Climate Action Tracker: The state of the climate crisis in 2021 | TED

155,012 views ・ 2021-10-01

TED


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譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Helen Chang
00:07
2021 is a crucial year in the fight against climate change.
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在對抗氣候變遷上, 2021 是關鍵的一年。
00:11
According to the Paris Agreement timetable, this year,
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根據巴黎協定的時間表, 今年政府必須做出重要決策,
00:13
governments must make key decisions on updating their climate action plans.
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決定如何更新其行動計畫。
00:18
Are we on track to meet the goal of limiting global warming
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我們是否正朝向將全球暖化限制在
00:21
to 1.5 degrees Celsius?
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攝氏 1.5 度之內的目標邁進?
00:23
There is good news and bad news, and the details matter,
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有好消息也有壞消息, 且細節很重要,
00:26
so let's explore the data.
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所以,咱們來探討一下資料。
00:29
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement,
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在 2015 年的巴黎協定下,
00:30
all countries agreed to hold the global average temperature increase
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所有國家皆同意要讓 全球平均溫度增加控制在
00:34
well below 2 degrees Celsius,
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攝氏 2 度以內,
00:36
and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
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並且盡力而為將之限制在 攝氏 1.5 度以下。
00:41
Scientists, including the IPCC,
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科學家,包括政府間 氣候變化專門委員會,
00:43
tell us that to meet this 1.5-degree warming limit,
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告訴我們,若要達成 1.5 度的暖化限制,
00:46
global greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut in half by 2030,
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2030 年時全球的 溫室氣體排放必須減半,
00:50
and carbon dioxide emissions need to reach net zero by around 2050 --
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2050 年時,二氧化碳排放 則要達到淨值為 0,
00:55
an enormous but achievable challenge.
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這是個巨大但有機會達成的挑戰。
00:59
The information presented here is from the Climate Action Tracker,
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這裡展示的資訊是來自 氣候行動追蹤組織計畫,
01:02
a project that monitors national commitments and actions
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這個計畫旨在監管 國家的承諾和行動,
01:05
and is current as of the 1st of June, 2021.
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目前的資料是截至 2021 年 6 月 1 日的資料。
01:09
The good news has to do with 30 years from now.
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好消息和 30 年後的狀況有關。
01:11
Increasingly, governments are pledging to reduce emissions to net zero
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各國政府漸漸開始承諾 要在這個世紀中將排放淨值減至 0,
01:15
by the middle of the century,
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01:16
which would be in line with the Paris Agreement's goals.
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這與巴黎協定的目標一致。
01:19
There are already 131 national governments that have adopted net zero targets
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已經有 131 國的政府
採納淨零目標或正在討論中。
01:24
or are discussing them.
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01:25
Those targets would cover 73 percent
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那些目標可以處理目前 全球溫室氣體排放的 73%。
01:27
of current global greenhouse gas emissions.
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01:30
They include the European Union, which has enshrined this goal into law,
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參與者包括歐盟,目前 正在將此目標納入法律,
01:34
the UK, South Africa, Japan, South Korea,
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還有英國、南非、日本、南韓、
01:37
Canada, China and the United States,
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加拿大、中國,和美國,
01:40
as well as several small island nations.
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以及數個小型島國。
01:43
However, the currently implemented actions of all countries
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然而,目前所有國家已經實施的行動
01:46
will do little more than stop an increase in future emissions.
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至多只能做到阻止 未來的排放再增加。
01:50
That will put us on a trajectory
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照這樣走下去,
估計在 2100 年, 溫度再暖化攝氏 2.9 度。
01:52
for an estimated warming of 2.9 degrees Celsius by 2100,
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01:56
and lead to catastrophic climate change.
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會導致災難性的氣候變遷。
01:59
Under the Paris Agreement,
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根據巴黎協定,
各國要提出正式、最新的承諾, 保證達成全球目標。
02:01
countries have to put forward formal, updated commitments
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02:03
to achieve the global target.
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02:05
In the last few months,
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在過去幾個月,歐盟、美國、 中國,和其他國家都這麼做了,
02:06
the EU, the US, China and others have done so,
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02:09
and we estimate that their full implementation
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我們估計,如果 這些承諾能完全實現,
02:11
could bring us on a path to the warming of 2.4 degrees Celsius by 2100.
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就能協助我們邁向 2100 年 暖化攝氏 2.4 度的目標。
02:16
Already better, but still far from 1.5.
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已經比較好了, 但和 1.5 度還差很遠。
02:20
There is a more optimistic case.
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有一個比較樂觀的情況。
02:22
Let's assume all the commitments and stated intentions become policies,
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假設所有承諾和提出的目標 都被制訂為政策,
02:26
and are followed by actions,
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且後續有採取行動,
02:28
including the net zero targets under discussion
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包括在討論中的淨零目標,
02:31
or not yet officially submitted under the Paris Agreement.
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或者在巴黎協定下 尚未正式提交的目標。
02:34
This would put the world on a trajectory
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這樣就能夠讓世界有機會
02:36
to keep global warming to 2 degrees Celsius by 2100.
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將全球暖化在 2100 年時 能低於攝氏 2 度。
02:40
Additional increases in ambition
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如果目標有再額外增加,
02:41
could bring the 1.5-degree Celsius target, theoretically, within reach.
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理論上,會讓攝氏 1.5 度的目標成為可能。
02:46
But that's in theory.
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但那是理論。
實際的短期行動和計畫還沒能搭配上
02:48
The actual short-term actions and plans don't yet match the long-term intentions,
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長期的目標,
02:52
and that's the bad news.
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那是壞消息。
02:54
No one will be surprised by the fact that short-term actions,
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大家都能意料到,
會影響選舉結果的短期行動
02:57
which may determine electoral outcomes,
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02:59
are more timid than long-term commitments
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會比長期承諾更讓人怯步,
03:01
that will fall on future governments to execute.
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因為長期承諾的執行 是未來政府的責任。
03:05
But it is the next nine years
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但,接下來的 9 年
03:07
that will determine if we can achieve the target of net zero by mid-century.
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會決定我們能否在世紀中 達到淨零的目標。
03:11
The first milestone is 2030.
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第一個里程碑是 2030 年。
03:13
By then, emissions will need to be halved
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那時,排放必須要減半,
03:15
for the world to be brought onto a 1.5-degree Celsius pathway.
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世界才有可能有機會 達到攝氏 1.5 度的目標。
03:20
If we miss the 2030 milestone,
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如果我們錯過了 2030 的里程碑,
03:22
making up for it later will be increasingly expensive or even impossible.
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後續再彌補的代價會更高,
甚至可能無法做到。
03:27
But with currently proposed actions,
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但,就目前提出的行動來說,
03:29
even the targets announced in recent months,
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連近幾個月宣佈的目標也納入,
03:31
global emissions would barely stabilize until 2030,
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全球排放可能要到 2030 年才勉強會穩定,
03:35
leaving an enormous gap.
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這會造成巨大的落差。
03:37
It is not in the spirit of the Paris Agreement
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巴黎協定的精神並不是
03:39
for countries to simply resubmit the same target as five years prior,
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要國家重新提出 和 5 年前一樣的目標。
或者提出對減少排放 沒有幫助的不同目標,
03:44
or to offer different targets
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03:45
that don't actually lead to lower emissions.
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03:48
This is, unfortunately, the case so far
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很不幸,這是目前的狀況,
03:50
for Australia, Mexico, Russia, Singapore, Switzerland and Vietnam.
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澳洲、墨西哥、俄國、 新加坡、瑞士、越南皆是如此。
03:55
South Korea and New Zealand say they will come up with new targets
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南韓和紐西蘭說它們會在 年底之前提出新的目標。
03:58
before the end of the year.
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04:00
Perhaps the worst case is Brazil,
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狀況最糟糕的可能是巴西,
04:02
whose new stated target would lead to emissions increasing
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該國新提出的目標會導致排放量
比先前承諾的更高。
04:06
from its earlier promise.
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04:08
These countries need to reconsider their decisions.
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這些國家得要重新考量它們的決策。
04:12
And finally, there are still dozens of countries
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最後,還有數十個國家
04:14
that have not made a new announcement for 2030,
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尚未提出 2030 年的新通告,
04:17
such as Indonesia and India,
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比如印尼和印度,
04:19
though they do still have some time before the COP26 Conference
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不過,它們在第 26 屆 氣候變遷高峰會前還有時間
04:22
to formalize their proposals.
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正式提出提案。
04:24
So in summary, the picture is more hopeful than ever,
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總的來說,如果看 各國提出的 2050 目標,
04:27
if we look at the stated 2050 goals,
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局面比以往都更有希望,
04:30
but the actual short-term climate actions won't get us there.
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但實際短期的氣候行動 無法讓我們走到那一步。
04:34
There is good news elsewhere.
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別處還有好消息。
04:35
We can sometimes be surprised
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有時,我們真無法料想 整個部門翻轉的速度能有多快。
04:37
by the speed at which an entire sector can flip.
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04:40
For example, renewable energy is the new normal
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比如,就全球的新發電量來說,
04:42
for new power production capacity worldwide,
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可再生能源是新的常態,
04:45
because it's cheaper.
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因為比較便宜。
04:46
Many major automakers are transitioning to electric cars,
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許多大型汽車製造商 正在轉型生產電動車,
04:50
and the financial sector seems to have started the movement
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而財政部門似乎要開始
04:53
out of investing in fossil fuels.
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脫離對化石燃料的投資。
04:55
Also, the first countries have announced
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此外,第一世界國家也已宣佈 它們會完全停止提煉化石燃料。
04:57
they will stop extracting fossil fuels entirely.
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05:00
The world needs to find that kind of serious, bold leadership
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世界需要找到那種 認真、大膽的領導,
05:03
to bring us onto a safer path.
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將我們帶上更安全的道路。
切記,如果我們無法 做到攝氏 1.5 度,
05:06
And keep in mind that if we don't reach 1.5 degrees Celsius,
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05:09
then the next target isn't two degrees, but 1.6 degrees Celsius.
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那麼,下一個目標不是 2 度,
而是攝氏 1.6 度。
05:14
The impacts of global warming already being felt
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已經可以感覺到全球暖化的影響,
05:17
will hit in a nonlinear, exponential way.
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這些影響將會以非線性、 指數的方式衝擊我們。
05:21
So when it comes to climate change,
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就氣候變遷來說,
05:23
every year, every action and every tenth of a degree matters.
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每一年、每一個行動、
每 0.1 度都很重要。
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