A climate solution where all sides can win | Ted Halstead

350,290 views ・ 2017-06-08

TED


μ•„λž˜ μ˜λ¬Έμžλ§‰μ„ λ”λΈ”ν΄λ¦­ν•˜μ‹œλ©΄ μ˜μƒμ΄ μž¬μƒλ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.

λ²ˆμ—­: Mijin Kim κ²€ν† : Joo Young Moon
00:13
I have a two-year-old daughter named Naya
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μ €μ—κ²ŒλŠ” λ‚˜μ•ΌλΌκ³  ν•˜λŠ” 두 μ‚΄ λ‚œ 딸이 μžˆλŠ”λ°μš”.
00:15
who is under the mistaken impression
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λ”Έμ•„μ΄λŠ” 이 컨퍼런슀의 이름을 μ•„λΉ λ₯Ό κΈ°λ…ν•΄μ„œ μ§€μ—ˆλ‹€κ³  μ°©κ°ν•΄μš”.
00:17
that this conference is named in honor of her father.
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00:21
(Laughter)
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(μ›ƒμŒ)
00:22
Who am I to contradict my baby girl?
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μ œκ°€ μ–΄λ¦° λ”Έμ˜ 말을 μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ λ°˜λ°•ν•  수 μžˆκ² μŠ΅λ‹ˆκΉŒ?
00:25
As many of you know, there's something about becoming a parent
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λ§Žμ€ 뢄이 μ•„μ‹œλŠ” κ²ƒμ²˜λŸΌ 기후변화와 같은
00:29
that concentrates the mind on long-term problems like climate change.
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μž₯기적인 λ¬Έμ œμ— μ§‘μ€‘ν•˜λ©΄μ„œ λΆ€λͺ¨κ°€ λ˜λŠ” 것은 νŠΉλ³„ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:34
It was the birth of my daughter that inspired me
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κΈ°ν›„ 단체λ₯Ό λ§Œλ“€μžλŠ” μ˜κ°μ„ κ°–κ²Œ 된 것은
00:36
to launch this climate organization,
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딸이 νƒœμ–΄λ‚  λ•Œμ˜€μ£ .
00:39
in order to counteract the excessive polarization of this issue
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이 λ¬Έμ œμ— κ΄€ν•œ λ―Έκ΅­ λ‚΄μ˜ κ·Ήμ‹¬ν•œ 양극화에 λŒ€μ‘ν•˜κ³ 
00:43
in the United States,
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00:44
and to find a conservative pathway forward.
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μ•žμœΌλ‘œ λ‚˜μ•„κ°ˆ 보수적인 λ°©ν–₯을 λͺ¨μƒ‰ν•˜κΈ° μœ„ν•΄μ„œμ˜€μ£ .
00:49
Yes, folks, a Republican climate solution is possible,
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λ§žμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€, μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„! 곡화당적인 κΈ°ν›„ λŒ€μ±…μ€ κ°€λŠ₯ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:54
and you know what?
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그런데 μ•„μ‹­λ‹ˆκΉŒ?
00:55
It may even be better.
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심지어 더 λ‚˜μ„ μˆ˜λ„ μžˆμ–΄μš”.
00:58
(Laughter)
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(μ›ƒμŒ)
00:59
Let me try to prove that to you.
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이것을 증λͺ…ν•˜μ£ .
01:03
What we really need is a killer app to climate policy.
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μš°λ¦¬μ—κ²Œ 정말 ν•„μš”ν•œ 건
κΈ°ν›„ 정책에 κ΄€ν•œ ν‚¬λŸ¬(λλ‚΄μ£ΌλŠ”) μ•±μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:07
In the technology world, a killer app is an application so transformative
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그것은 기술 μš©μ–΄λ‘œμ¨
μžμ‹ λ§Œμ˜ μ‹œμž₯을 λ§Œλ“œλŠ” μš°λ²„μ²˜λŸΌ 독창적이고
01:12
that it creates its own market,
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ν˜μ‹ μ μΈ μ• ν”Œλ¦¬μΌ€μ΄μ…˜μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:13
like Uber.
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01:15
In the climate world,
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κΈ°ν›„ λΆ„μ•Όμ—μ„œ
01:16
a killer app is a new solution so promising
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ν‚¬λŸ¬ μ•±μ΄λž€
λ„˜μ„ 수 μ—†μ–΄ 보이고 진보λ₯Ό κ°€λ‘œλ§‰λŠ” μž₯벽을
01:21
that it can break through the seemingly insurmountable
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뚫고 μ•žμœΌλ‘œ λ‚˜μ•„κ°€κ²Œ λ§Œλ“œλŠ” μ•„μ£Ό μ „λ„μœ λ§ν•˜κ³ 
01:25
barriers to progress.
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μƒˆλ‘œμš΄ 해결책인데
01:27
These include the psychological barrier.
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심리적인 μž₯λ²½ λ˜ν•œ ν¬ν•¨ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:30
Climate advocates have long been encouraging their fellow citizens
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κΈ°ν›„ λŒ€μ±… μ§€μ§€μžλ“€μ€ μ˜€λž«λ™μ•ˆ μžκ΅­λ―Όμ—κ²Œ
01:34
to make short-term sacrifices now
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λ‹¨κΈ°κ°„μ˜ 희생을 λ…λ €ν–ˆκ³ 
01:35
for benefits that accrue to other people
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그둜써 타인과 λ‹€λ₯Έ λ‚˜λΌμ˜ ꡭ민이
01:38
in other countries 30 or 40 years in the future.
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30λ…„μ΄λ‚˜ 40λ…„ 후인 λ―Έλž˜μ— ν˜œνƒμ„ λ°›κ²Œ ν•˜λ €λŠ” κ²ƒμ΄μ§€λ§Œ
01:41
It just doesn't fly because it runs contrary to basic human nature.
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μ΄λŠ” 기본적인 μΈκ°„μ˜ 본성에 μ–΄κΈ‹λ‚˜κΈ°μ— 섀득λ ₯이 μ—†μ£ .
01:46
Next is the geopolitical barrier.
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λ‹€μŒμ€ 지정학적 μž₯λ²½μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:49
Under the current rules of global trade,
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ꡭ제 λ¬΄μ—­μ˜ ν˜„ κ·œμΉ™ μ†μ—μ„œ
01:52
countries have a strong incentive to free ride off the emissions reductions
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κ΅­κ°€λ§ˆλ‹€ λ‹€λ₯Έ λ‚˜λΌμ—μ„œ λ°°μΆœλŸ‰μ„ κ°μ†Œν•˜λŠ” 것에
λ¬΄μž„μŠΉμ°¨ν•˜λ €λŠ” μš•κ΅¬κ°€ 자ꡭ의 ν”„λ‘œκ·Έλž¨μ„
01:56
of other nations,
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01:57
instead of strengthening their own programs.
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κ°•ν™”ν•˜λŠ” 것보닀 ν°λ°μš”.
02:00
This has been the curse
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μ΄λŠ” 파리 κΈ°ν›„ ν˜‘μ •κ³Ό
02:01
of every international climate negotiations, including Paris.
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λͺ¨λ“  ꡭ제 κΈ°ν›„ ν˜‘μ•½μ—μ„œ 골칫거리가 되고 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:06
Finally, we have the partisan barrier.
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λ§ˆμ§€λ§‰μœΌλ‘œ λ‹ΉνŒŒ μž₯벽이 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:09
Even the most committed countries --
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κ°€μž₯ 열심인 ꡭ가에 μ†ν•˜λŠ”
02:11
Germany, the United Kingdom, Canada --
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독일, 영ꡭ, μΊλ‚˜λ‹€μ‘°μ°¨λ„
02:14
are nowhere near reducing emissions at the required scale and speed.
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κ°€μŠ€ 배좜 감좕 μš”κ΅¬λŸ‰κ³Ό
속도λ₯Ό 맞좘 λ‚˜λΌλŠ” ν•˜λ‚˜λ„ 없을 뿐만 μ•„λ‹ˆλΌ
02:19
Not even close.
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κ·Όμ²˜μ—λ„ 가지 λͺ»ν–ˆμ£ .
02:20
And the partisan climate divide is far more acute
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κΈ°ν›„ 문제둜 μΈν•œ λ‹ΉνŒŒ 뢄열은
μ—¬κΈ° 미ꡭ에선 훨씬 더 μ‹¬κ°ν•œλ°μš”.
02:25
here in the United States.
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02:27
We are fundamentally stuck,
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이도 저도 λͺ»ν•˜λŠ” μƒνƒœμ£ .
02:29
and that is why we need a killer app of climate policy
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κ·Έλž˜μ„œ 각각의 μž₯벽을 νƒ€κ°œν•  수 μžˆλŠ”
02:33
to break through each of these barriers.
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κΈ°ν›„ 정책에 κ΄€ν•œ ν‚¬λŸ¬ 앱이 ν•„μš”ν•˜μ£ .
02:36
I'm convinced that the road to climate progress in the United States
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μ œκ°€ ν™•μ‹ ν•˜λŠ” 것은
미ꡭ의 κΈ°ν›„ 문제의 ν•΄κ²° 방법을 μ§„μ „μ‹œν‚€λŠ” 일을
02:42
runs through the Republican Party
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곡화당과 경제 κ³΅λ™μ²΄μ—μ„œ
02:44
and the business community.
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찾을 수 μžˆλ‹€λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:48
So in launching the Climate Leadership Council,
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λ”°λΌμ„œ κΈ°ν›„ 리더십 μœ„μ›νšŒλ₯Ό μ„€λ¦½ν•˜λŠ” κ³Όμ •μ—μ„œ
02:50
I started by reaching out to a who's who of Republican elder statesmen
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μ €λŠ” κ³΅ν™”λ‹Ήμ˜ μ›λ‘œ μ •μΉ˜μΈλ“€μ΄λ‚˜ κΈ°μ—…κ°€ 쀑 유λͺ…ν•œ μ‚¬λžŒλ“€κ³Ό μ ‘μ΄‰ν–ˆμ£ .
02:54
and business leaders,
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02:56
including James Baker and George Schultz,
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미ꡭ의 κ°€μž₯ μ‘΄κ²½λ°›λŠ” 곡화당 μ›λ‘œμ •μΉ˜μΈμ΄μ‹ 
02:59
the two most respected Republican elder statesmen in America;
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μ œμž„μŠ€ 베이컀와 쑰지 μŠμΈ μ™€λ„ λ§Œλ‚¬κ³ 
03:03
Martin Feldstein and Greg Mankiw,
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κ°€μž₯ μ‘΄κ²½λ°›λŠ” 보수 κ²½μ œν•™μžμΈ
03:05
the two most respected conservative economists in the country;
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λ§ˆν‹΄ νŽ λ“œμŠ€νƒ€μΈκ³Ό 그레그 맨큐 그리고 μž¬κ³„μ—μ„œ
03:09
and Henry Paulson and Rob Walton,
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헨리 폴슨과 λ‘­ μ›”νŠΌμ²˜λŸΌ
03:11
two of the most successful and admired business leaders.
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κ°€μž₯ μ„±κ³΅ν•œ κΈ°μ—…κ°€μ΄μž μ‘΄κ²½λ°›λŠ” 기업가와 ν•¨κ»˜
03:14
Together, we co-authored
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"νƒ„μ†Œ λ°°λ‹ΉκΈˆμ— λŒ€ν•œ 보수적인 사둀"λ₯Ό μ§‘ν•„ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:16
"The Conservative Case For Carbon Dividends."
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03:19
This represents the first time
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μ΄λŠ” 곡화당 μ§€λ„μžλ“€μ΄ 처음으둜
03:22
that Republican leaders put forth
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μ‹œμž₯ 기반의 ꡬ체적인 κΈ°ν›„ λŒ€μ±…μ„
03:25
a concrete market-based climate solution.
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μ œμ•ˆν–ˆλ‹€λŠ” 사싀을 λ³΄μ—¬μ€λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:28
(Applause)
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(λ°•μˆ˜)
03:29
Thank you.
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κ³ λ§™μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:30
(Applause)
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(λ°•μˆ˜)
03:33
We presented our plan at the White House
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μ €ν¬λŠ” νŠΈλŸΌν”„ λŒ€ν†΅λ Ήμ΄ 백악관에 μž…μ„±ν•œ 지
03:35
two weeks after President Trump moved in.
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2μ£Ό 후에 κ·Έκ³³μ—μ„œ 우리의 κ³„νšμ„ λ°œν‘œν–ˆμ£ .
03:39
Almost every leading editorial board in the country
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κ·Έ 이후 μ „κ΅­μ˜ 유λͺ…ν•œ
νŽΈμ§‘κ΅­μž₯λ“€ λŒ€λΆ€λΆ„μ΄
03:43
has since endorsed our plan,
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이 κ³„νšμ„ μ§€μ§€ν•˜λ©°
03:45
and Fortune 100 companies from a wide range of industries
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그리고 λ‹€μ–‘ν•œ μ‚°μ—… μ „λ°˜μ— 걸쳐 μžˆλŠ”
ν¬μ²œμ§€ μ„ μ • 100λŒ€ κΈ°μ—…λ“€κΉŒμ§€ λ™μ°Έν•˜κ³  μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:50
are now getting behind it.
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03:52
So by now you're probably wondering,
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μ΄μ―€μ—μ„œ μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„κ»˜μ„œ
03:54
what exactly is this plan?
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μ •ν™•νžˆ μ–΄λ–€ κ³„νšμΈμ§€ κΆκΈˆν•΄ν•˜μ‹€ κ±° κ°™μ€λ°μš”.
03:57
Well, our carbon dividends solution is based on four pillars.
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νƒ„μ†Œ λ°°λ‹ΉκΈˆ ν•΄κ²°μ±…μ˜ 바탕엔 λ„€ 가지 κΈ°λ³Έ 골격이 있죠.
04:01
The first is a gradually rising carbon tax.
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첫 λ²ˆμ§ΈλŠ” νƒ„μ†Œμ„Έκ°€ μ μ§„μ μœΌλ‘œ μƒμŠΉν•œλ‹€λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:05
Although capitalism is a wonderful system,
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μžλ³Έμ£Όμ˜κ°€ 아무리 멋진 μ‹œμŠ€ν…œμ΄λΌκ³  ν•˜λ”λΌλ„
04:08
like many operating systems, it's prone to bugs,
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λ‹€λ₯Έ λ§Žμ€ 운영 체제처럼 였λ₯˜κ°€ 있기 λ§ˆλ ¨μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:11
which, in this case, are called "market failures."
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이 경우 "μ‹œμž₯의 μ‹€νŒ¨"라 ν•˜μ£ .
04:14
By far the largest is that market prices fail to take
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μ‹œμž₯ κ°€κ²©μ˜ μ‹€νŒ¨λ₯Ό κ°€μ Έμ˜¨ μ΄μœ λŠ” 단연코
04:17
social and environmental costs into account.
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μ‚¬νšŒ λΉ„μš©κ³Ό ν™˜κ²½ λΉ„μš©μ„ 계산에 넣지 μ•Šμ€ 것인데
04:21
That means every market transaction is based on incorrect information.
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μ‹œμž₯ 거래 μ „λ°˜μ— κ±Έμ³μ„œ
μ •ν™•ν•œ 정보λ₯Ό λ°˜μ˜ν•˜μ§€ μ•Šμ€ 결과라 ν•  수 있죠.
04:27
This fundamental bug of capitalism, more than any other single factor,
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자본주의의 이 기본적인 였λ₯˜λŠ” κ·Έ μ–΄λ–€ λ‹¨μΌμš”μ†Œλ³΄λ‹€ 더
04:31
is to blame for our climate predicament.
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우리의 ν™˜κ²½μ„ 곀경에 빠뜨리게 ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:34
Now in theory, this should be an easy problem to fix.
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μ΄λ‘ λŒ€λ‘œλΌλ©΄ 이것은 고치기 μ‰¬μš΄ λ¬Έμ œμ—¬μ•Ό ν•˜λŠ”λ°μš”.
04:37
Economists agree
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κ²½μ œν•™μžλ“€μ€ μ΅œμ„ μ˜ ν•΄κ²°μ±…μœΌλ‘œ
04:39
that the best solution is to put a price on the carbon content of fossil fuels,
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ν™”μ„μ—°λ£Œμ˜ νƒ„μ†Œν•¨μœ λŸ‰μ— 가격을 λ§€κΈ°λŠ” 것에 λ™μ˜ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:44
otherwise known as a carbon tax.
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νƒ„μ†Œμ„Έλ‘œ μ•Œλ €μ Έ μžˆκΈ°λ„ ν•˜μ£ .
04:46
This would discourage carbon emissions
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이것을 ν†΅ν•΄μ„œ 맀일맀일 λ°œμƒν•˜λŠ”
04:50
in every single economic transaction,
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λͺ¨λ“  경제 κ±°λž˜μ—μ„œ νƒ„μ†Œ λ°°μΆœλŸ‰μ„ μ–΅μ œν•  κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:52
every day of the year.
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04:54
However, a carbon tax by itself has proven to be unpopular
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ νƒ„μ†Œμ„Έ 자체만으둠
그닀지 맀λ ₯이 μ—†μœΌλ©° μ •μΉ˜μ μœΌλ‘œλ„ νŒŒνƒ„ 났닀고 증λͺ…λλŠ”λ°μš”.
04:59
and a political dead end.
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05:01
The answer is to return all the money raised
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정닡을 μ œμ‹œν•˜μžλ©΄ λͺ¨μΈ λˆμ„ μ „λΆ€
05:05
directly to citizens,
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μ‹œλ―Όλ“€μ—κ²Œ 맀달 κ· λ“±ν•˜κ²Œ
05:07
in the form of equal monthly dividends.
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λ°°λ‹ΉκΈˆμ˜ ν˜•νƒœλ‘œ λ˜λŒλ €μ£ΌλŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:11
This would transform an unpopular carbon tax
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이것은 맀λ ₯ μ—†λŠ” νƒ„μ†Œμ„Έλ₯Ό λŒ€μ€‘μ΄ ν™˜ν˜Έν•  뿐 μ•„λ‹ˆλΌ
05:15
into a popular and populist solution,
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μ΅œμ„ μ˜ ν•΄κ²°μ±…μœΌλ‘œ 자리 작게 ν•΄ 쀄 κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:18
and it would also solve
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λ˜ν•œ μš°λ¦¬κ°€ λ…Όν–ˆλ˜
05:20
the underlying psychological barrier that we discussed,
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근본적인 심리적 μž₯λ²½ μ—­μ‹œ ν•΄κ²°ν•  ν…λ°μš”.
05:23
by giving everyone a concrete benefit in the here and now.
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ν˜„μ‹œμ μ—μ„œ λͺ¨λ‘μ—κ²Œ ꡬ체적인 ν˜œνƒλ„ μ£ΌκΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμ΄μ£ 
05:29
And these benefits would be significant.
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이 ν˜œνƒμ€ λŒ€λ‹¨νžˆ μ˜λ―Έκ°€ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:31
Assuming a carbon tax rate that starts at 40 dollars per ton,
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νƒ„μ†Œμ„Έκ°€ 1톀당 40λ‹¬λŸ¬λΆ€ν„° μ‹œμž‘ν•œλ‹€κ³  κ°€μ •ν•œλ‹€λ©΄
05:35
a family of four would receive 2,000 dollars per year
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4인 가쑱은 λ„μž… μ‹œμ λΆ€ν„° μ—°κ°„ 2천 λ‹¬λŸ¬λ₯Ό λ°›κ²Œ λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:38
from the get-go.
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05:40
According to the US Treasury Department,
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λ―Έκ΅­ μž¬λ¬΄λΆ€μ— λ”°λ₯΄λ©΄
05:43
the bottom 70 percent of Americans would receive more in dividends
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미ꡭ인듀 쀑 ν•˜μœ„ 70%λŠ”
μžμ‹ λ“€μ΄ λ‚΄λŠ” μ—λ„ˆμ§€ λΉ„μš©λ³΄λ‹€ 더 λ§Žμ€ λ°°λ‹ΉκΈˆμ„ λ°›κ²Œ 되죠
05:48
than they would pay in increased energy prices.
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05:51
That means 223 million Americans would win economically
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μ΄λŠ” 2μ–΅ 2천 3백만 λͺ…μ˜ 미ꡭ인듀이
κΈ°ν›„ λ³€ν™”λ₯Ό ν•΄κ²°ν•˜λ©° κ²½μ œμ μœΌλ‘œλ„ 이읡을 μ–»κ²Œ λœλ‹€λŠ” μ˜λ―Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:58
from solving climate change.
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06:01
And that --
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그리고 이것은
06:02
(Applause)
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(λ°•μˆ˜)
06:03
is revolutionary,
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νšκΈ°μ μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:05
and could fundamentally alter climate politics.
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κΈ°ν›„μ •μΉ˜ν•™μ„ 근본적으둜 바꿔놓을 수 μžˆμ–΄μ„œμ£ .
06:10
But there's another revolutionary element here.
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ 또 λ‹€λ₯Έ 획기적인 μš”μ†Œκ°€ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:13
The amount of the dividend would grow
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νƒ„μ†Œμ„Έμ˜ λΉ„μœ¨μ΄ μƒμŠΉν•˜λ©΄μ„œ
06:16
as the carbon tax rate increases.
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λ°°λ‹ΉκΈˆ λΉ„μš©λ„ μƒμŠΉν•œλ‹€λŠ” κ±΄λ°μš”.
06:19
The more we protect our climate,
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κΈ°ν›„λ₯Ό λ³΄ν˜Έν• μˆ˜λ‘ μ‹œλ―Όλ“€μ΄ λ°›λŠ” ν˜œνƒμ΄ λŠ˜μ–΄λ‚˜λ©΄μ„œ
06:21
the more our citizens benefit.
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06:23
This creates a positive feedback loop,
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긍정적인 ν”Όλ“œλ°± 루프가 λ§Œλ“€μ–΄μ§€λ‹ˆκΉŒ
06:25
which is crucial,
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κΌ­ ν•„μš”ν•œ κ±°μ£ .
06:27
because the only way we will reach our long-term emission-reduction goals
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μ™œλƒν•˜λ©΄ μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μž₯기적으둜 λ°°μΆœλŸ‰ κ°μ†ŒλΌλŠ” λͺ©ν‘œμ— μ ‘κ·Όν•˜λŠ”
06:31
is if the carbon tax rate goes up every year.
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μœ μΌν•œ 방법은 νƒ„μ†Œ μ„Έμœ¨μ΄ 맀년 μƒμŠΉν•˜λŠ” 것이기 λ•Œλ¬Έμ΄μ£ .
06:34
The third pillar of our program is eliminating regulations
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우리 ν”„λ‘œκ·Έλž¨μ˜ μ„Έ 번째 기쑰둜써
νƒ„μ†Œμ„Έ λ°°λ‹ΉκΈˆ κ³„νšμ€
06:38
that are no longer needed
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더 이상 ν•„μš” μ—†λŠ” 규제λ₯Ό μ² νν•˜λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:40
once a carbon dividends plan is enacted.
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06:43
This is a key selling point to Republicans and business leaders.
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μ΄λŠ” 곡화당원듀과 경제 μ§€λ„μžλ“€μ„ μƒλŒ€λ‘œ
적극적으둜 섀득할 수 μžˆλŠ” μ£Όμš”ν•œ μž₯μ μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:50
So why should we trade
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κ·Έλ ‡λ‹€λ©΄ μš°λ¦¬λŠ” μ™œ
06:52
climate regulations for a price on carbon?
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κΈ°ν›„ μ‘°μ ˆμ„ νƒ„μ†Œμ— λ§€κΈ°λŠ” λΉ„μš©κ³Ό λ°”κΎΈμ–΄μ•Ό ν• κΉŒμš”?
06:55
Well, let me show you.
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μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„κ»˜ λ³΄μ—¬λ“œλ¦¬μ£ .
06:57
Our plan would achieve nearly twice the emissions reductions
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우리의 κ³„νšμœΌλ‘œ μ˜€λ°”λ§ˆ μ‹œμ ˆμ˜ λͺ¨λ“  κΈ°ν›„ 쑰절 정책보닀
07:02
of all Obama-era climate regulations combined,
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두 λ°° κ°€κΉŒμ΄ λ˜λŠ” κ°€μŠ€ λ°°μΆœλŸ‰μ΄ κ°μ†Œν•˜λŠ” νš¨κ³Όμ™€
07:06
and nearly three times the new baseline
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νŠΈλŸΌν”„ λŒ€ν†΅λ Ήμ΄ λͺ¨λ“  규제λ₯Ό μ² νν•œ λ’€μ˜
07:10
after President Trump repeals all of those regulations.
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μƒˆλ‘œμš΄ μ •μ±…λ³΄λ‹€λŠ” μ„Έ 배의 κ°μ†Œ 효과λ₯Ό 얻을 κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:14
That assumes a carbon tax starting at 40 dollars per ton,
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μ΄λŠ” νƒ„μ†Œμ„Έκ°€ 1톀당 40λ‹¬λŸ¬μ—μ„œ μ‹œμž‘ν•œλ‹€κ³  κ°€μ •ν•˜λŠ”λ°
07:18
which translates into roughly an extra 36 cents per gallon of gas.
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λŒ€μΆ© 1κ°€λ‘  λ‹Ή 36μ„ΌνŠΈκ°€ λœλ‹€λŠ” 계산이 λ‚˜μ˜΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:23
Our plan by itself
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우리 κ³„νšμ€ κ·Έ 자체둜
07:26
would meet the high end of America's commitment
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파리 κΈ°ν›„ ν˜‘μ •μ— 따라 미ꡭ이 이행해야 ν•˜λŠ” 의무λ₯Ό
07:30
under the Paris Climate Agreement,
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λ‹€ν•˜κ²Œ ν•˜λŠ” 것이죠.
07:32
and as you can see,
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그리고 λ³΄μ‹œλŠ” κ²ƒμ²˜λŸΌ
07:34
the emissions reductions would continue over time.
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λ°°μΆœλŸ‰ κ°μ†ŒλŠ” κ³„μ†ν•΄μ„œ μ΄λ£¨μ–΄μ§ˆ κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:37
This illustrates the power of a conservative climate solution
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이것은 μžμœ μ‹œμž₯κ³Ό μ œν•œλœ μ •λΆ€λ₯Ό
기초둜 ν•˜λ©° 보수적으둜 κΈ°ν›„ 문제λ₯Ό ν•΄κ²°ν•  λ•Œμ˜
07:43
based on free markets and limited government.
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μ €λ ₯을 μ‹€μ œλ‘œ 보여주고 μžˆλŠ”λ°μš”.
07:46
We would end up with less regulation
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κ²°κ΅­ 규제 κ°μ†Œμ™€
07:49
and far less pollution at the same time,
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ν™˜κ²½ μ˜€μ—Όμ˜ κ°œμ„ μ΄ λ™μ‹œμ— μ΄λ£¨μ–΄μ§ˆ κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:52
while helping working-class Americans get ahead.
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미ꡭ의 λ…Έλ™μž 계측이 λ°œμ „ν•˜λŠ” 데 도움을 주게 되죠.
07:56
Doesn't that sound like something we could all support?
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ 무쑰건 지지해야 ν•  것 같지 μ•ŠμŠ΅λ‹ˆκΉŒ?
07:59
(Applause)
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(λ°•μˆ˜)
08:05
The fourth and final pillar of our program is a new climate domino effect,
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ν”„λ‘œκ·Έλž¨μ˜ λ„€ 번째이자 λ§ˆμ§€λ§‰ κΈ°μ‘°λŠ” κ΅­κ²½μ„Έλ₯Ό 기반으둜 ν•˜λŠ”
08:10
based on border carbon adjustments.
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μƒˆλ‘œμš΄ κΈ°ν›„ 도미노 νš¨κ³ΌμΈλ°μš”.
08:12
Now that may sound complicated,
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λ³΅μž‘ν•˜κ²Œ 듀릴 수 μžˆμ§€λ§Œ
08:15
but it, too, is revolutionary,
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이 μ—­μ‹œ νšκΈ°μ μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:16
because it provides us a whole new strategy
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μ™œλƒν•˜λ©΄ μ΄λŠ” μš°λ¦¬μ—κ²Œ μ ˆλŒ€μ μœΌλ‘œ ν•„μš”ν•œ
08:19
to reach a global price on carbon,
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ꡭ제적인 νƒ„μ†Œ 가격을 μ •ν•˜λŠ”
08:22
which is ultimately what we need.
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μ™„μ „νžˆ μƒˆλ‘œμš΄ 해법을 μ œκ³΅ν•˜κΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμ΄μ£ .
08:24
Let me show you an example.
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예λ₯Ό λ“€μžλ©΄
08:26
Suppose Country A adopts a carbon dividends plan,
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νƒ„μ†Œ λ°°λ‹ΉκΈˆ κ³„νšμ„ μ±„νƒν•œ A λ‚˜λΌμ™€ 그렇지 μ•Šμ€ Bμ—κ²Œ
08:29
and Country B does not.
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08:31
Well, to level the playing field
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κ³΅ν‰ν•œ 경쟁의 μž₯을 λ§ˆλ ¨ν•œ ν›„
08:33
and protect the competitiveness of its industries,
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자ꡭ μ‚°μ—…μ˜ 경쟁λ ₯을 λ³΄ν˜Έν•˜λ €κ³ 
08:36
Country A would tax imports from Country B
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A λ‚˜λΌλŠ” νƒ„μ†Œ ν•¨μœ λŸ‰μ— κ·Όκ±°ν•œ μ„ΈκΈˆμ„ Bμ—μ„œ λ“€μ—¬μ˜€λŠ”
08:40
based on their carbon content.
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μˆ˜μž…ν’ˆμ— λΆ€κ³Όν•˜λ©΄
08:42
Fair enough.
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κ³΅ν‰ν•˜μ£ .
08:44
But here's where it gets really interesting,
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ μž¬λ°ŒλŠ” 건
08:46
because the money raised at the border would increase the dividends
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κ΅­κ²½μ—μ„œ μΈμƒλœ 가격은 λ°°λ‹ΉκΈˆμ„ μ¦κ°€μ‹œμΌœ
08:50
going to the citizens of Country A.
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A λ‚˜λΌμ˜ κ΅­λ―Όμ—κ²Œ λŒμ•„κ°€κΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμ΄μ£ .
08:52
Well, how long do you think it would take the public in Country B to realize
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B λ‚˜λΌμ˜ ꡭ민이 κ·Έ 돈이 μžμ‹ λ“€μ˜ 것인지 깨달을 λ•ŒκΉŒμ§€
08:56
that that money should be going to them,
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μ–Όλ§ˆλ‚˜ κ±Έλ¦΄κΉŒμš”?
08:58
and to push for a carbon dividends plan in their own land?
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λ˜ν•œ νƒ„μ†Œ λ°°λ‹ΉκΈˆ κ³„νšμ„ 자ꡭ으둜 λŒμ–΄μ˜€κΈ°κΉŒμ§€λŠ”μš”?
09:01
Add a few more countries,
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λͺ‡ 개의 λ‚˜λΌκ°€ 더해지면
09:03
and we get a new climate domino effect.
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μš°λ¦¬λŠ” μƒˆλ‘œμš΄ κΈ°ν›„ 도미노 효과λ₯Ό μ–»κ²Œ λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:07
Once one major country or region adopts carbon dividends
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ν•œ μ£Όμš” κ΅­κ°€λ‚˜ μ§€μ—­μ—μ„œ νƒ„μ†Œ λ°°λ‹ΉκΈˆμ„
κ΅­κ²½ κ°„ νƒ„μ†Œ λ°°μΆœλŸ‰μ— 따라 μ±„νƒν–ˆμ„ κ²½μš°μ—”
09:11
with border carbon adjustments,
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09:13
other countries are compelled to follow suit.
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λ‹€λ₯Έ λ‚˜λΌλ„ μ „λ‘€λ₯Ό 따라야 ν•˜λ‹ˆκΉŒ
09:15
One by one the dominoes fall.
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λ„λ―Έλ…Έμ²˜λŸΌ ν•˜λ‚˜μ”© μ“°λŸ¬μ§€λŠ” κ±°μ£ .
09:18
And this domino effect could start anywhere.
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그리고 이 도미노 νš¨κ³ΌλŠ” μ–΄λ””μ—μ„œλ“  μ‹œμž‘λ  수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:21
My preference, strongly, is the United States,
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개인적으둜 λ‹Ήμ—°νžˆ 미ꡭ이어야 ν•œλ‹€κ³  μƒκ°ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:24
but it could also start in the United Kingdom,
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ μ˜κ΅­μ—μ„œ μ‹œμž‘λ  μˆ˜λ„ 있고
09:27
in Germany or another European country,
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λ…μΌμ΄λ‚˜ λ‹€λ₯Έ μœ λŸ½κ΅­κ°€λ‚˜
09:29
or even in China.
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쀑ꡭ이 될 μˆ˜λ„ 있죠.
09:31
Let's take China as an example.
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쀑ꡭ을 예둜 λ“€μ–΄λ΄…μ‹œλ‹€.
09:33
China is committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions,
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쀑ꡭ은 μ˜¨μ‹€κ°€μŠ€ λ°°μΆœμ„ μ€„μ΄λŠ”λ° μ΅œμ„ μ„ λ‹€ν•˜κ³  μžˆμ§€λ§Œ
09:38
but what its leaders care even more about
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쀑ꡭ μ§€λ„μžλ“€μ€ 자ꡭ의 κ²½μ œκ°€ μ†ŒλΉ„μžκ°€ μ£Όλ„μ˜
09:40
is transitioning their economy to consumer-led economic development.
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μ†ŒλΉ„ μœ„μ£Όλ‘œ λ°œμ „ν•˜λŠ” 것에 더 관심이 많죠.
09:45
Well, nothing could do more to hasten that transition
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κ·Έλž˜λ„ μ€‘κ΅­μ˜ λͺ¨λ“  κ΅­λ―Όμ—κ²Œ 맀달 λ°°λ‹ΉκΈˆμ„ λ‚˜λˆ μ£ΌλŠ” 것보닀
09:48
than giving every Chinese citizen a monthly dividend.
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더 λΉ λ₯΄κ²Œ λ³€ν™”λ₯Ό κ°€μ Έμ˜¬ 수 μžˆλŠ” 것은 μ—†μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:52
In fact, this is the only policy solution
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사싀상 이것은 쀑ꡭ이 μ •μΉ˜μ μœΌλ‘œ μ ‘κ·Όν•΄μ„œ
09:55
that would enable China to meet its environmental and economic goals
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ν™˜κ²½μ΄λ‚˜ 경제적 λͺ©ν‘œλ₯Ό λ™μ‹œμ— 이룰 수 μžˆλŠ”
09:59
at the same time.
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μœ μΌν•œ ν•΄κ²°μ±…μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
10:00
That's why this is the killer app of climate policy,
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κ·Έλž˜μ„œ λ°”λ‘œ κΈ°ν›„ μ •μ±…μ˜ ν‚¬λŸ¬μ•±μ΄λΌ ν•  수 있죠.
10:03
because it would enable us to overcome
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ 이전해 λ…Όμ˜ν–ˆλ˜
λ‹€μŒκ³Ό 같은 각각의 μž₯벽듀을 κ·Ήλ³΅ν•˜κ²Œ ν•΄μ„œμ£ .
10:07
each of the barriers we discussed earlier:
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10:09
the psychological barrier, the partisan barrier,
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심리적 μž₯λ²½κ³Ό λ‹ΉνŒŒμ μΈ μž₯λ²½
10:12
and, as we've just seen, the geopolitical barrier.
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ 방금 λͺ©κ²©ν–ˆλ˜ 지정학적 μž₯벽듀이죠.
10:16
All we need is a country to lead the way.
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μš°λ¦¬μ—κ²Œ ν•„μš”ν•œ 것은 λ¨Όμ € λ‚˜μ„€ κ΅­κ°€μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
10:20
And one method of finding what you're looking for
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μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ΄ ν•„μš”ν•œ 것을 λ§ˆλ ¨ν•  ν•œ 가지 방법은
10:22
is to take out an ad.
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κ΄‘κ³ λ₯Ό ν•˜λ‚˜ λ³΄λŠ” κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€.
10:24
So let's read this one together.
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ν•¨κ»˜ μ½μ–΄λ΄…μ‹œλ‹€.
10:26
Wanted: country to pioneer carbon dividends plan.
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νƒ„μ†Œμ„Έ κ³„νšμ— μ•žμž₯μ„€ λ‚˜λΌ 급ꡬ.
10:30
Cost to country: zero.
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κ΅­κ°€ λΆ€λ‹΄ λΉ„μš© μ—†μŒ.
10:32
Starting date: as soon as possible.
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μ΅œλŒ€ν•œ λΉ λ₯Έ μ‹œμΌ 내에 μ‹œμž‘ν•  κ²ƒμž„.
10:35
Advantages: most effective climate solution,
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νŠΉν˜œλ‘œλŠ” κ°€μž₯ 효과적인 κΈ°ν›„ 문제 해결책을 μ œμ‹œν•˜λŠ”λ°
10:38
popular and populist,
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맀λ ₯적이고 λŒ€μ€‘μ˜ 인기λ₯Ό 끌며
10:40
pro-growth and pro-business,
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친 μ„±μž₯적이고 친 기업적인 데닀가
10:42
shrinks government and helps the working class.
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μ •λΆ€μ˜ 역할은 μΆ•μ†Œν•˜κ³  λ…Έλ™μž 계측을 λ„μ™€μ€Œ.
10:47
Additional compensation: gratitude of current and future generations,
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μΆ”κ°€ ν˜œνƒμ€ ν˜„μž¬μ™€ 미래 μ„ΈλŒ€κ°€ κ³ λ§ˆμ›€μ„ λŠλ‚Œ.
10:53
including my daughter.
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우리 λ”ΈκΉŒμ§€ 포함함.
10:56
Thank you.
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κ³ λ§™μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
10:57
(Applause)
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(λ°•μˆ˜)
11:04
Chris Anderson: Just one question for you, Ted.
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크리슀: 질문이 μžˆλŠ”λ°μš”.
11:09
I'm actually not sure
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TEDμ—μ„œ
11:10
I've seen a conservative get a standing O at TED before that.
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κΈ°λ¦½λ°•μˆ˜λ₯Ό 받은 λ³΄μˆ˜μ£Όμ˜μžλŠ” μ—¬νƒœ λͺ» λ³Έ κ±° κ°™κ΅°μš”
11:13
That's pretty cool.
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ν›Œλ₯­ν•΄μš”.
11:15
The logic seems really powerful,
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μ•„μ£Ό 논리적인 κ±° κ°™μ§€λ§Œ
11:17
but some people you talk to in politics
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μ•„κΉŒ μ–ΈκΈ‰ν•˜μ‹  μ •μΉ˜κ°€λ“€ λ§λ‘œλŠ”
11:19
say it's hard to imagine this still getting through Congress.
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이 κ³„νšμ΄ ꡭ회λ₯Ό ν†΅κ³Όν•˜λŠ” 것은 상상쑰차도 μ–΄λ ΅λ‹€κ³  ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
11:23
How are you feeling about momentum behind this?
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이 괴리에 λŒ€ν•΄μ„œλŠ” μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ μƒκ°ν•˜μ‹­λ‹ˆκΉŒ?
11:26
Ted Halstead: So I understand that many are very pessimistic
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ν…Œλ“œ: 저도 νŠΈλŸΌν”„ λŒ€ν†΅λ Ήμ΄ μ§‘κΆŒν•˜λŠ” λ―Έκ΅­μ—μ„œ
11:29
about what's happening in the United States with President Trump.
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μΌμ–΄λ‚˜λŠ” 일둜 λ§Žμ€ 뢄이 λΉ„κ΄€μ μ΄μ§€λ§Œ
11:32
I'm less pessimistic; here's why.
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μ „ μ’€ λ‹€λ₯Έλ°μš”.
11:34
The actions of this White House, the early actions on climate,
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이전에 ν–ˆλ˜ λ°±μ•…κ΄€μ˜ μ‘°μΉ˜μ™€ κΈ°ν›„ 문제 정책은
11:37
are just the first move in a complex game of climate chess.
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κΈ°ν›„ μ²΄μŠ€λΌλŠ” λ³΅μž‘ν•œ κ²Œμž„μ˜
첫 번째 μ›€μ§μž„μ— λΆˆκ³Όν–ˆμ„ 뿐 μ•„λ‹ˆλΌ
11:43
So far it's been a repeal-only strategy;
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폐지할 μˆ˜λ°–μ— μ—†λŠ” μ „λž΅μ΄κΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμ΄μ£ .
11:45
the pressure is going to mount for a replacement program,
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λŒ€μ²΄ ν”„λ‘œκ·Έλž¨μ„ μš”κ΅¬ν•˜λŠ” 압박이 κ±°μ„Έμ§€λŠ” μ‹œμ μ—μ„œ
11:48
which is where we come in.
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저희가 κ΄€μ—¬ν–ˆμœΌλ‹ˆκΉŒμš”.
11:49
And there are three reasons why, which I'll go through real quickly.
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그리고 μ„Έ 가지 이유λ₯Ό λΉ λ₯΄κ²Œ μ •λ¦¬ν•΄λ“œλ¦¬λ©΄
첫 번째, 경제 κ³΅λ™μ²΄λŠ” 기본적으둜 κΈ°ν›„ 변화에선
11:53
One, the business community is fundamentally parting ways
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11:56
with the White House on climate change.
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λ°±μ•…κ΄€κ³Ό λ‹€λ₯Έ 길을 κ°€κ³  μžˆκ±°λ“ μš”.
11:58
In fact, we're finding
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μ €ν¬λŠ” ν¬μΆ˜μ§€κ°€ μ„ μ •ν•œ
11:59
a number of Fortune 100 companies supporting our program.
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100λŒ€ κΈ°μ—… 쀑 우리 ν”„λ‘œκ·Έλž¨μ„ μ§€μ§€ν•˜λŠ” 기업을 μ°Ύκ³  있으며
12:03
Within two months, we're going to be announcing
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두 달 내에 이 ν”„λ‘œκ·Έλž¨μ„ μ§€μ§€ν•˜λŠ”
12:05
some really surprising names coming out in favor of this program.
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깜짝 λ†€λž„λ§Œν•œ κΈ°μ—…λ“€μ˜ 이름을 λ°œν‘œν•  κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
12:08
Two, there is no issue in American politics
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두 번째, κ³΅ν™”λ‹Ήμ˜ 기반과 κ³΅ν™”λ‹Ήμ˜ 리더십 사이에
12:11
where there's a more fundamental gap between the Republican base
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κΈ°ν›„ 변화보닀 더 근본적인 격차λ₯Ό μ§€λ‹Œ μ΄μŠˆλŠ”
12:15
and the Republican leadership than climate change.
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λ―Έκ΅­ μ •μΉ˜ λ‚΄μ—λŠ” μ—†μ–΄μ„œμ£ .
12:18
And three, thinking of this analogy of chess,
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μ„Έ λ²ˆμ§ΈλŠ”...
μ²΄μŠ€μ— λΉ—λŒ€μ„œ 생각해보면
12:23
the big decision up ahead is: Does the administration stay in Paris?
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μ•žμ— 놓인 μ€‘λŒ€ν•œ μ‚¬μ•ˆμ€
파리 ν˜‘μ • 지지 여뢀인데 μ–‘μΈ‘μ˜ μž…μž₯을 κ³ λ €ν•΄μ„œ
12:27
Well, let's pan it out both ways.
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κ³„νšν•΄μ•Ό ν•˜μž–μ•„μš”.
12:29
If it stays in Paris, as many are pushing for in the administration,
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λ§Žμ€ 이듀이 μš”κ΅¬ν•˜λŠ” κ²ƒμ²˜λŸΌ ν–‰μ •λΆ€κ°€ 파리 ν˜‘μ •μ„ μ§€μ§€ν•œλ‹€λ©΄
12:32
well then that begs a question: What's the plan?
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질문이 이어지겠죠.
"무슨 κ³„νšμ΄λƒ?"κ³  ν•˜μ‹œλ©΄ μ €ν¬ν•œν…Œ μžˆλ‹€κ³  λ§μ”€λ“œλ¦΄κ²Œμš”
12:35
We have the plan.
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12:37
But if they don't stay in Paris,
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ 그듀이 파리 ν˜‘μ •μ„ μ§€μ§€ν•˜μ§€ μ•ŠλŠ”λ‹€λ©΄
12:39
the international pressure will be overwhelming.
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ꡭ제적인 압박은 μ—„μ²­λ‚  κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
12:41
Our Secretary of State will be asking other countries for NATO contributions,
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미ꡭ의 ꡭ무μž₯관이 μ—¬λŸ¬ κ΅­κ°€λ“€μ—κ²Œ NATO μΆœμ—°κΈˆμ„ μš”μ²­ν•  λ•Œ
12:45
and they'll be saying, "No, give us our Paris commitment.
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그듀은 "아뇨, 파리 ν˜‘μ •μ˜ 약속뢀터 μ§€ν‚€μ„Έμš”
12:48
Come through on your commitments, we'll come through on ours."
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κ·Έλ ‡κ²Œ ν•˜λ©΄ μš°λ¦¬λ„ 지킀겠닀"κ³  ν•˜κ² μ£ .
λ”°λΌμ„œ ꡭ제적, 사업적 μž…μž₯ 심지어 κ³΅ν™”λ‹Ήμ˜ μž…μž₯κΉŒμ§€
12:51
So, international, business and even the Republican base
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12:54
will all be calling for a Republican replacement plan.
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λͺ¨λ‘ κ³΅ν™”λ‹Ήμ˜ λŒ€μ²΄ κ³„νšμ„ μš”κ΅¬ν•˜κ²Œ 될 ν…λ°μš”.
12:58
And, hopefully, we've provided one.
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λ‹€ν–‰μŠ€λŸ½κ²Œλ„ 저희가 κ·Έ κ³„νšμ„ μ œμ‹œν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:01
CA: Thank you so much, Ted.
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CA: κ³ λ§ˆμ›Œμš”. TH: κ³ λ§™μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:02
TH: Thank you, Chris.
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13:03
(Applause)
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(λ°•μˆ˜)
이 μ›Ήμ‚¬μ΄νŠΈ 정보

이 μ‚¬μ΄νŠΈλŠ” μ˜μ–΄ ν•™μŠ΅μ— μœ μš©ν•œ YouTube λ™μ˜μƒμ„ μ†Œκ°œν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ „ 세계 졜고의 μ„ μƒλ‹˜λ“€μ΄ κ°€λ₯΄μΉ˜λŠ” μ˜μ–΄ μˆ˜μ—…μ„ 보게 될 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€. 각 λ™μ˜μƒ νŽ˜μ΄μ§€μ— ν‘œμ‹œλ˜λŠ” μ˜μ–΄ μžλ§‰μ„ 더블 ν΄λ¦­ν•˜λ©΄ κ·Έκ³³μ—μ„œ λ™μ˜μƒμ΄ μž¬μƒλ©λ‹ˆλ‹€. λΉ„λ””μ˜€ μž¬μƒμ— 맞좰 μžλ§‰μ΄ μŠ€ν¬λ‘€λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ˜κ²¬μ΄λ‚˜ μš”μ²­μ΄ μžˆλŠ” 경우 이 문의 양식을 μ‚¬μš©ν•˜μ—¬ λ¬Έμ˜ν•˜μ‹­μ‹œμ˜€.

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