Paul Moller: Take a ride in the Skycar

79,311 views ・ 2009-01-12

TED


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譯者: kane tan 審譯者: Leonard Lin
00:13
Many of you could ask the question, you know,
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你知道,許多人會問這個問題,
00:15
why is a flying car, or maybe more accurately,
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為什麼飛天車,或用更正確的講法,
00:18
a roadable aircraft, possible at this time?
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一個可以旋轉的飛行器,在現在是可行的?
00:22
A number of years ago,
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許多年以前,
00:24
Mr. Ford predicted that flying cars
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亨利.福特預測飛天車
00:26
of some form would be available.
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會以某種型態出現在世界上。
00:28
Now, 60 years later,
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而六十年後的今天,
00:30
I'm here to tell you why it's possible.
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我在這裡告訴你,為何它是可行的。
00:32
When I was about five years old,
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在我五歲的時候,
00:34
not very much -- about a year after
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時間差不多大概是
00:36
Mr. Ford made his predictions,
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福特發表他的預測之後一年,
00:38
I was living in a rural part of Canada,
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我當時住在加拿大的一個農村,
00:41
on the side of a mountain in a very isolated area.
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位在一個很偏僻的山腳下。
00:46
Getting to school, for a kid that was actually pretty short for his age,
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對一個在同年紀裡身材較矮小的小孩而言,
00:50
through the Canadian winter, was not a pleasant experience.
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在加拿大的冬天要去上學並不是件開心的經歷。
00:53
It was a trying and scary thing
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對那麼小的小孩而言
00:57
for a young kid to be going through.
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那是又難受又可怕的事情。
01:00
At the end of my first year in school, in the summer of that year,
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那年夏天,當我在學校的第一年結束時,
01:05
I discovered a couple hummingbirds
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我發現我家附近的一個倉庫裡,
01:08
that were caught in a shed near my home.
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發現了幾隻被困住的蜂鳥。
01:10
They'd worn themselves out,
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它們不停地衝撞著玻璃,
01:12
beating themselves against the window,
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並把體力都消耗掉了,
01:14
and, well, they were easy to capture.
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所以我很容易就抓住它們了。
01:16
I took them outside and as I let them go, that split second, even though they were very tired,
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當我把它們帶到外面要放它們走的瞬間,它們會先在空中盤旋一下,
01:20
that second I let them go they hovered for a second,
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即使它們已經很累了,
01:22
then zipped off into the distance.
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然後一瞬間就飛到很遠的地方了。
01:24
I thought, what a great way to get to school.
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我心想,這可真是上學的好方法。
01:26
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
01:29
For a kid at that age, this was like infinite speed, disappearing,
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對這年紀的小孩來說,這種消失的速度真是不可思議的快啊,
01:33
and I was very inspired by that.
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給我有相當大的激勵。
01:35
And so the next -- over the next
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於是在六十年之後,
01:37
six decades, believe it or not,
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信不信由你,
01:39
I've built a number of aircraft,
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我為了要製造出能夠像蜂鳥飛行的東西,
01:42
with the goal of creating something that could do for you, or me,
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讓它搭載著人們,
01:46
what the hummingbird does,
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給予人們更多的彈性,
01:48
and give you that flexibility.
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而製造了許多的飛行器。
01:51
I've called this vehicle, generically, a volantor,
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我把這部汽車,一般稱為直昇機,取名為 Volantor(飛行者),
01:55
after the Latin word "volant," meaning,
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源自於拉丁文中 "volant(飛行)" 這個字的意義,
01:57
to fly in a light, nimble manner.
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以期能夠輕盈、靈巧的飛行。
02:00
Volantor-like helicopter, perhaps.
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也許算是一種直昇機型態的飛行器。
02:02
The FAA, the controlling body above all,
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聯邦航空總署(FAA),那個管控在天上飛行的機構,
02:05
calls it a "powered lift aircraft."
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稱它為 "動力升降飛行器"。
02:08
And they've actually issued a pilot's license --
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並且他們特別為了這台飛行器
02:11
a powerlift pilot's license -- for this type of aircraft.
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而核發了一張飛行執照 - 一種動力升降機的飛行執照。
02:15
It's closer than you think. It's kind of remarkable when you consider that
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如你所想的,這相當的引人注目,
02:18
there are no operational powered lift aircraft.
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在這個沒有人相信有動力升降飛行器的年代。
02:21
So for once, perhaps, the government is ahead of itself.
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也許是頭一次,政府進度超前了。
02:25
The press calls my particular volantor a "Skycar."
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記者把我這獨特飛行器取名為"Skycar(飛天車)"。
02:30
This is a little bit earlier version of it,
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這是一台比較早期的版本,
02:33
that's why it's given the X designation,
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所以被稱為 X。
02:35
but it's a four-passenger aircraft
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但它是台可以當載四人的飛行器 -
02:37
that could take off vertically, like a helicopter --
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可以垂直升降,就像直昇機一樣,
02:39
therefore it doesn't need an airfield.
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因此它不需要跑道。
02:41
On the ground, it's powered electrically.
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在地上的時候,它是靠電力在運作。
02:45
It's actually classified as a motorcycle
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事實上它被歸類於摩托車,
02:48
because of the three wheels, which is a great asset
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因為它有三個輪子,這可是很有用的,
02:50
because it allows you, theoretically, to use this on the highways
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因為理論上它可以讓你在許多州的高速公路上奔馳,
02:52
in most states, and actually in all cities.
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事實上在所有的城市都可以。
02:55
So that's an asset because if you've got to deal with the crash protection issues
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它的另一項好處是,如果你連開車都會遇到車禍的話,
02:58
of the automobile, forget it -- you're never going to fly it.
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那別作夢吧,你不可能開著它飛的。
03:02
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
03:07
One could say that a helicopter
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你可以說直昇機的飛行方式,
03:09
does pretty much what the hummingbird does,
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很類似蜂鳥的行為模式,
03:12
and gets around in much the same way, and it's true,
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移動方式幾乎是一樣的,這並沒有錯,
03:14
but a helicopter is a very complex device.
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但是直昇機的結構很複雜。
03:18
It's expensive --
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而且它很貴,
03:20
so expensive that very few people could own or use it.
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只有極少數人負擔得起。
03:24
It's often been described because of its fragile nature and its complexity,
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由於它天性很脆弱,以及過於複雜,
03:28
as a series of parts -- a large number of parts --
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常被人形容它像是一組零件 - 一大群零件 -
03:30
flying in formation.
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在空中排列出隊形飛行著。
03:32
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
03:37
Another difference, and I have to describe this,
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另一個差異在於,我必須說明一下,
03:39
because it's very personal,
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因為它非常個人化,
03:41
another great difference between the helicopter
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直昇機與飛行者之間
03:43
and the volantor --
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有著另一項巨大差異 -
03:45
in my case the Skycar volantor --
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對我來說,飛天車-飛行者,
03:47
is the experience that I've had
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以我搭乘過這兩種(直昇機、飛天車)
03:49
in flying both of those.
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的經歷而言。
03:51
In a helicopter you feel -- and it's still a remarkable sensation --
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在直昇機上你會有一種很特殊的感覺,
03:54
you feel like you're being hauled up from above
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你覺得好像是被大型吊車
03:57
by a vibrating crane.
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從上面拉起來的感覺。
03:59
When you get in the Skycar -- and I can tell you,
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當你乘坐飛天車時,我可以告訴你,
04:01
there's only one other person that's flown it, but he had the same sensation --
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還有另一個人也乘坐過它飛行,但他也有和我一樣的感覺 -
04:04
you really feel like you're being lifted up
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你覺得你好像是被一張神奇魔毯
04:06
by a magic carpet,
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從下面將你舉起來一般,
04:09
without any vibration whatsoever. The sensation is unbelievable.
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而不是靠任何動力機具。那是一種不可思議的感覺。
04:12
And it's been a great motivator.
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對我來說這是一種很大的動力。
04:14
I only get to fly this vehicle occasionally,
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只有在我能說服的股東們
04:17
and only when I can persuade my stockholders
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讓我去開這台車的時候,
04:19
to let me do so,
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我才能偶爾去駕駛它飛行。
04:21
but it's still one of those wonderful experiences
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但在那段時間裡,這件事仍然是
04:24
that reward you for all that time.
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能夠鼓舞你的美好經驗之一.
04:30
What we really need is something to replace the automobile
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我們真正需要的,是能夠取代汽車
04:33
for those 50-plus mile trips.
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進行超過五十英哩旅程的東西。
04:36
Very few people realize that 50 mile-plus trips
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很少人知道這些超過五十英哩的旅程
04:38
make up 85 percent of the miles traveled in America.
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佔美國所有旅程中的百分之八十五。
04:41
If we can get rid of that,
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如果我們能夠將這部分移除,
04:43
then the highways will now be useful to you,
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那麼高速公路就會變得很有效率,
04:46
as contrasted by what's happening
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就不會像現在世界各地
04:48
in many parts of the world today.
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到處都有交通壅塞問題。
04:52
On this next slide, is an interesting history
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接下來這張是在說
04:56
of what we really have seen in infrastructure,
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我們對於一些必要設施的計畫,
05:00
because whether I give you a perfect Skycar,
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因為即使我給你一台完美的飛天車,
05:03
the perfect vehicle for use, it's going to have very little value to you
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一台完美的車子讓你使用, 對你幫助並不大
05:06
unless you've got a system to use it in.
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除非你有完整的系統來使用它。
05:08
I'm sure any of you have asked the question,
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我相信會有人問,
05:10
yeah, are there great things up there -- what am I going to do, get up there?
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是啊,會有什麼很棒的東西嗎?我能得到什麼呢?
05:12
It's bad enough on a highway, what's it going to be like to be in the air?
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高速公路就已經夠糟了,上了天空更是難以想像吧?
05:15
This world that you're going to be talking about tomorrow
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你所討論的未來
05:18
is going to be completely integrated. You're not going to be a pilot,
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將會有整合好的系統。你不用擔任駕駛,
05:20
you're going to be a passenger.
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你只要當乘客就好了。
05:22
And it's the infrastructure that really determines whether this process goes forward.
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這個設施將會決定這整個計畫是否能夠施行。
05:25
I can tell you, technically we can build Skycars --
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我可以告訴你,我們有技術去製造飛天車 -
05:27
my God, we went to the moon!
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老天,我們都已經登上月球了!
05:29
The technology there was much more difficult than what I'm dealing with here.
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上月球需要的技術可比製造飛天車難多了。
05:32
But we have to have these priority changes,
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但是我們需要先有一些改變,
05:34
we have to have infrastructure to go with this.
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我們需要一些設施來配合整個計畫。
05:36
Historically you see that we got around
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在歷史紀錄上
05:38
200 years ago by canals,
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你知道運河人們被使用了兩百多年,
05:40
and as that system disappeared, were replaced by railroads.
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隨之,我們使用鐵路來取代運河。
05:43
As that disappeared we came in with highways.
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接下來我們用高速公路取代一般鐵路。
05:45
But if you look at that top corner -- the highway system --
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但你看看上面角落這裡 - 高速公路系統 -
05:48
you see where we are today. Highways are no longer being built,
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你知道現況是什麼。我們不再繼續蓋高速公路了,
05:52
and that's a fact. You won't see any additional highways
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這就是事實。未來十年內,
05:55
in the next 10 years.
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你不會看見任何新的高速公路。
05:57
However, the next 10 years, if like the last 10 years,
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但在未來的十年,如果和過去十年一樣的話,
05:59
we're going to see 30 percent more traffic.
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我們會再增加百分之三十的交通量。
06:02
And where is that going to lead you to?
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這會導致我們使用什麼呢?
06:04
So the issue then, I've often asked, is
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所以我常常問我自己,
06:06
when is it going to happen?
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什麼時候才會有改變?
06:09
When are we going to be able to have these vehicles?
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我們何時才能有這些飛天車呢?
06:12
And of course, if you ask me, I'm going to give you a really optimistic view.
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當然,如果你問我,我會給你很樂觀的看法。
06:15
After all, I've been spending 60 years here believing it's going to happen tomorrow.
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畢竟我已經花了六十年,相信它未來一定會成真。
06:18
So, I'm not going to quote myself on this.
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所以我不自己來說這些。
06:21
I'd prefer to quote someone else,
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我比較想引用別人的話來說明,
06:23
who testified with me before Congress,
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他和我一起證實了飛天車的存在給國會議員看,
06:25
and in his position as head of NASA
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當時他正擔任太空總署(NASA)的首長,
06:29
put forward this particular vision
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曾經對於這台飛天車的未來
06:31
of the future of this type of aircraft.
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提出過這個特別的看法。
06:35
Now I would argue, actually, if you look at the fact that on the highways today,
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這邊我要修正一下,事實上,如果你看現在的高速公路,
06:38
you're only averaging about 30 miles per hour --
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依據交通部的資料,
06:41
on average, according to the DOT --
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每小時的平均速度大概只有30英哩,
06:44
the Skycar travels at over 300 miles an hour,
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飛天車的速度每小時可以超過300英哩,
06:46
up to 25,000 feet.
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而且是在兩萬五千英呎的空中。
06:49
And so, in effect, you could see perhaps a tenfold increase
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所以在實際效果上,你會發現
06:51
in the ability to get around
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當考慮到速度時,
06:54
as far as speed is concerned.
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增加的幅度將近十倍。
07:01
Unbeknownst to many of you,
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大部分的人都不知道,
07:04
the highway in the sky that I'm talking about here
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我現在所提的空中交通這件事,
07:06
has been under construction for 10 years.
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已經建構了約十年。
07:09
It makes use of the GPS -- you're familiar with GPS in your automobile,
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它使用了GPS - 就是在你車上那個你熟悉的 GPS,
07:12
but you may not be familiar with the fact that there's a GPS U.S.,
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但你可能不知道 GPS 還有分美國的 GPS,
07:15
there's a Russian GPS,
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俄國的 GPS,
07:17
and there's a new GPS system
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還有一個新的
07:19
going to Europe, called Galileo.
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在歐洲使用的 GPS 系統叫做 Galileo(伽利略)。
07:21
With those three systems,
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藉由這三套系統,
07:23
you have what is always necessary --
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你就有了某種程度上
07:25
a level of redundancy that says,
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所必要的備用系統﹔
07:27
if one system fails, you'll still have a way
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當某個系統失去作用時,你還能夠確認
07:29
to make sure that you're being controlled.
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一切都在掌握之中。
07:31
Because if you're in this world, where computers are controlling what you're doing,
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因為你生活在這個依靠電腦控制一切的世界中,
07:34
it's going to be very critical that something can't fail on you.
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想要不遇到電腦當機實在是很困難的事啊。
07:39
How would a trip in a Skycar work?
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要如何利用飛天車完成一趟旅程呢?
07:41
Well, you can't right now
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嗯,你現在不可能直接從你家起飛,
07:43
take off from your home because it's too noisy.
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因為實在太吵了。
07:46
I mean to be able to take off from your home, you'd have to be extremely quiet.
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如果要從你家起飛的話,那必須要非常安靜才行。
07:49
But it's still fairly quiet.
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不過它已經算是很安靜了。
07:51
You'd motor, electrically, to a vertiport,
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你可以先駕駛到一個飛天車起降場,
07:55
which may be a few blocks, maybe even a few miles away.
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也許是幾個路口遠,或甚至幾英哩遠。
07:57
This is clearly, as I said earlier, a roadable aircraft,
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如我先前所說,當你搭乘飛天車時,
08:00
and you're not going to spend that much time on the road.
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你不需要花太多時間在道路上。
08:02
After all, if you can fly like that,
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畢竟,如果你可以讓它飛,
08:04
why are you going to drive around on a highway?
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你又何必在高速公路上跑?
08:06
Go to a local vertiport,
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到了當地的飛天車起降場後,
08:08
plug in your destination,
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輸入你的目的地,
08:11
delivered almost like a passenger.
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然後就當一個乘客被送到目的地。
08:15
You can play computer games, you can sleep, you can read on the way.
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在路上你可以玩電動玩具、可以睡覺也可以看書。
08:19
This is the world -- there won't be you as a pilot. And I know the pilots in the audience aren't going to like that --
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在這構想中,飛行員是過去式了。我知道聽眾裡的飛行員可能會不高興,
08:22
and I've had a lot of bad feedback
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我也收到許多想要在天空中飛行
08:24
from people who want to be up there, flying around
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感受遨遊天際的人們
08:26
and experiencing that.
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給我的不好回應。
08:29
And of course, I suppose like recreational parks you can still do that.
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當然,我想你還是可以在遊樂場中開飛天車。
08:32
But the vehicle itself is going to be a very, very controlled environment.
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不過這台車的控制介面將會有所限制。
08:36
Or it's going to have no use to you as a person who might use such a system.
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否則對於想用這系統的人而言,它可能會變成毫無用處。
08:40
We flew the first vehicle for the international press
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在1965年,我剛開始這一切時,
08:43
in 1965, when I really got it started.
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我們曾經飛行第一架飛天車給國際記者看過。
08:45
I was a professor at the U.C. Davis System,
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我當時是UC Davis系統公司的教授,
08:47
and I got a lot of excitement around this,
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對於這個我是相當興奮的,
08:49
and I was able to fund the initiation of the program back in that time.
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而那時我因此替這個計畫募集到足夠的款項。
08:53
And then through the various years
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過了幾年之後,
08:55
we invented various vehicles.
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我們發明了各種飛天車。
08:57
Actually the critical point was in 1989,
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事實上關鍵點在1989年,
09:00
when we demonstrated the stability of this vehicle --
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當時我們展示這台飛天車的的穩定性 -
09:02
how completely stable it was in all circumstances,
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它不論是任何狀況下都很穩定,
09:05
which is of course very critical.
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這是相當重要的。
09:07
Still not a practical vehicle during all of this,
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那時我們還沒研發出真正可以投入應用的車型,
09:10
but moving in the right direction, we believe.
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不過我們相信我們的方向是對的。
09:14
Finally, in the early part of --
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終於,在最近幾年 -
09:17
or actually the middle of 2002,
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正確來說是 2002 年中期,
09:21
we flew the 400 -- M400, which was the four-passenger vehicle.
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我們讓 M400 飛了起來,這是一台四人座的飛天車。
09:25
In this case here, we're flying it remotely, as we always did at the beginning.
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我們使用遙控的方式駕駛它,如同我們一開始所做的一樣。
09:29
And we had very small power plants in it at this time.
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這次我們使用了很小的發電機。
09:32
We are now installing larger powerplants,
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我們現在改裝幾個較大的發電機,
09:34
which will make it possible for me to get back on board.
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這樣才能讓我重新坐到車上。
09:36
A vertical-takeoff aircraft
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這種垂直起降的飛行器
09:38
is not the safest vehicle during the test flight program.
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在試飛期間並不是一個最安全的飛天車。
09:42
There's an old adage that applied for the years
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在 1950 到 1970 年這段期間,
09:45
between 1950s and 1970s,
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許多製造飛機的公司
09:48
when every aeronautical company
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都在努力發展垂直起降飛行器,
09:50
was working on vertical-takeoff aircraft.
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當時有一句格言。
09:54
A vertical-takeoff aircraft
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一台垂直身降的飛行器
09:56
needs an artificial stabilization system --
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需要一個人造的平衡系統 -
09:58
that's essential.
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這是絕對必要的。
10:00
At least for the hover,
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至少對於盤旋
10:02
and the low-speed flight.
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和低速飛行是如此。
10:06
If that single-stability system,
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如果那唯一的平衡系統
10:08
that brain that flies that aircraft, fails, or if the engine fails,
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駕駛飛天車的大腦當機了,或是引擎故障了,
10:12
that vehicle crashes. There is no option to that.
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這台飛天車就會墜毀。沒有其他選擇。
10:15
And the adage that I'm referring to,
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我剛提到的格言,
10:17
that applied at that time,
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就是用在這種時候,
10:19
was that nothing comes down faster
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是說沒有東西下降的速度
10:21
than a VTOL aircraft upside down.
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可以比得上飛天車倒栽蔥的時候還快。
10:23
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
10:25
That's a macabre comment because we lost a lot of pilots.
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這是個可怕的說法,因為我們已經失去了許多的飛行員。
10:28
In fact, the aircraft companies gave up on
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事實上這幾年來,
10:30
vertical-takeoff aircraft
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有許多製造飛機的公司,
10:32
more or less for a number of years.
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放棄製造垂直升降的飛行器。
10:34
And there's really only one operational aircraft in the world today
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現今世界上只有唯一一架算得上實用的飛行器,
10:37
that's a vertical-takeoff aircraft -- as distinct from a helicopter --
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這是台垂直升降的飛行器 - 不同於直昇機 -
10:39
and that's the Hawker Harrier jump jet.
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那就是鷹式戰鬥噴射機。
10:47
A vertical-takeoff aircraft,
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一架垂直升降飛行器,
10:49
like the hummingbird,
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就像蜂鳥一樣,
10:51
has a very high metabolism,
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有著快速的新陳代謝系統,
10:53
which means it requires a lot of energy.
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意思是說它會消耗大量能量。
10:56
Getting that energy is very, very difficult. It all comes down
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要得到這種能量很不容易。問題在於那顆發電機
10:59
to that power plant -- how to get a large amount of power in a small package.
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- 要怎麼用較小的尺寸獲得較大的能量。
11:05
Fortunately, Dr. Felix Wankel
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幸好,Felix Wankel 博士
11:07
invented the rotary engine.
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發明了轉子引擎。
11:10
A very unique engine -- it's round,
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一種很獨特的引擎 - 它是圓的,
11:12
it's small, it's vibration-free.
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它很小,幾乎不太會震動。
11:15
It fits exactly where we need to fit it,
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剛好符合我們所需的尺寸,
11:17
right in the center of the hubs of the ducts in the system --
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可以裝置在系統的正中心 -
11:20
very critical. In fact that engine --
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很不容易做到。事實上這顆引擎 -
11:22
for those who are into the automobile --
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對於汽車愛好者來說
11:24
know that it recently is applied to the RX8 --
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應該很熟悉,它就是
11:26
the Mazda.
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馬自達 RX-8 所使用的引擎。
11:28
And that sportscar won Sports Car of the Year.
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那台跑車贏得了當年的車賽。
11:32
Wonderful engine.
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那是很棒的引擎。
11:34
In that application, it generates one horsepower per pound,
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使用時,每磅可以產生一匹馬力,
11:36
which is twice as good as your car engine today,
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已經比現在的車子好上兩倍,
11:39
but only half of what we need.
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但只有我們需要的一半。
11:41
My company has spent 35 years
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我們公司花了35年
11:44
and many millions of dollars taking that rotary engine,
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以及幾百萬美金去改良這個轉子引擎,
11:47
which was invented in the late '50s, and getting it to the point that we get
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事實上它早在50年代末期就出現了,
11:50
over two horsepower per pound, reliably, and critical.
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最後終於能穩定的達到每磅兩匹馬力以上。
11:53
We actually get 175 horsepower
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事實上我們只用一立方英呎的空間
11:56
into one cubic foot.
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就可以得到175匹馬力。
11:59
We have eight engines in this vehicle.
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我們在這台飛天車上裝了八顆引擎。
12:01
We have four computers. We have two parachutes.
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我們有四部電腦還有兩具降落傘。
12:05
Redundancy is the critical issue here.
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備用系統在這兒是很重要的。
12:07
If you want to stay alive you've got to have backups.
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如果你想活下去,你就要準備一些備用品。
12:09
And we have actually flown this vehicle and lost an engine,
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我們過去試飛這台飛天車時,確實曾發生過一具引擎故障,
12:11
and continued to hover.
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而且還能維持盤旋狀態。
12:13
The computers back up each other. There's a voting system --
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這些電腦互為備用系統。這兒有個投票系統 --
12:16
if one computer is not agreeing with the other three,
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如果某台電腦的判斷被另外三台否決,
12:20
it's kicked out of the system.
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它就會被踢出這個系統。
12:21
And then you have three -- you still have the triple redundancy.
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於是你剩下三台電腦 -- 你還有三個備用系統。
12:24
If one of those fails, you still have a second chance.
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如果這三台其中一台故障,你還有第二個逃生的機會。
12:27
If you stick around, then good luck.
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如果你還不回航,那就多保重了。
12:29
There won't be a third chance.
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不會有第三次機會的。
12:33
The parachutes are there -- hopefully,
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上面還有降落傘,
12:35
more for psychological than real reasons, but
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希望只是求心安而不是真的會用到,
12:38
they will be an ultimate backup if it comes to that.
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真的需要時,它們就是最好的備用品了。
12:41
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
12:44
I'd like to show you an animation in this next one,
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接下來我要給你們看一段動畫,
12:46
which is one element
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它是關於,
12:48
of the Skycar's use,
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飛天車的使用原理,
12:50
but it's one that demonstrates how it could be used.
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並示範我們可以怎麼去運用它。
12:52
You could think of it personally in your own terms,
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你可以用自己的角度去思考,
12:54
of how you might use it.
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你會怎麼去使用它。
12:56
Video: Skycar dispatched, launch rescue vehicle for San Francisco.
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飛天車出發了,前往舊金山進行拯救任務。
13:28
Paul Moller: I believe that personal transportation
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我相信如同 Goldin 博士所說,
13:30
in something like the Skycar,
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在未來十年內,
13:32
probably in another volantor form as well,
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類似於飛天車的個人交通工具
13:35
will be a significant part of our lives,
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或其他型態的飛行器,
13:38
as Dr. Goldin says, within the next 10 years.
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將會成為人們生活中重要的一部份。
13:41
And it's going to change the demographics in a very significant way.
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這將會明顯的改變人們的居住型態。
13:45
If you can live 75 miles from San Francisco and get there in 15 minutes,
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如果你能住在離舊金山75英哩但只需要15分鐘的交通時間,
13:49
you're going to sell your 700,000-dollar apartment,
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那你就可以賣掉價值七十萬美金的公寓,
13:53
buy an upscale home on the side of a mountain,
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然後在山邊買一棟更高檔的房子,
13:55
buy a Skycar,
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再買一部飛天車,
13:57
which I think would be priced at that time perhaps
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我想那時後飛天車的價格大概
13:59
in the area of 100,000 dollars, put money in the bank ...
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只要十萬美金左右,剩下的錢可以存進銀行 ...
14:02
that's a very significant incentive for getting out of San Francisco.
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讓你把錢存下來是購買的一大誘因 ...
14:06
But you better be the first one out of town as the real estate values go to hell.
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但你最好是第一個搬離都市的,因為房地產價格會暴跌。
14:09
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
14:14
Developing the Skycar has been a real challenge.
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開發飛天車是一項很大的挑戰。
14:17
Obviously I'm dependent on a lot of other people
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很明顯的,我仰賴很多相信我的人們
14:19
believing in what I'm doing -- both financially and in technical help.
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提供給我金錢上與技術上的幫助。
14:23
And that has --
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畢竟對於同一件事情,
14:25
you run into situations where you have this great acceptance of what you're doing,
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你可能會遇到接受度很高的人,
14:29
and a lot of rejection of the same kind of thing.
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也可能遇到完全不認同的人。
14:32
I characterized this emerging technology
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我用一句格言來描述
14:36
in an aphorism,
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這項嶄新的技術,
14:38
as it's described,
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而這格言描述的是
14:41
which really talks about what I've experienced,
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我所經歷過的一切,
14:43
and I'm sure what other people may have experienced
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以及我相信其他人對於嶄新的技術
14:45
in emerging technologies.
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也會有的經驗。
14:53
There's an interesting poll that came out recently
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最近有個有趣的投票
14:55
under NAS --
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在 NAS --
14:57
I think it's MSNBC --
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應該是 MSNBC 上 --
14:59
in which they asked the question,
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他們問了這個問題,
15:01
"Are you in the market for a volantor?"
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"你會想買飛天車嗎?"
15:04
Twenty-three percent said, "Yes, as soon as possible."
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23% 的人說,「會,我想趕快入手。」
15:07
Forty-seven percent -- yes, as soon as they could -- price could come down.
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47% 的人說,「會,只要價格不要太高我就買。」
15:10
Twenty-three percent said, "As soon as it's proven safe."
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23% 的人說,「只要能證明它是安全的我就買。」
15:13
Only seven percent said
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只有 7% 的人說
15:15
that they wouldn't consider buying a Skycar.
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他們不會想買飛天車。
15:18
I'm encouraged by that. At least it makes me feel like,
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這個結果給予我很大的鼓勵。至少讓我覺得,
15:22
to some extent, it is becoming self-evident.
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某個角度來看,它可以證明
15:25
That we need an alternative to the automobile,
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我們需要汽車的替代品
15:27
at least for those 50-mile trips and more,
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至少是對於超過 50英哩的旅程,
15:29
so that the highways become usable in today's world.
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這樣高速公路才會變得有效率。
15:32
Thank you.
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謝謝大家。
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