Climate Action Tracker: The state of the climate crisis in 2021 | TED

翻译人员: Emma Bu 校对人员: Yanyan Hong

2021 is a crucial year in the fight against climate change.

2021 是对抗气候变化的关键一年。

According to the Paris Agreement timetable, this year,

根据巴黎气候协议的议程，今年，

governments must make key decisions on updating their climate action plans.

各国政府必须做出关键性决策， 提交气候行动的最新计划。

Are we on track to meet the goal of limiting global warming

我们能否实现将全球变暖的温度

to 1.5 degrees Celsius?

控制在 1.5 摄氏度以内的目标？

There is good news and bad news, and the details matter,

对此，既有好消息，也有坏消息， 以及一些重要的细节，

so let's explore the data.

让我们来看看数据。

Under the 2015 Paris Agreement,

在 2015 年巴黎气候协定中，

all countries agreed to hold the global average temperature increase

所有成员国达成一致， 要将全球平均温度增长

well below 2 degrees Celsius,

控制在 2 摄氏度以内，

and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

并争取将上升幅度 控制在 1.5 摄氏度以内。

Scientists, including the IPCC,

科学家们， 包括国际气候变化委员会表示，

tell us that to meet this 1.5-degree warming limit,

为了实现低于 1.5 摄氏度的控温目标，

global greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut in half by 2030,

全球温室气体排放量 需要在 2030 前减少一半，

and carbon dioxide emissions need to reach net zero by around 2050 --

二氧化碳排放量 需要在 2050 年左右实现零排放。

an enormous but achievable challenge.

这是一个艰巨却能够实现的目标。

The information presented here is from the Climate Action Tracker,

这里的数据均来自 气候行动监测组（Climate Action Tracker），

a project that monitors national commitments and actions

他们监测各国对此作出的承诺和举措，

and is current as of the 1st of June, 2021.

以下是截至 2021 年 6 月 1 日的数据。

The good news has to do with 30 years from now.

好消息与 2050 年的目标有关，

Increasingly, governments are pledging to reduce emissions to net zero

越来越多的政府 承诺将在 2050 年之前

by the middle of the century,

减低碳排放至净零。

which would be in line with the Paris Agreement's goals.

这与之前巴黎气候协议定的目标一致。

There are already 131 national governments that have adopted net zero targets

目前有 131 个国家，有些已经采用 二氧化碳零排放目标，

or are discussing them.

有些尚在商讨待定。

Those targets would cover 73 percent

这些目标减零的排放气体

of current global greenhouse gas emissions.

占目前全球气体排放量的73%。

They include the European Union, which has enshrined this goal into law,

这些国家地区里， 包括已经立法明确的欧盟，

the UK, South Africa, Japan, South Korea,

还有英联邦、南非、日本、韩国、

Canada, China and the United States,

加拿大、中国和美国，

as well as several small island nations.

以及一些小的岛屿国家。

However, the currently implemented actions of all countries

然而，所有国家目前实施的举措

will do little more than stop an increase in future emissions.

仅仅是停止未来排放量的增加。

That will put us on a trajectory

而这样的措施将会导致我们的地球

for an estimated warming of 2.9 degrees Celsius by 2100,

在 2100 年温度预计上涨 2.9 摄氏度，

and lead to catastrophic climate change.

进而引发足以让人类灭顶的气候改变。

Under the Paris Agreement,

在巴黎气候协定中，

countries have to put forward formal, updated commitments

各国需要提出最新的官方承诺举措

to achieve the global target.

来实现全球气温控制的目标。

In the last few months,

过去的几个月，

the EU, the US, China and others have done so,

欧盟、美国、中国 和其他国家提出了自己的方案，

and we estimate that their full implementation

据预测，这些全部的举措

could bring us on a path to the warming of 2.4 degrees Celsius by 2100.

可以实现在 2100 年前 温度上升 2.4 摄氏度。

Already better, but still far from 1.5.

这是个不错的结果， 但离 1.5 摄氏度的目标还很远。

There is a more optimistic case.

还有一个更乐观的假设，

Let's assume all the commitments and stated intentions become policies,

就是假设这些政府作出的所有承诺 和公布的计划都制定为政策，

and are followed by actions,

并且能够付诸实践，

including the net zero targets under discussion

包括还在讨论的温室气体零排放目标，

or not yet officially submitted under the Paris Agreement.

这一点还未在巴黎协定中正式提交。

This would put the world on a trajectory

温室气体零排放将会让地球温度

to keep global warming to 2 degrees Celsius by 2100.

在 2100 年前仅上升 2 摄氏度。

Additional increases in ambition

不止于此，我们更想做到，

could bring the 1.5-degree Celsius target, theoretically, within reach.

理论上可实现的 1.5 摄氏度的目标。

But that's in theory.

但这只是理论上的可能性，

The actual short-term actions and plans don't yet match the long-term intentions,

实际短期的措施计划 还不能服务于长期目标，

and that's the bad news.

这正是糟糕的地方。

No one will be surprised by the fact that short-term actions,

没有人会对短期措施的效果吃惊，

which may determine electoral outcomes,

这可能决定了气候大会选举的结果，

are more timid than long-term commitments

比起需要未来政府执行的措施，

that will fall on future governments to execute.

这些短期举措非常的保守有限。

But it is the next nine years

但下一个九年将决定，

that will determine if we can achieve the target of net zero by mid-century.

我们是否能在 2050 年 实现温室气体零排放。

The first milestone is 2030.

2030 年是第一个里程碑，

By then, emissions will need to be halved

届时，温室气体的排放需要减半

for the world to be brought onto a 1.5-degree Celsius pathway.

才能使地球温度上升控制在 1.5 摄氏度。

If we miss the 2030 milestone,

如果我们在 2030 年 不能实现排放减半的目标，

making up for it later will be increasingly expensive or even impossible.

之后要付出越来越高的代价 才能够实现这一点，

甚至永远不可能再实现。

But with currently proposed actions,

然而，随着近期各国应对举措的提出，

even the targets announced in recent months,

以及近几个月排放目标的公布，

global emissions would barely stabilize until 2030,

全球温室气体排放几乎 不可能在 2030 年前稳定下来，

leaving an enormous gap.

这无疑与巴黎气候协定的目标相去甚远。

It is not in the spirit of the Paris Agreement

这并不是巴黎气候协定的内核——

for countries to simply resubmit the same target as five years prior,

仅仅简单地让各国重新提交 与五年前相同的目标，

or to offer different targets

或者提交根本不会带来低排放的

that don't actually lead to lower emissions.

其他举措目标。

This is, unfortunately, the case so far

不幸地是，目前为止，

for Australia, Mexico, Russia, Singapore, Switzerland and Vietnam.

澳大利亚、墨西哥、俄罗斯、 新加坡、瑞士和越南，

South Korea and New Zealand say they will come up with new targets

韩国和新西兰都表示 他们将提出新的目标，

before the end of the year.

在今年年底之前。

Perhaps the worst case is Brazil,

可能最糟糕的是巴西，

whose new stated target would lead to emissions increasing

他们新公布的目标 将会导致温室气体排放的增加

from its earlier promise.

比起他们之前的承诺。

These countries need to reconsider their decisions.

这些国家需要重新考虑他们的决定。

And finally, there are still dozens of countries

最终依然有几十个国家

that have not made a new announcement for 2030,

没有做出 2030 目标声明，

such as Indonesia and India,

像印度尼西亚和印度，

though they do still have some time before the COP26 Conference

尽管在第 26 届联合国 气候变化大会（COP26）之前，

to formalize their proposals.

他们还有时间去考量敲定自己的提议。

So in summary, the picture is more hopeful than ever,

总体来说，情况比过去要更加乐观，

if we look at the stated 2050 goals,

如果我们看的只是 2050 的声明目标，

but the actual short-term climate actions won't get us there.

但事实上短期气候措施 并不能实现这个目标。

There is good news elsewhere.

在其他方面也有一些好消息。

We can sometimes be surprised

有时我们会吃惊于

by the speed at which an entire sector can flip.

整个国际社会对气候问题的转变速度，

For example, renewable energy is the new normal

比如，可再生能源现已成为全世界

for new power production capacity worldwide,

电力生产的新常规产能，

because it's cheaper.

因为可再生能源花费更低。

Many major automakers are transitioning to electric cars,

很多大型汽车制造商 正在转型电动汽车生产，

and the financial sector seems to have started the movement

财政部门看来已经开始行动，

out of investing in fossil fuels.

撤出化石燃料行业的投资。

Also, the first countries have announced

同时已经有第一个国家宣布

they will stop extracting fossil fuels entirely.

将会完全停止对化石燃料的开采。

The world needs to find that kind of serious, bold leadership

这个世界需要这种 严肃应对、大胆果敢的领导者，

to bring us onto a safer path.

带领全球各国走到更安全的道路上。

And keep in mind that if we don't reach 1.5 degrees Celsius,

重要的是，如果我们 不能实现 1.5 摄氏度的目标，

then the next target isn't two degrees, but 1.6 degrees Celsius.

那么下一个目标就不是 2 摄氏度，而是 1.6 摄氏度。

The impacts of global warming already being felt

全人类已经感知到，气候变暖的影响

will hit in a nonlinear, exponential way.

将会以一种非线性的、 指数增长的方式冲击我们。

So when it comes to climate change,

所以就气候变暖而言，

every year, every action and every tenth of a degree matters.

每一年，每一个举动， 每 0.1 度都至关重要。