Are China and the US doomed to conflict? | Kevin Rudd

3,087,082 views ใƒป 2015-04-01

TED


์•„๋ž˜ ์˜๋ฌธ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ”ํด๋ฆญํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฒˆ์—ญ: Ju Hye Lim ๊ฒ€ํ† : Jihyeon J. Kim
00:12
G'day, my name's Kevin.
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์•ˆ๋…•ํ•˜์„ธ์š” ์ €๋Š” ์ผ€๋นˆ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:14
I'm from Australia. I'm here to help.
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์„ ๋„์™€๋“œ๋ฆฌ๋Ÿฌ ํ˜ธ์ฃผ์—์„œ ์™”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:17
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
00:20
Tonight, I want to talk about a tale of two cities.
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์˜ค๋Š˜๋ฐค, ์ €๋Š” ๋‘ ๋„์‹œ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ๋งํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:24
One of those cities is called Washington, and the other is called Beijing.
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ํ•˜๋‚˜๋Š” ์œ„์‹ฑํ„ด์ด๊ณ  ํ•˜๋‚˜๋Š” ๋ฒ ์ด์ง•์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:30
Because how these two capitals shape their future
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๋‘ ์ˆ˜๋„๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ์ž ์–ด๋–ค ๋ฏธ๋ž˜๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“œ๋Š”์ง€๊ฐ€
00:36
and the future of the United States and the future of China
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์™€ ์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“œ๋Š”์ง€๊ฐ€
00:39
doesn't just affect those two countries,
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๋‘ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์—๋งŒ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์น˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:41
it affects all of us
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ ๋ชจ๋‘์—๊ฒŒ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ์ค๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:43
in ways, perhaps, we've never thought of:
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์–ด์ฉŒ๋ฉด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ํ•œ๋ฒˆ๋„ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด๋ณด์ง€ ๋ชปํ•œ ํ˜•ํƒœ๋กœ์š”.
00:46
the air we breathe, the water we drink,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ˆจ์‰ฌ๋Š” ๊ณต๊ธฐ, ๋งˆ์‹œ๋Š” ๋ฌผ
00:51
the fish we eat, the quality of our oceans,
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๋จน๋Š” ๋ฌผ๊ณ ๊ธฐ, ๋ฐ”๋‹ค์˜ ์ƒํƒœ
00:54
the languages we speak in the future,
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๋ฏธ๋ž˜์— ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•  ์–ธ์–ด,
00:57
the jobs we have, the political systems we choose,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์ง์—…, ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์„ ํƒํ•˜๋Š” ์ •์น˜์ œ๋„,
01:00
and, of course, the great questions of war and peace.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋ฌผ๋ก , ์ „์Ÿ๊ณผ ํ‰ํ™”์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ์ค‘๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ฌธ์ œ์—๋„์š”.
01:06
You see that bloke? He's French.
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์ด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ ๋ณด์ด์‹œ๋‚˜์š”? ํ”„๋ž‘์Šค์ธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:09
His name is Napoleon.
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์ด๋ฆ„์€ ๋‚˜ํด๋ ˆ์˜น์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:11
A couple of hundred years ago,
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200๋…„ ์ „์— ๊ทธ๋Š” ๋†€๋ผ์šด ์˜ˆ์ธก์„ ๋‚ด๋†“์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:12
he made this extraordinary projection:
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01:15
"China is a sleeping lion, and when she awakes,
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"์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ์ž ์ž๋Š” ์‚ฌ์ž์ด๋ฉฐ ๊นจ์–ด๋‚˜๋ฉด ์„ธ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ์ง„๋™์‹œํ‚ฌ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค."
01:17
the world will shake."
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01:19
Napoleon got a few things wrong;
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ํ‹€๋ฆฐ ๋ถ€๋ถ„๋„ ์žˆ์—ˆ์ง€๋งŒ
01:22
he got this one absolutely right.
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์ด๊ฒƒ ํ•˜๋‚˜๋Š” ํ™•์‹คํžˆ ๋งž์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:24
Because China is today not just woken up,
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์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ์˜ค๋Š˜๋‚  ๊ทธ์ € ์ž ์—์„œ ๊นฌ ๊ฒŒ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:29
China has stood up and China is on the march,
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์ผ์–ด๋‚˜ ์ง„๊ตฐํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ
01:32
and the question for us all
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ ๋ชจ๋‘๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ€์ง„ ์งˆ๋ฌธ์€
01:34
is where will China go
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์ค‘๊ตญ์ด ์–ด๋””๋กœ ๊ฐˆ์ง€์™€
01:36
and how do we engage this giant of the 21st century?
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ด 21์„ธ๊ธฐ ๊ฐ•๋Œ€๊ตญ๊ณผ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๊ด€๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๋งบ์–ด์•ผ ํ•˜๋Š”๊ฐ€ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:43
You start looking at the numbers, they start to confront you in a big way.
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์ˆ˜์น˜๋ฅผ ๋ณด๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•˜๋ฉด ๋” ํฌ๊ฒŒ ๋‹ค๊ฐ€์˜ต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:47
It's projected that China will become,
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์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ์–ด๋–ค ๊ธฐ์ค€์œผ๋กœ ์ธก์ •ํ•˜๋“ ์ง€
01:50
by whichever measure -- PPP, market exchange rates --
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๊ตฌ๋งค๋ ฅํ‰๊ฐ€(PPP)๋กœ๋“  ์‹œ์žฅํ™˜์œจ์œผ๋กœ๋“ 
01:53
the largest economy in the world
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ํ–ฅํ›„ 10๋…„ ๋™์•ˆ
01:55
over the course of the decade ahead.
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์„ธ๊ณ„์—์„œ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํฐ ๊ฒฝ์ œ๋Œ€๊ตญ์ด ๋  ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:58
They're already the largest trading nation,
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์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ์ด๋ฏธ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๋Œ€ ๋ฌด์—ญ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์ด์ž
02:00
already the largest exporting nation,
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์ˆ˜์ถœ๊ตญ์ด๊ณ 
02:02
already the largest manufacturing nation,
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์ƒ์‚ฐ๊ตญ์ด๋ฉฐ
02:04
and they're also the biggest emitters of carbon in the world.
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ํƒ„์†Œ ๋ฐฐ์ถœ๊ตญ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:08
America comes second.
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ 2์œ„์ฃ .
02:11
So if China does become the world's largest economy,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ค‘๊ตญ์ด ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๋Œ€ ๊ฒฝ์ œ๊ตญ์ด ๋˜๋ฉด
02:16
think about this:
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ผ์ด ๋ฒŒ์–ด์งˆ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:18
It'll be the first time
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์กฐ์ง€ 3์„ธ๊ฐ€
02:21
since this guy was on the throne of England --
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์™•์œ„์— ์˜ค๋ฅธ ์ด๋ž˜ ์ตœ์ดˆ๋กœ-
02:26
George III, not a good friend of Napoleon's --
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์ด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋‚˜ํด๋ ˆ์˜น๊ณผ ์นœํ•œ ์‚ฌ์ด๋Š” ์•„๋‹ˆ์—ˆ์ฃ .
02:29
that in the world we will have as the largest economy
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์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ์ดˆ๋กœ ๋น„์˜์–ด๊ถŒ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์ด์ž
02:35
a non-English speaking country,
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๋น„์„œ๊ตฌ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์ด๋ฉฐ
02:37
a non-Western country,
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๋น„์ž์œ ๋ฏผ์ฃผ์ฃผ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€
02:39
a non-liberal democratic country.
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์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๋Œ€ ๊ฒฝ์ œ๊ตญ์ผ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:42
And if you don't think that's going to affect
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์ด ์ „์„ธ๊ณ„์˜ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์—
02:44
the way in which the world happens in the future,
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์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์น˜์ง€ ์•Š์„ ๊ฑฐ๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์‹ ๋‹ค๋ฉด
02:47
then personally, I think you've been smoking something,
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋ณด๊ธฐ์—” ๋งˆ์•ฝ์„ ํ•˜์‹œ๋‚˜๋ด…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:50
and it doesn't mean you're from Colorado.
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๊ทธ๋ ‡๋‹ค๊ณ  ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด (๋งˆ์•ฝ์ด ํ•ฉ๋ฒ•์ธ) ์ฝœ๋กœ๋ผ๋„ ์ถœ์‹ ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฑด ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:54
So in short, the question we have tonight is,
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์š”์•ฝํ•˜์ž๋ฉด, ์˜ค๋Š˜๋ฐค ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š”
02:57
how do we understand this mega-change,
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์ด ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ์ดํ•ดํ•˜๋Š๋ƒ์ธ๋ฐ
03:00
which I believe to be the biggest change for the first half of the 21st century?
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์ €๋Š” ์ด๊ฒƒ์ด 21์„ธ๊ธฐ ์ „๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ์˜ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํฐ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ฏฟ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:05
It'll affect so many things.
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์•„์ฃผ ๋งŽ์€ ๊ฒƒ์— ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์น˜๊ณ 
03:08
It will go to the absolute core.
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์ ˆ๋Œ€์ ์ธ ํ•ต์‹ฌ์ด ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:10
It's happening quietly. It's happening persistently.
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์ด ๋ณ€ํ™”๋Š” ์กฐ์šฉํžˆ, ์ง€์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:12
It's happening in some senses under the radar,
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์–ด์ฐŒ๋ณด๋ฉด ๋ชจ๋ฅด๋Š” ์ƒˆ ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ
03:15
as we are all preoccupied with
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ ๋ชจ๋‘๋Š”
03:17
what's going in Ukraine, what's going on in the Middle East,
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์šฐํฌ๋ผ์ด๋‚˜ ๋ฌธ์ œ, ์ค‘๋™ ๋ฌธ์ œ
03:19
what's going on with ISIS, what's going on with ISIL,
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ISIS, ISIL ๋ฌธ์ œ,
03:22
what's happening with the future of our economies.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ ๊ฒฝ์ œ์˜ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ๋ฌธ์ œ์— ์‹ ๊ฒฝ์ด ์ ๋ ค์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:25
This is a slow and quiet revolution.
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์ด ๋ณ€ํ™”๋Š” ์กฐ์šฉํ•˜๊ณ  ๋Š๋ฆฐ ํ˜๋ช…์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:29
And with a mega-change comes also a mega-challenge,
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๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋Š” ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ๋ถˆ๋Ÿฌ์˜ต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:35
and the mega-challenge is this:
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๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š” ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:37
Can these two great countries,
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๋‘ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์ธ
03:39
China and the United States --
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์ค‘๊ตญ๊ณผ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด,
03:41
China,
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์ค‘๊ตญ์€
03:47
the Middle Kingdom,
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์ค‘์•™์— ์œ„์น˜ํ•œ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋ผ๋Š” ๋œป์ด๊ณ 
03:49
and the United States,
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€
03:54
Mฤ›iguรณ --
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์ค‘๊ตญ์–ด๋กœ, ๋ฉ”์ด๊ตฌ์–ด(๋ฏธ๊ตญ)์ธ๋ฐ
03:57
which in Chinese, by the way, means "the beautiful country."
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์•„๋ฆ„๋‹ค์šด ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋ผ๋Š” ๋œป์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:00
Think about that -- that's the name that China has given this country
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์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด ๋ณด์„ธ์š”. ์ค‘๊ตญ์ด ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์—๊ฒŒ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ด๋ฆ„์„ ๋ถ™์ธ ๊ฒƒ์ด
04:04
for more than a hundred years.
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๋ฐฑ ๋…„๋„ ๋„˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:06
Whether these two great civilizations, these two great countries,
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์ด ๋‘ ๊ฐœ์˜ ๋ฌธ๋ช…, ๋‘ ๊ฐœ์˜ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€
04:09
can in fact carve out a common future
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์ž์‹ ๊ณผ ์„ธ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•œ ๊ณต๋™์˜ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜๋ฅผ
04:14
for themselves and for the world?
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๋งŒ๋“ค ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
04:16
In short, can we carve out a future
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๋‹ค์‹œ ๋งํ•ด, ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ํ‰ํ™”๋กญ๊ฒŒ ์ƒํ˜ธ ๋ฒˆ์˜ํ•˜๋Š”
04:19
which is peaceful and mutually prosperous,
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๋ฏธ๋ž˜๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ค ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
04:23
or are we looking at a great challenge
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๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€ ์•Š์œผ๋ฉด, ์ „์Ÿ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ฉด ํ‰ํ™”์ธ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ๋งˆ์ฃผํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ ๊นŒ์š”?
04:24
of war or peace?
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04:27
And I have 15 minutes to work through war or peace,
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์ „์Ÿ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ฉด ํ‰ํ™”์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋‹ค๋ฃจ๋Š”๋ฐ 15๋ถ„์„ ์“ธ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋„ค์š”.
04:29
which is a little less time
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"์ „์Ÿ๊ณผ ํ‰ํ™”"์˜ ์ €์ž์—๊ฒŒ
04:33
than they gave this guy to write a book called "War and Peace."
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์ค€ ์‹œ๊ฐ„๋ณด๋‹ค ์•ฝ๊ฐ„ ๋” ์งง๋„ค์š”.
04:38
People ask me, why is it that a kid growing up in rural Australia
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์ €์—๊ฒŒ ์™œ ํ˜ธ์ฃผ์˜ ์‹œ๊ณจ์— ์‚ฌ๋Š” ์•„์ด๋“ค์ด ์ค‘๊ตญ์–ด๋ฅผ ๋ฐฐ์šฐ๋Š” ๋ฐ
04:42
got interested in learning Chinese?
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๊ด€์‹ฌ์ด ์ƒ๊ฒผ๋Š”์ง€ ๋ฌป์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:44
Well, there are two reasons for that.
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๋‘ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์ด์œ ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ์š”,
04:46
Here's the first of them.
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์ฒซ ๋ฒˆ์งธ๋Š” ์ด๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:47
That's Betsy the cow.
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์ด๊ฑด ์•”์†Œ ๋ฒณ์‹œ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:49
Now, Betsy the cow was one of a herd of dairy cattle
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๋ฒณ์‹œ๋Š” ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ž๋ž€ ํ˜ธ์ฃผ ์‹œ๊ณจ ๋†์žฅ์˜
04:53
that I grew up with on a farm in rural Australia.
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์ –์†Œ ์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:57
See those hands there? These are not built for farming.
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์ € ์† ๋ณด์ด๋‚˜์š”? ๋†์žฅ ์ผ์„ ์œ„ํ•œ ์†์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ์—์š”.
05:00
So very early on, I discovered that in fact, working in a farm
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๊ฑฐ์˜ ์ฒ˜์Œ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์ €๋Š”๋†์žฅ์—์„œ ์ผํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด
05:04
was not designed for me, and China was a very safe remove
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์ œ๊ฒŒ ๋งž์ง€ ์•Š๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฑธ ์•Œ์•˜๊ณ  ์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ํ˜ธ์ฃผ์˜ ๋†์žฅ ์ƒํ™œ์—์„œ
05:07
from any career in Australian farm life.
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๋ฒ—์–ด๋‚  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋งค์šฐ ์•ˆ์ „ํ•œ ๋„ํ”ผ์ฒ˜์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:10
Here's the second reason.
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๋‘ ๋ฒˆ์งธ ์ด์œ ๋Š” ์ด๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:12
That's my mom.
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05:12
Anyone here ever listen to what their mom told them to do?
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์ œ ์–ด๋จธ๋‹ˆ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
๋ชจ๋‘๋“ค ์–ด๋จธ๋‹ˆ ๋ง์”€์„ ์ž˜ ๋“ค์œผ์‹œ๋‚˜์š”?
05:15
Everyone ever do what their mom told them to do?
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์–ด๋จธ๋‹ˆ๊ฐ€ ํ•˜๋ผ๋Š” ๋Œ€๋กœ ํ•˜๊ณ ์š”?
05:18
I rarely did,
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์ €๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์˜ ์•ˆ ๊ทธ๋žฌ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:20
but what my mom said to me was,
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๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€๋งŒ ์–ด๋จธ๋‹ˆ๊ป˜์„œ๋Š”
05:22
one day, she handed me a newspaper,
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์–ด๋Š ๋‚ , ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ณ€ํ™”๊ฐ€ ์ฐพ์•„์™”๋‹ค๋Š”
05:25
a headline which said, here we have a huge change.
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ํ‘œ์ œ์˜ ์‹ ๋ฌธ์„ ๊ฑด๋„ค์…จ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:30
And that change is China entering the United Nations.
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์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ UN ๊ฐ€์ž…์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:36
1971, I had just turned 14 years of age,
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1971๋…„์— ์ œ๊ฐ€ 14์‚ด์ด ๋˜์—ˆ์„ ๋•Œ
05:39
and she handed me this headline.
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์–ด๋จธ๋‹ˆ๊ฐ€ ์ œ๊ฒŒ ์ด ๊ธฐ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ์ฃผ์‹œ๋ฉด์„œ,
05:41
And she said, "Understand this, learn this,
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๋งํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ, "์ด๊ฑธ ์ดํ•ดํ•˜๊ณ  ๋ฐฐ์šฐ๊ฑฐ๋ผ.
05:43
because it's going to affect your future."
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๋„ค ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์— ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์น  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค." ๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•˜์…จ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:46
So being a very good student of history,
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์ €๋Š” ์—ญ์‚ฌ ๊ณผ๋ชฉ์„ ์ž˜ํ•˜๋Š” ํ•™์ƒ์ด์—ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—
05:50
I decided that the best thing for me to do was, in fact,
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์ค‘๊ตญ์–ด๋ฅผ ๋ฐฐ์šฐ๋Š” ๊ฒŒ ์ œ๊ฒŒ ์ตœ์„ ์ผ ๊ฑฐ๋ผ ์ƒ๊ฐํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:53
to go off and learn Chinese.
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05:55
The great thing about learning Chinese
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์ค‘๊ตญ์–ด๋ฅผ ๋ฐฐ์šธ ๋•Œ ๋ฉ‹์ง„ ๊ฑด
05:57
is that your Chinese teacher gives you a new name.
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์ค‘๊ตญ์–ด ์„ ์ƒ๋‹˜์ด ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์ด๋ฆ„์„ ์ง€์–ด์ฃผ์‹ ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:00
And so they gave me this name:
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์ €๋„ ํ•˜๋‚˜ ๋ฐ›์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:03
Kรจ, which means to overcome or to conquer,
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์ •๋ณตํ•˜๋‹ค, ์ด๊ฒจ๋‚ด๋‹ค๋ผ๋Š” ๋œป์˜ '์ปค'์™€,
06:08
and Wรฉn, and that's the character for literature or the arts.
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๋ฌธํ•™์ด๋‚˜ ์˜ˆ์ˆ ์„ ๋œปํ•˜๋Š” '์›'์ด์—ˆ์ฃ .
06:13
Kรจ Wรฉn, Conqueror of the Classics.
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์ปค์›, ๊ณ ์ „๋ฌธํ•™์˜ ์ •๋ณต์ž.
06:17
Any of you guys called "Kevin"?
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"์ผ€๋นˆ"์ด๋ผ๋Š” ์ด๋ฆ„์„ ๊ฐ€์ง„ ๋ถ„์ด ์žˆ๋‚˜์š”?
06:20
It's a major lift from being called Kevin to be called Conqueror of the Classics.
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์ผ€๋นˆ์—์„œ ๊ณ ์ „๋ฌธํ•™์˜ ์ •๋ณต์ž๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ถˆ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ฑด ์ •๋ง ์—„์ฒญ๋‚œ ์Šน๊ฒฉ์ด์ฃ .
06:24
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
06:25
I've been called Kevin all my life.
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์ €๋Š” ํ‰์ƒ์„ ์ผ€๋นˆ์ด๋ผ ๋ถˆ๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:27
Have you been called Kevin all your life?
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ผ€๋นˆ๋ถ„๋“ค๋„ ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ๊ฐ€์š”?
06:29
Would you prefer to be called Conqueror of the Classics?
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๊ณ ์ „๋ฌธํ•™์˜ ์ •๋ณต์ž๋ผ๋Š” ๋ง์ด ๋” ๋งˆ์Œ์— ๋“œ์‹œ๋‚˜์š”?
06:32
And so I went off after that and joined the Australian Foreign Service,
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๊ทธ ํ›„์— ์ €๋Š” ํ˜ธ์ฃผ ์™ธ๋ฌด์„ฑ์—์„œ ์ผํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:36
but here is where pride -- before pride, there always comes a fall.
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์ž๋ถ€์‹ฌ์„ ๊ฐ€์งˆ ๋งŒํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๊ทธ ์ด์ „์— ๋ฐ˜๋“œ์‹œ ์ถ”๋ฝ์ด ์ฐพ์•„์˜ต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:43
So there I am in the embassy in Beijing,
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๋ถ๊ฒฝ ๋Œ€์‚ฌ๊ด€์— ์žˆ์„ ๋•Œ
06:45
off to the Great Hall of the People
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์ธ๋ฏผ๋Œ€ํšŒ๋‹น์œผ๋กœ ๋Œ€์‚ฌ์™€ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ๊ฐ€๋Š”๋ฐ,
06:47
with our ambassador, who had asked me to interpret for his first meeting
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๋Œ€์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ทธ์˜ ์ธ๋ฏผ๋Œ€ํšŒ๋‹น ์ฒซ ํšŒ์˜์˜
06:51
in the Great Hall of the People.
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ํ†ต์—ญ์„ ์ œ๊ฒŒ ๋ถ€ํƒํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:53
And so there was I.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๊ฑฐ๊ธฐ ๊ฐ”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:54
If you've been to a Chinese meeting, it's a giant horseshoe.
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์ค‘๊ตญ ํšŒ์˜์žฅ์— ๊ฐ€๋ณด์…จ๋‹ค๋ฉด ์•„์‹œ๊ฒ ์ง€๋งŒ ํฐ ๋ง๋ฐœ๊ตฝ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ์ƒ๊ฒผ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:57
At the head of the horsehoe are the really serious pooh-bahs,
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๋ง๋ฐœ๊ตฝ ๋งจ ์œ„์ชฝ์—๋Š” ์•„์ฃผ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์•‰๊ณ 
07:00
and down the end of the horseshoe are the not-so-serious pooh-bahs,
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๋์ชฝ์—๋Š” ๊ทธ๋‹ค์ง€ ์ค‘์š”ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์•‰์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:03
the junior woodchucks like me.
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์ €๊ฐ™์€ ํ•˜๊ธ‰์ธ์‚ฌ๋“ค์ด์ฃ .
07:05
And so the ambassador began with this inelegant phrase.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋‚˜์„œ ๋Œ€์‚ฌ๋Š” ์ดŒ์Šค๋Ÿฌ์šด ๋ง๋กœ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:08
He said, "China and Australia are currently enjoying a relationship
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๊ทธ๋Š” "์ค‘๊ตญ๊ณผ ํ˜ธ์ฃผ๋Š” ํ˜„์žฌ ์ „๋ก€์—†๋Š” ๊ฐ€๊นŒ์šด ๊ด€๊ณ„๋ฅผ
07:13
of unprecedented closeness."
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์ฆ๊ธฐ๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค." ๋ผ๊ณ  ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:16
And I thought to myself,
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์ €๋Š” ์Šค์Šค๋กœ ์ƒ๊ฐํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:18
"That sounds clumsy. That sounds odd.
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"์–ด์ƒ‰ํ•˜๊ณ  ์ด์ƒํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋“ค๋ ค.
07:22
I will improve it."
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๋‚ด๊ฐ€ ๋” ์ข‹๊ฒŒ ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด์•ผ์ง€"
07:24
Note to file: Never do that.
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์ ˆ๋Œ€ ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฉด ์•ˆ๋œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฑธ ์•Œ์•„๋‘์„ธ์š”.
07:27
It needed to be a little more elegant, a little more classical,
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๋ฌธ์žฅ์ด ์ข€ ๋” ์šฐ์•„ํ•˜๊ณ  ๊ณ ์ „์ ์ด์–ด์•ผ ํ–ˆ๊ธฐ์—
07:30
so I rendered it as follows.
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์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ํ‘œํ˜„ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:32
[In Chinese]
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[์ค‘๊ตญ์–ด]
07:37
There was a big pause on the other side of the room.
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ํšŒ์˜์‹ค ์ €ํŽธ์—์„œ ์ •์ ์ด ํ˜๋ €์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:40
You could see the giant pooh-bahs at the head of the horseshoe,
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๋ง๊ตฝ ์œ„ ์ชฝ์— ์•‰์€ ์ค‘์š” ์ธ์‚ฌ๋“ค์€
07:44
the blood visibly draining from their faces,
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๋ˆˆ์— ๋ณด์ผ ์ •๋„๋กœ ์–ผ๊ตด์ด ์ƒˆํ•˜์–˜์กŒ๊ณ 
07:47
and the junior woodchucks at the other end of the horseshoe
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๋ง๊ตฝ ์•„๋ž˜์ชฝ์— ์•‰์€ ํ•˜๊ธ‰์ธ์‚ฌ๋“ค์€
07:50
engaged in peals of unrestrained laughter.
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๋Œ€๋†“๊ณ  ํฌ๊ฒŒ ์›ƒ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:53
Because when I rendered his sentence,
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์ œ๊ฐ€ "ํ˜ธ์ฃผ์™€ ์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ์ „๋ก€์—†๋Š”
07:55
"Australia and China are enjoying a relationship
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๊ฐ€๊นŒ์šด ๊ด€๊ณ„๋ฅผ ์ฆ๊ธฐ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค"๋ฅผ
07:57
of unprecedented closeness,"
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ํ†ต์—ญํ–ˆ์„ ๋•Œ,
07:59
in fact, what I said was that Australia and China
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์‹ค์ œ๋กœ๋Š” ํ˜ธ์ฃผ์™€ ์ค‘๊ตญ์ด ์ด์ œ ํ™ฉํ™€ํ•œ ์˜ค๋ฅด๊ฐ€์ฆ˜์„
08:02
were now experiencing fantastic orgasm.
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๊ฒฝํ—˜ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋งํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:05
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
08:11
That was the last time I was asked to interpret.
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๊ทธ๊ฒŒ ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋ถ€ํƒ๋ฐ›์€ ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰ ํ†ต์—ญ์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:15
But in that little story, there's a wisdom, which is,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์ด ์งง์€ ์–˜๊ธฐ์— ์ง€ํ˜œ๊ฐ€ ๋‹ด๊ฒจ ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ
08:17
as soon as you think you know something about this extraordinary civilization
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5์ฒœ๋…„์˜ ์—ญ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง„ ์ด ํŠน๋ณ„ํ•œ ๋ฌธ๋ช…์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด
08:21
of 5,000 years of continuing history,
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์•Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•  ๋•Œ
08:23
there's always something new to learn.
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ํ•ญ์ƒ ์ƒˆ๋กœ ๋ฐฐ์šธ ๊ฒƒ์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:27
History is against us
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ๊ณผ ์ค‘๊ตญ์ด
08:29
when it comes to the U.S. and China
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๊ณต๋™์˜ ์—ญ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ™์ด ๊ตฌ์ถ•ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด
08:31
forging a common future together.
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๋ถ€์ •์ ์ธ ์‹œ๊ฐ์„ ๋ณด๋ƒ…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:34
This guy up here?
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์ด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ ๋ณด์ด์‹œ๋‚˜์š”?
08:35
He's not Chinese and he's not American.
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์ค‘๊ตญ์ธ๋„ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ธ๋„ ์•„๋‹Œ
08:37
He's Greek. His name's Thucydides.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ์Šค์ธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฆ„์€ ํˆฌํ‚ค๋””๋ฐ์Šค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:39
He wrote the history of the Peloponnesian Wars.
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ํŽ ๋กœํฐ๋„ค์†Œ์Šค ์ „์Ÿ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ์ €์ˆ ํ–ˆ์ฃ .
08:42
And he made this extraordinary observation
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์•„ํ…Œ๋„ค์™€ ์ŠคํŒŒ๋ฅดํƒ€์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ํ›Œ๋ฅญํ•œ ๋…ผํ‰์„ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:45
about Athens and Sparta.
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08:47
"It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this inspired in Sparta
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"์•„ํ…Œ๋„ค์˜ ๋ถ€ํฅ๊ณผ ์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ์ŠคํŒŒ๋ฅดํƒ€์—๊ฒŒ ์ค€ ๋‘๋ ค์›€๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—
08:50
that made war inevitable."
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์ „์Ÿ์ด ๋ถˆ๊ฐ€ํ”ผํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ผ์–ด๋‚œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค."
08:52
And hence, a whole literature about something called the Thucydides Trap.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์ด์œ ๋กœ 'ํˆฌํ‚ค๋””๋ฐ์Šค์˜ ํ•จ์ •'์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ๊ธ€์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:57
This guy here? He's not American and he's not Greek. He's Chinese.
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์ด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ธ๋„ ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ์Šค์ธ๋„ ์•„๋‹Œ ์ค‘๊ตญ์ธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:01
His name is Sun Tzu. He wrote "The Art of War,"
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์ด๋ฆ„์€ ์†์ž์ด๊ณ  "์†์ž๋ณ‘๋ฒ•"์„ ์ผ์ฃ .
09:03
and if you see his statement underneath, it's along these lines:
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ‘์— ์จ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ทธ๊ฐ€ ํ–ˆ๋˜ ๋ง์„ ๋ด…์‹œ๋‹ค.
09:07
"Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected."
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"์ ์ด ์ค€๋น„๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์€ ๊ณณ์„ ๊ณต๊ฒฉํ•˜๊ณ  ๊ทธ๋Œ€๋ฅผ ์˜ˆ์ƒ์น˜ ๋ชปํ•˜๋Š” ๊ณณ์— ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚˜๋ผ."
09:12
Not looking good so far for China and the United States.
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์ค‘๊ตญ๊ณผ ๋ฏธ๊ตญํ•œํ…Œ ์ข‹์•„๋ณด์ด์ง„ ์•Š๋„ค์š”.
09:16
This guy is an American. His name's Graham Allison.
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์ด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ธ์ด๊ณ  ์ด๋ฆ„์€ ๊ทธ๋ ˆ์ด์—„ ์•จ๋ฆฌ์Šจ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:19
In fact, he's a teacher at the Kennedy School
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์‚ฌ์‹ค ์ด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์€ ๋ณด์Šคํ„ด์— ์žˆ๋Š” ์ผ€๋„ค๋”” ํ•™๊ต ๊ต์‚ฌ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:21
over there in Boston.
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09:23
He's working on a single project at the moment, which is,
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๊ทธ๋Š” ํ•˜๋‚˜์˜ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๋งŒ ์—ฐ๊ตฌํ•˜๋Š” ์ค‘์ธ๋ฐ,
09:26
does the Thucydides Trap about the inevitably of war
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๋ถ€์ƒํ•˜๋Š” ์‹ ํฅ๊ฐ•๋Œ€๊ตญ๊ณผ ๊ธฐ์กด์˜ ๊ฐ•๋Œ€๊ตญ ์‚ฌ์ด์˜
09:29
between rising powers and established great powers
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์ „์Ÿ์˜ ๋ถˆ๊ฐ€ํ”ผ์„ฑ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ๋งํ•˜๋Š” ํˆฌ๋ฅดํ‚ค๋””๋ฐ์Šค ํ•จ์ •์ด
09:32
apply to the future of China-U.S. relations?
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๋ฏธ๋ž˜ ์ค‘๊ตญ๊ณผ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ๊ด€๊ณ„์—๋„ ํ•ด๋‹น๋˜๋Š”๊ฐ€? ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:35
It's a core question.
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ํ•ต์‹ฌ์ ์ธ ์งˆ๋ฌธ์ด์ฃ .
09:36
And what Graham has done is explore 15 cases in history
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๊ทธ๋ ˆ์ด์—„์€ ์ „๋ก€๋ฅผ ํ™•๋ฆฝํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด
09:40
since the 1500s
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์—ญ์‚ฌ์ƒ 1500๋…„๋Œ€ ์ดํ›„๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์ผ์–ด๋‚œ
09:43
to establish what the precedents are.
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15๊ฐœ์˜ ์‚ฌ๊ฑด์„ ํƒ๊ตฌํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:45
And in 11 out of 15 of them,
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15๊ฐœ ์ค‘์— 11๊ฐœ๋Š”
09:47
let me tell you,
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๋ง์”€๋“œ๋ฆฌ์ž๋ฉด,
09:49
they've ended in catastrophic war.
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ํŒŒ๋ฉธ์ ์ธ ์ „์Ÿ์œผ๋กœ ๋๋‚ฌ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:53
You may say, "But Kevin --
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์€ ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋งํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ฒ ์ฃ ,
ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ผ€๋นˆ, ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ฉด ๊ณ ์ „๋ฌธํ•™์˜ ์ •๋ณต์ž์”จ,
09:56
or Conqueror of the Classics --
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09:58
that was the past.
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๊ทธ๊ฑด ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ์˜ ์ผ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:00
We live now in a world of interdependence and globalization.
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์šฐ๋ฆฐ ์ง€๊ธˆ ์ƒํ˜ธ ์˜์กดํ•˜๋Š” ์„ธ๊ณ„ํ™”๋œ ์„ธ์ƒ์— ์‚ด๊ณ  ์žˆ์–ด์š”.
10:04
It could never happen again."
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๋‹ค์‹  ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜์ง€ ์•Š์„ ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ์–ด์š”."
10:05
Guess what?
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์žˆ์ž–์•„์š”,
10:06
The economic historians tell us that in fact,
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๊ฒฝ์ œ ์—ญ์‚ฌํ•™์ž๋“ค์€ ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์—๊ฒŒ
10:09
the time which we reached the greatest point
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ฒฝ์ œํ†ตํ•ฉ๊ณผ ์„ธ๊ณ„ํ™”์˜
10:11
of economic integration and globalization
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์ •์ ์— ๋„๋‹ฌํ–ˆ์„ ๋•Œ๋Š”
10:14
was in 1914,
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1914๋…„์œผ๋กœ
10:17
just before that happened, World War I,
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1์ฐจ ์„ธ๊ณ„๋Œ€์ „์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๊ธฐ ์ง์ „์ด์—ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:21
a sobering reflection from history.
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์ •์‹ ์ด ๋ฒˆ์ฉ๋“ค๊ฒŒ ํ•˜๋Š” ์—ญ์‚ฌ์ฃ .
10:24
So if we are engaged in this great question
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ค‘๊ตญ์ด ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๊ณ  ๋Š๋ผ๊ณ ,
10:27
of how China thinks, feels,
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์–ด๋–ค ์ž…์žฅ์„ ์ทจํ•˜๋Š”์ง€
10:30
and positions itself towards the United States,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์—ญ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ์–ด๋–ค์ง€์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ
10:34
and the reverse,
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์ด ์ปค๋‹ค๋ž€ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ๋‹ค๋ฃฌ๋‹ค๋ฉด
10:35
how do we get to the baseline
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๋‘ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์™€ ๋ฌธ๋ช…์ด ๋Œ€์ฒด ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ
10:37
of how these two countries and civilizations
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ํ˜‘๋ ฅํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ
10:40
can possibly work together?
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๊ธฐ์„ ์— ๋‹ค๋‹ค๋ฅผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
10:43
Let me first go to, in fact,
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์ค‘๊ตญ์ด ๋ฏธ๊ตญ๊ณผ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์„œ๊ตฌ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด
10:46
China's views of the U.S. and the rest of the West.
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์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๋Š”์ง€ ๋จผ์ € ๋ณด๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:48
Number one: China feels as if it's been humiliated
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์ฒซ์งธ: ์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ์•„ํŽธ์ „์Ÿ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•ด์„œ
10:51
at the hands of the West through a hundred years of history,
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๋ช‡ ๋ฐฑ๋…„์˜ ์—ญ์‚ฌ ์†์—์„œ ์„œ๊ตฌ์˜ ์†์—
10:54
beginning with the Opium Wars.
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๊ตด์š•์„ ๋‹นํ–ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋Š๋‚๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:56
When after that, the Western powers carved China up into little pieces,
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์•„ํŽธ์ „์Ÿ ์ดํ›„, ์„œ๊ตฌ์—ด๊ฐ•์€ ์ค‘๊ตญ์„ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์กฐ๊ฐ์œผ๋กœ ์ฐข์—ˆ๊ณ 
11:00
so that by the time it got to the '20s and '30s,
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20๋…„๋Œ€์™€ 30๋…„๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ๋˜์—ˆ์„ ๋•Œ๋Š”
11:02
signs like this one appeared on the streets of Shanghai.
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์ƒํ•ด์˜ ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ์— ์ด๋Ÿฐ ํ‘œ์ง€ํŒ์ด ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:05
["No dogs and Chinese allowed"]
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["๊ฐœ์™€ ์ค‘๊ตญ์ธ์€ ์ถœ์ž…๊ธˆ์ง€"]
11:06
How would you feel if you were Chinese,
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ์ค‘๊ตญ์ธ์ด์—ˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด ์–ด๋–ค ๊ธฐ๋ถ„์ด์—ˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
11:08
in your own country, if you saw that sign appear?
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์ž๊ธฐ ๋‚˜๋ผ์—์„œ ์ €๋Ÿฐ ํ‘œ์ง€ํŒ์„ ๋ดค๋‹ค๋ฉด์š”?
11:11
China also believes and feels
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๋˜ ์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋Š๋ผ๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:15
as if, in the events of 1919, at the Peace Conference in Paris,
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1919๋…„ ํŒŒ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ•ํ™”ํšŒ์˜์—์„œ
11:20
when Germany's colonies were given back
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๋…์ผ์˜ ์‹๋ฏผ์ง€๊ฐ€ ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„์˜
11:21
to all sorts of countries around in the world,
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์ˆ˜ ๋งŽ์€ ๋‚˜๋ผ์— ๋ฐ˜ํ™˜๋˜์—ˆ์„ ๋–„
11:24
what about German colonies in China?
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๋…์ผ ์•„๋ž˜์˜ ์ค‘๊ตญ ์‹๋ฏผ์ง€๋Š” ์–ด๋• ๋‚˜์š”?
11:25
They were, in fact, given to Japan.
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์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ์ผ๋ณธ์—๊ฒŒ ๋„˜๊ฒจ์กŒ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:28
When Japan then invaded China in the 1930s
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๊ทธ ํ›„์— ์ผ๋ณธ์ด 1930๋…„๋Œ€์— ์ค‘๊ตญ์„ ์นจ๊ณตํ–ˆ์„ ๋•Œ
11:32
the world looked away and was indifferent to what would happen to China.
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์„ธ๊ณ„๋Š” ๊ณ ๊ฐœ๋ฅผ ๋Œ๋ ธ๊ณ  ์ค‘๊ตญ์—์„œ ๋ฒŒ์–ด์ง„ ์ผ์— ๋ฌด๊ด€์‹ฌํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:36
And then, on top of that, the Chinese to this day believe
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋” ๋‚˜์•„๊ฐ€ ์ค‘๊ตญ์ธ๋“ค์€ ์˜ค๋Š˜๋‚ ๊นŒ์ง€๋„
11:39
that the United States and the West
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ๊ณผ ์„œ๊ตฌ๊ฐ€
11:40
do not accept the legitimacy of their political system
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์ž์œ  ๋ฏผ์ฃผ์ฃผ์˜๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง„ ์ž๊ธฐ๋“ค๊ณผ๋Š”
11:43
because it's so radically different from those of us who come
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๊ทผ๋ณธ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋‹ค๋ฅด๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ์ •์น˜ ์ฒด์ œ์˜ ์ ๋ฒ•์„ฑ์„
11:46
from liberal democracies,
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๋ฐ›์•„๋“ค์ด์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:47
and believe that the United States to this day is seeking
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด ์˜ค๋Š˜๋‚ ๊นŒ์ง€๋„ ์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ์ •์น˜ ์ฒด์ œ์˜ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์„
11:50
to undermine their political system.
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์•ฝํ™”์‹œํ‚ฌ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„ ์ฐพ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฏฟ์ฃ .
11:52
China also believes that it is being contained
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๋˜ ์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋™๋งน๊ตญ๊ณผ
11:55
by U.S. allies and by those with strategic partnerships with the U.S.
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ๊ณผ ์ „๋žต์  ์ œํœด๋ฅผ ๋งบ์€ ๋‚˜๋ผ๊ฐ€
12:00
right around its periphery.
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์ฃผ๋ณ€์—์„œ ์ž์‹ ์„ ๊ฒฌ์ œํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฏฟ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:03
And beyond all that, the Chinese have this feeling
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋ฌด์—‡๋ณด๋‹ค ์ค‘๊ตญ์€
12:05
in their heart of hearts and in their gut of guts
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๋งˆ์Œ ์† ๊นŠ์€ ๊ณณ์—์„œ ๋ณธ๋Šฅ์ ์œผ๋กœ
12:08
that those of us in the collective West
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์„œ๊ตฌ๊ถŒ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋“ค์ด ์ „์ฒด์ ์œผ๋กœ
12:13
are just too damned arrogant.
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๋„ˆ๋ฌด ๊ฑด๋ฐฉ์ง€๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋Š๋ผ๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:16
That is, we don't recognize the problems in our own system,
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์ฆ‰, ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ž์‹ ์˜ ์ •์น˜์ , ๊ฒฝ์ œ์  ์ฒด์ œ ์•ˆ์˜
12:20
in our politics and our economics,
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๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ์ธ์‹ํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜๊ณ 
12:22
and are very quick to point the finger elsewhere,
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๋„ˆ๋ฌด ๊ธ‰ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋‚จ์˜ ํƒ“์œผ๋กœ ๋Œ๋ฆฐ๋‹ค๊ณ ,
12:25
and believe that, in fact, we in the collective West
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์„œ๊ตฌ์ธ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์‚ฌ์‹ค์ƒ
12:28
are guilty of a great bunch of hypocrisy.
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์ปค๋‹ค๋ž€ ์œ„์„ ๋ฉ์–ด๋ฆฌ๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ฏฟ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:32
Of course, in international relations,
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๋ฌผ๋ก , ๊ตญ์ œ ๊ด€๊ณ„์—์„œ
12:36
it's not just the sound of one hand clapping.
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์†๋ผ‰๋„ ๋งˆ์ฃผ์ณ์•ผ ์†Œ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋‚ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:40
There's another country too, and that's called the U.S.
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๋‚˜๋ผ๊ฐ€ ํ•˜๋‚˜ ๋” ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๋‚˜๋ผ์ฃ .
12:42
So how does the U.S. respond to all of the above?
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๊ทธ๋Ÿผ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ์ € ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฒƒ์— ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๋ฐ˜์‘ํ• ๊นŒ์š”?
12:45
The U.S. has a response to each of those.
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ๊ฐ๊ฐ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋‹ต๋ณ€์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:47
On the question of is the U.S. containing China,
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด ์ค‘๊ตญ์„ ๊ฒฌ์ œํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ์งˆ๋ฌธ์— ๊ด€ํ•ด์„œ
12:49
they say, "No, look at the history of the Soviet Union. That was containment."
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ "์•„๋‹ˆ์•ผ, ์†Œ๋ จ์˜ ์—ญ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ๋ด. ๊ทธ๊ฒŒ ๋ฐ”๋กœ ๊ฒฌ์ œ์•ผ."๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:53
Instead, what we have done in the U.S. and the West
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๊ทธ์— ๋น„ํ•ด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์„œ๊ตฌ์™€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์€
12:55
is welcome China into the global economy,
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์ค‘๊ตญ์„ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ๊ฒฝ์ œ์— ๋“ค์–ด์˜จ ๊ฒƒ์„ ํ™˜์˜ํ•ด์ค€ ๊ฑฐ์•ผ.
12:57
and on top of that, welcome them into the World Trade Organization.
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๋ฟ๋งŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ WTO์— ๋“ค์–ด์˜จ ๊ฒƒ๋„ ํ™˜์˜ํ•ด์ฃผ์—ˆ์ง€.
13:01
The U.S. and the West say China cheats
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ๊ณผ ์„œ๊ตฌ๋Š” ์ง€์ ์žฌ์‚ฐ๊ถŒ ๋ฌธ์ œ์— ๊ด€ํ•ด์„œ๋Š”
13:03
on the question of intellectual property rights,
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์ค‘๊ตญ์ด ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๊ธฐ์—…๊ณผ ๋‹ค๊ตญ์  ๊ธฐ์—…์„
13:05
and through cyberattacks on U.S. and global firms.
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์‚ฌ์ด๋ฒ„ ์ƒ์—์„œ ๊ณต๊ฒฉํ•จ์œผ๋กœ์จ ์†์ž„์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์“ด๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:09
Furthermore, the United States says that the Chinese political system
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๋‚˜์•„๊ฐ€, ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ์ค‘๊ตญ ์ •์น˜ ์ฒด์ œ๊ฐ€
13:13
is fundamentally wrong
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ๊ณผ ์„œ๊ตฌ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ๋ˆ„๋ฆฌ๋Š”
13:16
because it's at such fundamental variance
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์ธ๊ถŒ, ๋ฏผ์ฃผ์ฃผ์˜, ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ตญ๋ฒ•๊ณผ
13:19
to the human rights, democracy, and rule of law that we enjoy
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๋ณธ์งˆ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ƒ์ถฉ๋˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—
13:22
in the U.S. and the collective West.
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๊ทผ๋ณธ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ž˜๋ชป๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:25
And on top of all the above, what does the United States say?
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๊ทธ ์™ธ์—๋„ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ๋ฌด์Šจ ์ฃผ์žฅ์„ ํ• ๊นŒ์š”?
13:28
That they fear that China will, when it has sufficient power,
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€, ์ค‘๊ตญ์ด ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํ•œ ํž˜์„ ๊ฐ–๊ฒŒ๋˜๋ฉด ๋™๋‚จ์•„์‹œ์•„์™€, ๋” ๋„“๊ฒŒ๋Š” ๋™์•„์‹œ์•„์—
13:33
establish a sphere of influence in Southeast Asia and wider East Asia,
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์˜ํ–ฅ๊ถŒ์„ ํ˜•์„ฑํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์„ ์ซ“์•„๋‚ด๊ณ 
13:37
boot the United States out,
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์–ธ์  ๊ฐ€ ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํžˆ ๊ฐ•ํ•ด์ง€๋ฉด
13:39
and in time, when it's powerful enough,
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์„ธ๊ณ„ ์งˆ์„œ์˜ ๊ทœ์น™๊นŒ์ง€
13:41
unilaterally seek to change the rules of the global order.
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์ผ๋ฐฉ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐ”๊พธ๋ ค๊ณ  ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋‘๋ ค์›Œํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:45
So apart from all of that, it's just fine and dandy,
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ๋งŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ฉด ๋ฏธ๊ตญ๊ณผ ์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ๊ด€๊ณ„๋Š” ๋‹ค ๊ดœ์ฐฎ๊ณ  ์ข‹์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:48
the U.S.-China relationship.
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13:49
No real problems there.
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์‹ค์งˆ์ ์ธ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋„ ์—†์ฃ .
13:52
The challenge, though, is given those deep-rooted feelings,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋‹น๋ฉดํ•œ ๊ณผ์ œ๋Š” ๊นŠ์ˆ™ํžˆ ์ž๋ฆฌ์žก์€ ํƒœ๋„์™€
13:56
those deep-rooted emotions and thought patterns,
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๊ฐ์ •๊ณผ, ์ƒ๊ฐ ํŒจํ„ด,
13:59
what the Chinese call "Sฤซwรฉi," ways of thinking,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ ์ค‘๊ตญ์–ด๋กœ "์“ฐ์›จ์ด" ๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•˜๋Š” ์‚ฌ๊ณ ๋ฐฉ์‹์„ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•  ๋–„
14:02
how can we craft a basis for a common future between these two?
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๋‘ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์‚ฌ์ด์— ๊ณต๋™์˜ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•œ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์„ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๋งŒ๋“œ๋Š”์ง€ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:07
I argue simply this:
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์ €๋Š” ๊ทธ์ € ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ์ฃผ์žฅํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:08
We can do it on the basis on a framework
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๊ณต๋™์˜ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•œ
14:10
of constructive realism for a common purpose.
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๊ฑด์„ค์  ํ˜„์‹ค์ฃผ์˜ ๊ด€์ ์„ ํ† ๋Œ€๋กœ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ ์š”.
14:15
What do I mean by that?
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์ด๊ฒŒ ๋ฌด์Šจ ๋œป์ผ๊นŒ์š”?
14:17
Be realistic about the things that we disagree on,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์˜๊ฒฌ์ด ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ถ€๋ถ„๊ณผ ์ฐจ์ด๋กœ ์ธํ•ด
14:19
and a management approach that doesn't enable
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์ „์Ÿ์ด๋‚˜ ๊ฐˆ๋“ฑ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š” ๊ด€๋ฆฌ์ ‘๊ทผ๋ฒ•์— ๊ด€ํ•ด,
14:21
any one of those differences to break into war or conflict
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์ด ๋ฌธ์ œ๋“ค์„ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์™ธ๊ต์ˆ ์„ ํ„ฐ๋“ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์ „๊นŒ์ง„
14:24
until we've acquired the diplomatic skills to solve them.
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ํ˜„์‹ค์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:28
Be constructive in areas of the bilateral, regional and global engagement
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๋‘ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์‚ฌ์ด์— ์ „์ธ๋ฅ˜์— ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์น 
14:32
between the two,
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์–‘๊ตญ์˜, ์ง€์—ญ์ , ์„ธ๊ณ„์ 
14:33
which will make a difference for all of humankind.
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์ฐธ์—ฌ๊ฐ€ ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ๋ถ€๋ถ„์—์„œ ๊ฑด์„ค์ ์œผ๋กœ ํ–‰๋™ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:36
Build a regional institution capable of cooperation in Asia,
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์•„์‹œ์•„์˜ ํ˜‘๋ ฅ์„ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜๊ฒŒ ํ•˜๋Š” ์•„์‹œ์•„ ํƒœํ‰์–‘ ๊ณต๋™์ฒด์ธ
14:40
an Asia-Pacific community.
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์ง€์—ญ๊ธฐ๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“œ๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:42
And worldwide, act further,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์„ธ๊ณ„์ ์œผ๋กœ๋Š”
14:44
like you've begun to do at the end of last year
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ์ž‘๋…„ ๋ง์— ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™” ๋ฌธ์ œ์— ๋งž์„œ ์‹ธ์šด ๊ฒƒ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ์š”.
14:47
by striking out against climate change
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14:49
with hands joined together rather than fists apart.
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์ฃผ๋จน์„ ์ฅ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋ณด๋‹ค ์†์„ ๋งž์žก๊ณ  ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
14:53
Of course, all that happens if you've got a common mechanism
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๋ฌผ๋ก  ์ด ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฒƒ์€ ๊ณต๋™ ๊ธฐ์ œ์™€ ์œ„์— ์–ธ๊ธ‰ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์„ ์„ฑ์ทจํ•˜๋ ค๋Š”
14:56
and political will to achieve the above.
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์ •์น˜์  ์˜์ง€๋งŒ ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉด ์ด๋ฃจ์–ด์งˆ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:58
These things are deliverable.
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์ผ์–ด๋‚  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์ด์ฃ .
15:01
But the question is, are they deliverable alone?
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š” ํ˜ผ์ž์„œ ์ด๋ฃฐ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋ƒ๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:05
This is what our head tells us we need to do,
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์ด๊ฑด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๋จธ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ํ•ด์•ผํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋งํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์ง€๋งŒ
15:07
but what about our heart?
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๋งˆ์Œ๋„ ๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋งํ•˜๋‚˜์š”?
15:09
I have a little experience in the question back home
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์ €๋Š” ํ˜ธ์ฃผ์—์„œ ๋‘ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์„ ํ˜‘๋ ฅํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋งŒ๋“œ๋Š”
15:12
of how you try to bring together two peoples
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๋ฌธ์ œ์— ๊ด€ํ•ด ๊ฒฝํ—˜ํ•œ ์ ์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:16
who, frankly, haven't had a whole lot in common in the past.
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์†”์งํžˆ ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ์— ๊ณตํ†ต์ ์ด ๋งŽ์ด ์—†๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด์—ˆ์ฃ .
15:19
And that's when I apologized to Australia's indigenous peoples.
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ํ˜ธ์ฃผ ์›์ฃผ๋ฏผ์—๊ฒŒ ์‚ฌ๊ณผํ–ˆ์„ ๋•Œ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:23
This was a day of reckoning in the Australian government,
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ํ˜ธ์ฃผ์˜ ์ •๋ถ€์™€ ๊ตญํšŒ, ๊ตญ๋ฏผ์—๊ฒŒ
15:27
the Australian parliament, and for the Australian people.
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์‹ฌํŒ์˜ ๋‚ ์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:29
After 200 years of unbridled abuse towards the first Australians,
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200๋…„ ๋™์•ˆ์ด๋‚˜ ์›์ฃผ๋ฏผ๋“ค์„ ํ•™๋Œ€ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋‹จ์†ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜์—ˆ๋Š”๋ฐ
15:34
it was high time that we white folks said we were sorry.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ ๋ฐฑ์ธ๋“ค์ด ์ž˜๋ชปํ–ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋งํ•ด์•ผ ํ•  ๋•Œ์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:39
The important thing --
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์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์€
15:41
(Applause)
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(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
15:46
The important thing that I remember is staring in the faces
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ๊ธฐ์–ตํ•˜๋Š” ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์€ ์ด ์‚ฌ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋“ค์œผ๋Ÿฌ ์˜จ
15:49
of all those from Aboriginal Australia
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๋ชจ๋“  ํ˜ธ์ฃผ ์›์ฃผ๋ฏผ๋“ค์˜
15:51
as they came to listen to this apology.
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์–ผ๊ตด์„ ๋ฐ”๋ผ๋ณธ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:54
It was extraordinary to see, for example,
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ํŠน๋ณ„ํ•œ ๊ฒฝํ—˜์ด์—ˆ๋Š”๋ฐ, ์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค์–ด
15:58
old women telling me the stories of when they were five years old
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์–ด๋–ค ํ• ๋จธ๋‹ˆ๊ฐ€ ๊ทธ๋“ค์ด 5์‚ด์ด์—ˆ์„ ๋•Œ ๊ทธ๋…€๋ฅผ ๋ถ€๋ชจ์—๊ฒŒ์„œ
16:02
and literally ripped away from their parents,
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๋ง ๊ทธ๋Œ€๋กœ ๊ฐˆ๋ผ ๋†“์•˜๋˜ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋“ค๋ ค์ฃผ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:05
like this lady here.
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์ด ์ˆ™๋…€๋ถ„๋„ ๊ฐ™์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:06
It was extraordinary for me to then be able to embrace
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์˜ํšŒ ๊ฑด๋ฌผ๋กœ ์˜จ ์›์ฃผ๋ฏผ์˜ ์žฅ๋กœ๋ฅผ ๊ปด์•ˆ๊ณ 
16:10
and to kiss Aboriginal elders as they came into the parliament building,
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์ž…์„ ๋งž์ถ˜ ๊ฒƒ๋„ ํŠน๋ณ„ํ•œ ๊ฒฝํ—˜์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:14
and one woman said to me,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ํ•œ ์—ฌ์„ฑ์ด ์ œ๊ฒŒ ๋งํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:16
it's the first time a white fella had ever kissed her in her life,
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๊ทธ๋…€์˜ ์ธ์ƒ์—์„œ ๋ฐฑ์ธ์ด ์ž…์„ ๋งž์ถ˜ ๊ฑด ์ฒ˜์Œ์ด๋ผ๊ณ ์š”.
16:19
and she was over 70.
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๊ทธ๋…€๋Š” 70์„ธ๊ฐ€ ๋„˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:21
That's a terrible story.
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๋”์ฐํ•œ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ์ฃ .
16:23
And then I remember this family saying to me,
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๊ทธ ๋•Œ์— ์ด ๊ฐ€์กฑ์ด ์ €์—๊ฒŒ ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋งํ•œ ๊ธฐ์–ต์ด ๋‚ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:26
"You know, we drove all the way from the far North down to Canberra
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"์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์—ฌ๊ธฐ ์ฐธ์„ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ์ € ๋จผ ๋ถ์ชฝ์—์„œ
16:30
to come to this thing,
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๋‚จ์ชฝ์— ์žˆ๋Š” ์บ”๋ฒ„๋ผ๊นŒ์ง€ ์šด์ „ํ•ด ์™”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:31
drove our way through redneck country.
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๋ฐฑ์ธ ์šฐ์›”์ฃผ์˜๊ฐ€ ๋งŒ์—ฐํ•œ ์‹œ๊ณจ์„ ๊ฑฐ์ณ ์™”์ฃ .
16:33
On the way back, stopped at a cafe after the apology for a milkshake."
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์‚ฌ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ›๊ณ  ๋Œ์•„์˜ค๋Š” ๊ธธ์— ๋ฐ€ํฌ์…ฐ์ดํฌ๋ฅผ ๋งˆ์‹œ๋Ÿฌ ์นดํŽ˜์— ๋“ค๋ €์–ด์š”."
16:40
And they walked into this cafe quietly, tentatively, gingerly,
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์กฐ์šฉํžˆ, ๋จธ๋ญ‡๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ๋ฉฐ ์กฐ์‹ฌ์Šค๋ ˆ ์นดํŽ˜๋กœ ๋“ค์–ด๊ฐ”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:46
a little anxious.
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์•ฝ๊ฐ„ ๋ถˆ์•ˆํ•ดํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ์š”.
16:47
I think you know what I'm talking about.
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋ฌด์—‡์„ ๋งํ•˜๋Š”์ง€ ์•„์‹ค ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
16:50
But the day after the apology, what happened?
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ๋ฐ ์‚ฌ๊ณผํ•œ ๋‚  ์ดํ›„์— ๋ฌด์Šจ ์ผ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚ฌ์„๊นŒ์š”?
16:53
Everyone in that cafe, every one of the white folks,
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๊ทธ ์นดํŽ˜์— ์žˆ๋˜ ๋ฐฑ์ธ ๋ชจ๋‘๊ฐ€
16:57
stood up and applauded.
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์ผ์–ด์„œ์„œ ๋ฐ•์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์ณค์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:00
Something had happened in the hearts of these people in Australia.
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ํ˜ธ์ฃผ์ธ๋“ค์˜ ๋งˆ์Œ์—์„œ ๋ฌด์–ธ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ์ผ์–ด๋‚œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:05
The white folks, our Aboriginal brothers and sisters,
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๋ฐฑ์ธ๊ณผ, ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์›์ฃผ๋ฏผ ํ˜•์ œ ์ž๋งค๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
17:08
and we haven't solved all these problems together,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ด ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ™์ด ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•˜์ง„ ์•Š์•˜์ง€๋งŒ
17:11
but let me tell you, there was a new beginning
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์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์‹œ์ž‘์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:15
because we had gone not just to the head,
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๋จธ๋ฆฌ๋กœ๋งŒ ๋Š๋‚€ ๊ฒŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ
17:17
we'd gone also to the heart.
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๋งˆ์Œ์œผ๋กœ๋„ ๋Š๊ผˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:20
So where does that conclude in terms of the great question
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฉด ์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์˜ค๋Š˜๋ฐค ๋‹ค๋ฃจ๊ณ ์ž ํ•œ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ฌธ์ œ์ธ
17:23
that we've been asked to address this evening,
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ๊ณผ ์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ๊ด€๊ณ„์˜ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์— ๊ด€ํ•ด
17:25
which is the future of U.S.-China relations?
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์–ด๋–ค ๊ฒฐ๋ก ์„ ์ œ์‹œํ• ๊นŒ์š”?
17:28
The head says there's a way forward.
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๋จธ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์•ž์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜๊ฐˆ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ธธ์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:30
The head says there is a policy framework, there's a common narrative,
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์ด ์ผ์„ ํ•ด๋‚ด๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ๋” ๋‚˜์€ ์ƒํ™ฉ์„ ์œ„ํ•œ
17:34
there's a mechanism through regular summitry
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์ •์ฑ… ํ‹€์ด ์žˆ๊ณ  ๊ณต๋™์˜ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ
17:36
to do these things and to make them better.
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์ •๊ธฐ์  ํšŒ๋‹ด์„ ํ†ตํ•œ ๊ธฐ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:38
But the heart must also find a way to reimagine the possibilities
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋งˆ์Œ๋„ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ๊ณผ ์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ๊ด€๊ณ„์˜ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ๊ณผ
17:43
of the America-China relationship,
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์ค‘๊ตญ์ด ์„ธ๊ณ„ ๋ฌธ์ œ์— ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์— ์ฐธ์—ฌํ•  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์„
17:45
and the possibilities of China's future engagement in the world.
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๋‹ค์‹œ ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„ ์ฐพ์•„์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:49
Sometimes, folks, we just need to take a leap of faith
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๊ฐ€๋” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ฏฟ์Œ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ๊ทธ๋ƒฅ ๋›ฐ์–ด๋“ค์–ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
17:55
not quite knowing where we might land.
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์–ด๋””์— ์ฐฉ์ง€ํ•  ์ง€ ์ž˜ ๋ชจ๋ฅด๋Š” ์ฑ„๋กœ์š”.
17:59
In China, they now talk about the Chinese Dream.
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์ค‘๊ตญ์—์„œ๋Š” ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์ด์ œ ์ฐจ์ด๋‹ˆ์ฆˆ ๋“œ๋ฆผ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์–˜๊ธฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
18:03
In America, we're all familiar with the term "the American Dream."
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์šฐ๋ฆฐ ๋ชจ๋‘ "์•„๋ฉ”๋ฆฌ์นธ ๋“œ๋ฆผ"์ด๋ž€ ๋‹จ์–ด์— ์ต์ˆ™ํ•˜์ฃ .
18:09
I think it's time, across the world,
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์ €๋Š” ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„์—์„œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€
18:12
that we're able to think also of something we might also call
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์ธ๋ฅ˜ ๋ชจ๋‘๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•œ ๊ฟˆ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ถ€๋ฅผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”
18:17
a dream for all humankind.
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๋•Œ๊ฐ€ ์™”๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ชจ๋“  ์ธ๋ฅ˜๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•œ ๊ฟˆ์ด์š”.
18:23
Because if we do that,
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๋งŒ์•ฝ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ๋‹ค๋ฉด
18:25
we might just change the way
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์„œ๋กœ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉ์‹์„ ๋ฐ”๊ฟ€ ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ์œผ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ์š”.
18:27
that we think about each other.
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18:35
[In Chinese]
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[์ค‘๊ตญ์–ด]
18:39
That's my challenge to America. That's my challenge to China.
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๊ทธ๊ฒŒ ์ €์˜ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ณผ์ œ๊ณ  ์ค‘๊ตญ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ณผ์ œ์ด๋ฉฐ
18:42
That's my challenge to all of us,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ ๋ชจ๋‘์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ณผ์ œ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
18:44
but I think where there's a will and where there is imagination
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์ €๋Š” ์ƒ์ƒ๊ณผ ์˜์ง€๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ณณ์—์„œ
18:48
we can turn this into a future
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ํ‰ํ™”์™€ ํ’์š”๋กœ ์›€์ง์ด๊ณ 
18:50
driven by peace and prosperity
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์ „์Ÿ์˜ ๋น„๊ทน์„ ๋‘ ๋ฒˆ ๋‹ค์‹œ ๋ฐ˜๋ณตํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”
18:52
and not once again repeat
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18:54
the tragedies of war.
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๋ฏธ๋ž˜๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ค ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
18:56
I thank you.
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๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
18:58
(Applause)
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(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
19:03
Chris Anderson: Thanks so much for that. Thanks so much for that.
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค: ๊ฐ•์—ฐ ์ •๋ง ๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:07
It feels like you yourself have a role to play in this bridging.
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๋‹น์‹ ์€ ์–‘๊ตญ ์‚ฌ์ด์— ๋‹ค๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ๋†“๋Š” ๋ฐ ์—ญํ• ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™์•„์š”.
19:11
You, in a way, are uniquely placed to speak to both sides.
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์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๋ณด๋ฉด ์–‘๊ตญ์„ ๋ชจ๋‘ ๋Œ€๋ณ€ํ•˜๋Š” ํŠน์ดํ•œ ์œ„์น˜์— ์žˆ์œผ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ์š”.
19:16
Kevin Rudd: Well, what we Australians do best is organize the drinks,
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์ผ€๋นˆ: ํ˜ธ์ฃผ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์ œ์ผ ์ž˜ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์ˆ ์„ ๋งˆ์‹œ๋Š” ์ˆœ์„œ๋ฅผ ์ •ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:19
so you get them together in one room, and we suggest this and suggest that,
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ํ•œ ๋ฐฉ์— ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ™์ด ๋ชจ์•„๋†“์œผ๋ฉด ์ด ์ˆ  ์ € ์ˆ  ์ถ”์ฒœํ•ด์ฃผ๊ณ  ๋งˆ์‹œ์ฃ .
19:22
then we go and get the drinks.
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19:24
But no, look, for all of us who are friends
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๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€๋งŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ์—์š”. ๋ฏธ๊ตญ๊ณผ ์ค‘๊ตญ,
19:26
of these two great countries, America and China,
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์–‘ ๋Œ€๊ตญ์˜ ์นœ๊ตฌ์ธ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ๋ชจ๋‘ ๋‹ค ๋ฌด์–ธ๊ฐ€๋ฅผ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์–ด์š”.
19:28
you can do something.
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19:29
You can make a practical contribution,
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์‹ค์งˆ์ ์ธ ๊ธฐ์—ฌ๋„ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:32
and for all you good folks here,
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ ๊ณ„์‹  ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ถ„๋“ค๊ป˜
19:34
next time you meet someone from China,
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๋‹ค์Œ์— ์ค‘๊ตญ์ธ์„ ๋งŒ๋‚˜๋ฉด ์•‰์•„์„œ ๋Œ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ๋‚˜๋ˆ„์„ธ์š”.
19:35
sit down and have a conversation.
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19:37
See what you can find out about where they come from and what they think,
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๊ทธ๋“ค์˜ ์ถœ์‹ ๊ณผ ์ƒ๊ฐ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ๋ฌด์—‡์„ ์•Œ์•„๋‚ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€ ๋ณด์„ธ์š”.
19:40
and my challenge for all the Chinese folks
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์ด ๊ฐ•์—ฐ์„ ๊ฐ™์€ ์‹œ๊ฐ์— ๋ณด๊ณ  ์žˆ์„
19:42
who are going to watch this TED Talk at some time
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์ค‘๊ตญ์ธ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„๊ป˜ ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋“œ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ณผ์ œ๋„ ๋˜‘๊ฐ™์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:45
is do the same.
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19:47
Two of us seeking to change the world can actually make a huge difference.
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๋‘ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ์„ธ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๋ณ€ํ™”์‹œํ‚ค๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ํ•˜๋Š” ๋…ธ๋ ฅ์€ ํฐ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ค ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:51
Those of us up the middle, we can make a small contribution.
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๊ฐ€์šด๋ฐ์— ์žˆ๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์ž‘์€ ๊ธฐ์—ฌ๋ฅผ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์ฃ .
19:54
CA: Kevin, all power to you, my friend. Thank you.
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ํฌ๋ฆฌ์Šค: ์ผ€๋นˆ, ์ˆ˜๊ณ ํ•˜์…จ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
19:56
KR: Thank you. Thank you, folks.
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์ผ€๋นˆ: ๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„.
19:58
(Applause)
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(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
์ด ์›น์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์ •๋ณด

์ด ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๋Š” ์˜์–ด ํ•™์Šต์— ์œ ์šฉํ•œ YouTube ๋™์˜์ƒ์„ ์†Œ๊ฐœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ์„ ์ƒ๋‹˜๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์น˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์—…์„ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ๋™์˜์ƒ ํŽ˜์ด์ง€์— ํ‘œ์‹œ๋˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ” ํด๋ฆญํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ณณ์—์„œ ๋™์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋น„๋””์˜ค ์žฌ์ƒ์— ๋งž์ถฐ ์ž๋ง‰์ด ์Šคํฌ๋กค๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜๊ฒฌ์ด๋‚˜ ์š”์ฒญ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ด ๋ฌธ์˜ ์–‘์‹์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.

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