Jeff Bezos: The electricity metaphor

Prevoditelj: Mislav Ante Omazić - EFZG Recezent: Tilen Pigac - EFZG

When you think about resilience and technology it's actually much easier.

Kada razmislite o elastičnosti i tehnologiji to je zapravo puno lakše.

You're going to see some other speakers today, I already know,

Danas ćete vidjeti neke druge govornike, to znam,

who are going to talk about breaking-bones stuff,

koji će govoriti o lomljenju kostiju,

and, of course, with technology it never is.

i, naravno, s tehnologijom to nikada nije slučaj.

So it's very easy, comparatively speaking, to be resilient.

Tako da je vrlo jednostavno, relativno govoreći, biti elastičan.

I think that, if we look at what happened on the Internet,

Ako pogledamo na ono što se dogodilo na Internetu --

with such an incredible last half a dozen years,

s takvim nevjerojatnim razvojem u posljednjih šest godina

that it's hard to even get the right analogy for it.

da je teško čak i osmisliti pravu analogiju za to.

A lot of how we decide, how we're supposed to react to things

Puno toga kako odlučujemo, kako trebamo reagirati na stvari

and what we're supposed to expect about the future

i ono što bismo trebali očekivati ​​o budućnosti

depends on how we bucket things

ovisi o tome kako promatramo stvari

and how we categorize them.

i kako ih kategoriziramo.

And so I think the tempting analogy for the boom-bust

I tako mislim da je najbliža analogija za boom-eksploziju

that we just went through with the Internet is a gold rush.

da je ono što smo upravo prošli s Internetom, zlatna groznica.

It's easy to think of this analogy as very different

Jednostavno je misliti na ovu analogiju kao vrlo različitu

from some of the other things you might pick.

od nekih drugih stvari koje ste mogli pokupiti.

For one thing, both were very real.

Međutim, obje su vrlo stvarne.

In 1849, in that Gold Rush, they took over $700 million

1849. u tom Gold Rush, su uzeli preko 700 milijuna dolara

worth of gold out of California. It was very real.

vrijednog zlata iz Kalifornije. To je bilo vrlo stvarno.

The Internet was also very real. This is a real way for humans to

Internet je također bio jako realan. Ovo je pravi način za ljude da

communicate with each other. It's a big deal.

komuniciraju jedni s drugima. To je velika stvar.

Huge boom. Huge boom. Huge bust. Huge bust.

Ogroman bum. Ogroman bum. Ogromna eksplozija. Ogromna eksplozija.

You keep going, and both things are lots of hype.

Možete ići dalje, a obje su stvari jako naelektrizirane.

I don't have to remind you of all the hype

Ne moram vas podsjećati na svu strku

that was involved with the Internet -- like GetRich.com.

koja se događala s Internetom - poput GetRich.com.

But you had the same thing with the Gold Rush. "Gold. Gold. Gold."

Istu stvar ste imali sa Zlatnom groznicom. "Zlato. Zlato. Zlato."

Sixty-eight rich men on the Steamer Portland. Stacks of yellow metal.

68 bogatih ljudi na parobrodu Portland. Hrpe žutog metala.

Some have 5,000. Many have more.

Neki imaju pet tisuća. Mnogi imaju više.

A few bring out 100,000 dollars each.

Nekoliko je donijelo po 100.000 dolara.

People would get very excited about this when they read these articles.

Ljudi će se jako uzbuditi kada će čitati te članke.

"The Eldorado of the United States of America:

Eldorado iz Sjedinjenih Američkih Država.

the discovery of inexhaustible gold mines in California."

Otkriće neiscrpnih rudnika zlata u Kaliforniji.

And the parallels between the Gold Rush and the Internet Rush continue very strongly.

Paralele između Zlatne groznice i Internet groznice i dalje su vrlo snažne.

So many people left what they were doing.

Dakle, mnogo ljudi je ostavilo ono što su radili.

And what would happen is -- and the Gold Rush went on for years.

A ono što će se dogoditi -- a Zlatna groznica je trajala godinama.

People on the East Coast in 1849, when they first started to get the news,

Kada su ljudi na istočnoj obali 1849. prvi put počeli dobivati vijesti,

they thought, "Ah, this isn't real."

mislili su: "Ah, to nije stvarno."

But they keep hearing about people getting rich,

Ali sve veći broj ljudi je postajao bogat,

and then in 1850 they still hear that. And they think it's not real.

a zatim su u 1850. i dalje slušali o tome. I dalje su mislili kako to ne može biti stvarno.

By about 1852, they're thinking, "Am I the stupidest person on Earth

Do 1852. oni su razmišljali, "Jesam li ja najgluplji čovjek na Zemlji

by not rushing to California?" And they start to decide they are.

ako ne žurim u Kaliforniju?" I polako su shvaćali da jesu.

These are community affairs, by the way.

To su poslovi zajednice, usput.

Local communities on the East Coast would get together and whole teams

Lokalne zajednice na istočnoj obali bi se okupile i formirale cijele timove

of 10, 20 people would caravan across the United States,

od 10 ili 20 ljudi koji bi kenuli preko Sjedinjenih Država,

and they would form companies.

i oni bi formirali poduzeća.

These were typically not solitary efforts. But no matter what,

To obično nisu bili osamljeni napori. No, bez obzira,

if you were a lawyer or a banker, people dropped what they were doing,

ako ste bili odvjetnik ili bankar, ljudi bi vam rekli što su radili,

no matter what skill set they had, to go pan for gold.

bez obzira na vještine koje su imali kao tragači zlata.

This guy on the left, Dr. Richard Beverley Cole,

Ovaj tip na lijevoj strani, dr. Richard Beverley Cole,

he lived in Philadelphia and he took the Panama route.

živio je u Philadelphiji, da bi uzeo put preko Paname.

They would take a ship down to Panama, across the isthmus,

Uzeli bi brod dolje za Panamu, preko prevlake,

and then take another ship north.

i onda bi uzeli drugi brod sjeverno.

This guy, Dr. Toland, went by covered wagon to California.

Ovaj tip, dr. Toland, otišao je pokrivenim kolima za Kaliforniju.

This has its parallels, too. Doctors leaving their practices.

To ima svoje paralele, također. Liječnici su ostavljali svoje prakse.

These are both very successful -- a physician in one case,

Oba su bila vrlo uspješna -- liječnik u jednom slučaju;

a surgeon in the other.

kirurg u drugom.

Same thing happened on the Internet. You get DrKoop.com.

Ista stvar se dogodila na Internetu. Dobijete DrKoop.com.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

In the Gold Rush, people literally jumped ship.

Tijekom Zlatne groznice, ljudi su doslovno skakali u brodove.

The San Francisco harbor was clogged with 600 ships at the peak

Luka San Francisco je bila začepljena sa 600 brodova na svom vrhuncu

because the ships would get there and the crews would abandon

jer bi brodovi došli do tamo a posada bi ih napustila

to go search for gold.

kako bi išli tražiti zlato.

So there were literally 600 captains and 600 ships.

Tako je doslovno bilo 600 kapetana i 600 brodova.

They turned the ships into hotels, because they couldn't sail them anywhere.

Oni su pretvorili brodove u hotele, jer s njima nisu nigdje mogli otploviti.

You had dotcom fever. And you had gold fever.

Imali ste dotcom groznicu. I imali ste Zlatnu groznicu.

And you saw some of the excesses

A vidjeli ste i neke od ekscesa

that the dotcom fever created and the same thing happened.

koje je dotcom groznica stvorila i ista stvar se dogodila.

The fort in San Francisco at the time had about 1,300 soldiers.

Utvrda u San Franciscu u to vrijeme imala je oko 1.300 vojnika.

Half of them deserted to go look for gold.

Polovica od njih napustila su je i otišla tražiti zlato.

And they wouldn't let the other half out to go look for the first half

A oni nisu pustili drugoj polovici da ide tražiti prvu polovicu

because they were afraid they wouldn't come back.

jer su se bojali da se ovi ne bi vratili.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

And one of the soldiers wrote home, and this is the sentence that he put:

I jedan od vojnika pisao je kući, a ovo je rečenica koju je napisao:

"The struggle between right and six dollars a month

"Borba između dobra i 6 dolara mjesečno,

and wrong and 75 dollars a day is a rather severe one."

i kriva i 75 dolara na dan je prilično teška."

They had bad burn rate in the Gold Rush. A very bad burn rate.

Imali su jako loše stope izgaranja u Zlatnoj groznici. Jako loše stope.

This is actually from the Klondike Gold Rush. This is the White Pass Trail.

Ovo je zapravo od Klondike Zlatne groznice. Ovo je White Pass Trail.

They loaded up their mules and their horses.

Natrpali su svoje mazge i konje.

And they didn't plan right.

I nisu dobro planirali.

And they didn't know how far they would really have to go,

Jer nisu znali koliko daleko će ići,

and they overloaded the horses with hundreds and hundreds of pounds of stuff.

a zatrpali su konje s desecima kilograma stvari.

In fact it was so bad that most of the horses died

U stvari, bilo je toliko loše da je većina konja umrla

before they could get where they were going.

prije nego što bi došli, tamo gdje su krenuli.

It got renamed the "Dead Horse Trail."

On je preimenovan u "Put mrtvih konja".

And the Canadian Minister of the Interior wrote this at the time:

A kanadski ministar unutarnjih poslova je napisao ovo u to vrijeme:

"Thousands of pack horses lie dead along the way,

"Tisuće mrtvih konja leže po putu,

sometimes in bunches under the cliffs,

ponekad u gomilama ispod stijene,

with pack saddles and packs where they've fallen from the rock above,

sa sedlima i teretom na mjestu gdje su pali odozgo,

sometimes in tangled masses, filling the mud holes

ponekad su zapetljane mase, punile blatne rupe

and furnishing the only footing for our poor pack animals on the march,

i stvarale jedini oslonac za naše siromašno opremljene životinje u kasu,

often, I regret to say, exhausted, but still alive,

često, sa žaljenjem kažem, iscrpljeni, ali još uvijek živ,

a fact we were unaware of, until after the miserable wretches

zapravo nismo bili svjesni, sve dok se bijedni nesretnici

turned beneath the hooves of our cavalcade.

nisu počeli pojavljivati ispod naših konja.

The eyeless sockets of the pack animals everywhere

Ispod nas posvuda gomile životinja bez očiju

account for the myriads of ravens along the road.

gozba za nebrojne gavrane uz cestu.

The inhumanity which this trail has been witness to,

Nehumanost kojoj je taj put svjedočio,

the heartbreak and suffering which so many have undergone,

tuga i patnja koju su proživjeli mnogi

cannot be imagined. They certainly cannot be described."

ne može se zamisliti. Svakako se ne može opisati."

And you know, without the smell that would have accompanied that,

I znate, bez mirisa koji bi pratio to,

we had the same thing on the Internet: very bad burn rate calculations.

imali smo istu stvar s Internetom: jako loše računice sagorijevanja.

I'll just play one of these and you'll remember it.

Ju ću pustiti samo jednu od njih a vi ćete je zapamtiti.

This is a commercial that was played on the Super Bowl in the year 2000.

Ovo je promotivni spot koji je puštan tijekom Super Bowl-a 2000. godine.

(Video): Bride #1: You said you had a large selection of invitations. Clerk: But we do.

(Video): Nevjesta #1: Rekli ste da imate veliki izbor pozivnica. Činovnik: Ali imamo.

Bride #2: Then why does she have my invitation?

Nevjesta #2; Ali zašto onda ona ima moju pozivnicu?

Announcer: What may be a little thing to some ... Bride #3: You are mine, little man.

Najavljivač: Ono što bi za neke bila mala stvar... Nevjesta #3: Ti si moj, mali čovječe.

Announcer: Could be a really big deal to you. Husband #1: Is that your wife?

Najavljivač: Mogla bi biti velika stvar za vas. Muž #1: Je li to tvoja žena?

Husband #2: Not for another 15 minutes. Announcer: After all, it's your special day.

Muž #2: Ne slijedećih 15 minuta. Najavljivač: Uostalom, to je vaš poseban dan.

OurBeginning.com. Life's an event. Announce it to the world.

OurBeginning.com. Život je događaj, objavite to svijetu.

Jeff Bezos: It's very difficult to figure out what that ad is for.

Jeff Bazos: Jako je teško shvatiti na što se odnosi ovaj spot.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

But they spent three and a half million dollars

Ali oni su potrošili tri i pol milijuna dolara

in the 2000 Super Bowl to air that ad,

kako bi prikazali taj spot na Super Bowl-u 2000.

even though, at the time, they only had a million dollars in annual revenue.

Iako, su u to vrijeme, oni imali samo milijun dolara godišnjeg prihoda.

Now, here's where our analogy with the Gold Rush starts to diverge,

Ovo je mjesto gdje se naša analogija sa Zlatnom groznicom počinje razilaziti,

and I think rather severely.

i ja mislim prilično snažno.

And that is, in a gold rush, when it's over, it's over.

A to je, u zlatnoj groznici, kada je gotovo, onda je gotovo.

Here's this guy: "There are many men in Dawson

Tu je taj dečko: "Postoji puno ljudi u Dawsonu

at the present time who feel keenly disappointed.

koji se u današnje vrijeme osjećaju žudno razočaranim.

They've come thousands of miles on a perilous trip, risked life, health and property,

Prošli su tisuće kilometara opasnog puta, riskirajući život, zdravlje i imovinu,

spent months of the most arduous labor a man can perform

uložili mjesece najnapornijeg rada koje čovjek može izdržati

and at length with expectations raised to the highest pitch

i s očekivanjima koja su podignuta na najvišu razinu

have reached the coveted goal only to discover

dosegnuli su željeni cilj da bi otkrili

the fact that there is nothing here for them."

činjenicu da tamo nema ničega za njih."

And that was, of course, the very common story.

I to je, naravno, uobičajena priča.

Because when you take out that last piece of gold --

Jer kada uzmete posljednji komad zlata --

and they did incredibly quickly. I mean, if you look at the 1849 Gold Rush --

i oni su to napravili nevjerojatno brzo. Mislim, ako pogledate na Zlatnu groznicu 1849. --

the entire American river region, within two years --

cijela američka riječna regija, unutar dvije godine --

every stone had been turned. And after that, only big companies

svaki kamen je preokrenut. I nakon toga, samo su velike kompanije

who used more sophisticated mining technologies

koje koriste sofisticirane tehnologije kopanja

started to take gold out of there.

započele su s vađenjem zlata tamo.

So there's a much better analogy that allows you to be incredibly optimistic

Zato postoji puno bolja analogija koja vam omogućava da budete nevjerojatno optimistični

and that analogy is the electric industry.

a ta analogija je električne industrija.

And there are a lot of similarities between the Internet and the electric industry.

I ima jako puno sličnosti između Interneta i električne industrije.

With the electric industry you actually have to --

S električnom industrijom u stvari morate --

one of them is that they're both sort of thin,

jedna od njih je da su obje na neki način mršave,

horizontal, enabling layers that go across lots of different industries.

horizontalne, omogućavajući slojeve koji idu preko puno različitih industrija.

It's not a specific thing.

To nije specifična stvar.

But electricity is also very, very broad, so you have to sort of narrow it down.

Ali električna struja je također jako, jako široka, tako da ćete je morati na neki način suziti.

You know, it can be used as an incredible means of transmitting power.

Znate, može se koristiti kao nevjerojatno sredstvo za prenošenje snage.

It's an incredible means of coordinating,

To je nevjerojatno sredstvo koordiniranja,

in a very fine-grained way, information flows.

na jako sitno-zrnat način, informacije teku.

There's a bunch of things that are interesting about electricity.

Postoji gomila stvari koje su jako interesantne o električnoj struji.

And the part of the electric revolution that I want to focus on

A dio električne revolucije na koji se ja želim usmjeriti

is sort of the golden age of appliances.

jest zlatno doba uređaja.

The killer app that got the world ready for appliances was the light bulb.

Najmoćnija aplikacija koja je pripremila svijet za uređaje bila je žarulja.

So the light bulb is what wired the world.

Dakle žarulja je bila ta koja je spojila svijet.

And they weren't thinking about appliances when they wired the world.

A oni nisu razmišljali o uređajima dok su povezivali svijet.

They were really thinking about --

Oni su u stvari mislili o --

they weren't putting electricity into the home;

oni nisu stavili električnu struju u domove.

they were putting lighting into the home.

Oni su stavili osvjetljenje u domove.

And, but it really -- it got the electricity. It took a long time.

Ali stvarno -- to je dovelo do struje. Trebalo je puno vremena.

This was a huge -- as you would expect -- a huge capital build out.

To je bilo ogromno -- kao što biste i očekivali -- veliki kapital se stvorio.

All the streets had to be torn up.

Sve su ulice morale biti razrovane.

This is work going on down in lower Manhattan

Ovo su poslovi koji su se odvijali u donjem Manhattanu

where they built some of the first electric power generating stations.

gdje su izgradili prve električne trafo stanice.

And they're tearing up all the streets.

A oni su razrovali sve ulice.

The Edison Electric Company, which became Edison General Electric,

Poduzeće Edison Electric Company, koje je postalo Edison General Electric

which became General Electric,

koje je onda postalo General Electric,

paid for all of this digging up of the streets. It was incredibly expensive.

platilo je za svo to kopanje po ulicama. To je bilo nevjerojatno skupo.

But that is not the -- and that's not the part that's really most similar to the Web.

Ali to nije -- to nije dio koji je najsličniji Webu.

Because, remember, the Web got to stand

Jer je, zapamtite, Web morao stajati

on top of all this heavy infrastructure

na toj cijeloj, teškoj infrastrukturi

that had been put in place because of the long-distance phone network.

koja je bila postavljena zbog mreže međunarodne telefonije.

So all of the cabling and all of the heavy infrastructure --

Dakle svo kabliranje i sva teška infrastruktura --

I'm going back now to, sort of, the explosive part of the Web in 1994,

sada idem unazad do, na neki način, eksplozivnog dijela Interneta 1994. godine,

when it was growing 2,300 percent a year.

kada je rastao 2.300% na godinu.

How could it grow at 2,300 percent a year in 1994

Kako je mogao rasti 2.300% godišnje 1994.

when people weren't really investing in the Web?

kada ljudi nisu stvarno investirali u Internet?

Well, it was because that heavy infrastructure had already been laid down.

To je zbog toga što je teška infrastruktura već bila postavljena.

So the light bulb laid down the heavy infrastructure,

Dakle žarulja je postavila infrastrukturu,

and then home appliances started coming into being.

i kućni uređaji su se počeli pojavljivati.

And this was huge. The first one was the electric fan --

I to je bila ogromna stvar. Prvi je bio električni fen --

this was the 1890 electric fan.

to je bio električni fen iz 1890.

And the appliances, the golden age of appliances really lasted --

I uređaji, zlatno doba uređaja je stvarno potrajalo --

it depends how you want to measure it --

ovisi kako to želite mjeriti --

but it's anywhere from 40 to 60 years. It goes on a long time.

ali to je između 40 i 60 godina, To traje dugi niz godina.

It starts about 1890. And the electric fan was a big success.

Započinje oko 1890. A električni fen je ostvario ogroman uspjeh.

The electric iron, also very big.

Električna pegla, također ogroman uspjeh.

By the way, this is the beginning of the asbestos lawsuit.

Usput, ovo je početak parnice za azbest.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

There's asbestos under that handle there.

Ovdje je azbest ispod te ručke tamo.

This is the first vacuum cleaner, the 1905 Skinner Vacuum,

Ovo je prvi usisivač, Skinner usisivač iz 1905.

from the Hoover Company. And this one weighed 92 pounds

koji je proizvela kompanija Hoover. I težio je skoro 42 kg,

and took two people to operate and cost a quarter of a car.

bilo je potrebno dvoje ljudi za rukovanje i zauzimao je ¼ automobila.

So it wasn't a big seller.

Dakle nije se sjajno prodavao.

This was truly, truly an early-adopter product --

Ovo je stvarno bio proizvod koji je prerano izbačen --

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

the 1905 Skinner Vacuum.

Skinner usisivač iz 1905.

But three years later, by 1908, it weighed 40 pounds.

Ali tri godine kasnije, 1908. težio je 18 kg.

Now, not all these things were highly successful.

Nisu sve te stvari bile jako uspješne.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

This is the electric tie press, which never really did catch on.

Ovo je električna preša za kravate, koja se nikada nije uhvatila.

People, I guess, decided that they would not wrinkle their ties.

Ljudi, pretpostavljam, su odlučili da neće gužvati svoje kravate.

These never really caught on either:

Ovaj se također nikada nije uhvatio na tržištu:

the electric shoe warmer and drier. Never a big seller.

električni grijač cipela i sušač. Nikada se nije prodavao na veliko.

This came in, like, six different colors.

Ovaj se mogao kupiti, u šest različitih boja.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

I don't know why. But I thought, you know,

Ne znam zašto. Ali mislim, znate,

sometimes it's just not the right time for an invention;

nekada jednostavno nije pravo vrijeme za izum;

maybe it's time to give this one another shot.

možda je vrijeme da ovome pružimo još jednu priliku.

So I thought we could build a Super Bowl ad for this.

Tako sam mislio da bismo mogli napraviti Super Bowl spot za ovo.

We'd need the right partner. And I thought that really --

Trebali bismo pravog partnera. I to sam stvarno razmišljao --

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

I thought that would really work, to give that another shot.

mislio sam da bi upalilo, da pokušamo ponovno.

Now, the toaster was huge

Toster je bio ogroman uspjeh

because they used to make toast on open fires,

jer su do tada radili tost na vatri na otvorenom,

and it took a lot of time and attention.

i trebalo mu je puno vremena i pažnje.

I want to point out one thing. This is -- you guys know what this is.

Želim istaknuti jednu stvar. To je -- vi znate o čemu se radi.

They hadn't invented the electric socket yet.

Još nisu izmislili električnu utičnicu.

So this was -- remember, they didn't wire the houses for electricity.

To je bilo -- zapamtite, nisu povezali kuće sa strujom.

They wired them for lighting. So your -- your appliances would plug in.

Povezali su ih zbog svjetla. Tako vaši -- vaši uređaji bi se uključili.

They would -- each room typically had a light bulb socket at the top.

Svaka soba je imala utičnicu za žarulju na vrhu.

And you'd plug it in there.

I onda biste to tamo uključili.

In fact, if you've seen the Carousel of Progress at Disney World,

U stvari, ako ste vidjeli ringišpil u Disney svijetu,

you've seen this. Here are the cables coming up into this light fixture.

vidjeli ste to. Ovdje su kablovi izlazili iz tog postolja za svjetlo.

All the appliances plug in there. And you would just unscrew your light bulb

Svi uređaji uključeni tamo. I samo odvrnete svoju žarulju

if you wanted to plug in an appliance.

ako želite uključiti uređaj.

The next thing that really was a big, big deal was the washing machine.

Slijedeća stvar koja je postigla veliki uspjeh, bio je stroj za pranje.

Now, this was an object of much envy and lust.

Dakle, to je bio predmet velike zavisti i požude.

Everybody wanted one of these electric washing machines.

Svi su željeli te električne strojeve za pranje.

On the left-hand side, this was the soapy water.

S lijeve strane, to je sapunasta voda.

And there's a rotor there -- that this motor is spinning.

I tamo se nalazi rotor -- koji ovaj motor vrti.

And it would clean your clothes.

I može očistiti vašu odjeću.

This is the clean rinse-water. So you'd take the clothes out of here,

Ovo je čista voda za ispiranje. Tako biste uzeli odjeću ovdje,

put them in here, and then you'd run the clothes through this electric wringer.

stavili ovdje, i onda biste provukli odjeću kroz električnu alku.

And this was a big deal.

I to je bila velika stvar.

You'd keep this on your porch. It was a little bit messy and kind of a pain.

Držali biste to na svom trijemu. Bilo je malo neuredno i na neki način bolno.

And you'd run a long cord into the house

I imali biste dugačku sajlu u kući

where you could screw it into your light socket.

kako biste je mogli priključiti na utičnicu za svjetlo.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

And that's actually kind of an important point in my presentation,

I to je na neki način važna točka u mojoj prezentaciji,

because they hadn't invented the off switch.

jer nisu izmislili prekidač za isključivanje.

That was to come much later -- the off switch on appliances --

To je došlo bitno kasnije -- prekidač na uređajima --

because it didn't make any sense.

jer nije imalo nikakvog smisla.

I mean, you didn't want this thing clogging up a light socket.

Mislim, niste željeli da vam ta stvar začepi utičnicu za svjetlo.

So you know, when you were done with it, you unscrewed it.

Tako ste, kada biste bili gotovi, odvrnuli stvar.

That's what you did. You didn't turn it off.

To ste radili. Niste je isključili na prekidaču.

And as I said before, they hadn't invented the electric outlet either,

Kao što sam ranije rekao, nisu izmislili električni izlaz,

so the washing machine was a particularly dangerous device.

tako je stroj za pranje bio posebno opasan uređaj.

And there are --

A ovdje su --

when you research this, there are gruesome descriptions

kada ovo istražujete, postoje jezivi opisi

of people getting their hair and clothes caught in these devices.

ljudi čija se kosa ili odjeća uhvatila u te uređaje.

And they couldn't yank the cord out

A oni nisu mogli samo izvući kabel

because it was screwed into a light socket inside the house.

jer je bio zašarafljen u utičnici za svjetlo u kući.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

And there was no off switch, so it wasn't very good.

I nije postojao prekidač, što nije bilo dobro.

And you might think that that was incredibly stupid of our ancestors

I možda mislite kako je to bilo nevjerojatno glupo od naših predaka

to be plugging things into a light socket like this.

zavrtati ovako stvari u utičnicu za svjetlo.

But, you know, before I get too far into condemning our ancestors,

Ali, znate, prije nego što odem predaleko u osuđivanju naših predaka,

I thought I'd show you: this is my conference room.

mislio sam vam pokazati: ovo je moja konferencijska soba.

This is a total kludge, if you ask me.

Ovo je prilično nespretno, ako mene pitate.

First of all, this got installed upside down. This light socket --

Prije svega, ovo je instalirano naopačke. Ova utičnica za svjetlo --

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

and so the cord keeps falling out, so I taped it in.

i tako kabel stalno ispada, tako da sam ga zalijepio.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

This is supposed -- don't even get me started. But that's not the worst one.

Ovo bi trebalo -- nemojte ni da počnem. Ali ovo nije najgori.

This is what it looks like under my desk.

Ovako izgleda ispod mog stola.

I took this picture just two days ago.

Ovo sam slikao prije samo dva dana.

So we really haven't progressed that much since 1908.

Tako da nismo baš puno napredovali od 1908.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

It's a total, total mess.

To je potpuni, potpuni nered.

And, you know, we think it's getting better,

I, znate, mislimo da napredujemo,

but have you tried to install 802.11 yourself?

ali jeste li pokušali ikada instalirati 802.11 sami?

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

I challenge you to try. It's very hard.

Izazivam vas da pokušate. Jako je teško.

I know Ph.D.s in Computer Science --

Znam doktore iz računalnih znanosti --

this process has brought them to tears, absolute tears. (Laughter)

taj proces ih je doveo do suza, potpunog očaja.

And that's assuming you already have DSL in your house.

A to je ako pretpostavimo da imate DSL kod kuće.

Try to get DSL installed in your house.

Pokušaje instalirati DSL u svojoj kući.

The engineers who do it everyday can't do it.

Inžinjeri koji to rade svakodnevno ne mogu to napraviti.

They have to -- typically, they come three times.

Oni moraju -- tipično dolaze tri puta.

And one friend of mine was telling me a story:

A jedan moj prijatelj mi je ispričao priču.

not only did they get there and have to wait,

Ne samo da su oni došli tamo i morali čekati,

but then the engineers, when they finally did get there,

ali onda su inžinjeri, nakon što su konačno došli,

for the third time, they had to call somebody.

treći puta, morali su nazvati nekoga.

And they were really happy that the guy had a speakerphone

I bili su stvarno sretni što taj čovjek ima telefon sa zvučnikom

because then they had to wait on hold for an hour

jer su ih stavili na čekanje jedan sat

to talk to somebody to give them an access code

kako bi mogli razgovarati s nekime tko im je dao pristupni kod

after they got there.

nakon što su došli.

So we're not -- we're pretty kludge-y ourselves.

Dakle nismo -- prilično smo nespretni.

By the way, DSL is a kludge.

Usput, DSL je nered.

I mean, this is a twisted pair of copper that was never designed

Mislim, to je zapletena parica od bakra koja nikada nije bila dizajnirana

for the purpose it's being put to --

za svrhu koja joj je namjenjena.

you know it's the whole thing --

Znate to je cijela stvar.

we're very, very primitive. And that's kind of the point.

Mi smo jako, jako primitivni. I to je nekakav zaključak.

Because, you know, resilience -- if you think of it in terms of the Gold Rush,

Jer, znate, elastičnost -- ako razmišljate o njoj u uvjetima Zlatne groznice,

then you'd be pretty depressed right now

onda biste bili prilično depresivni sada

because the last nugget of gold would be gone.

jer bi zadnji grumen zlata otišao.

But the good thing is, with innovation, there isn't a last nugget.

Ali dobra stvar je, s inovacijom, nema zadnjeg grumena.

Every new thing creates two new questions and two new opportunities.

Svaka nova stvar stvara dva nova pitanja i dvije nove prilike.

And if you believe that, then you believe that where we are --

I ako vjerujete u to, onda vjerujete da tamo gdje smo sada --

this is what I think -- I believe that where we are with the incredible kludge --

ovo je ono što ja mislim: vjerujem da tamo gdje smo s nevjerojatnom petljancijom --

and I haven't even talked about user interfaces on the Web --

a nisam pričao o korisničkom sučelju na Internetu.

but there's so much kludge, so much terrible stuff --

Ali tamo ima toliko puno petljancije, toliko puno strašnih stvari,

we are at the 1908 Hurley washing machine stage with the Internet.

da se nalazimo s Internetom u 1908. godini, na razini Hurley stroja za pranje.

That's where we are. We don't get our hair caught in it,

To je gdje se nalazimo. Ne hvata nam se kosa,

but that's the level of primitiveness of where we are.

ali to je razina primitivnosti na kojoj se nalazimo.

We're in 1908.

Mi smo u 1908.

And if you believe that, then stuff like this doesn't bother you. This is 1996:

I vjerujem kako vas stvari poput ove ne bi smetale. Ovo je 1996. godina:

"All the negatives add up to making the online experience not worth the trouble."

"Sve zbrojene negativnosti vam čine on-line iskustvo nepotrebnom gnjavažom."

1998: "Amazon.toast." In 1999: "Amazon.bomb."

1998.: "Amazon tost". U 1999.: "Amazon bomba".

My mom hates this picture.

Moja mama mrzi ovu sliku.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

She -- but you know, if you really do believe that it's the very,

Ona -- ali znate, ako stvarno vjerujete kako je to pravi,

very beginning, if you believe it's the 1908 Hurley washing machine,

pravi početak, ako vjerujete kako je ovo 1908. Hurley-jev stroj za pranje,

then you're incredibly optimistic. And I do think that that's where we are.

onda ste jako optimistični. A ja ne mislim da se tu nalazimo.

And I do think there's more innovation ahead of us

I mislim kako je ispred nas još puno više inovacija

than there is behind us.

nego što je iza nas.

And in 1917, Sears -- I want to get this exactly right.

A u 1917., Sears -- želim ovo točno pokazati.

This was the advertisement that they ran in 1917.

Ovo je promotivni spot koji se vrtio 1917.

It says: "Use your electricity for more than light."

Kaže: "Koristite svoju struju za više od svjetla."

And I think that's where we are.

A ja mislim da se upravo tu nalazimo.

We're very, very early. Thank you very much.

Jako je, jako rano. Hvala vam puno.