Mike O'Sullivan: The end of globalization (and the beginning of something new) | TED

Translator: Mario Cal Reviewer: Xosé María Moreno

We are at the end of globalization.

Atopámonos no final da globalización.

We've taken globalization for granted,

Demos por feita a globalización,

and as it drifts into history, we're going to miss it.

e agora que se torna historia, ímola botar en falta.

The second wave of globalization began in the early '90s,

A segunda vaga de globalización comezou nos anos 90

and it delivered a great deal.

e achegou moitísimas cousas

Billions of people rose out of poverty.

Sacou a miles de millóns da miseria.

More impressively, wealth per adult in countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh

Aínda máis, a riqueza por adulto en países como Vietnam e Bangladesh

increased by over six times in the last 20 years.

multiplicouse por seis nos últimos vinte anos.

The number of democracies rose,

Aumentou o número de democracias,

and countries as diverse as Chile, Malaysia, Estonia,

e países tan distintos como Chile, Malaisia ou Estonia

held free and fair elections.

celebraron eleccións libres e xustas.

The role of women improved in many parts of the world,

O papel da muller mellorou en moitos lugares,

if you look at wage equality in countries like Spain,

se nos fixamos na igualdade salarial en países como España

or access to education in countries like Saudi Arabia.

ou no acceso á educación en países como Arabia Saudí.

Economically, supply chains spread like webs around the world,

En economía, as cadeas de suministro estendéronse por todo o mundo.

with car parts criss-crossing borders

As pezas de automóbil cruzan moitas fronteiras

before the final product came into place.

antes de que se monte o produto final.

And globalization has also changed the way we live now.

Coa globalización tamén mudou o noso modo de vida.

It's changed our diets.

Cambiou a nosa dieta.

It's changed how we communicate, how we consume news and entertainment,

Cambiou o modo de comunicarnos, de consumir información e divertirnos,

how we travel and how we work.

de viaxar e de traballar.

But now, globalization is on its deathbed.

Con todo, a globalización está hoxe no seu leito de morte.

It's run into the limitations of its own success:

Topou coas limitacións do seu propio éxito:

inequality and new, record levels of indebtedness --

a desigualdade e uns niveis de endebedamento inéditos

for example, world debt-to-GDP

--por exemplo, a ratio débeda/PIB mundial

is now pushing levels not seen since the Napoleonic Wars 200 years ago --

acadou niveis de hai douscentos anos durante as guerras napoleónicas--

show us that the advantages of globalization

demostran que as vantaxes da globalización

have been misdirected.

estaban mal orientadas.

The Global Financial Crisis was the result of this mismanagement,

A Crise Financeira Global foi o resultado desa mala xestión,

and since then policymakers

e desde entón os políticos

have done little but contain,

limitáronse a conter,

rather than solve,

máis que a resolver,

the problems of our age.

os problemas deste tempo.

Now, some highly globalized countries such as Ireland and the Netherlands,

Agora ben, países moi globalizados como Irlanda ou os Países Baixos

have managed to improve income inequality in their countries

lograron reducir a desigualdade de renda

by better distributing the bounties of globalization

distribuíndo mellor os beneficios da globalización,

through higher taxes and social welfare programs.

con impostos máis altos e programas de asistencia social.

Other countries have not been as good.

Outros países non o fixeron tan ben.

Russia and, especially, the United States,

Rusia e, sobre todo, os Estados Unidos

have extreme levels of wealth inequality,

teñen niveis extremos de desigualdade,

more extreme even than during the time of the Roman Empire.

aínda máis extremos ca nos tempos do Imperio Romano.

And this has convinced many people that globalization is against them,

E isto convenceu a moitos de que a globalización os prexudica

and that the bounties of globalization

e de que as súas recompensas

have not been shared with the many.

non se compartiron coa maioría.

And now, in 2020,

Hoxe, en 2020,

we're confronted by the pandemic,

enfrontámonos coa pandemia,

which has shaken the ground under us

que fixo tremer o chan que pisamos

and further exposed the frailties

e deixou ao descuberto a fraxilidade

of the globalized world order.

da orde do mundo globalizado.

In past international crises,

En anteriores crises internacionais,

most of them economic or geopolitical,

a meirande parte económicas ou xeopolíticas,

there has usually ultimately been a sense of a committee to save the world.

tiñamos a sensación de que había un comité que salvaría o mundo.

Leaders and leading nations would come together.

Os líderes e as principais nacións xuntaríanse.

But this time, uniquely,

Pero desta volta, excepcionalmente,

there has been no such collaboration.

non se produciu esa colaboración.

Against a backdrop of trade wars,

Nun contexto de guerra comercial,

some countries like the US have outbid others for masks.

países coma Estados Unidos poxaron máis alto polas máscaras.

There's been hacking of vaccine programs,

Pirateáronse programas de vacinas,

and a common enemy, the pandemic,

e ao inimigo común, a pandemia,

has not been met with a common response.

non se lle fixo fronte cunha resposta común.

So any hope that we might have a world vaccine

Así que a esperanza de conseguir unha vacina mundial

or a world recovery program is in vain.

ou un programa de recuperación mundial é va.

So now we're at the end of an era in history,

Atopámonos ao final dunha era,

an era that began with the fall of communism,

unha era que comezou coa caída do comunismo,

that set in train the flow of trade,

que puxo en marcha a circulación dos negocios,

of finance, of people

das finanzas, das persoas

and of ideas,

e das ideas,

and that now comes to an end

e agora todo isto remata

with events like the shutting down of democracy in Hong Kong.

con acontecementos como a supresión da democracia en Hong Kong.

The question now is, what's next?

A cuestión é: E agora que?

Well, if the era we're leaving

Se o que caracterizaba a era que deixamos atrás

was characterized by a connected world

era un mundo conectado

trying to shrink and come together

que tentaba contraerse e unirse

on the basis of economic goals

en función de obxectivos económicos

and geography,

e da xeografía,

the new world order

a nova orde mundial

will be defined by rival, distinct and different ways of doing things,

definirase polas formas enfrontadas, distintas, de facer as cousas,

and ultimately collaboration based on values,

e, en última instancia, pola colaboración baseada en valores.

and this new world order

Esta nova orde mundial

is very much a work in progress.

está en boa medida en construción.

"Disorder" might be a better word,

"Desorde" sería un termo mellor,

and it has been for some time.

e é así desde hai algún tempo.

But think appropriately

Unha imaxe máis adecuada

of great sheets of ice breaking apart,

sería a de grandes bloques de xeo que se fragmentan,

some drifting away

algúns vanse separando

and others later reforming.

e outros volven xuntarse.

And the internet is a bit like this.

Internet é un pouco así.

It used to be global.

Antes era global.

Google used to have 30 percent of the market share in China,

Google tiña o 30 por cento da cuota de mercado en China.

and now it has close to zero percent.

Hoxe ten practicamente cero.

And the big regions of the world

As grandes rexións do mundo

increasingly look at the internet

ven Internet cada vez máis

from a values-based point of view.

desde o punto de vista dos valores.

America values tech innovation and its financial rewards.

Estados Unidos valora a innovación tecnolóxica e os seus réditos.

China takes a political view of the internet

China ten unha perspectiva política de Internet

and cordons it off,

e acordóaa,

and at the same time China has this incredible e-commerce economy

e ao mesmo tempo China conta cun impresionante comercio virtual

that no other country has come close to matching.

que ningún outro país logrou igualar.

And then there's Europe,

E logo está Europa,

and in Europe a conversation about the internet

onde a conversa sobre Internet

is effectively a conversation about data and privacy.

xira en torno aos datos e a privacidade.

So there you have it:

Así que aí tedes:

one common problem,

Un mesmo problema

and three increasingly different, competing views.

e tres visións cada vez máis contrapostas.

This shows us that rival ideologies

Isto demostra que ideoloxías opostas

will drive very distinct ways of doing things.

levan a formas moi distintas de facer as cousas.

But what about collaboration and cooperation?

Que pasa entón coa colaboración e a cooperación?

Well, I'm going to start with the example of three small countries:

Comezarei co exemplo de tres países pequenos:

Scotland, Iceland and New Zealand.

Escocia, Islandia e Nova Zelandia.

And a couple of years ago,

Hai un par de anos,

they signed up to the Wellbeing Economy Governments,

constituíron a rede de Gobernos pola Economía do Benestar,

whose aim is to foster ecological and human well-being

co obxectivo de promover o benestar ecolóxico e humano

as well as economic growth.

ademais do crecemento económico.

Practically speaking,

Na práctica,

these countries are already discussing things like well-being budgeting,

estes países están xa a falar de cousas como orzamentos do benestar,

well-being-led tourism,

turismo do benestar,

and using the well-being framework in the fight against COVID.

e están empregando o marco do benestar na loita contra a COVID.

Now, these three countries are about as geographically distant

Son tres países xeograficamente moi distantes

and diverse as you can get,

e moi distintos entre si,

but they've come together

que, sen embargo, se xuntaron

on the basis of a shared value,

en torno a un valor compartido:

which is a common understanding

coinciden en entender

that there is more to government policy

que as políticas gubernamentais

than merely GDP.

son máis ca simplemente o PIB.

Similarly, in the future,

De forma similar, no futuro,

other small countries and city-states --

outros países pequenos e cidades-estado

Singapore, Switzerland, the United Arab Emirates --

--Singapur, Suíza, Emiratos Árabes Unidos--

will find that they have more in common with each other

descubrirán que teñen máis en común entre si

than with their larger neighbors.

ca cos seus veciños máis grandes.

They're all global financial centers.

Son centros financeiros globais.

They all invest in strategic planning.

Todos invisten en planificación estratéxica.

And they are all geopolitical micropowers

E son micropotencias xeopolíticas.

and will collaborate more as a result.

En consecuencia, colaborarán máis.

Another good example

Outro bo exemplo

of how values, rather than geography,

de que son os valores, e non a xeografía,

will increasingly shape destinies and alliances is Europe.

o que determinará cada vez máis os destinos e as alianzas é Europa.

During the period of globalization,

Durante o período da globalización,

one of the key phenomena

un dos fenómenos clave

was the eastward expansion of the European Union.

foi a expansión da Unión Europea cara ao leste.

From 2004, it added 13 new members,

Desde 2004 incorporou 13 novos membros,

despite the near existential crisis of the euro,

malia a crise existencial do euro,

constant pressure from Russia,

da presión constante de Rusia

and of course the trauma of Brexit.

e, por suposto, do trauma do Brexit.

And, like a company that has grown too fast,

E, como calquera empresa que medrou demasiado rápido,

Europe needs to stop

Europa necesita pararse a pensar

and think about where it's going

cara a onde vai

and ask whether its values can steer it in the right direction.

e preguntarse se os seus valores a levan na dirección correcta.

And this is beginning to happen,

Isto está comezando a pasar,

albeit slowly.

aínda que amodo.

European leaders talk a lot about European values,

Os líderes europeos falan moito de valores europeos,

but frankly most Europeans,

pero, con franqueza, a maioría dos europeos,

be they German, Greek, Latvian or Spaniards,

sexan alemáns, gregos, letóns ou españois,

really don't know or have a clear idea what those shared common values

en realidade non teñen unha idea clara de cales se supón que son

eses valores comúns que comparten.

are supposed to be.

So European politicians need to do a very good job

Así que os políticos europeos teñen que facer moi ben o seu traballo

of asking them how they feel about these common values

e preguntarlles que senten en relación con eses valores comúns

and then communicating the answers back to them

e logo comunicarlles as respostas

in a clear and tangible way.

de forma clara e concreta.

And of course social media is a very important tool to deploy here.

E, por suposto, para iso os medios sociais son unha ferramenta moi importante.

And as Europe moves [towards] a union that's based more on values

A medida que Europa avanza cara a unha unión baseada máis en valores

and less on geography,

e menos na xeografía,

its contours

a súa contorna

and those values themselves

e os valores mesmos

will increasingly be defined

definiranse cada vez máis

by the tension between Brussels

pola tensión entre Bruxelas

and countries like Hungary and Poland,

e países como Hungría e Polonia,

who are increasingly behaving in ways

que se comportan cada vez máis

that go against basic values

de xeitos que contradin valores fundamentais

such as respect for democracy

como o respeto pola democracia

and the rule of law.

e o estado de dereito.

The treatment of women and the LGBT community

O tratamento das mulleres e da comunidade LGBT

are other important markers here.

son outros marcadores importantes.

And in time Europe will, and should,

Co tempo, Europa condicionará

tie financial aid to these countries

a axuda financeira a estes países

and policy

e as súas políticas

to their adherence to Europe's shared values.

á adhesión aos valores europeos comúns.

And these countries, and others in Eastern Europe, and Cyprus,

Estes países, xunto con outros de Europa do leste e Chipre,

still have close financial ties to Russia and China.

seguen a ter fortes lazos financeiros con Rusia e China.

And again in time they will be forced to choose

De novo, co tempo veranse forzados a escoller

between Europe and its values

entre Europa e os seus valores

and these other countries and their own distinct values.

e estoutros países e os seus propios valores distintivos.

Like Europe, China is another big player

Como Europa, China xoga tamén un papel importante

with a very distinct set of values,

e ten uns valores distintivos,

or contract between the people and the state.

un contrato entre o pobo e o estado.

And I have to say that this set of values

E debo dicir que estes valores

is not one that is well-understood

non se entenden de todo

in the West.

en Occidente.

And given China's extraordinary economic and social transformation

A extraordinaria transformación económica e social de China

in the last 30 years,

nos últimos 30 anos

we should really be more curious.

debería estimular a nosa curiosidade.

China's values are rooted deep in its history,

Os valores de China están profundamente arraigados na súa historia,

in a desire to regain the place

co desexo de recuperar o lugar

it once enjoyed hundreds of years ago

que ocupou hai centos de anos

when its economy was the dominant one.

cando a súa economía dominaba.

Indeed, Xi Jinping talked of the China Dream

Xi Jinping falaba do Soño Chinés

well before Donald Trump was elected

moito antes de que Donald Trump gañase as eleccións

with the catchphrase "Make America Great Again."

co slogan "Recuperemos a Grandeza de Estados Unidos".

And China's system, viewed from the outside,

O sistema chinés, visto desde fóra,

is based around a contract or a bargain

baséase nun contrato ou un pacto

where people will sacrifice their liberty

no que a xente sacrifica a súa liberdade

in return for order, prosperity and national prestige.

a cambio de orde, prosperidade e prestixio nacional.

It's one where the state is very much in control,

O Estado contrólao todo,

which is something that most Europeans and Americans would find alien.

o que moitos europeos e estadounidenses atoparían moi estraño.

It's also a system that has worked very well for China.

É un sistema que lle funcionou moi ben a China.

But the biggest risk it faces

Pero o maior perigo ao que se enfronta

is a period of high and prolonged unemployment

é un período prolongado con altos niveis de desemprego

that will break this contract

que rompa ese contrato

between the state and the people.

entre o Estado e a xente.

And for other countries,

Para outros países,

China can be an attractive partner.

China pode resultar un socio atractivo.

It can provide capital and know-how.

Pode aportar capital e coñecementos.

I'm thinking for example of Pakistan and Sri Lanka,

Penso, por exemplo, en Paquistán e Sri Lanka,

two members of the Belt and Road program.

dous dos membros do programa Franxa e Ruta.

But this partnership comes at a price;

Pero esta asociación ten un prezo:

they're beholden to Chinese technologies

contraen unha obriga con tecnoloxías chinesas

such as the controversial Huawei.

como a controvertida Huawei.

Chinese investors own their debt,

Os inversores chineses son os donos da súa débeda

and as a result control key infrastructure

e, como consecuencia, controlan infraestruturas clave

such as the main port in Sri Lanka.

como o porto principal de Sri Lanka.

Now I find that when we talk about globalization,

Observo que cando falamos de globalización,

the end of globalization and the new world order,

da fin da globalización e a nova orde mundial,

we spend far too much time discussing America, Europe and China,

dedicamos demasiado tempo a falar de Estados Unidos, Europa e China,

and not enough time on the many exciting things

e non falamos abondo das moitas cousas apaixonantes

happening in fast-growing economies,

que están a acontecer nas economías emerxentes,

from Ethiopia, Nigeria, to Indonesia, Bangladesh, Mexico and Brazil.

desde Etiopía, Nixeria ata Indonesia, Bangladesh, México ou o Brasil.

And in the new world order, the question for these countries

E na nova orde mundial, a cuestión para estes países

is what model to follow and what alliances to build.

é que modelo seguir e que alianzas construír.

And many of them during the period of globalization

Moitos deles, na etapa da globalización,

had become used to being told what to do

afixéranse a recibir instrucións,

by the likes of the IMF, the International Monetary Fund.

por exemplo, do FMI, o Fondo Monetario Internacional.

But the age of condescension is now over,

Pero a era da condescendencia rematou,

so the tangible opportunity

así que a oportunidade clara

in a less uniform,

nun mundo menos uniforme

more value-driven world for these countries

e máis centrado nos valores para estes países

is that they have much greater choice in the path to follow,

é que teñen moito máis onde escoller en canto ao camiño a seguir,

and arguably greater pressure to get it right.

e seguramente máis presión para acertar.

So should, for example, Belarus and Lebanon

Así que, por exemplo, Belarús e o Líbano

follow the Irish model or that of Dubai?

deberían seguir o modelo irlandés ou o de Dubai?

Does Nigeria still think it has shared values

Nixeria segue a pensar que comparte valores

with the Commonwealth countries,

cos países da Commonwealth,

or will it ally itself and its fast-growing population

ou, cunha poboación en rápido crecemento,

to China and its model?

aliarase con China e o seu modelo?

And then think of one of the few female leaders in Africa,

E pensade nunha das poucas mulleres que gobernan países africanos,

President Sahle-Work Zewde of Ethiopia,

a presidenta de Etiopía, Sahle-Work Zewde.

and whether she might be inspired

Atopará inspiración

by the work of Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand

no traballo de Jacinda Ardern en Nova Zelandia

or Nicola Sturgeon in Scotland,

ou no de Nicola Sturgeon en Escocia?

and tangibly how she can transfer their example

E como pode trasladar o seu exemplo

to policy in Ethiopia.

ás súas políticas en Etiopía?

Of course, it may be that in this new world order,

Por suposto, é tamén posible que nesta nova orde mundial

countries like Kenya and Indonesia

países como Kenya ou Indonesia

decide to go their own way

decidan seguir o seu propio camiño

and build out their own value sets

e constrúan o seu sistema de valores

and their own economic infrastructure,

e a súa propia infraestrutura económica,

and in this way the arrangements and the institutions of the future

de xeito que os acordos e as institucións do futuro

will be crafted much less in Washington and Beijing,

se deseñen non tanto en Washington e Beijing

but really by countries like Tunisia and Cambodia,

como en países como Tunisia ou Camboxa,

comparing notes on how to battle corruption through technology,

comparando notas sobre tecnoloxías para combater a corrupción,

how to build education and health care systems

sobre a construción de sistemas educativos e sanitarios

for burgeoning populations,

para poboacións en rápido aumento

and how to make their voice heard

e sobre como facerse escoitar

on the world stage.

no escenario mundial.

So as globalization ends

Así que agora que remata a globalización

and chaos seems to reign,

e semella reinar o caos,

these countries, their young populations

estes países e os seus xoves habitantes

and the scope they have to build new societies

e a marxe da que dispoñen para construír novas sociedades

are the future

son o futuro

and the promise of the new world order.

e a promesa dunha nova orde mundial.

Thank you.

Grazas.