How Africa can keep rising | Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala

翻译人员: Susannah Wang 校对人员: Moire Yim

The narrative of a rising Africa is being challenged.

这是一个正在崛起的非洲面临挑战的故事。

About 10 years ago, I spoke about an Africa,

大约在十年前，我做了一个关于非洲的演讲，

an Africa of hope and opportunity,

讲了一个充满希望和机会的非洲，

an Africa of entrepreneurs,

遍布企业家的非洲，

an Africa very different from the Africa that you normally hear about

一个与你通常所听闻的

of death, poverty and disease.

充斥着死亡、贫穷、疾病所大相径庭的非洲。

And that what I spoke about,

而我当初演讲的内容，

became part of what is known now as the narrative of the rising Africa.

成为了如今这个众所周知的故事——正在崛起的非洲的一部分。

I want to tell you two stories about this rising Africa.

我想要告诉你两个关于这个振兴中的非洲的故事。

The first has to do with Rwanda,

第一个故事与卢旺达有关，

a country that has gone through many trials and tribulations.

一个经历了很多磨难的国度。

And Rwanda has decided to become the technology hub, or a technology hub

而现在，它决定要成为一个技术中心

或者说是非洲的技术中心。

on the continent.

It's a country with mountainous and hilly terrain,

这个国家遍布山川和丘陵，

a little bit like here,

和这里有点像，

so it's very difficult to deliver services to people.

所以在这里，给人们提供服务是非常艰难的。

So what has Rwanda said?

那么卢旺达说了什么？

In order to save lives, it's going to try using drones

为了拯救生命，卢旺达将与企业Zipline、美国UPS（全球最大的包裹递送公司）

to deliver lifesaving drugs, vaccines and blood

以及Gavi（全球疫苗免疫联盟）合作

to people in hard-to-reach places

用无人机

给那些生活在交通不便地区的人们

in partnership with a company called Zipline,

with UPS, and also with the Gavi, a global vaccine alliance.

输送抢救用药、疫苗和血液。

In doing this, it will save lives.

这个举措将会拯救生命。

This is part of the type of innovation we want to see in the rising Africa.

这就是我们想要看到的，崛起中的非洲关于创新的其中一类。

The second story has to do with something

第二个故事，和那些

that I'm sure most of you have seen or will remember.

我相信你们大多数人都见过或者记得相关事情。

Very often, countries in Africa suffer drought and floods,

非洲的国家常常遭受干旱和洪涝，

and it's getting more frequent because of climate change effects.

而随着气候变化的影响，它们正发生得越发频繁。

When this happens, they normally wait for international appeals to raise money.

当灾难发生以后，这些国家通常等待国际呼吁来筹集资金。

You see pictures of children with flies on their faces,

所以你会看到苍蝇围在孩子脸上的照片，

carcasses of dead animals and so on.

死去动物尸体的照片等等。

Now these countries, 32 countries, came together

如今，这32个国家一起

under the auspices of the African Union

在非洲联盟的支持下

and decided to form an organization called the African Risk Capacity.

决意组成一个叫做“非洲风险能力机构”的组织。

What does it do?

它有什么作用呢？

It's a weather-based insurance agency,

它是一家气象保险机构，

and what these countries do is to pay insurance each year,

这些国家每年缴纳

about 3 million dollars a year of their own resources,

自身资源约300万美元的保险费，

so that in the event they have a difficult drought situation or flood,

因此，假使他们碰到了非常严重的干旱或洪涝，

this money will be paid out to them,

这些保险费就可以赔偿给他们，

which they can then use to take care of their populations,

他们也就可以用这些钱去照顾他们的人民，

instead of waiting for aid to come.

而不是等待国际援助的到来。

The African Risk Capacity last year paid 26 million dollars

去年，非洲风险能力机构赔付了2600万美元

to Mauritania, Senegal and Niger.

给毛里塔尼亚、塞内加尔和尼日尔。

This enabled them to take care of 1.3 million people affected by drought.

这使他们有能力去照顾130万被干旱影响的人。

They were able to restore livelihoods,

他们能够恢复生计，

buy fodder for cattle, feed children in school

购买喂牛的饲料，在学校里喂养孩子

and in short keep the populations home instead of migrating out of the area.

简而言之，保护了人们的家园，而不是迁出那个地区。

So these are the kinds of stories

所以，这些就是

of an Africa ready to take responsibility for itself,

非洲已经准备好承担属于它自己的责任，

and to look for solutions for its own problems.

并且为它自己的问题寻找解决之道的故事。

But that narrative is being challenged now

然而，这个故事现在遇到了挑战

because the continent has not been doing well in the last two years.

因为非洲大陆在过去两年内一直表现不佳。

It had been growing at five percent per annum

虽然在过去的十五年里

for the last one and a half decades,

它都是以每年5%的速度在增长，

but this year's forecast was three percent. Why?

但今年的预估则只有3%。为什么？

In an uncertain global environment, commodity prices have fallen.

在一个不稳定的全球环境下，商品价格下跌。

Many of the economies are still commodity driven,

许多经济体仍然依靠商品驱动，

and therefore their performance has slipped.

因此他们的表现有所下滑。

And now the issue of Brexit doesn't make it any easier.

而现在 “英国退欧”一点儿都没有让这个问题变得更加轻松。

I never knew that the Brexit could happen

我从没想过“英国退欧”的事情会发生

and that it could be one of the things that would cause global uncertainty

而这也可能成为造成全球动荡的其中一个原因

such as we have.

正如我们所面临的。

So now we've got this situation,

所以现在，我们走到了这个情况

and I think it's time to take stock

我认为这也正是时候去全面审视一番

and to say what were the things that the African countries did right?

并且来思考非洲国家做过的哪些事情是正确的？

What did they do wrong?

哪些事情是错误的？

How do we build on all of this and learn lessons

我们如何在这一切的基础上吸取教训

so that we can keep Africa rising?

从而保证非洲持续崛起？

So let me talk about six things that I think we did right.

那么让我来谈谈我认为我们做得对的六件事。

The first is managing our economies better.

第一件事，是把我们的经济管理得更好。

The '80s and '90s were the lost decades, when Africa was not doing well,

80年代和90年代是迷失的二十年，当时非洲的状况不是很好，

and some of you will remember an "Economist" cover

你们或许能想起一期《经济学人》的封面

that said, "The Lost Continent."

上面写着 “失落的大陆”。

But in the 2000s, policymakers learned

但是在21世纪，决策者明白到

that they needed to manage the macroeconomic environment better,

他们需要去更好得调控宏观经济环境，

to ensure stability,

来确保经济稳定，

keep inflation low in single digits,

抑制通货膨胀率于单位数，

keep their fiscal deficits low, below three percent of GDP,

确保财政赤字较低低于GDP（国内生产总值）的百分之三，

give investors, both domestic and foreign,

给予不论国内外的投资者稳定性保证，

some stability so they'll have confidence to invest in these economies.

这样他们才会对投资这些经济体有信心。

So that was number one.

以上是第一件事。

Two, debt.

第二件事，债务。

In 1994, the debt-to-GDP ratio of African countries was 130 percent,

在1994年，非洲国家债务对GDP的比例是130%，

and they didn't have fiscal space.

而且他们没有财政空间。

They couldn't use their resources to invest in their development

他们无法用自己的资源去投资于自己的发展

because they were paying debt.

因为他们都在偿还债务。

There may be some of you in this room who worked to support African countries

在这里也许有一部分人

为支持非洲国家的债务减免努力过。

to get debt relief.

So private creditors, multilaterals and bilaterals came together

所以个人债权人、多边与双向债权人走到了一起

and decided to do the Highly Indebted Poor Countries Initiative

决定发起“重债穷国倡议”

and give debt relief.

并且给予债务减免。

So this debt relief in 2005

因此在2005年，这项债务减免

made the debt-to-GDP ratio fall down to about 30 percent,

使（非洲国家）的债务/GDP比率下降到了30%，

and there was enough resources to try and reinvest.

这就有了足够的资源去尝试和再投资。

The third thing was loss-making enterprises.

第三件事是亏损企业。

Governments were involved in business

政府参与到了

which they had no business being in.

他们本无权参与的商业中。

And they were running businesses, they were making losses.

他们经营着企业，造成了亏损。

So some of these enterprises were restructured,

所以其中一些企业被重组，

commercialized, privatized or closed,

商业化、私有化或者关闭，

and they became less of a burden on government.

于是，他们让政府的负担减轻了。

The fourth thing was a very interesting thing.

第四件事则非常有趣。

The telecoms revolution came,

电信革命来了，

and African countries jumped on it.

非洲国家抓住了这个机会。

In 2000, we had 11 million phone lines.

在2000年，我们已经拥有了1100万根电线。

Today, we have about 687 million mobile lines on the continent.

到了今天 我们在这片大陆上大概建造了6.87亿电线。

And this has enabled us

这使得我们

to go, move forward with some mobile technology

能够在某些非洲正领先的方面

where Africa is actually leading.

去推进一些移动技术。

In Kenya, the development of mobile money --

在肯尼亚，你们都听说过的移动支付——M-Pesa

M-Pesa, which all of you have heard about --

正风靡全国。

it took some time for the world to notice that Africa was ahead

世界花了一点时间才注意到

非洲在这项特殊技术上是领先的。

in this particular technology.

And this mobile money is also providing a platform

这项移动支付技术

也为获取替代能源提供了一个平台。

for access to alternative energy.

You know, people who can now pay for solar

人们现在可以像支付电话费一样

the same way they pay for cards for their telephone.

支付太阳能费用。

So this was a very good development, something that went right.

所以这是个非常好的发展，方向是正确的。

We also invested more in education and health, not enough,

同样地，我们投资了更多在教育和医疗卫生上，虽然还不够，

but there were some improvements.

但也有了一些改进。

250 million children were immunized in the last one and a half decades.

在过去的十五年里有2500万个儿童得以打了疫苗。

The other thing was that conflicts decreased.

另一件事是，冲突减少了。

There were many conflicts on the continent.

在这片土地上有很多很多的矛盾。

Many of you are aware of that.

有许多是你们已经知道的。

But they came down, and our leaders even managed to dampen some coups.

但是这些矛盾已经缓和了，我们的领导人们甚至设法在抑制一些政变。

New types of conflicts have emerged, and I'll refer to those later.

新型的矛盾产生了，这个我会在之后讲。

So based on all this, there's also some differentiation on the continent

基于上述所有，我也希望你们了解到

在这片非洲大陆上还存在着一些不同，

that I want you to know about,

because even as the doom and gloom is here,

因为即使这里充满了悲伤和灾难，

there are some countries -- Côte d'Ivoire, Kenya, Ethiopia,

仍然有一些国家， 例如科特迪瓦、肯尼亚、埃塞俄比亚、坦桑尼亚和塞内加尔，

Tanzania and Senegal are performing relatively well at the moment.

发展得相对的不错。

But what did we do wrong?

那我们又做错了什么呢？

Let me mention eight things.

我来提提八件事。

You have to have more things wrong than right.

你总是必须错的比对的多。

(Laughter)

（笑）

So there are eight things we did wrong.

这里有八件事是我们做错了的

The first was that even though we grew, we didn't create enough jobs.

一，虽然我们进步， 我们却没有创造足够的就业岗位。

We didn't create jobs for our youth.

我们没有为我们的年轻人创造就业岗位。

Youth unemployment on the continent is about 15 percent,

在非洲，失业青年大概占15%，

and underemployment is a serious problem.

而就业不足是一个非常严重的问题。

The second thing that we did is that the quality of growth was not good enough.

二，发展质量不高。

Even those jobs we created were low-productivity jobs,

就连那些我们已经创造了的就业岗位，也只是低生产率岗位，

so we moved people from low-productivity agriculture

因此我们只是把人们从低生产率的农业

to low-productivity commerce and working in the informal sector

转移到了低生产率的商业

in the urban areas.

而且还是在城市的非正式部门工作。

The third thing is that inequality increased.

三，贫富悬殊差距扩大。

So we created more billionaires.

我们造就了更多亿万富翁。

50 billionaires worth 96 billion dollars

50个亿万富翁 身价960亿美元

own more wealth than the bottom 75 million people on the continent.

拥有比这个大陆上7500万底层人民更多的财富。

Poverty,

贫困，

the proportion of people in poverty -- that's the fourth thing -- did decrease,

贫困人口比例——这是我要说的第四件事——确实下降了，

but the absolute numbers did not because of population growth.

但是因为人口增长，实际人数并没有降低。

And population growth is something

人口增长是一个

that we don't have enough of a dialogue about on the continent.

在非洲大陆上还没有好好讨论过的话题。

And I think we will need to get a handle on it,

而我认为我们有需要去解决这个问题，

particularly how we educate girls.

尤其是我们如何教育女孩子们。

那才是真正解决这个特殊问题的方法。

That is the road to really working on this particular issue.

The fifth thing is that we didn't invest enough in infrastructure.

五，基础设施投入不足。

We had investment from the Chinese.

我们从中国那里获得了资助。

That helped some countries, but it's not enough.

这帮助了部分国家，可却远远不够。

The consumption of electricity in Africa on the continent

在非洲的撒哈拉以南地区

in Sub-Saharan Africa is equivalent to Spain.

耗电量相当于西班牙。

The total consumption is equivalent to that of Spain.

整体的耗电量相当于西班牙。

So many people are living in the dark,

这意味着很多人生活在黑暗中，

and as the President of the African Development Bank said recently,

就如非洲发展银行行长最近说的，

Africa cannot develop in the dark.

“非洲不能在黑暗中前行”。

The other thing we have not done

还有一件事我们没完成

is that our economies retain the same structure

就是我们始终维持着

和数十年前一样的经济结构。

that we've had for decades.

So even though we've been growing,

即使我们一直在发展，

the structure of the economies has not changed very much.

经济的机构并没有什么改变。

We are still exporting commodities,

我们仍然出口商品，

and exporting commodities is what? It's exporting jobs.

而出口商业等于什么？ 等于出口就业岗位。

Our manufacturing value-added is only 11 percent.

我们的制造业只增值了11%。

We are not creating enough decent manufacturing jobs for our youth,

我们没有创造够多的不错的制造业岗位给我们的年轻人，

and trade among ourselves is low.

而且我们自己间的贸易也很少。

Only about 12 percent of our trade is among ourselves.

只有12%的贸易是在我们各国之间的。

So that's another serious problem.

这就是另一个严峻的难题。

Then governance.

接着来谈谈管理体制。

Governance is a serious issue.

管理体制是一个严重的问题。

We have weak institutions,

我们有一些弱势的机构

and sometimes nonexistent institutions, and I think this gives way for corruption.

有时候甚至缺乏了一些机构，在我看来这就给了腐败可趁之机。

Corruption is an issue that we have not yet gotten a good enough handle on,

腐败是一个我们至今没有很好去处理的问题，

and we have to fight tooth and nail,

而我们必须尽一切所能去解决它，

that and increased transparency in the way we manage our economies

透过增加我们管理经济的方式的透明度

and the way we manage our finances.

和管理我们的金融。

We also need to be wary of new conflicts,

我们同样需要警惕那些新的矛盾，

new types of conflicts,

新型的冲突，

such as we have with Boko Haram in my country, Nigeria,

比如在我的国家尼日利亚，我们和博科圣地的冲突，

and with Al-Shabaab in Kenya.

以及在肯尼亚和索马里青年党的冲突。

We need to partner with international partners,

我们有必要与国际合作伙伴、发达国家，

developed countries, to fight this together.

共同打击这些势力。

Otherwise, we create a new reality

否则，我们只会建立一个全新的

which is not the type we want for a rising Africa.

却并不是我们所想要的进步的非洲。

And finally, the issue of education.

那么最后，是教育的问题。

Our education systems in many countries are broken.

我们许多国家的教育系统已经崩坏了。

We are not creating the types of skills needed for the future.

我们未能创造未来所有需要的技能类型。

So we have to find a way to educate better.

所以我们必须找到一个更好的教育方式。

So those are the things that we are not doing right.

而这些，就是我们做得不对的地方。

Now, where do we go from there?

现在，我们该走向何方？

I believe that the way forward is to learn to manage success.

我相信前进的道路就是学会管理成功。

Very often, when people succeed or countries succeed,

当一个人成功了，或一个国家成功以后，

they forget what made them succeed.

他们往往会忘记是什么导致他们成功的。

Learning what you're successful at,

了解到自己成功的原因是什么，

managing it and keeping it is vital for us.

管理它并保持住 ，这对我们来说是至关重要的。

So all those things I said we did right,

所以那些我说过我们做得对的事情，

we have to learn to do it right again, keep doing it right.

我们需要学会再做对一次，坚持正确地去作为。

Managing the economy while creating stability is vital,

把经济管理好，同时建立稳定性 ，这些都是非常重要的，

getting prices right, and policy consistency.

调控合适的价格和保证政策一致性。

Very often, we are not consistent.

我们总是前后不一致。

One regime goes out, another comes in

一个政权走了， 另一个政权来了

and they throw away even the functioning policies that were there before.

然后他们就把就算很早之前就在那儿的运行政策都扔掉了。

What does this do?

这样会导致什么？

It creates uncertainty for people, for households,

这样会给人民、家庭、商业，

uncertainties for business.

都造成不确定性。

They don't know whether and how to invest.

他们不知道什么时候、怎么样去投资。

Debt: we must manage the success we had in reducing our debt,

债务上，我们一定要管理好 我们在减轻债务上的成功，

but now countries are back to borrowing again,

但是现在很多国家又开始借钱了，

and we see our debt-to-GDP ratio beginning to creep up,

我们看到我们的债务/GDP比率又开始逐渐上涨，

and in certain countries,

在某些国家，

debt is becoming a problem, so we have to avoid that.

债务正演变成一个问题，因此我们必须避免这件事发生。

So managing success.

所以要管理成功。

The next thing is focusing with a laser beam

下一个事情是

on those things we did not do well.

专注到那些我们做得不对的事情上。

First and foremost is infrastructure.

首先是基础设施。

Yes, most countries now recognize they have to invest in this,

是的，大多数国家现在意识到了他们应该投资基础设施，

and they are trying to do the best they can to do that.

他们也在试图尽最大可能去做到最好。

We must.

我们一定要做到最好。

The most important thing is power.

最重要的是电力。

You cannot develop in the dark.

你不能在黑暗中前行。

And then governance and corruption:

接着，管理体制和腐败。

we have to fight.

我们要与之搏斗。

We have to make our countries transparent.

我们要让我们的国家公开透明。

And above all, we have to engage our young people.

尤其是，我们需要聘用我们的年轻人

We have genius in our young people.

我们的年轻人拥有天赋。

I see it every day.

我每天都看得到。

It's what makes me wake up in the morning and feel ready to go.

这就是每天早上叫醒我并且让我整装待发的东西。

We have to unleash the genius of our young people,

我们必须解开我们的年轻人身上天赋的枷锁，

get out of their way, support them to create and innovate

为他们让路，支持他们去创造和革新

and lead the way.

并且引领他们的方向。

And I know that they will lead us in the right direction.

而我深知他们将会带领我们走向正确的方向。

And our women, and our girls:

还有我们的妇女和女孩儿们：

we have to recognize that girls and women are a gift.

我们得意识到女孩儿和妇女是一个礼物。

They have strength,

他们有优势，

and we have to unleash that strength

而我们则需要去充分发挥这种优势

so that they can contribute to the continent.

这样他们才可以为非洲大陆做出贡献。

I strongly believe that when we do all of these things,

我坚信当我们做好了所有这些事，

we find that the rising Africa narrative

我们会发现那个崛起的非洲的故事

is not a fluke.

不是一个偶然。

It's a trend.

而是一个趋势。

It's a trend, and if we continue, if we unleash our youth,

这是一个趋势，假如我们坚持，假如我们解放我们的青年

if we unleash our women,

假如我们解放我们的妇女，

we may step backwards sometimes,

我们也许偶尔会退步，

we may even step sideways,

我们也许甚至会走偏了一步，

but the trend is clear.

但这个趋势已非常明了。

Africa will continue to rise.

非洲将会继续崛起

And I tell you businesspeople in the audience,

我告诉你，观众中的商人们，

investment in Africa is not for today, is not for tomorrow,

对非洲的投资不是为了当下，也不是为了明天，

it's not a short-term thing, it's a longer term thing.

这不是一个短期的，而是一个更长远的事情。

But if you are not invested in Africa,

但如果你不向非洲投资，

then you will be missing

那么你将会错过

one of the most important emerging opportunities in the world.

世界上最重要的新兴机遇之一。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）

Kelly Stoetzel: So you mentioned corruption in your talk,

你在你的演讲中提到了腐败，

and you're known, well-known as a strong anticorruption fighter.

而你作为一个反腐败人士是非常知名的。

But that's had consequences.

但这对你是有很大影响的。

People have fought back, and your mother was kidnapped.

那些人反击， 你的母亲遭到绑架。

How have you been handling this?

你是如何应对这些的？

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala: It's been very difficult.

那是一段非常艰难的时期。

谢谢你提到了绑架我母亲的问题。

Thank you for mentioning the issue of the kidnap of my mother.

It's a very difficult subject.

这是一个很艰难的话题。

But what it means is that when you fight corruption,

但这也正说明当你与腐败斗争时，

when you touch the pockets of people who are stealing money,

当你摸到了那些偷钱人的口袋时，

they don't just keep quiet.

他们不会只是保持沉默。

They fight back, and the issue for you is when they try to intimidate you,

他们会反抗，而你得思考，当他们试图恐吓你，

do you give up, or do you fight on?

你会放弃吗？还是你会继续战斗？

Do you find a way to stay on and fight back?

你找到一个方法坚持不懈且反击吗？

And the answer that I had with the teams I worked with

而我与我的工作团队的答案是

is we have to fight on.

我们必须继续抗争。

We have to create those institutions.

我们必须去建立那些机构。

We have to find ways to stop these people

我们得找到方法

来阻止那些人夺走属于未来的遗产。

from taking away the heritage of the future.

And so that's what we did.

这就是我们所做的。

And even out of government, we continued to make that point.

即使脱离政府，我们仍保持这个观点。

In our countries, nobody, nobody is going to fight corruption

在我们的国家，没有人会为了我们与腐败斗争

for us but us.

除了我们自己。

And therefore, that comes with consequences,

因此，伴随着一定的后果

and we just have to do the best we can.

我们只需要尽我们所能做到最好。

But I thank you and thank TED for giving us a voice

但我非常感谢你非常感谢TED 给我们机会向那些人发声

to say to those people, you will not win,

你们不会胜利的，

and we will not be intimidated.

我们也不怕恐吓！

Thank you.

谢谢

(Applause)

（掌声）。

Kelly Stoetzel: Thank you so much for your great talk and important work.

非常感谢你精彩的演讲和做出的重要努力。

(Applause)

（掌声）