How autonomous flying taxis could change the way you travel | Rodin Lyasoff

106,603 views

2018-07-20 ・ TED


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How autonomous flying taxis could change the way you travel | Rodin Lyasoff

106,603 views ・ 2018-07-20

TED


Dvaput kliknite na engleske titlove ispod za reprodukciju videozapisa.

Prevoditelj: Ivan Stamenković Recezent: Sanda L
00:12
I love airplanes.
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Volim avione.
00:14
Oh -- I love airplanes.
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O -- ja obožavam avione.
00:16
So, when I went to college in the late 90s,
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Tako, kada sam krenuo na fakultet u kasnim 90-ima,
00:19
it was obvious that I was going to study aerospace.
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bilo je očito da ću se baviti zrakoplovstvom.
00:21
And you wouldn't believe how many people told me,
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I ne biste vjerovali koliko ljudi mi je reklo,
00:24
"Oh no, not aerospace.
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"O, ne, ne zrakoplovstvo.
00:26
Aerospace is going to be boring,
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Zrakoplovstvo će biti dosadno,
00:27
everything in aerospace has already been done."
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sve u zrakoplovstvu već je učinjeno."
00:31
Well, they were a little bit off the mark.
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Pa, malo su promašili.
00:33
And in fact, I think the next decade
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Mislim da će sljedeće desetljeće
00:35
is going to be another golden age for aviation.
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biti novo zlatno doba avijacije.
00:37
For one thing, and this is where I get excited,
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Kao prvo, i ovdje postanem uzbuđen,
00:39
flight is about to get a lot more personal.
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let će postati puno osobniji.
00:41
So, a little compare and contrast.
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Malo usporedbe i kontrasta.
00:44
In the last century,
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U prošlom stoljeću,
00:46
large commercial airplanes have connected cities across the globe.
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veliki komercijalni avioni povezali su gradove diljem planeta.
00:49
And 100 years ago,
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I prije stotinu godina
00:50
it would have been unthinkable for all of us
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za sve nas bilo bi nezamislivo
doletjeti iz čitavog svijeta ovdje na petodnevnu konferenciju.
00:53
to fly here from around the world for a five-day conference.
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00:55
But we did, and most of us probably without a second thought.
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Ali jesmo, i većina nas bez razmišljanja.
00:59
And that's a remarkable achievement for humanity.
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I to je zaista veliko postignuće za čovječanstvo.
01:02
But on a day-to-day basis, we still spend a lot of time in cars.
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Ali na dnevnoj bazi, i dalje provodimo puno vremena u autima.
01:06
Or actively trying to avoid it.
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Ili ih aktivno nastojimo izbjeći.
01:10
Some of my best friends live in San Francisco,
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Neki od mojih najboljih prijatelja žive u San Franciscu,
01:12
I live in Mountain View, about 40 miles away.
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ja živim u Mountain Viewu, oko 60 km dalje.
01:15
We're all busy.
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Svi smo zauzeti.
01:16
At the end of the day,
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Na kraju dana,
01:17
we're separated by something like two hours of heavy traffic.
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razdvojeni smo s nekih dva sata gustog prometa.
01:20
So frankly, we haven't seen each other in a few months.
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Tako da, iskreno, nismo se vidjeli nekoliko mjeseci.
01:24
Now, I work in downtown San Jose, which is near the airport.
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Sad, ja radim u centru San Josea, koji je blizu aerodroma.
01:28
And there are actually days when I can leave work,
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I postoje dani kada mogu otići s posla,
01:31
get on a plane and fly to Los Angeles
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sjesti na avion i odletjeti za Los Angeles
01:34
faster than I can drive to San Francisco.
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brže nego što se mogu odvesti u San Francisco.
01:36
Cities are only getting more populated,
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Gradovi su sve napučeniji,
01:38
the roads are full, and it's really difficult to expand them.
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ceste su pune i zaista ih je teško proširiti.
01:41
And so in a lot of places,
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Tako da na puno mjesta
01:43
there really aren't a lot of good solutions
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zaista nema nekih dobrih rješenja
01:45
for getting around traffic.
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za probleme prometa.
01:47
But what if you could fly over it?
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Ali što kada biste ih mogli preletjeti?
01:51
The sky is underutilized,
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Nebo je neiskorišteno
01:52
and I would argue it will never be as congested as the roads are.
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i ja vjerujem kako nikad neće biti zakrčeno kao što su ceste.
01:56
First of all, you've got a whole other dimension,
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Prvo, imate potpuno drugu dimenziju,
01:59
but also just safety considerations and air-traffic management
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ali također, upravljanje zračnim prometom te sigurnosni propisi
02:03
will not allow bumper-to-bumper traffic in the sky.
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neće dozvoliti gužvu u prometu na nebu.
02:05
Which means, in many cases,
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Što u puno slučajeva znači
02:07
flying can be a long-term, compelling alternative
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da letenje može biti dugoročna zanimljiva alternativa
02:10
to traveling on the ground.
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putovanju na zemlji.
02:13
So imagine this:
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Zamislite ovo:
02:14
you call an Uber, it takes you to a nearby landing spot --
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zovete Uber, odveze vas do sletne točke u blizini --
02:17
we call these vertiports --
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na okomito uzletište --
02:20
there's an airplane waiting for you there,
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tamo vas čeka avion,
preletite sav taj promet između
02:22
flies you over all of the traffic in the middle,
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02:24
and on the other side, another Uber takes you to your friend's house.
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i na drugoj strani drugi Uber vas odveze do prijateljeve kuće.
02:27
And I said Uber,
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I kažem Uber,
02:28
but I really think we need to congratulate the Lyft branding team
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ali mislim da trebamo čestitati Lyft (podizanje) branding timu
02:31
for their forward thinking in choosing their brand.
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na svom naprednom razmišljanju u odabiru branda.
02:34
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:36
So in that example,
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Tako da u tom primjeru,
02:37
OK, there are a few extra steps, I admit.
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OK, ima nekoliko koraka više, priznajem.
02:39
But it's 30 minutes versus two hours,
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Ali to je pola sata naspram dva sata,
02:43
it costs around 60 dollars,
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košta oko 60 dolara
02:44
and you get to fly.
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i letite.
02:46
We're not there yet,
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Nismo još došli do toga,
02:48
but we are a lot closer than you might think.
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ali smo puno bliže no što mislite.
02:50
So one of the first things we need
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Jedna od stvari koje trebamo
02:52
is we need an aircraft that can take off and land in small spaces
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je letjelica koja može poletjeti i sletjeti na malim prostorima
02:55
and quickly take you where you want to go.
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i brzo vas odvesti gdje trebate.
02:57
And helicopters can do that today,
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I helikopteri to mogu danas,
02:59
but traditionally, helicopters have been just a little bit too expensive,
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ali su oni oduvijek malo preskupi,
03:03
just a little too hard to pilot
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malo preteški za pilotiranje
03:05
and just a little too noisy to be used for daily transportation in cities.
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i malo preglasni za dnevni transport u gradovima.
03:10
Well, electric flight and autonomy are changing that.
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Pa, električni letovi i autonomija to mijenjaju.
03:14
Electric flight, in particular,
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Električni letovi osobito
03:15
unlocks new possibilities for vehicle configurations
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otvaraju nove mogućnosti za konfiguraciju vozila
03:18
that we just could not explore in the past.
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koje prije nismo mogli istraživati.
03:21
If you use electric motors,
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Ako koristite električne motore,
03:23
you can have many of them around the aircraft,
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možete ih imati puno oko letjelice
03:25
and it doesn't add a lot of extra weight.
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i to ne dodaje puno težine,
03:27
And that gives you redundancy and safety.
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a daje vam dodatnu rezervu i sigurnost.
03:29
And also, they are cleaner, cheaper and quieter
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Također, čišći su, povoljniji i tiši
03:31
than internal combustion engines.
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nego motori s unutarnjim izgaranjem.
03:33
Autonomy allows the transportation network to scale,
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Autonomija dozvoljava transportnoj mreži da raste
03:36
and I actually think it makes the aircraft safer.
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i mislim da čini letjelicu sigurnijom.
03:39
Commercial flights are already automated for most of their duration,
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Komercijalni letovi su već automatizirani većim dijelom puta
03:42
and I believe there will come a day
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i vjerujem da će doći dan
03:45
when we won't even trust an airplane that required a human to fly.
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kada više nećemo ni vjerovati avionu kojim je trebao upravljati čovjek.
03:50
So, one of our teams at A3
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Tako, jedan naš tim u A3
03:52
wanted to see just how close this future really was.
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htio je provjeriti koliko je, zapravo, blizu budućnost.
03:55
So they built and flew a prototype of one such vehicle.
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Stoga su izgradili i letjeli prototipom jednog takvog vozila.
03:59
And they made a point of only using
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I koristili su samo
04:01
mature, commercially available technologies today.
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zrele, komercijalno dostupne tehnologije današnjice.
04:04
We call it Vahana.
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Zovemo ga Vahana.
04:05
It's fully electric.
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Električan je.
04:08
It takes off and lands vertically, but flies forward like a regular airplane.
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Polijeće i slijeće vertikalno, ali leti naprijed kao normalan avion.
04:11
It's fully self-piloted.
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Potpuno je autonoman.
04:13
You push a button, it takes off, flies and lands, all by itself.
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Stisnete dugme, polijeće, leti i slijeće, potpuno samostalno.
04:17
The prototype that you see here
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Prototip kojeg vidite ovdje
04:19
is designed to carry a single passenger and luggage.
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dizajniran je da nosi jednog putnika i prtljagu.
04:21
And it can go about 20 miles in 15 minutes.
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I može preletjeti preko 30 km u 15 minuta.
04:23
And our estimate for a trip like that is it would cost around 40 dollars,
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I naša procjena je da bi takav put koštao oko 40 dolara,
04:28
which you can really build a business around.
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oko čega zaista možete razviti posao.
04:30
It has multiple redundant motors and batteries,
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Ima više redundantnih motora i baterija,
04:32
you can lose one, it will continue flying and land normally.
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možete izgubiti jednu i nastavit će letjeti i sletjeti normalno.
04:36
It's pretty quiet.
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Poprilično je tih.
04:37
When it's flying overhead, it will be quieter than a Prius on the highway.
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Kada leti iznad vas, bit će tiši nego Prius na autocesti.
04:41
It's intelligent and has cameras, lidar and radar,
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Pametan je i ima kamere, lidar i radar,
04:43
so it can detect and avoid unexpected obstacles.
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tako da može uočiti i izbjeći neočekivane prepreke.
04:47
And the team really focused on making it efficient,
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I tim je zaista usredotočen da bude učinkovit,
04:49
so the batteries are small, light, and they last longer.
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tako da su baterije male, lagane i traju duže.
04:53
For reference, the Vahana battery
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Za usporedbu, Vahana baterija
04:56
is less than half the size of a Tesla Model S battery.
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je upola manja od baterije Tesla modela S.
04:59
It's about 40 kilowatt-hours.
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Ima 40 kilovat sati.
05:01
And you can hot swap the batteries in just a few minutes.
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I možete zamijeniti bateriju u samo par minuta.
05:05
And I do think that in a few years,
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I mislim da će za nekoliko godina
05:06
people will be comfortable getting by themselves
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ljudima biti ugodno
da sami uđu u autonomni, električni, zračni taksi.
05:09
in a self-piloted, electric, VTOL air taxi.
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05:13
But the team is busy working on the next version,
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Ali tim je zauzet radom na sljedećoj verziji,
05:15
which is going to carry at least two passengers
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koja će moći prevoziti bar dva putnika
05:18
and fly quite a bit farther.
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i letjeti još malo dalje.
05:19
But more importantly, there are over 20 companies around the world
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Ali još važnije od toga, postoji 20 tvrtki diljem svijeta
05:24
working on vehicles just like this one right now.
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koje danas rade na vozilu poput ovoga.
05:28
My best guess is in the next five years,
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Moje nagađanje je da ćete u sljedećih pet godina
05:30
you'll start seeing vertiports in some cities,
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početi viđati vertidrome u nekim gradovima
05:32
and little airplane icons on your ride-sharing apps.
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i male ikone zrakoplova u vašim aplikacijama za dijeljenje vožnje.
05:36
And it might begin with a dozen,
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I možda će početi s desetak,
05:38
but eventually, we could have hundreds of these,
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ali na kraju ćemo ih možda imati na stotine
05:40
flying around our cities.
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kako lete oko naših gradova.
05:42
And it will fundamentally transform our relationship with local travel.
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I to će iz temelja promijeniti naš odnos prema lokalnim putovanjima.
05:47
In the past century, flight connected our planet,
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U prošlom stoljeću, letovi su povezali naš planet,
05:50
in the next, it will reconnect our local communities,
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u sljedećem, povezat će naše lokalne zajednice
05:53
and I hope it will reconnect us to each other.
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i nadam se da će nas povezati jedne s drugima.
05:56
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
05:57
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
06:05
Chris Anderson: OK, so when these things first roll out --
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Chris Anderson: OK, kada te stvari budu lansirane --
06:08
right now, it's a single person aircraft, right?
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sada je to letjelica za jednu osobu, zar ne?
06:12
Rodin Lyasoff: Ours is, yes.
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Rodin Lyasoff: Naša jest, da.
06:13
CA: Yours is.
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CA: Vaša jest.
06:14
I mean, someone comes out of their car,
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Mislim, netko izađe iz svog auta,
06:17
the door opens, they get in, there's no one else in there.
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vrata se otvore, uđu, nema nikog drugog tamo.
06:20
This thing takes off.
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Ta stvar poleti.
06:22
Could we do a poll here?
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Možemo li napraviti anketu?
06:23
Because these are early adopters in this room.
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Jer ovdje su oni koji rano prihvaćaju inovacije.
06:25
I want to know who here is excited
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Želim znati tko je uzbuđen idejom
06:28
about the idea of being picked up solo in an auto-flying --
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da ga pokupe samog u autonomnoj lete --
06:32
Well, there you go!
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Pa, eto ga!
06:34
RL: It's pretty good.
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RL: Dosta dobro.
06:35
CA: That is pretty awesome,
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CA: To je odlično,
06:36
half of TED is completely stark staring bonkers.
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pola TED-a je potpuno ludo.
06:39
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
06:42
RL: So, one of the things we're really focusing on
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RL: Jedna od stvari na koje smo usredotočeni
06:44
is, really, the cost.
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je, zapravo, trošak.
06:46
So you can really wrap a business around that.
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Tako da možete izgraditi posao oko toga.
06:48
And so, that's why some of the features are really driven by price.
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I zato su neke od mogućnosti pokretane cijenom.
06:52
And the 40-dollar price tag is really a target that we're aiming for.
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I cijena od 40 dolara je ono što ciljamo.
06:55
Which should make it accessible to a larger crowd than this one.
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Što bi to učinilo dostupnijim većoj grupi od ove.
06:59
CA: The biggest blockage in terms of when this rolls out
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CA: Najveća blokada po pitanju kada će ovo biti pokrenuto
07:03
is probably not the technology at this point -- it's regulation, right?
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vjerojatno nije tehnologija, već regulacija, zar ne?
07:06
RL: That's probably true, yes, I would agree with that.
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RL: Da, to je vjerojatno istina, složio bih se s tim.
07:09
The technology need to mature in terms of safety,
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Tehnologija mora dozrijeti po pitanju sigurnosti,
07:12
to get to the safety levels that we expect from aircraft.
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kako bi došla do razina sigurnosti koje očekujemo od letjelice.
07:16
But I don't think there are any blockers there,
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Ali mislim da tu ne postoje blokade,
07:18
just work needs to get done.
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samo se mora odraditi posao.
07:19
CA: So, first, this is ride sharing.
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CA: Dakle, ovo je dijeljenje vožnje.
07:21
Are we that far away from a time
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Jesmo li toliko daleko od vremena
07:23
when lots of people have one of these in their garage
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kada će puno ljudi ovo imati u svojim garažama
07:26
and just kind of, go direct to their friend's house?
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i samo otići direktno do kuće svojih prijatelja?
07:29
RL: My personal view is that ride sharing actually allows you to operate
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RL: Moje osobno viđenje je da dijeljenje vožnje omogućuje upravljanje
07:33
that entire business much more efficiently.
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cijelom operacijom puno učinkovitije.
07:37
You know, there are millennials that say they never want to own a car.
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Znate, postoje milenijalci koji kažu da ne žele nikada imati auto.
07:40
I think they'll probably feel even stronger about aircraft.
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Mislim da bi imali snažnije osjećaje ako je u pitanju letjelica.
07:43
So --
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Pa --
07:44
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
07:46
I really think that the network scales and operates a lot better
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Mislim da mreža stvarno bolje radi i raste
07:50
as a ride-sharing platform,
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kao platforma za dijeljenje vožnje,
07:52
also because the integration with air-traffic management
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također i zbog integracije u upravljanje zračnim prometom
07:55
works a lot better if it's handled centrally.
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koja radi puno bolje ako se vodi s jedne točke.
07:58
CA: Cool. Thank you for that.
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CA: Odlično. Hvala ti na tome.
08:00
RL: Thank you. CA: That was amazing.
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RL: Hvala. CA: Bilo je odlično.
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