Mike O'Sullivan: The end of globalization (and the beginning of something new) | TED

翻译人员: Ying Song 校对人员: suya f.

我们正处于全球化的终点

全球化一直被我们忽视

而当它已成历史，我们开始想念它

We are at the end of globalization.

第二波全球化浪潮 始于上世纪 90 年代初

We've taken globalization for granted,

我们受益良多

and as it drifts into history, we're going to miss it.

数十亿人摆脱了贫困

The second wave of globalization began in the early '90s,

更惊人的是，越南和孟加拉国 等国的承认平均财产

and it delivered a great deal.

Billions of people rose out of poverty.

在过去 20 年里增加了 6 倍

More impressively, wealth per adult in countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh

民主国家的数量也增加了

包括如智利、马来西亚、爱沙尼亚在内的多个国家

increased by over six times in the last 20 years.

进行了自由公正的选举

The number of democracies rose,

全球多个地区的地区女性地位得到了提升

and countries as diverse as Chile, Malaysia, Estonia,

西班牙薪资不平等状况进一步改善

held free and fair elections.

沙特阿拉伯女性有更多机会接受教育

The role of women improved in many parts of the world,

就经济而言，供应链像蛛网一样覆盖全球

if you look at wage equality in countries like Spain,

or access to education in countries like Saudi Arabia.

汽车零件在不同的国家生产

然后组装成最终产品

Economically, supply chains spread like webs around the world,

全球化改变了我们现有的生活方式

with car parts criss-crossing borders

饮食习惯

before the final product came into place.

交流沟通以及获取新闻和娱乐的途径

And globalization has also changed the way we live now.

旅行和工作的方式同样被改变

但是现在，全球化即将寿终正寝

It's changed our diets.

It's changed how we communicate, how we consume news and entertainment,

全球化的成功同样也限制了其自身发展

how we travel and how we work.

例如不平等现象和创纪录的债务状况

But now, globalization is on its deathbed.

全球GDP负债率

It's run into the limitations of its own success:

已经达到自 200 年前 拿破仑战争以来的最高水平

inequality and new, record levels of indebtedness --

for example, world debt-to-GDP

这表明我们未能正确利用全球化的优势

is now pushing levels not seen since the Napoleonic Wars 200 years ago --

全球金融危机便是管理不当的恶果

show us that the advantages of globalization

从那时开始，决策者

have been misdirected.

几乎无所作为，仅仅遏制， 而非解决时代遇到的难题

The Global Financial Crisis was the result of this mismanagement,

and since then policymakers

现在，如爱尔兰和 荷兰等高度全球化的国家

have done little but contain,

已经成功改善国内的薪资不平等现象

rather than solve,

the problems of our age.

提高全球化收益的分配水平

Now, some highly globalized countries such as Ireland and the Netherlands,

方法便是提高税收以及开展社会福利项目

have managed to improve income inequality in their countries

其他国家的状况并没有那么好

by better distributing the bounties of globalization

尤其是俄罗斯和美国

through higher taxes and social welfare programs.

财富分配极端不平等

Other countries have not been as good.

比罗马帝国时代情况更甚

Russia and, especially, the United States,

have extreme levels of wealth inequality,

很多人由此确信全球化于他们毫无益处

more extreme even than during the time of the Roman Empire.

全球化创造的财富掌握在少数人手中

And this has convinced many people that globalization is against them,

2020 年， 疫情来袭

and that the bounties of globalization

我们的根基被动摇

have not been shared with the many.

并进一步暴露了全球化秩序的脆弱性

And now, in 2020,

we're confronted by the pandemic,

which has shaken the ground under us

过去的全球性危机

and further exposed the frailties

多数与经济或地缘政治有关

of the globalized world order.

一般而言，我们感觉最终 会有某个组织站出来拯救世界

In past international crises,

most of them economic or geopolitical,

各国领导人和几个大国合作解决问题

there has usually ultimately been a sense of a committee to save the world.

但这一次出乎意料

没有这样的联盟

贸易战当道

Leaders and leading nations would come together.

美国等国家在口罩 方面的出价高于其他国家

But this time, uniquely,

疫苗计划遭到黑客攻击

there has been no such collaboration.

Against a backdrop of trade wars,

全球并未携手应对共同的敌人—疫情

some countries like the US have outbid others for masks.

There's been hacking of vaccine programs,

因此，寄希望于全球疫苗计划 或全球复苏计划是没有用的

and a common enemy, the pandemic,

has not been met with a common response.

我们正处在时代的尽头

So any hope that we might have a world vaccine

这一时代的开始意味着苏联主义的落幕

or a world recovery program is in vain.

意味着贸易流动

So now we're at the end of an era in history,

金融流动，人员往来和思想传播的开始

an era that began with the fall of communism,

而现在这一时代走到了尽头。

that set in train the flow of trade,

of finance, of people

and of ideas,

问题是，下一个时代在哪里

and that now comes to an end

with events like the shutting down of democracy in Hong Kong.

如果我们要离开的时代

是一个互联互通的时代

The question now is, what's next?

全球努力缩小距离，携手共进

无论是经济目标还是地理分布都是如此

Well, if the era we're leaving

was characterized by a connected world

而新的世界秩序

充满了对抗、差异和不同， 以及最终基于价值观而成的合作，

trying to shrink and come together

而且新的世界秩序

on the basis of economic goals

and geography,

the new world order

will be defined by rival, distinct and different ways of doing things,

正在形成中

用“无秩序”形容可能更确切

and ultimately collaboration based on values,

这种情况已经存在了一段时间

但简单想想

and this new world order

is very much a work in progress.

巨大的冰层裂开

"Disorder" might be a better word,

一些逐渐飘走，一些进行重组

and it has been for some time.

But think appropriately

互联网也类似

of great sheets of ice breaking apart,

它曾覆盖全球

some drifting away

谷歌（Google）曾经 占据中国 30% 的市场

and others later reforming.

And the internet is a bit like this.

现在却几乎为 0

It used to be global.

而全球几个大国

Google used to have 30 percent of the market share in China,

更多的从价值观的角度审视互联网

and now it has close to zero percent.

美国崇尚技术革新和财务奖励

And the big regions of the world

increasingly look at the internet

from a values-based point of view.

中国则看到了互联网的政治性

所以禁止了它的使用

America values tech innovation and its financial rewards.

同时，中国的电商经济令人惊叹

China takes a political view of the internet

任何国家都无法匹敌

and cordons it off,

and at the same time China has this incredible e-commerce economy

接下来是欧洲

在欧洲，关于互联网的对话

that no other country has come close to matching.

实际上是关于数据和隐私的对话

现在你得到了结论：

And then there's Europe,

and in Europe a conversation about the internet

对同一个问题

产生了三种渐行渐远、相互冲突的观点

is effectively a conversation about data and privacy.

这表明对立的意志形态

So there you have it:

会导致截然不同的行事方式

one common problem,

and three increasingly different, competing views.

但是协作和合作呢

This shows us that rival ideologies

嗯，我想用三个小国家举例说明

will drive very distinct ways of doing things.

But what about collaboration and cooperation?

他们是苏格兰、冰岛和新西兰

几年前

Well, I'm going to start with the example of three small countries:

他们签署了福利经济政府协约

其目标是促进生态健康、 人类福祉以及经济增长

Scotland, Iceland and New Zealand.

And a couple of years ago,

they signed up to the Wellbeing Economy Governments,

实际上，

这些国家已经在讨论 福利预算、健康旅游

whose aim is to foster ecological and human well-being

as well as economic growth.

Practically speaking,

以及通过福利体系抗击疫情等事项

these countries are already discussing things like well-being budgeting,

其实，这三个国家地理位置 和地貌风情都相差甚远

well-being-led tourism,

and using the well-being framework in the fight against COVID.

但共同的价值观驱使他们走到了一起

Now, these three countries are about as geographically distant

这是一个共识

and diverse as you can get,

即政府政策不仅仅和GDP有关

but they've come together

on the basis of a shared value,

类似的，在未来

which is a common understanding

其他小国和城市国家——新加坡、 瑞士、阿拉伯联合酋长国

that there is more to government policy

than merely GDP.

将会发现彼此有很多相似之处

Similarly, in the future,

other small countries and city-states --

比它们与大邻国之间的共同点更多

Singapore, Switzerland, the United Arab Emirates --

它们都是全球金融中心

投资战略规划

will find that they have more in common with each other

且它们都是地缘政治中较小的力量

than with their larger neighbors.

因此会更加紧密的合作

They're all global financial centers.

They all invest in strategic planning.

另一个例子

能证明价值观比地理位置

And they are all geopolitical micropowers

更能决定一个地区 自身命运及同盟选择的是欧洲

and will collaborate more as a result.

Another good example

全球化进程中

of how values, rather than geography,

一个重要现象

will increasingly shape destinies and alliances is Europe.

是欧盟东扩

During the period of globalization,

2004 年至今欧盟 新增 13 个成员国

one of the key phenomena

尽管欧元存在岌岌可危

was the eastward expansion of the European Union.

From 2004, it added 13 new members,

俄罗斯虎视眈眈

当然还有英国脱欧带来的创伤

despite the near existential crisis of the euro,

就像一家发展过快的公司一样

constant pressure from Russia,

欧洲需要停下来

and of course the trauma of Brexit.

想想未来何去何从

想想其所信奉的价值观 是否能带领它走上正确的道路

And, like a company that has grown too fast,

Europe needs to stop

欧洲已经开始这么做了

and think about where it's going

尽管进程缓慢

欧盟领导人经常谈到欧盟的价值观

and ask whether its values can steer it in the right direction.

但坦白说，大多数欧洲人

And this is beginning to happen,

无论是德国人、希腊人， 还是拉脱维亚人、西班牙人

albeit slowly.

European leaders talk a lot about European values,

都不知道或不太清楚共同价值观

but frankly most Europeans,

be they German, Greek, Latvian or Spaniards,

到底是什么

所以欧洲政客们需要好好

really don't know or have a clear idea what those shared common values

问问欧洲人他们对共同价值观感受如何

are supposed to be.

而后回答他们提出的问题

So European politicians need to do a very good job

一定要清晰明确

of asking them how they feel about these common values

当然社交媒体也是可利用的重要工具之一

and then communicating the answers back to them

随着欧洲的联合愈发基于价值观

in a clear and tangible way.

And of course social media is a very important tool to deploy here.

而非地理位置

欧洲的形象

And as Europe moves [towards] a union that's based more on values

以及那些价值观本身

愈发局限于

and less on geography,

布鲁塞尔

its contours

与匈牙利或波兰等国之间的冲突

and those values themselves

will increasingly be defined

这些国家的所作所为越来越

与基本价值观相悖

by the tension between Brussels

如敬畏民主

and countries like Hungary and Poland,

尊重法治

who are increasingly behaving in ways

女性及LGBT群体（女同性恋、 男同性恋、双性恋和跨性别者）的待遇

that go against basic values

也是值得关注的一点

such as respect for democracy

如今欧洲将要，也必须要

and the rule of law.

The treatment of women and the LGBT community

向这些国家提供金融援助

are other important markers here.

以及政策支持

由此推动这些国家遵循欧洲共同价值观

And in time Europe will, and should,

这些国家、东欧国家及塞浦路斯

tie financial aid to these countries

仍旧同俄罗斯及中国有着紧密的经济合作

and policy

to their adherence to Europe's shared values.

届时，他们将再一次被迫

And these countries, and others in Eastern Europe, and Cyprus,

still have close financial ties to Russia and China.

在欧洲及欧洲价值观

与他们本身的价值观之间做出选择

And again in time they will be forced to choose

同欧洲类似，中国是另一大全球参与者

between Europe and its values

有着非常独特的价值观

and these other countries and their own distinct values.

或者说民众与政府之间的契约关系

Like Europe, China is another big player

必须指出的是这种价值观

with a very distinct set of values,

并非我们所理解的

西方价值观

or contract between the people and the state.

过去三十年，中国经历了

And I have to say that this set of values

is not one that is well-understood

深刻的经济及社会转型

我们应当更加谨慎

in the West.

中国的价值观深深植根于其历史

And given China's extraordinary economic and social transformation

期望重新回到那个位置

in the last 30 years,

那个它千百年前享有的位置

we should really be more curious.

China's values are rooted deep in its history,

那时，中国经济无人可敌

习近平提到“中国梦”的时候

in a desire to regain the place

it once enjoyed hundreds of years ago

特朗普还未当选

when its economy was the dominant one.

也未喊出那句口号 “让美国再次伟大”

Indeed, Xi Jinping talked of the China Dream

从外界来看，中国体制

well before Donald Trump was elected

基于契约关系或协议关系

with the catchphrase "Make America Great Again."

即人们愿意牺牲自由

And China's system, viewed from the outside,

以换取井然有序、繁荣昌盛和国家声望

is based around a contract or a bargain

这种体制下的国家拥有高度控制权

where people will sacrifice their liberty

大多数欧洲人和美国人对此甚少了解

in return for order, prosperity and national prestige.

这种体系在中国运行良好

It's one where the state is very much in control,

which is something that most Europeans and Americans would find alien.

但该国面临的最大问题是

一段时间内长期存在的高失业率

It's also a system that has worked very well for China.

这将会破坏

国家与人民之间的契约关系

But the biggest risk it faces

于其他国家而言

is a period of high and prolonged unemployment

中国是个良好的合作伙伴

它能够提供资金和技术

that will break this contract

between the state and the people.

例如巴基斯坦和斯里兰卡

And for other countries,

它们是一带一路项目的成员国

China can be an attractive partner.

It can provide capital and know-how.

但这种伙伴关系是有代价的

I'm thinking for example of Pakistan and Sri Lanka,

它们依赖于中国技术

two members of the Belt and Road program.

例如饱受争议的华为技术

中国投资商掌控着他们的债务

But this partnership comes at a price;

因此也控制着关键基础设施

they're beholden to Chinese technologies

例如斯里兰卡的主要港口

such as the controversial Huawei.

Chinese investors own their debt,

现在我发现每当我们谈起全球化

and as a result control key infrastructure

全球化终结和世界新秩序

我们花费大量时间讨论美国、欧洲和中国

such as the main port in Sri Lanka.

Now I find that when we talk about globalization,

the end of globalization and the new world order,

而甚少提及许多更令人振奋的事实

we spend far too much time discussing America, Europe and China,

它们存在于快速发展的经济体中

从埃塞俄比亚、尼日利亚到印度尼西亚、 孟加拉国、墨西哥及巴西

and not enough time on the many exciting things

happening in fast-growing economies,

新的世界秩序下， 这些国家面临的问题是

from Ethiopia, Nigeria, to Indonesia, Bangladesh, Mexico and Brazil.

遵循何种发展模式以及同谁建立联盟

And in the new world order, the question for these countries

许多国家在全球化进程中

已经习惯听命行事

is what model to follow and what alliances to build.

例如听从国家货币基金组织等机构的建议

And many of them during the period of globalization

had become used to being told what to do

但是仰人鼻息的时代已经结束了

这些国家拥有唾手可得的机会

by the likes of the IMF, the International Monetary Fund.

它们就在这个不那么统一

价值更加多元化的世界

But the age of condescension is now over,

这些国家在前进道路上拥有更多选择

so the tangible opportunity

in a less uniform,

也可以说它们在选择 正确道路上承担更多压力

more value-driven world for these countries

例如，白俄罗斯和黎巴嫩

is that they have much greater choice in the path to follow,

应该走爱尔兰模式还是迪拜模式

and arguably greater pressure to get it right.

尼日利亚是否仍旧认为

So should, for example, Belarus and Lebanon

它和英联邦国家拥有共同价值观

follow the Irish model or that of Dubai?

还是说它会带领其快速增长的国民

Does Nigeria still think it has shared values

选择中国模式

再想想非洲为数不多的女性领导者之一

with the Commonwealth countries,

or will it ally itself and its fast-growing population

埃塞俄比亚总统萨赫勒-沃克·祖德

to China and its model?

And then think of one of the few female leaders in Africa,

她是否能从他人身上获得启发

例如新西兰总统 杰辛达·阿德恩

President Sahle-Work Zewde of Ethiopia,

或苏格兰部长尼古拉·斯特金

以及她如何能够将 这些启发转化为实际政策

and whether she might be inspired

by the work of Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand

来管理埃塞俄比亚

or Nicola Sturgeon in Scotland,

当然，在新的世界秩序下

and tangibly how she can transfer their example

肯尼亚和印度尼西亚等国家

决心走自己的路

to policy in Ethiopia.

Of course, it may be that in this new world order,

建立自己的价值体系

countries like Kenya and Indonesia

构建自己的经济结构

如此，这些国家的未来 的安排和机构组织

decide to go their own way

and build out their own value sets

不会像美国或中国那样

and their own economic infrastructure,

and in this way the arrangements and the institutions of the future

而是类似于突尼斯或柬埔寨

will be crafted much less in Washington and Beijing,

就如何利用技术对抗腐败交换意见

如何构建教育和医疗体系

but really by countries like Tunisia and Cambodia,

满足迅速成长的新一代

comparing notes on how to battle corruption through technology,

如何让自己的声音

被全世界听到

how to build education and health care systems

因此随着全球化终结

混乱当道

for burgeoning populations,

and how to make their voice heard

这些国家，这些年轻的国家

on the world stage.

So as globalization ends

以及它们建设新社会的机会

and chaos seems to reign,

才是未来

these countries, their young populations

才是新世界秩序的希望。

and the scope they have to build new societies

谢谢。

are the future

and the promise of the new world order.

Thank you.