Climate Action Tracker: The state of the climate crisis in 2021 | TED

157,033 views ・ 2021-10-01

TED


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2021 is a crucial year in the fight against climate change.
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According to the Paris Agreement timetable, this year,
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governments must make key decisions on updating their climate action plans.
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Are we on track to meet the goal of limiting global warming
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to 1.5 degrees Celsius?
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There is good news and bad news, and the details matter,
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so let's explore the data.
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Under the 2015 Paris Agreement,
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all countries agreed to hold the global average temperature increase
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well below 2 degrees Celsius,
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and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
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Scientists, including the IPCC,
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tell us that to meet this 1.5-degree warming limit,
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global greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut in half by 2030,
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and carbon dioxide emissions need to reach net zero by around 2050 --
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an enormous but achievable challenge.
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The information presented here is from the Climate Action Tracker,
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a project that monitors national commitments and actions
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and is current as of the 1st of June, 2021.
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The good news has to do with 30 years from now.
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Increasingly, governments are pledging to reduce emissions to net zero
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by the middle of the century,
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which would be in line with the Paris Agreement's goals.
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There are already 131 national governments that have adopted net zero targets
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or are discussing them.
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Those targets would cover 73 percent
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of current global greenhouse gas emissions.
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They include the European Union, which has enshrined this goal into law,
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the UK, South Africa, Japan, South Korea,
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Canada, China and the United States,
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as well as several small island nations.
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However, the currently implemented actions of all countries
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will do little more than stop an increase in future emissions.
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That will put us on a trajectory
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for an estimated warming of 2.9 degrees Celsius by 2100,
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and lead to catastrophic climate change.
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Under the Paris Agreement,
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countries have to put forward formal, updated commitments
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to achieve the global target.
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In the last few months,
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the EU, the US, China and others have done so,
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and we estimate that their full implementation
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could bring us on a path to the warming of 2.4 degrees Celsius by 2100.
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Already better, but still far from 1.5.
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There is a more optimistic case.
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Let's assume all the commitments and stated intentions become policies,
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and are followed by actions,
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including the net zero targets under discussion
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or not yet officially submitted under the Paris Agreement.
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This would put the world on a trajectory
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to keep global warming to 2 degrees Celsius by 2100.
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Additional increases in ambition
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could bring the 1.5-degree Celsius target, theoretically, within reach.
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But that's in theory.
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The actual short-term actions and plans don't yet match the long-term intentions,
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and that's the bad news.
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No one will be surprised by the fact that short-term actions,
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which may determine electoral outcomes,
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are more timid than long-term commitments
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that will fall on future governments to execute.
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But it is the next nine years
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that will determine if we can achieve the target of net zero by mid-century.
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The first milestone is 2030.
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By then, emissions will need to be halved
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for the world to be brought onto a 1.5-degree Celsius pathway.
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If we miss the 2030 milestone,
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making up for it later will be increasingly expensive or even impossible.
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But with currently proposed actions,
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even the targets announced in recent months,
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global emissions would barely stabilize until 2030,
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leaving an enormous gap.
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It is not in the spirit of the Paris Agreement
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for countries to simply resubmit the same target as five years prior,
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or to offer different targets
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that don't actually lead to lower emissions.
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This is, unfortunately, the case so far
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for Australia, Mexico, Russia, Singapore, Switzerland and Vietnam.
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South Korea and New Zealand say they will come up with new targets
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before the end of the year.
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Perhaps the worst case is Brazil,
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whose new stated target would lead to emissions increasing
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from its earlier promise.
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These countries need to reconsider their decisions.
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And finally, there are still dozens of countries
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that have not made a new announcement for 2030,
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such as Indonesia and India,
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though they do still have some time before the COP26 Conference
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to formalize their proposals.
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So in summary, the picture is more hopeful than ever,
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if we look at the stated 2050 goals,
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but the actual short-term climate actions won't get us there.
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There is good news elsewhere.
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We can sometimes be surprised
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by the speed at which an entire sector can flip.
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For example, renewable energy is the new normal
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for new power production capacity worldwide,
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because it's cheaper.
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Many major automakers are transitioning to electric cars,
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and the financial sector seems to have started the movement
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out of investing in fossil fuels.
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Also, the first countries have announced
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they will stop extracting fossil fuels entirely.
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The world needs to find that kind of serious, bold leadership
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to bring us onto a safer path.
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And keep in mind that if we don't reach 1.5 degrees Celsius,
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then the next target isn't two degrees, but 1.6 degrees Celsius.
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The impacts of global warming already being felt
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will hit in a nonlinear, exponential way.
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So when it comes to climate change,
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every year, every action and every tenth of a degree matters.
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