Mike O'Sullivan: The end of globalization (and the beginning of something new) | TED

審譯者: Shelley Tsang 曾雯海

我們現正處於全球化的末期。

大家將全球化視為理所當然，

當它邁入歷史後， 我們會懷念它。

We are at the end of globalization.

第二波全球化發生在 1990 年代初，

We've taken globalization for granted,

創造了極大的經濟利益。

and as it drifts into history, we're going to miss it.

數十億的人口脫離了貧困。

The second wave of globalization began in the early '90s,

更令人印象深刻的是， 越南、孟加拉等國的人均財富

and it delivered a great deal.

Billions of people rose out of poverty.

比二十年前多了六倍。

More impressively, wealth per adult in countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh

民主政體總數上升，

而智利、馬來西亞、愛沙尼亞等 眾多文化迥異的國家，

increased by over six times in the last 20 years.

都實施自由、公正的選舉制度。

The number of democracies rose,

女性地位在世界許多地方也提升了，

and countries as diverse as Chile, Malaysia, Estonia,

像是西班牙等國的工資平等，

held free and fair elections.

沙烏地阿拉伯等國女性開始受教育。

The role of women improved in many parts of the world,

經濟方面，供應鏈遍佈全球，

if you look at wage equality in countries like Spain,

or access to education in countries like Saudi Arabia.

一部汽車在成品出廠前，

各部分的零件早在 多個國家穿梭進出。

Economically, supply chains spread like webs around the world,

全球化同時也改變了 我們的生活模式。

with car parts criss-crossing borders

它改變了我們的飲食習慣。

before the final product came into place.

它改變了我們溝通、 取得資訊、娛樂的方式，

And globalization has also changed the way we live now.

以及我們旅遊、工作的方式。

然而此刻，全球化正瀕臨死亡邊緣。

It's changed our diets.

It's changed how we communicate, how we consume news and entertainment,

全球化的成功現已走到了盡頭：

how we travel and how we work.

不平等及屢創新高的負債程度──

But now, globalization is on its deathbed.

例如各國政府債務占 GDP 的比例

It's run into the limitations of its own success:

是拿破崙戰爭後 200 年來所未見——

inequality and new, record levels of indebtedness --

for example, world debt-to-GDP

顯示出全球化的優勢

is now pushing levels not seen since the Napoleonic Wars 200 years ago --

走上錯誤的方向。

全球金融危機正是管理不當的結果，

show us that the advantages of globalization

但是做決策者只是嘗試亡羊補牢，

have been misdirected.

The Global Financial Crisis was the result of this mismanagement,

而非徹底解決這個當代的問題。

and since then policymakers

現在一些高度全球化的國家， 例如愛爾蘭與荷蘭，

have done little but contain,

成功改善所得不平等的問題，

rather than solve,

the problems of our age.

平均分配全球化所帶來的經濟利益，

Now, some highly globalized countries such as Ireland and the Netherlands,

方法是提高稅率與社會福利制度。

have managed to improve income inequality in their countries

其他國家就沒有那麼好了。

by better distributing the bounties of globalization

俄羅斯和美國，尤其是美國，

through higher taxes and social welfare programs.

貧富差距相當嚴重，

Other countries have not been as good.

甚至糟過羅馬帝國時期。

Russia and, especially, the United States,

have extreme levels of wealth inequality,

這點讓很多人相信 全球化對他們不利，

more extreme even than during the time of the Roman Empire.

而且全球化所帶來的經濟利益

集中在少數人身上。

And this has convinced many people that globalization is against them,

時間來到 2020 年，

全球受到疫情威脅，

and that the bounties of globalization

疫情動搖了社會基礎，

have not been shared with the many.

也進一步讓我們發現 全球化後的世界秩序何等脆弱。

And now, in 2020,

we're confronted by the pandemic,

which has shaken the ground under us

過去每當發生國際危機，

and further exposed the frailties

無論是經濟還是地緣政治的問題，

of the globalized world order.

最終會有一群人抱著 拯救世界的心態出面解決。

In past international crises,

most of them economic or geopolitical,

各國領袖和先進國家一起合作。

there has usually ultimately been a sense of a committee to save the world.

但這次很特別，

完全沒看到類似的合作。

在貿易戰的背景下，

Leaders and leading nations would come together.

有些國家，像是美國， 還出高價收購口罩。

But this time, uniquely,

疫苗的研發遭駭客入侵，

there has been no such collaboration.

Against a backdrop of trade wars,

面對疫情這個共有的敵人，

some countries like the US have outbid others for masks.

各國卻始終無法達成共識。

There's been hacking of vaccine programs,

目前看來，想要一個世界流通的疫苗

and a common enemy, the pandemic,

還是全球合作的復甦計畫都是徒勞。

has not been met with a common response.

我們正處於一個年代的末期，

So any hope that we might have a world vaccine

這個年代始於共產主義的崩塌，

or a world recovery program is in vain.

開啟了世界貿易、

So now we're at the end of an era in history,

帶來金融與人口的流動

與思想的交流，

an era that began with the fall of communism,

現在這一切，

that set in train the flow of trade,

隨著香港失去民主自由等事件 終於到了盡頭。

of finance, of people

and of ideas,

問題是，接下來會怎樣？

and that now comes to an end

with events like the shutting down of democracy in Hong Kong.

如果即將過去的這個年代

是一個緊密連結的世界──

The question now is, what's next?

大家基於經濟目標或地理位置，

縮短距離，互相合作；

Well, if the era we're leaving

was characterized by a connected world

新的世界秩序

則是彼此競爭， 各自依循不同的做事方法，

trying to shrink and come together

on the basis of economic goals

and geography,

最終則因價值觀產生合作。

the new world order

will be defined by rival, distinct and different ways of doing things,

這個新的世界秩序

其實早已開始進行。

「失衡」兩字或許更能形容

and ultimately collaboration based on values,

過去這段時間的狀態。

不過要更貼切的話，

and this new world order

is very much a work in progress.

想像大片冰層四分五裂，

"Disorder" might be a better word,

有些漂離原地，

and it has been for some time.

有些一段時間後重新塑形。

But think appropriately

網路世界就有點像這樣。

of great sheets of ice breaking apart,

過去，它是全球化的。

some drifting away

谷歌在中國曾有 30% 的市佔率，

and others later reforming.

And the internet is a bit like this.

但現在趨近於零。

It used to be global.

世界上一些主要地區

Google used to have 30 percent of the market share in China,

對網路的看法

越來越以價值觀為基礎。

and now it has close to zero percent.

美國重視科技創新和經濟價值。

And the big regions of the world

increasingly look at the internet

from a values-based point of view.

中國則是採取政治觀點，

所以將網路封鎖，

America values tech innovation and its financial rewards.

與此同時，中國有龐大的電商經濟，

China takes a political view of the internet

遠遠超過其他國家。

and cordons it off,

and at the same time China has this incredible e-commerce economy

至於歐洲，

在歐洲講到網路，

that no other country has come close to matching.

就跳脫不開資料和隱私。

這個例子說明了：

And then there's Europe,

and in Europe a conversation about the internet

同一個問題，

卻有三種截然不同的觀點。

is effectively a conversation about data and privacy.

這顯現了不同的意識型態

So there you have it:

one common problem,

會產生不同的處理方式。

and three increasingly different, competing views.

那合作關係的建立呢？

This shows us that rival ideologies

我想以三個小國的例子說明：

will drive very distinct ways of doing things.

But what about collaboration and cooperation?

蘇格蘭、冰島和紐西蘭。

幾年前，

Well, I'm going to start with the example of three small countries:

他們組成「幸福經濟政府聯盟」，

目標在於促進生態、人民福祉

Scotland, Iceland and New Zealand.

And a couple of years ago,

以及經濟成長。

they signed up to the Wellbeing Economy Governments,

事實上，

這些國家早已開始探討幸福預算、

whose aim is to foster ecological and human well-being

as well as economic growth.

以幸福為導向的觀光業、

Practically speaking,

如何在幸福的框架下 對抗新冠狀病毒。

these countries are already discussing things like well-being budgeting,

這三個國家之間的地理位置、

well-being-led tourism,

and using the well-being framework in the fight against COVID.

文化背景都大大不同，

但他們卻能聯合起來

因著同樣的價值觀，

Now, these three countries are about as geographically distant

達成一個共識，

and diverse as you can get,

那就是政府政策包含許多面向，

but they've come together

而不只是 GDP 而已。

on the basis of a shared value,

同樣地在未來，

which is a common understanding

一些其他的小國和城國──

that there is more to government policy

新加坡、瑞士、 阿拉伯聯合大公國──

than merely GDP.

也會發現彼此的理念 比周邊的大國更加相近。

Similarly, in the future,

other small countries and city-states --

Singapore, Switzerland, the United Arab Emirates --

這幾個都是全球金融中心，

也都注重策略性規劃，

will find that they have more in common with each other

同屬地緣政治中的小國，

than with their larger neighbors.

因此合作得會更緊密。

They're all global financial centers.

They all invest in strategic planning.

另外還有一個很好的例子

可以說明價值觀而非地緣政治

And they are all geopolitical micropowers

將更能形塑命運和同盟，就是歐洲。

and will collaborate more as a result.

Another good example

在全球化的過程中

of how values, rather than geography,

歐盟有逐漸向東擴張的現象。

will increasingly shape destinies and alliances is Europe.

During the period of globalization,

從 2004 年至今， 歐盟新增了 13 個成員國，

one of the key phenomena

其中經歷了歐元危機、

was the eastward expansion of the European Union.

From 2004, it added 13 new members,

俄羅斯持續施壓、

英國脫歐的創傷等等。

despite the near existential crisis of the euro,

就像任何成長過快的公司，

constant pressure from Russia,

歐盟需要放慢腳步

and of course the trauma of Brexit.

思考未來的目標走向，

自問整體價值觀是否還在正軌上。

And, like a company that has grown too fast,

Europe needs to stop

這一切都剛剛開始，

and think about where it's going

雖然進程緩慢。

歐盟領導人大談歐洲價值，

and ask whether its values can steer it in the right direction.

但坦率地說，許多歐洲人──

And this is beginning to happen,

不管是德國、希臘、 拉脫維亞、西班牙人，

albeit slowly.

European leaders talk a lot about European values,

還是不清楚歐盟共享的價值觀

but frankly most Europeans,

be they German, Greek, Latvian or Spaniards,

指的是什麼。

因此，歐洲的政治人物必須

really don't know or have a clear idea what those shared common values

先弄清楚所有人共享的價值觀，

are supposed to be.

再以清楚、具體的方式去溝通，

So European politicians need to do a very good job

讓歐洲人擁有同樣的體認。

of asking them how they feel about these common values

當然，社群媒體是個重要的工具

and then communicating the answers back to them

當歐洲邁向以價值導向為主的聯盟

in a clear and tangible way.

And of course social media is a very important tool to deploy here.

而非地域導向，

聯盟的邊界和它所抱持的價值觀

And as Europe moves [towards] a union that's based more on values

將更被布魯塞爾附近的 緊張氣氛所影響，

and less on geography,

its contours

像是匈牙利和波蘭

and those values themselves

will increasingly be defined

正逐漸自行其是，

抵觸歐盟的基本價值，

by the tension between Brussels

比方說尊重民主和法治。

and countries like Hungary and Poland,

who are increasingly behaving in ways

對待女性與 LGBT 群體的方式

that go against basic values

也是重要的里程碑。

such as respect for democracy

同時，歐洲應該要

and the rule of law.

The treatment of women and the LGBT community

給予他們經濟上的支助

are other important markers here.

以及政策上的協助

讓歐洲共同遵守的價值觀串聯起來

And in time Europe will, and should,

這些國家、東歐國家與 賽普勒斯共和國的經濟

tie financial aid to these countries

和俄羅斯、中國之間的經濟相當緊密

and policy

to their adherence to Europe's shared values.

未來他們也將面對

And these countries, and others in Eastern Europe, and Cyprus,

still have close financial ties to Russia and China.

選擇歐洲和它的價值

或是他們自身的價值

And again in time they will be forced to choose

中國也是另一個

between Europe and its values

擁有相當多價值觀的國家

and these other countries and their own distinct values.

不論是其人民或是整個國家

Like Europe, China is another big player

我必須說這地區的價值

with a very distinct set of values,

必非和西方一樣

那麼被充分認識。

or contract between the people and the state.

考量到中國的經濟和社會結構改變

And I have to say that this set of values

is not one that is well-understood

已經30年了

我們應該進行深入探討

in the West.

中國的價值觀和其歷史密不可分

And given China's extraordinary economic and social transformation

它可望能重返

in the last 30 years,

數百年前

we should really be more curious.

China's values are rooted deep in its history,

它在經濟上享有的主導地位。

的確，習近平早在川普當選前

in a desire to regain the place

it once enjoyed hundreds of years ago

就喊過和「讓美國再次偉大」

when its economy was the dominant one.

相似的口號。

Indeed, Xi Jinping talked of the China Dream

從外部看，中國的制度

well before Donald Trump was elected

是建立在人民犧牲其自由

with the catchphrase "Make America Great Again."

And China's system, viewed from the outside,

換取國家的秩序、繁榮

is based around a contract or a bargain

與民族威信。

這使領導者能充分掌握國家，

where people will sacrifice their liberty

這也是歐洲人、美國人覺得奇怪的地方。

in return for order, prosperity and national prestige.

然而，這個體制在中國實施的相當好。

It's one where the state is very much in control,

which is something that most Europeans and Americans would find alien.

但它所要面對的危機

就是長期的高失業率

It's also a system that has worked very well for China.

可能會使人民破壞

與政府簽訂的協約。

But the biggest risk it faces

對其他國家，

is a period of high and prolonged unemployment

中國是相當有吸引力的合夥人。

它可以提供資金和專業的技術。

that will break this contract

between the state and the people.

比方說巴基斯坦和斯里蘭卡，

And for other countries,

他們倆個都是一帶一路的參與國。

China can be an attractive partner.

It can provide capital and know-how.

但是這樣的合作是有代價的；

I'm thinking for example of Pakistan and Sri Lanka,

他們看重中國華為的科技技術

two members of the Belt and Road program.

雖然是具有爭議性的技術。

中國的投資者擁有他們的股份

But this partnership comes at a price;

因此，控制者主要基礎設施

they're beholden to Chinese technologies

比方說斯里蘭卡的主要港口。

such as the controversial Huawei.

Chinese investors own their debt,

我發現當我們在討論全球化、

and as a result control key infrastructure

全球化末期和新世界秩序時，

我們花太多時間討論美國、歐洲和中國

such as the main port in Sri Lanka.

Now I find that when we talk about globalization,

the end of globalization and the new world order,

卻沒有討論到經濟

we spend far too much time discussing America, Europe and China,

正快速上升的國家，

如衣索比亞、尼日利亞、印度尼西亞、 孟加拉、墨西哥和巴西。

and not enough time on the many exciting things

happening in fast-growing economies,

而這些國家 未來所面對的問題

from Ethiopia, Nigeria, to Indonesia, Bangladesh, Mexico and Brazil.

會是要遵循哪個價值、 要和誰結盟。

And in the new world order, the question for these countries

而且，上述諸國在全球化時期

都習慣遵守

is what model to follow and what alliances to build.

國際貨幣經濟組織的指令。

And many of them during the period of globalization

had become used to being told what to do

而這樣的時代已經快結束了，

對這些國家而言

by the likes of the IMF, the International Monetary Fund.

他們將在不太統一、

價值取向的世界中

But the age of condescension is now over,

獲得更多選擇

so the tangible opportunity

in a less uniform,

並有機會將其修正。

more value-driven world for these countries

舉例來說，白俄羅斯和黎巴該

is that they have much greater choice in the path to follow,

跟隨愛爾蘭還是杜拜呢

and arguably greater pressure to get it right.

奈及利亞需要再遵守

So should, for example, Belarus and Lebanon

與英聯邦國家相同的價值觀

follow the Irish model or that of Dubai?

或是與和它相似的中國

Does Nigeria still think it has shared values

因為他們都有急速上升的人口

衣索比亞的賽赫勒.沃克.澤德總統

with the Commonwealth countries,

or will it ally itself and its fast-growing population

作為非洲少數的女性領導人，

to China and its model?

And then think of one of the few female leaders in Africa,

她是否會被

紐西蘭的傑辛達.阿登

President Sahle-Work Zewde of Ethiopia,

或是蘇格蘭的尼古拉.斯特金所影響

她又要如何將這些典範

and whether she might be inspired

by the work of Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand

帶到衣索比亞呢?

or Nicola Sturgeon in Scotland,

當然，在新的世界秩序中

and tangibly how she can transfer their example

肯亞和印度尼西亞

可能決定遵從自身的價值觀

to policy in Ethiopia.

Of course, it may be that in this new world order,

因而打造自身價值觀

countries like Kenya and Indonesia

和自己的經濟基礎建設

如此一來，他們在未來

decide to go their own way

and build out their own value sets

就比較不會受到中國、美國的介入

and their own economic infrastructure,

and in this way the arrangements and the institutions of the future

而是突尼斯和柬埔寨的介入

will be crafted much less in Washington and Beijing,

比較如何透過科技處理貪腐問題

如何建立教育、健保系統

but really by countries like Tunisia and Cambodia,

給迅速成長的人口

comparing notes on how to battle corruption through technology,

如何讓世界

聽到他們的聲音

how to build education and health care systems

隨著全球化結束

混亂似乎被控制了

for burgeoning populations,

and how to make their voice heard

這些國家的青年人口

on the world stage.

So as globalization ends

和他們建立的新社會價值觀

and chaos seems to reign,

將會是新世界秩序的

these countries, their young populations

未來和希望。

and the scope they have to build new societies

謝謝。

are the future

and the promise of the new world order.

Thank you.