Future tech will give you the benefits of city life anywhere | Julio Gil
94,141 views ・ 2017-10-16
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譯者:
審譯者: Helen Chang
00:12
Today, more than half
of the world's population lives in cities.
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如今,世界上超過一半的
人口住在城市裡。
00:17
The urbanization process
started in the late 1700s
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城市化的發展
始於 1700 年代末期,
00:21
and has been increasing since then.
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並持續增加至今。
00:24
The prediction is that by 2050,
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根據預測,到 2050 年時,
00:27
66 percent of the population
will live in cities
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將會有 66% 的人口住在城市裡,
00:30
and the United Nations,
the World Health Organization,
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聯合國屬下的世界衛生組織,
00:33
the World Economic Forum, are warning us,
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和世界經濟論壇,警告我們,
00:37
if we don't plan
for the increased density,
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如果我們不計劃因應
增加的人口密度,
00:39
current problems in our cities,
like inequality, congestion, crime
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像不平等、人口擁擠、犯罪等
城市目前面臨的問題,
00:45
can only get worse.
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只會變得更糟糕。
00:46
As a result, urban planners
and city developers
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所以,規劃和發展城市的人
00:49
are putting a lot of effort and creativity
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砸下大把功夫和創新
00:52
in designing our future,
denser, bigger cities.
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來設計我們未來人口更密集、
規模更大的城市。
00:57
But I have a different opinion.
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可是我有不同的觀點。
00:59
I think urbanization is actually
reaching the end of its cycle,
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我認為城市化實際上
已經達到它循環週期的盡頭了,
01:03
and now people are going to start
moving back to the countryside.
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如今人們開始住回鄉村。
01:07
And you may think,
"But what about the trend?"
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你或許納悶:「關於那趨勢呢?」
01:10
Well, let me tell you,
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好,讓我來告訴你,
01:12
socioeconomic trends don't last forever.
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社會經濟趨勢並不永續。
01:16
You know, 12,000 years ago
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要知道,在一萬兩千年前,
01:17
everybody was perfectly happy
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每個人都開心地
01:20
roaming the land, hunting and gathering.
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在土地上漫遊、打獵和聚居。
01:23
And then, the trend changes,
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然後趨勢變了,
01:26
and the new thing
is to live in a farm and have cattle,
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農牧業開始發展,
01:30
until it changes again.
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直到趨勢再度改變,
01:31
When we get to the industrial revolution.
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我們到來工業革命。
01:35
Actually, that is what started
the urbanization process.
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實際上,那是城市化發展的起始。
01:38
And you know what triggered it?
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你知道是什麼觸發的嗎?
01:41
Steam power, machines,
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是蒸汽動力、機械、
01:44
new chemical processes --
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新的化學加工,
01:46
in two words, technological innovation.
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總結成兩個字,就是科技創新。
01:51
And I believe technology
can also bring the end of this cycle.
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我也相信科技也會終止這個循環。
01:55
I've been working on innovation
for most of my career.
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我的大半職涯一直在創新。
01:58
I love it. I love my job.
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我愛創新,我愛我的職業,
02:00
It allows me to work with drones,
with 3D printers and smart glasses,
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我的工作用到無人機、
3D 列印機,和智能眼鏡,
02:04
and not just those you can buy in the shop
but also prototypes.
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不只是商場裡買得到的成品,
還包括樣板原型。
02:08
It's a lot of fun sometimes.
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有時候非常的有趣。
02:11
Now, some of these technologies
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其中的一些科技
02:13
are opening new possibilities
that will radically change
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正在開創新的遠景,
02:16
the way we did things before
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我們做事的方式將會在
02:18
and in a few years,
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短短幾年內從本質上產生巨變,
02:20
they may allow us
to enjoy the benefits of city life
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使我們得以享受城市生活的好處,
02:24
from anywhere.
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不論身在何處。
02:26
Think about it.
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思考一下!
02:27
If you could live in a place
with a lower crime rate
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如果你能住在犯罪率低、
02:31
and more space
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空間大、
02:32
and a lower cost of living
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消費低、
02:34
and less traffic,
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交通不擁擠的地方;
02:36
of course many people would want that,
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那當然是許多人的盼望,
02:38
but they feel they don't have a choice.
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但他們未必有這樣的選項,
02:41
You have to live in the city.
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只好住在城市裡。
02:44
Well, in the past,
people moved to the cities
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好,過去人們移居城市
02:47
not because they loved the city itself
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不是因為他們喜歡城市本身,
02:50
but for the things
you could have in a city,
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而是為了在城市裡能得到的東西:
02:52
more job opportunities,
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更多就業機會、
02:54
easier access to services and goods
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更容易獲得服務設施、
02:56
and a rich social life.
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以及更豐富的社交生活。
02:58
So let's dive deeper.
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讓我們進一步探討。
03:01
More jobs and career opportunities.
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城市裡有更多的就業和陞遷機會
03:04
Is that still true today,
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今天仍然是事實,
03:06
because the office people
are starting to realize
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因為那些白領階級開始意識到
03:09
that working in the office
and being in the office
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在公司裡工作和「待」在公司裡
03:13
may not be the same thing anymore.
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不盡然是同一回事了。
03:16
According to a study
by Global Workplace Analytics,
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根據全球就業分析的研究,
03:19
more than 80 percent of the US workforce
would like to work from home.
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超過 80% 的美國勞動者
願意在家工作。
03:24
And do you know how much it costs
for a company to even have an office?
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你可知道公司設立一間辦公室
得要花多少錢嗎?
03:29
11,000 dollars per employee per year.
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每個員工一年要花 11,000 美元。
03:33
If only half of those workers
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如果半數的員工
03:36
would telework
even 50 percent of the time,
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有一半的時間遠距工作,
03:39
the savings in the states
would exceed 500 billion dollars,
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可為美國省下超過五百億美元,
03:44
and it could reduce greenhouse gases
by 54 million tons.
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還可減少 5400 萬噸的
溫室氣體排放,
03:49
That is the equivalent
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這就相當於
03:50
of 10 million cars
off the streets for a whole year.
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街道上一年少了
一千萬汽車的排放量。
03:56
But even though most people
would want to telework,
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但即使大多數人想遠距辦公,
03:59
current technology
makes the experience isolating.
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當前的科技讓人感到與世隔離,
04:02
It's not comfortable.
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讓人感到不舒服,
04:04
It doesn't feel like being there.
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和在辦公室裡的感覺不一樣。
04:06
But that is going to change
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但這會因融入兩種
新興的科技而改變:
04:09
by the convergence of two technologies:
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04:11
augmented reality and telepresence robots.
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擴增實境科技,和遠端臨場機器人。
04:15
Augmented reality already today
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如今的擴增實境科技
04:17
allows you to take your office
environment everywhere with you.
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能讓你把辦公室的氛圍
帶到每個地點,
04:20
All you need is a wearable computer,
a pair of smart glasses,
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只需要一台電腦和一副智能眼鏡,
04:24
and you can take your emails
and your spreadsheets
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你就可以帶著郵件和電子圖表
04:26
with you wherever you go.
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到處走了。
04:29
And video conferences and video calls
have become very common these days,
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如今視訊會議和通話變得十分普遍,
04:33
but they still need improvement.
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但仍有改進的空間。
04:36
I mean, all those little faces
on a flat screen,
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我的意思是,那些顯示在
平面螢幕上的小小臉孔,
04:39
sometimes you don't
even know who is talking.
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有時候你根本不知道到底誰在講話。
04:42
Now, we already have something
way better than static videocalls:
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現在我們已有比
靜態視訊通話更好的東西:
04:47
your average telepresence robot.
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遠端臨場機器人。
04:49
I call it tablet on a stick.
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我稱它為桿子上的平板電腦。
04:52
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
04:54
You can control, you can move around,
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你可以控制它、隨意移動它,
04:56
you can control what you're looking at.
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可以控制你的視線範圍。
04:59
It's way better, but far from perfect.
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這是改進了的產品,
但是離完美還遠得很。
05:02
You know how they say
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你們知道常言道
05:04
that most human
communication is nonverbal?
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多數人以無聲交流吧?
05:07
Well, the robot doesn't
give you any of that.
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但機器人可不會無聲交流,
05:10
It looks like an alien.
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它看上去就像是個外星人。
05:14
But with advances in augmented reality,
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但是透過擴增實境,
05:16
it will be easy to wrap the robot
in a nice hologram
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可以很輕易地把機器人
用個好的全息投影包裝起來,
05:20
that actually looks
and moves like a person.
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使它看起來像人,動起來像人,
05:24
That will do it.
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那就夠了。
05:26
Or else, forget the robot.
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或者這樣,別管機器人,
05:28
We go full VR,
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我們用全副的虛擬實境,
05:30
and everybody meets in cyberspace.
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每個人都在網路世界裡相遇。
05:33
Give it a couple of years
and that will feel so real,
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再過幾年的時間,
就會逼真到讓你辨不出
它和現實世界有任何差別。
05:36
you won't tell the difference.
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05:39
So what was the next reason
why people move to cities?
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大家遷徙到城市居住的
另一個原因是什麼呢?
05:42
Access to services and goods.
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為要能夠得到更多的服務和物品,
05:45
But today you can do all that online.
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但是現在你都可以在網上解決。
05:48
According to a study made by comScore,
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根據網站數據測量公司
comScore 的一份研究,
05:52
online shoppers in the US last year
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去年美國的網購者
05:54
did more than half
of their retail purchases online,
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在網上採購過半的零售品,
05:59
and the global market for e-commerce
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全球市場的網上貿易額
06:02
is estimated to be
at two trillion dollars.
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估計將達到兩兆美元。
06:06
And it's expected to reach 2.38
by the end of 2017,
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預期在 2017 年底
可望達到 2.38 兆美元,
06:11
according to eMarketer.
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資料來自市場研究機構
eMarketer。
06:14
Now, from a logistics standpoint,
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從物流的立場來看,
06:17
density is good for deliveries.
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密度有利於送貨。
06:20
Supplying goods
to a shopping mall is easy.
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把貨物供應給商場很簡單,
06:23
You can send big shipments to the shop,
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把一大批的貨物寄到商店,
06:26
and people will go there, pick it up
and take it home themselves.
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然後顧客上門提貨自己帶回家。
06:29
E-commerce means we need to ship onesies
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網路貿易代表單件商品
06:32
and have them home delivered.
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必須被直接寄到顧客的家中,
06:33
That's more expensive.
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運費貴得多了。
06:35
It's like the difference between
having a birthday party for 20 people
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就好比是邀請二十個人
來參加生日派對,
06:38
or bringing a piece of the cake
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或是將每塊生日蛋糕
06:41
to each of your 20 friends at their place.
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分別送到二十個人的家中。
06:45
But at least in the city,
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但至少在城市裡,
06:47
they live close to each other.
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人們住得相對近,
06:48
Density helps.
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人口密度是有利的。
06:50
Now, e-commerce deliveries
in the countryside,
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而網購郵寄包裹到鄉下
06:54
those take forever.
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需要很長的時間才能到貨。
06:57
The truck sometimes needs to drive miles
between one address and the next one.
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有時候卡車得要
開長距離到下一個地址,
07:01
Those are the most expensive
deliveries of all.
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那是所有遞送中最貴的了。
07:06
But we already have a solution for that:
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但是我們已經有解決方案了:
07:09
drones.
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無人機。
07:10
A vehicle carrying a squadron of drones.
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一輛車載著一隊的無人機。
07:14
The driver does some of the deliveries
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司機只需要遞送一部分,
07:16
while the drones are flying
back and forth from the truck as it moves.
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而在卡車遞送的過程中,
由無人機來回送貨。
07:19
That way, the average cost
for delivery is reduced,
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這樣一來,減少了平均的遞送花費,
07:22
and voila:
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瞧:
07:24
affordable e-commerce services
in the countryside.
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鄉村也可以有實惠的網路貿易服務。
07:28
You will see:
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你會看到:
07:30
the new homes of our teleworkers
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在遠距辦公者住家的院子裡
07:31
will probably have
a drone pod in the yard.
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可能就會裝置著無人機的卡座。
07:35
So once the final mile delivery
is not a problem,
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一旦最後一里路的遞送不再是問題,
07:38
you don't need to be in the city
to buy things anymore.
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你就不需要在城市裡買東西了。
07:41
So that's two.
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那是第二個理由。
07:43
Now, what was the third reason
why people move to cities?
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人們移居到城市的
第三個原因是什麼?
07:46
A rich social life.
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是豐富的社交生活。
07:48
They would need to be
in the city for that these days.
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如今,豐富的社交生活
得要待在城市裡。
07:51
Because people these days,
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現在的人交友、
07:53
they make friends,
they chat, gossip and flirt
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交流、八卦和調情,
07:56
from the comfort of their sofa.
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都能窩在自家的沙發裡做,
07:58
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
07:59
And while wearing their favorite pajamas.
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身上穿著自己喜歡的睡衣。
08:02
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
08:03
There are over two billion
active social media users in the world.
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現在全世界有二十億
活躍的社交媒體用戶。
08:08
In a way, that makes you think
like we are connected
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從某種方面來看,我們互相聯繫著,
08:11
no matter where we are.
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不管我們身在那裡。
08:12
But OK, not completely.
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但好吧,不盡然如此。
08:15
Sometimes you still need
some real human contact.
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有時候還是需要一些
真正人與人之間的交流的。
08:19
Ironically, the city,
with its population density,
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諷刺的是,雖然城市有高人口密度,
08:23
is not always the best for that.
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但卻不總是適合交友的地方。
08:26
Actually, as social groups become smaller,
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事實上,社交圈越小就越牢固。
08:29
they grow stronger.
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08:31
A recent study made in the UK
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英國國家數據庫的近期研究
08:33
by the Office for National Statistics
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08:35
showed a higher life satisfaction rating
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顯示居住在農村的人
08:38
among people living in rural areas.
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有更高的生活幸福指數。
08:41
So as people settle in the countryside,
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人們定居於鄉村,
08:45
well, they will buy local groceries,
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他們買當地的雜貨、
08:48
fresh groceries, foodstuff,
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新鮮的雜貨、食物,和維修服務。
08:49
maintenance services.
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08:52
So handymen, small workshops,
service companies will thrive.
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使水電工、小商鋪和服務公司興旺。
08:57
Maybe some of the industrial
workers from the cities
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可能有些城市工人
09:00
displaced by the automation
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被自動化取代而失了業,
09:02
will find a nice alternative job here,
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會在鄉村找到更好的
替代工作而遷居。
09:04
and they will move too.
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09:07
And as people move to the countryside,
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當人們移居鄉間會怎樣呢?
09:09
how is that going to be?
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09:11
Think about autonomous,
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試想獨立自主的生活:
09:14
off-the-grid houses with solar panels,
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房子裝有自給自足的太陽能板,
09:16
with wind turbines
and waste recycling utilities,
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有風力發電機、
垃圾廢水回收再利用的設備,
09:20
our new homes producing their own energy
and using it to also power the family car.
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新家使用自產的電源,
用來給自家的汽車充電。
09:25
I mean, cities have always been regarded
as being more energy-efficient,
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我的意思是,城市一向
被視為更有效地使用能源,
09:30
but let me tell you,
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但是讓我告訴你,
09:31
repopulating the countryside
can be eco too.
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居民返居鄉間,也可以變得環保。
09:36
By now, you're probably thinking
of all the advantages of country living.
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現在你可能想著鄉居的好處。
09:40
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
09:43
I did it myself.
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我自己就移居到鄉間。
09:44
Six years ago, my wife and I,
we packed our stuff,
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六年前,妻子和我打包了家當,
09:47
we sold our little apartment in Spain,
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賣了我們在西班牙的小公寓,
09:49
and for the same money
we bought a house with a garden
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用那些錢買了一個有花園的房子,
09:55
and little birds that come
singing in the morning.
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每天早上都能聽見鳥在唱歌。
09:57
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
09:59
It's so nice there.
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那個環境太好了!
10:01
And we live in a small village,
not really the countryside yet.
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我們住的小村莊還不算太鄉下。
10:04
That is going to be my next move:
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但那是我下一步的計畫:
10:06
a refurbished farmhouse,
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整修一個農場,
10:09
not too far from a city, not too close.
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離城市不遠也不近,
10:12
And now we'll make sure
to have a good spot for drones to land.
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確保有個無人機降落的地點。
10:15
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
10:16
But hey, that's me.
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不過,嘿,那是我的盤算,
10:18
It doesn't have to be you,
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未必是你的。
10:19
because it would seem
like I'm trying to convince somebody
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因為看起來好像我在嘗試說服你們
10:22
to come join us in the country.
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跟我一起移居到鄉間生活。
10:23
I'm not.
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我可沒有。
10:25
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
10:26
I don't need more people to come.
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我不要更多人住進來。
10:28
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
10:29
I just think they will
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我只是認為人們會移居鄉間,
10:31
once they realize they can have
the same benefits the city has.
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一旦他們意識到鄉間
和城市有同樣的好處。
10:35
But if you don't like the country,
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但是如果你不喜歡鄉村,
10:37
I have good news for you, too.
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我也有好消息要告訴你。
10:39
Cities will not disappear.
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城市不會消失。
10:42
But as people move out,
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但是當人們遷出,
10:43
a lower density will help them
recover a better flow and balance.
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降低的人口密度
有助於城市的管理和平衡。
10:49
Anyway, I guess now
you have some thinking to do.
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不管怎麼樣,我猜你們會思考的。
10:53
Do you still think
you need to live in the city?
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你們仍覺得需要住在城市裡嗎?
10:56
And more importantly,
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更重要的是,
10:58
do you want to?
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你們「想要」住在城市裡嗎?
11:00
Thank you very much.
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謝謝大家!
11:01
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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