Climate Action Tracker: The state of the climate crisis in 2021 | TED

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Helen Chang

2021 is a crucial year in the fight against climate change.

在對抗氣候變遷上， 2021 是關鍵的一年。

According to the Paris Agreement timetable, this year,

根據巴黎協定的時間表， 今年政府必須做出重要決策，

governments must make key decisions on updating their climate action plans.

決定如何更新其行動計畫。

Are we on track to meet the goal of limiting global warming

我們是否正朝向將全球暖化限制在

to 1.5 degrees Celsius?

攝氏 1.5 度之內的目標邁進？

There is good news and bad news, and the details matter,

有好消息也有壞消息， 且細節很重要，

so let's explore the data.

所以，咱們來探討一下資料。

Under the 2015 Paris Agreement,

在 2015 年的巴黎協定下，

all countries agreed to hold the global average temperature increase

所有國家皆同意要讓 全球平均溫度增加控制在

well below 2 degrees Celsius,

攝氏 2 度以內，

and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

並且盡力而為將之限制在 攝氏 1.5 度以下。

Scientists, including the IPCC,

科學家，包括政府間 氣候變化專門委員會，

tell us that to meet this 1.5-degree warming limit,

告訴我們，若要達成 1.5 度的暖化限制，

global greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut in half by 2030,

2030 年時全球的 溫室氣體排放必須減半，

and carbon dioxide emissions need to reach net zero by around 2050 --

2050 年時，二氧化碳排放 則要達到淨值為 0，

an enormous but achievable challenge.

這是個巨大但有機會達成的挑戰。

The information presented here is from the Climate Action Tracker,

這裡展示的資訊是來自 氣候行動追蹤組織計畫，

a project that monitors national commitments and actions

這個計畫旨在監管 國家的承諾和行動，

and is current as of the 1st of June, 2021.

目前的資料是截至 2021 年 6 月 1 日的資料。

The good news has to do with 30 years from now.

好消息和 30 年後的狀況有關。

Increasingly, governments are pledging to reduce emissions to net zero

各國政府漸漸開始承諾 要在這個世紀中將排放淨值減至 0，

by the middle of the century,

which would be in line with the Paris Agreement's goals.

這與巴黎協定的目標一致。

There are already 131 national governments that have adopted net zero targets

已經有 131 國的政府

採納淨零目標或正在討論中。

or are discussing them.

Those targets would cover 73 percent

那些目標可以處理目前 全球溫室氣體排放的 73%。

of current global greenhouse gas emissions.

They include the European Union, which has enshrined this goal into law,

參與者包括歐盟，目前 正在將此目標納入法律，

the UK, South Africa, Japan, South Korea,

還有英國、南非、日本、南韓、

Canada, China and the United States,

加拿大、中國，和美國，

as well as several small island nations.

以及數個小型島國。

However, the currently implemented actions of all countries

然而，目前所有國家已經實施的行動

will do little more than stop an increase in future emissions.

至多只能做到阻止 未來的排放再增加。

That will put us on a trajectory

照這樣走下去，

估計在 2100 年， 溫度再暖化攝氏 2.9 度。

for an estimated warming of 2.9 degrees Celsius by 2100,

and lead to catastrophic climate change.

會導致災難性的氣候變遷。

Under the Paris Agreement,

根據巴黎協定，

各國要提出正式、最新的承諾， 保證達成全球目標。

countries have to put forward formal, updated commitments

to achieve the global target.

In the last few months,

在過去幾個月，歐盟、美國、 中國，和其他國家都這麼做了，

the EU, the US, China and others have done so,

and we estimate that their full implementation

我們估計，如果 這些承諾能完全實現，

could bring us on a path to the warming of 2.4 degrees Celsius by 2100.

就能協助我們邁向 2100 年 暖化攝氏 2.4 度的目標。

Already better, but still far from 1.5.

已經比較好了， 但和 1.5 度還差很遠。

There is a more optimistic case.

有一個比較樂觀的情況。

Let's assume all the commitments and stated intentions become policies,

假設所有承諾和提出的目標 都被制訂為政策，

and are followed by actions,

且後續有採取行動，

including the net zero targets under discussion

包括在討論中的淨零目標，

or not yet officially submitted under the Paris Agreement.

或者在巴黎協定下 尚未正式提交的目標。

This would put the world on a trajectory

這樣就能夠讓世界有機會

to keep global warming to 2 degrees Celsius by 2100.

將全球暖化在 2100 年時 能低於攝氏 2 度。

Additional increases in ambition

如果目標有再額外增加，

could bring the 1.5-degree Celsius target, theoretically, within reach.

理論上，會讓攝氏 1.5 度的目標成為可能。

But that's in theory.

但那是理論。

實際的短期行動和計畫還沒能搭配上

The actual short-term actions and plans don't yet match the long-term intentions,

長期的目標，

and that's the bad news.

那是壞消息。

No one will be surprised by the fact that short-term actions,

大家都能意料到，

會影響選舉結果的短期行動

which may determine electoral outcomes,

are more timid than long-term commitments

會比長期承諾更讓人怯步，

that will fall on future governments to execute.

因為長期承諾的執行 是未來政府的責任。

But it is the next nine years

但，接下來的 9 年

that will determine if we can achieve the target of net zero by mid-century.

會決定我們能否在世紀中 達到淨零的目標。

The first milestone is 2030.

第一個里程碑是 2030 年。

By then, emissions will need to be halved

那時，排放必須要減半，

for the world to be brought onto a 1.5-degree Celsius pathway.

世界才有可能有機會 達到攝氏 1.5 度的目標。

If we miss the 2030 milestone,

如果我們錯過了 2030 的里程碑，

making up for it later will be increasingly expensive or even impossible.

後續再彌補的代價會更高，

甚至可能無法做到。

But with currently proposed actions,

但，就目前提出的行動來說，

even the targets announced in recent months,

連近幾個月宣佈的目標也納入，

global emissions would barely stabilize until 2030,

全球排放可能要到 2030 年才勉強會穩定，

leaving an enormous gap.

這會造成巨大的落差。

It is not in the spirit of the Paris Agreement

巴黎協定的精神並不是

for countries to simply resubmit the same target as five years prior,

要國家重新提出 和 5 年前一樣的目標。

或者提出對減少排放 沒有幫助的不同目標，

or to offer different targets

that don't actually lead to lower emissions.

This is, unfortunately, the case so far

很不幸，這是目前的狀況，

for Australia, Mexico, Russia, Singapore, Switzerland and Vietnam.

澳洲、墨西哥、俄國、 新加坡、瑞士、越南皆是如此。

South Korea and New Zealand say they will come up with new targets

南韓和紐西蘭說它們會在 年底之前提出新的目標。

before the end of the year.

Perhaps the worst case is Brazil,

狀況最糟糕的可能是巴西，

whose new stated target would lead to emissions increasing

該國新提出的目標會導致排放量

比先前承諾的更高。

from its earlier promise.

These countries need to reconsider their decisions.

這些國家得要重新考量它們的決策。

And finally, there are still dozens of countries

最後，還有數十個國家

that have not made a new announcement for 2030,

尚未提出 2030 年的新通告，

such as Indonesia and India,

比如印尼和印度，

though they do still have some time before the COP26 Conference

不過，它們在第 26 屆 氣候變遷高峰會前還有時間

to formalize their proposals.

正式提出提案。

So in summary, the picture is more hopeful than ever,

總的來說，如果看 各國提出的 2050 目標，

if we look at the stated 2050 goals,

局面比以往都更有希望，

but the actual short-term climate actions won't get us there.

但實際短期的氣候行動 無法讓我們走到那一步。

There is good news elsewhere.

別處還有好消息。

We can sometimes be surprised

有時，我們真無法料想 整個部門翻轉的速度能有多快。

by the speed at which an entire sector can flip.

For example, renewable energy is the new normal

比如，就全球的新發電量來說，

for new power production capacity worldwide,

可再生能源是新的常態，

because it's cheaper.

因為比較便宜。

Many major automakers are transitioning to electric cars,

許多大型汽車製造商 正在轉型生產電動車，

and the financial sector seems to have started the movement

而財政部門似乎要開始

out of investing in fossil fuels.

脫離對化石燃料的投資。

Also, the first countries have announced

此外，第一世界國家也已宣佈 它們會完全停止提煉化石燃料。

they will stop extracting fossil fuels entirely.

The world needs to find that kind of serious, bold leadership

世界需要找到那種 認真、大膽的領導，

to bring us onto a safer path.

將我們帶上更安全的道路。

切記，如果我們無法 做到攝氏 1.5 度，

And keep in mind that if we don't reach 1.5 degrees Celsius,

then the next target isn't two degrees, but 1.6 degrees Celsius.

那麼，下一個目標不是 2 度，

而是攝氏 1.6 度。

The impacts of global warming already being felt

已經可以感覺到全球暖化的影響，

will hit in a nonlinear, exponential way.

這些影響將會以非線性、 指數的方式衝擊我們。

So when it comes to climate change,

就氣候變遷來說，

every year, every action and every tenth of a degree matters.

每一年、每一個行動、

每 0.1 度都很重要。