The Boltzmann brain paradox - Fabio Pacucci

Prevodilac: Milenka Okuka Lektor: Ivana Korom

How do you know you’re a person who has lived your life,

Kako znate da ste osoba koja je živela svoj život,

rather than a just-formed brain full of artificial memories,

a ne tek formiran mozak ispunjen veštačkim sećanjima,

momentarily hallucinating a reality that doesn't actually exist?

koji trenutno halucinira stvarnost koja zapravo ne postoji?

That may sound absurd,

Ovo može da zvuči apsurdno,

but it’s kept several generations of top cosmologists up at night.

ali je držalo nekoliko generacija najboljih kosmologa budnim po noći.

They call it the Boltzmann brain paradox.

Pojava nosi naziv: paradoks Bolcmanovog mozga.

Its namesake, Ludwig Boltzmann, was a 19th century physicist

Njen prezimenjak, Ludvig Bolcman je bio fizičar iz XIX veka

operating in a period when scientists were passionately debating

koji je radio u periodu kada su naučnici strastveno raspravljali

whether the universe had existed for an infinite or finite time.

da li univerzum postoji beskonačan ili konačan vremenski period.

Boltzmann’s main claim to fame was revolutionizing thermodynamics,

Glavni razlog Bolcmanove slave je to što je unapredio termodinamiku,

the branch of physics that studies energy.

granu fizike koja izučava energiju.

He put forward a new interpretation of entropy,

Izneo je novo tumačenje entropije,

which is a measure of the disorder of a system.

tj. mere neuređenosti sistema.

A glass is an ordered system, whereas a shattered glass is disordered.

Čaša je uređen sistem, dok je slomljena čaša neuređen.

The second law of thermodynamics states that closed systems tend towards disorder:

Drugi zakon termodinamike ističe da zatvoreni sistemi teže neuređenosti:

you won’t see a shattered glass return to its pristine state.

nećete videti polomljenu čašu kako se vraća u iskonsko stanje.

Boltzmann’s insight was applying statistical reasoning to this behavior.

Bolcmanov doprinos je bila primena statističkog rasuđivanja na ovo ponašanje.

He found that a system evolves to a more disordered state because it’s more likely.

Otkrio je da sistem prelazi u neuređenije stanje jer je ono verovatnije.

However, the opposite direction isn’t impossible,

Međutim, suprotan smer nije moguć,

just so unlikely that we’ll never witness things like scrambled eggs turning raw.

toliko je neverovatan da nikad nećemo videti kajganu kako se vraća u sveže jaje.

But if the universe exists over an infinitely long time,

Međutim, ako univerzum postoji tokom beskonačno dugog vremena,

extremely unlikely events will happen,

krajnje neverovatni događaji će da se dese,

including complex things forming out of random combinations of particles.

uključujući složene stvari koje nastaju od nasumičnih kombinacija čestica.

So what does that look like in a hypothetical infinitely old universe?

Dakle, kako to izgleda u hipotetički beskonačno starom univerzumu?

In this unremarkable stretch of near-nothingness,

U ovom neizglednom rasponu skoro pa ništavila,

about eight octillion atoms randomly come together to form a replica

oko osam oktiliona atoma nasumično se spaja kako bi stvorili repliku

of the Thinker made of pasta.

Mislioca napravljenog od testenine.

It instantly dissolves.

On se istog trena rastvara.

Over here, these particles suddenly form something like a brain.

Ovde te čestice iznenada formiraju nešto nalik mozgu.

It’s filled with false memories of a lifetime up to the present moment,

Ispunjen je lažnim sećanjima na život sve do sadašnjeg trenutka,

when it perceives a video saying these very words,

kada spazi snimak koji izgovara baš ove reči,

before decaying.

pre nego što se raspadne.

And finally, by random fluctuations, all the particles in the cosmos

I, naposletku, nasumičnim fluktuacijama, sve čestice u kosmosu

concentrate in a single point,

se koncentrišu u jednoj tački,

and an entire new universe spontaneously bursts into existence.

i potpuno nov univerzum spontano bukne u postojanje.

Of those last two, which is more likely?

Od dva poslednja primera, koji je verovatniji?

The brain, by far—

Mozak, i to nadaleko -

despite all its complexity, it’s a blip compared to an entire universe.

uprkos svoj njegovoj složenosti, tek je zrnce u čitavom univerzumu.

Every one universe produced by random fluctuations has equivalent odds

Za svaki pojedinačni univerzum stvoren nasumčnim fluktuacijama šanse su jednake

to heaps upon heaps of insta-brains.

hrpama i hrpama instant mozgova.

So by this reasoning, it seems extremely more likely

Ovakvim rezonovanjem, čini se daleko verovatnijim

that everything you believe to exist is actually a brief illusion,

da je sve u šta verujete da postoji zapravo prolazna iluzija,

soon to be extinguished.

koja će uskoro da iščezne.

Boltzmann didn’t get quite that far in his thinking;

Bolcman nije otišao baš toliko daleko u razmišljanju;

the brains themselves were introduced by later cosmologists building on his work.

mozgove su uveli kasniji kosmolozi koji su nastavili njegov rad.

But they, like just about everyone else,

Međutim, baš kao i skoro svi ostali,

were pretty sure that they themselves weren't just ephemeral brains.

bili su prilično sigurni da oni sami nisu tek efemerni mozgovi.

So the paradox was: how could they be correct and the universe be eternal?

Stoga je paradoks glasio: kako je moguće da su u pravu i da je univerzum večan?

The resolution is something most take for granted today:

Rešenje mnogi danas uzimaju zdravo za gotovo:

that our universe has not existed forever,

da naš univerzum nije postojao oduvek,

but rather time and space started with a Big Bang.

već da su vreme i prostor otpočeli Velikim praskom.

So that’s the paradox over and done with, right?

Dakle, to je to što se tiče paradoksa, zar ne?

Well, maybe not.

Pa, ne baš.

In the last century, scientists have found evidence supporting the theory

U ovom veku, naučnici su otkrili dokaze koji potkrepljuju teoriju

of the Big Bang everywhere we look.

Velikog praska gde god da se osvrnemo.

Yet while we know that the Big Bang happened,

Ipak, iako znamo da se Veliki prasak desio,

no one knows what, if anything, preceded and caused it.

niko ne zna da li mu je nešto, ako išta, prethodilo i uzrokovalo ga.

Why did the universe begin in such an extremely ordered, and unlikely, state?

Zašto je univerzum otpočeo u tako izuzetno sređenom, i neverovatnom, stanju?

Is our universe in an unending cycle of creation and collapse?

Da li je naš univerzum beskrajni ciklus stvaranja i urušavanja?

Or might we be in one of many universes expanding within a multiverse?

Ili smo možda jedan od mnogih univerzuma koji se šire unutar multiverzuma?

In this context, Boltzmann’s paradox has found renewed interest

U ovom kontekstu, došlo je do obnovljenog interesovanja za Bolcmanov paradoks

by contemporary cosmologists.

od strane savremenih kosmologa.

Some argue that leading models for where the universe came from

Neki tvrde da vodeći modeli u vezi s poreklom univerzuma

still imply that Boltzmann brains are more likely than human brains,

i dalje sugerišu da su Bolcmanovi mozgovi verovatniji od ljudskih mozgova,

suggesting something’s amiss.

nagoveštavajući da nešto nije kako treba.

Others counter that slight modifications of the cosmological models

Drugi protivreče tvrdeći da bi se blagim modifikacijama kosmoloških modela

would avoid the problem,

izbegao problem

or that Boltzmann’s brains can’t actually physically form.

ili da Bolcmanovi mozgovi zapravo ne mogu fizički da nastanu.

Some researchers even attempted to calculate the probability

Neki istraživači su čak pokušali da izračunaju verovatnoću

of a brain popping out of random quantum fluctuations

iskrsavanja mozga iz nasumičnih kvantnih fluktuacija

long enough to think a single thought.

taman toliko da smisli samo jednu misao.

They got this incredible number

Došli su do ovog neverovatnog broja

whose denominator is 10 to a number about a septillion times larger

čiji je imenilac 10 na broj koji je oko septilion puta veći

than the number of stars in the universe.

od broja zvezda u univerzumu.

The Boltzmann brain paradox, despite its absurdity,

Paradoks Bolcmanovog mozga, uprkos aspurdnosti,

is useful because it creates a bar that models have to rise to.

koristan je jer pruža lestvicu koju modeli moraju da dosegnu.

If, compared to numbers like this one,

Ukoliko je, u poređenju sa brojevima poput ovoga,

the current state of the universe is exceedingly unlikely,

trentuno stanje univerzuma izuzetno neverovatno,

something in the model is almost certainly wrong.

nešto u modelu je sasvim izvesno pogrešno.

Unless you’re the one who is wrong...

Ukoliko vi niste ti koji greše...