How autonomous flying taxis could change the way you travel | Rodin Lyasoff

Prevoditelj: Ivan Stamenković Recezent: Sanda L

I love airplanes.

Volim avione.

Oh -- I love airplanes.

O -- ja obožavam avione.

So, when I went to college in the late 90s,

Tako, kada sam krenuo na fakultet u kasnim 90-ima,

it was obvious that I was going to study aerospace.

bilo je očito da ću se baviti zrakoplovstvom.

And you wouldn't believe how many people told me,

I ne biste vjerovali koliko ljudi mi je reklo,

"Oh no, not aerospace.

"O, ne, ne zrakoplovstvo.

Aerospace is going to be boring,

Zrakoplovstvo će biti dosadno,

everything in aerospace has already been done."

sve u zrakoplovstvu već je učinjeno."

Well, they were a little bit off the mark.

Pa, malo su promašili.

And in fact, I think the next decade

Mislim da će sljedeće desetljeće

is going to be another golden age for aviation.

biti novo zlatno doba avijacije.

For one thing, and this is where I get excited,

Kao prvo, i ovdje postanem uzbuđen,

flight is about to get a lot more personal.

let će postati puno osobniji.

So, a little compare and contrast.

Malo usporedbe i kontrasta.

In the last century,

U prošlom stoljeću,

large commercial airplanes have connected cities across the globe.

veliki komercijalni avioni povezali su gradove diljem planeta.

And 100 years ago,

I prije stotinu godina

it would have been unthinkable for all of us

za sve nas bilo bi nezamislivo

doletjeti iz čitavog svijeta ovdje na petodnevnu konferenciju.

to fly here from around the world for a five-day conference.

But we did, and most of us probably without a second thought.

Ali jesmo, i većina nas bez razmišljanja.

And that's a remarkable achievement for humanity.

I to je zaista veliko postignuće za čovječanstvo.

But on a day-to-day basis, we still spend a lot of time in cars.

Ali na dnevnoj bazi, i dalje provodimo puno vremena u autima.

Or actively trying to avoid it.

Ili ih aktivno nastojimo izbjeći.

Some of my best friends live in San Francisco,

Neki od mojih najboljih prijatelja žive u San Franciscu,

I live in Mountain View, about 40 miles away.

ja živim u Mountain Viewu, oko 60 km dalje.

We're all busy.

Svi smo zauzeti.

At the end of the day,

Na kraju dana,

we're separated by something like two hours of heavy traffic.

razdvojeni smo s nekih dva sata gustog prometa.

So frankly, we haven't seen each other in a few months.

Tako da, iskreno, nismo se vidjeli nekoliko mjeseci.

Now, I work in downtown San Jose, which is near the airport.

Sad, ja radim u centru San Josea, koji je blizu aerodroma.

And there are actually days when I can leave work,

I postoje dani kada mogu otići s posla,

get on a plane and fly to Los Angeles

sjesti na avion i odletjeti za Los Angeles

faster than I can drive to San Francisco.

brže nego što se mogu odvesti u San Francisco.

Cities are only getting more populated,

Gradovi su sve napučeniji,

the roads are full, and it's really difficult to expand them.

ceste su pune i zaista ih je teško proširiti.

And so in a lot of places,

Tako da na puno mjesta

there really aren't a lot of good solutions

zaista nema nekih dobrih rješenja

for getting around traffic.

za probleme prometa.

But what if you could fly over it?

Ali što kada biste ih mogli preletjeti?

The sky is underutilized,

Nebo je neiskorišteno

and I would argue it will never be as congested as the roads are.

i ja vjerujem kako nikad neće biti zakrčeno kao što su ceste.

First of all, you've got a whole other dimension,

Prvo, imate potpuno drugu dimenziju,

but also just safety considerations and air-traffic management

ali također, upravljanje zračnim prometom te sigurnosni propisi

will not allow bumper-to-bumper traffic in the sky.

neće dozvoliti gužvu u prometu na nebu.

Which means, in many cases,

Što u puno slučajeva znači

flying can be a long-term, compelling alternative

da letenje može biti dugoročna zanimljiva alternativa

to traveling on the ground.

putovanju na zemlji.

So imagine this:

Zamislite ovo:

you call an Uber, it takes you to a nearby landing spot --

zovete Uber, odveze vas do sletne točke u blizini --

we call these vertiports --

na okomito uzletište --

there's an airplane waiting for you there,

tamo vas čeka avion,

preletite sav taj promet između

flies you over all of the traffic in the middle,

and on the other side, another Uber takes you to your friend's house.

i na drugoj strani drugi Uber vas odveze do prijateljeve kuće.

And I said Uber,

I kažem Uber,

but I really think we need to congratulate the Lyft branding team

ali mislim da trebamo čestitati Lyft (podizanje) branding timu

for their forward thinking in choosing their brand.

na svom naprednom razmišljanju u odabiru branda.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

So in that example,

Tako da u tom primjeru,

OK, there are a few extra steps, I admit.

OK, ima nekoliko koraka više, priznajem.

But it's 30 minutes versus two hours,

Ali to je pola sata naspram dva sata,

it costs around 60 dollars,

košta oko 60 dolara

and you get to fly.

i letite.

We're not there yet,

Nismo još došli do toga,

but we are a lot closer than you might think.

ali smo puno bliže no što mislite.

So one of the first things we need

Jedna od stvari koje trebamo

is we need an aircraft that can take off and land in small spaces

je letjelica koja može poletjeti i sletjeti na malim prostorima

and quickly take you where you want to go.

i brzo vas odvesti gdje trebate.

And helicopters can do that today,

I helikopteri to mogu danas,

but traditionally, helicopters have been just a little bit too expensive,

ali su oni oduvijek malo preskupi,

just a little too hard to pilot

malo preteški za pilotiranje

and just a little too noisy to be used for daily transportation in cities.

i malo preglasni za dnevni transport u gradovima.

Well, electric flight and autonomy are changing that.

Pa, električni letovi i autonomija to mijenjaju.

Electric flight, in particular,

Električni letovi osobito

unlocks new possibilities for vehicle configurations

otvaraju nove mogućnosti za konfiguraciju vozila

that we just could not explore in the past.

koje prije nismo mogli istraživati.

If you use electric motors,

Ako koristite električne motore,

you can have many of them around the aircraft,

možete ih imati puno oko letjelice

and it doesn't add a lot of extra weight.

i to ne dodaje puno težine,

And that gives you redundancy and safety.

a daje vam dodatnu rezervu i sigurnost.

And also, they are cleaner, cheaper and quieter

Također, čišći su, povoljniji i tiši

than internal combustion engines.

nego motori s unutarnjim izgaranjem.

Autonomy allows the transportation network to scale,

Autonomija dozvoljava transportnoj mreži da raste

and I actually think it makes the aircraft safer.

i mislim da čini letjelicu sigurnijom.

Commercial flights are already automated for most of their duration,

Komercijalni letovi su već automatizirani većim dijelom puta

and I believe there will come a day

i vjerujem da će doći dan

when we won't even trust an airplane that required a human to fly.

kada više nećemo ni vjerovati avionu kojim je trebao upravljati čovjek.

So, one of our teams at A3

Tako, jedan naš tim u A3

wanted to see just how close this future really was.

htio je provjeriti koliko je, zapravo, blizu budućnost.

So they built and flew a prototype of one such vehicle.

Stoga su izgradili i letjeli prototipom jednog takvog vozila.

And they made a point of only using

I koristili su samo

mature, commercially available technologies today.

zrele, komercijalno dostupne tehnologije današnjice.

We call it Vahana.

Zovemo ga Vahana.

It's fully electric.

Električan je.

It takes off and lands vertically, but flies forward like a regular airplane.

Polijeće i slijeće vertikalno, ali leti naprijed kao normalan avion.

It's fully self-piloted.

Potpuno je autonoman.

You push a button, it takes off, flies and lands, all by itself.

Stisnete dugme, polijeće, leti i slijeće, potpuno samostalno.

The prototype that you see here

Prototip kojeg vidite ovdje

is designed to carry a single passenger and luggage.

dizajniran je da nosi jednog putnika i prtljagu.

And it can go about 20 miles in 15 minutes.

I može preletjeti preko 30 km u 15 minuta.

And our estimate for a trip like that is it would cost around 40 dollars,

I naša procjena je da bi takav put koštao oko 40 dolara,

which you can really build a business around.

oko čega zaista možete razviti posao.

It has multiple redundant motors and batteries,

Ima više redundantnih motora i baterija,

you can lose one, it will continue flying and land normally.

možete izgubiti jednu i nastavit će letjeti i sletjeti normalno.

It's pretty quiet.

Poprilično je tih.

When it's flying overhead, it will be quieter than a Prius on the highway.

Kada leti iznad vas, bit će tiši nego Prius na autocesti.

It's intelligent and has cameras, lidar and radar,

Pametan je i ima kamere, lidar i radar,

so it can detect and avoid unexpected obstacles.

tako da može uočiti i izbjeći neočekivane prepreke.

And the team really focused on making it efficient,

I tim je zaista usredotočen da bude učinkovit,

so the batteries are small, light, and they last longer.

tako da su baterije male, lagane i traju duže.

For reference, the Vahana battery

Za usporedbu, Vahana baterija

is less than half the size of a Tesla Model S battery.

je upola manja od baterije Tesla modela S.

It's about 40 kilowatt-hours.

Ima 40 kilovat sati.

And you can hot swap the batteries in just a few minutes.

I možete zamijeniti bateriju u samo par minuta.

And I do think that in a few years,

I mislim da će za nekoliko godina

people will be comfortable getting by themselves

ljudima biti ugodno

da sami uđu u autonomni, električni, zračni taksi.

in a self-piloted, electric, VTOL air taxi.

But the team is busy working on the next version,

Ali tim je zauzet radom na sljedećoj verziji,

which is going to carry at least two passengers

koja će moći prevoziti bar dva putnika

and fly quite a bit farther.

i letjeti još malo dalje.

But more importantly, there are over 20 companies around the world

Ali još važnije od toga, postoji 20 tvrtki diljem svijeta

working on vehicles just like this one right now.

koje danas rade na vozilu poput ovoga.

My best guess is in the next five years,

Moje nagađanje je da ćete u sljedećih pet godina

you'll start seeing vertiports in some cities,

početi viđati vertidrome u nekim gradovima

and little airplane icons on your ride-sharing apps.

i male ikone zrakoplova u vašim aplikacijama za dijeljenje vožnje.

And it might begin with a dozen,

I možda će početi s desetak,

but eventually, we could have hundreds of these,

ali na kraju ćemo ih možda imati na stotine

flying around our cities.

kako lete oko naših gradova.

And it will fundamentally transform our relationship with local travel.

I to će iz temelja promijeniti naš odnos prema lokalnim putovanjima.

In the past century, flight connected our planet,

U prošlom stoljeću, letovi su povezali naš planet,

in the next, it will reconnect our local communities,

u sljedećem, povezat će naše lokalne zajednice

and I hope it will reconnect us to each other.

i nadam se da će nas povezati jedne s drugima.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

Chris Anderson: OK, so when these things first roll out --

Chris Anderson: OK, kada te stvari budu lansirane --

right now, it's a single person aircraft, right?

sada je to letjelica za jednu osobu, zar ne?

Rodin Lyasoff: Ours is, yes.

Rodin Lyasoff: Naša jest, da.

CA: Yours is.

CA: Vaša jest.

I mean, someone comes out of their car,

Mislim, netko izađe iz svog auta,

the door opens, they get in, there's no one else in there.

vrata se otvore, uđu, nema nikog drugog tamo.

This thing takes off.

Ta stvar poleti.

Could we do a poll here?

Možemo li napraviti anketu?

Because these are early adopters in this room.

Jer ovdje su oni koji rano prihvaćaju inovacije.

I want to know who here is excited

Želim znati tko je uzbuđen idejom

about the idea of being picked up solo in an auto-flying --

da ga pokupe samog u autonomnoj lete --

Well, there you go!

Pa, eto ga!

RL: It's pretty good.

RL: Dosta dobro.

CA: That is pretty awesome,

CA: To je odlično,

half of TED is completely stark staring bonkers.

pola TED-a je potpuno ludo.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

RL: So, one of the things we're really focusing on

RL: Jedna od stvari na koje smo usredotočeni

is, really, the cost.

je, zapravo, trošak.

So you can really wrap a business around that.

Tako da možete izgraditi posao oko toga.

And so, that's why some of the features are really driven by price.

I zato su neke od mogućnosti pokretane cijenom.

And the 40-dollar price tag is really a target that we're aiming for.

I cijena od 40 dolara je ono što ciljamo.

Which should make it accessible to a larger crowd than this one.

Što bi to učinilo dostupnijim većoj grupi od ove.

CA: The biggest blockage in terms of when this rolls out

CA: Najveća blokada po pitanju kada će ovo biti pokrenuto

is probably not the technology at this point -- it's regulation, right?

vjerojatno nije tehnologija, već regulacija, zar ne?

RL: That's probably true, yes, I would agree with that.

RL: Da, to je vjerojatno istina, složio bih se s tim.

The technology need to mature in terms of safety,

Tehnologija mora dozrijeti po pitanju sigurnosti,

to get to the safety levels that we expect from aircraft.

kako bi došla do razina sigurnosti koje očekujemo od letjelice.

But I don't think there are any blockers there,

Ali mislim da tu ne postoje blokade,

just work needs to get done.

samo se mora odraditi posao.

CA: So, first, this is ride sharing.

CA: Dakle, ovo je dijeljenje vožnje.

Are we that far away from a time

Jesmo li toliko daleko od vremena

when lots of people have one of these in their garage

kada će puno ljudi ovo imati u svojim garažama

and just kind of, go direct to their friend's house?

i samo otići direktno do kuće svojih prijatelja?

RL: My personal view is that ride sharing actually allows you to operate

RL: Moje osobno viđenje je da dijeljenje vožnje omogućuje upravljanje

that entire business much more efficiently.

cijelom operacijom puno učinkovitije.

You know, there are millennials that say they never want to own a car.

Znate, postoje milenijalci koji kažu da ne žele nikada imati auto.

I think they'll probably feel even stronger about aircraft.

Mislim da bi imali snažnije osjećaje ako je u pitanju letjelica.

So --

Pa --

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

I really think that the network scales and operates a lot better

Mislim da mreža stvarno bolje radi i raste

as a ride-sharing platform,

kao platforma za dijeljenje vožnje,

also because the integration with air-traffic management

također i zbog integracije u upravljanje zračnim prometom

works a lot better if it's handled centrally.

koja radi puno bolje ako se vodi s jedne točke.

CA: Cool. Thank you for that.

CA: Odlično. Hvala ti na tome.

RL: Thank you. CA: That was amazing.

RL: Hvala. CA: Bilo je odlično.