How autonomous flying taxis could change the way you travel | Rodin Lyasoff

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Yanyan Hong

I love airplanes.

我愛飛機。

Oh -- I love airplanes.

喔——我愛飛機。

So, when I went to college in the late 90s,

所以，九十年代末當我上大學時，

it was obvious that I was going to study aerospace.

很顯然我要讀的就是航太系。

And you wouldn't believe how many people told me,

你不會相信有多少人告訴我，

"Oh no, not aerospace.

「喔，不，不要唸航太。

Aerospace is going to be boring,

航太會很無聊，

everything in aerospace has already been done."

航太中的一切都已經有人做了。」

Well, they were a little bit off the mark.

嗯，他們有一點偏離了目標。

And in fact, I think the next decade

事實上，我認為接下來十年

is going to be another golden age for aviation.

會是航太的另一個黃金時期。

For one thing, and this is where I get excited,

一則，這也是讓我很興奮的一點，

flight is about to get a lot more personal.

飛行將會變的更個人化許多。

So, a little compare and contrast.

所以，來做一點比較和對比。

In the last century,

在上個世紀，

large commercial airplanes have connected cities across the globe.

大型商用飛機連結了全球的城市。

And 100 years ago,

一百年前，

it would have been unthinkable for all of us

我們所有人都難以想像

to fly here from around the world for a five-day conference.

從世界各地飛來這裡 參加爲期五天的大會。

But we did, and most of us probably without a second thought.

但我們就這麼做了， 且大部分人都覺得理所當然。

And that's a remarkable achievement for humanity.

那是人類很了不起的成就。

But on a day-to-day basis, we still spend a lot of time in cars.

但在日常生活中， 我們還是花很多時間在車上。

Or actively trying to avoid it.

或者主動避免花時間在車上。

Some of my best friends live in San Francisco,

我有一些最好的朋友住在舊金山，

I live in Mountain View, about 40 miles away.

我住在山景城，相距約 40 英哩。

We're all busy.

我們都很忙。

At the end of the day,

到頭來，

we're separated by something like two hours of heavy traffic.

我們被兩小時的 擁塞交通分隔開來。

So frankly, we haven't seen each other in a few months.

坦白說，我們已經幾個月不見了。

Now, I work in downtown San Jose, which is near the airport.

我工作的地點在聖荷西市中心， 很靠近機場。

And there are actually days when I can leave work,

其實有些日子我可以離開工作崗位，

get on a plane and fly to Los Angeles

坐上飛機，飛到洛杉磯，

faster than I can drive to San Francisco.

比我開車到舊金山還快。

Cities are only getting more populated,

城市只會人口越來越多，

the roads are full, and it's really difficult to expand them.

道路已經滿了，很難再做什麼擴充。

And so in a lot of places,

所以，在許多地方，

there really aren't a lot of good solutions

其實沒有什麼好的解決方案

for getting around traffic.

可以避開交通流量。

But what if you could fly over it?

但如果你能飛越它呢？

The sky is underutilized,

天空還沒有被充份利用，

and I would argue it will never be as congested as the roads are.

且我認為天空永遠都不可能 會像道路這麼擁塞。

First of all, you've got a whole other dimension,

首先，你會多一個維度，

but also just safety considerations and air-traffic management

但安全考量以及空中交通管理

will not allow bumper-to-bumper traffic in the sky.

不會允許空中出現一台 緊接一台的行進方式。

Which means, in many cases,

也就是說，在許多情況下，

flying can be a long-term, compelling alternative

飛行會是一種吸引人的 長期替代方案，

to traveling on the ground.

取代地面行進。

So imagine this:

所以，想像一下：

you call an Uber, it takes you to a nearby landing spot --

你可以用 Uber 叫車， 帶你到附近的降落地點——

we call these vertiports --

我們稱之為垂直升降機場——

there's an airplane waiting for you there,

在那裡有一架飛機等著你，

flies you over all of the traffic in the middle,

帶你飛過中間的繁忙交通，

and on the other side, another Uber takes you to your friend's house.

在另一頭，有另一台 Uber 的車 載你去你朋友家。

And I said Uber,

我說 Uber，

but I really think we need to congratulate the Lyft branding team

但我認為我們得要祝賀 Lyft 的品牌命名團隊，

for their forward thinking in choosing their brand.

在命名時就已經想到未來。 （註：Lift 有升起的意思）

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

So in that example,

在那個例子中，

OK, there are a few extra steps, I admit.

好，我承認還有額外的幾步要走。

But it's 30 minutes versus two hours,

但這差別是半小時比上兩小時，

it costs around 60 dollars,

成本大約是 60 美金，

and you get to fly.

你就能用飛的。

We're not there yet,

我們還沒辦到，

but we are a lot closer than you might think.

但已經比你想像的還要接近成功。

So one of the first things we need

我們首先需要的東西之一，

is we need an aircraft that can take off and land in small spaces

是我們需要一台 能在小空間起降的飛行器，

and quickly take you where you want to go.

能快速帶你到你想去的地方。

And helicopters can do that today,

現今直升機就可以做到這一點，

but traditionally, helicopters have been just a little bit too expensive,

但傳統的直升機太貴了一點，

just a little too hard to pilot

且有點太難駕駛，

and just a little too noisy to be used for daily transportation in cities.

還有點太吵，不適合 用在城市內的日常交通上。

Well, electric flight and autonomy are changing that.

電動飛行和自主性可以改變那一點。

Electric flight, in particular,

特別是電動飛行，

unlocks new possibilities for vehicle configurations

為運載工具的結構帶來新的可能性，

that we just could not explore in the past.

是我們過去無法想像的。

If you use electric motors,

若用的是電動馬達，

you can have many of them around the aircraft,

你可以在飛行器上裝很多台，

and it doesn't add a lot of extra weight.

也不會增加太多額外的重量。

And that gives you redundancy and safety.

讓你有餘裕以及安全性。

And also, they are cleaner, cheaper and quieter

此外，它們也比內燃式引擎

than internal combustion engines.

更乾淨、便宜、安靜。

Autonomy allows the transportation network to scale,

自主性讓交通網絡能夠延展，

and I actually think it makes the aircraft safer.

且我確實認為它能讓飛行器更安全。

Commercial flights are already automated for most of their duration,

商業飛行的航程有很大一部分 都已經是自動化的了，

and I believe there will come a day

我相信將來會有一天，

when we won't even trust an airplane that required a human to fly.

我們甚至不會信任 由人類駕駛的飛機。

So, one of our teams at A3

所以，我們在 A3 的其中一個團隊

wanted to see just how close this future really was.

想要看看這個未來到底有多近。

So they built and flew a prototype of one such vehicle.

所以他們打造了 一台這種原型機並做了試飛。

And they made a point of only using

而且他們主張只使用

mature, commercially available technologies today.

現今已成熟且可做為 商業用的技術。

We call it Vahana.

我們稱它為瓦哈納（Vahana） （注：印度教中神靈的坐騎）。

It's fully electric.

它是完全電動的。

It takes off and lands vertically, but flies forward like a regular airplane.

它會垂直起降， 但像一般飛機一樣向前飛行。

It's fully self-piloted.

它完全是自動駕駛。

You push a button, it takes off, flies and lands, all by itself.

你按一個按鍵，它就會升空、 飛行、降落，完全自動化。

The prototype that you see here

各位在這裡看到的原型機

is designed to carry a single passenger and luggage.

是設計來載一名乘客及行李用的。

And it can go about 20 miles in 15 minutes.

它在 15 分鐘內可飛行 20 英哩。

And our estimate for a trip like that is it would cost around 40 dollars,

我們估計，像這樣的行程， 成本大約是 40 美金，

which you can really build a business around.

這真的是有商機的。

It has multiple redundant motors and batteries,

它有數個多餘的馬達和電池，

you can lose one, it will continue flying and land normally.

就算一個壞了，仍然可以 繼續飛行並正常降落。

It's pretty quiet.

它很安靜。

When it's flying overhead, it will be quieter than a Prius on the highway.

它從上方飛過時，比高速公路上的 Prius（油電混合車）還安靜。

It's intelligent and has cameras, lidar and radar,

它有智慧，配有攝影機、 雷射雷達、雷達，

so it can detect and avoid unexpected obstacles.

它能偵測到並避開未預期的障礙物。

And the team really focused on making it efficient,

且研發團隊非常著重在它的效能，

so the batteries are small, light, and they last longer.

所以電池很小、很輕、很持久。

For reference, the Vahana battery

供各位參考，瓦哈納的電池

大小還不到 Tesla Model S （電動車）電池的一半。

is less than half the size of a Tesla Model S battery.

It's about 40 kilowatt-hours.

它的功率約 40 千瓦小時。

And you can hot swap the batteries in just a few minutes.

電池是熱插拔式的， 只要幾分鐘即可完成。

And I do think that in a few years,

我確實認為，在幾年之後，

people will be comfortable getting by themselves

大家就會很自在地搭乘

in a self-piloted, electric, VTOL air taxi.

自動駕駛、電動、 垂直起降的空中計程車。

But the team is busy working on the next version,

但研發團隊在忙著做下一個版本，

which is going to carry at least two passengers

這個版本將至少可容納兩名乘客，

and fly quite a bit farther.

且能飛得更遠一點。

But more importantly, there are over 20 companies around the world

但，更重要的是， 全世界有超過 20 間公司

working on vehicles just like this one right now.

現在都投入資源 在做這類的運載工具。

My best guess is in the next five years,

我的最佳揣測是，在接下來五年，

you'll start seeing vertiports in some cities,

就會在一些城市中 看見垂直升降機場，

and little airplane icons on your ride-sharing apps.

手機上也出現 飛機圖示的共乘 app。

And it might begin with a dozen,

一開始可能只有十幾台，

but eventually, we could have hundreds of these,

但最終，我們會有數百台，

flying around our cities.

在城市各處飛行。

它會從根本上轉變 我們和當地旅程的關係。

And it will fundamentally transform our relationship with local travel.

In the past century, flight connected our planet,

在過去一個世紀，飛行連結了地球。

in the next, it will reconnect our local communities,

在下一個世紀， 飛行將會重新連結當地社區，

and I hope it will reconnect us to each other.

我也希望它會讓我們 重新和彼此連結。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Chris Anderson: OK, so when these things first roll out --

克里斯安德森：所以， 當這些東西最早推出時——

right now, it's a single person aircraft, right?

現在，它只是單人乘坐的 飛行器，對吧？

Rodin Lyasoff: Ours is, yes.

羅定萊索夫： 我們的這款，是的。

CA: Yours is.

克：你們的那款是。

I mean, someone comes out of their car,

我的意思是，人們下了車，

the door opens, they get in, there's no one else in there.

門打開來，他們走進去， 裡面沒有其他人。

This thing takes off.

這東西就起飛了。

Could we do a poll here?

我們能在此做個調查嗎？

Because these are early adopters in this room.

因為在這裡的人 都是會先採用的人。

I want to know who here is excited

我想要知道，誰很興奮

about the idea of being picked up solo in an auto-flying --

想要看到這個單人 自動飛行的點子實現——

Well, there you go!

嗯，答案揭曉！

RL: It's pretty good.

羅：挺不錯的。

CA: That is pretty awesome,

克：很了不起。

half of TED is completely stark staring bonkers.

TED 有一半的人都是瘋子。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

RL: So, one of the things we're really focusing on

羅：我們很著重的其中一點，

is, really, the cost.

就是成本。

So you can really wrap a business around that.

這樣才能真正有商機。

And so, that's why some of the features are really driven by price.

這就是為什麼有些特色 是以價格為考量。

And the 40-dollar price tag is really a target that we're aiming for.

我們的目標是在上面 掛上 $40 的價格標籤。

Which should make it accessible to a larger crowd than this one.

這樣應該能讓比這裡的觀眾 還大很多的族群來使用。

CA: The biggest blockage in terms of when this rolls out

克：就何時要推出的 層面來說，在這個時點

is probably not the technology at this point -- it's regulation, right?

最大的阻礙可能不是技術—— 而是法規，對吧？

RL: That's probably true, yes, I would agree with that.

羅：很可能是如此， 是的，我同意。

The technology need to mature in terms of safety,

在安全方面，技術必須要很成熟，

to get to the safety levels that we expect from aircraft.

才能達到我們期望 這台飛行器具有的安全性。

But I don't think there are any blockers there,

但我不覺得這方面有任何阻礙，

just work needs to get done.

只是等著我們去做。

CA: So, first, this is ride sharing.

克：所以，首先，這是共乘。

Are we that far away from a time

我們是否很快就能看到

when lots of people have one of these in their garage

許多人在自家車庫 就有一台這種飛行器，

and just kind of, go direct to their friend's house?

類似就可以直接飛到 他們的朋友家去？

RL: My personal view is that ride sharing actually allows you to operate

羅：我個人的看法是， 共乘其實會讓你能夠

that entire business much more efficiently.

更有效率地營運這整個事業。

You know, there are millennials that say they never want to own a car.

你知道的，有些千禧世代的人 說他們這輩子都不會買車。

I think they'll probably feel even stronger about aircraft.

我想，對於飛行器 他們的感受可能會更強烈。

So --

所以——

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

I really think that the network scales and operates a lot better

我真的認為共乘平台的形式， 會讓這個網絡

as a ride-sharing platform,

延展和營運得更好，

also because the integration with air-traffic management

還有一個原因， 空中交通管理的整合，

works a lot better if it's handled centrally.

若能集中處理，會能做得比較好。

CA: Cool. Thank you for that.

克：很棒。非常謝謝你。

RL: Thank you. CA: That was amazing.

羅：謝謝你。 克：真的很了不起。