A climate solution where all sides can win | Ted Halstead

Prevoditelj: Ivan Stamenković Recezent: Tilen Pigac - EFZG

I have a two-year-old daughter named Naya

Imam dvogodišnju kćer imena Naya

who is under the mistaken impression

koja je pod krivim dojmom

that this conference is named in honor of her father.

da je ova konferencija nazvana u čast njenom ocu.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Who am I to contradict my baby girl?

Tko sam ja da se protivim svojoj curici?

As many of you know, there's something about becoming a parent

Kao što svi znate, ima nešto u tome kada postanete roditelj

that concentrates the mind on long-term problems like climate change.

što koncentrira um na dugoročne probleme kao što su klimatske promjene.

It was the birth of my daughter that inspired me

Rođenje moje kćeri inspiriralo me

to launch this climate organization,

da lansiram ovu klimatsku organizaciju,

in order to counteract the excessive polarization of this issue

kako bih se borio protiv pretjerane polarizacije ovog problema

in the United States,

u Sjedinjenim državama,

and to find a conservative pathway forward.

i kako bih našao konzervativni put naprijed.

Yes, folks, a Republican climate solution is possible,

Da, ljudi, republikansko klimatsko rješenje je moguće,

and you know what?

i znate što?

It may even be better.

Možda je čak i bolje.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Let me try to prove that to you.

Dajte da vam pokušam dokazati to.

What we really need is a killer app to climate policy.

Ono što zaista trebamo je super aplikacija za klimatsku politiku.

In the technology world, a killer app is an application so transformative

U tehnološkom svijetu super aplikacija je aplikacija toliko transformativna

that it creates its own market,

da stvara vlastito tržište,

like Uber.

kao Uber.

In the climate world,

U klimatskom svijetu,

a killer app is a new solution so promising

super aplikacija je novo rješenje koje toliko obećava

that it can break through the seemingly insurmountable

da može svladati naizgled nesavladive

barriers to progress.

prepreke da bi napredovala.

These include the psychological barrier.

Ovo uključuje i psihološku barijeru.

Climate advocates have long been encouraging their fellow citizens

Klimatski zagovornici dugo potiču svoje sugrađane

to make short-term sacrifices now

da rade kratkoročne žrtve sada

for benefits that accrue to other people

za dobrobit koja će nastati za druge ljude

in other countries 30 or 40 years in the future.

u drugim zemljama 30 ili 40 godina u budućnosti.

It just doesn't fly because it runs contrary to basic human nature.

To jednostavno ne prolazi, jer je suprotno od ljudske prirode.

Next is the geopolitical barrier.

Sljedeća je geopolitička barijera.

Under the current rules of global trade,

Pod trenutnim pravilima globalne razmjene,

countries have a strong incentive to free ride off the emissions reductions

zemlje imaju snažan poticaj da se švercaju na smanjenje zagađenja

of other nations,

drugih nacija,

instead of strengthening their own programs.

umjesto da jačaju vlastite programe.

This has been the curse

Ovo je bilo prokletstvo

of every international climate negotiations, including Paris.

svakih međunarodnih klimatskih pregovora, uključujući i Pariz.

Finally, we have the partisan barrier.

Napokon, imamo stranačku prepreku.

Even the most committed countries --

Čak i najposvećenije zemlje --

Germany, the United Kingdom, Canada --

Njemačka, Velika Britanija, Kanada --

are nowhere near reducing emissions at the required scale and speed.

nisu ni blizu smanjivanju zagađenja na potrebnoj razini i brzini.

Not even close.

Nisu ni blizu.

And the partisan climate divide is far more acute

I stranačka klimatska podjela je još akutnija

here in the United States.

ovdje u SAD-u.

We are fundamentally stuck,

Doslovno smo zaglavili,

and that is why we need a killer app of climate policy

i zato trebamo super aplikaciju za klimatsku politiku

to break through each of these barriers.

kako bismo probili sve ove barijere.

I'm convinced that the road to climate progress in the United States

Uvjeren sam da put napretka po pitanju klime u SAD-u

runs through the Republican Party

leži u Republikancima

and the business community.

i poslovnoj zajednici.

So in launching the Climate Leadership Council,

U lansiranju Klimatskog vijeća za vodstvo,

I started by reaching out to a who's who of Republican elder statesmen

počeo sam se javljati bitnjini republikanskim političarima,

and business leaders,

i poslovnim vođama,

including James Baker and George Schultz,

uključujući Jamesa Bakera i Georgea Schultza,

the two most respected Republican elder statesmen in America;

dva najpoštovanija starija republikanska političara u Americi;

Martin Feldstein and Greg Mankiw,

Martina Feldsteina i Grega Mankiwa,

the two most respected conservative economists in the country;

dva najpoštovanija konzervativna ekonomista u zemlji;

and Henry Paulson and Rob Walton,

i Henry Paulsona i Roba Waltona,

two of the most successful and admired business leaders.

dva najuspješnija i najpoznatija poslovna vođe.

Together, we co-authored

Zajedno, stvorili smo

"The Conservative Case For Carbon Dividends."

"Konzervativni slučaj za ugljične dividende."

This represents the first time

Ovo predstavlja prvi put

that Republican leaders put forth

da su republikanski vođe predstavili

a concrete market-based climate solution.

konkretan plan za klimatske promjene namijenjen tržištu.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

We presented our plan at the White House

Predstavili smo svoj plan u Bijeloj Kući

two weeks after President Trump moved in.

dva tjedna nakon što se uselio predsjednik Trump.

Almost every leading editorial board in the country

Gotovo svaki nadzorni odbor u zemlji

has since endorsed our plan,

je od onda podržao naš plan,

and Fortune 100 companies from a wide range of industries

i tvrtke sa Fortune 100 liste iz širokog raspona industrija

are now getting behind it.

sada staju iza njega.

So by now you're probably wondering,

Sad se već sigurno pitate,

what exactly is this plan?

kakav je to plan?

Well, our carbon dividends solution is based on four pillars.

Pa, naše riješenje za ugljične dividende stoji na četiri stupca.

The first is a gradually rising carbon tax.

Prvi je polako podizati porez na emisije ugljika.

Although capitalism is a wonderful system,

Iako je kapitalizam divan sustav,

like many operating systems, it's prone to bugs,

kao i mnogi operativni sustav, sklon je greškama,

which, in this case, are called "market failures."

koji se, u ovom slučaju, zovu "tržišni promašaji."

By far the largest is that market prices fail to take

Najveći je taj da tržišne cijene ne uzimaju u obzir

social and environmental costs into account.

društveni i okolišni trošak.

That means every market transaction is based on incorrect information.

To znači da je svaka tržišna transakcija zasnovana na krivim informacijama.

This fundamental bug of capitalism, more than any other single factor,

Ova temeljna greška kapitalizma, više nego bilo koji drugi faktor,

is to blame for our climate predicament.

kriva je za naše probleme s klimom.

Now in theory, this should be an easy problem to fix.

U teoriji, ovo bi trebalo biti lako riješiti.

Economists agree

Ekonomisti se slažu

that the best solution is to put a price on the carbon content of fossil fuels,

da je najbolje rješenje da se stavi cijena na ugljik u fosilnim gorivima,

otherwise known as a carbon tax.

inače znan kao porez na ugljik.

This would discourage carbon emissions

To bi obeshrabrilo emisije ugljika

in every single economic transaction,

u svakoj ekonomskoj transakciji

every day of the year.

svakog dana u godini.

However, a carbon tax by itself has proven to be unpopular

No ipak, porez na ugljik nije popularan

and a political dead end.

i politička je slijepa ulica.

The answer is to return all the money raised

Odgovor je vratiti sav prikupljeni novac

directly to citizens,

direktno građanima,

in the form of equal monthly dividends.

u obliku jednakih mjesečnih naknada.

This would transform an unpopular carbon tax

To bi transformiralo nepopularni porez

into a popular and populist solution,

u popularno i populističko rješenje,

and it would also solve

i također bi riješilo

the underlying psychological barrier that we discussed,

psihološku barijeru o kojoj smo pričali,

by giving everyone a concrete benefit in the here and now.

dajući svima konkretnu dobrobit sada i ovdje.

And these benefits would be significant.

I te blagodati bile bi značajne.

Assuming a carbon tax rate that starts at 40 dollars per ton,

Pretpostavimo da porez kreće od 40 dolara po toni,

a family of four would receive 2,000 dollars per year

obitelj od četvoro bi dobila 2.000 dolara godišnje

from the get-go.

u startu.

According to the US Treasury Department,

Prema Američkoj riznici

the bottom 70 percent of Americans would receive more in dividends

donjih 70 posto Amerikanaca dobilo bi više u dividendama

than they would pay in increased energy prices.

nego bi platili u povećanim cijenama energenata.

That means 223 million Americans would win economically

To znači da bi 223 milijuna Amerikanaca bilo na ekonomskom dobitku

from solving climate change.

od rješavanja klimatskih promjena.

And that --

I to --

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

is revolutionary,

je revolucionarno,

and could fundamentally alter climate politics.

i moglo bi iz korijena promijeniti klimatsku politiku.

But there's another revolutionary element here.

Ali postoji tu još jedan revolucionarni element.

The amount of the dividend would grow

Količina dividendi rasla bi

as the carbon tax rate increases.

kako bi rastao porez na ugljik.

The more we protect our climate,

Što više štitimo klimu,

the more our citizens benefit.

više građana ima dobrobiti.

This creates a positive feedback loop,

To stvara pozitivne povratne informacije,

which is crucial,

što je ključno,

because the only way we will reach our long-term emission-reduction goals

jer jedini način da dođemo do naših dugoročnih ciljeva za smanjenje emisije

is if the carbon tax rate goes up every year.

je ako visina poreza raste svake godine.

The third pillar of our program is eliminating regulations

Treći stup našeg programa je eliminiranje propisa

that are no longer needed

koji više nisu potrebni

once a carbon dividends plan is enacted.

kada plan sa ugljičnim dividendama počne djelovati.

This is a key selling point to Republicans and business leaders.

To je ključna točka u kojoj pridobivamo Republikance i poslovne vođe.

So why should we trade

Zašto bismo mijenjali

climate regulations for a price on carbon?

klimatske odrednice za cijenu na ugljiku?

Well, let me show you.

Pa, dozvolite da vam pokažem.

Our plan would achieve nearly twice the emissions reductions

Cilj nam je postići gotovo dvostruko smanjenje emisija

of all Obama-era climate regulations combined,

u odnosu na sve Obamine odredbe zajedno,

and nearly three times the new baseline

i tri puta više od nove osnove

after President Trump repeals all of those regulations.

nakon što predsjednik Trump povuče sve te odredbe.

That assumes a carbon tax starting at 40 dollars per ton,

To podrazumijeva porez na ugljik od 40 dolara po toni,

which translates into roughly an extra 36 cents per gallon of gas.

odnosno 36 centa po galonu goriva.

Our plan by itself

Naš plan sam po sebi

would meet the high end of America's commitment

bi dosegao američke obveze

under the Paris Climate Agreement,

po Pariškom klimatskom ugovoru,

and as you can see,

i kao što možete vidjeti

the emissions reductions would continue over time.

smanjenje emisija nastavilo bi se kroz vrijeme.

This illustrates the power of a conservative climate solution

Ovo ilustrira moć konzervativnog rješenja za klimatske probleme

based on free markets and limited government.

temeljene na slobodnom tržištu i limitiranom upravljanju.

We would end up with less regulation

Završili bi sa manje propisa

and far less pollution at the same time,

i puno manje zagađenja u isto vrijeme,

while helping working-class Americans get ahead.

dok bi pomagali američkoj radničkoj klasi da napreduje.

Doesn't that sound like something we could all support?

Ne zvuči li ovo kao nešto što bi svi mogli poduprijeti?

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

The fourth and final pillar of our program is a new climate domino effect,

Četvrti i posljednji stup našeg programa je domino efekt nove klime

based on border carbon adjustments.

temeljen na graničnom prilagođavanju ugljika.

Now that may sound complicated,

Sad, to možda zvuči komplicirano,

but it, too, is revolutionary,

ali i to je revolucionarno,

because it provides us a whole new strategy

jer nam daje čitavu novu strategiju

to reach a global price on carbon,

da dosegnemo globalnu cijenu ugljika,

which is ultimately what we need.

što je ono što nam na kraju treba.

Let me show you an example.

Dopustite da vam pokažem primjer.

Suppose Country A adopts a carbon dividends plan,

Pretpostavimo da zemlja A prihvati plan ugljičnih dividendi,

and Country B does not.

i zemlja B to ne učini.

Well, to level the playing field

Da bismo izjednačili teren

and protect the competitiveness of its industries,

i zaštitili konkurentnost svoje industrije

Country A would tax imports from Country B

zemlja A oporezuje uvoz zemlje B

based on their carbon content.

ovisno o sastavu ugljika.

Fair enough.

Pošteno.

But here's where it gets really interesting,

Ali sada stvari postaju zanimljive,

because the money raised at the border would increase the dividends

jer novac skupljen na granici povećava dividende

going to the citizens of Country A.

koje idu građanima zemlje A.

Well, how long do you think it would take the public in Country B to realize

Pa, koliko bi vremena trebalo javnosti u zemlji B da shvati

that that money should be going to them,

da taj novac treba ići njima,

and to push for a carbon dividends plan in their own land?

i da bi trebali podržati ugljične dividende u svojoj zemlji?

Add a few more countries,

Dodajte još par zemalja,

and we get a new climate domino effect.

i imamo klimatski domino efekt.

Once one major country or region adopts carbon dividends

Kada jedna velika zemlja ili regija prihvati ugljične dividende

with border carbon adjustments,

sa prilagodbama na granici,

other countries are compelled to follow suit.

sve ostale zemlje moraju slijediti.

One by one the dominoes fall.

Jedna po jedna, domine padaju.

And this domino effect could start anywhere.

I ovaj domino efekt može početi bilo gdje.

My preference, strongly, is the United States,

Moja preferencija su Sjedinjene Američke Države

but it could also start in the United Kingdom,

ali može početi i u Ujedinjenom Kraljevstvu,

in Germany or another European country,

Njemačkoj ili bilo kojoj Europskoj zemlji,

or even in China.

ili čak u Kini.

Let's take China as an example.

Uzmimo Kinu kao primjer.

China is committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions,

Kina je posvećena smanjenju emisije stakleničkih plinova,

but what its leaders care even more about

ali ono za što se njeni vođe još više brinu

is transitioning their economy to consumer-led economic development.

je tranzicija ekonomije u ekonomski razvoj vođen kupcima.

Well, nothing could do more to hasten that transition

Pa, ništa ne bi moglo ubrzati tu tranziciju

than giving every Chinese citizen a monthly dividend.

nego davanje svakom građaninu Kine mjesečnu dividendu.

In fact, this is the only policy solution

Zapravo, ovo je jedino rješenje

that would enable China to meet its environmental and economic goals

koje bi omogućilo da Kina dosegne svoj okolišni i ekonomski cilj

at the same time.

u isto vrijeme.

That's why this is the killer app of climate policy,

Zato je ovo super aplikacija za klimatsku politiku,

because it would enable us to overcome

jer bi omogućilo da savladamo

each of the barriers we discussed earlier:

sve barijere o kojima smo pričali prije,

the psychological barrier, the partisan barrier,

psihološku, stranačku

and, as we've just seen, the geopolitical barrier.

i kako smo vidjeli geopolitičku barijeru.

All we need is a country to lead the way.

Sve što trebamo je zemlja koja će nas povesti.

And one method of finding what you're looking for

I jedna metoda pronalaska onoga što tražite

is to take out an ad.

je da date oglas.

So let's read this one together.

Pročitajmo ovaj skupa.

Wanted: country to pioneer carbon dividends plan.

Traži se: zemlja da predvodi plan za ugljične dividende.

Cost to country: zero.

Trošak za zemlju: nula.

Starting date: as soon as possible.

Početni datum: što prije.

Advantages: most effective climate solution,

Prednosti: najučinkovitije rješenje za klimatske promjene,

popular and populist,

popularno i populističko,

pro-growth and pro-business,

za rad i razvoj poslovanja,

shrinks government and helps the working class.

smanjuje vladu i pomaže radničkoj klasi.

Additional compensation: gratitude of current and future generations,

Dodatna kompenzacija: zahvalnost trenutnih i budućih generacija,

including my daughter.

uključujući moju kćer.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

Chris Anderson: Just one question for you, Ted.

Chris Anderson: Samo jedno pitanje za tebe, Ted.

I'm actually not sure

Nisam siguran

I've seen a conservative get a standing O at TED before that.

da sam do sada vidio konzervativca koji je dobio ovacije na TED-u.

That's pretty cool.

To je prilično cool.

The logic seems really powerful,

Logika se čini snažna,

but some people you talk to in politics

ali ljudi s kojima pričaš u politici

say it's hard to imagine this still getting through Congress.

kažu da je teško zamisliti da će ovo proći Kongres.

How are you feeling about momentum behind this?

Kako se osjećaš u vezi zamaha iza ovoga?

Ted Halstead: So I understand that many are very pessimistic

Ted Halstead: Razumijem da su mnogi pesimistični

about what's happening in the United States with President Trump.

vezano uz to što se događa u SAD-u sa predsjednikom Trumpom.

I'm less pessimistic; here's why.

Ja sam manje pesimističan, evo zašto.

The actions of this White House, the early actions on climate,

Potezi koje Bijela Kuća vuče, rani potezi vezani uz klimu,

are just the first move in a complex game of climate chess.

samo su prvi potez u igri klimatskog šaha.

So far it's been a repeal-only strategy;

Za sada je to bila samo strategija opoziva:

the pressure is going to mount for a replacement program,

pritisak će rasti za zamjenski program,

which is where we come in.

gdje mi dolazimo na red.

And there are three reasons why, which I'll go through real quickly.

I tu su tri razloga zašto, kroz koje ću brzo proći.

One, the business community is fundamentally parting ways

Prvo, poslovnjaci se razdvajaju od Bijele Kuće

with the White House on climate change.

po pitanju klimatskih promjena.

In fact, we're finding

Zapravo, utvrdili smo

a number of Fortune 100 companies supporting our program.

da puno Fortune 100 tvrtki podržava naš program.

Within two months, we're going to be announcing

Unutar dva mjeseca, najavit ćemo

some really surprising names coming out in favor of this program.

zaista iznenađujuća imena koja podržavaju ovaj program.

Two, there is no issue in American politics

Dva, ne postoji problem u Američkoj politici

where there's a more fundamental gap between the Republican base

gdje postoji veći razdor između Republikanske baze

and the Republican leadership than climate change.

i Republikanskog vodstva od klimatske promjene.

And three, thinking of this analogy of chess,

I treće, razmišljajući o ovoj analogiji šaha,

the big decision up ahead is: Does the administration stay in Paris?

velika odluka ispred nas je: Da li administracija ostaje u Parizu?

Well, let's pan it out both ways.

Pa sagledajmo to s obje strane.

If it stays in Paris, as many are pushing for in the administration,

Ako ostane u Parizu, za što mnogi lobiraju u administraciji,

well then that begs a question: What's the plan?

onda to postavlja pitanje: Koji je plan?

We have the plan.

Imamo plan.

But if they don't stay in Paris,

Ali ako ne ostanu u Parizu,

the international pressure will be overwhelming.

međunarodni pritisak postaje prevelik.

Our Secretary of State will be asking other countries for NATO contributions,

Naš Državni tajnik pitat će druge zemlje za doprinose NATO-u,

and they'll be saying, "No, give us our Paris commitment.

i oni će reći, "Ne, dajte nam našu obvezu iz Pariza.

Come through on your commitments, we'll come through on ours."

Ispunite svoje obveze i mi ćemo ispuniti svoje."

So, international, business and even the Republican base

Dakle, internacionala, poslovnjaci, pa čak i Republikanska baza

will all be calling for a Republican replacement plan.

tražit će zamjenski plan za Republikance.

And, hopefully, we've provided one.

I nadam se da smo pružili taj plan.

CA: Thank you so much, Ted.

CA: Hvala puno, Ted.

TH: Thank you, Chris.

TH: Hvala ti, Chris.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)