Future tech will give you the benefits of city life anywhere | Julio Gil

翻译人员: Tianyu Qiao 校对人员: Yu Xie

Today, more than half of the world's population lives in cities.

如今 城市人口已占 世界总人口的一半以上

The urbanization process started in the late 1700s

早在18世纪 城市化进程就已开始

and has been increasing since then.

并在不断加速

The prediction is that by 2050,

据推测 截至2050年

66 percent of the population will live in cities

将有66%的世界人口在城市安家

and the United Nations, the World Health Organization,

一些国际组织 包括联合国 世界卫生组织

the World Economic Forum, are warning us,

以及世界经济论坛 都发出了警告

if we don't plan for the increased density,

如若无视城市人口密度的增大 不加以合理的规划

current problems in our cities, like inequality, congestion, crime

当今城市中的种种问题 如不平等 过度拥堵 犯罪等

can only get worse.

只会变得更糟

As a result, urban planners and city developers

因此 城市规划开发者们

are putting a lot of effort and creativity

正绞尽脑汁地设计出

in designing our future, denser, bigger cities.

一个未来人口密度更大 城市规模更大的建筑蓝图

But I have a different opinion.

但我有个不同的见解

I think urbanization is actually reaching the end of its cycle,

我认为现在 城市化 已经到了一个周期的末尾

and now people are going to start moving back to the countryside.

接下来人们将开始重返乡村

And you may think, "But what about the trend?"

你可能会问 那城市化趋势 会怎么发展下去

Well, let me tell you,

我是这么认为的

socioeconomic trends don't last forever.

社会经济趋势是 不会永久发展下去的

You know, 12,000 years ago

12000年前

everybody was perfectly happy

所有人都觉得

roaming the land, hunting and gathering.

游牧 打猎以及群居 这样的生活方式挺好的

And then, the trend changes,

之后社会经济趋势发生了转变

and the new thing is to live in a farm and have cattle,

人们开始住在农场里养牛

until it changes again.

直到风向再一次转变

When we get to the industrial revolution.

人类进入了工业革命时代

Actually, that is what started the urbanization process.

事实上这也是城市化进程的开端

And you know what triggered it?

是什么刺激了城市化呢

Steam power, machines,

蒸汽动力 机器

new chemical processes --

新的化学处理过程

in two words, technological innovation.

用四个字来概括 即技术革新

And I believe technology can also bring the end of this cycle.

我认为技术同样能 带我们进入下一阶段

I've been working on innovation for most of my career.

我的职业生涯中 大部分时间都和创新打交道

I love it. I love my job.

我喜欢这行 很爱我的工作

It allows me to work with drones, with 3D printers and smart glasses,

借助工作我可以接触到 无人机 3D打印机 还有智能眼镜

and not just those you can buy in the shop but also prototypes.

除了这些在商店销售的 还有原型机

It's a lot of fun sometimes.

有时候真的非常有趣

Now, some of these technologies

其中一些高科技产品

are opening new possibilities that will radically change

带来了更多新的可能

the way we did things before

来改变我们以往做事的方式

and in a few years,

在未来几年中

they may allow us to enjoy the benefits of city life

这些科技或许能让我们在任何地方

from anywhere.

都享受到城市生活的便利

Think about it.

想想看

If you could live in a place with a lower crime rate

如果有一个犯罪率更低

and more space

空间更大

and a lower cost of living

生活成本更低

and less traffic,

交通也不拥堵的地方

of course many people would want that,

当然会让很多人趋之若鹜

but they feel they don't have a choice.

但很多人认为他们没有这样的选择

You have to live in the city.

因此不得不住在城市里

Well, in the past, people moved to the cities

在过去 人们移居城市

not because they loved the city itself

不是因为热爱这个城市本身

but for the things you could have in a city,

而是因为城市所能提供的东西

more job opportunities,

更多的工作机会

easier access to services and goods

更丰富的商品以及服务

and a rich social life.

更多彩的社交生活

So let's dive deeper.

那让我们进一步来看看

More jobs and career opportunities.

更多的工作和就业机会

Is that still true today,

在当今还重要吗

because the office people are starting to realize

因为办公室一族开始意识到

that working in the office and being in the office

在办公室工作和呆在办公室

may not be the same thing anymore.

已经不再是同一个概念了

According to a study by Global Workplace Analytics,

全球工作数据分析的一项研究发现

more than 80 percent of the US workforce would like to work from home.

在美国有80%的在业者想在家工作

And do you know how much it costs for a company to even have an office?

你知道一个公司租用办公地有多贵吗?

11,000 dollars per employee per year.

平均每年每个员工11000美元

If only half of those workers

如果那些员工中的一半

would telework even 50 percent of the time,

能在一半的时间在家工作

the savings in the states would exceed 500 billion dollars,

美国的这些公司就能 省下超过5千亿美元

and it could reduce greenhouse gases by 54 million tons.

也能少制造5400万吨的温室气体

That is the equivalent

这相当于减少了

of 10 million cars off the streets for a whole year.

一千万台车一整年的排气量

But even though most people would want to telework,

但是即使大多数人想远程工作

current technology makes the experience isolating.

目前的科技只会让这种方式 显得很有隔绝感

It's not comfortable.

让人感觉不太舒服

It doesn't feel like being there.

不觉得是公司的一员

But that is going to change

但是这些都即将改变

by the convergence of two technologies:

因为我们可以实现两种科技的融合

augmented reality and telepresence robots.

增强现实和远程呈现机器人

Augmented reality already today

增强现实感技术在当今

allows you to take your office environment everywhere with you.

可以允许我们将办公室环境带在身边

All you need is a wearable computer, a pair of smart glasses,

只需一台便携电脑和一副智能眼睛

and you can take your emails and your spreadsheets

你就可以带着你的电邮和表格

with you wherever you go.

随便去哪都没问题

And video conferences and video calls have become very common these days,

视频会议和视频电话已经很常见

but they still need improvement.

但还有改进的空间

I mean, all those little faces on a flat screen,

看着平面显示器上的 一张张缩小的头像

sometimes you don't even know who is talking.

有时候都分不清是谁在讲话

Now, we already have something way better than static videocalls:

而现在 我们已经有比静态 视频电话更好的沟通方式了

your average telepresence robot.

就是远程呈现机器人

I call it tablet on a stick.

我喜欢称它为一根棍上的平板

(Laughter)

(笑声)

You can control, you can move around,

你可以进行操控 动来动去

you can control what you're looking at.

可以对要看的东西进行控制

It's way better, but far from perfect.

这种科技理想多了 但远不够完美

You know how they say

人们不是都说

that most human communication is nonverbal?

大多数的人际交流是非语言交流吗

Well, the robot doesn't give you any of that.

和这机器人交流正是如此

It looks like an alien.

它不正像个外星人嘛

But with advances in augmented reality,

但是因为有了先进的增强现实科技

it will be easy to wrap the robot in a nice hologram

我们可以轻易给机器人 穿上全息摄投影人像

that actually looks and moves like a person.

这样才能看着像人 动起来也像人

That will do it.

不错吧

Or else, forget the robot.

或者 压根儿不需要机器人

We go full VR,

我们可以用虚拟现实

and everybody meets in cyberspace.

大家都能直接在网络空间见面

Give it a couple of years and that will feel so real,

这个技术只需要再发展几年 就能非常成熟

you won't tell the difference.

根本看不出来是虚拟的

So what was the next reason why people move to cities?

那么人们搬到城市 还有其他什么原因吗

Access to services and goods.

是为了更多的服务和商品

But today you can do all that online.

但是当今这些都可以在网上实现

According to a study made by comScore,

根据comScore的数据统计

online shoppers in the US last year

在去年 美国人民超过一半的物品

did more than half of their retail purchases online,

都是在网上购买的

and the global market for e-commerce

据统计 全球电商市场

is estimated to be at two trillion dollars.

价值2万亿美元

And it's expected to reach 2.38 by the end of 2017,

而根据eMarketer提供的数据 预计在2017年底 这个数字

according to eMarketer.

会多达2.38万亿

Now, from a logistics standpoint,

从物流角度来说

density is good for deliveries.

搞人口密度对运送货物有好处

Supplying goods to a shopping mall is easy.

给一个购物中心送货很简单

You can send big shipments to the shop,

你可以向商店送一大批货物

and people will go there, pick it up and take it home themselves.

然后人们就会去商店 买上需要的东西带回家

E-commerce means we need to ship onesies

而网上购物意味着 我们需要把货物一件一件

and have them home delivered.

送到各家各户

That's more expensive.

这样费用更贵

It's like the difference between having a birthday party for 20 people

就像是开一个20个人的聚会

or bringing a piece of the cake

还是将一块块的蛋糕

to each of your 20 friends at their place.

给20个朋友分别送到家

But at least in the city,

起码在城市里

they live close to each other.

各家各户离得不远

Density helps.

住的紧凑是好事

Now, e-commerce deliveries in the countryside,

但电商也需要送货到郊区

those take forever.

花的时间就要多得多了

The truck sometimes needs to drive miles between one address and the next one.

送货卡车可能要在一个地址 和另一个地址间开上个几公里

Those are the most expensive deliveries of all.

这种送货是最贵的

But we already have a solution for that:

但是我们已经有解决方法了

drones.

使用无人机

A vehicle carrying a squadron of drones.

可以用一台车载上一队的无人机

The driver does some of the deliveries

在无人机飞来飞去的时候

司机可以运送其它货物

while the drones are flying back and forth from the truck as it moves.

That way, the average cost for delivery is reduced,

这样运送的成本就会降低

and voila:

看吧

affordable e-commerce services in the countryside.

乡郊区也能有价格合理的电商服务

You will see:

你会看到

the new homes of our teleworkers

很多远程工作的员工在新家的

will probably have a drone pod in the yard.

院子里都会装有无人机架

So once the final mile delivery is not a problem,

一旦我们让最后的运送变成可能

you don't need to be in the city to buy things anymore.

你就不用去市里买东西了

So that's two.

这是第二点

Now, what was the third reason why people move to cities?

人们搬家到城市的 第三个原因是什么来着

A rich social life.

丰富的社交生活

They would need to be in the city for that these days.

这年头谁还需要去 市里获取社交生活啊

Because people these days,

因为这年头

they make friends, they chat, gossip and flirt

人们不管是交朋友 聊天 八卦还是调情

from the comfort of their sofa.

都在自家沙发上完成

(Laughter)

(笑声)

And while wearing their favorite pajamas.

穿着最爱的睡衣

(Laughter)

(笑声)

There are over two billion active social media users in the world.

世界上大概有超过2百万的 活跃的社交网络用户

In a way, that makes you think like we are connected

某种程度来讲 这让你觉得 我们都是联系在一起的

no matter where we are.

不管身处何处

But OK, not completely.

好吧 也不完全是这样

Sometimes you still need some real human contact.

有时候你还是需要真正的人际交流

Ironically, the city, with its population density,

讽刺的是 城市人口虽然多

is not always the best for that.

却并不是一个人际交往的最佳地点

Actually, as social groups become smaller,

实际上 社交群体越小

they grow stronger.

联系却越紧密

A recent study made in the UK

英国国家统计局发起的

by the Office for National Statistics

最近的一项研究表明

showed a higher life satisfaction rating

生活在乡村地区的人口

among people living in rural areas.

有更高的生活满意度

So as people settle in the countryside,

人们在乡村安家后

well, they will buy local groceries,

会去本地杂货店购物

fresh groceries, foodstuff,

买新鲜的食品

maintenance services.

也会雇佣本地劳动力

So handymen, small workshops, service companies will thrive.

这样一来 本地的技工 小的作坊 和服务公司都会发展良好

Maybe some of the industrial workers from the cities

也许一些城市工业界的工人

displaced by the automation

被自动化生产线所取代之后

will find a nice alternative job here,

还能在乡村找到不错的工作

and they will move too.

然后就会决定搬家

And as people move to the countryside,

随着更多人搬到乡村居住

how is that going to be?

会发生什么样的变化呢

Think about autonomous,

想象这里生活的自主性

off-the-grid houses with solar panels,

不需要城市供电 只依赖太阳能

with wind turbines and waste recycling utilities,

风能 有更好的 废物循环系统的房子

our new homes producing their own energy and using it to also power the family car.

我们的新家能自给自足 还能给私家车提供电能

I mean, cities have always been regarded as being more energy-efficient,

一直以来人们都觉得 在城市生活可以更节能

but let me tell you,

但是我可以告诉大家

repopulating the countryside can be eco too.

重返乡村也能过上节能生活

By now, you're probably thinking of all the advantages of country living.

现在你们肯定已经在想象 乡村生活的美好了

(Laughter)

(笑声)

I did it myself.

我自己就搬了家

Six years ago, my wife and I, we packed our stuff,

6年前 我和妻子打包了行李

we sold our little apartment in Spain,

卖掉了我们在西班牙的家

and for the same money we bought a house with a garden

用那笔钱买了一个带花园的房子

and little birds that come singing in the morning.

还附带清晨来唱歌的小鸟

(Laughter)

(笑声)

It's so nice there.

真的太惬意了

And we live in a small village, not really the countryside yet.

我们住在一个小镇子里 也不完全算是乡村

That is going to be my next move:

我的下一步是

a refurbished farmhouse,

一个翻新的农家小院

not too far from a city, not too close.

离城市不是很远 也不要太近

And now we'll make sure to have a good spot for drones to land.

这次我们肯定会 选好无人机的降落点

(Laughter)

(笑声)

But hey, that's me.

但这只是我的做法

It doesn't have to be you,

你不一定要这样

because it would seem like I'm trying to convince somebody

看起来好像是我在说服你们

to come join us in the country.

跟我们一起搬到乡村

I'm not.

我可没有这个意思

(Laughter)

(笑声)

I don't need more people to come.

我可不想吸引那么多人过来

(Laughter)

(笑声)

I just think they will

我只是觉得人们会搬的

once they realize they can have the same benefits the city has.

只是需要意识到乡村也可以提供 城市能提供的好处

But if you don't like the country,

但是如果你不喜欢乡村

I have good news for you, too.

我也有新想法可以分享给你

Cities will not disappear.

城市并不会消失

But as people move out,

但是很多人会搬走

a lower density will help them recover a better flow and balance.

人口密度的减少会使剩余人口的生活 流动性更好 更加平衡

Anyway, I guess now you have some thinking to do.

总之 你们现在肯定开始有疑问了

Do you still think you need to live in the city?

你必须要住在城市吗

And more importantly,

更重要的是

do you want to?

你真的想吗

Thank you very much.

谢谢大家

(Applause)

掌声