Should we create a solar shade to cool the earth? | Danny Hillis

71,275 views ・ 2018-04-26

TED


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譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: SF Huang
00:12
[A provocation from Danny Hillis:]
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【丹尼 • 希利斯的挑釁:】
00:13
[It's time to start talking about engineering our climate]
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【是開始談處理氣候議題的時候了】
00:16
What if there was a way to build a thermostat
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如果有辦法打造一個自動調溫器,
00:20
that allowed you to turn down the temperature of the earth
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讓你可以隨時隨地
調降地球的溫度?
00:23
anytime you wanted?
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00:25
Now, you would think if somebody had a plausible idea about how to do that,
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若有人有可行的想法,
00:30
everybody would be very excited about it,
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每個人應該都會感到非常興奮,
00:32
and there would be lots of research on how to do it.
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而且會有很多相關的研究報告才對。
00:35
But in fact, a lot of people do understand how to do that.
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事實上,許多人確實知道要如何做。
00:40
But there's not much support for research in this area.
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但是,這個領域並沒有得到很多 相關研究的支持。
00:45
And I think part of it
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我認為部分原因,
00:47
is because there are some real misunderstandings about it.
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是大家對它存在著一些誤解。
00:51
So I'm not going to try to convince you today that this is a good idea.
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今天,我不會試著說服 各位相信這是個好點子。
00:55
But I am going to try to get your curiosity going about it
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但我會試著讓各位對它感到好奇,
01:00
and clear up some of the misunderstandings.
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同時也澄清一些誤解。
01:04
So, the basic idea of solar geoengineering
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太陽能地球工程的基本想法是,
01:08
is that we can cool things down
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只要把稍微多一點的太陽光
01:11
just by reflecting a little bit more sunlight
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反射回太空,
01:13
back into space.
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我們就能將地球降溫。
01:15
And ideas about how to do this have been around literally for decades.
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數十年來人們探究要如何實踐。
01:22
Clouds are a great way to do that, these low-lying clouds.
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雲會是很棒的方法,這些低空的雲。
01:26
Everybody knows it's cooler under a cloud.
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大家都知道,在雲底下比較涼爽。
01:29
I like this cloud because it has exactly the same water content
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我喜歡這種雲,因為它的水含量
01:33
as the transparent air around it.
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和周圍的透明空氣一樣。
01:36
And it just shows that even a little bit of a change in the flow of the air
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這意味著即使空氣的流動 只有一丁點的改變,
01:40
can cause a cloud to form.
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就能形成雲。
01:42
We make artificial clouds all the time.
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我們一直都在製造人造雲。
01:45
These are contrails, which are artificial water clouds
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這些是凝結尾,也就是人造水雲,
01:49
that are made by the passing of a jet engine.
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是噴射機引擎在飛行時所產生的。
01:52
And so, we're already changing the clouds on earth.
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我們已經在改變地球上的雲了。
01:57
By accident.
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非特意的。
01:58
Or, if you like to believe it, by supersecret government conspiracy.
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或是,也有人相信 是政府的超神秘陰謀。
02:03
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
02:05
But we are already doing this quite a lot.
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但,我們已經常常在製造雲了。
02:08
This is a NASA picture of shipping lanes.
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這是太空總署拍的海上航道照片。
02:12
Passing ships actually cause clouds to form,
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航行的船隻會導致雲的形成,
02:15
and this is a big enough effect
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這影響夠大,
02:17
that it actually helps reduce global warming already by about a degree.
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實際上已經有助於 減輕全球暖化大約一度。
02:23
So we already are doing solar engineering.
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所以我們已經在做太陽能工程了。
02:27
There's lots of ideas about how to do this.
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要如何去實踐它的點子有很多。
02:29
People have looked at everything,
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人們的想法應有盡有,
02:31
from building giant parasols out into space
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從在外太空建造巨型陽傘,
02:34
to fizzing bubble waters in the ocean.
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到使海水產生氣泡都有。
02:38
And some of these are actually very plausible ideas.
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當中有一些想法似乎是蠻合理的。
02:42
One that was published recently by David Keith at Harvard
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近期,哈佛的大衛 • 凱斯 在刊物中提出了一個想法,
02:47
is to take chalk and put dust up into the stratosphere,
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把白堊(粉筆)的粉末 投放到同溫層當中,
02:50
where it reflects off sunlight.
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它會把太陽光反射回去。
02:53
And that's a really neat idea,
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那是很棒的想法,
02:54
because chalk is one of the most common minerals on earth,
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因為白堊是地球上 最常見的礦物之一,
02:57
and it's very safe -- it's so safe, we put it into baby food.
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且它非常安全──安全到 我們會把它放到嬰兒食物中。
03:02
And basically, if you throw chalk up into the stratosphere,
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基本上,若你把白堊放到同溫層中,
03:06
it comes down in a couple of years all by itself, dissolved in rainwater.
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幾年後它自己會落下, 在雨水中分解。
03:12
Now, before you start worrying about all this chalk in your rainwater,
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在各位開始擔心雨水中的白堊之前,
03:16
let me explain to you how little of it it actually takes.
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先讓我解釋需要使用的量有多麼少。
03:21
And that turns out to be very easy to calculate.
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結果發現,這用量很容易計算。
03:25
This is a back-of-the-envelope calculation I made.
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這是我在信封背後做的計算。
03:27
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
03:29
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
03:31
I assure you, people have done much more careful calculations,
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我向各位保證, 有人做過更精密的計算,
03:35
and it comes out with the same answer,
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結果答案是相同的,
03:37
which is that you have to put chalk up at the rate of about 10 teragrams a year
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答案是,你需要每年放上 大約一千萬公噸的白堊,
03:43
to undo the effects of the CO2 that we've already done --
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來弭平二氧化碳已經造成的效應──
03:47
just in terms of temperature, not all the effects, but the temperature.
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只有溫度上的效應, 不是所有的效應,僅限於溫度。
03:51
So what does that look like?
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所以,那看起來是什麼樣子?
03:53
I can't visualize 10 teragrams per year.
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我無法具像化 每年一千萬公噸的樣子。
03:57
So I asked the Cambridge Fire Department and Taylor Milsal
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所以,我請劍橋消防局 和泰勒 • 米爾索
04:03
to lend me a hand.
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來幫我一個忙。
04:06
This is a hose pumping water at 10 teragrams a year.
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這水管灌注出的水量, 就是一年一千萬公噸。
04:12
And that is how much
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只要把這麼多的量
04:15
you would have to pump into the stratosphere
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灌注到同溫層,
04:18
to cool the earth back down to pre-industrial levels.
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就能讓地球降溫到 工業時代以前的溫度。
04:23
And it's amazingly little; it's like one hose for the entire earth.
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這份量少得驚人; 整個地球只要這一根水管。
04:29
Now of course, you wouldn't really use a hose,
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當然,我們不會真的用水管,
04:31
you'd fly it up in airplanes or something like that.
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可能會用飛機載上去之類的方式。
04:34
But it's so little, it would be like putting a handful of chalk
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但,需要的量相當少, 就像是把一把白堊
04:39
into every Olympic swimming pool full of rain.
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丟到裝滿雨水的每個奧運游泳池中。
04:42
It's almost nothing.
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幾乎沒感覺。
04:45
So why don't people like this idea?
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所以,為什麼大家不喜歡這個想法?
04:49
Why isn't it taken more seriously?
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它為何沒被更認真看待?
04:51
And there are some very good reasons for that.
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這背後有些很好的理由。
04:55
A lot of people really don't think we should be talking about this at all.
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很多人完全不認為 我們應該要談這些。
05:00
And, in fact, I have some very good friends in the audience
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事實上,在觀眾當中 有一些我非常要好的朋友,
05:04
who I respect a lot,
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我很尊敬他們,
05:07
who really don't think I should be talking about this.
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他們完全不認為我應該來談這個。
05:11
And the reason is that they're concerned
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因為他們關心的是,
05:13
that if people imagine there's some easy way out,
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如果大家知道會有簡單的解決方案,
05:17
that we won't give up our addiction to fossil fuels.
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那麼我們就不會放棄 對化石燃料的依賴了。
05:21
And I do worry about that.
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我確實也會擔心這點。
05:23
I think it's actually a serious problem.
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我認為這其實是個嚴重的問題。
05:26
But there's also, I think, a deeper problem,
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但,我認為還有一個更深入的問題,
05:32
which is: nobody likes the idea of messing with the entire earth --
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那就是:沒有人會喜歡 去亂搞整個地球──
05:38
I certainly don't.
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我肯定不喜歡。
05:39
I love this planet, I really do.
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我愛這個星球,真的。
05:42
And I don't want to mess with it.
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我不想亂搞它。
05:44
But we're already changing our atmosphere,
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但我們已經在改變我們的大氣了,
05:48
we're already messing with it.
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我們已經在亂搞它了。
05:51
And so I think it makes sense for us to look for ways
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所以我認為這是合理的, 我們應該要找些方式
05:57
to mitigate that impact.
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來把衝擊給減少。
05:59
And we need to do research to do that.
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我們需要去做相關的研究。
06:01
We need to understand the science behind that.
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我們需要了解它背後的科學。
06:04
I've noticed that there's a theme that's kind of developed at TED,
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我注意到,在 TED 有個主題正在發展,
06:10
which is kind of, "fear versus hope,"
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類似是「恐懼與希望」,
06:14
or "creativity versus caution."
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或「創意與謹慎」。
06:19
And of course, we need both of those.
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當然,我們兩者都需要。
06:21
So there aren't any silver bullets.
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沒有任何簡單快速的解法。
06:24
This is certainly not a silver bullet.
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這肯定不是簡單快速的解決方法。
06:28
But we need science to tell us what our options are;
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但我們需要科學 來告訴我們有哪些選項,
06:32
that informs both our creativity and our caution.
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那樣就能同時為我們的 創意和謹慎提供資訊。
06:37
So I am an optimist about our future selves,
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所以對於我們的未來, 我抱持著樂觀的態度,
06:42
but I'm not an optimist because I think our problems are small.
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但我樂觀的原因並不是 因為我們的問題很小。
06:47
I'm an optimist because I think our capacity to deal with our problems
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我樂觀的原因是, 我認為我們處理問題的能力
06:53
is much greater than we imagine.
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遠超過我們的想像。
06:55
Thank you very much.
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非常謝謝。
06:57
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
06:58
This talk sparked a lot of controversy at TED2017,
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這場演說在 TED 2017 引發了許多爭論,
07:00
and we encourage you to look at discussions online
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我們鼓勵大家上網看看討論,
07:02
to see other points of view.
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了解不同的觀點。
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