How autonomous flying taxis could change the way you travel | Rodin Lyasoff

翻译人员: jacks peng

I love airplanes.

我喜欢飞机。

Oh -- I love airplanes.

真的非常喜欢。

So, when I went to college in the late 90s,

九十年代末我上大学的时候，

it was obvious that I was going to study aerospace.

曾不假思索地要选择航空专业。

And you wouldn't believe how many people told me,

你们肯定想不到有多少人对我说，

"Oh no, not aerospace.

“ 不要选航空专业，

Aerospace is going to be boring,

没什么前途，

everything in aerospace has already been done."

这个领域不会再有什么新发展了。"

Well, they were a little bit off the mark.

他们的话多少有失偏颇。

And in fact, I think the next decade

实际上，我认为未来十年

将是航空业的另一个黄金时期。

is going to be another golden age for aviation.

For one thing, and this is where I get excited,

首先，令我激动的是，

flight is about to get a lot more personal.

飞行正变得与每个人息息相关。

So, a little compare and contrast.

对比一下，

In the last century,

在上个世纪，

large commercial airplanes have connected cities across the globe.

大型商业飞机已经把 世界各地的城市连接起来了。

And 100 years ago,

一百年前，

it would have been unthinkable for all of us

人类根本无法想象

to fly here from around the world for a five-day conference.

飞到地球另一端参加一个五天的会议。

But we did, and most of us probably without a second thought.

但现在我们做到了，大部分人 可能也不会为此大惊小怪。

And that's a remarkable achievement for humanity.

这是人类的一个巨大成就。

But on a day-to-day basis, we still spend a lot of time in cars.

但是每一天，我们仍要 花很多时间在通勤上，

Or actively trying to avoid it.

或者试图避免它。

Some of my best friends live in San Francisco,

我有些关系密切的朋友住在旧金山，

I live in Mountain View, about 40 miles away.

而我住在离他们约65公里的山景城。

We're all busy.

我们都很忙，

At the end of the day,

一天结束的时候，

we're separated by something like two hours of heavy traffic.

2个小时的拥挤交通把我们分隔开了。

So frankly, we haven't seen each other in a few months.

老实说，我们已经好几个月没见面了。

Now, I work in downtown San Jose, which is near the airport.

我现在在圣何塞市区工作，离机场不远，

And there are actually days when I can leave work,

有时候我可以不去上班，

get on a plane and fly to Los Angeles

飞到洛杉矶，

faster than I can drive to San Francisco.

比我开车到旧金山还要快。

Cities are only getting more populated,

城市正在变得越来越拥挤，

the roads are full, and it's really difficult to expand them.

道路都被车占满了，很难再拓宽，

And so in a lot of places,

所以在很多地方，

there really aren't a lot of good solutions

面对日益严峻的交通问题

for getting around traffic.

我们却无能为力。

But what if you could fly over it?

但是，如果你可以飞呢？

The sky is underutilized,

天空还没有被充分利用，

and I would argue it will never be as congested as the roads are.

我敢说天空永远不会 像马路一样拥挤的。

First of all, you've got a whole other dimension,

首先，你有了另一套交通维度，

but also just safety considerations and air-traffic management

还有安全措施和空中交通管制，

will not allow bumper-to-bumper traffic in the sky.

不会让车速过慢的 交通问题在空中出现。

Which means, in many cases,

这意味着在多数情况下，

flying can be a long-term, compelling alternative

飞行可以是地面交通

to traveling on the ground.

长期、可靠的替换方案。

So imagine this:

想象一下，

you call an Uber, it takes you to a nearby landing spot --

你叫了一辆优步， 把你送到附近的一个停机点，

we call these vertiports --

我们叫它垂直升降机场。

there's an airplane waiting for you there,

那里有架飞机在等你，

会载着你飞越所有拥挤的交通，

flies you over all of the traffic in the middle,

在另一端，另一辆优步 会把你送到朋友家。

and on the other side, another Uber takes you to your friend's house.

说起优步，

And I said Uber,

but I really think we need to congratulate the Lyft branding team

我真的觉得我们应该祝贺 来福车(Lyft)品牌团队，

for their forward thinking in choosing their brand.

他们在选择品牌名称上 体现了出色的前瞻思维。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

So in that example,

在这个例子中，

OK, there are a few extra steps, I admit.

我承认还有一些路要走。

But it's 30 minutes versus two hours,

但耗费的时间从两小时 缩短到了30分钟，

it costs around 60 dollars,

花费大概六十美元，

and you get to fly.

你就能飞了。

We're not there yet,

我们还没发展到那一步，

but we are a lot closer than you might think.

但是我们离那一天 比你想象得要近得多。

So one of the first things we need

所以首先我们需要的是，

is we need an aircraft that can take off and land in small spaces

一种可以在小地方起降的飞机，

and quickly take you where you want to go.

能够迅速地把你带到目的地。

And helicopters can do that today,

现在的直升机可以做到这一点，

but traditionally, helicopters have been just a little bit too expensive,

但是传统直升机有点太贵了，

just a little too hard to pilot

而且很难操控，

and just a little too noisy to be used for daily transportation in cities.

在每天的城市交通中 使用的话，噪音又未免太大了。

Well, electric flight and autonomy are changing that.

不过，电动飞机和无人驾驶 正在改变这一点。

Electric flight, in particular,

特别是电动飞机，

unlocks new possibilities for vehicle configurations

解锁了车辆配置的新可能，

that we just could not explore in the past.

这在以前我们是无法做到的。

If you use electric motors,

如果你使用电动发动机，

可以在飞机上安很多个，

you can have many of them around the aircraft,

and it doesn't add a lot of extra weight.

飞机的重量却不会增加太多，

And that gives you redundancy and safety.

而且能保证适当的余度和安全。

And also, they are cleaner, cheaper and quieter

此外，电动发动机比内燃机

than internal combustion engines.

更环保，更便宜，也更安静。

Autonomy allows the transportation network to scale,

自动驾驶可以使交通网络规模化，

and I actually think it makes the aircraft safer.

我觉得这会使飞机更加安全。

Commercial flights are already automated for most of their duration,

客机在大部分飞行时间里 已经实现了自动化，

and I believe there will come a day

我相信将来有一天，

when we won't even trust an airplane that required a human to fly.

我们甚至不会信任需要 由人来驾驶的飞机了。

So, one of our teams at A3

我们在A3的一个团队，

wanted to see just how close this future really was.

想看看我们离实现这一天还有多远，

So they built and flew a prototype of one such vehicle.

所以他们打造并试飞了 这种飞机的一个模型，

And they made a point of only using

他们规定只准使用

mature, commercially available technologies today.

当今已成熟并已投入商业应用的技术。

We call it Vahana.

我们给这个模型起名叫 瓦哈纳。

It's fully electric.

它是全电动的。

It takes off and lands vertically, but flies forward like a regular airplane.

可以垂直起行和降落， 像普通飞机一样向前飞行，

It's fully self-piloted.

完全依靠自动驾驶，

You push a button, it takes off, flies and lands, all by itself.

你按一下按钮，它就起飞， 飞行和落地，全程自动完成。

The prototype that you see here

你在这里看到的这个模型，

is designed to carry a single passenger and luggage.

设计为只能运送一名乘客和行李。

And it can go about 20 miles in 15 minutes.

它在15分钟内可以飞行大概20英里。

And our estimate for a trip like that is it would cost around 40 dollars,

我们预计这样的旅程 大概会花费40美元，

which you can really build a business around.

这真的可以做成一门生意。

It has multiple redundant motors and batteries,

它有多个备用发动机和电池，

you can lose one, it will continue flying and land normally.

即使其中一个失效了， 仍可以继续正常飞行和降落。

It's pretty quiet.

它非常安静。

When it's flying overhead, it will be quieter than a Prius on the highway.

它在飞行状态中，比行驶在 高速上的普锐斯还安静。

It's intelligent and has cameras, lidar and radar,

它是智能的，配有摄像头， 激光雷达和雷达。

so it can detect and avoid unexpected obstacles.

所以它可以探测并绕开 不可预见的障碍物。

And the team really focused on making it efficient,

这个团队非常关心它的效率，

so the batteries are small, light, and they last longer.

所以电池都是又小又轻， 但可以续航更久的。

For reference, the Vahana battery

举个例子，瓦哈纳电池的尺寸还不到

is less than half the size of a Tesla Model S battery.

一辆特斯拉S汽车电池的一半。

It's about 40 kilowatt-hours.

耗电量 40千瓦时，

And you can hot swap the batteries in just a few minutes.

你可以在几分钟内完成电池的热交换。

And I do think that in a few years,

我真的觉得再过几年，

people will be comfortable getting by themselves

人们会习惯乘坐这种

in a self-piloted, electric, VTOL air taxi.

自动驾驶、全电动、 垂直起降的空中出租车。

But the team is busy working on the next version,

这个团队正在研究下一代产品，

which is going to carry at least two passengers

可以搭载至少两名乘客，

而且飞行里程更长。

and fly quite a bit farther.

But more importantly, there are over 20 companies around the world

更重要的是，世界上有超过20家公司

working on vehicles just like this one right now.

正在研制类似这样的飞机，

My best guess is in the next five years,

我猜很有可能在接下来的五年内，

you'll start seeing vertiports in some cities,

你可以在一些城市看到垂直升降机场。

and little airplane icons on your ride-sharing apps.

在你的共享软件旁边也 会出现小小的飞机图标。

And it might begin with a dozen,

也许一开始只有几架，

but eventually, we could have hundreds of these,

但是最终可能看到几百架，

flying around our cities.

飞行在我们的城市上空。

它将从根本上改变 我们与当地交通的关系。

And it will fundamentally transform our relationship with local travel.

In the past century, flight connected our planet,

在上个世纪， 飞机将世界各地连接起来了，

in the next, it will reconnect our local communities,

在下个世纪，飞机会 把我们的社区重新连接起来，

and I hope it will reconnect us to each other.

我希望它也会将人们 彼此重新连接起来。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）

Chris Anderson: OK, so when these things first roll out --

克里斯 · 安德森：这些服务 什么时候会首次推出呢——

right now, it's a single person aircraft, right?

现在还是一架单人飞机，对吧？

Rodin Lyasoff: Ours is, yes.

罗丹 · 利亚索夫： 我们的是，对的。

CA: Yours is.

CA: 你们的是。

I mean, someone comes out of their car,

那么我的理解是，有人下车后，

the door opens, they get in, there's no one else in there.

飞机门开着，他进来， 里面没有其他人。

This thing takes off.

这个东西起飞。

Could we do a poll here?

我们来投一下票吧。

Because these are early adopters in this room.

因为在座的算是早期的采纳者了，

I want to know who here is excited

我想知道都有谁对这个想法感兴趣，

about the idea of being picked up solo in an auto-flying --

就是你会独自一人 被一辆无人机接走——

Well, there you go!

哇，还真不少呢！

RL: It's pretty good.

RL: 非常好。

CA: That is pretty awesome,

CA: 好极了，

half of TED is completely stark staring bonkers.

还有一半的观众 完全感觉在看疯子。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

RL: So, one of the things we're really focusing on

RL: 我们现在重点关注的一件事

is, really, the cost.

其实是，成本。

So you can really wrap a business around that.

你真的可以围绕这个 开展一门生意。

And so, that's why some of the features are really driven by price.

这也是为什么其中的 一些功能是由价格决定的。

And the 40-dollar price tag is really a target that we're aiming for.

我们要实现的目标 是40美元的定价。

Which should make it accessible to a larger crowd than this one.

比起现在的这个，40美元 会让更多的人支付得起。

CA: The biggest blockage in terms of when this rolls out

CA: 现在推出这个产品最大的障碍，

is probably not the technology at this point -- it's regulation, right?

可能不是技术问题，而是监管，对吗？

RL: That's probably true, yes, I would agree with that.

RL: 是的，我大概同意你说的。

The technology need to mature in terms of safety,

需要成熟的技术以确保安全，

to get to the safety levels that we expect from aircraft.

达到飞机预期的安全水平。

But I don't think there are any blockers there,

但是我认为这方面不存在障碍。

just work needs to get done.

就是还有一些工作要做。

CA: So, first, this is ride sharing.

CA: 所以，首先，这是通行共享。

Are we that far away from a time

是否有一天，

when lots of people have one of these in their garage

人们会放一架这样的飞机 在自己的车库里，

and just kind of, go direct to their friend's house?

然后就直接飞到朋友家了？

RL: My personal view is that ride sharing actually allows you to operate

RL: 我个人的观点是， 共享可以让你在整个商业的运营中

that entire business much more efficiently.

更加高效。

You know, there are millennials that say they never want to own a car.

你知道，有些千禧一代说 他们永远都不想买车。

I think they'll probably feel even stronger about aircraft.

我觉得他们会更需要飞机，

So --

所以——

(Laughter)

（笑声）

I really think that the network scales and operates a lot better

我真的觉得，共享平台的 网络规模和运作效率

as a ride-sharing platform,

会好得多，

also because the integration with air-traffic management

另外，如果做中心化的处理，

works a lot better if it's handled centrally.

与空中交通管制的结合也会更好些。

CA: Cool. Thank you for that.

CA: 好，谢谢！

RL: Thank you. CA: That was amazing.

RL: 谢谢。 CA: 太棒了。