3 ways to end a virus

448,824 views ใƒป 2022-12-22

TED-Ed


์•„๋ž˜ ์˜๋ฌธ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ”ํด๋ฆญํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฒˆ์—ญ: Sojeong Lim ๊ฒ€ํ† : DK Kim
00:07
Itโ€™s spring 2021.
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2021๋…„ ๋ด„์—
00:08
The Alpha variant of the coronavirus has spread rapidly,
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์ฝ”๋กœ๋‚˜๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค ์•ŒํŒŒ ๋ณ€์ด๊ฐ€ ๊ธ‰๊ฒฉํžˆ ํ™•์‚ฐ๋˜๋”๋‹ˆ
00:11
becoming the dominant variant worldwide.
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์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„์ ์ธ ์šฐ์„ธ์ข…์ด ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:14
But another, more transmissible variant is about to appearโ€”
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์ „ํŒŒ๋ ฅ์ด ๋” ๊ฐ•ํ•œ ๋˜ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ณ€์ด๊ฐ€ ๋“ฑ์žฅํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:18
Delta.
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๋ฐ”๋กœ, ๋ธํƒ€ ๋ณ€์ด์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:19
What happens when two variants clash?
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๋‘ ๋ณ€์ด๊ฐ€ ์ถฉ๋Œํ•˜๋ฉด ๋ฌด์Šจ ์ผ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚ ๊นŒ์š”?
00:22
Letโ€™s do a thought experiment.
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์‚ฌ๊ณ  ์‹คํ—˜์„ ํ•œ๋ฒˆ ํ•ด๋ณด์ฃ .
00:24
Suppose that the variants reach a hypothetical isolated city
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์ด ๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€์ƒ์˜ ๊ณ ๋ฆฝ๋œ ๋„์‹œ์— ๊ฐ™์€ ๋‚  ์ถœํ˜„ํ–ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๊ฐ€์ •ํ•ด ๋ณด์ฃ .
00:28
of 1 million people who are completely susceptible to both viruses
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๋„์‹œ์—๋Š” ๋‘ ๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค์— ์ „ํ˜€ ๋ฉด์—ญ์ด ์—†๋Š” 100๋งŒ ๋ช…์ด ์‚ฝ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:31
on the same day.
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00:33
When a person here is infected with Alpha, they transmit it to,
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ ๋ˆ„๊ตฐ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ์•ŒํŒŒ ๋ณ€์ด์— ๊ฐ์—ผ๋˜๋ฉด
ํ‰๊ท ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐ€์ ‘ ์ ‘์ด‰์ž 5๋ช…์—๊ฒŒ ๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค๋ฅผ ์˜ฎ๊ธด ํ›„
00:37
on average, 5 close contacts,
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00:40
then begin to feel sick and immediately isolate themselves
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์•„ํ”„๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•ด์„œ ์ฆ‰์‹œ ๊ฒฉ๋ฆฌ์— ๋“ค์–ด๊ฐ€๊ณ  ๋ชจ์˜ ์‹คํ—˜์„ ํ•˜๋Š” ๋‚ด๋‚ด ๊ฒฉ๋ฆฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:43
for the rest of the simulation.
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00:45
The same thing happens with Delta,
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๋ธํƒ€ ๋ณ€์ด ์—ญ์‹œ ๋งˆ์ฐฌ๊ฐ€์ง€์ธ๋ฐ
00:47
except that an infected person transmits it to, on average, 7.5 close contacts.
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๋‹ค๋งŒ ํ‰๊ท ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐ€์ ‘ ์ ‘์ด‰์ž 7.5๋ช…์—๊ฒŒ ์˜ฎ๊น๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:53
What would you guess happens next?
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๊ทธ ๋‹ค์Œ์—๋Š” ๋ฌด์Šจ ์ผ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚ ๊นŒ์š”?
00:56
After six days, Alpha will have infected 15,625 people.
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6์ผ ํ›„, ์•ŒํŒŒ ๋ณ€์ด ๊ฐ์—ผ์ž ์ˆ˜๋Š” 15,625๋ช…์— ์ด๋ฅด๊ณ 
01:01
Delta will have infected more than 10 times as many.
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๋ธํƒ€ ๋ณ€์ด ๊ฐ์—ผ์ž ์ˆ˜๋Š” ๊ทธ๋ณด๋‹ค ์—ด ๋ฐฐ๋Š” ๋งŽ์„ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:05
Just 20 hours later, Delta will have infected the rest of the populationโ€”
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20์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ๋” ์ง€๋‚˜๋ฉด ๋ธํƒ€ ๋ณ€์ด๊ฐ€ ๋‚จ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์„ ๋ชจ์กฐ๋ฆฌ ๊ฐ์—ผ์‹œํ‚ฌ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:10
all before Alpha could infect 6% of it.
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์•ŒํŒŒ ๋ณ€์ด๊ฐ€ ๊ทธ์ค‘ 6%๋ฅผ ๊ฐ์—ผ์‹œํ‚ค๊ธฐ๋„ ์ „์— ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
01:13
With no one left to infect, Alpha dies out.
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๊ฐ์—ผ์‹œํ‚ฌ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ์•„๋ฌด๋„ ์—†์œผ๋‹ˆ ์•ŒํŒŒ ๋ณ€์ด๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋ผ์ง‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:17
This model is drastically simplified,
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์ด ๋ชจ๋ธ์€ ๋ฌด์ฒ™ ๋‹จ์ˆœํ™”ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ด์ง€๋งŒ
01:19
but it accurately reflects one thing that did happen in real life:
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ํ•œ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ํ˜„์‹ค์„ ์ •ํ™•ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฐ˜์˜ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:24
when both variants competed,
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๋‘ ๋ณ€์ด๊ฐ€ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿํ•  ๋•Œ
01:25
Delta drove Alpha towards extinction in a matter of weeks.
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๋ธํƒ€ ๋ณ€์ด๋Š” ๋ถˆ๊ณผ ๋ช‡ ์ฃผ ๋งŒ์— ์•ŒํŒŒ ๋ณ€์ด๋ฅผ ๋ฉธ์ข…์œผ๋กœ ๋ชฐ๊ณ  ๊ฐ”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:29
Viruses are wildly successful organisms.
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๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค๋Š” ๋ฌด์ฒ™ ์„ฑ๊ณต์ ์ธ ์œ ๊ธฐ์ฒด์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:32
There are about 100 million times as many virus particles on Earth
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์ง€๊ตฌ์—๋Š” ๊ด€์ธก ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ์šฐ์ฃผ์˜ ๋ณ„๋“ค๋ณด๋‹ค
01:37
as there are stars in the observable universe.
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1์–ต ๋ฐฐ๊ฐ€๋Ÿ‰ ๋งŽ์€ ๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค ์ž…์ž๋“ค์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:41
Even so, viruses can and do go extinct.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿผ์—๋„ ๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค๋Š” ๋ฉธ์ข…๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ณ  ๋ฉธ์ข…๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:45
There are three main ways that can happen.
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๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค๊ฐ€ ๋ฉธ์ข…๋˜๋Š” ์„ธ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์ฃผ์š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:48
First, a virus could run out of hosts.
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์ฒซ์งธ, ๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค์˜ ์ˆ™์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ๋ถ€์กฑํ•œ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:51
This might have happened in early 2020 to a flu lineage known as B/Yamagata.
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2020๋…„ ์ดˆ Bํ˜• ์•ผ๋งˆ๊ฐ€ํƒ€๋ผ๋Š” ๋…๊ฐ ๊ณ„ํ†ต์ด ๋ฐ”๋กœ ๊ทธ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์ฃ .
01:57
When much of the world shut down, social distanced, and wore masks
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์ฝ”๋กœ๋‚˜19 ํ™•์‚ฐ ๋ฐฉ์ง€๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•ด ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋“ค์ด
๋ด‰์‡„์™€ ์‚ฌํšŒ์  ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ ๋‘๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ์‹œํ–‰ํ•˜๊ณ  ๋งˆ์Šคํฌ๋ฅผ ์ฐฉ์šฉํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ
02:01
to slow the spread of COVID 19,
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02:03
that dramatically reduced the number of hosts available for B/Yamagata to infect.
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Bํ˜• ์•ผ๋งˆ๊ฐ€ํƒ€๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ์—ผ์‹œํ‚ฌ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์ˆ™์ฃผ์˜ ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ๊ธ‰๊ฐํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:08
Itโ€™ll take a few more flu seasons to know for sure
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Bํ˜• ์•ผ๋งˆ๊ฐ€ํƒ€๊ฐ€ ์ •๋ง ๋ฉธ์ข…ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ธ์ง€ ๋™๋ฌผ ๋ณด์œ  ์ˆ™์ฃผ์— ์ž ๋ณตํ•ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ธ์ง€๋Š”
02:11
if itโ€™s truly extinct or just hiding out in an animal reservoir.
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๋…๊ฐ ์œ ํ–‰๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋ช‡ ๋ฒˆ ๋” ๊ฒช์–ด๋ณด๋ฉด ์•Œ๊ฒ ์ฃ .
02:15
Many viruses, as part of their life cycle,
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๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์˜ ๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค๋Š” ์ˆ˜๋ช… ์ฃผ๊ธฐ์˜ ์ผ๋ถ€ ๊ตฌ๊ฐ„์—์„œ
02:17
cause diseases severe enough to kill their hosts.
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์ˆ™์ฃผ๋ฅผ ์ฃฝ์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ ์ •๋„๋กœ ์‹ฌ๊ฐํ•œ ์งˆ๋ณ‘์„ ์œ ๋ฐœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:21
This can be a problem because if a virus kills all its hosts,
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์ด๋Š” ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋  ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ ๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค๊ฐ€ ์ˆ™์ฃผ๋ฅผ ๋ชจ๋‘ ์ฃฝ์ธ๋‹ค๋ฉด
02:25
it couldโ€” in theoryโ€” run out of hosts to infect and go extinct.
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์ด๋ก ์ƒ ๊ฐ์—ผ์‹œํ‚ฌ ์ˆ™์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ๋ถ€์กฑํ•ด์„œ ๋ฉธ์ข…๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:29
This almost happened back in 1950s Australia.
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1950๋…„๋Œ€ ํ˜ธ์ฃผ์—์„œ ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์ผ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚  ๋ป”ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:34
At the time, Australia was overrun by the European rabbitโ€” an invasive speciesโ€”
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๋‹น์‹œ ํ˜ธ์ฃผ์—๋Š” ์นจ์ž…์ข…์ธ ์œ ๋Ÿฝ ํ† ๋ผ๊ฐ€ ๋“ค๋“์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:40
so, in an attempt to control the population,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๊ฐœ์ฒด ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์กฐ์ ˆํ•˜๊ณ ์ž
02:42
scientists released a virus called myxoma,
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๊ณผํ•™์ž๋“ค์€ ์ ์•ก์ข…์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค๋ฅผ ์‚ดํฌํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:45
which had been previously shown to be almost 100% lethal to European rabbits.
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๊ณผ๊ฑฐ์— ์œ ๋Ÿฝ ํ† ๋ผ์—๊ฒŒ๋Š” ์น˜์‚ฌ์œจ ๊ฑฐ์˜ 100%์˜€์ฃ .
02:51
During the initial outbreak,
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์ดˆ๊ธฐ์—๋Š” ๊ณ„ํš๋Œ€๋กœ ์œ ๋Ÿฝ ํ† ๋ผ ์ˆ˜์ฒœ๋งŒ ๋งˆ๋ฆฌ,
02:52
as planned, tens, perhaps hundreds, of millions of European rabbits died.
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์–ด์ฉŒ๋ฉด ์ˆ˜์–ต ๋งˆ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ฃฝ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:57
But as the virus spread, it evolved a series of mutations
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค๊ฐ€ ํ™•์‚ฐ๋จ์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ๋œ ์น˜๋ช…์ ์ธ ๋Œ์—ฐ๋ณ€์ด๋กœ ์ง„ํ™”ํ–ˆ๊ณ ,
03:01
that happened to make it less deadly,
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03:03
killing rabbits more slowly and killing fewer rabbits overall.
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์น˜์‚ฌ์œจ์ด ๋‚ฎ์•„์ง€๋ฉด์„œ ์ฃฝ๋Š” ํ† ๋ผ ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ์ค„์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:08
With more infected hosts hopping around,
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๋ณ€์ข… ๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค์— ๊ฐ์—ผ๋œ ์ˆ™์ฃผ๋“ค์ด ๋” ๋งŽ์ด ๋Œ์•„๋‹ค๋‹ˆ๋ฉด์„œ
03:10
this strain of the virus was more likely to spread than its deadlier cousin.
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์น˜๋ช…์ ์ธ ์ด์ „ ๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค์— ๋น„ํ•ด ๋ณ€์ข… ๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค๊ฐ€ ํผ์งˆ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ์ปค์กŒ์ฃ .
03:15
And of course, rabbits evolved too, to mount better immune responses.
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๋ฌผ๋ก , ํ† ๋ผ๋„ ์ง„ํ™”ํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ ๋” ๋‚˜์€ ๋ฉด์—ญ์„ ์–ป๊ฒŒ ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:20
Overall, instead of killing every single rabbit,
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๊ฒฐ๊ตญ, ํ† ๋ผ๋ฅผ ๋ชฐ์•„๋‚ด๊ธฐ๋Š”์ปค๋…•
03:23
the virus evolved, the rabbit population bounced back,
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๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค๋Š” ์ง„ํ™”ํ•˜๊ณ  ํ† ๋ผ ๊ฐœ์ฒด ์ˆ˜๋Š” ๋‹ค์‹œ ํšŒ๋ณต๋˜๋ฉด์„œ
03:26
and both survived.
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๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค์™€ ํ† ๋ผ ๋ชจ๋‘ ์‚ด์•„ ๋‚จ์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:28
The second way a virus could go extinct
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๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค๊ฐ€ ๋ฉธ์ข…๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋‘ ๋ฒˆ์งธ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์€
03:31
is if humans fight back with an effective vaccineโ€”
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์ธ๊ฐ„์ด ํšจ๊ณผ์ ์ธ ๋ฐฑ์‹ ์„ ํ™œ์šฉํ•ด ๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค์™€ ์‹ธ์›Œ ์ด๊ธฐ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:34
and win.
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03:35
Vaccination campaigns have driven two viruses essentially to extinction
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1800๋…„๋Œ€์— ๋ฐฑ์‹ ์ด ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ๋œ ์ดํ›„
๋ฐฑ์‹  ์ ‘์ข… ์บ ํŽ˜์ธ์„ ์‹ค์‹œํ•ด ๋ฟŒ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ๋ฝ‘์€ ๋‘ ๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:39
since vaccines were invented in the 1800s:
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03:42
smallpox and rinderpest, which kills cattle.
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๋ฐ”๋กœ, ์ฒœ์—ฐ๋‘์™€ ์†Œ์˜ ์ „์—ผ๋ณ‘์ธ ์šฐ์—ญ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:46
More on vaccination later.
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๋ฐฑ์‹ ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ๋‚˜์ค‘์— ๋” ๋ณด๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:48
The third way a virus can go extinct is if itโ€™s outcompeted
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๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค๊ฐ€ ๋ฉธ์ข…๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์„ธ ๋ฒˆ์งธ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์€
๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค๋‚˜ ๋ณ€์ข…๊ณผ ๊ฒจ๋ฃจ์–ด ๋ฐ€๋ ค๋‚˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:51
by another virus or strain,
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03:53
like we saw earlier with Delta and Alpha.
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์•ž์„œ ์‚ดํŽด๋ดค๋˜ ๋ธํƒ€์™€ ์•ŒํŒŒ ๋ณ€์ด์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
03:56
By the way, viruses don't always compete with each other.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ๋ฐ, ๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค๊ฐ€ ํ•ญ์ƒ ์„œ๋กœ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿํ•˜์ง€๋Š” ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:59
A viral species can carve out its own distinct nicheโ€”
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๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค ์ข…์€ ๊ฐ์ž ๊ณ ์œ ํ•œ ์œ„์น˜์— ์ž๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ์žก์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:02
for example, influenza infects your respiratory tract,
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์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค์–ด ๋…๊ฐ ๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค๋Š” ๊ธฐ๋„์— ๊ฐ์—ผ๋˜๊ณ 
04:05
and norovirus infects cells in your intestine,
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๋…ธ๋กœ๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค๋Š” ์žฅ ์„ธํฌ์— ๊ฐ์—ผ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:09
so both of these viruses can co-exist.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๋‘ ๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค๋Š” ๊ณต์กดํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์ฃ .
04:12
A virusโ€™ ecological niche can be tiny:
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๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค๋Š” ์•„์ฃผ ์ž‘์€ ๊ณณ์—๋„ ์นจ์ž…ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:15
hepatitis B and hepatitis C viruses can infect the same cellโ€”
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Bํ˜• ๊ฐ„์—ผ๊ณผ Cํ˜• ๊ฐ„์—ผ์€ ๊ฐ™์€ ์„ธํฌ์— ๊ฐ์—ผํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:20
hep B occupies the nucleus, and hep C occupies the cytoplasm.
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Bํ˜• ๊ฐ„์—ผ์€ ์„ธํฌํ•ต์—, Cํ˜• ๊ฐ„์—ผ์€ ์„ธํฌ์งˆ์— ์นจํˆฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:25
In fact, epidemiologists estimate that 2 to 10% of people with hep C
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์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ์ „์—ผ๋ณ‘ ํ•™์ž๋“ค์€ Cํ˜• ๊ฐ„์—ผ์ž์˜ 2~10%๊ฐ€
04:30
are also infected with hep B.
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Bํ˜• ๊ฐ„์—ผ์—๋„ ๊ฐ์—ผ๋˜์–ด ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ถ”์ •ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:33
So, will SARS-CoV-2โ€”
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๊ทธ๋Ÿผ, SARS-CoV-2, ์ฆ‰, ์ฝ”๋กœ๋‚˜19๋ฅผ ์œ ๋ฐœํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค ์ข…์€
04:35
the species of virus that causes COVID 19โ€”
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04:38
ever go extinct?
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๋ฉธ์ข…๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
04:40
Variants within the species will continue to arise.
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ํ•ด๋‹น ์ข…์˜ ๋ณ€์ด๋Š” ๊ณ„์†ํ•ด์„œ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:44
Those variants might drive prior ones to extinction, or not.
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๋ณ€์ด๋“ค์ด ์ด์ „ ๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค ์ข…์„ ๋ชฐ์•„๋‚ผ ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ๊ณ  ์•„๋‹ ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:47
Regardless of how the variants compete (or donโ€™t),
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๋ณ€์ด๋“ค์ด ์–ด๋–ค ๋ฐฉ์‹์œผ๋กœ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ์„ ํ•˜๋“ , ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๋“  ๊ฐ„์—
04:50
the species itselfโ€” to which all the variants belongโ€”
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๋ชจ๋“  ๋ณ€์ด๊ฐ€ ์†ํ•œ ๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค ์ข… ์ž์ฒด๋Š”
04:54
is pretty firmly established among humans.
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์ธ๊ฐ„ ์‚ฌ์ด์—์„œ ๊ฝค ํ™•๊ณ ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ž๋ฆฌ ์žก๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:57
If we managed to vaccinate enough people, could we drive SARS-CoV-2 to extinction?
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํžˆ ๋ฐฑ์‹ ์„ ์ ‘์ข…ํ•˜๋ฉด ์ฝ”๋กœ๋‚˜๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋ผ์งˆ๊นŒ์š”?
05:02
Our vaccination campaign against smallpox worked
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์ฒœ์—ฐ๋‘ ๋ฐฑ์‹  ์‚ฌ์—…์ด ์„ฑ๊ณตํ–ˆ๋˜ ์ด์œ ๋Š”
05:05
because the vaccine was highly protective against infection
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๊ฐ์—ผ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ฐฑ์‹ ์˜ ๋ฐฉ์–ด๋ ฅ์ด ๋†’๊ณ 
05:08
and smallpox had no close animal reservoir in which it could hide.
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์ฒœ์—ฐ๋‘๊ฐ€ ์ˆจ์„ ๋งŒํ•œ ๋™๋ฌผ ์ˆ™์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ€๊นŒ์ด์— ์—†์—ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:13
But SARS-CoV-2 can hide out in animals,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ฝ”๋กœ๋‚˜๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค๋Š” ์ˆจ์„ ๋งŒํ•œ ๋™๋ฌผ ์ˆ™์ฃผ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๊ณ 
05:16
and our current vaccinesโ€”
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ํ˜„์žฌ ๋ฐฑ์‹ ์ด ์ค‘๋ณ‘์ด๋‚˜ ์‚ฌ๋ง์„ ์˜ˆ๋ฐฉํ•˜๋Š” ํšจ๊ณผ๋Š” ๋›ฐ์–ด๋‚˜์ง€๋งŒ
05:17
while they provide excellent protection against severe illness and deathโ€”
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05:21
don't prevent all infections.
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๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฐ์—ผ์„ ๋ง‰์ง€๋Š” ๋ชปํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:24
So, conceivably there are two ways that SARS-CoV-2โ€”
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๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ, ์ฝ”๋กœ๋‚˜๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค ์ข… ์ „์ฒด๊ฐ€ ๋ฉธ์ข…๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์€
05:28
the entire speciesโ€” could go extinct:
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๋‘ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:31
a cataclysmic disaster could kill us all.
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์—„์ฒญ๋‚œ ๋Œ€์žฌ์•™์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ๋ชจ๋‘๊ฐ€ ์ฃฝ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜
05:34
Or...
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05:35
We could invent a universal vaccine that prevents all SARS-CoV-2 infectionsโ€”
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๋ชจ๋“  ์ฝ”๋กœ๋‚˜๋ฐ”์ด๋Ÿฌ์Šค ๊ฐ์—ผ์„ ๋ง‰๋Š” ๋งŒ๋Šฅ ๋ฐฑ์‹ ์„ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
05:40
those caused by all the variants that currently exist and those that donโ€™t.
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ํ˜„์กดํ•˜๋Š” ๋ณ€์ด๋กœ ์ธํ•œ ๊ฐ์—ผ๊ณผ
์•„์ง ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚˜์ง€ ์•Š์€ ๋ณ€์ข…์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•œ ๊ฐ์—ผ๋„ ๋ชจ๋‘ ๋ง‰์•„์ฃผ๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:45
Let's work toward that second option.
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๋‘ ๋ฒˆ์งธ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„ ์œ„ํ•ด ๋…ธ๋ ฅํ•ฉ์‹œ๋‹ค.

Original video on YouTube.com
์ด ์›น์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์ •๋ณด

์ด ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๋Š” ์˜์–ด ํ•™์Šต์— ์œ ์šฉํ•œ YouTube ๋™์˜์ƒ์„ ์†Œ๊ฐœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ์„ ์ƒ๋‹˜๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์น˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์—…์„ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ๋™์˜์ƒ ํŽ˜์ด์ง€์— ํ‘œ์‹œ๋˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ” ํด๋ฆญํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ณณ์—์„œ ๋™์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋น„๋””์˜ค ์žฌ์ƒ์— ๋งž์ถฐ ์ž๋ง‰์ด ์Šคํฌ๋กค๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜๊ฒฌ์ด๋‚˜ ์š”์ฒญ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ด ๋ฌธ์˜ ์–‘์‹์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.

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