Eleni Gabre-Madhin: Building a commodities market in Ethiopia

88,201 views ・ 2007-10-26

TED


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Traducător: Aurelian Corneliu Moraru Corector: Laszlo Kereszturi
00:26
You know, there's a small country nestled in the Himalayan Mountains,
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Dumneavoastra stiti ca exista o tara mica asezata chiar in Muntii Himalaya,
00:30
far from these beautiful mountains, where the people
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departe de acesti munti frumosi, unde locuitorii
00:32
of the Kingdom of Bhutan have decided to do something different,
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Regatului Bhutan au decis sa intreprinda ceva diferit,
00:35
which is to measure their gross national happiness
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adica sa măsoare Producţia Naţională de Fericire
00:38
rather than their gross national product.
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în locul Produsului Intern Brut.
00:40
And why not?
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Şi de ce nu?
00:42
After all, happiness is not just a privilege for the lucky few,
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Una peste alta, fericirea nu este doar privilegiu al câtorva norocoşi,
00:46
but a fundamental human right for all.
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ci, din contră, un drept fundamental al tuturor.
00:49
And what is happiness?
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Şi ce este fericirea?
00:51
Happiness is the freedom of choice.
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Fericirea este libertatea de alegere.
00:53
The freedom to chose where to live,
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Libertatea de a alege unde să trăieşti,
00:55
what to do, what to buy, what to sell,
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ce să faci, ce să cumperi, ce să vinzi,
00:58
from whom, to whom, when and how.
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de la cine, cui, unde şi cum.
01:02
Where does choice come from?
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De unde vine alegerea?
01:05
And who gets to express it, and how do we express it?
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Şi cine ajunge să o exprime şi cum o exprimăm noi?
01:08
Well, one way to express choice is through the market.
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Ei bine, o cale prin care ne exprimăm alegerea este prin intermediul pieţii.
01:13
Well-functioning markets provide choices, and ultimately,
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Pieţele care funcţionează bine oferă opţiuni şi, în final,
01:16
the ability to express one's pursuit for happiness.
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abilitatea de a exprima urmărirea de catre cineva a fericirii.
01:21
The great Indian economist, Amartya Sen, was awarded the Nobel prize
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Celebrului economist indian, Amartya Sen, i-a fost decernat premiul Nobel
01:28
for demonstrating that famine is not so much about
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pentru ca a demonstrat ca foametea nu are de-a face atat de mult cu
01:31
the availability of food supply, but rather the ability to acquire
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aprovizionarea cu alimente, ci mai degraba cu abilitatea de a dobandi
01:35
or entitle oneself to that food through the market.
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sau indreptati pe cineva la acea hrana prin intermediul pietii.
01:39
In 1984, in what can only be considered one of the
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In 1984, in ceea ce ar putea fi considerata una dintre cele
01:43
greatest crimes of humanity, nearly one million people died of starvation
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mai mari crime ale umanitatii, aproape un milion de oameni au murit de foame
01:47
in my country of birth, Ethiopia.
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in tara mea natala, Etiopia.
01:49
Not because there was not enough food --
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Nu pentru ca nu a fost suficienta hrana,
01:51
because there was actually a surplus of food
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pentru ca, de fapt, a fost un surplus de hrana
01:54
in the fertile regions of the south parts of the country --
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in regiunile fertile din partile de sud ale tarii,
01:58
but because in the north, people could not access
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ci pentru ca, in nord, oamenii nu au avut acces
02:00
or entitle themselves to that food.
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sau nu au putut dobandi acces la acea hrana.
02:02
That was a turning point for my life.
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Acela a fost un moment crucial in viata mea.
02:04
Most Africans today, by far, are farmers.
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Astazi cea mai mare parte a Africanilor sunt, in cea mai mare parte, fermieri.
02:07
And most of Africa's farmers are, by and large,
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Si majoritatea agricultorilor Africii sunt, de departe,
02:11
small farmers in terms of land that they operate, and very, very small
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agricultori mici in ceea ce priveste terenul pe care produc si agricultori foarte, foarte mici
02:15
farmers in terms of the capital they have at their disposal.
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din punct de vedere al capitalului pe care il au la dispozitie.
02:19
African agriculture today is among, or is, the most under-capitalized in the world.
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La momentul de fata, agricultura africana este printre, ori este cea mai sub-capitalizata din lume.
02:25
Only seven percent of arable land in Africa is irrigated,
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Numai sapte la procente din terenul arabil din Arica este irigat,
02:30
compared to 40 percent in Asia.
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in comparatie cu 40 de procente in Asia.
02:32
African farmers only use some 22 kilograms of fertilizer per hectare,
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Agricultorii africani folosesc doar 22 de kilograme de fertilizator la hectar,
02:39
compared to 144 in Asia.
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in comparatie cu 144 in Asia.
02:43
Road density is six times greater in Asia than it is in rural Africa.
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Densitatea drumurilor este de sase ori mai mare in Asia fata de Africa rurala.
02:48
There are eight times more tractors in Latin America,
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Sunt de opt ori mai multe tractoare in America Latina,
02:51
and three times more tractors in Asia, than in Africa.
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si de trei ori mai multe in Asia, decat in Africa.
02:56
The small farmer in Africa today lives a life without much choice,
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Agricultorii mici din Africa zilelor noastre traiesc o viata fara prea multe optiuni
03:00
and therefore without much freedom.
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si, prin urmare, fara prea multa libertate.
03:02
His livelihood is predetermined
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Mijloacele lui de supravietuire sunt predeterminate
03:04
by the conditions of grinding poverty.
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de condiţiile de saracie asupritoare.
03:07
He comes to the market when prices are lowest,
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El vine la piata cand preturile sunt cele mai mici
03:10
with the meager fruits of his hard labor, just after the harvest,
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cu fructele slabe ale muncii lui grele, imediat după recoltare,
03:13
because he has no choice.
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pentru ca el nu are alternativa.
03:15
She comes back to the market
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Ea se intoarce la piata
03:18
some months later, when prices are highest, in what we call
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cateva luni mai tarziu, cand preturile sunt cele mai mari, in ceea ce noi numim
03:21
the lean season -- when food is scarce --
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sezonul slab -- cand hrana este neîndestulătoare --
03:24
because she has to feed her family and has no choice.
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pentru ca ea trebuie sa-si hraneasca familia si nu are alta optiune.
03:30
The real question is, how can markets be developed in rural Africa
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Intrebarea reala este: cum pot fi dezvoltate pietele in Africa rurala
03:35
to harness the power of innovation and entrepreneurship
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pentru a valorifica puterea de inovare şi spirit antreprenorial
03:38
that we know exists?
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care noi stim ca exista?
03:40
Another notable economist, Theodore Schultz,
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Un alt economist notabil, Theodore Schultz,
03:45
in 1974 won the Nobel prize for demonstrating that farmers
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in 1974 a primit premiul Nobel pentru ca a demonstrat ca agricultorii
03:49
are efficient, but poor.
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sunt eficienti dar, saraci.
03:51
Meaning, in fact, that farmers are rational
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Afirmand, de fapt, ca agricultorii sunt rationali
03:54
and profit-minded just like everybody else.
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si orientati pe profit precum toti ceilalti.
03:56
Well, we don't need, now,
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Bine, nu avem nevoie, acum,
03:59
any more Nobel prizes to know that farmers want a fair shake
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de alte premii Nobel, să aflăm că agricultorii doresc un tratament echitabil
04:02
at the market and want to make money, just like everyone else.
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in piata si ca vor sa faca profit, la fel ca oricine altcineva.
04:06
And one thing is clear, which is at least now we know
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Si un lucru este cert, pe care cel putin noi il stim acum
04:10
that Africa is open for business.
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ca Africa este deschisa pentru afaceri.
04:12
And that business is agriculture.
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Si aceasta afacere este agricultura.
04:16
Over two decades ago, the world insisted to Africa that markets
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Cu peste doua decenii in urma, lumea insista ca pietele din Africa
04:20
must be liberalized, that economies must be structurally adjusted.
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trebuie liberalizate -- ca aceste economii trebuie ajustate structural.
04:25
This meant that governments were to remove themselves
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Aceasta insemna ca guvernele trebuiau sa se retraga
04:27
from the business of buying and selling --
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din afacerile de vanzare si cumparare
04:29
which they did rather inefficiently --
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pe care acestia o faceau oarecum ineficient --
04:31
and let the private market do its magic.
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si sa lase piata privata sa-si faca magia.
04:34
Well, what happened over the last 25 years?
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Bine, ce s-a intamplat in ultimii 25 de ani?
04:37
Did Africa feed itself?
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S-a hranit Africa singura?
04:39
Did our farmers turn into highly productive commercial actors?
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Au devenit fermierii actori comerciali cu o productivitate inalta?
04:43
I think we're all in this room,
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Eu cred ca noi toti suntem in aceasta camera
04:46
probably, because we know that, in fact, Africa is the only region
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probabil, pentru ca noi stim ca, de fapt, Africa este singura regiune
04:50
in the world where hunger and malnutrition are projected to go up
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din lume unde foamea si malnutrinitia se preconizeaza ca se vor accentua
04:54
over the next 10 years,
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in urmatorii 10 ani.
04:56
where the food import bill is now double
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Unde factura mancarii importate este acum dubla
04:59
what it was 20 years ago,
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fata de cum a fost in urma cu 20 de ani.
05:01
where food production per capita has
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Unde productia de hrana pe cap de locuitor
05:05
stagnated, and where fertilizer use has declined rather than increased.
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a stagnat, si unde folosirea fertilizarii a scazut in loc sa creasca.
05:11
So why didn't agriculture markets perform to expectations?
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De ce pietele agricole nu au raspuns asteptarilor?
05:14
The market reforms prompted by the West --
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Reformele pietei preconizate de catre Vest --
05:16
and I've spent some 15 years traveling around the continent
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si am petrecut aproape 15 ani calatorind de-a lungul continentului
05:21
doing research on agricultural markets, and have interviewed
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facand cercetari asupra pietelor agricle, si am intervievat
05:24
traders in 10 to 15 countries in this continent, hundreds of traders --
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comercianti in 10 - 15 tari de pe acest continent -- sute de comercianti --
05:29
trying to understand what went wrong with our market reform.
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incercand sa inteleg ceea ce a fost gresit in reforma pietii noastre.
05:34
And it seems to me that the reforms might have
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Mi se pare ca aceste reforme ar putea sa fi
05:38
thrown the baby out with the bath water.
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aruncat copilul din cada impreuna cu apa din ea.
05:40
Like its agriculture,
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Ca si agricultura,
05:42
Africa's markets are highly under-capitalized and inefficient.
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pietele africane sunt in mare parte sub-capitalizate si ineficiente.
05:46
We know from our work around the continent
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Noi stim din munca noastra pe intreg continentul
05:48
that transaction costs of reaching the market,
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ca, costurile de tranzactie pentru a ajunge la piata,
05:51
and the risks of transacting in rural, agriculture markets,
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si ca riscurile tranzactionarii in pietele agriculturii rurale,
05:55
are extremely high.
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sunt extrem de mari.
05:57
In fact, only one third of agricultural output
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De fapt, numai o treime din productia agricola
06:00
produced in Africa even reaches the market.
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produsa in Africa ajunge chiar in piata.
06:03
Africa's markets are weak not only because of weak infrastructure
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Pietele africane sunt slabe, nu numai din cauza infrastructurii slabe
06:07
in terms of roads and telecommunications, but also because
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in ceea ce priveste drumurile si telecomunicatiile, dar si din cauza
06:11
of the virtual absence of necessary market institutions, such as
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absentei virtuale a institutiilor necesare pietii precum
06:15
market information, grades and standards,
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informatii de piata, grade si standarde
06:19
and reliable ways to connect buyers and sellers.
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si cai viabile de a conecta cumparatorii de vanzatori.
06:22
Because of this, commodity buyers and sellers typically transact in small circles,
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Din cauza acestui fapt, cumparatorii si vanzatorii de marfuri tranzactioneaza, de obicei, in cercuri mici,
06:27
in narrow networks of people they know and trust.
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in retele inguste de oameni pe care-i cunosc si in care au incredere.
06:31
And because of that, as grain changes hands --
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Si din cauza aceasta, cum cerealele trec prin mai multe maini --
06:35
and I've measured that it changes hands four, five times in
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si am masurat ca acestea se schimba de patru, cinci ori in
06:39
its trajectory from the farmer to the consumer --
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traseul lor de la fermier la consumator --
06:42
every time it changes hands -- and I've seen this all over rural Africa --
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de fiecare data cand trec dintr-o mana in alta -- si am vazut asta pe intreg teritoriul Africii rurale --
06:46
it also changes sacks.
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se schimba si sacii.
06:48
And I thought that was incredibly peculiar.
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Si m-am gandit ca asta a fost incredibil de deosebit.
06:50
And really realized that that was because -- as traders would tell me
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Si am inteles ca aceasta se intampla pentru ca -- dupa cum imi spun comerciantii
06:53
over and over -- that's the only way people know what they're getting
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odata si inca o data -- aceasta este singura cale prin care oamenii stiu ce primesc
06:56
in terms of the quantity and the product quality.
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in termenii cantitatii si calitatii produselor.
07:00
And that actually has huge implications
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Si aceasta are implicatii enorme
07:03
for the ability of markets to quickly respond to price signals,
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asupra abilitatii pietelor de a raspunde promt la semnalele pretului,
07:08
and situations where there are deficits, for example.
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si la situatii cand sunt deficite, de exemplu.
07:11
It also has very high cost implications.
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De asemenea are implicatii foarte mari asupra costului.
07:14
I have measured that 26 percent of the marketing margin
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Am masurat ca 26 de procente din marja de marketing
07:17
is simply due to the fact that, because of the absence
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se datoreaza absentei
07:19
of grades and standards and market information,
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gradelor si standardelor si informatiilor de piata,
07:23
sacks have to be constantly changed.
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sacii trebuie sa fie in mod constant schimbati.
07:26
And this leads to very high handling costs.
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Si acest fapt conduce la costuri de manuire foarte mari.
07:29
For their part, small farmers, who produce the bulk of our agricultural output in Africa,
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La rândul lor, micii fermieri, care produc cea mai mare parte a producţiei noastre agricole în Africa
07:34
come to the market with virtually no information at all -- blind --
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vin la piaţă practic cu nici o informaţie - orbeste.
07:38
trusting that they're going to have
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Fiind increzatori ca vor avea
07:41
some sort of demand for their produce,
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o cat de cat cerere pentru produsele lor,
07:44
and completely at the mercy of the merchants
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si sunt complet la mana comerciantilor
07:48
in the only market, the nearest local market they know --
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in singura piata, cea mai apropriata piata pe care ei o cunosc --
07:52
where they're unable to negotiate better prices or reduce their risk.
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unde ei nu sunt in masura sa negocieze preturi mai bune sau sa-si reduca riscul.
07:55
Speaking of risk, we have seen that price volatility
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Vorbind de risc, am văzut că volatilitatea preţurilor
07:59
of food crops in Africa is the highest in the world.
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culturilor alimentare în Africa este cea mai mare din lume.
08:01
In Africa, small farmers bear the brunt of this risk.
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În Africa, mici fermieri duc greul acestui risc.
08:05
In fact, in my view, there is no region of the world and no period in history
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De fapt, în opinia mea, nu există nici o regiune a lumii şi nici o perioadă din istorie
08:14
that farmers have been expected to bear the kind of market risk
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in care fermierii au trebuit sa suporte tipul de risc al pietii
08:15
that Africa's farmers have to bear.
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pe care fermierii din Africa trebuie sa le suporte.
08:18
And in my view, there is simply no place in the world
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Si in opinia mea, pur si simplu nu exista loc in lume
08:20
that has grown its agriculture on the kind of risk
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care si-a construit propria agricultura pe tipul de risc
08:24
that our farmers in Africa today face.
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pe care fermierii nostrii din Africa zilelor noastre il infrunta.
08:27
In Ethiopia, for example, the variation in maize prices
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In Etiopia, de exemplu, variatia preturilor porumbului
08:31
from year to year is as much as 50 percent annually.
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de la un an la altul este de 50 de procente anual.
08:34
This kind of market risk is mind-boggling, and has direct implications
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Acest fel de risc al pietii este innebunitor, si are implicatii directe
08:38
for not only the incentives of farmers to invest
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nu numai pentru stimulentele fermierilor de a investi
08:42
in higher productivity technology, such as modern seeds and fertilizers,
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în tehnologie cu productivitate mai mare, cum ar fi seminţe moderne şi îngrăşăminte,
08:47
but also direct implications for food security.
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dar, de asemenea cu implicaţii directe pentru securitatea alimentară.
08:50
To give you an example, between 2001 and 2002,
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Ca sa va ofer un exemplu, intre 2001 si 2002
08:54
Ethiopian maize farmers produced two years of bumper harvest.
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agricultorii etiopieni de porumb au produs doi ani productia maxima.
08:57
That in turn, because of the weak marketing system,
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Aceasta, la rândul său, din cauza sistemului de comercializare slab,
09:00
led to an 80 percent collapse in maize prices in the country.
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a condus la un colaps cu 80 la sută al preţurilor la porumb în ţară.
09:05
This made it unprofitable for some farmers to even harvest the grain from the fields.
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Acest lucru a făcut-o neprofitabilă pentru unii agricultori chiar si recolta de cereale din camp.
09:10
And we calculated that some 300,000 tons of grain
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Şi am calculat că aproximativ 300.000 de tone de cereale
09:13
was left in the fields to rot in early 2002.
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a fost lăsată pe camp sa putrezească la începutul anului 2002.
09:17
Not six months later, in July 2002, Ethiopia announced a major food crisis,
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Nici şase luni mai târziu, în iulie 2002, Etiopia a anunţat o criză majoră alimentară,
09:23
to the same proportions as 1984: 14 million people at risk of starvation.
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de aceleasi proportii ca cea din 1984 -- 14 milioane de oameni riscand sa moara de foame.
09:28
What also happened that year
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Ce s-a intamplat de asemenea in acel an
09:31
is in the areas where there were good rains, and where farmers
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este în zonele în care au fost ploi bune, şi unde agricultorii
09:35
had previously produced surplus grain, farmers had decided
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au avut anterior productii excedentare de cereale, agricultorii au decis
09:39
to withdraw from the fertilizer market, not use fertilizer
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să se retragă de pe piaţa ingrasamintelor, să nu utilize fertilizatori,
09:43
and actually had dropped their use of fertilizer by 27 percent.
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şi de fapt, au scăzut utilizarea de îngrăşăminte cu 27 procente.
09:47
This is a tragic example of arrested development,
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Acesta este un exemplu tragic de dezvoltare oprită,
09:53
or a budding green revolution stopped in its tracks.
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sau de revolutie verde abia inmugurita oprita din drumul ei.
09:56
And this is not just specific to Ethiopia,
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Şi acest lucru nu este specific doar pentru Etiopia,
09:58
but happens over and over, all over Africa.
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dar se intampla peste tot, pe tot cuprinsul Africii.
10:02
Well, I'm not here today to lament about the situation, or wring my hands.
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Ei bine, eu nu sunt aici, astăzi, pentru a ma lamenta despre situaţie, sau pentru a-mi rasuci mâinile.
10:09
I am here to tell you that change is in the air.
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Sunt aici să vă spun că schimbarea pluteste în aer.
10:13
Africa today is not the Africa waiting for aid solutions,
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Africa de astăzi nu este Africa ce aşteaptă solutii de ajutor,
10:17
or cookie-cutter foreign expert policy prescriptions.
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sau reţete prefabricate ale experţilor de politică externă.
10:21
Africa has learned, or is learning somewhat slowly,
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Africa a invatat, ori invata -- intr-un fel incet --
10:25
that markets don't happen by themselves.
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că pieţele nu se intampla de la sine.
10:28
In the 1980s, it was very fashionable
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In anii '80, era foarte la moda
10:31
to talk about getting prices right.
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sa vorbesti despre obtinerea pretului corect.
10:33
There was a very influential book about that,
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Era o carte foarte influenta despre aceasta,
10:35
which was mainly about getting governments out of the market.
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care era în principal despre eliminarea guvernelor de pe piaţă.
10:39
We now recognize that getting markets right is about not just
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Noi acum recunoastem ca, corectia pietelor nu se face doar prin
10:43
price incentives, but also investing in the right infrastructure
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stimulente pentru preturi, dar in egala masura prin investitii corecte in infrastructura
10:47
and the appropriate and necessary institutions to create
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si in institutii adecvate si necesare, care sa creeze
10:50
the conditions to unleash the power of innovation in the market.
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conditiile pentru a elibera puterea de inovare in piata.
10:55
When conditions are right, we know and see
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In cazul in care conditiile sunt propice, noi stim si vedem
10:58
that that innovation is ready to explode in rural Africa,
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faptul ca inovarea este gata sa explodeze in Africa rurala,
11:02
just like anywhere else.
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la fel ca oriunde în altă parte.
11:04
Nearly three years ago, I decided to leave my comfortable job
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Aproape trei ani in urma, am decis să părăsesc slujba mea confortabilă
11:08
as a World Bank senior economist in Washington
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de economist senior al Băncii Mondiale din Washington
11:11
and come back to my country of birth, Ethiopia,
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si sa ma intorc in tara mea natala, Etiopia,
11:13
after nearly 30 years abroad.
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dupa aproape 30 de ani in strainatate.
11:15
I did so for a simple reason.
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Am facut-o pentru un motiv simplu.
11:17
After having spent more than a decade
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După ce am petrecut mai mult de un deceniu,
11:21
understanding, studying, and trying to convince policymakers and donors
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înţelegând, studiind, şi încercând să conving factorii de decizie politică şi donatorii
11:26
about what was wrong with Africa's agricultural markets,
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despre ceea ce a fost greşit cu pieţele agricole ale Africii
11:28
I decided it was time to do something about it.
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am decis ca este timpul sa fac ceva pentru asta.
11:32
I currently lead, in Ethiopia, an exciting new initiative
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In momentul de fata conduc, in Etiopia, o initiativa noua
11:37
to establish the first Ethiopia Commodity Exchange, or ECX.
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de a infiinta prima Bursa Etiopiana de Produse , sau ECX.
11:41
Now, the commodity exchange itself, that concept,
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Acum, schimbul de mărfuri în sine, ca noţiune,
11:45
is not new to the world.
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nu este nou in lume.
11:47
In fact, in 1848, 82 grain merchants and farmers got together
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De fapt, în 1848, 82 negustori de cereale şi agricultori s-au reunit
11:51
in a small town at the crossroads of the Illinois River and Lake Michigan
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intr-un oras mic aflat la intersecţia râului Illinois şi Laculului Michigan
11:56
to establish a way to trade better amongst themselves.
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pentru a stabili o modalitate mai buna a schimburilor comerciale între ei.
12:02
That was, of course, the birth of the Chicago Board of Trade,
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Acesta a fost cu siguranta momentul in care s-a infiintat Chicago Board of Trade,
12:06
which is the most famous commodity exchange in the world.
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care este cea mai cunoscuta piata de marfuri din lume.
12:10
The Chicago Board of Trade was established then
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The Chicago Board of Trade s-a infiintat atunci
12:12
for precisely the same reasons
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pentru exact aceleasi motive
12:14
that our farmers today would benefit from a commodity exchange.
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pentru care agricultorii zilelor noastre ar beneficia de schimbul de marfuri.
12:19
In the American Midwest, farmers used to load grain onto barges
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In American Midwest, agricultorii obisnuiau sa incarce cereale in barje
12:22
and send it upriver to the Chicago market.
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şi sa le trimita in amonte catre piaţă din Chicago.
12:25
But once it arrived, if no buyer was to be found,
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Dar odata ajunse, daca nu se gaseau cumparatori,
12:30
or if prices suddenly dropped, farmers would incur tremendous losses.
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sau daca preturile scadeau brusc, agricultorii ar suporta pierderi enorme.
12:35
And in fact, would even dump the grain in Lake Michigan,
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Si de fapt, chiar ar rasturna cerealele in Lacul Michigan,
12:37
rather than spend more money transporting it back to their farms.
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decat sa cheltuie mai multi bani pentru ca sa le transporte inapoi la fermele lor.
12:41
Well, the need to avoid these huge risks and tremendous losses
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Ei bine, nevoia de a evita aceste riscuri enorme si pierderi impresionante
12:46
led to the birth of the futures market, and the underlying system
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a condus la nasterea viitoarelor piete, si a stat la baza sistemului
12:49
of grading grain and receipting -- issuing warehouse receipts
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de clasificare a cerealelor si receptie -- emiterea chitantelor de depozit
12:53
on the basis of which trade could be done.
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pe baza carora schimbul poate sa aiba loc.
12:55
From there, the greatest innovation of all came about in this market,
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De aici, cea mai mare inovatie din toate a aparut pe aceasta piata,
13:01
which is that buyers and sellers could transact grain
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care este faptul ca vanzatorii si cumparatorii pot tranzactiona cereale
13:04
without actually having to physically or visually inspect the grain.
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de fapt fără a trebui sa inspecteze fizic sau vizual cerealele.
13:09
That meant that grain could be traded across tremendous distances,
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Aceasta inseamna ca cerealele pot fi tranzactionate la distante enorme,
13:12
and even across time -- as far forward as 18 months into the future.
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si chiar in timp -- cu pana la 18 luni in viitor.
13:17
This innovation is at the heart of the transformation of American agriculture,
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Aceasta inovatie sta la baza transformarii agriculturii americane,
13:21
and the rise of Chicago to a global market,
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si la avansarea orasului Chicago ca piata globala,
13:25
agricultural market, superpower from where it was, a small regional town.
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piata agricola, superputere de la ce era -- un mic oras regional.
13:30
Now, over the last century,
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Acum, in ultimul secol,
13:33
we tend to think of commodity exchanges as the purview
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avem tendinţa să ne gândim la bursele de mărfuri ca un subiect de competenta
13:36
of Western industrialized countries,
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tarilor industrializate vestice.
13:38
and that the reference prices for cotton, coffee, cocoa --
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Si ca pretul de referinta pentru bumbac, cafea, cacao --
13:41
products produced mainly in the south --
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produse fabricate in principal in Sud --
13:44
are actually a reference price, or a price discovered in these
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sunt de fapt preturi de referinta, sau un pret descoperit in aceste
13:49
organized commodity exchanges in the northern countries.
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schimburi organizate de marfuri din tarile Nordice.
13:53
But that is actually changing.
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Dar de fapt aceasta se schimba.
13:55
And we're seeing a shift --
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Si noi asistam la o schimbare,
13:57
powered mainly because of information technology --
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generata in principal datorita tehnologiei informatiei,
14:00
a shift in market dominance towards the emerging markets.
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O schimbare in dominatia pietei spre pietele emergente.
14:03
And over the last decade, you see that the share of Western exchanges --
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Si in ultimul deceniu, veti observa ca ponderea schimburilor vestice --
14:08
and this is the U.S. share of exchanges in the world --
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si acest lucru este proportia schimburilor SUA in lume --
14:14
has gone down by nearly half in just the last decade.
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a scazut cu aproape jumătate în doar ultimul deceniu.
14:17
Similarly, there's been explosive growth in India, for example,
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Similar, este o crestere exploziva in India, de exemplu,
14:21
where rural farmers are using exchanges -- growing here
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unde agricultorii rurali folosesc schimburile -- crestere aici
14:25
over the last three years by 270 percent a year.
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în ultimii trei ani, de 270 la sută pe an.
14:30
This is powered by low-cost VSAT technology,
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Acest lucru este alimentat de tehnologia VSAT ieftina,
14:33
aggressively trying to reach farmers to bring them into the market.
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incercand agresiv sa ajunga la agricultori si sa-i aduca in piata.
14:37
China's Dalian Commodity Exchange, three years ago,
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China's Dalian Commodity Exchange, trei ani in urma --
14:41
2004, overtook the Chicago Board of Trade to become
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2004 -- a pus stapanire pe Chicago Board of Trade devenind
14:44
the second largest commodity exchange in the world.
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a doua piata de schimburi de marfuri din lume.
14:48
Now, in Ethiopia, we're in the process of designing
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Acum, in Etiopia, noi ne aflam in proces de proiectare
14:52
the first organized Ethiopia Commodity Exchange.
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a primei Piete Etiopiene de Marfuri organizate.
14:55
We're not trying to cut and paste the Chicago model
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Noi nu incercam sa copiem modelul Chicago
14:58
or the India model, but creating a system uniquely tailored
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sau modelul Indian, ci sa creem un sistem unic adaptat
15:01
to Ethiopia's needs and realities,
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la nevoile si realitatilor etiopiene,
15:03
Ethiopia's small farmers.
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micilor agricultori Etiopieni.
15:05
So, the ECX is an Ethiopian exchange for Ethiopia.
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Asa ca, ECX este schimbul Etiopian pentru Etiopia.
15:08
We're creating a system that serves all market actors,
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Noi creeeam un sistem care serveste tuturor actorilor pietii.
15:12
that creates integrity, trust, efficiency, transparency
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Aceasta creeaza integritate, incredere, eficienta, transparenta
15:18
and enables small farmers to manage the risks that I have described.
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si permite micilor agricultori sa gestioneze riscurile pe care le-am descris.
15:22
In the design of our commodity exchange in Ethiopia,
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In proiectarea schimbului de marfuri in Etiopia,
15:25
we've done something rather unique, which is to
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noi am facut ceva mai degraba unic, care este de a
15:27
take the approach of an integrated perspective,
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aborda dintr-o perspectiva integrata
15:29
or what we call the ECX Edge.
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sau ceea ce noi numim ECX Edge.
15:32
The ECX Edge pretty much creates the entire ecosystem
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ECX Edge creaza in mare parte intregul eco-sistem
15:36
in which the market will develop itself.
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in care piata se va dezvolta de la sine.
15:39
And this is because one of the things we've learned
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Şi asta pentru că unul din lucrurile pe care le-am învăţat
15:42
over the last decade of studying market development in Africa
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in ultima decada de studii privind dezvoltarea pietei in Africa
15:45
is that the piecemeal approach does not work.
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este faptul că abordare fragmentată nu funcţionează.
15:48
You've got one donor trying to develop market information,
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Ai un donor care incearca sa dezvolte informatiile din piata,
15:51
another trying to work on or sponsor grades and standards,
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altul incearca sa faca sau sponsorizeze gradele si standardele
15:55
another ICT, and yet another on warehousing, or warehouse receipts.
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un altul ICT, si inca unul pentru depozitare -- sau pentru chitantele de depozit.
16:01
In our approach in Ethiopia,
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In abordarea noastra in Etiopia,
16:03
we've decided to put together the entire ecosystem,
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noi am decis sa punem impreuna intregul eco-sistem,
16:07
or environment, in which trade takes place.
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sau mediu, in care schimburile iau parte.
16:10
That means that the exchange will operate a trading system,
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Aceasta inseamna ca schimbul va opera un sistem de comercializare,
16:14
which will initially start as an open outcry,
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care va începe iniţial ca o licitatie prin strigare.
16:18
because we don't think the country's ready for full electronic trading.
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Pentru ca noi nu credem ca tara este pregatita pentru un sistem de comert complet electronic.
16:21
But at the same time, we'll do something which I think no exchange
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Dar, in acelasi timp, noi vom face ceva care eu cred ca nici un comert
16:23
in the world has ever done, which is itself to operate something like
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din lume nu a facut vreodata, care in sine opereaza ca ceva similar
16:28
an Internet cafe in the rural areas.
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Internet cafe-urilor din zonele rurale.
16:30
So that farmers and small traders
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Asa ca agricultorii si micii comericanti
16:33
can actually come to a terminal center -- what we call
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pot efectiv sa vina la un centru terminal -- ceea ce noi numim
16:36
the remote access terminal centers -- and actually,
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centre terminale la distanta -- si de fapt,
16:39
without having to buy a computer or figure out how to dial up
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fara sa fie nevoie sa cumperi un computer sau sa inveti cum sa faci o conexiune dial up
16:41
or any of those things, simply see the trading
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sau alte lucruri din acestea, sa vezi pur si simplu comertul
16:44
that's happening on the Addis Ababa trading floor.
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care are loc la bursa de comert din Adiss Ababa.
16:48
At the same time, what's very fundamental to this market is that --
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In acelasi timp, ce este fundamental pentru aceasta piata este ca --
16:51
and again, an innovation that we've designed for our exchange --
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si din nou, o inovatie pe care noi am proiectat-o pentru bursa noastra --
16:55
is that the exchange will operate warehouses around the country,
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este ca schimburile vor opera in silozuri pe intreg teritoriul tarii,
16:58
in which grade certification and warehouse receipting will be done.
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in care certificatele-grade si chitantele-depozit sunt eliberate.
17:02
And in turn, we'll operate an in-house clearing system,
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Si in schimb noi vom opera un sistem propriu de compensare,
17:05
to assure that payment is done appropriately,
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pentru a asigura ca plata este facuta corespunzator,
17:09
in the right amount and at the right time,
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in suma convenita si la timpul potrivit,
17:12
so that basically, we create trust and integrity in the system.
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asa ca de fapt noi creem incredere si integritate in sistem.
17:16
Obviously, we work with exchange actors,
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Evident noi lucram cu actorii schimbului,
17:19
and as we're developing the exchange market itself,
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si pe masura ce dezvoltam piata de schimburi insasi,
17:22
we're also developing the regulatory infrastructure and legal framework,
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noi de asemenea dezvoltam infrastructura de reglementari si cadrul legal --
17:26
the overarching legal framework for making this market work.
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cadrul legal general pentru a face această piaţă sa functioneze.
17:29
So, in fact, our proclamation
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Asa ca de fapt, proclamatia noastra
17:32
is going to parliament next month.
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ajunge in parlament luna viitoare.
17:35
What's really important is that the ECX will operate a market information system
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Ce e cu adevărat important este că ECX va opera un sistem de informaţii de piaţă
17:40
to disseminate prices in real time to farmers around the country,
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pentru a difuza preţurile în timp real catre agricultorii din tara,
17:44
using VSAT technology to bring an electronic price dissemination
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folosind tehnologia VSAT pentru a introduce diseminarea electronica a preţului,
17:49
directly to farmers.
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direct catre argicultori.
17:51
What this does is transforms, fundamentally,
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Ceea ce aceasta transforma, fundamental,
17:54
the farmers' relationship to the market.
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este relatia agricultorului cu piata.
17:57
Whereas before the farmer used to think local --
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Intrucat inainte agricultorul era obisnuit sa gandeasca local --
18:00
meaning that he or she would go to the nearest local market,
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intelegand ca el sau ea trebuiau sa mearga la cea mai apropriata piata locala,
18:03
eight to 10 kilometers away on average,
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opt la zece kilometri departare in medie,
18:05
and sell whatever they happened to have,
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si sa vanda ceea ce se intampla ca ei sa aiba,
18:07
without any idea of what the price premium or anything else was --
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fara nici o idee despre pretul mediu sau orice altceva a fost --
18:11
now farmers come with knowledge of what prices are at the national market.
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acum agricultorii vin cunoscand care sunt preturile la nivel national.
18:15
And they start to think national, and even global.
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Si ei incep sa gandeasca national, si chiar global.
18:18
They start to make not only commercial marketing decisions,
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Ei încep să facă nu numai decizii comerciale de piaţă,
18:22
but also planting decisions, on the basis of information
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dar de asemenea decizii in ce priveste plantarea, pe baza informatiilor
18:25
coming from the futures price market.
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venite din piata preturilor viitoare.
18:29
And they come to the market knowing what grades their products
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Si ei vin la piata stiind ce grade vor avea produsele lor
18:33
will achieve in terms of a price premium.
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in termenii pretului premium.
18:36
So all of this will transform farmers.
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Deci toate acestea vor transforma agricultorii.
18:38
It will also transform the way traders do business.
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Si de asemenea vor transforma modul in care comerciantii vor face afaceri.
18:41
It will stop them from doing simple, back-to-back, limited arbitrage
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Acesta-i va opri să facă acest simplu arbitraj limitat, back-to-back,
18:47
to really thinking strategically about how to move grain
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si sa gândeasca strategic într-adevăr despre cum să mute cereale
18:50
across long distances from [surplus regions] to [deficit areas].
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peste distanţe lungi de la zonele cu deficit, la regiunile excedentare
18:54
Can Ethiopia do this?
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Poate Etiopia sa faca asta?
18:57
It seems very ambitious.
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Pare foarte ambitios.
18:59
But it will create new opportunities.
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Dar va crea noi oportunitati.
19:01
We believe that this initiative requires great political will,
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Noi credem că această iniţiativă necesită o mare voinţă politică,
19:04
and we'll have to align the financial sector, as well as the ICT sector,
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si va trebui sa alinieze sectorul financiar precum si sectorul ICT,
19:09
and really even the underlying legal framework.
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si chiar si cadrul legislativ care sta la baza acestora.
19:13
We believe that the winds of change are here, and that we can do it.
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Noi credem ca vantul schimbarii a sosit, si ca noi putem sa facem asta.
19:17
ECX is the market for Ethiopia's new millennium,
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ECX este piata Etiopiei noului mileniu,
19:21
which starts in about eight months.
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care va incepe in aproximativ opt luni.
19:25
The last parliament of our century opened with our president
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Ultimul parlament al secolului nostru deschis de presedintele nostru
19:29
announcing to the country that this was the most important
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anuntand tarii ca acesta a fost cea mai importanta
19:32
economic initiative for the country today.
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initiativa economica a tarii de azi.
19:34
We believe that the stakes are high,
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Noi credem ca mizele sunt mari,
19:37
but that the returns will be even greater.
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dar ca beneficiile vor fi si mai mari.
19:40
ECX, moreover, can become a trading platform for a pan-African market
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In plus ECX poate deveni o platformă de tranzacţionare pentru o piaţă pan-africană
19:45
in agricultural commodities.
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a bunurilor agricole.
19:47
Ethiopia's domestic market is about one billion dollars of value.
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Piaţa internă Etiopiană este de aproximativ un miliard de dolari ca valoare.
19:51
And we feel that over the next five years,
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Si noi credem ca in urmatorii cinci ani,
19:55
if Ethiopia can capture even 40 percent, just 40 percent, of the domestic market,
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daca Etiopia ar putea capta chiar 40 de procente, numai 40 de procente ale pietii interne
20:01
and add just 25 percent value to that market, the value of the market doubles.
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si adaugand numai 25 de procente ca valoare acestei piete, valoarea pietei se dubleaza.
20:06
Ethiopia's agricultural market is 30 percent higher
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Piata agricola a Etiopiei este cu 30 de procente mai mare
20:09
than South Africa's grain production,
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decat productia de cereala a Africii de Sud --
20:13
and, in fact, Ethiopia is the second largest maize producer in Africa.
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si de fapt, Etiopia este al doilea producator de porumb in Africa.
20:16
So the potential is there.
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Asa ca potentialul este acolo.
20:18
The will is there.
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Vointa este acolo.
20:20
The commitment is there.
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Angajamentul este acolo.
20:22
So we feel that we have a winning value proposition
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Noi credem ca noi avem o propunere castigatore valoaroasa
20:26
to transform farmers' choices, to grow our agriculture,
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sa transformam optiunile fermierilor, sa crestem agricultura noastra,
20:30
and to change Africa.
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si de a schimba Africa.
20:32
So, we are in the business of finding our happiness.
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Asa ca, noi suntem in afacerea gasirii propriei noastre fericiri.
20:36
Thank you very much.
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Vă multumesc.
20:37
(Applause)
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(Aplauze)
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