Pros and cons of public opinion polls - Jason Robert Jaffe

Transcriber: Andrea McDonough Reviewer: Jessica Ruby

Translator: Faradila Zuchrina Reviewer: Hafizh Alfarisi

We are constantly asked for our opinions.

Kita selalu dimintai pendapat.

Menurutmu, tim mana yang akan menang di Super Bowl?

Which team do you think will win the Super Bowl?

Who wore it better on the red carpet?

Siapa yang lebih menarik di karpet merah?

Who are you going to vote for for mayor?

Siapa yang kau pilih sebagai wali kota?

Public opinion polls are everywhere.

Jajak pendapat di mana-mana.

Important decision makers in American government

Pembuat keputusan di pemerintahan Amerika sudah lama bergantung pada jajak pendapat

have long relied on public opinion polls

selama pemilu dan perundang-undangan.

throughout elections and important legislation.

Masalahnya, opini publik tak mudah dilacak dan sering kali tidak selalu benar.

The problem is public opinion isn't easy to track

and, often times, isn't even right.

In 1948, the <i>Chicago Daily Tribune</i> ran a now famous headline:

Pada 1948, koran Chicago Daily Tribune menulis tajuk berita yang terkenal,

"Dewey Defeats Truman,"

“Dewey Mengalahkan Truman”,

they cried in big, bold, black and white letters.

dengan huruf bercetak hitam yang besar dan tebal.

The problem is

Masalahnya adalah Dewey belum mengalahkan Truman.

that Dewey hadn't defeated Truman.

The <i>Tribune</i> had relied on polls to come to their conclusion.

Tribune mengandalkan survei untuk menarik kesimpulan itu.

Ups!

Whoops!

This happens all the time because public opinion polls

Hal ini kerap terjadi sebab jajak pendapat entah tidak akurat atau menyesatkan.

are either inaccurate or misleading.

So, why are they wrong?

Lalu, kenapa jajak pendapat keliru dan kenapa kita tetap memakainya?

And why do we keep using them?

First, let's start with an important term:

Pertama, mari mulai dengan sebuah istilah penting:

sample.

sampel.

A sample is the group of people

Sampel adalah sekelompok orang yang merespons pertanyaan jajak pendapat.

that respond to questions during a public opinion poll.

A poll's quality rests largely on its sample,

Kualitas jajak pendapat bergantung pada sampelnya.

Sampel bisa jadi buruk bila didapat dari segelintir cara.

and a sample can be bad in a few key ways.

Sampel bisa terlalu sedikit,

It can be too small,

too narrow,

terlalu sempit,

or the poll itself can be too difficult.

atau surveinya sendiri terlalu rumit.

Polls that are too small are bad for obvious reasons.

Survei yang terlalu kecil sudah jelas hasilnya buruk.

And while you can't possibly ask

Meski tak mungkin menanyai tiap individu di Amerika,

every single person in America for their opinion,

the more people you ask,

makin banyak orang yang ditanya, makin akurat prediksimu.

the more accurate your prediction.

Polls that are too narrow,

Survei yang terlalu sempit, yang hanya menanyai orang-orang tertentu,

that only ask a certain type of person a question,

are bad, too.

juga buruk.

Consider a poll about whether or not

Sebagai contoh, ada sebuah survei: kentang adalah sayuran terbaik di Amerika.

the potato is the best vegetable in America.

If you only asked people in Idaho,

Jika kau cuma bertanya ke warga Idaho yang daerahnya terkenal dengan kentang,

where the state food is the potato,

chances are that you would get a much different answer

ada kemungkinan jawaban yang didapat berbeda

than if you asked people in the state of New Mexico,

dengan saat kau menanyakan warga New Mexico

where the state vegetable is beans.

yang daerahnya terkenal dengan kacang-kacangan.

Getting the right kind of diversity in your sample

Menentukan keberagaman sampel yang tepat berarti memastikan sampelmu bervariasi

means making sure that your sample has a range

of ages,

dari usia, ras, gender, dan wilayah geografis

races,

genders,

and geographic regions,

just to name a few.

sebagai contohnya.

Finally, polls that are too hard can't tell you much either.

Terakhir, survei yang terlalu rumit tidak bisa menjelaskan apa pun.

If you're asking people for their opinions on things

Jika kau menanyakan pendapat orang-orang

about which they have no prior knowledge,

tentang hal yang belum diketahui sebelumnya,

the results will be pointless.

hasilnya akan sia-sia.

You're better off shaking a Magic 8 ball.

Lebih baik kau bertanya pada bola Magic-8.

It's not just the people you're asking

Bukan hanya orang yang ditanya yang bisa menyebabkan bias.

that can cause bias, though.

The person doing the asking is part of the problem, too.

Orang yang bertanya pun menjadi bagian permasalahan.

That's called interviewer bias.

Itulah yang disebut bias pewawancara.

Bias pewawancara adalah efek yang ditimbulkan pewawancara

Interviewer bias is all about the effect

that the person asking the questions

has on the sample.

terhadap sampel.

Pada umumnya, manusia tak suka pertikaian.

Humans generally don't like confrontation.

People worry that their answers may make them look bad.

Orang-orang khawatir jawabannya membuat mereka terlihat buruk.

Therefore, we find that people tend to give

Karenanya, orang-orang cenderung memberi respons yang diterima masyarakat

socially desirable responses,

not necessarily their honest opinions,

dan belum tentu pendapat sejujurnya.

because they don't want to come across

Sebab, mereka tak mau disebut kejam, rasis, atau fanatik.

as heartless,

racist,

or bigoted.

And the way we word our questions matters too.

Cara kita merangkai pertanyaan pun penting.

When polls purposely sway the answers one way or the other,

Survei yang sengaja memengaruhi jawaban dengan cara tertentu

it's called a push poll

disebut propaganda jajak pendapat

because it pushes people to answer a certain way.

karena mendorong orang untuk menjawab pilihan tertentu.

"Would you vote for candidate Smith?"

“Apakah kau akan memilih Smith?” adalah pertanyaan yang tentunya normal.

is a perfectly normal question.

"Would you vote for candidate Smith

“Apakah kau akan memilih Smith jika kau tahu dia merampok lansia?”

if you knew that he robs senior citizens?"

is a push poll.

adalah propaganda jajak pendapat.

So, if polls are open

Jika survei rentan terhadap segala macam manipulasi dan ketidakakuratan,

to all sorts of manipulation and inaccuracies,

why are they still so prevalent?

mengapa masih sering dipakai?

Despite their flaws, public opinion polls provide us

Meski ada kekurangan, jajak pendapat memberikan kita

with some sense of the thoughts and moods

beberapa pemikiran dan suasana hati sekelompok besar orang;

of large groups of people.

They offer politicians the chance to pass legislation

menawarkan politikus kesempatan meresmikan aturan

they think a majority of Americans will support.

yang dianggap akan didukung sebagian besar warga Amerika;

They help fashionistas on TV

membantu fesyenista di TV

know which star wore the dress better on the red carpet.

mengetahui siapa yang berbusana lebih baik di karpet merah.

Finally, they make us,

Terakhir, jajak pendapat membuat kita, orang-orang yang disurvei,

the people who get polled,

feel as though our voice has been heard.

merasa seolah-olah suaranya didengar.

So, next time you get a phone call asking your opinion,

Jadi, saat kau ditelepon dan dimintai pendapat

or if you see a poll online,

atau melihat survei daring,

take some time to think about who is asking

pikirkan sejenak siapa yang bertanya dan kenapa mereka bertanya.

and why they're asking.

Then, take that poll, and its results,

Lalu, jawab survei tersebut dan ragukan hasilnya

with a grain of salt

bagai garam yang tak asin

or a potato.

atau kentang hambar.