Mike O'Sullivan: The end of globalization (and the beginning of something new) | TED

Prevodilac: Una Pilipović Lektor: Ivana Korom

We are at the end of globalization.

Stigli smo do kraja globalizacije.

We've taken globalization for granted,

Uzimali smo je zdravo za gotovo

and as it drifts into history, we're going to miss it.

i faliće nam kad se počne gubiti u prošlosti.

The second wave of globalization began in the early '90s,

Drugi talas globalizacije počeo je početkom devetesetih

and it delivered a great deal.

i mnogo nam je dobrog doneo.

Billions of people rose out of poverty.

Milijarde ljudi izašle su iz siromaštva.

More impressively, wealth per adult in countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh

A bogatstvo po odrasloj osobi u državama kao Vijetnamu i Bangladešu

increased by over six times in the last 20 years.

povećalo se šest puta u proteklih dvadeset godina.

The number of democracies rose,

Broj demokratija se povećao

and countries as diverse as Chile, Malaysia, Estonia,

a države kao Čile, Malezija i Estonija

held free and fair elections.

održale su slobodne i poštene izbore.

The role of women improved in many parts of the world,

Uloga žena poboljšala se u mnogim delovima sveta,

if you look at wage equality in countries like Spain,

kada pogledamo jednake plate u državama kao Španiji,

or access to education in countries like Saudi Arabia.

ili pristup školovanju u državama kao Saudijskoj Arabiji.

Economically, supply chains spread like webs around the world,

Ekonomiski: lanci snabdevanja šire se kao mreža po celom svetu,

with car parts criss-crossing borders

pa delovi automobila prvo prelaze granice

before the final product came into place.

pre nego što završe u krajnjem proizvodu.

And globalization has also changed the way we live now.

Globalizacija je, takođe, promenila način na koji živimo danas.

It's changed our diets.

Promenila nam je ishranu.

It's changed how we communicate, how we consume news and entertainment,

Promenila nam je način komunikacije, kako konzumiramo novosti i zabavu,

how we travel and how we work.

kako putujemo i kako radimo.

But now, globalization is on its deathbed.

Ali sada, globalizacija umire.

It's run into the limitations of its own success:

Došla je do granica svog uspeha:

inequality and new, record levels of indebtedness --

nejednakost i novi, rekordni dugovi -

for example, world debt-to-GDP

na primer, svetski dugovi na odnosu na BDP

is now pushing levels not seen since the Napoleonic Wars 200 years ago --

viši su sada nego za vreme Napoleonovih ratova pre dvesta godina -

show us that the advantages of globalization

pokazuju nam da su prednosti globalizacije

have been misdirected.

pogrešno usmerene.

The Global Financial Crisis was the result of this mismanagement,

Svetska finansijska kriza bila je rezultat toga,

and since then policymakers

i od tada zakonodavci

have done little but contain,

pokušavaju da spreče pogoršanje,

rather than solve,

a ne da reše,

the problems of our age.

probleme našeg doba.

Now, some highly globalized countries such as Ireland and the Netherlands,

Jako globalizovane države poput Irske i Holandije

have managed to improve income inequality in their countries

uspele su da smanje nejednakost u svojim državama

by better distributing the bounties of globalization

tako što su bolje raspodelile darove globalizacije,

through higher taxes and social welfare programs.

jer su povećale poreze i uvele socijalnu pomoć.

Other countries have not been as good.

Drugim državama nije toliko dobro uspelo.

Russia and, especially, the United States,

Rusija i, pogotovo, SAD

have extreme levels of wealth inequality,

imaju ekstremne nivoe nejednakosti bogatstva,

more extreme even than during the time of the Roman Empire.

čak i gore nego za vreme Rimskog carstva.

And this has convinced many people that globalization is against them,

A to je mnoge ljude ubedilo da globalizacija nije na njihovoj strani

and that the bounties of globalization

i da darovi globalizacije

have not been shared with the many.

nisu podeljeni sa mnogima.

And now, in 2020,

I sada, u 2020,

we're confronted by the pandemic,

borimo se sa pandemijom

which has shaken the ground under us

koja nas je potresla

and further exposed the frailties

i otkrila slabosti

of the globalized world order.

globalizovanog sveta.

In past international crises,

U prošlim svetskim krizama,

most of them economic or geopolitical,

pretežno ekonomskim i geopolitičkim,

there has usually ultimately been a sense of a committee to save the world.

mislili smo da postoji grupa ljudi koji će da spasi svet.

Leaders and leading nations would come together.

Da će vođe i glavne nacije da se spoje.

But this time, uniquely,

Ali ovaj put, prvi put,

there has been no such collaboration.

nema takve saradnje.

Against a backdrop of trade wars,

Sada smo u trgovinskom ratu,

some countries like the US have outbid others for masks.

i neke države poput SAD-a nadmašile su ponude drugih za maske.

There's been hacking of vaccine programs,

Hakovani su programi za vakcine,

and a common enemy, the pandemic,

a zajedničkom neprijatelju, pandemiji,

has not been met with a common response.

još se nismo zajedno obratili.

So any hope that we might have a world vaccine

Tako da je svaka nada da ćemo svi na svetu imati vakcinu,

or a world recovery program is in vain.

ili da ćemo naći zajednički plan za oporavak, uzalud.

So now we're at the end of an era in history,

Sada smo na kraju jednog doba,

an era that began with the fall of communism,

koje je počelo padom komunizma,

that set in train the flow of trade,

koji je pokrenuo tok trgovine,

of finance, of people

finansija, naroda

and of ideas,

i ideja

and that now comes to an end

i to se sada bliži kraju

with events like the shutting down of democracy in Hong Kong.

događajima kao što je slom demokratije u Hongkongu.

The question now is, what's next?

Pitanje je, šta nas sada čeka?

Well, if the era we're leaving

Pa, ako je doba iz koga izlazimo

was characterized by a connected world

karakterizovano povezanim svetom

trying to shrink and come together

koji pokušava da se smanji i zbliži

on the basis of economic goals

zbog ekonomskih ciljeva

and geography,

i geografije,

the new world order

novi svetski poredak

will be defined by rival, distinct and different ways of doing things,

biće karakterisan konkurencijom i novim drugačijim pristupima,

and ultimately collaboration based on values,

i saradnjom zasnovanom na vrednostima,

and this new world order

a na tom novom svetskom poretku

is very much a work in progress.

se već radi.

"Disorder" might be a better word,

Možda je "nered" bolja reč,

and it has been for some time.

i to je već duže vreme.

But think appropriately

Ali zamislite

of great sheets of ice breaking apart,

velike slojeve leda koji se odvoje,

some drifting away

i otplutaju,

and others later reforming.

a neki se kasnije opet spoje.

And the internet is a bit like this.

I internet je sličan tome.

It used to be global.

Nekada je bio svetski.

Google used to have 30 percent of the market share in China,

Gugl je imao 30 odsto udela na kineskom tržištu,

and now it has close to zero percent.

a sada ima blizu nula.

And the big regions of the world

I veliki delovi sveta

increasingly look at the internet

sve više posmatraju internet

from a values-based point of view.

iz perspektive vrednosti.

America values tech innovation and its financial rewards.

SAD ceni tehnološke napretke i finansijske dobitke.

China takes a political view of the internet

Kina gleda internet sa političkog stajališta

and cordons it off,

pa ga zato ograđuje i izoluje,

and at the same time China has this incredible e-commerce economy

ali Kina istovremeno ima neverovatnu e-trgovinu,

that no other country has come close to matching.

kakvu nijedna država nema, ni sličnu.

And then there's Europe,

Onda imamo Evropu,

and in Europe a conversation about the internet

a u Evropi su razgovori o internetu

is effectively a conversation about data and privacy.

pretežno razgovori o podacima i privatnosti.

So there you have it:

I eto ga:

one common problem,

Jedan zajednički problem

and three increasingly different, competing views.

a tri različita i suprotna gledišta.

This shows us that rival ideologies

To nam pokazuje da će nas suprotne ideologije

will drive very distinct ways of doing things.

dovesti do toga da na različite načine radimo stvari.

But what about collaboration and cooperation?

A šta je sa saradnjom?

Well, I'm going to start with the example of three small countries:

Pa, počeću primerom triju malih država:

Scotland, Iceland and New Zealand.

Škotske, Islanda i Novog Zelanda.

And a couple of years ago,

Pre par godina,

they signed up to the Wellbeing Economy Governments,

pristupile su grupi "Wellbeing Economy Governments"

whose aim is to foster ecological and human well-being

čiji je cilj sačuvati ekonomiju i blagostanje čoveka

as well as economic growth.

ali i ekonomski razvoj.

Practically speaking,

Jednostavno rečeno,

these countries are already discussing things like well-being budgeting,

ove države već govore o stvarima kao što su budžet za blagostanje,

well-being-led tourism,

turizam za blagostanje,

and using the well-being framework in the fight against COVID.

i korišćenje okvira blagostanja u borbi protiv Kovida.

Now, these three countries are about as geographically distant

Ove tri države su toliko geografski udaljene

and diverse as you can get,

i različite koliko mogu da budu,

but they've come together

ali su se spojile

on the basis of a shared value,

zbog zajedničkih vrednosti,

which is a common understanding

a to je mišljenje

that there is more to government policy

da je politika vlade mnogo više

than merely GDP.

od BDP-a.

Similarly, in the future,

Slično će, ubuduće,

other small countries and city-states --

i druge male države i gradovi-države -

Singapore, Switzerland, the United Arab Emirates --

Singapur, Švajcarska i Ujedinjeni Arapski Emirati -

will find that they have more in common with each other

shvatiti da su više povezane međusobno

than with their larger neighbors.

nego sa većim komšijama.

They're all global financial centers.

One su svetski finansijski centri.

They all invest in strategic planning.

One ulažu u strateško planiranje.

And they are all geopolitical micropowers

I sve su geopolitičke mikro snage,

and will collaborate more as a result.

koje će zato više da sarađuju.

Another good example

Još jedan dobar primer

of how values, rather than geography,

zašto će vrednosti, pre nego geografija,

will increasingly shape destinies and alliances is Europe.

da oblikuju sudbine i saveze, je Evropa.

During the period of globalization,

Tokom perioda globalizacije

one of the key phenomena

jedan od glavnih fenomena

was the eastward expansion of the European Union.

bio je razvoj Evropske unije prema istoku.

From 2004, it added 13 new members,

Od 2004, 13 država joj je pristupilo,

despite the near existential crisis of the euro,

uprkos ogromnoj krizi evra,

constant pressure from Russia,

i stalnog pritiska Rusije,

and of course the trauma of Brexit.

i, naravno, traume koju je uzrokovao Bregzit.

And, like a company that has grown too fast,

I kao preduzeće koje se prebrzo razvilo,

Europe needs to stop

Evropa treba da stane

and think about where it's going

i razmisli kuda ide

and ask whether its values can steer it in the right direction.

i da se zapita da li je njene vrednosti mogu odvesti u pravom smeru.

And this is beginning to happen,

To polako počinje da se dešava,

albeit slowly.

ali sporo.

European leaders talk a lot about European values,

Evropski lideri mnogo pričaju o evropskim vrednostima,

but frankly most Europeans,

ali većina Evropljana,

be they German, Greek, Latvian or Spaniards,

bili to Nemci, Grci, Letonci ili Španci,

really don't know or have a clear idea what those shared common values

stvarno ne znaju ili nemaju jasnu predstavu koje bi te zajedničke vrednosti

are supposed to be.

trebalo da budu.

So European politicians need to do a very good job

Evropski političari zato treba mnogo da se potrude

of asking them how they feel about these common values

i da ih pitaju šta misle o tim zajedničkim vrednostima

and then communicating the answers back to them

i da im odgovore

in a clear and tangible way.

na jasan način.

And of course social media is a very important tool to deploy here.

Bitno je naravno i da se društvene mreže koriste za to.

And as Europe moves [towards] a union that's based more on values

I dok Evropa bude postajala unija zasnovana više na vrednostima,

and less on geography,

nego na geografiji,

its contours

njene granice

and those values themselves

i te same vrednosti

will increasingly be defined

biće sve više definisane

by the tension between Brussels

napetošću između Brisela

and countries like Hungary and Poland,

i državama poput Mađarske i Poljske,

who are increasingly behaving in ways

koje se sve manje ponašaju u skladu

that go against basic values

sa osnovnim vrednostima,

such as respect for democracy

kao što su poštovanje demokratije

and the rule of law.

i vladavina zakona.

The treatment of women and the LGBT community

Odnos prema ženama i LGBT populaciji

are other important markers here.

su, takođe, bitni faktori.

And in time Europe will, and should,

A s vremenom će Evropa, i treba,

tie financial aid to these countries

da veže finansijske pomoći za te države

and policy

i politiku

to their adherence to Europe's shared values.

uz poštovanje tih evropskih zajedničkih vrednosti.

And these countries, and others in Eastern Europe, and Cyprus,

A te države, i druge u istočnoj Evropi, i Kipar,

still have close financial ties to Russia and China.

i dalje su finansijski vezane za Rusiju i Kinu.

And again in time they will be forced to choose

I s vremenom moraće da se odluče

between Europe and its values

između Evrope i njenih vrednosti

and these other countries and their own distinct values.

i tih drugih država i njihovih vrednosti.

Like Europe, China is another big player

Kao i Evropa, Kina je veliki igrač

with a very distinct set of values,

sa mnogo drugačijim vrednostima

or contract between the people and the state.

i odnosom između naroda i države.

And I have to say that this set of values

Moram da kažem da se te vrednosti

is not one that is well-understood

ne razumeju dobro

in the West.

na Zapadu.

And given China's extraordinary economic and social transformation

I posmatrajući Kininu izuzetnu ekonomsku i društvenu transformaciju

in the last 30 years,

u poslednjih 30 godina,

we should really be more curious.

trebalo bi da nas više zanima.

China's values are rooted deep in its history,

Kinine vrednosti potiču iz njene istorije,

in a desire to regain the place

iz želje da se vrati na mesto,

it once enjoyed hundreds of years ago

na kom je bila pre stotina godina

when its economy was the dominant one.

kada je njena ekonomija dominirala.

Indeed, Xi Jinping talked of the China Dream

Si Đinping je govorio o "Kineskom snu"

well before Donald Trump was elected

mnogo pre nego što je Donald Tramp pobedio na izborima

with the catchphrase "Make America Great Again."

frazom "Make America Great Again."

And China's system, viewed from the outside,

Kinin sistem je, gledajući spolja,

is based around a contract or a bargain

zasnovan na ugovoru ili pogodbi

where people will sacrifice their liberty

da će narod da žrtvuje svoju slobodu

in return for order, prosperity and national prestige.

za red, blagostanje i nacionalni ugled.

It's one where the state is very much in control,

U tom sistemu država ima kontrolu,

which is something that most Europeans and Americans would find alien.

što bi mnogi Evropljani i Amerikanci smatrali čudnim.

It's also a system that has worked very well for China.

Takođe je sistem koji dobro funkcioniše u Kini.

But the biggest risk it faces

No, rizik koji im preti

is a period of high and prolonged unemployment

je period visoke i dugotrajne nezaposlenosti,

that will break this contract

koja će da raskine taj ugovor

between the state and the people.

između naroda i države.

And for other countries,

A za druge države,

China can be an attractive partner.

Kina može da bude primamljiv partner.

It can provide capital and know-how.

Može da pruži kapital, znanje i iskustvo.

I'm thinking for example of Pakistan and Sri Lanka,

Mislim, na primer, na Pakistan i Šri Lanku,

two members of the Belt and Road program.

dva člana Inicijative pojasa i puta.

But this partnership comes at a price;

Ali to partnerstvo ima cenu:

they're beholden to Chinese technologies

zavise od kineske tehnologije,

such as the controversial Huawei.

kao što je kontroverzni Huawei.

Chinese investors own their debt,

Kineski investitori poseduju njihove dugove,

and as a result control key infrastructure

i tako kontrolišu bitnu infrastrukturu

such as the main port in Sri Lanka.

kao što je glavna luka u Šri Lanki.

Now I find that when we talk about globalization,

Smatram da kada govorimo o globalizaciji,

the end of globalization and the new world order,

o kraju globalizacije i novom svetskom poretku,

we spend far too much time discussing America, Europe and China,

previše vremena gubimo govoreći o Americi, Evropi i Kini

and not enough time on the many exciting things

a ne dovoljno govoreći o mnogim zanimljivim stvarima

happening in fast-growing economies,

koje se dešavaju u ekonomijama koje brzo rastu,

from Ethiopia, Nigeria, to Indonesia, Bangladesh, Mexico and Brazil.

počevši od Etiopije, Nigerije, pa do Indonezije, Bangladeša, Meksika i Brazila.

And in the new world order, the question for these countries

A u novom svetskom poretku, pitanje koje se postavlja njima jeste,

is what model to follow and what alliances to build.

koji model da slede i koje saveze da stvaraju.

And many of them during the period of globalization

I mnogi od njih su se tokom globalizacije naviknuli

had become used to being told what to do

na to da im bude rečeno šta da rade

by the likes of the IMF, the International Monetary Fund.

kao što je radio MMF, Međunarodni monetarni fond.

But the age of condescension is now over,

Ali doba snishodljivosti je gotovo,

so the tangible opportunity

tako da je mogućnost sada veća

in a less uniform,

da u raznolikom svetu,

more value-driven world for these countries

koji se više posvećuje vrednostima, ove države

is that they have much greater choice in the path to follow,

imaju više izbora kada biraju svoj put

and arguably greater pressure to get it right.

i verovatno veći pritisak da odaberu pravi.

So should, for example, Belarus and Lebanon

Da li bi, na primer, Belorusija ili Liban

follow the Irish model or that of Dubai?

trebalo da slede model Irske ili Dubaija?

Does Nigeria still think it has shared values

Da li Nigerija i dalje misli da ima zajedničke vrednosti

with the Commonwealth countries,

sa nacijama Komonvelta,

or will it ally itself and its fast-growing population

ili će sa svojim stanovništvom, koje brzo raste, da se priključi

to China and its model?

Kini i njenom modelu?

And then think of one of the few female leaders in Africa,

Onda još zamislite jednu od jedinih ženskih lidera u Africi,

President Sahle-Work Zewde of Ethiopia,

Predsednicu Etiopije, Šejl-Vork Zevde,

and whether she might be inspired

i da li bi je mogao inspirisati

by the work of Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand

rad Džesinde Ardern iz Novog Zelanda

or Nicola Sturgeon in Scotland,

ili Nikole Sturdžona iz Škotkse,

and tangibly how she can transfer their example

i kako bi ona mogla da primeni sve te primere

to policy in Ethiopia.

na politiku u Etiopiji.

Naravno, moglo bi da se desi da u ovom novom svetskom poretku

Of course, it may be that in this new world order,

countries like Kenya and Indonesia

države poput Kenije ili Indonezije

decide to go their own way

odluče da idu svojim putem

and build out their own value sets

i stvore svoj skup vrednosti

and their own economic infrastructure,

i svoju ekonomsku infrastrukturu,

and in this way the arrangements and the institutions of the future

pa bi se na taj način dogovori i institucije naše budućnosti

will be crafted much less in Washington and Beijing,

ređe stvarali u Vašingtonu i Pekingu

but really by countries like Tunisia and Cambodia,

nego u državama kao Tunisu ili Kambodži,

comparing notes on how to battle corruption through technology,

uspoređujući načine da se pobedi korupcija tehnologijom,

how to build education and health care systems

da se izgrade obrazovanje i zdravstveni sistemi

for burgeoning populations,

za rastuće stanovništvo,

and how to make their voice heard

i kako učiniti da se i njihov glas čuje

on the world stage.

na svetskoj bini.

So as globalization ends

Dok se globalizacija približava kraju

and chaos seems to reign,

i haos postaje sve veći,

these countries, their young populations

te države i njihovi mladi državljani

and the scope they have to build new societies

i prostor koji imaju da izgrade nova društva

are the future

su naša budućnost

and the promise of the new world order.

i nada novog svetskog poretka.

Thank you.

Hvala.