How Africa can keep rising | Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala

譯者: Nan Liu 審譯者: SF Huang

The narrative of a rising Africa is being challenged.

崛起中的非洲， 這個說法正面臨著考驗。

About 10 years ago, I spoke about an Africa,

大約 10 年前，我談到非洲，

an Africa of hope and opportunity,

一個充滿希望和機會的非洲，

an Africa of entrepreneurs,

一個企業家遍佈的非洲，

an Africa very different from the Africa that you normally hear about

一個與你們通常聽到 充斥著死亡、貧窮和疾病，

of death, poverty and disease.

所截然不同的非洲。

And that what I spoke about,

當時我所講述的內容，

became part of what is known now as the narrative of the rising Africa.

成了當今崛起中非洲的 故事的一部分。

I want to tell you two stories about this rising Africa.

我想給你們講兩個關於 崛起中的非洲的故事。

The first has to do with Rwanda,

第一個和盧安達有關，

a country that has gone through many trials and tribulations.

一個經歷了許多考驗和苦難的國家。

And Rwanda has decided to become the technology hub, or a technology hub

盧安達決定成為科技的樞紐，

或者說是成為非洲大陸的科技樞紐。

on the continent.

It's a country with mountainous and hilly terrain,

盧安達是一個多山、多丘陵的地方，

a little bit like here,

有一點兒像這裡，

so it's very difficult to deliver services to people.

所以，要給民眾提供服務特別困難。

So what has Rwanda said?

那麼盧安達說了什麼呢？

In order to save lives, it's going to try using drones

為了挽救生命，盧安達將使用無人機

to deliver lifesaving drugs, vaccines and blood

把救命藥品、疫苗和血液，

to people in hard-to-reach places

空運給住在偏遠地區的人們，

in partnership with a company called Zipline,

同時與 Zipline 公司，

with UPS, and also with the Gavi, a global vaccine alliance.

UPS 快遞，和 Gavi 全球疫苗聯盟合作，

In doing this, it will save lives.

藉此挽救生命。

This is part of the type of innovation we want to see in the rising Africa.

這是我們想要在崛起中的非洲， 所見到的一種創新形式。

The second story has to do with something

第二個故事，

that I'm sure most of you have seen or will remember.

我確信你們大多數人 都見過或記得的事。

Very often, countries in Africa suffer drought and floods,

非洲國家經常遭遇旱災和水災，

and it's getting more frequent because of climate change effects.

而且因為氣候變化的影響， 它們發生的頻率越來越高。

When this happens, they normally wait for international appeals to raise money.

當災害發生時，它們通常 等待國際呼籲來籌錢。

You see pictures of children with flies on their faces,

你們見過蒼蠅在孩子臉上的照片，

carcasses of dead animals and so on.

動物屍體的照片等。

Now these countries, 32 countries, came together

現在這 32 個國家，

under the auspices of the African Union

在非洲聯盟的幫助下，團結在一起，

and decided to form an organization called the African Risk Capacity.

並且成立一個叫 「非洲風險承保能量」的組織。

What does it do?

這個組織是做什麼的呢？

It's a weather-based insurance agency,

它是一個以天氣風險 為根據的保險機構，

and what these countries do is to pay insurance each year,

這些國家要做的就是 每年支付保險費，

about 3 million dollars a year of their own resources,

每年各自支付大約 300 萬美元，

so that in the event they have a difficult drought situation or flood,

當它們遇到嚴重的水、旱災時，

this money will be paid out to them,

即可獲得理賠。

which they can then use to take care of their populations,

它們可以用這筆錢來照顧人民，

instead of waiting for aid to come.

而不是等待救援。

The African Risk Capacity last year paid 26 million dollars

「非洲風險承保能量」組織， 去年支付了 2,600 萬美元

to Mauritania, Senegal and Niger.

給茅利塔尼亞、塞內加爾和尼日。

This enabled them to take care of 1.3 million people affected by drought.

幫助了受旱災影響的 130 萬人。

They were able to restore livelihoods,

使他們可以重建生計，

buy fodder for cattle, feed children in school

給牛買飼料，養活上學的孩子，

and in short keep the populations home instead of migrating out of the area.

總之，讓人們能夠留守家園， 而非迫遷他方。

So these are the kinds of stories

這些就是關於非洲

of an Africa ready to take responsibility for itself,

已經可以為自己負責，

and to look for solutions for its own problems.

並為自己的問題尋求 解決辦法的故事。

But that narrative is being challenged now

但是，那種說法現在面臨考驗。

because the continent has not been doing well in the last two years.

因為，非洲大陸在過去的 兩年裡並沒有出色的表現。

It had been growing at five percent per annum

雖然在過去的 15 年裡，

for the last one and a half decades,

它的經濟是以每年 5% 在增長。

but this year's forecast was three percent. Why?

但是，今年的預測只有 3%。

In an uncertain global environment, commodity prices have fallen.

為什麼呢？

在不穩定的全球環境下， 大宗商品價格下跌。

Many of the economies are still commodity driven,

很多經濟體仍然靠大宗商品驅動，

and therefore their performance has slipped.

所以它們的表現變差。

And now the issue of Brexit doesn't make it any easier.

現在「英國脫歐」的問題， 沒有讓事情變得更輕鬆。

I never knew that the Brexit could happen

我從不知道 「英國脫歐」真的會發生，

and that it could be one of the things that would cause global uncertainty

也不知道這會成為引起全球 不穩定的事件之一。

such as we have.

正如我們一樣。

So now we've got this situation,

身處在這樣的環境中，

and I think it's time to take stock

我認為是該做全面分析的時候了，

and to say what were the things that the African countries did right?

並談談哪些是非洲國家 做對了的事情?

What did they do wrong?

哪些是做錯了的？

How do we build on all of this and learn lessons

我們如何吸取成功的經驗 並記取失敗的教訓，

so that we can keep Africa rising?

讓非洲繼續地崛起呢？

So let me talk about six things that I think we did right.

那麼讓我來說說，我認為 我們做對了的六件事。

The first is managing our economies better.

第一件是我們把經濟管理得更好。

The '80s and '90s were the lost decades, when Africa was not doing well,

80 年代和 90 年代是迷失的年代， 當時非洲的狀況並不好，

and some of you will remember an "Economist" cover

你們有些人會想起 《經濟學人》的封面

that said, "The Lost Continent."

寫著《失落的大陸》。

But in the 2000s, policymakers learned

但是在 21 世紀的時候， 政策制定者意識到

that they needed to manage the macroeconomic environment better,

他們需要把宏觀經濟環境 管理得更好，

to ensure stability,

以確保社會經濟的安定；

keep inflation low in single digits,

將通貨膨脹率維持在個位數的低點；

keep their fiscal deficits low, below three percent of GDP,

保持較低的財政赤字， 低於國內生產毛額的 3% 以下；

give investors, both domestic and foreign,

提供國內、外的投資者

some stability so they'll have confidence to invest in these economies.

穩定的投資環境， 使他們有信心來投資這些經濟體。

So that was number one.

這就是第一件。

Two, debt.

第二件，債務。

In 1994, the debt-to-GDP ratio of African countries was 130 percent,

1994 年，非洲國家債務占 國內生產毛額的比例達到 130%，

and they didn't have fiscal space.

它們沒有財政空間。

They couldn't use their resources to invest in their development

它們不能用自有的資源 來投資所需的發展，

because they were paying debt.

因為它們要還債。

There may be some of you in this room who worked to support African countries

在座的一些人， 可能曾為支持非洲國家

to get debt relief.

得到債務免除而努力過。

So private creditors, multilaterals and bilaterals came together

私人債權人、多邊和雙邊債權人，

and decided to do the Highly Indebted Poor Countries Initiative

共聚一起決定執行 「重債窮國倡議」，

and give debt relief.

給予非洲債務免除。

So this debt relief in 2005

因此，2005 年的債務免除，

made the debt-to-GDP ratio fall down to about 30 percent,

使債務占國內生產毛額的比例 降到 30％ 左右，

and there was enough resources to try and reinvest.

讓這些國家有足夠的資源 來嘗試與再投資。

The third thing was loss-making enterprises.

第三件，虧損的企業。

Governments were involved in business

政府參與了

which they had no business being in.

與它們無關的生意。

And they were running businesses, they were making losses.

它們經營生意，造成了虧損。

So some of these enterprises were restructured,

這些企業，有些經由重組、

commercialized, privatized or closed,

商業化、私有化或者是關閉，

and they became less of a burden on government.

而減輕了政府的負擔。

The fourth thing was a very interesting thing.

第四件事，是一件很有趣的事。

The telecoms revolution came,

電信革命到來，

and African countries jumped on it.

非洲國家參與其中。

In 2000, we had 11 million phone lines.

2000 年，我們有 1,100 萬條電話線。

Today, we have about 687 million mobile lines on the continent.

現在，在非洲我們有 6 億 8,700 萬條行動電話線。

And this has enabled us

這使我們可以在

to go, move forward with some mobile technology

一些非洲已領先的電信科技上，

where Africa is actually leading.

持續向前邁進與發展。

In Kenya, the development of mobile money --

在肯亞，行動支付的發展──

M-Pesa, which all of you have heard about --

M-Pesa，你們都聽過的──

it took some time for the world to notice that Africa was ahead

經過一段時間，世界才注意到

in this particular technology.

非洲在這項科技上已經領先。

And this mobile money is also providing a platform

這個行動支付也為了

for access to alternative energy.

使用替代能源提供了一個平台。

You know, people who can now pay for solar

要知道，人們現在可以 用支付電話費的方式，

the same way they pay for cards for their telephone.

來支付太陽能的費用。

So this was a very good development, something that went right.

所以這是一個非常好的發展， 朝正軌發展的好事。

We also invested more in education and health, not enough,

我們也在教育和醫療保健上 投資了更多，

雖然還不夠，但是有進步了些。

but there were some improvements.

250 million children were immunized in the last one and a half decades.

2 億 5,000 萬兒童 在過去 15 年內接種了疫苗。

The other thing was that conflicts decreased.

另一件事是衝突減少了。

There were many conflicts on the continent.

非洲有很多衝突。

Many of you are aware of that.

你們很多人都知道。

But they came down, and our leaders even managed to dampen some coups.

但是衝突減弱了，我們的領袖 甚至能設法抑制政變。

New types of conflicts have emerged, and I'll refer to those later.

新形式的衝突出現了， 我稍後會提及。

So based on all this, there's also some differentiation on the continent

基於上述，我也想讓你們了解，

非洲大陸上的一些分歧與差異。

that I want you to know about,

because even as the doom and gloom is here,

因為儘管前景看似不樂觀，

there are some countries -- Côte d'Ivoire, Kenya, Ethiopia,

一些國家，如 : 象牙海岸、 肯亞、衣索比亞、

Tanzania and Senegal are performing relatively well at the moment.

坦尚尼亞和塞內加爾， 目前發展相對較好。

But what did we do wrong?

但是，我們做錯了什麼呢？

Let me mention eight things.

請讓我提及八件事情。

You have to have more things wrong than right.

你做錯的事情一定 比做對的事情還多。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

So there are eight things we did wrong.

我們有八件事情做錯了。

The first was that even though we grew, we didn't create enough jobs.

第一件是儘管我們經濟成長， 但是，我們沒有創造足夠的工作，

We didn't create jobs for our youth.

我們沒有為年輕人創造就業機會。

Youth unemployment on the continent is about 15 percent,

非洲大陸青年的 失業率大概是 15%，

and underemployment is a serious problem.

而且低度就業是一個嚴重的問題。

The second thing that we did is that the quality of growth was not good enough.

第二件錯事是 經濟發展的品質不夠好。

Even those jobs we created were low-productivity jobs,

就連那些我們創造的工作， 也是低生產力的工作，

so we moved people from low-productivity agriculture

我們只是把勞動力從 低生產力的農業

to low-productivity commerce and working in the informal sector

轉移到低生產力的商業，

並讓他們在城市的非正式經濟工作。

in the urban areas.

The third thing is that inequality increased.

第三件事是 貧富不均的差距擴大了。

So we created more billionaires.

我們創造了更多的億萬富翁。

50 billionaires worth 96 billion dollars

50 位身價 960 億美元的億萬富翁，

own more wealth than the bottom 75 million people on the continent.

擁有的財富多過 非洲底層的 7,500 萬人。

Poverty,

貧困，

the proportion of people in poverty -- that's the fourth thing -- did decrease,

貧困人口的比例── 這是第四件事──的確減少了，

but the absolute numbers did not because of population growth.

但是因為人口增長， 貧困人口的絕對人數並無減少。

And population growth is something

人口增長，

that we don't have enough of a dialogue about on the continent.

在非洲是一個尚未 充分獲得關注與討論的議題。

And I think we will need to get a handle on it,

我認為我們需要解決此問題，

particularly how we educate girls.

尤其是要教育女孩們。

That is the road to really working on this particular issue.

那才是真正解決這個問題的方式。

The fifth thing is that we didn't invest enough in infrastructure.

第五件事是我們在基礎建設上， 沒有投入足夠的資金。

We had investment from the Chinese.

我們有來自中國的投資。

That helped some countries, but it's not enough.

那幫助了一些國家，但是遠遠不夠。

The consumption of electricity in Africa on the continent

撒哈拉沙漠以南的非洲國家，

in Sub-Saharan Africa is equivalent to Spain.

其用電量相當於西班牙的用電量。

The total consumption is equivalent to that of Spain.

這麼多國家的用電量加總， 才等於一個西班牙的總用電量。

So many people are living in the dark,

所以很多人生活在黑暗中，

and as the President of the African Development Bank said recently,

正如非洲開發銀行總裁最近所說，

Africa cannot develop in the dark.

非洲不能在黑暗中發展。

The other thing we have not done

另一件我們沒做的事情，

is that our economies retain the same structure

是我們的經濟結構，

依舊維持著數十年以前的構架。

that we've had for decades.

So even though we've been growing,

所以即使我們的經濟成長，

the structure of the economies has not changed very much.

但經濟結構並沒有很大的改變。

We are still exporting commodities,

我們依然出口大宗商品，

and exporting commodities is what? It's exporting jobs.

出口大宗商品意味著什麼？ 意味著出口了工作機會。

Our manufacturing value-added is only 11 percent.

我們製造業只增值了 11%。

We are not creating enough decent manufacturing jobs for our youth,

我們沒有為年輕人創造 像樣的製造業工作，

and trade among ourselves is low.

我們之間的貿易量很小，

Only about 12 percent of our trade is among ourselves.

在我們國家間 進行的貿易只佔 12%。

So that's another serious problem.

所以那是另一個嚴重的問題。

Then governance.

然後是管理。

Governance is a serious issue.

管理是一個嚴重的問題。

We have weak institutions,

我們的制度很脆弱，

and sometimes nonexistent institutions, and I think this gives way for corruption.

有時候制度根本就不存在， 我認為這讓貪腐滋生。

Corruption is an issue that we have not yet gotten a good enough handle on,

貪腐是我們至今未能得到 有效控制的問題，

and we have to fight tooth and nail,

我們必須抗爭到底，

that and increased transparency in the way we manage our economies

增加我們管理經濟的透明度，

and the way we manage our finances.

管理金融財務的透明度。

We also need to be wary of new conflicts,

我們也需要警惕新的衝突，

new types of conflicts,

新形式的衝突，

such as we have with Boko Haram in my country, Nigeria,

比如在我的國家奈及利亞境內， 有博科聖地的恐攻衝突，

and with Al-Shabaab in Kenya.

在肯亞境內有青年黨的恐攻衝突。

We need to partner with international partners,

我們需要和國際夥伴、

developed countries, to fight this together.

已開發國家合作，共同對抗新衝突。

Otherwise, we create a new reality

否則，我們會製造一個

which is not the type we want for a rising Africa.

我們不想讓崛起中的非洲， 所面臨的新現實情勢。

And finally, the issue of education.

最後，是教育的問題。

Our education systems in many countries are broken.

我們許多國家的教育體系出了問題。

We are not creating the types of skills needed for the future.

我們沒有創造因應未來所需的技能。

So we have to find a way to educate better.

所以，我們必須找到 優化教育的方式。

So those are the things that we are not doing right.

那些就是我們做不對的事情。

Now, where do we go from there?

現在，我們要何去何從？

I believe that the way forward is to learn to manage success.

我相信向前邁進的方法 就是要學會管理成功。

Very often, when people succeed or countries succeed,

通常，當人們或國家成功的時候，

they forget what made them succeed.

他們會忘記是什麼讓他們成功。

Learning what you're successful at,

了解你的成功之因，

managing it and keeping it is vital for us.

管理它並保持住， 對我們來說至關重要。

So all those things I said we did right,

所以，所有我說過的 我們做對了的事情，

we have to learn to do it right again, keep doing it right.

我們必須學會再次做對，一直做對。

Managing the economy while creating stability is vital,

管理好經濟，創造穩定性很重要，

getting prices right, and policy consistency.

保持價格正確，政策一致。

Very often, we are not consistent.

通常，我們的政策沒有連貫一致。

One regime goes out, another comes in

舊政權結束，而新政權

and they throw away even the functioning policies that were there before.

他們棄置原本就在運作的政策。

What does this do?

這個會造成什麼影響？

It creates uncertainty for people, for households,

造成人們、家庭的不穩定，

uncertainties for business.

造成商業的不穩定。

They don't know whether and how to invest.

他們不知道是否該投資 以及如何投資。

Debt: we must manage the success we had in reducing our debt,

債務：我們必須掌管好 我們在減少債務方面的成就，

but now countries are back to borrowing again,

但是，現在國家又開始借貸，

and we see our debt-to-GDP ratio beginning to creep up,

我們見到債務占國內生產毛額的 比例開始逐漸上升，

and in certain countries,

而且在一些國家，

debt is becoming a problem, so we have to avoid that.

債務成為一個問題， 所以我們必須避免那種情況。

So managing success.

所以要管理好成功。

The next thing is focusing with a laser beam

下一件事是專注於

on those things we did not do well.

那些我們沒做好的事情上。

First and foremost is infrastructure.

最重要的是基礎建設。

Yes, most countries now recognize they have to invest in this,

是的，大多數國家現在意識到 他們必須投資基礎建設，

and they are trying to do the best they can to do that.

他們正盡最大的努力去完成這件事。

We must.

我們必須這樣做。

The most important thing is power.

最重要的事情是電力。

You cannot develop in the dark.

我們不能在黑暗中發展。

And then governance and corruption:

然後是管理和貪腐：

we have to fight.

我們必須戰鬥到底。

We have to make our countries transparent.

我們必須讓我們的國家透明化。

And above all, we have to engage our young people.

最重要的是，我們必須 讓年輕人參與。

We have genius in our young people.

我們的年輕人有才能，

I see it every day.

我每天都可以見到。

It's what makes me wake up in the morning and feel ready to go.

它就是每天早上讓我醒來 並蓄勢待發的動力。

We have to unleash the genius of our young people,

我們必須釋放年輕人的才能，

get out of their way, support them to create and innovate

讓他們走出自己的路，

支持他們創造、革新 並引領未來的道路。

and lead the way.

And I know that they will lead us in the right direction.

我知道他們會帶我們 朝正確的方向走去。

And our women, and our girls:

我們的女性，我們的女孩們：

we have to recognize that girls and women are a gift.

我們必須意識到女孩們 和女性是一份禮物。

They have strength,

她們有力量，

and we have to unleash that strength

我們必須釋放出那股力量

so that they can contribute to the continent.

以便她們能夠為這個大陸 貢獻一己之力。

I strongly believe that when we do all of these things,

我堅信當我們做到所有這些事情後，

we find that the rising Africa narrative

我們會發現崛起中的非洲這個說法，

is not a fluke.

不是一種僥倖，

It's a trend.

而是一種趨勢。

It's a trend, and if we continue, if we unleash our youth,

它是一種趨勢，如果我們持續不懈， 如果我們解除年輕人的束縛，

if we unleash our women,

如果我們解除女性的束縛，

we may step backwards sometimes,

我們有時可能會倒退，

we may even step sideways,

我們甚至可能走偏。

but the trend is clear.

但是趨勢是清晰的。

Africa will continue to rise.

非洲將會繼續崛起。

And I tell you businesspeople in the audience,

讓我告訴在座的實業家們，

investment in Africa is not for today, is not for tomorrow,

投資非洲不是為了今天， 不是為了明天，

it's not a short-term thing, it's a longer term thing.

它不是短期的事情， 它是更長遠的事情。

But if you are not invested in Africa,

但是，如果你們不投資非洲，

then you will be missing

你們將錯過

one of the most important emerging opportunities in the world.

世界上正出現的最重要的機會之一。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Kelly Stoetzel: So you mentioned corruption in your talk,

凱莉 · 史托澤爾： 妳在演講中提到貪腐，

and you're known, well-known as a strong anticorruption fighter.

而且妳是非常著名的反貪腐鬥士。

But that's had consequences.

但是，妳承擔了後果。

People have fought back, and your mother was kidnapped.

那些人反擊，而且綁架了妳母親。

How have you been handling this?

妳是如何處理這種情況的呢？

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala: It's been very difficult.

恩戈奇 · 奧孔喬 · 伊維拉： 那很困難。

Thank you for mentioning the issue of the kidnap of my mother.

謝謝妳提到我母親被綁架的事情。

It's a very difficult subject.

它是一件很難處理的事情。

But what it means is that when you fight corruption,

但是它意味著當你反貪腐的時候，

when you touch the pockets of people who are stealing money,

當你觸及到貪污者的利益時，

they don't just keep quiet.

他們是不會保持靜默的。

They fight back, and the issue for you is when they try to intimidate you,

他們會反擊，而你面臨的問題 就是當他們試圖恐嚇你的時候，

do you give up, or do you fight on?

你會放棄，還是奮戰到底？

Do you find a way to stay on and fight back?

你會找到一個堅持並 反擊回去的辦法嗎？

And the answer that I had with the teams I worked with

我與我的工作團隊的答案是

is we have to fight on.

我們必須奮戰下去。

We have to create those institutions.

我們必須設立那些制度。

We have to find ways to stop these people

我們必須找到方法，

阻止這些人竊取 我們大家未來的遺產。

from taking away the heritage of the future.

And so that's what we did.

那就是我們所做的事。

And even out of government, we continued to make that point.

我們繼續強調那一點， 甚至在政府以外。

In our countries, nobody, nobody is going to fight corruption

在我們的國家，沒有人， 沒有人會為我們反貪腐。

for us but us.

除了我們自己，

And therefore, that comes with consequences,

所以，那是有代價的，

and we just have to do the best we can.

而我們只能盡最大的努力。

But I thank you and thank TED for giving us a voice

但是，我要感謝妳、也感謝 TED，

給我們機會對那些人說， 你們贏不了的 !

to say to those people, you will not win,

and we will not be intimidated.

而且我們不怕威脅 !

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Kelly Stoetzel: Thank you so much for your great talk and important work.

凱莉 · 史托澤爾：非常感謝妳 精彩的演講和所承擔的重任。

(Applause)

（掌聲）