How AI can enhance our memory, work and social lives | Tom Gruber

197,237 views ・ 2017-08-21

TED


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翻译人员: 易帆 余 校对人员: Lipeng Chen
00:12
I'm here to offer you a new way to think about my field,
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今天来到这里,是想邀请大家 从一个新的角度来看待我熟悉的领域:
00:16
artificial intelligence.
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人工智能。
00:18
I think the purpose of AI
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我认为人工智能的目的,
00:20
is to empower humans with machine intelligence.
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是要用机器智能 来增强人类的能力。
00:25
And as machines get smarter,
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而随着机器变得更聪明,
00:27
we get smarter.
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我们也会更聪明。
00:29
I call this "humanistic AI" --
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我称这个为“人性化 AI”——
00:32
artificial intelligence designed to meet human needs
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通过与 AI 合作并 强化人类的设计方式
00:35
by collaborating and augmenting people.
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来满足人类的需求。
00:39
Now, today I'm happy to see
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如今,我很高兴能看到
00:41
that the idea of an intelligent assistant
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智能助理的这个想法
00:44
is mainstream.
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能成为主流。
00:45
It's the well-accepted metaphor for the interface between humans and AI.
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这象征了人类与 AI 之间的互动 已被广泛接受。
00:51
And the one I helped create is called Siri.
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而其中一个我协助 创造的产品就是 Siri。
00:54
You know Siri.
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各位都认识 Siri。
00:55
Siri is the thing that knows your intent
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Siri 会知道你的意图,
00:58
and helps you do it for you,
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并协助你
01:00
helps you get things done.
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把一切搞定。
01:02
But what you might not know is that we designed Siri
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但各位可能不知道, 当初我们在设计 Siri 时,
01:05
as humanistic AI,
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就把它定位在“人性化 AI ”,
01:07
to augment people with a conversational interface
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通过对话的方式来强化人类体验,
01:10
that made it possible for them to use mobile computing,
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让使用行动计算成为可能,
01:14
regardless of who they were and their abilities.
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不论他们是谁、 能力如何,都可以使用。
01:18
Now for most of us,
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对我们大多数人而言,
01:20
the impact of this technology
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这项技术带来的影响
01:23
is to make things a little bit easier to use.
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是让东西更便于我们使用。
01:25
But for my friend Daniel,
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但对我朋友Daniel而言,
01:29
the impact of the AI in these systems is a life changer.
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这些系统中的AI功能 却改变了他的一生。
01:33
You see, Daniel is a really social guy,
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Daniel是个很爱社交的人,
01:37
and he's blind and quadriplegic,
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也是个四肢瘫痪的盲人,
01:40
which makes it hard to use those devices that we all take for granted.
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我们认为理所当然的设备, 对他来说却很难用。
01:44
The last time I was at his house, his brother said,
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上次我去他家,他哥哥说:
01:46
"Hang on a second, Daniel's not ready.
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“等等,Daniel还没准备好。
01:48
He's on the phone with a woman he met online."
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他正在和网上认识的女生打电话。”
01:52
I'm like, "That's cool, how'd he do it?"
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我说:“不错啊,他怎么办到的?”
01:54
Well, Daniel uses Siri to manage his own social life --
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事实上,Daniel用 Siri 来管理 他自己的社交生活——
01:58
his email, text and phone --
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他的电子邮件、短信、电话——
02:00
without depending on his caregivers.
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不用依赖他的照料人。
02:04
This is kind of interesting, right?
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这挺有趣的,对吧?
02:06
The irony here is great.
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不过也相当讽刺。
02:07
Here's the man whose relationship with AI
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这个人与 AI 的关系
02:10
helps him have relationships with genuine human beings.
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协助他与真正的人类建立了关系。
02:14
And this is humanistic AI.
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这就是人性化的人工智能。
02:19
Another example with life-changing consequences
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还有一个可以改变人生的例子,
02:21
is diagnosing cancer.
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也就是癌症诊断。
02:24
When a doctor suspects cancer,
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当医生怀疑你有癌症时,
02:26
they take a sample and send it to a pathologist,
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他们会先取样交给病理学家,
02:29
who looks at it under a microscope.
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病理学家再利用显微镜来看样本。
02:31
Now, pathologists look at hundreds of slides
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病理学家每天要看 数百片的载玻片
02:34
and millions of cells every day.
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及数百万个细胞。
02:37
So to support this task,
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所以为了支援这项工作,
02:38
some researchers made an AI classifier.
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有几位研究人员做出了一种 人工智能分类器。
02:43
Now, the classifier says, "Is this cancer or is this not cancer?"
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现在,分类器已经会看着图片分辨:
02:47
looking at the pictures.
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“这是不是癌症?”
02:50
The classifier was pretty good,
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分类器挺厉害的,
02:52
but not as good as the person,
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但没有人类那么厉害,
02:55
who got it right most of the time.
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人类大部分都能判读正确。
02:58
But when they combine the ability of the machine and the human together,
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但,当机器与人类的能力 结合在一起时,
03:04
accuracy went to 99.5 percent.
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正确率可以达到 99.5%。
03:08
Adding that AI to a partnership eliminated 85 percent of the errors
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加上人工智能的协作, 人类病理学家
03:13
that the human pathologist would have made working alone.
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能减少个人判断时 85% 的错误。
03:18
That's a lot of cancer that would have otherwise gone untreated.
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这其中很多的癌症患者, 当初就是因误判而耽搁了治疗。
03:22
Now, for the curious, it turns out
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人类因为好奇的原因,
03:24
that the human was better at rejecting false positives,
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比较擅长判断假阳性案例,
03:28
and the machine was better at recognizing those hard-to-spot cases.
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而机器则比较擅长判断 难以辨别的案例。
03:31
But the lesson here isn't about which agent is better
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但我们学到的并不是
谁在图像分类上比较厉害。
03:35
at this image-classification task.
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03:37
Those things are changing every day.
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那些东西每天都会变。
03:39
The lesson here
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这里我们学到的是,
03:41
is that by combining the abilities of the human and machine,
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通过结合人类与机器的能力,
03:44
it created a partnership that had superhuman performance.
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其创造出的合作关系 会有超人般的表现。
03:50
And that is humanistic AI.
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而这就是人性化的人工智能 。
03:54
Now let's look at another example
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我们再举个例子,
03:56
with turbocharging performance.
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这方面的进步也是突飞猛进。
03:58
This is design.
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那就是“设计”。
04:00
Now, let's say you're an engineer.
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假设你是个工程师,
04:02
You want to design a new frame for a drone.
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想要设计一个新的无人机骨架。
04:04
You get out your favorite software tools, CAD tools,
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你打开最爱的软件, 电脑绘图辅助工具(CAD),
04:07
and you enter the form and the materials, and then you analyze performance.
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输入了外形和材料, 然后按下分析表现。
04:11
That gives you one design.
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它只会跑出一种设计方案。
04:13
If you give those same tools to an AI,
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如果你把这些工具拿给 AI 使用,
04:17
it can generate thousands of designs.
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它会帮你跑出数千种设计。
04:22
This video by Autodesk is amazing.
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这段Autodesk 的影片非常震撼。
04:23
This is real stuff.
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这是真实案例。
04:25
So this transforms how we do design.
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这就改变了我们设计的方式。
04:29
The human engineer now
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现在,人类工程师
04:30
says what the design should achieve,
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只要说出想要实现的设计,
04:33
and the machine says,
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机器就会说:
04:34
"Here's the possibilities."
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”有这些可能性方案。”
04:37
Now in her job, the engineer's job
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现在,她作为工程师的工作,
04:40
is to pick the one that best meets the goals of the design,
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就是选出一种最符合目标的设计,
04:43
which she knows as a human better than anyone else,
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这是她身为人类最擅长的,
04:47
using human judgment and expertise.
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用的就是人类的判断和专业知识。
04:49
In this case, the winning form
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在这案例中,脱颖而出的设计
04:50
looks kind of like something nature would have designed,
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像是自然界设计出来的,
04:53
minus a few million years of evolution
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但这样的设计, 不需要几百万年的演化,
04:55
and all that unnecessary fur.
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也不需有那些皮毛。
05:00
Now let's see where this idea of humanistic AI might lead us
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我们现在来想想, 如果我们跟着人性化 AI 走,
05:04
if we follow it into the speculative beyond.
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它会把我们带到哪些 意想不到的境界?
05:07
What's a kind of augmentation that we would all like to have?
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我们想要实现哪些方面的强化?
05:11
Well, how about cognitive enhancement?
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认知强化如何?
05:15
Instead of asking,
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别再问:
05:17
"How smart can we make our machines?"
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“我们能把机器做到多聪明?”
05:19
let's ask
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而是要改问:
05:20
"How smart can our machines make us?"
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“我们的机器能把我们变得多聪明?”
05:24
I mean, take memory for example.
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举个例子,记忆。
05:27
Memory is the foundation of human intelligence.
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记忆是人类智能的基础。
05:31
But human memory is famously flawed.
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但人类的记忆力是出名的差。
05:35
We're great at telling stories,
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我们很会说故事,
05:37
but not getting the details right.
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但无法保证细节都是准确的。
05:39
And our memories -- they decay over time.
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我们的记忆——会随时间衰退。
05:42
I mean, like, where did the '60s go, and can I go there, too?
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比如,六十年代去哪了? 我也能去那儿吗?
05:45
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
05:48
But what if you could have a memory that was as good as computer memory,
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但如果你能拥有和电脑 一样好的记忆力,
05:53
and was about your life?
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而且这些记忆与你的人生有关, 那会如何呢?
05:57
What if you could remember every person you ever met,
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如果你能记得 你见过的每一个人,
06:00
how to pronounce their name,
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叫得出每一个人的名字,
06:02
their family details, their favorite sports,
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家庭状况的细节, 他们最爱的运动,
06:04
the last conversation you had with them?
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你和他们上次的对话,那会如何呢?
06:06
If you had this memory all your life,
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如果你一生都有这样的记忆,
06:09
you could have the AI look at all the interactions
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你就可以让人工智能 去看看你过去
06:12
you had with people over time
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与人们的所有互动,
06:13
and help you reflect on the long arc of your relationships.
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并协助你反思你的人际关系。
06:18
What if you could have the AI read everything you've ever read
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如果我们能让人工智能去阅读 所有你阅读过的东西,
06:23
and listen to every song you've ever heard?
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去听你听过的每首歌,会如何呢?
06:27
From the tiniest clue, it could help you retrieve
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从最微小的线索, 它就能协助你找回
06:30
anything you've ever seen or heard before.
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你以前看过或听过的任何东西。
06:33
Imagine what that would do for the ability to make new connections
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想像一下,这对于 建立新连结以及
产生新点子的能力会有什么影响。
06:37
and form new ideas.
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06:38
And what about our bodies?
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那么,我们的身体呢?
06:41
What if we could remember the consequences of every food we eat,
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如果我们能记得吃过的每样食物,
06:45
every pill we take,
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每颗药物,
06:48
every all-nighter we pull?
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记得每次熬夜的内容, 那会如何?
06:50
We could do our own science on our own data
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我们可以用自己的资料 来做自己的科学,
06:53
about what makes us feel good and stay healthy.
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找出什么会让我们 感觉很好并保持健康。
06:57
And imagine how this could revolutionize
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想像一下,这会为我们管理
06:59
the way we manage allergies and chronic disease.
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过敏及慢性病带来怎样的革命。
07:04
I believe that AI will make personal memory enhancement a reality.
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我相信,人工智能能够 实现个人记忆的强化。
07:10
I can't say when or what form factors are involved,
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我不知道何时或需要哪些机缘,
07:14
but I think it's inevitable,
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但我认为它是一定会到来的,
07:17
because the very things that make AI successful today --
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因为人工智能在当今 够成功的原因就是这些——
07:22
the availability of comprehensive data
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唾手可得的综合性数据,
07:25
and the ability for machines to make sense of that data --
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以及机器能从这些数据中 理解出意义的能力——
07:28
can be applied to the data of our lives.
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能够被应用到我们生活中的数据上。
07:32
And those data are here today, available for all of us,
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我们现今就已经能够 取得那些数据了,
07:35
because we lead digitally mediated lives,
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因为我们可以直接用手机 或上网的方式,
07:40
in mobile and online.
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将我们的生活与数字科技做连结。
07:43
In my view, a personal memory is a private memory.
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依我所见,个人的记忆 是私人的记忆。
07:47
We get to choose what is and is not recalled and retained.
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我们可以选择要或不要, 回忆或保留哪些记忆。
07:52
It's absolutely essential that this be kept very secure.
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这种安全性绝对是有必要的。
07:57
Now for most of us,
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对大部份人来说,
07:58
the impact of augmented personal memory
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增强个人记忆所产生的影响会是:
08:01
will be a more improved mental gain,
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可以获得心智上的成长,
08:04
maybe, hopefully, a bit more social grace.
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或是希望可以有更好的社交能力。
08:08
But for the millions who suffer from Alzheimer's and dementia,
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但对于数百万受阿兹海默症 及痴呆症折磨的人而言,
08:15
the difference that augmented memory could make
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增加记忆能造成的改变
08:17
is a difference between a life of isolation
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就是让那孤独的人生,
08:20
and a life of dignity and connection.
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变成有尊严, 与生活保持连接的人生。
08:23
We are in the middle of a renaissance in artificial intelligence right now.
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我们现在正处于人工智能 繁荣发展的时期当中,
08:30
I mean, in just the past few years,
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仅仅在过去几年,
08:32
we're beginning to see solutions to AI problems
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我们就开始看到 人工智能问题的解决方法,
08:36
that we have struggled with literally for decades:
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而这在过去数十年来, 一直是无法解决的问题,比如:
08:41
speech understanding, text understanding,
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口语理解,文字理解,
08:43
image understanding.
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图像理解。
08:45
We have a choice in how we use this powerful technology.
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我们可以选择要 如何使用这强大的技术。
08:51
We can choose to use AI to automate and compete with us,
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我们可以选择用人工智能 来做自动化的工作,并与我们竞争,
08:55
or we can use AI to augment and collaborate with us,
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或我们可以选择用人工智能 来做增强化的工作,并与我们合作,
08:59
to overcome our cognitive limitations
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来克服我们的认知限制,
09:03
and to help us do what we want to do,
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并协助我们去做我们想要做的事,
09:06
only better.
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而且做得更好。
09:08
And as we discover new ways to give machines intelligence,
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随着我们发掘出新的方式 来将智能赋予机器,
09:14
we can distribute that intelligence
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我们可以把那种智能移转到
09:17
to all of the AI assistants in the world,
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全世界所有的人工智能助理身上,
09:20
and therefore to every person, regardless of circumstance.
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且不论如何,都要确保 每个人都能因此受惠。
09:25
And that is why,
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那就是为什么
09:26
every time a machine gets smarter,
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每次当机器变更得聪明,
09:30
we get smarter.
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我们也会变得更睿智。
09:32
That is an AI worth spreading.
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而这就是人工智能 值得推广的原因。
09:36
Thank you.
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谢谢大家。
09:37
(Applause)
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(掌声)
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