said,
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大約 30%~35% 的人說:
08:53
"Well, I had four tails throws."
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「嗯,我擲出四次反面。」
08:57
That's extremely unlikely.
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那是極度不可能的。
08:59
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
09:01
But the really amazing thing here,
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但,真正驚人的是,
09:04
perhaps to an economist,
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也許對經濟學家而言,驚人的是:
09:05
is there are around 65 percent of people who did not say I had four tails throws,
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大約 65% 的人 沒說他們擲出四次反面,
09:12
even though in that situation,
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即使在那個情境中,
09:14
nobody's watching you,
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沒有人在看你,
09:16
the only consequence that's in place
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唯一會發生的後果是:
09:18
is you get more money if you say four than less.
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假如你說四次而不是少於四次, 得的錢就會比較多;
09:21
You leave 20 francs on the table by announcing zero.
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如果你宣稱零次,就放棄了二十法郎。
09:25
I don't know whether the other people all were honest
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我不知道其他人是否都誠實,
09:28
or whether they also said a little bit higher or lower than what they did
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或是他們會把數字向上或向下調整,
09:31
because it's anonymous.
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因為這是匿名的。
09:33
We only observed the distribution.
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我們只是觀察數據分佈。
09:34
But what I can tell you -- and here's another coin toss.
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但我可以告訴各位── 這是另一次擲硬幣結果。
09:37
There you go, it's tails.
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來了,是反面。
09:39
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
09:40
Don't check, OK?
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別來確認,好嗎?
09:42
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
09:44
What I can tell you
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我能告訴你們的是,
09:46
is that not everybody behaved like Adam Smith would have predicted.
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並非每個人的行為 都如亞當史密斯所預測。
09:52
So what does that leave us with?
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所以這告訴我們什麼?
09:54
Well, it seems people are motivated by certain intrinsic values
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嗯,似乎人們會被某種 內在的價值觀所驅使,
09:58
and in our research, we look at this.
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在研究中,我們調查了這點。
10:01
We look at the idea that people have so-called protected values.
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我們探討了人會有所謂的 「被保護的價值觀」的這個想法。
10:06
A protected value isn't just any value.
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被保護的價值觀並非任何價值觀。
10:09
A protected value is a value where you're willing to pay a price
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被保護的價值觀是 你願意付出一個代價
10:15
to uphold that value.
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來維持的價值。
10:16
You're willing to pay a price to withstand the temptation to give in.
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你願意付出一個代價來 對抗要你屈服的誘惑。
10:22
And the consequence is you feel better
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而結果就是,如果你賺到錢的方式
10:24
if you earn money in a way that's consistent with your values.
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和你的價值觀是一致的, 你的感覺會比較好。
10:29
Let me show you this again in the metaphor of our beloved dog here.
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讓我再次用我們都愛的 狗狗比喻來說明。
10:34
If we succeed in getting the sausage without violating our values,
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如果我們不違反價值觀 而成功地取得香腸,
10:38
then the sausage tastes better.
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那麼香腸嚐起來的味道比較好。
10:40
That's what our research shows.
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那就是我們的研究發現。
10:42
If, on the other hand,
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另一方面,
10:43
we do so --
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若我們這樣做──
10:45
if we get the sausage
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如果我們取得香腸,
10:46
and in doing so we actually violate values,
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用的是違反價值觀的方式,
10:50
we value the sausage less.
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我們也會比較不珍視這香腸。
10:53
Quantitatively, that's quite powerful.
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就量化而言,相當強而有力。
10:55
We can measure these protected values,
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我們能夠測量這些被保護的價值觀,
10:57
for example,
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比如,
10:59
by a survey measure.
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可以用問卷調查來測量。
11:02
Simple, nine-item survey that's quite predictive in these experiments.
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簡單的九題問卷調查
是非常容易預測結果的實驗。
11:08
If you think about the average of the population
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如果考量人數平均值,
11:10
and then there's a distribution around it --
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平均值的周邊會呈現一種分佈──
11:12
people are different, we all are different.
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人各不相同,我們都不一樣。
11:15
People who have a set of protected values
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持有著一組保護價值觀
11:18
that's one standard deviation above the average,
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比平均值高出一個標準差的那些人,
11:22
they discount money they receive by lying by about 25 percent.
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透過說謊得到的金錢價值 大約會被他們打個 75 折。
11:27
That means a dollar received when lying
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也就是說,說謊得到的一塊錢,
11:31
is worth to them only 75 cents
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和誠實得到的一塊錢相比,
11:33
without any incentives you put in place for them to behave honestly.
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只值 75 分錢而已。
11:37
It's their intrinsic motivation.
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那是他們的內在動機。
11:38
By the way, I'm not a moral authority.
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順便一提,我並非道德權威。
11:40
I'm not saying I have all these beautiful values, right?
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我並不是說我有所有這些 美好的價值觀。
11:44
But I'm interested in how people behave
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但我感興趣的是人的行為,
11:46
and how we can leverage that richness in human nature
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以及如何讓人類本性中的 豐富特性能夠發揮功效,
11:49
to actually improve the workings of our organizations.
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來實際改善在組織內的工作。
11:54
So there are two very, very different visions here.
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所以,這裡有兩種非常不同的觀點。
11:57
On the one hand,
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一方面,
11:58
you can appeal to benefits and costs
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你可以訴諸利益和成本,
12:01
and try to get people to behave according to them.
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嘗試讓人們依利益和成本而行。
12:04
On the other hand,
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另一方面,
12:06
you can select people who have the values
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當然你可以篩選具有價值觀
12:10
and the desirable characteristics, of course --
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和具有你所想要之特質的人──
12:12
competencies that go in line with your organization.
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能夠配合你的組織。
12:16
I do not yet know where these protected values really come from.
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我還不知道
這些受保護的價值觀來自何處。
12:20
Is it nurture or is it nature?
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是後天養成還是天性?
12:23
What I can tell you
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但我能告訴各位,
12:25
is that the distribution looks pretty similar for men and women.
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男性和女性的分佈很類似。
12:30
It looks pretty similar for those who had studied economics
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學經濟的人和學心理學的人,
12:33
or those who had studied psychology.
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他們的分佈看起來很相似。
12:37
It looks even pretty similar around different age categories
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不同年齡層的成人 他們的分佈還更相似。
12:41
among adults.
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12:42
But I don't know yet how this develops over a lifetime.
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但我還不知道一輩子的進展會怎樣。
12:45
That will be the subject of future research.
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那將會是未來的研究主題。
12:49
The idea I want to leave you with
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我想留給各位的想法是,
12:51
is it's all right to appeal to incentives.
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被獎勵所吸引是沒關係的。
12:53
I'm an economist;
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我是經濟學家;
12:55
I certainly believe in the fact that incentives work.
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我肯定相信獎勵是有效的。
12:59
But do think about selecting the right people
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但你一定要考慮篩選對的人,
13:03
rather than having people and then putting incentives in place.
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而不只是先把人招來,再提供獎勵。
13:06
Selecting the right people with the right values
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篩選對的、有正確價值觀的人,
13:09
may go a long way to saving a lot of trouble
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可成功地為你的組織
省掉很多麻煩、
13:13
and a lot of money
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和很多金錢。
13:14
in your organizations.
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13:16
In other words,
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換言之,
13:17
it will pay off to put people first.
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把「人」放在首位必有好收穫。
13:21
Thank you.
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謝謝。
13:23
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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