How shocking events can spark positive change | Naomi Klein

翻译人员: Wendy Li 校对人员: 진영 윤

There's a question I've been puzzling over and writing about

有一个我一直在思考和写作的问题

for pretty much all of my adult life.

占据了我成年的大部分生活。

Why do some large-scale crises

为什么一些大规模的危机

jolt us awake and inspire us to change and evolve

可以警醒并且启示我们 去改变和进化，

while others might jolt us a bit,

而一些其他的事件却只能 造成一些小小的扰动，

but then it's back to sleep?

然后很快归于平静？

Now, the kind of shocks I'm talking about are big --

我现在在说的危机是巨大的，

a cataclysmic market crash, rising fascism,

是一个灾难性的市场崩盘， 一种日渐抬头的法西斯主义，

an industrial accident that poisons on a massive scale.

或者一个毒害了无数人的 工业界事故。

Now, events like this can act like a collective alarm bell.

这样的事件可以 被当作一个集体的警钟。

Suddenly, we see a threat, we get organized.

即使突然遇到威胁， 我们也能沉着应对。

We discover strength and resolve that was previously unimaginable.

我们找到了前所未有 的力量和决心。

It's as if we're no longer walking, but leaping.

就像面对威胁，我们 不再靠走，而是飞跃。

Except, our collective alarm seems to be busted.

然而， 我们共同的警钟 似乎被毁坏了。

Faced with a crisis, we often fall apart, regress

面对危机，我们总是 崩溃，倒退，

and that becomes a window for antidemocratic forces

成为反民主力量的一扇窗，

to push societies backwards, to become more unequal and more unstable.

使得社会退步， 变得更不平等，更不稳定。

Ten years ago, I wrote about this backwards process

十年前，我写了一本 关于这种倒退的书，

and I called it the "Shock Doctrine."

题目是《休克主义： 灾难资本主义的兴起》。

So what determines which road we navigate through crisis?

那么，什么决定了 我们选择哪条路来度过危机呢？

Whether we grow up fast and find those strengths

无论是我们能快速成长并获得力量

or whether we get knocked back.

还是被其击败。

And I'd say this is a pressing question these days.

这可以说是当今一个很紧迫的问题。

Because things are pretty shocking out there.

想想那些触目惊心的灾难：

Record-breaking storms, drowning cities,

史无前例的暴风雨， 被洪水淹没的城市，

record-breaking fires threatening to devour them,

破纪录的大火灾吞噬了一切，

thousands of migrants disappearing beneath the waves.

数以千计的移民 被海浪吞噬。

And openly supremacist movements rising,

公开的种族优越主义运动开始抬头，

in many of our countries there are torches in the streets.

在许多国家，满街都是火炬。

And now there's no shortage of people who are sounding the alarm.

我们也绝不缺少 发出警告的人。

But as a society, I don't think we can honestly say

但是，作为一个社会， 我不觉得我们可以诚实地说，

that we're responding with anything like the urgency

我们对任何一件灾难 都做出了紧急回应，

that these overlapping crises demand from us.

就像这些重复发生的灾难 要求我们做的一样。

And yet, we know from history

我们已经从历史中得知，

that it is possible for crisis to catalyze a kind of evolutionary leap.

危机可能 催化某种革命性的飞跃。

And one of the most striking examples of this progressive power of crisis

其中关于这种危机的进步力量， 最惊人的例子之一是

is the Great Crash of 1929.

1929 年的经济大崩溃。

There was the shock of the sudden market collapse

突然的市场崩盘打击

followed by all of the aftershocks,

和紧随而来的余波

the millions who lost everything thrown onto breadlines.

让数以百万的人失去一切， 不得不排队领救济。

And this was taken by many as a message that the system itself was broken.

这个打击被许多人理解为 系统本身被破坏的信号。

And many people listened and they leapt into action.

许多人听了进去， 并且采取了行动。

In the United States and elsewhere, governments began to weave a safety net

在美国和其他地区， 许多政府开始建设安全保障网，

so that the next time there was a crash

以保证下次发生这类冲击时

there would be programs like social security to catch people.

会有像社会保障之类的项目 来保护人们。

There were huge job-creating public investments

有大量提供就业的 公共投资项目

in housing, electrification and transit.

投资了房屋，供电和运输。

And there was a wave of aggressive regulation

还有一波强势的法规

to reign in the banks.

被用来管理银行。

Now, these reforms were far from perfect.

这些改革还很不完善。

In the US, African American workers, immigrants and women

在美国， 非裔美国工人，移民和妇女

were largely excluded.

被很大程度地排除在外。

But the Depression period,

但在大萧条时期，

along with the transformation of allied nations and economies

伴随着同盟国 和经济在二战时期

during the World War II effort,

的转型，

show us that it is possible for complex societies

这告诉了我们，在复杂社会

to rapidly transform themselves in the face of a collective threat.

面对集体威胁时， 快速转型是可能的。

Now, when we tell this story of the 1929 Crash,

当我们讲述 1929 年大崩溃的故事时，

通常使用这样的公式， 它遵循——

that's usually the formula that it follows --

that there was a shock and it induced a wake-up call

一个震惊时间， 它为我们敲响了警钟，

and that produced a leap to a safer place.

二者结合会带领我们 飞跃到更安全的地方。

Now, if that's really what it took,

如果真是这样，

then why isn't it working anymore?

这个公式现在为什么没有用了？

为什么如今世界震荡不停，

Why do today's non-stop shocks --

why don't they spur us into action?

为什么它们不鞭策我们采取行动？

Why don't they produce leaps?

为什么它们不催生飞跃，

Especially when it comes to climate change.

尤其是面对气候变化时？

So I want to talk to you today

所以今天我想要讨论的是

about what I think is a much more complete recipe for deep transformation

一个我认为更完整的， 由震惊事件促成

catalyzed by shocking events.

的深层转变的奥秘。

And I'm going to focus on two key ingredients

我将专注讨论两个很关键，

that usually get left out of the history books.

却通常被历史书遗忘的成分。

One has to do with imagination, the other with organization.

一个和想象力有关， 另一个和组织有关。

Because it's in the interplay between the two

因为革命力量就在这两者之间

的相互作用中。

where revolutionary power lies.

So let's start with imagination.

让我们先从想象力说起。

The victories of the New Deal didn't happen just because suddenly

罗斯福新政的胜利 并非源于突然间

everybody understood the brutalities of laissez-faire.

大家明白了 放任自由主义的无情。

This was a time, let's remember, of tremendous ideological ferment,

要记住，这是惊人的 思想意识形态酝酿的时期，

when many different ideas about how to organize societies

许多不同的关于 怎样管理社会的想法

did battle with one another in the public square.

在公共广场相互斗争。

A time when humanity dared to dream big

人类敢于去 梦想不同的未来

about different kinds of futures,

其中许多都是按照

many of them organized along radically egalitarian lines.

极端平等主义的路线组织起来的。

Now, not all of these ideas were good

也许，不是所有的想法都是好的，

but this was an era of explosive imagining.

但是这是一个 想象爆炸的时代。

This meant that the movements demanding change

这意味着， 这些运动要求改变，

knew what they were against -- crushing poverty, widening inequality --

知道他们要反对什么—— 粉碎贫穷，扩大平等——

but just as important, they knew what they were for.

同样重要的是， 他们知道自己的目的。

They had their "no" and they had their "yes," too.

他们有说 “不” 的时候， 他们也有说 “是”的时候。

They also had very different models of political organization

相比现在，他们也有不同

than we do today.

的政治组织形式。

For decades, social and labor movements

数十年来， 社会和工人运动

had been building up their membership bases,

已经建立起他们的成员基础，

linking their causes together and increasing their strength.

结合共同的目标， 并提升了他们的力量。

Which meant that by the time the Crash happened,

这意味着在崩溃发生时，

there was already a movement that was large and broad enough

已经有一个 足够大而广泛的运动，

to, for instance, stage strikes that didn't just shut down factories,

例如去举行罢工， 不仅关闭了工厂，

but shut down entire cities.

甚至使整个城市停工。

The big policy wins of the New Deal were actually offered as compromises.

罗斯福新政的政治大胜利 实际上是作为妥协提出的。

Because the alternative seemed to be revolution.

因为新政之外的选择似乎只有革命。

So, let's adjust that equation from earlier.

那么让我们调整下 之前提到的公式。

A shocking event plus utopian imagination

一个震惊事件， 加上乌托邦式的想象，

plus movement muscle,

再加上运动作为肌肉，

that's how we get a real leap.

这就是我们如何实现 一个真正的飞跃。

So how does our present moment measure up?

那么我们现有的运动 该怎样符合这个标准呢？

We are living, once again, at a time of extraordinary political engagements.

再强调一次，我们正生活在 在一个政治参与度惊人的时代。

Politics is a mass obsession.

政治是大众的执念。

Progressive movements are growing and resisting with tremendous courage.

进步的运动在成长， 在以惊人的勇气抗争着。

And yet, we know from history that "no" is not enough.

但是，从历史中我们得知， 只有 “不” 是不够的。

Now, there are some "yeses" out there that are emerging.

现在，有一些 “是” 出现了，

And they're actually getting a lot bolder quickly.

并且它们正在 快速地变得更加醒目。

Where climate activists used to talk about changing light bulbs,

气候活动家过去常常 谈论改变灯泡，

now we're pushing for 100 percent of our energy

现在我们正在推动 百分百可再生的，

to come from the sun, wind and waves,

来自于太阳，风，和海浪的能源，

and to do it fast.

而且动作要快。

Movements catalyzed by police violence against black bodies

警察对黑人实施暴力所引发的运动

are calling for an end to militarized police, mass incarceration

正在呼吁结束军事化政治， 大规模监禁，

and even for reparations for slavery.

甚至对奴隶制进行赔偿。

Students are not just opposing tuition increases,

学生不仅反对提高学费，

but from Chile to Canada to the UK,

从智利到加拿大再到美国，

他们也在要求 免除学费和消除债务。

they are calling for free tuition and debt cancellation.

And yet, this still doesn't add up

可是，这些仍然没有达到

to the kind of holistic and universalist vision

我们的前辈对一个不同世界

of a different world than our predecessors had.

的整体和普遍主义的愿景。

So why is that?

为什么？

Well, very often we think about political change

如今，我们经常思考在界定好的区域里

in defined compartments these days.

发生的政治变革。

Environment in one box, inequality in another,

环境问题在一个盒子里， 不平等问题在另一个盒子里，

racial and gender justice in a couple of other boxes,

种族和性别公平问题 在其他几个盒子里，

education over here, health over there.

教育在这里， 健康在那里。

And within each compartment,

在每一个区域里，

there are thousands upon thousands of different groups and NGOs,

都有数以千计不同的 团体和非政府组织，

each competing with one another for credit, name recognition

为了信誉，名字的认可度——

and of course, resources.

当然，还有资源——而互相竞争。

换句话说， 我们表现得很像企业品牌。

In other words, we act a lot like corporate brands.

Now, this is often referred to as the problem of silos.

这个现象通常被称为筒仓问题。

筒仓是可以理解的。

Now, silos are understandable.

They carve up our complex world into manageable chunks.

它把我们复杂的世界 分成了方便管理的区块，

They help us feel less overwhelmed.

帮助我们减少了不知所措的情况。

But in the process, they also train our brains to tune out

但是在这个过程中， 它们也会训练我们的大脑，

when somebody else's issue comes up

当他人遇到问题

and when somebody else's issue needs our help and support.

需要我们帮助的和支持时， 让我们的大脑不去理会。

And they also keep us from seeing glaring connections between our issues.

它同时还妨碍了我们看到 我们的问题之间直接明显的联系。

So for instance, the people fighting poverty and inequality

例如，和贫困与不平等对抗的人

rarely talk about climate change.

很少谈及气候变化。

Even though we see time and again

即使我们一次又一次地看到，

that it's the poorest of people

最贫穷的人

who are the most vulnerable to extreme weather.

正是那些在 极端天气面前最脆弱的人。

The climate change people rarely talk about war and occupation.

谈论气候改变的人 很少谈论战争和工作。

Even though we know that the thirst for fossil fuels

即使我们知道 对化石燃料的需求

has been a major driver of conflict.

是冲突的主要根源。

The environmental movement has gotten better at pointing out

环保运动已经更好地指出了，

that the nations that are getting hit hardest by climate change

受到气候变化影响最大的国家

are populated overwhelmingly by black and brown people.

正是那些黑色人种 和棕色人种为主的国家。

But when black lives are treated as disposable

但是，当黑人的生命 在监狱、学校和大街上

in prisons, in schools and on the streets,

被视为可有可无的东西时，

these connections are too rarely made.

这些联系就很少被注意到。

The walls between our silos

树立在我们筒仓之间的高墙

also means that our solutions, when they emerge,

还意味着我们的解决方案在出现时，

are also disconnected from each other.

彼此之间也缺乏联系。

So progressives now have this long list of demands that I was mentioning earlier,

进步人士现在有一个 包含我之前提到的要求的长清单，

those "yeses."

就是那些 “是”。

But what we're still missing

但是我们还缺少

is that coherent picture of the world we're fighting for.

我们为之奋斗的世界 的连贯画面。

What it looks like, what it feels like, and most of all, what its core values are.

它看起来怎么样，感觉起来怎么样， 最重要的，它的核心价值是什么？

And that really matters.

这真的很重要。

Because when large-scale crises hit us

因为当大规模危机袭来时，

and we are confronted with the need to leap somewhere safer,

我们将会面临着飞跃去 一个更加安全的地方的需求，

there isn't any agreement on what that place is.

关于那应该是一个怎样的地方， 我们并没有达成一致。

And leaping without a destination

而没有目的地的飞跃，

looks a lot like jumping up and down.

只会看起来像上蹿下跳。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Fortunately, there are all kinds of conversations and experiments going on

幸运的是，有各种各样的对话 和实验正在进行，

to try to overcome these divisions that are holding us back.

试图克服这些 阻止我们飞跃的分歧。

And I want to finish by talking about one of them.

我想以其中一个例子 来结束我的演讲。

A couple of years ago, a group of us in Canada

几年前， 我们几个人在加拿大

decided that we were hitting the limits

认为，我们已经达到了

of what we could accomplish in our various silos.

我们在不同筒仓所能达到的极限。

So we locked ourselves in a room for two days,

所以我们把我们自己 锁在一间房间里两天，

and we tried to figure out what bound us together.

试图弄清楚是什么 将我们连接在一起。

In that room were people who rarely get face to face.

在那个房间里是一些 平时很少能面对面的人们，

There were indigenous elders with hipsters working on transit.

有土生土长的老人 和在运输业工作的嬉皮士们。

There was the head of Greenpeace

有绿色和平组织的负责人

with a union leader representing oil workers and loggers.

和代表石油工人 和伐木工人的工会领袖。

There were faith leaders and feminist icons and many more.

有宗教领袖和女权主义 的代表人物，等等。

And we gave ourselves a pretty ambitious assignment:

我们给了自己一个雄心勃勃的任务：

agreeing on a short statement describing the world after we win.

同意一个简单的声明， 描述我们胜利以后的世界，

The world after we've already made the transition to a clean economy

一个已经向清洁经济转型，

and a much fairer society.

实现了一个更公平社会的世界。

In other words,

换句话说，

instead of trying to scare people about what will happen if we don't act,

与其试图恐吓人们 如果不采取行动就会发生什么，

we decided to try to inspire them with what could happen if we did act.

我们决定尝试激励他们， 如果采取行动会发生什么。

Sensible people are always telling us

明智人士总是告诉我们，

that change needs to come in small increments.

变化需要循序渐进。

That politics is the art of the possible

政治是可能性的艺术，

and that we can't let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

我们不能让追求完美 成为“好”的敌人。

Well, we rejected all of that.

然而，我们对此嗤之以鼻。

We wrote a manifesto, and we called it "The Leap."

我们写下了一份 我们称之为“飞跃”的声明，

I have to tell you that agreeing on our common "yes"

我必须告诉各位， 在这么多不同的经历中，

across such diversity of experiences

在这么多痛苦的历史背景下，

and against a backdrop of a lot of painful history

达成我们共同的“是”

was not easy work.

不是一件容易的事。

But it was also pretty thrilling.

但是它也是非常令人兴奋的。

Because as soon as we gave ourselves permission to dream,

因为一旦我们允许自己去梦想，

那些连接我们工作的思路 就会变得不言自明。

those threads connecting much of our work became self-evident.

We realized, for instance,

我们认识到，例如，

that the bottomless quest for profits

正在强迫许多人

that is forcing so many people to work more than 50 hours a week,

在没有安全保障的情况下 每周工作超过 50 个小时，

without security,

同时加剧了这种绝望感蔓延

and that is fueling this epidemic of despair

的对利润无休止的追求，

is the same quest for bottomless profits and endless growth

同样也在追求无底的利润 和无休止的增长，

that is at the heart of our ecological crisis

这是我们的生态危机的核心，

and is destabilizing our planet.

正在破坏我们的星球。

It also became clear what we need to do.

我们需要怎么做 也变得清晰起来。

We need to create a culture of care-taking.

我们需要去创造 一种关爱文化，

In which no one and nowhere is thrown away.

其中没有任何人， 没有任何地方会被抛弃，

In which the inherent value of all people and every ecosystem is foundational.

所有人和每一额生态系统 的价值都是最基本的。

So we came up with this people's platform,

所以我们推出了这个公众平台，

and don't worry, I'm not going to read the whole thing to you out loud --

别担心，我不会 把整个内容大声读出来——

if you're interested, you can read it at theleap.org.

如果你感兴趣， 可以登陆 theleap.org。

But I will give you a taste of what we came up with.

但是我会简单介绍一下 我们的主张。

So we call for that 100 percent renewable economy in a hurry,

我们呼吁加速实现 百分百的可再生能源，

but we went further.

但是除此之外，

Calls for new kinds of trade deals,

我们也呼吁新的贸易交易，

a robust debate on a guaranteed annual income,

一个强大的关于基本年收入的辩论，

full rights for immigrant workers,

移民工人的全部权利，

getting corporate money out of politics,

从政治中取得企业资本，

free universal day care, electoral reform and more.

免费的普遍性日托， 选举改革等等。

What we discovered is that a great many of us

我们的发现是， 我们中的大部分

正在寻找行动起来更少像品牌， 更多像运动的许可。

are looking for permission to act less like brands and more like movements.

Because movements don't care about credit.

因为运动不在乎名声，

They want good ideas to spread far and wide.

他们想要的是好的想法 被广泛传播。

What I love about The Leap

关于 “飞跃”，我喜欢的是，

is that it rejects the idea that there is this hierarchy of crisis,

它不赞同危机分等级的想法，

and it doesn't ask anyone to prioritize one struggle over another

也不要求任何人把一场斗争 优先放在另一个之前

or wait their turn.

或者等着轮到他们。

And though it was birthed in Canada,

虽然它诞生在加拿大，

we've discovered that it travels well.

但是我们发现它传播得很好。

Since we launched, The Leap has been picked up around the world

自从推出， “飞跃” 已经被全世界

with similar platforms,

类似的平台所接受，

being written from Nunavut to Australia,

从加拿大的努勒维特到澳大利亚，

to Norway to the UK and the US,

挪威，英国和美国，

where it's gaining a lot of traction in cities like Los Angeles,

在美国许多地方得到了推动， 例如在洛杉矶

where it's being localized.

被成功本土化；

And also in rural communities that are traditionally very conservative,

还有传统保守的乡村，

but where politics is failing the vast majority of people.

那里的大部分人 对政治现状非常不满。

Here's what I've learned from studying shocks and disasters for two decades.

这二十年来，我从研究 震惊时间和灾难中学到：

Crises test us.

危机能够考研我们。

We either fall apart or we grow up fast.

我们要么分崩离析， 要么加快成长。

Finding new reserves of strength and capacity that we never knew we had.

发现我们从不知道的自己 所拥有的新的力量和能力储蓄。

The shocking events that fill us with dread today

如今使我们充满恐惧的震惊事件

can transform us, and they can transform the world for the better.

可以转化我们， 可以转化世界变得更好。

But first we need to picture the world that we're fighting for.

但是首先我们要描绘一个 我们为之奋斗的世界，

And we have to dream it up together.

我们必须要一起梦想。

Right now, every alarm in our house is going off simultaneously.

现在，我们家里的 每一个闹钟同时响起，

It's time to listen.

是时候聆听了。

It's time to leap.

是时候飞跃了。

谢谢。

Thank you.

（掌声）

(Applause)