Paul Moller: Take a ride in the Skycar

79,081 views ・ 2009-01-12

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

Prevodilac: Miloš Vodogaz Lektor: Ivana Korom
00:13
Many of you could ask the question, you know,
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Mnogi od vas bi mogli pitati,
00:15
why is a flying car, or maybe more accurately,
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zbog čega je leteći automobil ili možda preciznije rečeno,
00:18
a roadable aircraft, possible at this time?
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putna letelica, ostvariva u ovom trenutku?
00:22
A number of years ago,
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Pre mnogo godina,
00:24
Mr. Ford predicted that flying cars
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gospodin Ford je predvideo da će leteći autombili
00:26
of some form would be available.
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u nekom obliku biti dostupni.
00:28
Now, 60 years later,
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Sada, 60 godina kasnije,
00:30
I'm here to tell you why it's possible.
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ovde sam da bih vam rekao zašto je to moguće.
00:32
When I was about five years old,
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Kada sam imao oko pet godina,
00:34
not very much -- about a year after
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ne mnogo, oko godinu nakon što je
00:36
Mr. Ford made his predictions,
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gospodin Ford izrekao svoje predviđanje,
00:38
I was living in a rural part of Canada,
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živeo sam u ruralnom delu Kanade,
00:41
on the side of a mountain in a very isolated area.
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na strani planine u veoma izolovanom području.
00:46
Getting to school, for a kid that was actually pretty short for his age,
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Odlazak u školu za klinca koji je prilično nizak za svoje godine,
00:50
through the Canadian winter, was not a pleasant experience.
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kroz kanadsku zimu, nije bilo prijatno iskustvo.
00:53
It was a trying and scary thing
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Za jedno dete je bilo naporno
00:57
for a young kid to be going through.
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i zastrašujuće da prolazi kroz to.
01:00
At the end of my first year in school, in the summer of that year,
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Na kraju moje prve školske godine, na leto,
01:05
I discovered a couple hummingbirds
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pronašao sam par kolibrija
01:08
that were caught in a shed near my home.
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koji su bili zarobljeni u šupi blizu moje kuće.
01:10
They'd worn themselves out,
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Oni su se iscrpeli,
01:12
beating themselves against the window,
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udarajući o prozor,
01:14
and, well, they were easy to capture.
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i naravno, bilo ih je lako uhvatiti.
01:16
I took them outside and as I let them go, that split second, even though they were very tired,
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Izneo sam ih napolje i pustio, i istog momenta, iako su bili veoma iscrpljeni,
01:20
that second I let them go they hovered for a second,
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odleteli su čim sam ih pustio,
01:22
then zipped off into the distance.
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a zatim su klisnuli u daljinu.
01:24
I thought, what a great way to get to school.
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Pomislio sam, kakav dobar način da odete u školu.
01:26
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
01:29
For a kid at that age, this was like infinite speed, disappearing,
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Za klinca tih godina, to je bila neograničena brzina nestajanja,
01:33
and I was very inspired by that.
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i bio sam veoma inspirisan time.
01:35
And so the next -- over the next
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I tako sledećih -- tokom sledećih
01:37
six decades, believe it or not,
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šest decenija, verovali ili ne,
01:39
I've built a number of aircraft,
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konstruisao sam brojne letelice,
01:42
with the goal of creating something that could do for you, or me,
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sa ciljem stvaranja nečega što bi za vas ili mene
01:46
what the hummingbird does,
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radilo ono što rade kolibri
01:48
and give you that flexibility.
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i što bi vam dalo tu fleksibilnost.
01:51
I've called this vehicle, generically, a volantor,
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Nazvao sam ovo vozilo, uopšteno, volantor,
01:55
after the Latin word "volant," meaning,
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prema latinskoj reči "volant", što znači,
01:57
to fly in a light, nimble manner.
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leteti na lagan, okretan način.
02:00
Volantor-like helicopter, perhaps.
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Volantor - verovatno kao helikopter.
02:02
The FAA, the controlling body above all,
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Federalna Avio-Administracija, regulatorno telo iznad svega,
02:05
calls it a "powered lift aircraft."
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nazvalo ga je "letelica sa podizanjem".
02:08
And they've actually issued a pilot's license --
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I zapravo su nam izdali pilotsku dozvolu --
02:11
a powerlift pilot's license -- for this type of aircraft.
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pilotsku dozvolu za letenje -- za ovaj tip letelice.
02:15
It's closer than you think. It's kind of remarkable when you consider that
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Bliže je nego što mislite. Na neki način to je neobično kada uzmete u obzir
02:18
there are no operational powered lift aircraft.
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da ne postoji funkcionalna letelica ovog tipa.
02:21
So for once, perhaps, the government is ahead of itself.
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I tako bar jedanput, možda, je vlast bila ispred sebe.
02:25
The press calls my particular volantor a "Skycar."
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Novinari su nazvali ovaj volantor " Leteći automobil".
02:30
This is a little bit earlier version of it,
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Ovo je nešto ranija verzija,
02:33
that's why it's given the X designation,
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i zbog toga mu je data namena X,
02:35
but it's a four-passenger aircraft
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ali to je letelica za četiri putnika
02:37
that could take off vertically, like a helicopter --
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koja bi mogla uzleteti vertikalno, kao helikopter --
02:39
therefore it doesn't need an airfield.
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stoga ne treba aerodrom.
02:41
On the ground, it's powered electrically.
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Na zemlji koristi električni pogon.
02:45
It's actually classified as a motorcycle
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Zapravo su ga klasifikovali kao motocikl
02:48
because of the three wheels, which is a great asset
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zbog tri točka, što je velika prednost,
02:50
because it allows you, theoretically, to use this on the highways
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jer vam omogućava, teoretski, da ga koristite na auto-putevima
02:52
in most states, and actually in all cities.
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u većini država i zapravo u svim gradovima.
02:55
So that's an asset because if you've got to deal with the crash protection issues
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Ovo je prednost, jer ukoliko morate da se suočite sa problemima zaštite pri sudaru
02:58
of the automobile, forget it -- you're never going to fly it.
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automobila, zaboravite -- nikad nećete poleteti.
03:02
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
03:07
One could say that a helicopter
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Neko bi mogao reći da helikopter
03:09
does pretty much what the hummingbird does,
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radi prilično isto što rade i kolibri,
03:12
and gets around in much the same way, and it's true,
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i da se kreće na isti način, to je istina,
03:14
but a helicopter is a very complex device.
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ali helikopter je veoma kompleksna letelica.
03:18
It's expensive --
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Skup je -- toliko skup,
03:20
so expensive that very few people could own or use it.
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da svega nekoliko ljudi mogu da koriste i poseduju sopstveni helikopter.
03:24
It's often been described because of its fragile nature and its complexity,
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Zbog svoje krhke prirode i kompleksnosti, često se opisuje
03:28
as a series of parts -- a large number of parts --
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kao niz delova -- veliki broj delova --
03:30
flying in formation.
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koji leti u formaciji.
03:32
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
03:37
Another difference, and I have to describe this,
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Još jedna razlika, ovo moram da spomenem,
03:39
because it's very personal,
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jer je veoma lično,
03:41
another great difference between the helicopter
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još jedna velika razlika između helikoptera
03:43
and the volantor --
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i volantora --
03:45
in my case the Skycar volantor --
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u mom slučaju letećeg automobila --
03:47
is the experience that I've had
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je iskustvo koje sam imao
03:49
in flying both of those.
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upravljajući obema letelicama.
03:51
In a helicopter you feel -- and it's still a remarkable sensation --
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U helikopteru se osećate -- što je i dalje neverovatan doživljaj --
03:54
you feel like you're being hauled up from above
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kao da vas je podigao
03:57
by a vibrating crane.
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vibrirajući kran.
03:59
When you get in the Skycar -- and I can tell you,
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Kada sednete u leteći automobil -- mogu vam reći,
04:01
there's only one other person that's flown it, but he had the same sensation --
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postoji još jedna osoba koja je njime letela, ali je imala isti doživljaj --
04:04
you really feel like you're being lifted up
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osećate se kao da vas je podigao
04:06
by a magic carpet,
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magični tepih,
04:09
without any vibration whatsoever. The sensation is unbelievable.
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bez ikakvih vibracija. Osećaj je neverovatan.
04:12
And it's been a great motivator.
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I to je sjajan motivator.
04:14
I only get to fly this vehicle occasionally,
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Samo povremeno letim ovim vozilom,
04:17
and only when I can persuade my stockholders
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jedino kada uspem da ubedim moje deoničare
04:19
to let me do so,
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da mi dopuste,
04:21
but it's still one of those wonderful experiences
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ali to je i dalje jedno od onih čudesnih iskustava
04:24
that reward you for all that time.
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koja vas nagrađuju za svo to vreme.
04:30
What we really need is something to replace the automobile
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Ono što zaista trebamo je nešto što će zameniti automobile
04:33
for those 50-plus mile trips.
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za ona putovanja preko 80 kilometara.
04:36
Very few people realize that 50 mile-plus trips
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Svega nekoliko ljudi uviđa da ova putovanja
04:38
make up 85 percent of the miles traveled in America.
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čine 85 procenata kilometraže pređene u Americi.
04:41
If we can get rid of that,
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Ako se možemo otarasiti toga,
04:43
then the highways will now be useful to you,
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tada će auto-putevi biti korisni za vas,
04:46
as contrasted by what's happening
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kao pandan onome što se danas događa
04:48
in many parts of the world today.
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u mnogim delovima sveta.
04:52
On this next slide, is an interesting history
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Na sledećem slajdu, nalazi se zanimljiva istorija
04:56
of what we really have seen in infrastructure,
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onoga što smo zaista videli u infrastrukturi,
05:00
because whether I give you a perfect Skycar,
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jer bilo da vam dam prefektan leteći automobil,
05:03
the perfect vehicle for use, it's going to have very little value to you
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perfektno vozilo za upotrebu, za vas će ono imati veoma malu vrednost
05:06
unless you've got a system to use it in.
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osim ako dobijete i sistem u kome ćete ga koristiti.
05:08
I'm sure any of you have asked the question,
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Siguran sam da je svako od vas postavio pitanje,
05:10
yeah, are there great things up there -- what am I going to do, get up there?
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da, jesu li tamo gore sjajne stvari -- šta da radim, da se popnem?
05:12
It's bad enough on a highway, what's it going to be like to be in the air?
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Dovoljno je loše na auto-putu, kako će izgledati kad budem u vazduhu?
05:15
This world that you're going to be talking about tomorrow
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Taj svet o kome ćete sutra govoriti
05:18
is going to be completely integrated. You're not going to be a pilot,
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će biti u potpunosti integrisan. Vi nećete biti pilot,
05:20
you're going to be a passenger.
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bićete putnik.
05:22
And it's the infrastructure that really determines whether this process goes forward.
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Infrastruktura je ta koja zapravo određuje da li ovaj proces napreduje.
05:25
I can tell you, technically we can build Skycars --
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Mogu vam reći, tehnički, možemo konstruisati leteće automobile
05:27
my God, we went to the moon!
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moj bože, otišli smo na mesec!
05:29
The technology there was much more difficult than what I'm dealing with here.
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Ta tehnologija je mnogo komplikovanija od one sa kojom ja ovde radim.
05:32
But we have to have these priority changes,
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Ali moramo promeniti prioritete,
05:34
we have to have infrastructure to go with this.
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moramo imati infrastrukturu koja ide uz to.
05:36
Historically you see that we got around
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Istorijski, videćete da smo se pre
05:38
200 years ago by canals,
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200 godina kretali kanalima,
05:40
and as that system disappeared, were replaced by railroads.
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a kada je taj sistem nestao, zamenili smo ga železnicom.
05:43
As that disappeared we came in with highways.
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Kada je to nestalo nastupili smo sa auto-putevima.
05:45
But if you look at that top corner -- the highway system --
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Ali ako obratite pažnju -- na sistem auto-puteva --
05:48
you see where we are today. Highways are no longer being built,
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videćete gde smo danas. Auto-putevi se više ne grade,
05:52
and that's a fact. You won't see any additional highways
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i to je činjenica. Nećete videti nikakve dodatne auto-puteve
05:55
in the next 10 years.
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u sledećih 10 godina.
05:57
However, the next 10 years, if like the last 10 years,
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Međutim, u sledećih 10 godina, kao i zadnjih 10 godina,
05:59
we're going to see 30 percent more traffic.
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imaćemo 30 procenata više saobraćaja.
06:02
And where is that going to lead you to?
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I gde će vas ovo dovesti?
06:04
So the issue then, I've often asked, is
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Tako da ptanje, koje ja stalno postavljam, je
06:06
when is it going to happen?
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kada će se to desiti?
06:09
When are we going to be able to have these vehicles?
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Kada ćemo moći da imamo ovakva vozila?
06:12
And of course, if you ask me, I'm going to give you a really optimistic view.
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Naravno, ako mene pitate, daću vam prilično optimističan pogled.
06:15
After all, I've been spending 60 years here believing it's going to happen tomorrow.
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Pored svega, ja sam proveo 60 godina verujući da će se to desiti sutra.
06:18
So, I'm not going to quote myself on this.
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Neću sam sebe citirati ovde.
06:21
I'd prefer to quote someone else,
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Više volim da citiram nekog drugog,
06:23
who testified with me before Congress,
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ko je svedočio sa mnom pred Kongresom,
06:25
and in his position as head of NASA
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i kao šef NASA-e
06:29
put forward this particular vision
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pogurao ovu viziju
06:31
of the future of this type of aircraft.
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budućnosti ovog tipa letelice.
06:35
Now I would argue, actually, if you look at the fact that on the highways today,
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Možemo raspraviti, ali ako pogledate činjenicu da se danas
06:38
you're only averaging about 30 miles per hour --
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na auto-putevima krećete u proseku 48 km/h --
06:41
on average, according to the DOT --
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prema Ministarstvu transporta --
06:44
the Skycar travels at over 300 miles an hour,
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leteći automobil se kreće preko 480 km/h,
06:46
up to 25,000 feet.
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sve do 7600 metara visine.
06:49
And so, in effect, you could see perhaps a tenfold increase
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I tako, mogli biste možda videti desetostruko povećanje
06:51
in the ability to get around
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u sposobnosti kretanja
06:54
as far as speed is concerned.
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što se tiče brzine.
07:01
Unbeknownst to many of you,
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Bez znanja mnogih od vas,
07:04
the highway in the sky that I'm talking about here
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auto-put na nebu, o kome ovde govorim
07:06
has been under construction for 10 years.
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je pod izgradnjom 10 godina.
07:09
It makes use of the GPS -- you're familiar with GPS in your automobile,
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To omogućava korišćenje GPS-a -- upoznati ste sa GPS-om u vašim automobilima,
07:12
but you may not be familiar with the fact that there's a GPS U.S.,
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ali možda niste upoznati sa činjenicom da postoji američki GPS,
07:15
there's a Russian GPS,
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postoji ruski GPS,
07:17
and there's a new GPS system
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i postoji novi GPS sistem
07:19
going to Europe, called Galileo.
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iz Evrope koji se zove Galileo.
07:21
With those three systems,
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Sa ova tri sistema
07:23
you have what is always necessary --
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imate ono što je stalno neophodno --
07:25
a level of redundancy that says,
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nivo preopširnosti koji kaže,
07:27
if one system fails, you'll still have a way
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da ako jedan sistem otkaže, i dalje imate način
07:29
to make sure that you're being controlled.
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da budete sigurni da će vas kontrolisati.
07:31
Because if you're in this world, where computers are controlling what you're doing,
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Jer ako se nalazite u svetu gde računari kontrolišu ono što radite,
07:34
it's going to be very critical that something can't fail on you.
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biće veoma važno da vas nešto ne izneveri.
07:39
How would a trip in a Skycar work?
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Kako bi putovanje u letećem automobilu funkcionisalo?
07:41
Well, you can't right now
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Pa, ne možete baš sad
07:43
take off from your home because it's too noisy.
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uzleteti ispred svoje kuće jer je prebučno.
07:46
I mean to be able to take off from your home, you'd have to be extremely quiet.
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Ako biste to želeli, trebalo bi da budete veoma tihi.
07:49
But it's still fairly quiet.
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Ali i dalje je to prilično tiho.
07:51
You'd motor, electrically, to a vertiport,
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Odvezli biste se, koristeći električni pogon, na vertidrom
07:55
which may be a few blocks, maybe even a few miles away.
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koji bi bio udaljen nekoliko blokova ili nekoliko kilometara.
07:57
This is clearly, as I said earlier, a roadable aircraft,
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Ovo je, kao što sam rekao ranije, putna letelica,
08:00
and you're not going to spend that much time on the road.
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pri čemu nećete potrošiti toliko vremena na putu.
08:02
After all, if you can fly like that,
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Nakon svega, ako možete leteti,
08:04
why are you going to drive around on a highway?
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zašto da se vozite unaokolo auto-putem?
08:06
Go to a local vertiport,
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Idite na lokalni vertidrom,
08:08
plug in your destination,
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unesite svoju destinaciju
08:11
delivered almost like a passenger.
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i stignite skoro kao običan putnik.
08:15
You can play computer games, you can sleep, you can read on the way.
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Možete igrati video igrice, možete spavati, možete čitati u putu.
08:19
This is the world -- there won't be you as a pilot. And I know the pilots in the audience aren't going to like that --
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Ovo je svet -- nećete vi obavljati ulogu pilota. Znam neke pilote u publici kojima se ovo neće dopasti --
08:22
and I've had a lot of bad feedback
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imao sam mnogo loših povratnih reakcija
08:24
from people who want to be up there, flying around
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od ljudi koji hoće da budu gore,
08:26
and experiencing that.
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da lete i doživljavaju to.
08:29
And of course, I suppose like recreational parks you can still do that.
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Naravno, pretpostavljam da ima rekreativnih parkova u kojima to i dalje možete.
08:32
But the vehicle itself is going to be a very, very controlled environment.
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Ali vozilo će samo po sebi biti veoma kontrolisano okruženje.
08:36
Or it's going to have no use to you as a person who might use such a system.
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U suprotnom vam neće biti od koristi, ako želite da koristite takav sistem.
08:40
We flew the first vehicle for the international press
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Vozili smo prvo vozilo za međunarodne novinare
08:43
in 1965, when I really got it started.
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1965., kada sam započeo zapravo sve to.
08:45
I was a professor at the U.C. Davis System,
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Bio sam profesor na Dejvisu, Univerziteta Kalifornije,
08:47
and I got a lot of excitement around this,
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i bio sam veoma uzbuđen povodom svega,
08:49
and I was able to fund the initiation of the program back in that time.
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tada sam bio u mogućnosti da finansiram početak programa.
08:53
And then through the various years
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Nakon niza različitih godina
08:55
we invented various vehicles.
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izumeli smo različita vozila.
08:57
Actually the critical point was in 1989,
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Zapravo kritična tačka je bila 1989.
09:00
when we demonstrated the stability of this vehicle --
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kada smo demonstrirali stabilnost ovog vozila --
09:02
how completely stable it was in all circumstances,
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koliko je zapravo bilo stabilno u svim okolnostima,
09:05
which is of course very critical.
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što je naravno bilo veoma važno.
09:07
Still not a practical vehicle during all of this,
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Ipak nakon svega nije bilo praktično vozilo,
09:10
but moving in the right direction, we believe.
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ali verujem da smo se kretali u pravom smeru.
09:14
Finally, in the early part of --
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Konačno, na početku --
09:17
or actually the middle of 2002,
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zapravo sredinom 2002. godine,
09:21
we flew the 400 -- M400, which was the four-passenger vehicle.
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leteli smo sa M 400, koje je bilo vozilo za četiri putnika.
09:25
In this case here, we're flying it remotely, as we always did at the beginning.
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U ovom slučaju, korišćeno je daljinsko upravljanje kao što smo u početku uvek radili.
09:29
And we had very small power plants in it at this time.
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I imali smo u njemu veoma male elektrane u to vreme.
09:32
We are now installing larger powerplants,
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Sada ugrađujemo veće elektrane,
09:34
which will make it possible for me to get back on board.
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koje će mi omogućiti da se ponovo ukrcam.
09:36
A vertical-takeoff aircraft
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Letelica sa vertikalnim uzletanjem
09:38
is not the safest vehicle during the test flight program.
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nije najbezbednije vozilo tokom programa testiranja.
09:42
There's an old adage that applied for the years
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Postoji stara izreka koja se primenjivala godinama
09:45
between 1950s and 1970s,
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između 1950. i 1970. godine,
09:48
when every aeronautical company
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kada je svaka aeronautička kompanija
09:50
was working on vertical-takeoff aircraft.
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radila na letelicama koje uzleću vertikalno.
09:54
A vertical-takeoff aircraft
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Letelica sa vertikalnim uzletanjem
09:56
needs an artificial stabilization system --
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ima potrebu za veštačkim sistemom stabilizacije --
09:58
that's essential.
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ovo je ključno.
10:00
At least for the hover,
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Barem za lebdenje,
10:02
and the low-speed flight.
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i let na niskim brzinama.
10:06
If that single-stability system,
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Ako taj sistem stabilnosti,
10:08
that brain that flies that aircraft, fails, or if the engine fails,
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taj mozak koji održava letelicu, zakaže ili motor zakaže,
10:12
that vehicle crashes. There is no option to that.
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to vozilo će se srušiti. Tu ne postoji druga opcija.
10:15
And the adage that I'm referring to,
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A izreka na koju sam se pozvao,
10:17
that applied at that time,
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a koja se primenjivala u to vreme,
10:19
was that nothing comes down faster
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kaže da ništa ne pada brže
10:21
than a VTOL aircraft upside down.
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od letelice sa vertikalnim uzletanjem.
10:23
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
10:25
That's a macabre comment because we lost a lot of pilots.
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To je grozan komentar jer smo izgubili mnogo pilota.
10:28
In fact, the aircraft companies gave up on
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Zapravo, kompanije su odustale
10:30
vertical-takeoff aircraft
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od letelica sa vertikalnim uzletanjem
10:32
more or less for a number of years.
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manje ili više za dugi niz godina.
10:34
And there's really only one operational aircraft in the world today
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Tako da danas postoji samo jedna operativna letelica na svetu
10:37
that's a vertical-takeoff aircraft -- as distinct from a helicopter --
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koja uzleće vertikalno -- za razliku od helikoptera --
10:39
and that's the Hawker Harrier jump jet.
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a to je lovački avion Hoker Harijer.
10:47
A vertical-takeoff aircraft,
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Letelica sa vertikalnim uzletanjem,
10:49
like the hummingbird,
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kao i kolibri,
10:51
has a very high metabolism,
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ima veoma brz metabolizam,
10:53
which means it requires a lot of energy.
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što znači da zahteva mnogo energije.
10:56
Getting that energy is very, very difficult. It all comes down
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Dobavljanje tolike količine energije je veoma teško. Sve se svodi
10:59
to that power plant -- how to get a large amount of power in a small package.
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na tu elektranu -- kako dopremiti veću količinu energije u malom pakovanju.
11:05
Fortunately, Dr. Felix Wankel
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Na sreću dr. Feliks Vankel
11:07
invented the rotary engine.
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izumeo je rotacioni motor.
11:10
A very unique engine -- it's round,
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Jedinstven motor -- okrugao je,
11:12
it's small, it's vibration-free.
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mali i bez vibracija.
11:15
It fits exactly where we need to fit it,
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Uklapa se tačno tamo gde je nama to potrebno,
11:17
right in the center of the hubs of the ducts in the system --
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u samom centru čvorišta kanala u sistemu --
11:20
very critical. In fact that engine --
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veoma važno. Zapravo taj motor --
11:22
for those who are into the automobile --
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za one koji se razumeju u automobile --
11:24
know that it recently is applied to the RX8 --
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znaju da je nedavno primenjen na RX 8 --
11:26
the Mazda.
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Mazdu.
11:28
And that sportscar won Sports Car of the Year.
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A taj automobil je proglašen za sportski automobil godine.
11:32
Wonderful engine.
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Predivan motor.
11:34
In that application, it generates one horsepower per pound,
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U ovoj primeni, daje jednu konjsku snagu na pola kilograma,
11:36
which is twice as good as your car engine today,
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što je dvostruko bolje od vaših motora danas,
11:39
but only half of what we need.
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ali samo pola od toga što je nama potrebno.
11:41
My company has spent 35 years
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Moja kompanija je provela 35 godina
11:44
and many millions of dollars taking that rotary engine,
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i potrošila više miliona dolara uzimajuću da je rotacioni motor,
11:47
which was invented in the late '50s, and getting it to the point that we get
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koji je izmišljen kasnih '50-ih, i dolazeći do tačke gde smo dobili
11:50
over two horsepower per pound, reliably, and critical.
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preko dve konjske snage na pola kilograma, pouzdano i važno.
11:53
We actually get 175 horsepower
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Zapravo smo ugurali 175 konjskih snaga
11:56
into one cubic foot.
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u zapreminu od 28 litara.
11:59
We have eight engines in this vehicle.
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Imamo osam motora u ovom vozilu.
12:01
We have four computers. We have two parachutes.
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Imamo četiri računara. Imamo dva padobrana.
12:05
Redundancy is the critical issue here.
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Preopširnost je ovde kritična tema.
12:07
If you want to stay alive you've got to have backups.
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Ako hoćete da ostanete živi morate imati rezervu.
12:09
And we have actually flown this vehicle and lost an engine,
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Mi smo leteli ovim vozilom i izgubili motor,
12:11
and continued to hover.
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nastavio je da lebdi.
12:13
The computers back up each other. There's a voting system --
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Računari se međusovno pokrivaju. Postoji sistem glasanja --
12:16
if one computer is not agreeing with the other three,
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ako se jedan računar ne slaže sa ostala tri,
12:20
it's kicked out of the system.
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biva izbačen iz sistema.
12:21
And then you have three -- you still have the triple redundancy.
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Tada imate tri -- još uvek imate trostruku redundansu.
12:24
If one of those fails, you still have a second chance.
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Ako jedan od njih zakaže i dalje imate drugu šansu.
12:27
If you stick around, then good luck.
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Ako se i dalje držite, onda srećno.
12:29
There won't be a third chance.
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Neće biti treće šanse.
12:33
The parachutes are there -- hopefully,
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Padobrani su -- nadam se,
12:35
more for psychological than real reasons, but
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više iz psihološkog nego realnog razloga, ali
12:38
they will be an ultimate backup if it comes to that.
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oni će biti krajnja rezerva ako do toga dođe.
12:41
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
12:44
I'd like to show you an animation in this next one,
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Hteo bih da vam prikažem animaciju,
12:46
which is one element
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koja predstavlja jedan element
12:48
of the Skycar's use,
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upotrebe letećeg automobila,
12:50
but it's one that demonstrates how it could be used.
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ali ova demonstrira kako bi se mogao koristiti.
12:52
You could think of it personally in your own terms,
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Možete o ovome razmišljati prema svojim nahođenjima,
12:54
of how you might use it.
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kako biste ga vi mogli koristiti.
12:56
Video: Skycar dispatched, launch rescue vehicle for San Francisco.
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Video: Leteći automobil otpremljen, poslati spasilačko vozilo u San Francisko.
13:28
Paul Moller: I believe that personal transportation
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Pol Moler: Verujem da će lični prevoz
13:30
in something like the Skycar,
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u nečemu kao što je leteći automobil,
13:32
probably in another volantor form as well,
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verovatno i u još jednom volantor obliku,
13:35
will be a significant part of our lives,
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biti značajan deo naših života,
13:38
as Dr. Goldin says, within the next 10 years.
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u sledećih 10 godina, kao što je rekao dr. Goldin.
13:41
And it's going to change the demographics in a very significant way.
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To će promeniti demografiju na veoma značajan način.
13:45
If you can live 75 miles from San Francisco and get there in 15 minutes,
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Ako možete živeti na 120 kilometara od San Franciska i stići tamo za 15 minuta,
13:49
you're going to sell your 700,000-dollar apartment,
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vi ćete prodati vaš stan od 700 hiljada dolara,
13:53
buy an upscale home on the side of a mountain,
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kupiti kuću u planinskom delu,
13:55
buy a Skycar,
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kupiti leteći automobil,
13:57
which I think would be priced at that time perhaps
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gde mislim da bi možda cena u to vreme,
13:59
in the area of 100,000 dollars, put money in the bank ...
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u toj oblasti bila 100 hiljada dolara, stavićete novac u banku...
14:02
that's a very significant incentive for getting out of San Francisco.
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ovo je veoma značajan podsticaj za odlazak iz San Franciska.
14:06
But you better be the first one out of town as the real estate values go to hell.
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Ali bolje vam je da budete prvi dok vrednost nekretnina odlazi do đavola.
14:09
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
14:14
Developing the Skycar has been a real challenge.
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Razvijanje letećeg automobila bio je pravi izazov.
14:17
Obviously I'm dependent on a lot of other people
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Očigledno sam zavisan od mnogo ljudi
14:19
believing in what I'm doing -- both financially and in technical help.
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koji veruju u to što radim -- kako finansijski tako i tehnički.
14:23
And that has --
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A to je --
14:25
you run into situations where you have this great acceptance of what you're doing,
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ulazite u situacije gde imate to sjajno prihvatanje onoga što radite,
14:29
and a lot of rejection of the same kind of thing.
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i mnogo odbijanja za istu stvar.
14:32
I characterized this emerging technology
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Okarakterisao sam ovu tehnologiju u nastajanju
14:36
in an aphorism,
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kroz aforizam,
14:38
as it's described,
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kao što je opisano,
14:41
which really talks about what I've experienced,
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i što zaista govori o onome što sam iskusio,
14:43
and I'm sure what other people may have experienced
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i onome što su, siguran sam i drugi možda iskusili
14:45
in emerging technologies.
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u nastajućim tehnologijama.
14:53
There's an interesting poll that came out recently
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Postoji zanimljivo istraživanje koje je nedavno izašlo
14:55
under NAS --
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pod Nacionalnom asocijacijom naučnika --
14:57
I think it's MSNBC --
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Mislim da je MSNBC (televizijska mreža) --
14:59
in which they asked the question,
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u kome su postavili pitanje,
15:01
"Are you in the market for a volantor?"
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"Da li ćete biti na tržištu za volantor"?
15:04
Twenty-three percent said, "Yes, as soon as possible."
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Dvadeset tri procenta odgovrilo je, "Da, što je pre moguće".
15:07
Forty-seven percent -- yes, as soon as they could -- price could come down.
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Četrdeset sedam procenta -- da, nakon što padnu cene.
15:10
Twenty-three percent said, "As soon as it's proven safe."
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dvadeset tri procenta je odgovorilo: "Čim se pokaže bezbednim".
15:13
Only seven percent said
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Samo sedam procenata je odgovorilo
15:15
that they wouldn't consider buying a Skycar.
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da ne bi razmatrali kupovinu letećeg automobila.
15:18
I'm encouraged by that. At least it makes me feel like,
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Ohrabren sam time. Bar se osećam,
15:22
to some extent, it is becoming self-evident.
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u neku ruku, kao da postaje očigledno.
15:25
That we need an alternative to the automobile,
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Da nam je potrebna alternativa automobilima,
15:27
at least for those 50-mile trips and more,
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bar za ona putovanja preko 80 kilometara,
15:29
so that the highways become usable in today's world.
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tako da auto-putevi u današnjem svetu postanu upotrebljivi.
15:32
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
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