Future tech will give you the benefits of city life anywhere | Julio Gil

94,159 views ・ 2017-10-16

TED


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Today, more than half of the world's population lives in cities.
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The urbanization process started in the late 1700s
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and has been increasing since then.
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The prediction is that by 2050,
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66 percent of the population will live in cities
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and the United Nations, the World Health Organization,
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the World Economic Forum, are warning us,
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if we don't plan for the increased density,
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current problems in our cities, like inequality, congestion, crime
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can only get worse.
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As a result, urban planners and city developers
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are putting a lot of effort and creativity
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in designing our future, denser, bigger cities.
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But I have a different opinion.
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I think urbanization is actually reaching the end of its cycle,
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and now people are going to start moving back to the countryside.
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And you may think, "But what about the trend?"
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Well, let me tell you,
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socioeconomic trends don't last forever.
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You know, 12,000 years ago
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everybody was perfectly happy
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roaming the land, hunting and gathering.
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And then, the trend changes,
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and the new thing is to live in a farm and have cattle,
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until it changes again.
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When we get to the industrial revolution.
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Actually, that is what started the urbanization process.
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And you know what triggered it?
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Steam power, machines,
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new chemical processes --
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in two words, technological innovation.
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And I believe technology can also bring the end of this cycle.
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I've been working on innovation for most of my career.
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I love it. I love my job.
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It allows me to work with drones, with 3D printers and smart glasses,
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and not just those you can buy in the shop but also prototypes.
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It's a lot of fun sometimes.
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Now, some of these technologies
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are opening new possibilities that will radically change
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the way we did things before
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and in a few years,
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they may allow us to enjoy the benefits of city life
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from anywhere.
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Think about it.
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If you could live in a place with a lower crime rate
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and more space
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and a lower cost of living
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and less traffic,
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of course many people would want that,
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but they feel they don't have a choice.
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You have to live in the city.
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Well, in the past, people moved to the cities
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not because they loved the city itself
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but for the things you could have in a city,
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more job opportunities,
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easier access to services and goods
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and a rich social life.
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So let's dive deeper.
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More jobs and career opportunities.
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Is that still true today,
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because the office people are starting to realize
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that working in the office and being in the office
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may not be the same thing anymore.
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According to a study by Global Workplace Analytics,
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more than 80 percent of the US workforce would like to work from home.
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And do you know how much it costs for a company to even have an office?
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11,000 dollars per employee per year.
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If only half of those workers
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would telework even 50 percent of the time,
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the savings in the states would exceed 500 billion dollars,
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and it could reduce greenhouse gases by 54 million tons.
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That is the equivalent
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of 10 million cars off the streets for a whole year.
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But even though most people would want to telework,
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current technology makes the experience isolating.
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It's not comfortable.
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It doesn't feel like being there.
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But that is going to change
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by the convergence of two technologies:
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augmented reality and telepresence robots.
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Augmented reality already today
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allows you to take your office environment everywhere with you.
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All you need is a wearable computer, a pair of smart glasses,
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and you can take your emails and your spreadsheets
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with you wherever you go.
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And video conferences and video calls have become very common these days,
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but they still need improvement.
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I mean, all those little faces on a flat screen,
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sometimes you don't even know who is talking.
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Now, we already have something way better than static videocalls:
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your average telepresence robot.
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I call it tablet on a stick.
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(Laughter)
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You can control, you can move around,
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you can control what you're looking at.
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It's way better, but far from perfect.
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You know how they say
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that most human communication is nonverbal?
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Well, the robot doesn't give you any of that.
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It looks like an alien.
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But with advances in augmented reality,
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it will be easy to wrap the robot in a nice hologram
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that actually looks and moves like a person.
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That will do it.
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Or else, forget the robot.
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We go full VR,
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and everybody meets in cyberspace.
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Give it a couple of years and that will feel so real,
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you won't tell the difference.
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So what was the next reason why people move to cities?
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Access to services and goods.
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But today you can do all that online.
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According to a study made by comScore,
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online shoppers in the US last year
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did more than half of their retail purchases online,
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and the global market for e-commerce
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is estimated to be at two trillion dollars.
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And it's expected to reach 2.38 by the end of 2017,
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according to eMarketer.
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Now, from a logistics standpoint,
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density is good for deliveries.
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Supplying goods to a shopping mall is easy.
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You can send big shipments to the shop,
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and people will go there, pick it up and take it home themselves.
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E-commerce means we need to ship onesies
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and have them home delivered.
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That's more expensive.
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It's like the difference between having a birthday party for 20 people
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or bringing a piece of the cake
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to each of your 20 friends at their place.
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But at least in the city,
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they live close to each other.
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Density helps.
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Now, e-commerce deliveries in the countryside,
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those take forever.
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The truck sometimes needs to drive miles between one address and the next one.
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Those are the most expensive deliveries of all.
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But we already have a solution for that:
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drones.
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A vehicle carrying a squadron of drones.
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The driver does some of the deliveries
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while the drones are flying back and forth from the truck as it moves.
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That way, the average cost for delivery is reduced,
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and voila:
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affordable e-commerce services in the countryside.
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You will see:
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the new homes of our teleworkers
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will probably have a drone pod in the yard.
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So once the final mile delivery is not a problem,
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you don't need to be in the city to buy things anymore.
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So that's two.
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Now, what was the third reason why people move to cities?
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A rich social life.
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They would need to be in the city for that these days.
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Because people these days,
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they make friends, they chat, gossip and flirt
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from the comfort of their sofa.
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(Laughter)
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And while wearing their favorite pajamas.
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(Laughter)
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There are over two billion active social media users in the world.
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In a way, that makes you think like we are connected
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no matter where we are.
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But OK, not completely.
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Sometimes you still need some real human contact.
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Ironically, the city, with its population density,
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is not always the best for that.
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Actually, as social groups become smaller,
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they grow stronger.
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A recent study made in the UK
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by the Office for National Statistics
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showed a higher life satisfaction rating
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among people living in rural areas.
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So as people settle in the countryside,
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well, they will buy local groceries,
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fresh groceries, foodstuff,
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maintenance services.
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So handymen, small workshops, service companies will thrive.
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Maybe some of the industrial workers from the cities
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displaced by the automation
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will find a nice alternative job here,
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and they will move too.
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And as people move to the countryside,
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how is that going to be?
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Think about autonomous,
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off-the-grid houses with solar panels,
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with wind turbines and waste recycling utilities,
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our new homes producing their own energy and using it to also power the family car.
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I mean, cities have always been regarded as being more energy-efficient,
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but let me tell you,
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repopulating the countryside can be eco too.
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By now, you're probably thinking of all the advantages of country living.
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(Laughter)
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I did it myself.
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Six years ago, my wife and I, we packed our stuff,
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we sold our little apartment in Spain,
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and for the same money we bought a house with a garden
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and little birds that come singing in the morning.
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(Laughter)
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It's so nice there.
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And we live in a small village, not really the countryside yet.
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That is going to be my next move:
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a refurbished farmhouse,
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not too far from a city, not too close.
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And now we'll make sure to have a good spot for drones to land.
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(Laughter)
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But hey, that's me.
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It doesn't have to be you,
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because it would seem like I'm trying to convince somebody
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to come join us in the country.
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I'm not.
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(Laughter)
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I don't need more people to come.
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(Laughter)
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I just think they will
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once they realize they can have the same benefits the city has.
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But if you don't like the country,
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I have good news for you, too.
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Cities will not disappear.
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But as people move out,
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a lower density will help them recover a better flow and balance.
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Anyway, I guess now you have some thinking to do.
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Do you still think you need to live in the city?
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And more importantly,
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do you want to?
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Thank you very much.
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(Applause)
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