Pros and cons of public opinion polls - Jason Robert Jaffe

Pros and cons of public opinion polls - Jason Robert Jaffe

Transcriber: Andrea McDonough Reviewer: Jessica Ruby

翻译人员: Izzie HE 校对人员: Danny Wang

We are constantly asked for our opinions.

我们经常被问及想法

Which team do you think will win the Super Bowl?

哪支球队会赢得超级碗？

Who wore it better on the red carpet?

红地毯上谁穿着更佳？

Who are you going to vote for for mayor?

你选谁当市长？

Public opinion polls are everywhere.

民意调查无处不在

Important decision makers in American government

美国政府的重要决策者

have long relied on public opinion polls

在选举中和重要立法上

throughout elections and important legislation.

常常参考民意调查

The problem is public opinion isn't easy to track

但民意不是那么容易捉摸

and, often times, isn't even right.

有时甚至不准确

In 1948, the <i>Chicago Daily Tribune</i> ran a now famous headline:

1948年，《芝加哥论坛报》刊登一则头条

"Dewey Defeats Truman,"

“杜威击败杜鲁门”

they cried in big, bold, black and white letters.

标题用黑白相间大号加粗字体

The problem is

而事实上

that Dewey hadn't defeated Truman.

杜威还没有击败杜鲁门

The <i>Tribune</i> had relied on polls to come to their conclusion.

该报通过民意调查得出这一结论

Whoops!

哗！

This happens all the time because public opinion polls

这种事经常发生

are either inaccurate or misleading.

因为民意调查往往容易误导人

So, why are they wrong?

民调怎么会是错的？

And why do we keep using them?

而且我们还继续沿用？

First, let's start with an important term:

我们先从一个重要的术语开始

sample.

样本

A sample is the group of people

样本是指一群人

that respond to questions during a public opinion poll.

他们参与问卷调查

A poll's quality rests largely on its sample,

民调的质量跟样本息息相关

and a sample can be bad in a few key ways.

但样本在一些重要方面有局限

It can be too small,

可能数量太少

too narrow,

范围太窄

or the poll itself can be too difficult.

或者本身难度高

Polls that are too small are bad for obvious reasons.

样本太小引起的缺点很明显

And while you can't possibly ask

由于你不可能搜集到

every single person in America for their opinion,

每一个美国人的意见

the more people you ask,

因此，你调查的人越多

the more accurate your prediction.

得出的结论就越可靠

Polls that are too narrow,

那些范围太窄的调查

that only ask a certain type of person a question,

只问固定一种人一个问题

are bad, too.

也很不好

Consider a poll about whether or not

假设一个调查是关于

the potato is the best vegetable in America.

土豆是否是美国最好的蔬菜

If you only asked people in Idaho,

如果你只问爱达荷州人

where the state food is the potato,

那里盛产土豆

chances are that you would get a much different answer

你得到的结果很可能会不同于

than if you asked people in the state of New Mexico,

在新墨西哥州的调查结果

where the state vegetable is beans.

因为那里盛产豆类

Getting the right kind of diversity in your sample

选择合适比例的调查人群

means making sure that your sample has a range

意味着你要保证调查人群有不同的年龄

of ages,

races,

种族

genders,

and geographic regions,

性别

地域差异等等

just to name a few.

Finally, polls that are too hard can't tell you much either.

最后，调查很难告诉你很多事情

If you're asking people for their opinions on things

如果你问人们对于一些事物的看法

about which they have no prior knowledge,

关于一些他们没有优势的知识领域

the results will be pointless.

结果很可能是没有意义的

You're better off shaking a Magic 8 ball.

还不如占卜问卦来的准

It's not just the people you're asking

调查不仅仅跟受访者的偏见有关

that can cause bias, though.

The person doing the asking is part of the problem, too.

问问题的人也会影响结果

That's called interviewer bias.

那是叫做调查者偏见

Interviewer bias is all about the effect

调查者偏见在于问问题的时候

that the person asking the questions

has on the sample.

把自己的想法在无形中影响调查对象

Humans generally don't like confrontation.

人普遍不喜欢面对现实

People worry that their answers may make them look bad.

害怕自己的回答会让自己难看

Therefore, we find that people tend to give

于是，我们发现人们更倾向于

socially desirable responses,

提供一些看似更社会化的答案

not necessarily their honest opinions,

那不一定是真实想法

because they don't want to come across

因为他们不想被认为是没心没肺

as heartless,

racist,

种族歧视

or bigoted.

或者是心胸狭窄的人

And the way we word our questions matters too.

此外，问题的叙述方式也有影响

When polls purposely sway the answers one way or the other,

当调查有目的的把答案指向一方

it's called a push poll

这种行为叫推动调查

because it pushes people to answer a certain way.

因为它暗示人们向某个答案回答

"Would you vote for candidate Smith?"

“你会投给史密斯候选人吗?”

is a perfectly normal question.

是个典型的例子

"Would you vote for candidate Smith

“如果你知道史密斯剥夺年长公民的权利

if you knew that he robs senior citizens?"

你还会选他妈？“

is a push poll.

也是一个推动调查

So, if polls are open

所以，如果调查包容伪造和误差

to all sorts of manipulation and inaccuracies,

why are they still so prevalent?

为什么还很流行？

Despite their flaws, public opinion polls provide us

尽管民意调查有缺陷

但还是能够反映大众想法和心情

with some sense of the thoughts and moods

of large groups of people.

They offer politicians the chance to pass legislation

民意调查促进政治家

they think a majority of Americans will support.

通过他们认为大部分美国人支持的法律

They help fashionistas on TV

让电视上时髦的人知道

know which star wore the dress better on the red carpet.

哪位明星走红毯时的衣着更佳

Finally, they make us,

最后，民调让我们这些参加投票的人

the people who get polled,

feel as though our voice has been heard.

觉得自己的意见得到表达

So, next time you get a phone call asking your opinion,

因此，下次你接到电话调查

or if you see a poll online,

或看到在线调查时

take some time to think about who is asking

想想是谁在调查

and why they're asking.

为什么要问这些问题？

Then, take that poll, and its results,

然后以批判的眼光

with a grain of salt

去看待民意调查及其结果

or a potato.