How the pandemic will shape the near future | Bill Gates

Chris Anderson: Welcome, Bill Gates.

Prevodilac: Sandra Zerjal Lektor: Ivana Korom

Kris Anderson: Dobrodošli, Bil Gejts.

Bill Gates: Thank you.

Bil Gejts: Hvala.

CA: Alright. It's great to have you here, Bill.

KA: Dobro. Sjajno je sšto ste ovde, Bil.

You know, we had a TED conversation about three months ago

Znate, vodili smo TED razgovor pre oko tri meseca

about this pandemic,

u vezi sa ovom pandemijom,

and back then, I think fewer than -- I think that was the end of March --

i tada, mislim da je manje - mislim da je to bilo krajem marta -

back then, fewer than 1,000 people in the US had died

tada je manje od 1000 ljudi umrlo u Americi

and fewer than 20,000 worldwide.

i manje od 20 000 širom sveta.

I mean, the numbers now are, like, 128,000 dead in the US

Mislim, brojevi sada su otprilike 128 000 umrlih u SAD

and more than half a million worldwide,

i više od pola miliona širom sveta,

in three months.

u tri meseca.

In three months.

U tri meseca.

What is your diagnosis of what is possible for the rest of this year?

Koja je Vaša dijagnoza, šta je moguće do kraja godine?

You look at a lot of models.

Gledate različite modele.

What do you think best- and worst-case scenarios might be?

Šta mislite, koji je najbolji i najgori scenario moguć?

BG: Well, the range of scenarios, sadly, is quite large,

BG: Pa, spektar scenarija je, nažalost, veoma širok,

including that, as we get into the fall,

uključujući i to, da kako ulazimo u jesen,

we could have death rates that rival the worst of what we had

mogli bismo imati stopu smrtnosti koja parira onoj koju smo imali

in the April time period.

tokom aprila.

If you get a lot of young people infected,

Ako se zarazi mnogo mladih,

eventually, they will infect old people again,

vremenom, oni će zaraziti starije ljude ponovo,

and so you'll get into the nursing homes,

i biće slučajeva u domovima za stare,

the homeless shelters,

u prihvatilištima za beskućnike

the places where we've had a lot of our deaths.

na mestima gde smo imali mnogo umrlih.

The innovation track, which probably we'll touch on --

Put do inovacije, koji ćemo verovatno dotaknuti -

diagnostics, therapeutics, vaccines --

dijagnostika, terapija, vakcine -

there's good progress there,

tu ima napretka,

but nothing that would fundamentally alter the fact

ali ništa što bi značajno izmenilo činjenicu

that this fall in the United States could be quite bad,

da ova jesen u SAD može biti jako loša,

and that's worse than I would have expected a month ago,

i to je gore nego što bih očekivao pre mesec dana,

the degree to which we're back at high mobility,

stepen na koji smo se vratili usled uvećane pokretljivosti,

not wearing masks,

nenošenja maski,

and now the virus actually has gotten into a lot of cities

i sada je virus dospeo u mnoge gradove

that it hadn't been in before in a significant way,

u kojima ranije nije postojao u značajnoj meri,

so it's going to be a challenge.

tako da će biti izazovno.

There's no case where we get much below the current death rate,

Ne postoji scenario u kome možemo doći mnogo ispod trenutne stope smrtnosti

which is about 500 deaths a day,

koja je oko 500 umrlih dnevno,

but there's a significant risk we'd go back up

ali postoji značajan rizik da odemo iznad

to the even 2,000 a day that we had before,

do čak 2 000 dnevno što smo imali ranije,

because we don't have the distancing,

pošto ne održavamo distancu,

the behavior change,

nema promene ponašanja,

to the degree that we had in April and May.

do stepena koji smo imali u aprilu i maju.

And we know this virus is somewhat seasonal,

I znamo da je ovaj virus donekle sezonski,

so that the force of infection,

tako da će infektivnost,

both through temperature, humidity, more time indoors,

usled temperature, vlažnosti, većeg boravka unutra,

will be worse as we get into the fall.

biti veća kako ulazimo u jesen.

CA: So there are scenarios where in the US,

KA: Dakle postoje scenariji u kojima ćemo u SAD,

like, if you extrapolate those numbers forward,

ako pratimo taj trend brojeva,

we end up with, what,

završiti sa,

more than a quarter of a million deaths, perchance,

više od 250 000 umrlih,

even this year if we're not careful,

čak i ove godine, ako ne budemo pažljivi,

and worldwide, I guess the death toll could, by the end of the year,

i širom sveta, pretpostavljam, broj umrlih do kraja godine,

be well into the millions, with an "s."

bi premašio milione.

Is there evidence that the hotter temperatures of the summer

Ima li dokaza da nam više temperature tokom leta

actually have been helping us?

zaista pomažu?

BG: They're not absolutely sure,

BG: Nisu u potpunosti sigurni,

but certainly, the IHME model definitely wanted to use the season,

ali trenutno, IHME model želi da iskoristi sezonu,

including temperature and humidity,

uključujući temperaturu i vlažnost,

to try and explain why May wasn't worse than it was.

da objasne zašto u maju nije bilo gore nego što je bilo.

And so as we came out and the mobility numbers got higher,

I kada smo počeli izlaziti i taj broj se povećavao,

the models expected more infections and deaths to come out of that,

po modelu se očekivao porast infekcije a time i smrtnosti,

and the model kept wanting to say,

i model je nastavljao da govori:

"But I need to use this seasonality

"Moramo koristiti ovu sezonu

to match why May wasn't worse,

da uporedimo zašto u maju nije bilo gore,

why June wasn't worse than it was."

zasto u junu nije bilo gore nego što je bilo."

And we see in the Southern Hemisphere,

I vidimo na Južnoj hemisferi,

you know, Brazil,

znate, Brazil,

which is the opposite season,

gde je suprotno godišnje doba,

now all of South America is having a huge epidemic.

sada cela Južna Amerika ima ogromnu epidemiju.

South Africa is having a very fast-growing epidemic.

Južna Afrika ima veoma brzorastuću epidemiju.

Fortunately, Australia and New Zealand,

Na sreću, Australija i Novi Zeland,

the last countries in the Southern Hemisphere,

najdalje zemlje na južnoj hemisferi

are at really tiny case counts,

imaju zaista jako mali broj slučajeva,

and so although they have to keep knocking it down,

pa iako moraju da ih obaraju,

they're talking about, "Oh, we have 10 cases,

oni kažu: "O, imamo 10 slučajeva,

that's a big deal, let's go get rid of that."

to je velika stvar, hajde da ih uklonimo."

So they're one of these amazing countries that got the numbers so low

Dakle to su jedne od onih sjajnih zemalja koje su smanjile svoje brojeve

that test, quarantine and trace

koje testiraju, uvode karantin i prate

is working to get them, keep them at very near zero.

kako bi otkrili slučajeve, drže ih blizu nule.

CA: Aided perhaps a bit by being easier to isolate

KA: Možda je tome doprinela njihova udaljenost

and by less density, less population density.

i manja naseljenost, gustina naseljenosti.

But nonetheless, smart policies down there.

Ali bez obzira na to, pametna politika.

BG: Yeah, everything is so exponential

BG: Da, sve je tako eksponencijalno

that a little bit of good work goes a long way.

da i malo dobrog posla daje dugoročno dobre rezultate.

It's not a linear game.

To nije linearna igra.

You know, contact tracing, if you have the number of cases we have in the US,

Znate, praćenje kontakata, ako imate broj slučajeva kao mi u Americi,

it's super important to do,

veoma je važno da to radite,

but it won't get you back down to zero.

ali vas to neće dovesti do nule.

It'll help you be down,

Pomoći će da se smanje,

but it's too overwhelming.

ali to je toliko nekontrolisano.

CA: OK, so in May and June in the US,

KA: OK, dakle u maju i junu u SAD,

the numbers were slightly better than some of the models predicted,

brojevi su bili malo bolji od predviđenog,

and it's hypothesized that that might be partly because of the warmer weather.

i pretpostavljalo se da je možda tako delimično zbog toplijeg vremena.

Now we're seeing, really, would you describe it

Sada vidimo, zaista, kako biste to opisali -

as really quite alarming upticks in case rates in the US?

veoma zabrinjavajuć porast slučajeva u SAD?

BG: That's right, it's --

BG: Tako je -

In, say, the New York area,

Recimo, u oblasti Njujork,

the cases continue to go down somewhat,

slučajevi nekako nastavljaju da opadaju

but in other parts of the country,

ali u drugim delovima zemlje,

primarily the South right now,

prvenstveno na jugu, trenutno

you have increases that are offsetting that,

imate povećanje koje to nadoknađuje,

and you have testing-positive rates in young people

i imate stopu pozitivno testiranih među mladima

that are actually higher than what we saw even in some of the tougher areas.

koja je zapravo viša od one koju smo videli u nekim od zaraženijih oblasti.

And so, clearly, younger people have come out of mobility

Dakle, jasno, mladi su postali mobilniji

more than older people have increased their mobility,

više od starijih

so the age structure is right now very young,

tako da je starosna stuktura trenutno mlada,

but because of multigenerational households,

ali usled višegeneracijskih domaćinstava,

people work in nursing care homes,

ljudi koji rade u domovima za stare,

unfortunately, that will work its way back,

nažalost, pronaći će svoj put nazad,

both the time lag and the transmission,

i inkubacija i prenos,

back up into the elderly,

ponovo do starijih,

will start to push the death rate back up,

i počeće da se povećava stopa smrtnosti,

which, it is down --

koja je spala -

way down from 2,000 to around 500 right now.

dosta ispod 2 000 na oko 500 trenutno.

CA: And is that partly because there's a three-week lag

KA: Da li je to delimično i zato što postoji period od tri nedelje

between case numbers and fatality numbers?

između brojeva zaraženih i umrlih?

And also, perhaps, partly because

I takođe, delimično i zbog toga

there have been some effective interventions,

što je bilo nekih efikasnih intervencija,

and we're actually seeing the possibility

i zapravo vidimo mogućnost

that the overall fatality rate is actually falling a bit

da ukupna stopa smrtnosti zapravo malo opada,

now that we've gained some extra knowledge?

sada kada imamo neka dodatna saznanja?

BG: Yeah, certainly your fatality rate is always lower

BG: Da, svakako je stopa smrtnosti uvek niža

when you're not overloaded.

kada niste preopterećeni.

And so Italy, when they were overloaded,

Pa tako u Italiji, kada su bili preopterećeni,

Spain, even New York at the start,

Španiji, pa čak i Njujorku na početku,

certainly China,

naravno u Kini,

there you weren't even able to provide the basics,

tamo niste bili u mogućnosti da obezbedite najosnovnije,

the oxygen and things.

kiseonik i druge stvari.

A study that our foundation funded in the UK

Studija koju je naša fondacija sprovela u Engleskoj

found the only thing other than remdesivir

ustanovila je da jedino pored leka remdesivir,

that is a proven therapeutic,

koji se pokazao delotvornim,

which is the dexamethasone,

lek deksametazon,

that for serious patients,

za ozbiljno obolele,

is about a 20 percent death reduction,

smanjuje smrtnost za oko 20 posto,

and there's still quite a pipeline of those things.

i još niz drugih stvari.

You know, hydroxychloroquine never established positive data,

Znate, hidroksihlorokvin nikada nije dao pozitivne podatke,

so that's pretty much done.

tako da je to uglavnom gotovo.

There's still a few trials ongoing,

Ima još nekih ispitivanja,

but the list of things being tried,

ali lista isprobanih stvari,

including, eventually, the monoclonal antibodies,

uključujući i monoklonalna antitela,

we will have some additional tools for the fall.

imaćemo i neke dodatne stvari za jesen.

And so when you talk about death rates,

I tako kada govorimo o stopi smrtnosti,

the good news is, some innovation we already have,

dobra vest je, imamo već neke inovacije,

and we'll have more, even in the fall.

i imaćemo ih još na jesen.

We should start to have monoclonal antibodies,

Trebalo bi da imamo monoklonalna antitela,

which is the single therapeutic that I'm most excited about.

što je terapija zbog koje se najviše radujem.

CA: I'll actually ask you to tell me a bit more about that in one sec,

KA: O tome ću Vas pitati da mi malo više kažete za sekund,

but just putting the pieces together on death rates:

ali da samo rezimiramo oko stope smrtnosti:

so in a well-functioning health system,

dakle u funkcionalnom zdravstvenom sistemu,

so take the US when places aren't overcrowded,

uzmimo npr. u SAD kad nije preopterećen,

what do you think

šta mislite

the current fatality numbers are, approximately, going forward,

koliki je broj umrlih, otprilike

like as a percentage of total cases?

u procentima?

Are we below one percent, perhaps?

Da li smo možda ispod jedan posto?

BG: If you found every case, yes,

BG: Ako ste pronašli svaki slučaj, da,

you're well below one percent.

dosta smo ispod jedan posto.

People argue, you know, 0.4, 0.5.

Ljudi tvrde, znate, 0,4 ili 0,5 posto.

By the time you bring in the never symptomatics,

Do momenta kada uračunate i asimptomatske,

it probably is below 0.5,

verovatno je i ispod 0,5 posto,

and that's good news.

i to je dobra vest.

This disease could have been a five-percent disease.

Ova bolest je mogla biti i bolest od pet posto.

The transmission dynamics of this disease

Dinamika prenošenja ove bolesti

are more difficult than even the experts predicted.

je teža nego što su i eksperti predvideli.

The amount of presymptomatic and never symptomatic spread

Broj onih koji su presimptomatski i asimptomatski raste

and the fact that it's not coughing,

i činjenica da to nije kašalj,

where you would kind of notice, "Hey, I'm coughing" --

koji biste primetili, rekli: "Hej, ja kašljem" -

most respiratory diseases make you cough.

većina respiratornih infekcija izaziva kašalj.

This one, in its early stages, it's not coughing,

Kod ove, u svojoj ranoj fazi, to nije kašalj.

it's singing, laughing, talking,

to je pevanje, smejanje, razgovor,

actually, still, particularly for the super-spreaders,

zapravo, posebno za super-prenosioce,

people with very high viral loads,

ljude sa velikom količinom virusa u sebi,

causes that spread,

and that's pretty novel,

uzrokuju širenje,

i to je dosta neuobičajno.

and so even the experts have to say, "Wow, this caught us by surprise."

Tako i stručnjaci moraju da kažu, "Oho, uhvatilo nas je nespremne."

The amount of asymptomatic spread

Količina asimptomatskog širenja

and the fact that there's not a coughing element

i činjenica da nema kašlja,

is not a major piece like the flu or TB.

da nije glavni deo kao kod gripa ili tuberkuloze.

CA: Yeah, that is devilish cunning by the virus.

KA: Da, to je đavolski lukavo od virusa.

I mean, how much is that nonsymptomatic transmission

Koliki je taj asimptomatski prenos

as a percentage of total transmission?

procentualno, od ukupne transmisije?

I've heard numbers it could be as much as half of all transmissions

Čuo sam brojke da bi moglo biti i da je polovina od ukupne transmisije

are basically presymptomatic.

zapravo presimptomatska.

BG: Yeah, if you count presymptomatics,

BG: Da, ako računate presimptomatske,

then most of the studies show that's like at 40 percent,

većina istraživanja pokazuje da je to oko 40 posto,

and we also have never symptomatics.

a imamo, takođe i asimptomatske.

The amount of virus you get in your upper respiratory area

Količina virusa koju primite u gornjim disajnim putevima

is somewhat disconnected.

na neki način je nepovezana.

Some people will have a lot here and very little in their lungs,

Neki ljudi će ga imati puno tu, a vrlo malo u plućima,

and what you get in your lungs causes the really bad symptoms --

i šta dopre u pluća izaziva veoma teške simptome -

and other organs, but mostly the lungs --

i drugim organima, ali najviše u plućima,

and so that's when you seek treatment.

i tada tražite lečenje.

And so the worst case in terms of spreading

I tako najgori slučaj u smislu prenosivosti je

is somebody who's got a lot in the upper respiratory tract

ako ga neko ima puno u gornjim disajnim putevima

but almost none in their lungs,

a skoro ništa u plućima,

so they're not care-seeking.

i zbog toga ne traže lečenje.

CA: Right.

KA: Dobro.

And so if you add in the never symptomatic

I ako dodamo asimptomatske

to the presymptomatic,

presimptomatskim,

do you get above 50 percent of the transmission

da li dobijamo da je više od 50 procenata prenosivosti

is actually from nonsymptomatic people?

zapravo od asimptomatskih osoba?

BG: Yeah, transmission is harder to measure.

BG: Da, prenosivost je teže meriti.

You know, we see certain hotspots and things,

Znate, mi vidimo određena žarišta i stvari,

but that's a huge question with the vaccine:

ali to je veliko pitanje sa vakcinama:

Will it, besides avoiding you getting sick,

da li će, pored toga što ćete izbeći da se razbolite,

which is what the trial will test,

što će proba testirati,

will it also stop you from being a transmitter?

da li će vas zaustaviti da budete prenosilac?

CA: So that vaccine,

KA: Ta vakcina,

it's such an important question, let's come on to that.

to je tako važno pitanje, doći ćemo do toga.

But before we go there,

Ali pre nego što dođemo do toga,

any other surprises in the last couple months

da li je bilo drugih iznenađenja ovih poslednjih meseci

that we've learned about this virus

koja smo naučili o virusu,

that really impact how we should respond to it?

koja mogu uticati na to kako treba da odgovorimo na njega?

BG: We're still not able to characterize who the super-spreaders are

BG: Još uvek ne možemo da odredimo ko su super-prenosioci

in terms of what that profile is,

u smislu koji bi to bio profil,

and we may never.

i možda nikada ni nećemo.

That may just be quite random.

Može biti potpuno nasumično.

If you could identify them,

Ako ih možemo identifikovati,

they're responsible for the majority of transmission,

oni su odgovorni za većinu prenosa,

a few people who have very high viral loads.

nekolicina ljudi koja ima veoma visoku infektivnost.

But sadly, we haven't figured that out.

Ali nažalost, nismo to ustanovili.

This mode of transmission,

Ovaj model prenosivosti,

if you're in a room and nobody talks,

ako ste u prostoriji i niko ne govori,

there's way less transmission.

mnogo je manje prenosa.

That's partly why, although planes can transmit,

Zato delimično, iako se može preneti i u avionu,

it's less than you would expect just in terms of time proximity measures,

manje je nego očekivano, samo u smislu vremenskih odrednica,

because unlike, say, a choir or a restaurant,

zato što, za razliku od recimo hora ili restorana,

you're not exhaling in loud talking

ne izdišemo u glasnom razgovoru

quite as much as in other indoor environments.

kao i u drugim zatvorenim prostorima.

CA: Hmm.

KA: Hmm.

What do you think about the ethics of someone who would go on a plane

Koje je Vaše mišljenje o etici nekoga ko bi leteo avionom

and refuse to wear a mask?

i odbio da nosi masku?

BG: If they own the plane, that would be fine.

BG: Ako su vlasnici aviona, onda je to u redu.

If there's other people on the plane,

Ako ima drugih ljudi u avionu,

that would be endangering those other people.

to bi bilo ugrožavanje ostalih ljudi.

CA: Early on in the pandemic,

KA: Na početku pandemije,

the WHO did not advise that people wear masks.

SZO nije savetovala ljude da nose maske.

They were worried about taking them away from frontline medical providers.

Brinuli su se da ih neće biti dovoljno za snabdevanje bolnica.

In retrospect, was that a terrible mistake that they made?

U retrospektivi, da li je to bila velika greška koju su napravili?

BG: Yes.

BG: Da.

All the experts feel bad that the value of masks --

Svi stučnjaci se osećaju loše u vezi važnosti maski -

which ties back somewhat to the asymptomatics;

što se donekle vezuje za asimptomatske prenosioce;

if people were very symptomatic,

ako su ljudi bili sa izraženim simptomima,

like an Ebola,

kao kod Ebole,

then you know it and you isolate,

onda to znate i izolujete ih,

and so you don't have a need for a masklike thing.

i tada nemate potrebu za maskama.

The value of masks,

Važnost maski,

the fact that the medical masks was a different supply chain

činjenica da se medicinske maske nabavljaju od različitih dobavljača

than the normal masks,

od običnih maski,

the fact you could scale up the normal masks so well,

činjenica da možete proizvoditi normalne maske,

the fact that it would stop that presymptomatic,

činjenica da bi to zaustavilo one presimptomatske,

never symptomatic transmission,

nikad simptomatske.

it's a mistake.

To je greška.

But it's not a conspiracy.

Ali to nije zavera.

It's something that, we now know more.

To je nešto o čemu sada znamo više.

And even now, our error bars on the benefit of masks

Čak i sada, naša greška u shvatanju važnosti maski

are higher than we'd like to admit,

je veća nego što želimo da priznamo,

but it's a significant benefit.

ali njihova važnost je velika.

CA: Alright, I'm going to come in with some questions

KA: Dobro. Počeću sa nekim pitanjima zajednice.

from the community.

Let's pull them up there.

Hajde da ih pogledamo.

Jim Pitofsky, "Do you think reopening efforts in the US have been premature,

Džim Pitofski: "Da li mislite da je u SAD ponovno otvaranje preuranjeno,

and if so, how far should the US go to responsibly confront this pandemic?"

i ako jeste, koliko daleko bi SAD trebale da idu u suzbijanju pandemije?"

BG: Well, the question of how you make trade-offs

BG: Pa, pitanje je kako praviti kompromis

between the benefits, say, of going to school

između, recimo, odlaska u školu

versus the risk of people getting sick because they go to school,

naspram rizika da se razbolite jer idete u školu,

those are very tough questions

to su veoma teška pitanja

that I don't think any single person can say,

i mislim da niko ne može da kaže:

"I will tell you how to make all these trade-offs."

"Ja ću vam reći kako da napravite kompromise."

The understanding of where you have transmission,

Razumeti odakle dolazi virus

and the fact that young people do get infected

i da se i mladi mogu zaraziti

and are part of the multigenerational transmission chain,

i da su deo lanca prenosa,

we should get that out.

to treba isticati.

If you just look at the health aspect,

Ako posmatrate samo zdravstveni aspekt,

we have opened up too liberally.

otvorili smo se prilično liberalno,

Now, opening up in terms of mental health

Otvaranje u smislu mentalnog zdravlja

and seeking normal health things like vaccines or other care,

i normalni zdravstveni zahtevi kao vakcina i drugo,

there are benefits.

ima koristi.

I think some of our opening up has created more risk than benefit.

Mislim da su neka otvaranja napravila više rizika nego koristi.

Opening the bars up as quickly as they did,

Otvaranje kafića tako brzo kao što je urađeno,

you know, is that critical for mental health?

da li je to toliko značajno za mentalno zdravlje?

Maybe not.

Možda ne.

So I don't think we've been as tasteful about opening up

Mislim da ne bismo bili tako naklonjeni otvaranju

as I'm sure, as we study it,

jer dok ga proučavamo,

that we'll realize some things we shouldn't have opened up as fast.

shvatićemo da neke stvari nije trebalo da otvorimo tako brzo.

But then you have something like school,

Ali onda imate škole,

where even sitting here today,

gde čak i danas,

the exact plan, say, for inner-city schools for the fall,

tačan plan, za škole u centrima gradova na proleće,

I wouldn't have a black-and-white view

ne bih imao crno-beli pogled

on the relative trade-offs involved there.

na kompromise koji se prave.

There are huge benefits to letting those kids go to school,

Ima velikih prednosti da se deca puste u škole,

and how do you weigh the risk?

i kako merite taj rizik?

If you're in a city without many cases,

Ako ste u gradu gde nema mnogo slučajeva,

I would say probably the benefit is there.

rekao bih da je korisno.

Now that means that you could get surprised.

Ipak se može dogoditi iznenađenje.

The cases could show up, and then you'd have to change that,

Slučajevi se mogu pojaviti, i onda morate to menjati,

which is not easy.

što nije jednostavno.

But I think around the US,

Ali mislim da u SAD,

there will be places where that won't be a good trade-off.

biće mesta gde neće biti dobrih kompromisa.

So almost any dimension of inequity,

Skoro sve nejednakosti

this disease has made worse:

biće povećane ovom bolešću:

job type, internet connection,

vrsta posla, internet veze,

ability of your school to do online learning.

mogućnosti škola za online nastavu.

White-collar workers,

Kancelarijski radnici,

people are embarrassed to admit it,

ljudi se ustručavaju da to priznaju,

some of them are more productive

neki od njih su produktivniji

and enjoying the flexibility that the at-home thing has created,

i uživaju pogodnosti koje nudi rad od kuće,

and that feels terrible

i to je strašno,

when you know lots of people are suffering in many ways,

kada znaš da mnogi ljudi pate na razne načine,

including their kids not going to school.

uključujući i to da njihova deca ne idu u školu.

CA: Indeed. Let's have the next question.

KA: Zaista. Evo sledećeg pitanja.

[Nathalie Munyampenda] "For us in Rwanda,

[Natali Muniampeda] "Za nas u Ruandi,

early policy interventions have made the difference.

rana državna intervencija napravila je razliku.

At this point, what policy interventions do you suggest for the US now?"

U ovom momentu, koju državnu intervenciju predlažete za SAD?"

Bill, I dream of the day where you are appointed

Bil, sanjam dan kada će Vas imenovati

the coronavirus czar

"Koronavirus gospodarom"

with authority to actually speak to the public.

sa vlašću da se zapravo obratite javnosti.

What would you do?

Šta biste uradili?

BG: Well, the innovation tools

BG: Moderna sredstva

are where I and the foundation probably has the most expertise.

su nešto gde smo ja i fondacija verovatno najstručniji.

Clearly, some of the policies on opening up have been too generous,

Jasno je, da su se neke države, velikodušno, prebrzo otvorile

but I think everybody

ali ja mislim da se svi

could engage in that.

mogu angažovati.

We need leadership

Potrebno nam je vođstvo

in terms of admitting that we've still got a huge problem here

u smislu da prizna da smo i dalje u velikom problemu,

and not turning that into almost a political thing

a ne da to pretvara u političko pitanje tipa:

of, "Oh, isn't it brilliant what we did?"

"Zar nije sjajno to šta smo uradili?"

No, it's not brilliant,

Ne, nije sjajno,

but there's many people, including the experts --

ali ima mnogo ljudi, uključujući i eksperte -

there's a lot they didn't understand,

ima dosta toga što nisu razumeli,

and everybody wishes a week earlier whatever action they took,

i svi žele prošlu nedelju, koju god akciju da su preduzeli,

they'd taken that a week earlier.

da su je preduzeli nedelju dana ranije.

The innovation tools,

Inovativne metode,

that's where the foundation's work

na tome radi naša fondacija

on antibodies, vaccines,

na antitelima, vakcinama,

we have deep expertise,

imamo detaljne ekspertize,

and it's outside of the private sector,

i to van privatnog sektora,

and so we have kind of a neutral ability to work with all the governments

tako da imamo nezavisnost da radimo sa svim vladama

and the companies to pick.

i da biramo kompanije.

Particularly when you're doing break-even products,

Posebno kada radite neprofitne proizvode,

which one should get the resources?

kojem od njih da dodelite sredstva?

There's no market signal for that.

Nema signala tržišta za to.

Experts have to say, "OK, this antibody deserves the manufacturing.

Stručnjak mora da kaže: "OK, ova antitela zaslužuju proizvodnju.

This vaccine deserves the manufacturing,"

Ova vakcina zaslužuje da se proizvede."

because we have very limited manufacturing for both of those things,

Zato što imamo veoma ograničenu proizvodnju obe stvari,

postojaće "unakrsne" kompanije, što obično nije slučaj,

and it'll be cross-company, which never happens in the normal case,

where one company invents it

gde će jedna kompanija to izmisliti,

and then you're using the manufacturing plants of many companies

a onda vi koristite proizvodnju drugih kompanija

to get maximum scale of the best choice.

za maksimalnu proizvodnju najboljeg proizvoda.

So I would be coordinating those things,

Ja bih koordinirao te stvari,

but we need a leader who keeps us up to date,

ali nam je potreban vođa koji bi nas obaveštavao,

is realistic

koji je realan,

and shows us the right behavior,

i pokazao nam ispravno ponašanje

as well as driving the innovation track.

istovremeno održavajući inovacijski put.

CA: I mean, you have to yourself be a master diplomat

KA: Morate biti vrhunski diplomata

in how you talk about this stuff.

u tome na koji način pričate o ovim stvarima.

So I appreciate, almost, the discomfort here.

Skoro da razumem nelagodnost koja ovde postoji.

But I mean, you talk regularly with Anthony Fauci,

Vi redovno razgovarate sa Antonijem Faučijem,

who is a wise voice on this by most people's opinion.

koji je glas mudrosti u ovome po mišljenju mnogih.

But to what extent is he just hamstrung?

Ali u kojoj meri je on limitiran?

He's not allowed to play the full role

Nije mu dozvoljeno da igra celu ulogu

that he could play in this circumstance.

koju bi mogao da igra u ovim okolnostima.

BG: Dr. Fauci has emerged where he was allowed to have some airtime,

BG: Dr. Fauči se pojavio tamo gde mu je dozvoljeno malo vremena

and even though he was stating things that are realistic,

i čak iako je počeo sa realnim stvarima,

his prestige has stuck.

njegov status je ugrožen.

He can speak out in that way.

On može do govori u tim okvirima.

Typically, the CDC would be the primary voice here.

CKB je glavni portparol ovde.

It's not absolutely necessary,

Nije neophodno

but in previous health crises,

ali u prethodnim zdravstvenim krizama,

you let the experts inside the CDC

puštate stručnjake iz CKB-a

be that voice.

da se oglašavaju.

They're trained to do these things,

Oni su obučeni za te stvari,

and so it is a bit unusual here how much we've had to rely on Fauci

tako da je malo neuobičajeno koliko se možemo osloniti na Faučija

as opposed to the CDC.

nasuprot CKB-a.

It should be Fauci, who's a brilliant researcher,

Trebalo bi da Fauči, koji je sjajan istraživač,

so experienced, particularly in vaccines.

toliko iskusan, posebno u oblasti vakcina.

In some ways, he has become, taking the broad advice

Na neki način je postao, uzimajući široke savete

that's the epidemiology advice

koji su epidemiološki saveti

and explaining it in the right way,

i objašnjavajući ih na pravi način,

where he'll admit,

priznaje:

"OK, we may have a rebound here,

"OK, možda ćemo imati porast ovde,

and this is why we need to behave that way."

i zato moramo da se ponašamo tako."

But it's fantastic that his voice has been allowed to come through.

Ali je fantastično da je njegov glas mogao da se čuje.

CA: Sometimes.

KA: Ponekad.

Let's have the next question.

Hajdemo na sledeće pitanje.

Nina Gregory, "How are you and your foundation

Nina Gregori: Kako se Vi i Vaša fondacija

addressing the ethical questions about which countries get the vaccine first,

izjašnjavate o etičkom pitanju koja zemlja dobija prva vakcine,

assuming you find one?"

pod pretpostavkom da je Vi pronađete?"

And maybe, Bill, use this as a moment

Možda, Bile, da iskoristimo ovaj momenat

to just talk about where the quest for the vaccine is

da porazgovaramo o tome dokle se stiglo u potrazi za vakcinom

and what are just some of the key things we should all be thinking about

i koje su ključne stvari o kojima bi svi trebalo da razmišljamo

as we track the news on this.

dok pratimo novosti o tome.

BG: There's three vaccines that are,

BG: Postoje tri vakcine koje,

if they work, are the earliest:

ako su efikasne, prednjače:

the Moderna, which unfortunately, won't scale very easily,

Moderna, koja se nažalost, neće lako skalirati

so if that works, it'll be mostly a US-targeted thing;

tako da ako bude efikasna, biće uglavnom za američko tržište;

then you have the AstraZeneca, which comes from Oxford;

onda imate AstraZeneca vakcinu, koja se pravi u Oksfordu;

and the Johnson and Johnson.

i Džonson i Džonson.

Those are the three early ones.

To su tri najranije.

And we have animal data

Imamo i podatke o životinjama

that looks potentially good but not definitive,

koji izgledaju potencijalno dobro ali nisu konačni,

particularly will it work in the elderly,

posebno da li će biti efikasni za starije,

and we'll have human data over the next several months.

i imaćemo ljudske podatke u narednih nekoliko meseci.

Those three will be gated by the safety and efficacy trial.

Za ove tri vakcine će se raditi studija sigurnosti i efikasnosti.

That is, we'll be able to manufacture those,

Njih ćemo moći da proizvodimo

although not as much as we want.

mada ne toliko koliko želimo.

We'll be able to manufacture those before the end of the year.

Njih ćemo moći da proizvodimo krajem godine.

Whether the Phase 3 will succeed

Da li će treća faza biti uspešna

and whether it'll complete before the end of the year,

i da li će se okončati do kraja godine,

I wouldn't be that optimistic about.

povodom toga nisam baš optimističan.

Phase 3 is where you need to really look at all the safety profile

U fazi tri mora se ispitati bezbednosni profil

and efficacy,

i efikasnost,

but those will get started.

ali sa time će se početi.

And then there's four or five vaccines that use different approaches

Onda postoji četiri ili pet vakcina koje koriste drugačiji pristup

that are maybe three or four months behind that:

koje su možda tri ili četiri meseca iza:

Novavax, Sanofi, Merck.

Novavaks, Sanofi, Merk.

And so we're funding factory capacity for a lot of these --

Finansiramo fabričke kapacitete za mnoge od njih -

some complex negotiations are taking place right now on this --

trenutno se vode složeni pregovori oko toga -

to get factories that will be dedicated to the poorer countries,

da se dobiju fabrike koje će biti posvećene siromašnijim zemljama,

what's called low- and middle-income.

sa niskim i srednjim primanjima.

And the very scalable constructs

Progresivne vakcine,

that include AstraZeneca and Johnson and Johnson,

kao AstraZeneka i Džonson i Džonson,

we'll focus on those,

mi ćemo se fokusirati na njih,

the ones that are inexpensive

one koje su jeftinije

and you can build a single factory to make 600 million doses.

i možete sagraditi fabriku da napravi 600 miliona doza.

So a number of the vaccine constructs

Dakle, veliki broj vakcina

are potential.

je moguć.

I don't see anything before the end of the year.

Ja ne vidim ništa pre kraja godine.

That's really the best case,

To je zaista najbolji scenario,

and it's down to a few constructs now,

i sužen je na nekiliko vakcina,

which, typically, you have high failure rates.

koje obično imaju visoki stepen neuspeha.

CA: Bill, is it the case

KA: Bil, da li to znači,

that if you and your foundation weren't in the picture here

da Vi i Vaša fondacija niste u svemu ovome,

that market dynamics would likely lead to a situation

da bi tržišna dinamika vodila ka situaciji gde

where, as soon as a promising vaccine candidate emerged,

čim bi se pojavila vakcina koja obećava,

the richer countries would basically snap up, gobble up

bogatije zemlje bi razgrabile

all available initial supply --

sve dostupne zalihe -

it just takes a while to manufacture these,

potrebno je vreme za proizvodnju,

and there would be nothing for the poorer countries --

i ne bi ostalo ništa za siromašnije zemlje,

but that what, effectively, you're doing

i da zapravo to što Vi radite

by giving manufacturing guarantees and capability

davanjem proizvodne garancije i mogućnosti

to some of these candidates,

nekim od ovih kandidata,

you're making it possible that at least some of the early vaccine units

omogućavate da bar neke od prvih zaliha vakcina

will go to poorer countries?

odu za siromašnije zemlje?

Is that correct?

Da li je to tačno?

BG: Well, it's not just us, but yes,

BG: Nismo samo mi, ali da,

we're in the central role there,

mi imamo centralnu ulogu tu,

along with a group we created called CEPI, Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness,

zajedno sa grupom koju smo osnovali KEPI - Koalicija za epidemijsku pripravnost,

and the European leaders agree with this.

i evropski lideri su se složili sa tim.

Now we have the expertise to look at each of the constructs

Imamo stručnjake da pogledaju svaku od vakcina

and say, "OK, where is there a factory in the world

i kažu: "OK. Gde ima fabrika u svetu

that has capacity that can build that?

koja ima kapaciteta da je napravi?

Which one should we put the early money into?

U koju da uložimo početni kapital?

What should the milestones be

Šta bi bila prekretnica

where we'll shift the money over to a different one?"

gde bismo preusmerili novac na neku drugu?"

Because the kind of private sector people

zato što ljudi u privatnom sektoru,

who really understand that stuff,

koji se zaista razumeju te stvati,

some of them work for us,

neki od njh rade za nas,

and we're a trusted party on these things,

i mi smo posrednici u ovim stvarima,

we get to coordinate a lot of it, particularly that manufacturing piece.

moramo da uskladimo mnogo toga, posebno taj deo oko proizvodnje.

Usually, you'd expect the US to think of this as a global problem

Uglavnom biste očekivali da SAD gleda na sve ovo kao globalni problem

and be involved.

i da bude uključena.

So far, no activity on that front has taken place.

Za sada, nema nikakvih aktivnosti po tom pitanju.

I am talking to people in the Congress and the Administration

Razgovaram sa ljudima u Kongresu i administraciji

about when the next relief bill comes along

o tome kada će biti sledeći paket pomoći

that maybe one percent of that could go for the tools

kako bi bar jedam posto tih sredstava bio odobren za otkrića

to help the entire world.

koji bi pomogli celom svetu.

And so it's possible,

To je moguće,

but it's unfortunate,

ali nažalost,

and the vacuum here,

tu je neki vakuum

the world is not that used to,

na koji svet nije navikao

and a lot of people are stepping in, including our foundation,

i mnogi ljudi se uključuju, uključujući i našu fondaciju,

to try and have a strategy,

da probamo i napravimo strategiju,

including for the poorer countries,

koja uključuje i siromašnije zemlje,

who will suffer a high percentage of the deaths and negative effects,

koje će imati visok stepen umrlih i negativne efekte,

including their health systems being overwhelmed.

uključujući i preopterećen zdravstveni sistem.

Most of the deaths will be in developing countries,

Najveći broj umrlih biće u zemljama u razvoju,

despite the huge deaths we've seen in Europe and the US.

iako vidimo i veliki broj umrlih i u Evropi i u SAD.

CA: I mean, I wish I could be a fly on the wall

KA: Voleo bih da sam muva na zidu

and hearing you and Melinda talk about this,

da mogu da čujem Vas i Melindu kada razgovarate o ovome,

because of all of the ethical ... "crimes," let's say,

zato što etički "kriminal", nazovimo to tako,

executed by leaders who should know better,

pod vođstvom lidera koji bi trebalo da znaju bolje,

I mean, it's one thing to not model mask-wearing,

mislim, jedno je ne propagirati nošenje maski,

but to not play a role in helping the world

ali ne učestvovati u pomoći svetu

when faced with a common enemy,

kada je suočen sa zajedničkim neprijateljem,

respond as one humanity,

da reagujemo ujedinjeni kao čovečanstvo,

and instead ...

a umesto toga...

you know, catalyze a really unseemly scramble between nations

znate, katalizovati zaista suludu pometnju među narodima

to fight for vaccines, for example.

da se bore za vakcine, na primer.

That just seems -- surely, history is going to judge that harshly.

To jednostavno izgleda - istorija će to grubo suditi, zasigurno.

That is just sickening.

To je jednostavno mučno.

Isn't it? Am I missing something?

Zar ne? Da li nešto propuštam?

BG: Well, it's not quite as black-and-white as that.

BG: Pa, nije baš tako crno-belo.

The US has put more money out

SAD je uložila mnogo novca

to fund the basic research on these vaccines

da podrži osnovna istraživanja na vakcinama,

than any country by far,

više od bilo koje zemlje do sad,

and that research is not restricted.

i to istraživanje nije ograničeno.

There's not, like, some royalty that says, "Hey, if you take our money,

Nije to neka licenca koja kaže: "Hej, ako uzmete naš novac,

you have to pay the US a royalty."

morate SAD da platite za licencu."

They do, to the degree they fund research,

U meri u kojoj oni finansiraju istraživanje,

it's for everybody.

to je za svakoga.

To the degree they fund factories, it's just for the US.

U meri u kojoj finansiraju fabrike, to je samo za SAD.

The thing that makes this tough is that in every other global health problem,

Ono što otežava je što u svakom drugom zdravstvenom problemu,

the US totally leads smallpox eradication,

SAD totalno vode u iskorenjivanju malih boginja,

the US is totally the leader on polio eradication,

SAD je totalni lider u iskorenjivanju dečije paralize,

with key partners -- CDC, WHO, Rotary, UNICEF, our foundation.

sa glavnim partnerima - CKB, SZO, Rotari, UNICEF, naša fondacija.

So the world -- and on HIV,

Tako da svet - i za HIV,

under President Bush's leadership, but it was very bipartisan,

za vreme predsednika Buša, ali je bilo veoma dvopartijsko,

this thing called PEPFAR was unbelievable.

nešto kao PEPFAR je bilo nezamislivo.

That has saved tens of millions of lives.

To je spasilo desetine miliona života.

And so it's that the world always expected the US

Tako je svet uvek očekivao da SAD

to at least be at the head of the table,

uvek budu na čelu stola,

financially, strategy, OK, how do you get these factories for the world,

finansijski, strateški, kako da dobijete te fabrike za svet

even if it's just to avoid the infection coming back to the US

čak i ako je to samo da se izbegne povratak infekcije u SAD

or to have the global economy working,

ili kako bi globalna ekonomija funkcionisala,

which is good for US jobs

što je dobro za poslove u SAD,

to have demand outside the US.

da imate potražnju izvan SAD.

And so the world is kind of --

Tako je svet malo -

you know, there's all this uncertainty about which thing will work,

znate, toliko je neizvesnosti oko toga šta će ovde funkcionisati,

and there's this, "OK, who's in charge here?"

i postoji pitanje: "OK, ko je ovde glavni zaduženi?"

And so the worst thing, the withdrawal from WHO,

I tako najgora stvar, povlačenje iz SZO,

that is a difficulty that hopefully will get remedied

to je teškoća koja će se, nadajmo se, popraviti

at some point,

u nekom trenutku,

because we need that coordination

zato što nam je potrebna ta saradnja

through WHO.

kroz SZO.

CA: Let's take another question.

KA: Idemo na sledeće pitanje.

Ali Kashani, "Are there any particularly successful models

Ali Kašani: "Da li postoji neki posebno uspešan model

of handling the pandemic that you have seen around the world?"

suzbijanja pandemije koji ste videli negde u svetu?"

BG: Well, it's fascinating that, besides early action,

BG: Fascinantno je, osim prvih akcija,

there are definitely things where you take people who have tested positive

ima definitivno stvari gde ljude koji su testirani pozitivno

and you monitor their pulse ox,

nadgledate njihov "puls ox",

which is the oxygen saturation level in their blood,

što je nivo kiseonika u krvi,

which is a very cheap detector,

što je veoma jeftin detektor,

and then you know to get them to the hospitals fairly early.

i onda znate relativno rano da li treba da idu u bolnicu.

Weirdly, patients don't know things are about to get severe.

Pacijent ne zna da li će se situacija pogoršati.

It's an interesting physiological reason that I won't get into.

To je zanimljiv fiziološki razlog u koji ne bih ulazio.

And so Germany has quite a low case fatality rate

I tako Nemačka ima dosta nisku stopu smrtnosti

that they've done through that type of monitoring.

do čega su došli kroz takav način praćenja.

And then, of course, once you get into facilities,

I tada, naravno, kada dospete u bolnicu,

we've learned that the ventilator, actually, although extremely well-meaning,

naučili smo da je respirator, zapravo, iako krajnje dobronamerno,

was actually overused and used in the wrong mode

bio previše korišćen i u pogrešne svrhe

in those early days.

u tim ranim danima.

So the health -- the doctors are way smarter about treatment today.

Tako da zdravlje - doktori su danas daleko pametniji u vezi tretmana.

Most of that, I would say, is global.

Većina toga je, rekao bih, globalna.

Using this pulse ox as an early indicator,

Merenje kiseonika kao rani pokazatelj,

that'll probably catch on broadly,

to će se verovatno koristiti široko,

but Germany was a pioneer there.

ali Nemačka je bila prethodnica u tome.

And now, of course, dexamethasone -- fortunately, it's cheap, it's oral,

Pa onda, naravno, deksametazon - na sreću, jeftin je, prima se oralno,

we can ramp up manufacture.

možemo mu povećati proizvodnju.

That'll go global as well.

I to će postati globalno takođe.

CA: Bill, I want to ask you something about

KA: Bil, hteo bih da Vas pitam

what it's been like for you personally through this whole process.

kako je Vama lično bilo tokom celog ovog procesa?

Because, weirdly, even though your passion and good intent on this topic

Zato što, čudno, iako Vaša strast i dobre namere po ovom pitanju

seems completely bloody obvious to anyone who has spent a moment with you,

izgledaju očigledne svima koji su proveli i momenat sa Vama

there are these crazy conspiracy theories out there about you.

postoji ta luda teorija zavere u vezi sa Vama.

I just checked in with a company called Zignal

Upravo sam proverio sa kompanijom Zignal

that monitors social media spaces.

koja nadgleda društvene mreže.

They say that, to date, I think on Facebook alone,

Oni kažu da, do danas, mislim samo na Fejsbuku,

more than four million posts have taken place

postavljeno je više od četiri miliona objava

that associate you with some kind of conspiracy theory around the virus.

koje Vas povezuju sa nekakvom zaverom oko virusa.

I read that there was a poll that more than 40 percent of Republicans

Pročitao sam da postoji anketa po kojoj više od 40 posto republikanaca

believe that the vaccine that you would roll out

veruje da bi vakcina koju Vi izbacite

would somehow plant a microchip in people to track their location.

ugradila nekako mikročip u ljude, za praćenje njihove lokacije.

I mean, I can't even believe that poll number.

Ne mogu čak da poverujem ni u broj anketiranih.

And then some people are taking this seriously enough,

Neki ljudi uzimaju to za ozbiljno,

and some of them have even been recirculated on "Fox News" and so forth,

nešto o tome se emitovalo i na "Fox Vestima", i drugde,

some people are taking this seriously enough

neki ljudi shvataju ovo dovoljno ozbiljno

to make really quite horrible threats and so forth.

pa prave dosta ozbiljne pretnje.

You seem to do a good job sort of shrugging this off,

Izgleda da Vi radite dobru stvar ignorišući to,

but really, like, who else has ever been in this position?

ali zaista, ko je još bio u takvoj poziciji?

How are you managing this?

Kako se nosite sa tim?

What on earth world are we in

U kakvom to svetu živimo

that this kind of misinformation can be out there?

kada se takve dezinformacije mogu plasirati?

What can we do to help correct it?

Šta možemo da uradimo da to ispravimo?

BG: I'm not sure.

BG: Nisam siguran.

And it's a new thing

I to je novotarija,

that there's conspiracy theories.

da postoji teorija zavere.

I mean, Microsoft had its share of controversy,

Mislim, i oko Majkrosofta je bilo kontraverzi,

but at least that related to the real world, you know?

ali su bile povezane sa stvarnošcu.

Did Windows crash more than it should?

Da li je Vindous blokirao više nego što bi trebalo?

We definitely had antitrust problems.

Definitivno imamo problem sa nepoverenjem.

But at least I knew what that was.

Ali sam bar znao o čemu se radi.

When this emerged, I have to say,

Kada se ovo pojavilo, moram reći,

my instinct was to joke about it.

instikt mi je bio da se šalim na tu temu.

People have said that's really inappropriate,

Ljudi su rekli da je to neadekvatno,

because this is a very serious thing.

pošto se radi o vrlo ozbiljnoj temi.

It is going to make people less willing to take a vaccine.

Izazvaće da ljudi budu manje voljni da prime vakcinu.

And, of course, once we have that vaccine,

I jednom, kada je budemo imali,

it'll be like masks,

biće kao sa maskama,

where getting lots of people,

što više ljudi bude vakcinisano,

particularly when it's a transmission-blocking vaccine,

posebno ako bude vakcina koja sprečava dalji prenos,

there's this huge community benefit

postoji ogromna zajednička korist

to widespread adoption of that vaccine.

od širokog usvajanja te vakcine.

So I am caught a little bit,

Tako da sam malo zatečen,

unsure of what to say or do,

nesiguran šta da kažem ili uradim,

because the conspiracy piece is a new thing for me,

jer ta predstava o zaveri je potpuno nova stvar za mene,

and what do you say

i šta da kažete

that doesn't give credence to the thing?

da ne pridajete značaja toj stvari?

The fact that a "Fox News" commentator, Laura Ingraham,

Činjenica da je komentatorka na "Fox vestima", Laura Ingraham,

was saying this stuff about me microchipping people,

rekla te stvari o mom mikročipovanju ljudi,

that survey isn't that surprising because that's what they heard

ta anketa nije iznenađenje jer se to čulo

on the TV.

na televiziji.

It's wild.

To je ludost.

And people are clearly seeking simpler explanations

Ljudi očigledno traže jednostavnije objašnjenje

than going and studying virology.

nego da se upuste u proučavanje virusologije.

CA: I mean,

KA: Mislim,

TED is nonpolitical,

TED je apolitičan,

but we believe in the truth.

ali verujemo u istinu.

I would say this:

Rekao bih sledeće:

Laura Ingraham, you owe Bill Gates an apology and a retraction.

Laura Ingraham, dugujete Bilu Gejtsu izvinjenje i demanti.

You do.

Dugujete mu.

And anyone who's watching this

I svi koji ovo gledaju

who thinks for a minute that this man is involved in some kind of conspiracy,

i koji i na trenutak pomisle da je ovaj čovek uključen u neku zaveru,

you want your head examined.

trebalo bi da se pregledate.

You are crazy.

Ludi ste.

Enough of us know Bill over many years

Dosta nas poznaje Bila mnogo godina

and have seen the passion and engagement in this to know

i videli smo njegovu strast i angažovanost, da znamo

that you are crazy.

da ste ludi.

So get over it,

Tako da, prevaziđite to,

and let's look at the actual problem of solving this pandemic.

i pogledajte stvarne probleme u rešavanju pandemije.

Honestly.

Iskreno.

If anyone in the chat here has a suggestion,

Ako bilo ko u ovom razgovoru ima predlog,

a positive suggestion for how you can,

konstuktivan predlog

how do you get rid of conspiracies,

kako se otarasiti zaverenika

because they feed on each other.

jer se oni međusobno hrane.

Now, "Oh, well I would say that, because I'm part of the conspiracy,"

Sad će da bude: "O, reći ću to jer sam deo zavere,"

or whatever.

ili šta već.

Like, how do we get back to a world

Kako se vratiti u svet

where information can be trusted?

gde se može verovati informacijama?

We have to do better on it.

Moramo bolje da poradimo na tome.

Are there any other questions out there from the community?

Ima li još pitanja među publikom?

Aria Bendix from New York City:

Aria Bendiks iz Njujorka:

"What are your personal recommendations for those who want to reduce

"Koje su Vaše preporuke za one koji žele da smanje

their risk of infection amid an uptick in cases?"

rizik od infekcije usred rasta broja slučajeva?"

BG: Well, it's great if you have a job

BG: Dobro je ako imate posao

that you can stay at your house and do it through digital meetings,

da ostanete kod kuće i obavljate ga elektronski,

and even some of your social activities,

pa čak i neke vaše društvene aktivnosti,

you know, I do video calls with lots of friends.

znate, ja obavljam video pozive sa dosta svojih prijatelja.

I have friends in Europe that, who knows when I'll see them,

Imam prijatelje u Evropi, koje ko zna kada ću videti,

but we schedule regular calls to talk.

ali planiramo pozive da razgovaramo.

If you stay fairly isolated,

Ako ostanete zaista izolovani,

you don't run much risk,

ne izlažete se velikom riziku,

and it's when you're getting together with lots of other people,

jer kada se okupljate sa puno ljudi

either through work or socialization,

bilo kroz posao ili druženje,

that drives that risk,

to uvećava rizik,

and particularly in these communities where you have increased cases,

i posebno u sredinama gde je veći broj slučajeva,

even though it's not going to be mandated,

čak i ako nije obavezno,

hopefully, the mobility numbers will show people responding

nadajmo se da će količina mobilnosti pokazati da ljudi reaguju

and minimizing those kind of out-of-the-house contacts.

i umanjuju spoljašnje kontakte.

CA: Bill, I wonder if I could just ask you

KA: Bil, mogu li Vas pitati

just a little bit about philanthropy.

nešto malo i o filantropiji?

Obviously, your foundation has played a huge role in this,

Očigledno je Vaša fondacija odigrala veliku ulogu u ovome,

but philanthropy more generally.

ali o filantropiji uopštenije.

You know, you've started this Giving Pledge movement,

Započeli ste "Giving Pledge" pokret,

recruited all these billionaires

okupili sve te milijardere

who have pledged to give away half their net worth

koji su se obavezali da će dati polovinu svoje neto zarade

before or after their death.

pre ili posle svoje smrti.

But it's really hard to do.

Ali to je zaista teško uraditi.

It's really hard to give away that much money.

Zaista je teško odreći se tolikog novca.

You yourself, I think,

Vi lično, mislim,

since The Giving Pledge was started --

od kad je pokret osnovan -

what? 10 years ago or something, I'm not sure when --

pre 10 godina, tako nekako, nisam siguran kada -

but your own net worth, I think, has doubled since that period

ali Vaša neto zarada, ja mislim, se udvostručila od tada

despite being the world's leading philanthropist.

iako ste vodeći svetski filantrop.

Is it just fundamentally hard to give away money effectively

Da li je u osnovi teško davati novac

to make the world better?

kako bi se svet učinio boljim?

Or should the world's donors,

Ili bi svetski donatori trebalo,

and especially the world's really rich donors,

a posebno veoma bogati svetski donatori

start to almost commit to a schedule,

da se obavežu u smislu,

like, "Here's a percentage of my net worth each year

"Evo procenta mojih godišnjih neto primanja,

that, as I get older,

a kako starim,

maybe that goes up.

možda se on i uveća.

If I'm to take this seriously,

Ako ovo shvatam ozbiljno,

I have to give away -- somehow, I've got to find a way

da treba da doniram - nekako, moram pronaći način

of doing that effectively."

da to uradim efikasno."

Is that an unfair and crazy question?

Da li je to nefer i besmisleno pitanje?

BG: Well, it'd be great to up the rate,

BG: Bilo bi sjajno povećati udeo,

and our goal, both as the Gates Foundation or through The Giving Pledge,

i naš cilj je, i kroz Gejts Fondaciju i kroz "Giving Plegde",

is to help people find causes they connect to.

da pomognemo ljudima da pronađu smisao sa kojim su povezani.

People give through passion.

Ljudi daju kroz strast.

Yes, numbers are important,

Da, brojke su važne,

but there's so many causes out there.

ali ima toliko razloga oko nas.

The way you're going to pick is you see somebody who's sick,

Način na koji ćeš izabrati je ako vidiš nekoga ko je bolestan,

you see somebody who's not getting social services.

nekoga ko ne dobija socijalnu negu.

You see something that helps reduce racism.

Vidiš nešto što pomaže da se smanji rasizam.

And you're very passionate, and so you give to that.

Strastveni ste i zato dajete tome.

And, of course,

I, naravno,

some philanthropic gifts won't work out.

neki od tih filantropskih poklona neće uspeti.

We do need to up the ambition level of philanthropists.

Moramo povećati ambiciju kod filantropa.

Now, collaborative philanthropy

Kooperativna filantropija,

that you're helping to facilitate through Audacious,

kojoj pomažete kroz "Odvažni projekat"

there's four or five other groups that are getting philanthropists together,

ima oko četiri do pet drugih grupa koje okupljaju filantrope,

that is fantastic,

to je sjajno,

because then they learn from each other,

jer onda oni uče jedni od drugih,

they get confidence from each other,

stiču samopouzdanje jedni od drugih,

they feel like, "Hey, I put in x, and the four other people put money in,

osećaju: "Hej, ulažem u nešto, i još četvoro drugih ljudi ulaže,

so I'm getting more impact,"

tako da imam sve više uticaja,"

and hopefully, it can be made fun for them even when they find out,

i nadam se, da može da im bude zabavno čak iako shvate:

OK, that particular gift didn't work out that well,

"OK, ovo i nije ispalo najbolje,

but let's keep going.

ali idemo dalje."

So philanthropy, yes,

Dakle, filantropija, da,

I would like to see the rate go up,

voleo bih da vidim da se razvija,

and people who do get going,

i da ljudima koji se priključuju,

it is fun,

zabavno je,

it's fulfilling,

ispunjavajuće,

you pick which of the family members are partnered in doing it.

izaberete člana porodice kao partnera u ovome.

In my case, Melinda and I love doing this stuff together,

U mom slučaju, Melinda i ja volimo da zajedno radimo te stvari,

learning together.

da učimo zajedno.

Some families, it will even involve the kids in the activities.

Neke porodice će uključiti čak i decu u aktivnosti.

Sometimes the kids are pushing.

Ponekad deca guraju.

When you have lots of money,

Kada imate puno novca,

you still think of a million dollars as a lot of money,

i dalje mislite o milion dolara kao puno para,

but if you have billions,

ali ako imate milijarde,

you should be giving hundreds of millions.

trebalo bi da dajete stotine miliona.

So it's kind of charming that, in terms of your personal expenditure,

Na neki način je čudesno, u smislu sopstvenih izdataka,

you stay at the level you were at before.

ostajete na nivou na kome ste i prethodno bili.

That's societally quite appropriate.

To je društveno sasvim prikladno.

But on your giving, you need to scale up

Ali donacije morate povećavati,

or else it will be your will,

inače će biti po vašoj volji,

and you won't get to shape it and enjoy it quite that same way.

i nećete moći da ih oblikujete i uživate u njima na isti način.

And so without --

I tako bez -

we don't want to mandate it,

ne želimo da ih učinimo obaveznim,

but yes, both you and I want to inspire philanthropists

ali da, i vi i ja hoćemo da inpirišemo filantrope

to see that passion, to see those opportunities

da vide tu strast, da vide mogućnosti

significantly faster than in the past,

mnogo brže nego u prošlosti,

because whether it's race or disease, or all the other social ills,

jer bez obzira da li je u pitanju rasa ili bolest ili druga društvena bolest,

the innovation of what philanthropy can go to and do quickly

novine koje filantropija može da uradi i to brzo

that, if it works, government can come in behind it and scale it up,

da, ako daje rezultate, vlada može stati iza njih i podržati ih.

God knows we need solutions,

Bog zna da su nam potrebna rešenja,

we need that kind of hope and progress

potrebna nam je nada i napredak

that expectations are high

da su očekivanja visoka

that will solve very tough problems.

da se reše veoma teški problemi.

CA: I mean, most philanthropists, even the best of them,

KA: Većina filantropa, čak i najbolji među njima,

find it hard to give away more than about a percent of their net worth every year,

teško se odriče više od jedan posto svog godišnjeg bogatstva,

and yet the world's richest often have access

a ipak najbogatiji na svetu često imaju pristup

to great investment opportunities.

sjajnim mogućnostima za ulaganje.

Many of them are gaining wealth at seven to 10 percent plus per year.

Mnogi od njih uvećaju bogatstvo sedam do 10 i više procenata godišnje.

Isn't it the case that to have a real chance

Zar nije to prilika

of giving away half your fortune,

dati polovinu svog bogatstva,

at some point you have to plan to give away five, six, seven, eight,

u nekom trenutku moraš da planiraš da daš pet, šest, sedam, osam,

10 percent of your net worth annually?

10 posto svoje neto zarade godišnje?

And that is, isn't that the logic of what should be happening?

Zar nije to logika toga što bi trebalo da se desi?

BG: Yeah, there are people like Chuck Feeney,

BG: Da, ima ljudi kao Čak Fini,

who set a good example and gave away all of his money.

koji je postavio dobar primer i dao sav svoj novac.

Even Melinda and I are talking about, should we up the rate that we give at?

Čak i Melinda i ja razgovaramo da li da povećamo davanja.

As you say, we've been very lucky on the investment side

Kao što ste rekli, imali smo sreće sa investicijama

through a variety of things.

kroz razne stvari.

Tech fortunes in general have done well,

Oblast tehnologija je dobro prošla,

even this year,

čak i ove godine

which is one of those great contrasts

što je jedan od onih sjajnih kontrasta

in what's going on in the world.

sa dešavanjima u svetu.

And I do think there's an expectation that we should speed up,

Mislim da postoji očekivanje da treba da ubrzamo,

and there's a reason to speed up,

postoji i razlog za ubrzavanje,

and government is going to miss a lot of needs.

i vlada će propustiti mnoge potrebe.

Yes, there's tons of government money out there,

Da, ima tona vladinog novca uloženog,

but helping it be spent well,

ali pomaganje da se dobro potroši,

helping find places it's not stepping up,

pomaganje da se nađu mesta u kojima nema napretka,

and if people are willing to give to the developing world,

i ako su ljudi voljni da daju za zemlje u razvoju,

they don't have governments

oni nemaju vlade

that can print checks for 15 percent of GDP,

koje mogu da odštampaju ček na 15 posto BDP-a,

and so the suffering there broadly, just the economic stuff alone,

i ukupne patnje tamo, samo ekonomske stvari,

put aside the pandemic,

stavimo po strani pandemiju,

is tragic.

su tragične.

It's about a five-year setback

To je oko pet godina zastoja

in terms of these countries moving forward,

u smislu kako te zemlje napreduju,

and in a few cases, it's tough enough that the very stability of the country

i u nekim slučajevima je toliko teško da je sama stabilnost zemlje

is in question.

dovedena u pitanje.

CA: Well, Bill,

KA: Dobro, Bil,

I'm in awe of what you and Melinda have done.

imam strahopoštovanje prema tome što ste Vi i Melinda uradili.

You walk this narrow path

Idete ovom uskom stazom

of trying to juggle so many different things,

pokušavajući da balansirate između toliko različitih stvari,

and the amount of time that you dedicate to the betterment of the world at large,

i vreme koje posvećujete boljitku sveta uopšte,

and definitely the amount of money

a definitivno i količina novca

and the amount of passion you put into it --

i količina strasti koju u to dajete -

I mean, it's pretty awesome,

mislim, stvarno je fenomenalno,

and I'm really grateful to you for spending this time with us now.

i veoma sam Vam zahvalan što ste proveli ovo vreme sa nama.

Thank you so much,

Hvala Vam puno,

and honestly, the rest of this year,

i iskreno, tokom ostatka godine,

your skills and resources are going to be needed more than ever,

Vaše veštine i resursi će biti potrebniji nego ikada,

so good luck.

Srećno.

BG: Well, thanks.

BG: Hvala.

It's fun work and I'm optimistic, so thanks, Chris.

Zabavan je to posao i ja sam optimista. Hvala, Kris.