Why good ideas get trapped in the valley of death— and how to rescue them

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Amanda Zhu

They’ve passed every test, cleared every hurdle, jumped through every hoop.

它們通過了每一場試煉，

排除了每一道障礙， 克服了每一個困難。

Now, all that remains is to unleash them on the world.

現在就只剩下放手 讓它們去闖天下了。

But wait— what’s this?

但，等等——這是什麼？

Ah, yes, there’s one more challenge. They must now across the valley of death.

啊，是的，還有一項挑戰。

它們必須要通過死亡之谷。

All new products must pass through here before they reach the market.

所有的新產品都必須 通過這裡，才能進入市場。

Many never make it out, and sometimes that’s OK—

許多產品都沒有走出來， 有時，那也不打緊——

if they don’t work, don’t fill a need, or for any number of other reasons.

也許它們行不通，無法滿足需求， 或者許多其他理由。

But inventions that could help address massive global issues also face this risk.

但用來處理重大全球議題的發明

也得面對這種風險。

That’s because a technology’s potential isn’t the only factor

因為一項技術是否會成功，

並不是單看它的潛力而已。

that determines whether it will succeed.

The valley of death is especially risky for innovations

對於非軟體的複雜實體產品

involving complex physical objects as opposed to software,

以及相關規定特別多的產業，

and for those in highly regulated industries,

像是醫藥、建材、交通，

like medicine, building materials, and transportation.

死亡之谷的風險特別高。

Regulations and other obstacles aren’t inherently bad—

產業的規定和其他障礙 在本質上並不是不好，

they’re often designed to keep people safe—

這些都是為了確保大家的安全，

but they do tend to scare off investors,

但它們確實可能會把投資者嚇跑，

and that’s what traps good ideas in the valley of death:

好點子就因此被困在死亡之谷：

their funding dries up before they can become profitable.

在開始獲利之前，資金就先燒光了。

One of the fields where this problem is most pressing today

現今，最迫切需要解決 這個問題的領域

is zero-carbon technologies.

就是零碳科技。

They’re essential to our future

零碳科技對我們的未來十分重要，

because they will help us eliminate greenhouse gas emissions

因為這類科技會協助我們 消滅溫室氣體排放，

and stabilize our climate.

並穩定我們的氣候。

But they also have features that make them particularly vulnerable

但它們的一些特性 讓它們在死亡之谷當中

in the valley of death.

顯得特別脆弱。

Let’s look at why that is, and how we can change it.

我們來看看何以如此， 以及我們要如何改變這個狀況。

All new technologies must go through a development phase

所有的新技術都要經過開發階段，

before they can become profitable.

然後才可能開始獲利。

For zero-carbon technologies,

對零碳科技而言，

the costs of this phase are high, the timelines are long,

這個階段的成本很高， 時間表也會拉得很長，

and, in spite of the good they can do,

且，儘管它們能有很好的貢獻，

demand is often low because they can require big changes

需求通常很低，因為若要使用它們，

in both infrastructure and consumer behavior.

可能基礎設施和消費者行為 都得做很大的改變。

For example, electric heat pumps don’t burn fossil fuels and,

比如，電冷、暖氣機 不用燃燒化石燃料，

when you factor in savings on energy use,

且，若把省下的能源也算進來，

are cost-competitive with gas furnaces,

和燃氣暖爐相比很有成本競爭力，

but homeowners only change their heating and cooling systems every few decades.

但屋主通常要幾十年才會 變更一次他們的冷氣和暖氣系統。

Direct air capture technologies, meanwhile,

同時，空氣捕集技術

remove CO2 directly from the atmosphere.

可以直接除去大氣中的二氧化碳。

We need these technologies to reach our emissions goals,

我們需要這些技術 來達成我們的排放目標，

and several of them have already been proven to work,

且這些技術中有好幾項 已被證明可行，

but they’re at risk of getting trapped in the valley of death

但它們都有被困在 死亡之谷當中的風險，

because they're expensive.

因為它們很昂貴。

This creates a vicious cycle because the best way to lower costs

這就造成了惡性循環，

因為降低成本的最佳辦法， 就是，嗯，練習：

is by, well, practicing: making more of a product and refining it.

一直做同樣的產品並把它越改越好。

But high initial costs scare off investors,

但很高的初始成本會把投資者嚇跑，

and without their money,

若沒有他們的錢，公司就無法 繼續開發它們的技術——

companies can’t continue to develop their technologies—

and can't ultimately decrease costs.

最終就無法降低成本。

Fortunately, there’s a way to break this cycle:

幸運的是，有個方法 可以打破這種循環：

governments can help close the gap,

政府能在私人投資者不願資助

when private investors won’t fund technologies

這類很可能對社會相當有益的技術時，

with such a high potential for social benefit.

協助彌補差距，

This isn’t just theoretical:

這不只是個理論：

in the 1990s, functioning solar panels existed,

1990 年代時就已經有 可以運作的太陽能板了，

but weren’t widely adopted because of their cost.

但因為成本太高，沒有被廣為使用。

To change this, Germany offered government loans to companies creating solar panels,

為了改變這個狀況， 德國提供政府貸款

給製造太陽能板的公司，

and legally obligated utility companies

並在法律上規定 水、電等公用設施公司，

to buy electricity produced using renewable energy.

必須要購買再生能源電力。

The U.S. and China followed suit by financing major solar panel projects.

美國和中國有樣學樣，

資助大型太陽能板計畫。

The cost of solar has dropped almost 90% since 2009,

2009 年後至今，太陽能的成本 就降低了近 90%，

making it much easier to adopt.

使用太陽能變得更容易。

A similar thing happened for wind energy:

風能也遇到了類似的狀況：

during the oil crisis of the 1970s, Denmark invested in wind power

1970 年代發生石油危機時，

丹麥投資風力發電，

and started taxing winds’ fossil fuel-based competitors.

並針對和風力競爭的 化石燃料公司課稅。

Other countries took similar steps,

其他國家也採取類似的步驟，

and as more wind power was generated worldwide,

隨著全世界的風力發電 產量越來越高，

the costs of this technology dropped dramatically.

這項技術的成本大幅下降。

These success stories tell us that government initiatives work—

這些成功故事告訴我們， 靠政府計畫是可行的——

initiatives like boosting spending on research and development,

這些計畫包括增加花在研發上的預算、

offering tax and loan incentives to startups

提供減稅和貸款相關的獎勵

that want to develop zero-carbon technologies

給想發展零碳技術的新興公司 與欲購買這些技術的消費者，

and consumers who want to buy them, and putting a price on carbon emissions.

以及設定碳排放的價格。

We need governments to do what they did for solar and wind

我們需要政府把它們 在太陽能和風力上的做為

for many more innovations.

延伸到更多創新上。

At the end of the day, ideas and inventions alone

到頭來，光靠點子和發明

can’t solve our most daunting problems—

無法解決我們最棘手的問題——

policies and markets have to be shaped

政策和市場必需調整，

so the most promising technologies can succeed.

最有潛力的技術才有可能成功。