Future tech will give you the benefits of city life anywhere | Julio Gil

Prevoditelj: Ivana Varga Recezent: Sanda L

Today, more than half of the world's population lives in cities.

Danas više od polovine svjetske populacije živi u gradovima.

The urbanization process started in the late 1700s

Proces urbanizacije počeo je krajem 18. stoljeća

and has been increasing since then.

i otada je u porastu.

The prediction is that by 2050,

Predviđa se da će do 2050. godine

66 percent of the population will live in cities

66% stanovništva živjeti u gradovima.

and the United Nations, the World Health Organization,

UN, Svjetska zdravstvena organizacija i

the World Economic Forum, are warning us,

Svjetski ekonomski forum upozoravaju nas,

if we don't plan for the increased density,

nećemo li imati plan za povećanu gustoću naseljenosti,

current problems in our cities, like inequality, congestion, crime

trenutačni problemi u našim gradovima, poput nejednakosti, zakrčenosti, zločina,

can only get worse.

postat će samo gori.

As a result, urban planners and city developers

Stoga urbanistički planeri i graditelji

are putting a lot of effort and creativity

ulažu mnogo truda i kreativnosti

in designing our future, denser, bigger cities.

u dizajniranje naših budućih, gušćih, većih gradova.

But I have a different opinion.

Međutim, ja imam drukčije mišljenje.

I think urbanization is actually reaching the end of its cycle,

Smatram da je urbanizacija zapravo dosegla kraj svog ciklusa

and now people are going to start moving back to the countryside.

i ljudi će se sada početi vraćati selu.

And you may think, "But what about the trend?"

Mogli biste pomisliti: "Ali što je s trendom?"

Well, let me tell you,

Dakle, dozvolite mi da vam kažem

socioeconomic trends don't last forever.

socioekonomski trendovi ne traju dovijeka.

You know, 12,000 years ago

Znate, prije 12.000 godina,

everybody was perfectly happy

svi su bili savršeno sretni

roaming the land, hunting and gathering.

tumaranjem po zemlji, lovom i sakupljanjem.

And then, the trend changes,

Zatim, trend se promijenio

and the new thing is to live in a farm and have cattle,

i onda je hit postao živjeti na farmi i držati stoku.

until it changes again.

Dok se i to nije promijenilo iznova,

When we get to the industrial revolution.

kada dolazimo do industrijske revolucije.

Actually, that is what started the urbanization process.

Zapravo, to je ono što je započelo proces urbanizacije.

And you know what triggered it?

Znate li što ga je pokrenulo?

Steam power, machines,

Parna snaga, strojevi

new chemical processes --

i novi kemijski procesi.

in two words, technological innovation.

Dvjema riječima: tehnološka inovacija.

And I believe technology can also bring the end of this cycle.

Vjerujem da tehnologija može isto tako ovaj ciklus dovesti do svog kraja.

I've been working on innovation for most of my career.

Radim na inovaciji većinu svoje karijere.

I love it. I love my job.

Obožavam to i obožavam svoj posao.

It allows me to work with drones, with 3D printers and smart glasses,

Dozvoljava mi da radim s dronovima, 3D pisačima i pametnim naočalama.

and not just those you can buy in the shop but also prototypes.

I to ne samo onim koje možete kupiti u trgovinama već i s prototipovima.

It's a lot of fun sometimes.

Zaista je jako zabavno ponekad.

Now, some of these technologies

Neke od ovih tehnologija

are opening new possibilities that will radically change

stvaraju nove mogućnosti koje će radikalno promijeniti

the way we did things before

načine na koji smo obavljali stvari

and in a few years,

i za nekoliko godina,

they may allow us to enjoy the benefits of city life

mogle bi nam omogućiti da uživamo u pogodnostima gradskog života

from anywhere.

bilo gdje.

Think about it.

Razmislite o tome.

If you could live in a place with a lower crime rate

Ako biste mogli živjeti u mjestu koje ima malu stopu zločina,

and more space

a više prostora,

and a lower cost of living

nižim troškovima života

and less traffic,

i manje prometa,

of course many people would want that,

naravno da bi većina htjela upravo to.

but they feel they don't have a choice.

Međutim, oni smatraju da nemaju izbora

You have to live in the city.

i da moraju živjeti u gradu.

Well, in the past, people moved to the cities

U prošlosti su ljudi selili u gradove,

not because they loved the city itself

ne zato što su voljeli taj grad,

but for the things you could have in a city,

već radi stvari koje je grad omogućavao.

more job opportunities,

Veće mogućnosti zaposlenja,

easier access to services and goods

lakši pristup uslugama i proizvodima

and a rich social life.

te bogatiji društveni život.

So let's dive deeper.

Promotrimo to izbliza.

More jobs and career opportunities.

Više mogućnosti za zaposlenje i stvaranje karijere.

Is that still true today,

Je li to još uvijek stoji i danas?

because the office people are starting to realize

Naime, ljudi po uredima počinju shvaćati

that working in the office and being in the office

da raditi i biti u uredu

may not be the same thing anymore.

ne mora više biti ista stvar.

According to a study by Global Workplace Analytics,

Prema studiji Global Workplace Analyticsa,

more than 80 percent of the US workforce would like to work from home.

više od 80% radne snage SAD-a voljelo bi raditi od kuće.

And do you know how much it costs for a company to even have an office?

A znate li koliko uopće košta tvrtke da imaju uredski prostor?

11,000 dollars per employee per year.

11.000 dolara po zaposleniku po godini.

If only half of those workers

Kada bi samo pola tih zaposlenika

would telework even 50 percent of the time,

radilo od kuće tek pola radnog vremena,

the savings in the states would exceed 500 billion dollars,

ušteda bi u državama premašila 500 milijardi dolara,

and it could reduce greenhouse gases by 54 million tons.

što bi moglo smanjiti stakleničke plinove za 54 milijuna tona.

That is the equivalent

To je ekvivalent

of 10 million cars off the streets for a whole year.

10 milijuna auta manje na cestama za cijelu godinu.

But even though most people would want to telework,

Unatoč činjenici da bi ljudi više voljeli raditi od kuće,

current technology makes the experience isolating.

trenutna tehnologija čini to iskustvo osamljujućim.

It's not comfortable.

Nije udobno

It doesn't feel like being there.

i ne daje osjećaj pripadanja.

But that is going to change

Međutim, to će se promijeniti

by the convergence of two technologies:

približavanjem dviju tehnologija:

augmented reality and telepresence robots.

Proširenom stvarnošću i teleprisutnim robotima.

Augmented reality already today

Proširena stvarnost već danas omogućuje

allows you to take your office environment everywhere with you.

uredsko okruženje gdje god se nalazili.

All you need is a wearable computer, a pair of smart glasses,

Sve što vam treba su prijenosno računalo i pametne naočale

and you can take your emails and your spreadsheets

pa možete imati svoju e-poštu i radne dokumente

with you wherever you go.

gdje god išli.

And video conferences and video calls have become very common these days,

A video sastanci i pozivi postali su vrlo učestali u današnje doba,

but they still need improvement.

no, još uvijek su im potrebna poboljšanja.

I mean, all those little faces on a flat screen,

Hoću reći, sva ona mala lica na ekranu,

sometimes you don't even know who is talking.

ponekad ne znate ni tko vam govori.

Now, we already have something way better than static videocalls:

Naravno, već postoji nešto puno bolje od statičnih video poziva:

your average telepresence robot.

vaš prosječni teleprisutni robot.

I call it tablet on a stick.

Zovem ga tabletom na štapu.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

You can control, you can move around,

Imate kontrolu nad njim,

you can control what you're looking at.

nad tim kuda ide i što vidi.

It's way better, but far from perfect.

Napredak je, ali daleko od savršenstva.

You know how they say

Znate li kako govore

that most human communication is nonverbal?

da je ljudska komunikacija uglavnom neverbalna?

Well, the robot doesn't give you any of that.

Pa, nećete je dobiti od robota.

It looks like an alien.

Izgleda poput vanzemaljca.

But with advances in augmented reality,

Ali uz napretke u proširenoj stvarnosti,

it will be easy to wrap the robot in a nice hologram

bit će jednostavno omotati robota u lijepi hologram,

that actually looks and moves like a person.

tako da uistinu nalikuje pravoj osobi.

That will do it.

To bi bilo dovoljno.

Or else, forget the robot.

Ili... zaboravite na robota.

We go full VR,

Prijeđimo potpuno na virtualnu stvarnost,

and everybody meets in cyberspace.

svi se susreću u virtualnom svijetu.

Give it a couple of years and that will feel so real,

Za par godina ćete nju doživljavati toliko stvarno,

you won't tell the difference.

da nećete ni znati razliku.

So what was the next reason why people move to cities?

Dakle, što je bio sljedeći razlog zašto će ljudi seliti u gradove?

Access to services and goods.

Pristupačnost usluga i robe.

But today you can do all that online.

Ali, danas im možete pristupiti i elektronski.

According to a study made by comScore,

Po studiji koju je proveo comScore,

online shoppers in the US last year

e-kupci u SAD-u su za prošlu godinu

did more than half of their retail purchases online,

više od pola svoje kupnje obavili elektronski.

and the global market for e-commerce

A svjetsko tržište za e-trgovinu

is estimated to be at two trillion dollars.

procjenjuje se na dva bilijuna dolara.

And it's expected to reach 2.38 by the end of 2017,

e-Marketer procjenjuje da će doseći 2,38 bilijuna dolara

according to eMarketer.

do kraja 2017.

Now, from a logistics standpoint,

Sa stajališta logistike,

density is good for deliveries.

gustoća je dobra za dostave.

Supplying goods to a shopping mall is easy.

Dostava robe trgovačkim centrima je laka.

You can send big shipments to the shop,

Možete slati velike pošiljke trgovinama,

and people will go there, pick it up and take it home themselves.

a ljudi će doći, kupiti i ponijeti kući.

E-commerce means we need to ship onesies

E-trgovina znači da šaljete i dostavljate

and have them home delivered.

po jedan primjerak robe,

That's more expensive.

a to je mnogo skuplje.

It's like the difference between having a birthday party for 20 people

To je kao da organizirate rođendansku zabavu za 20 ljudi

or bringing a piece of the cake

ili da donosite po komad torte

to each of your 20 friends at their place.

svakom od 20 prijatelja u njihov dom.

But at least in the city,

Ali, u gradu barem

they live close to each other.

žive međusobno blizu.

Density helps.

Gustoća pomaže.

Now, e-commerce deliveries in the countryside,

Što se tiče dostave narudžbe s e-trgovine na selo,

those take forever.

njima treba vječnost da stignu.

The truck sometimes needs to drive miles between one address and the next one.

Dostavljači ponekad voze kilometrima da bi došli od jedne adrese do druge.

Those are the most expensive deliveries of all.

Takve dostave su najskuplje od svih.

But we already have a solution for that:

Međutim, već postoji rješenje za to:

drones.

dronovi.

A vehicle carrying a squadron of drones.

Vozilo koje prenosi eskadru dronova.

The driver does some of the deliveries

Vozač obavlja neke dostave,

a dronovi lete od i prema kamionu koji je u pokretu.

while the drones are flying back and forth from the truck as it moves.

That way, the average cost for delivery is reduced,

Na taj način su srezani prosječni troškovi dostave

and voila:

i voila:

affordable e-commerce services in the countryside.

pristupačne usluge e-trgovine na selu.

You will see:

Vidjet ćete,

the new homes of our teleworkers

budući domovi onih koji rade od kuće

will probably have a drone pod in the yard.

vjerojatno će u dvorištu imati pristanište za dronove.

So once the final mile delivery is not a problem,

Budući da daleke dostave neće više biti problematične,

you don't need to be in the city to buy things anymore.

neće biti potrebno živjeti u gradu da biste mogli kupovati stvari.

So that's two.

Dakle, to su dva.

Now, what was the third reason why people move to cities?

A što je bio treći razlog selidbe u grad?

A rich social life.

Bogat društveni život.

They would need to be in the city for that these days.

Biste li morali biti u gradu za to?

Because people these days,

Jer ljudi danas

they make friends, they chat, gossip and flirt

stječu prijatelje, čavrljaju, ogovaraju i flertuju

from the comfort of their sofa.

iz udobnosti svojih fotelja.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

And while wearing their favorite pajamas.

I sve to dok nose svoju omiljenu pidžamu.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

There are over two billion active social media users in the world.

U svijetu ima više od dvije milijarde aktivnih korisnika društvenih mreža.

In a way, that makes you think like we are connected

Na neki način, to nas navodi na shvaćanje da smo povezani

no matter where we are.

gdje god bili.

But OK, not completely.

Dobro, ne baš sasvim.

Sometimes you still need some real human contact.

Ponekad vam je još uvijek potreban pravi ljudski kontakt.

Ironically, the city, with its population density,

Ironično je da grad, svojom gustoćom stanovnika,

is not always the best for that.

nije uvijek idealan za to.

Actually, as social groups become smaller,

Zapravo, što društvene grupe postaju manje,

they grow stronger.

to budu snažnije.

A recent study made in the UK

Nedavna studija u UK-u

by the Office for National Statistics

Državnog zavoda za statistiku

showed a higher life satisfaction rating

pokazala je višu stopu zadovoljstva životom

among people living in rural areas.

među ljudima na selu.

So as people settle in the countryside,

Dakle, kako se ljudi budu nastanjivali u selima,

well, they will buy local groceries,

to će kupovati lokalne namirnice,

fresh groceries, foodstuff,

svježe namirnice, općenito hranu

maintenance services.

i tražiti usluge održavanja lokalno.

So handymen, small workshops, service companies will thrive.

Tako će majstori, mali obrti i usluge razvijati poslovanje.

Maybe some of the industrial workers from the cities

Možda će neki industrijski radnici iz grada,

displaced by the automation

zamijenjeni automatizacijom,

will find a nice alternative job here,

naći neki dobar drukčiji posao na selu

and they will move too.

pa će i oni preseliti tamo.

And as people move to the countryside,

A kako će to izgledati

how is that going to be?

kad ljudi počnu seliti na selo?

Think about autonomous,

Razmišljajte o samoodrživim,

off-the-grid houses with solar panels,

neovisnim kućama sa solarnim panelima

with wind turbines and waste recycling utilities,

te vjetrenjačama i službama za recikliranje otpada.

our new homes producing their own energy and using it to also power the family car.

Naši budući domovi proizvodit će vlastitu struju i njome pokretati obiteljski auto.

I mean, cities have always been regarded as being more energy-efficient,

Hoću reći, gradovi su se uvijek smatrali energetski učinkovitijim,

but let me tell you,

ali, vjerujte mi,

repopulating the countryside can be eco too.

ponovno naseljavanje sela također može biti ekološko.

By now, you're probably thinking of all the advantages of country living.

Do sada ste vjerojatno razmotrili sve pogodnosti života na selu.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

I did it myself.

I ja sam.

Six years ago, my wife and I, we packed our stuff,

Prije šest godina žena i ja smo spakirali stvari,

we sold our little apartment in Spain,

prodali naš stančić u Španjolskoj

and for the same money we bought a house with a garden

i tim novcem kupili kuću s vrtom

and little birds that come singing in the morning.

i ptičicama koje dolaze ujutro pjevati.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

It's so nice there.

Tako je lijepo.

And we live in a small village, not really the countryside yet.

Živimo u seocetu, ne baš u osamljenoj prirodi.

That is going to be my next move:

To mi je sljedeće u planu,

a refurbished farmhouse,

preuređena seoska kuća.

not too far from a city, not too close.

Niti predaleko, niti preblizu gradu.

And now we'll make sure to have a good spot for drones to land.

Morat ćemo paziti da imamo dobro mjesto za dronove da mogu sletjeti.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

But hey, that's me.

Ali, to je moj izbor.

It doesn't have to be you,

Ne mora biti i vaš,

because it would seem like I'm trying to convince somebody

jer bi moglo zvučati kao da uvjeravam nekoga

to come join us in the country.

da nam se pridruži.

I'm not.

Stvarno ne želim.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

I don't need more people to come.

Ne treba mi još ljudi.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

I just think they will

Jednostavno mislim da će sami doći

once they realize they can have the same benefits the city has.

kad shvate da mogu imati iste pogodnosti kao i u gradu.

But if you don't like the country,

Ako niste seoski tip,

I have good news for you, too.

imam dobre vijesti i za vas.

Cities will not disappear.

Gradovi neće nestati.

But as people move out,

Kad iseljavanje počne,

a lower density will help them recover a better flow and balance.

smanjena gustoća pomoći će pronalasku boljeg protoka i balansa.

Anyway, I guess now you have some thinking to do.

Dobro, pretpostavljam da sada imate o čemu razmišljati.

Do you still think you need to live in the city?

Mislite li i dalje da morate živjeti u gradu?

And more importantly,

I, još važnije,

do you want to?

želite li?

Thank you very much.

Hvala na pozornosti.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)