Future tech will give you the benefits of city life anywhere | Julio Gil

Prevodilac: Ivana Korom Lektor: Mile Živković

Today, more than half of the world's population lives in cities.

Više od polovine svetske populacije danas živi u gradovima.

The urbanization process started in the late 1700s

Proces urbanizacije je počeo u kasnom 18. veku

and has been increasing since then.

i od tada raste.

The prediction is that by 2050,

Predviđanje je, da će do 2050.

66 percent of the population will live in cities

66% populacije živeti u gradovima,

and the United Nations, the World Health Organization,

a Ujedinjene nacije, Svetska zdravstvena organizacija

the World Economic Forum, are warning us,

i Svetski ekonomski forum nas upozoravaju

if we don't plan for the increased density,

da, ako ne planiramo povećanu gustinu naseljenosti,

current problems in our cities, like inequality, congestion, crime

sadašnji gradski problemi, kao što su nejednakost, zastoji, kriminal,

can only get worse.

samo će se pogoršati.

As a result, urban planners and city developers

Posledica toga je da urbanisti i gradski arhitekte

are putting a lot of effort and creativity

ulažu mnogo napora i kreativnosti

in designing our future, denser, bigger cities.

da projektuju naše buduće, gušće, veće gradove.

But I have a different opinion.

Ali ja sam drugačijeg mišljenja.

I think urbanization is actually reaching the end of its cycle,

Mislim da urbanizacija dostiže svoj kraj

and now people are going to start moving back to the countryside.

i sada će ljudi početi da se sele nazad na selo.

And you may think, "But what about the trend?"

Pomislićete: "A šta je sa trendom?"

Well, let me tell you,

Pa, dozvolite da vam kažem,

socioeconomic trends don't last forever.

socioekonomski trendovi ne traju večno.

You know, 12,000 years ago

Znate, pre 12.000 godina

everybody was perfectly happy

svi su bili savršeno srećni

roaming the land, hunting and gathering.

dok su lutali zemljom, lovili i sakupljali.

And then, the trend changes,

A onda se trend promeni,

and the new thing is to live in a farm and have cattle,

i novost je živeti na farmi i gajiti stoku

until it changes again.

dok se trend ponovo ne promeni.

When we get to the industrial revolution.

Dok ne stignemo do industrijske revolucije.

Actually, that is what started the urbanization process.

Zapravo, to je i započelo proces urbanizacije.

And you know what triggered it?

A znate šta je bio okidač?

Steam power, machines,

Parni pogon, mašine,

new chemical processes --

novi hemijski procesi -

in two words, technological innovation.

u dve reči - tehnološke inovacije.

And I believe technology can also bring the end of this cycle.

A mislim da tehnologija može takođe dovesti do kraja ovog ciklusa.

I've been working on innovation for most of my career.

Većim delom svoje karijere bavim se inovacijama.

I love it. I love my job.

Volim to. Volim svoj posao.

It allows me to work with drones, with 3D printers and smart glasses,

Omogućava mi da radim sa dronovima, 3D štampačima, pametnim naočarima,

and not just those you can buy in the shop but also prototypes.

i to ne samo onim koje možete kupiti nego i sa prototipovima.

It's a lot of fun sometimes.

Ponekad je veoma zabavno.

Now, some of these technologies

Neke od tih tehnologija

are opening new possibilities that will radically change

otvaraju nove mogućnosti koje će radikalno promeniti

the way we did things before

način na koji smo do sada radili stvari

and in a few years,

i za nekoliko godina

they may allow us to enjoy the benefits of city life

možda će nam omogućiti da uživamo u blagodetima gradskog života

from anywhere.

sa bilo kog mesta.

Think about it.

Razmislite o tome.

If you could live in a place with a lower crime rate

Da možete da živite na mestu sa manjom stopom kriminala,

and more space

sa više prostora,

and a lower cost of living

nižim troškovima života

and less traffic,

i manje saobraćaja,

of course many people would want that,

naravno da bi mnogo ljudi to želelo,

but they feel they don't have a choice.

ali osećaju da nemaju izbora.

You have to live in the city.

Morate da živite u gradu.

Well, in the past, people moved to the cities

U prošlosti, ljudi su se selili u gradove,

not because they loved the city itself

ne zato što su voleli same gradove,

but for the things you could have in a city,

nego zbog stvari koje ste u njima imali,

more job opportunities,

više prilika za posao,

easier access to services and goods

lakši pristup uslugama i robi,

and a rich social life.

i bogat društveni život.

So let's dive deeper.

Hajde da pogledamo detaljnije.

More jobs and career opportunities.

Više prilika za karijeru.

Is that still true today,

Da li je to još uvek istina,

because the office people are starting to realize

jer ljudi koji rade u kancelarijama počinju da shvataju

that working in the office and being in the office

da raditi u kancelariji i provoditi vreme u kancelariji

may not be the same thing anymore.

možda više nisu ista stvar.

According to a study by Global Workplace Analytics,

Prema jednoj studiji koju je radio Global Workplace Analytics,

more than 80 percent of the US workforce would like to work from home.

više od 80% američke radne snage bi želelo da radi od kuće.

And do you know how much it costs for a company to even have an office?

A znate li koliko jednu kompaniju košta da uopšte ima kancelariju?

11,000 dollars per employee per year.

11.000 dolara po zaposlenom godišnje.

If only half of those workers

Da samo polovina od tih radnika radi na daljinu,

would telework even 50 percent of the time,

čak samo 50% vremena,

the savings in the states would exceed 500 billion dollars,

ušteda u saveznim državama bi bila veća od 500 milijardi dolara,

and it could reduce greenhouse gases by 54 million tons.

a smanjenje gasova koji izazivaju efekat staklene bašte, 54 miliona tona.

That is the equivalent

To je kao kad biste 10 miliona automobila

of 10 million cars off the streets for a whole year.

uklonili sa ulica na godinu dana.

But even though most people would want to telework,

Ali čak iako bi većina ljudi želela da radi da daljinu,

current technology makes the experience isolating.

uz trenutnu tehnologiju to je usamljeničko iskustvo.

It's not comfortable.

Nije udobno.

It doesn't feel like being there.

Ne osećate se kao da ste tamo.

But that is going to change

Ali to će se promeniti

by the convergence of two technologies:

spajanjem dve tehnologije:

augmented reality and telepresence robots.

proširene realnosti i teleprisutnih robota.

Augmented reality already today

Proširena realnost vam već danas

allows you to take your office environment everywhere with you.

dozvoljava da okruženje svoje kancelarije ponesete svuda sa sobom.

All you need is a wearable computer, a pair of smart glasses,

Potreban vam je samo prenosni računar, par pametnih naočara

and you can take your emails and your spreadsheets

i možete svoje mejlove i tabele

with you wherever you go.

poneti kuda god da idete.

And video conferences and video calls have become very common these days,

A video konferencije i pozivi su ovih dana uobičajeni

but they still need improvement.

ali im je potrebno unapređenje.

I mean, all those little faces on a flat screen,

Mislim, sva ta mala lica na ravnom ekranu,

sometimes you don't even know who is talking.

ponekad ne znate ni ko govori.

Now, we already have something way better than static videocalls:

E sad, već imamo nešto mnogo bolje od statičnih video poziva:

your average telepresence robot.

prosečnog teleprisutnog robota.

I call it tablet on a stick.

Ja ga zovem tablet na štapu.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

You can control, you can move around,

Možete da upravljate njime, da se krećete naokolo,

you can control what you're looking at.

da kontrolišete u šta gledate.

It's way better, but far from perfect.

Mnogo je bolje, ali daleko od savršenog.

You know how they say

Znate kako kažu,

that most human communication is nonverbal?

da je najhumanija komunikacija neverbalna?

Well, the robot doesn't give you any of that.

Pa, robot vam ne daje ništa od toga.

It looks like an alien.

Izgleda kao vanzemaljac.

But with advances in augmented reality,

Ali uz naprednu proširenu stvarnost,

it will be easy to wrap the robot in a nice hologram

biće lako umotati robota lepim hologramom

that actually looks and moves like a person.

koji zaista izgleda i kreće se kao osoba.

That will do it.

To će poslužiti.

Or else, forget the robot.

Ili u stvari, zaboravite na robota.

We go full VR,

Imaćemo potpunu virtuelnu realnost

and everybody meets in cyberspace.

i svi će se sretati u sajber prostoru.

Give it a couple of years and that will feel so real,

Za par godina će to delovati tako stvarno,

you won't tell the difference.

da nećete znati razliku.

So what was the next reason why people move to cities?

Šta je bio naredni razlog zbog kog ljudi idu u gradove?

Access to services and goods.

Pristup robi i uslugama.

But today you can do all that online.

Ali danas sve to možete preko interneta.

According to a study made by comScore,

Prema jednom istraživanju koje je radio comScore,

online shoppers in the US last year

prošle godine su, u Americi, kupci preko interneta

did more than half of their retail purchases online,

više od polovine svojih kupovina obavili putem interneta,

and the global market for e-commerce

a globalno tržište elektronske trgovine

is estimated to be at two trillion dollars.

procenjuje se na dva biliona dolara.

And it's expected to reach 2.38 by the end of 2017,

I očekuje se da dostigne 2,38 do kraja 2017,

according to eMarketer.

prema podacima eMarketera.

Now, from a logistics standpoint,

Sa stanovišta logistike,

density is good for deliveries.

gustina je dobra za dostave.

Supplying goods to a shopping mall is easy.

Dostava robe tržnom centru je jednostavna.

You can send big shipments to the shop,

Možete poslati velike isporuke prodavnici,

and people will go there, pick it up and take it home themselves.

ljudi će otići tamo, kupiti i sami poneti kući.

E-commerce means we need to ship onesies

E-trgovina znači da moramo da šaljemo pojedine komade

and have them home delivered.

i da ih dostavljamo na adresu.

That's more expensive.

To je mnogo skuplje.

It's like the difference between having a birthday party for 20 people

To je kao razlika između rođendanske zabave za 20 ljudi

or bringing a piece of the cake

i nošenja parčeta kolača

to each of your 20 friends at their place.

svakom od 20 prijatelja na njihovu adresu.

But at least in the city,

Ali u gradu,

they live close to each other.

oni barem žive blizu jedni drugih.

Density helps.

Gustina pomaže.

Now, e-commerce deliveries in the countryside,

Sad, dostave robe na selo,

those take forever.

one traju večno.

The truck sometimes needs to drive miles between one address and the next one.

Kamion mora nekad da ide kilometrima od jedne do druge adrese.

Those are the most expensive deliveries of all.

To su najskuplje od svih dostava.

But we already have a solution for that:

Ali već imamo rešenje za to:

drones.

dronovi.

A vehicle carrying a squadron of drones.

Vozilo koje nosi flotu dronova.

The driver does some of the deliveries

Vozač obavlja neke dostave,

while the drones are flying back and forth from the truck as it moves.

a dronovi lete sa njega i nazad dok je kamion u pokretu.

That way, the average cost for delivery is reduced,

Na taj način, prosečna cena dostave je smanjena,

and voila:

i gle -

affordable e-commerce services in the countryside.

pristupačne usluge e-trgovine na selu.

You will see:

Videćete:

the new homes of our teleworkers

nove kuće naših radnika na daljinu

will probably have a drone pod in the yard.

verovatno će u dvorištu imati površinu za sletanje drona.

So once the final mile delivery is not a problem,

Jednom kad dostava više ne bude problem,

you don't need to be in the city to buy things anymore.

više nećete morati da budete u gradu zbog kupovine.

So that's two.

To je drugo.

Now, what was the third reason why people move to cities?

Koji je bio treći razlog zbog kog se ljudi sele u gradove?

A rich social life.

Bogat društveni život.

They would need to be in the city for that these days.

Ovih dana zbog toga morate da budete u gradu.

Because people these days,

Jer danas,

they make friends, they chat, gossip and flirt

ljudi sklapaju prijateljstva, ćaskaju, flertuju

from the comfort of their sofa.

iz svojih udobnih fotelja.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And while wearing their favorite pajamas.

U svojoj omiljenoj pidžami.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

There are over two billion active social media users in the world.

Postoji preko dve milijarde aktivnih korisnika društvenih medija u svetu.

In a way, that makes you think like we are connected

Na neki način, to vas navodi na misao da smo svi povezani

no matter where we are.

gde god da se nalazimo.

But OK, not completely.

Ali dobro, ne u potpunosti.

Sometimes you still need some real human contact.

Ponekad vam je ipak potrebno malo ljudskog kontakta.

Ironically, the city, with its population density,

Ironično, gusto naseljeni grad

is not always the best for that.

nije uvek najbolji za to.

Actually, as social groups become smaller,

Zapravo, kako se društvene grupe smanjuju,

they grow stronger.

one jačaju.

A recent study made in the UK

Nedavno istraživanje iz Velike Britanije,

by the Office for National Statistics

koju je sprovela Kancelarija nacionalne statistike,

showed a higher life satisfaction rating

pokazala je veći nivo zadovoljstva životom

among people living in rural areas.

među ljudima u ruralnim krajevima.

So as people settle in the countryside,

Dakle, kako se ljudi budu naseljavali u sela,

well, they will buy local groceries,

kupovaće lokalne namirnice,

fresh groceries, foodstuff,

sveže namirnice, hranu,

maintenance services.

usluge održavanja.

So handymen, small workshops, service companies will thrive.

Tako će majstori, male radionice i uslužne firme cvetati.

Maybe some of the industrial workers from the cities

Možda će neki od industrijskih radnika iz gradova,

displaced by the automation

koje je zamenila automatizacija,

will find a nice alternative job here,

pronaći alternativne poslove ovde,

and they will move too.

pa će se i oni doseliti.

And as people move to the countryside,

I kako se ljudi doseljavaju na selo,

how is that going to be?

kako će to izgledati?

Think about autonomous,

Pomislite na autonomne kuće,

off-the-grid houses with solar panels,

koje se napajaju van mreže, solarnim panelima,

with wind turbines and waste recycling utilities,

sa vetrenjačama i pogonima za preradu otpada,

our new homes producing their own energy and using it to also power the family car.

naše nove kuće proizvode sopstvenu struju i koriste je da napajaju naš automobil.

I mean, cities have always been regarded as being more energy-efficient,

Mislim, gradovi su uvek smatrani energetski efikasnijim,

but let me tell you,

ali vidite,

repopulating the countryside can be eco too.

ponovno naseljavanje sela takođe može biti ekološko.

By now, you're probably thinking of all the advantages of country living.

Do sada verovatno mislite na sve prednosti seoskog života.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

I did it myself.

I ja sam tako mislio.

Six years ago, my wife and I, we packed our stuff,

Pre šest godina, moja žena i ja smo spakovali sve stvari,

we sold our little apartment in Spain,

prodali naš mali stan u Španiji

and for the same money we bought a house with a garden

i za isti iznos novca kupili kuću sa baštom

and little birds that come singing in the morning.

i ptičicama koje ujutru dolaze da pevaju.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

It's so nice there.

Tamo je toliko lepo.

And we live in a small village, not really the countryside yet.

Živimo u malom selu, to još uvek nije potpuno ruralno.

That is going to be my next move:

To će biti moj sledeći korak:

a refurbished farmhouse,

obnovljena kuća na farmi,

not too far from a city, not too close.

ne predaleko od grada, ne previše blizu.

And now we'll make sure to have a good spot for drones to land.

Obezbedićemo dobro mesto za sletanje dronova.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

But hey, that's me.

Ali, to sam ja.

It doesn't have to be you,

To ne morate biti vi,

because it would seem like I'm trying to convince somebody

jer bi izgledalo kao da želim da ubedim nekoga

to come join us in the country.

da nam se pridruži na selu.

I'm not.

Ne želim.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

I don't need more people to come.

Ne treba da dođe više ljudi.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

I just think they will

Samo mislim da hoće,

once they realize they can have the same benefits the city has.

kad shvate da mogu da imaju iste blagodeti kao u gradu.

But if you don't like the country,

Ali ako ne volite selo,

I have good news for you, too.

imam i za vas dobre vesti.

Cities will not disappear.

Gradovi neće nestati.

But as people move out,

Ali kako se ljudi iseljavaju,

a lower density will help them recover a better flow and balance.

manja naseljenost će pomoći da povrate bolji tok i balans.

Anyway, I guess now you have some thinking to do.

U svakom slučaju, sada imate o čemu da razmišljate.

Do you still think you need to live in the city?

Da li i dalje mislite da morate da živite u gradu?

And more importantly,

I što je važnije,

do you want to?

da li želite?

Thank you very much.

Mnogo hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)