Should we create a solar shade to cool the earth? | Danny Hillis

71,543 views ใƒป 2018-04-26

TED


์•„๋ž˜ ์˜๋ฌธ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ”ํด๋ฆญํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฒˆ์—ญ: Bill Kil ๊ฒ€ํ† : JY Kang
00:12
[A provocation from Danny Hillis:]
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[๋Œ€๋‹ˆ ํž๋ฆฌ์Šค์˜ ๋„๋ฐœ์ ์ธ ์ œ์•ˆ:]
00:13
[It's time to start talking about engineering our climate]
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[์ง€๊ตฌ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ฅผ ์ธ์œ„์ ์œผ๋กœ ์กฐ์ž‘ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐํ•  ๋•Œ๊ฐ€ ๋๋‹ค.]
00:16
What if there was a way to build a thermostat
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๋งŒ์•ฝ ์ง€๊ตฌ์— ์˜จ๋„์กฐ์ ˆ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ์„ค์น˜ํ•ด์„œ
00:20
that allowed you to turn down the temperature of the earth
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์›ํ•  ๋•Œ๋Š” ์–ธ์ œ๋ผ๋„ ์ง€๊ตฌ ์˜จ๋„๋ฅผ ์กฐ์ ˆํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด ์–ด๋–จ๊นŒ์š”?
00:23
anytime you wanted?
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00:25
Now, you would think if somebody had a plausible idea about how to do that,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿผ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ํ•  ๊ทธ๋Ÿด๋“ฏํ•œ ์•„์ด๋””์–ด๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง„ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์„ ๋– ์˜ฌ๋ฆฌ๊ณ 
00:30
everybody would be very excited about it,
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๋ชจ๋‘๊ฐ€ ๊ทธ ์†Œ์‹์— ๊ธฐ๋ปํ•˜๊ณ 
00:32
and there would be lots of research on how to do it.
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๊ทธ๊ฑธ ์‹คํ˜„ํ•  ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ๋งŽ์€ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๊ฐ€ ์ด๋ฃจ์–ด์งˆ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:35
But in fact, a lot of people do understand how to do that.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์‚ฌ์‹ค ๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ๊ทธ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„ ์•Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:40
But there's not much support for research in this area.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ด ๋ถ„์•ผ์˜ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” ๋งŽ์€ ์ง€์ง€๋ฅผ ๋ฐ›์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์ฃ .
00:45
And I think part of it
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๊ทธ ์ด์œ  ์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜๋Š”
00:47
is because there are some real misunderstandings about it.
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์—ฐ๊ตฌ์— ๊ด€ํ•ด ํฐ ์˜คํ•ด๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:51
So I'm not going to try to convince you today that this is a good idea.
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์˜ค๋Š˜ ์ €๋Š” ์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ์ข‹์€ ๋ฐฉ์•ˆ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์„ ๋‚ฉ๋“์‹œํ‚ฌ ์ƒ๊ฐ์€ ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:55
But I am going to try to get your curiosity going about it
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ด ์ฃผ์ œ์— ๊ด€ํ•ด ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์˜ ๊ถ๊ธˆ์ฆ์„ ์ผ์œผ์ผœ๋ณด๊ณ 
01:00
and clear up some of the misunderstandings.
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๋ช‡ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์˜คํ•ด๋“ค์„ ํ’€๊ณ  ์‹ถ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:04
So, the basic idea of solar geoengineering
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ํƒœ์–‘ ๊ธฐํ›„ ์กฐ์ž‘์˜ ๊ธฐ๋ณธ ์•„์ด๋””์–ด๋Š”
01:08
is that we can cool things down
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์–ด๋–ค ๊ฒƒ์˜ ์˜จ๋„๋ฅผ ๋‚ฎ์ถ”๋ ค๋ฉด
01:11
just by reflecting a little bit more sunlight
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๋‹จ์ง€ ํ–‡๋น›์„ ์กฐ๊ธˆ ๋” ๋ฐ˜์‚ฌ์‹œ์ผœ ์šฐ์ฃผ๋กœ ๋˜๋Œ๋ ค ๋ณด๋‚ด์ž๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:13
back into space.
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01:15
And ideas about how to do this have been around literally for decades.
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์ด๊ฒƒ์„ ์‹คํ˜„ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ๋ฐฉ์•ˆ์€ ๋ง ๊ทธ๋Œ€๋กœ ์ˆ˜์‹ญ ๋…„๊ฐ„ ๋…ผ์˜๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:22
Clouds are a great way to do that, these low-lying clouds.
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๋‚ฎ์€ ๊ณ ๋„์˜ ๊ตฌ๋ฆ„์„ ์ด์šฉํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ํ•˜๋‚˜์˜ ํ›Œ๋ฅญํ•œ ๋ฐฉ์•ˆ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:26
Everybody knows it's cooler under a cloud.
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๊ตฌ๋ฆ„์ด ๊ฐ€๋ฆฌ๋ฉด ์‹œ์›ํ•˜๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฑด ๋ˆ„๊ตฌ๋‚˜ ์•Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ์ฃ .
01:29
I like this cloud because it has exactly the same water content
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ๊ตฌ๋ฆ„์„ ์ข‹์•„ํ•˜๋Š” ์ด์œ ๋Š”
์ˆ˜๋ถ„ ํ•จ๋Ÿ‰์ด ์ฃผ๋ณ€์˜ ํˆฌ๋ช…ํ•œ ๊ณต๊ธฐ์™€ ์ •ํ™•ํžˆ ๋™์ผํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:33
as the transparent air around it.
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01:36
And it just shows that even a little bit of a change in the flow of the air
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๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ๊ณต๊ธฐ์˜ ํ๋ฆ„์„ ์กฐ๊ธˆ๋งŒ ๋ฐ”๊พธ์–ด๋„
01:40
can cause a cloud to form.
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๊ตฌ๋ฆ„์„ ๋งŒ๋“ค ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:42
We make artificial clouds all the time.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ธ๊ณต๊ตฌ๋ฆ„์„ ํ•ญ์ƒ ๋งŒ๋“ค๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:45
These are contrails, which are artificial water clouds
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ๋น„ํ–‰์šด์ธ๋ฐ์š”.
์ œํŠธ ์—”์ง„์ด ํ†ต๊ณผํ•  ๋•Œ ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด์ง€๋Š” ์ธ๊ณต์ ์ธ ์ˆ˜๋ถ„ ๊ตฌ๋ฆ„์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:49
that are made by the passing of a jet engine.
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01:52
And so, we're already changing the clouds on earth.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ ์ด๋ฏธ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ง€๊ตฌ ์ƒ์˜ ๊ตฌ๋ฆ„๋“ค์„ ์กฐ์ž‘ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:57
By accident.
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์šฐ์—ฐํžˆ ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
01:58
Or, if you like to believe it, by supersecret government conspiracy.
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์•„๋‹ˆ๋ฉด ์–ด๋–ค ๋ถ„๋“ค์ด ๋ฏฟ๊ธฐ๋กœ๋Š” ์ •๋ถ€์˜ ๊ทน๋น„ ์Œ๋ชจ์— ์˜ํ•ด์„œ์š”.
02:03
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
02:05
But we are already doing this quite a lot.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ด๋ฏธ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ตฌ๋ฆ„์„ ๊ฝค ๋งŽ์ด ๋งŒ๋“ค๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:08
This is a NASA picture of shipping lanes.
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ NASA์—์„œ ์ฐ์€ ์„ ๋ฐ• ํ•ญ๋กœ ์‚ฌ์ง„์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:12
Passing ships actually cause clouds to form,
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๋ฐฐ๊ฐ€ ์ง€๋‚˜๊ฐ€๊ธฐ๋งŒ ํ•ด๋„ ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ตฌ๋ฆ„์ด ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด์ง€๊ณ 
02:15
and this is a big enough effect
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์ด๊ฒƒ์— ์˜ํ•œ ํšจ๊ณผ๋„ ์ œ๋ฒ• ์ปค์„œ
02:17
that it actually helps reduce global warming already by about a degree.
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์ด๋ฏธ ์ง€๊ตฌ ์˜จ๋‚œํ™”๋ฅผ 1๋„ ๊ฐ€๋Ÿ‰ ๋‚ฎ์ถ”๋Š” ๋ฐ ์ผ์กฐํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:23
So we already are doing solar engineering.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ด๋ฏธ ํƒœ์–‘ ๊ธฐํ›„ ์กฐ์ž‘์„ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
02:27
There's lots of ideas about how to do this.
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๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ์•„์ด๋””์–ด๋“ค์€ ๋งŽ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:29
People have looked at everything,
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐฉ์•ˆ๋“ค์„ ์—ฐ๊ตฌํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:31
from building giant parasols out into space
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์šฐ์ฃผ์— ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ ํŒŒ๋ผ์†”๋“ค์„ ์„ค์น˜ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ
02:34
to fizzing bubble waters in the ocean.
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๋ฐ”๋‹ค์— ๊ฑฐํ’ˆ์„ ์ผ์œผํ‚ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๊นŒ์ง€์š”.
02:38
And some of these are actually very plausible ideas.
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๊ทธ ์ค‘์— ๋ช‡๋ช‡ ์•„๋””์–ด๋“ค์€ ์‚ฌ์‹ค ์•„์ฃผ ๊ทธ๋Ÿด๋“ฏํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:42
One that was published recently by David Keith at Harvard
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์ตœ๊ทผ ํ•˜๋ฒ„๋“œ ๋Œ€ํ•™์˜ ๋ฐ์ด๋น— ํ‚ค์Šค๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœํ‘œํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์€
02:47
is to take chalk and put dust up into the stratosphere,
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๋ถ„ํ•„์„ ๋งŒ๋“œ๋Š” ์žฌ๋ฃŒ์ธ ๋ฐฑ์•…์„ ๊ฐ€๋ฃจ ํ˜•ํƒœ๋กœ ์„ฑ์ธต๊ถŒ์— ๋ฟŒ๋ ค์„œ
02:50
where it reflects off sunlight.
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ํ–‡๋น›์„ ๋ฐ˜์‚ฌ์‹œํ‚ค๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:53
And that's a really neat idea,
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์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ํ›Œ๋ฅญํ•œ ์•„์ด๋””์–ด์ธ ์ด์œ ๋Š”
02:54
because chalk is one of the most common minerals on earth,
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๋ฐฑ์•…์€ ์ง€๊ตฌ์—์„œ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํ”ํ•œ ๋ฌด๊ธฐ์งˆ ์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜์ด๊ณ 
02:57
and it's very safe -- it's so safe, we put it into baby food.
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๋งค์šฐ ์•ˆ์ „ํ•ด์„œ, ์œ ์•„์šฉ ์Œ์‹์—๋„ ํฌํ•จ๋  ์ •๋„์ด๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:02
And basically, if you throw chalk up into the stratosphere,
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๊ธฐ๋ณธ์ ์œผ๋กœ, ๋ฐฑ์•…์„ ์„ฑ์ธต๊ถŒ์— ๋ฟŒ๋ฆฌ๋ฉด
03:06
it comes down in a couple of years all by itself, dissolved in rainwater.
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2๋…„ ์•ˆ์— ์ €์ ˆ๋กœ ๋น—๋ฌผ์— ๋…น์•„์„œ ์”ป๊ฒจ์ ธ ๋‚ด๋ฆฝ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:12
Now, before you start worrying about all this chalk in your rainwater,
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์ด์ฏค์—์„œ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ๋น—๋ฌผ์— ๋“ค์–ด๊ฐ„ ๋ฐฑ์•…์ด ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ์œ„ํ—˜ํ•œ์ง€ ๊ฑฑ์ •ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์ „์—
03:16
let me explain to you how little of it it actually takes.
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ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ์–‘์ด ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ์ ์€์ง€ ์„ค๋ช…ํ•ด๋“œ๋ฆฌ๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:21
And that turns out to be very easy to calculate.
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์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ํ•ด๋ณด๋‹ˆ ๊ณ„์‚ฐํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋งค์šฐ ์‰ฌ์› ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:25
This is a back-of-the-envelope calculation I made.
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๋ด‰ํˆฌ ๋’ท๋ฉด์— ๋„์ ๊ฑฐ๋ ค ๊ณ„์‚ฐํ•ด๋ดค์ฃ .
03:27
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
03:29
(Applause)
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(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
03:31
I assure you, people have done much more careful calculations,
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์ž์‹ ์žˆ๊ฒŒ ๋ง์”€๋“œ๋ฆฌ์ž๋ฉด, ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ํ›จ์”ฌ ์ •๊ตํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๊ณ„์‚ฐํ•ด๋„
03:35
and it comes out with the same answer,
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๊ฐ™์€ ๋‹ต์ด ๋‚˜์™”๋Š”๋ฐ์š”.
03:37
which is that you have to put chalk up at the rate of about 10 teragrams a year
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1๋…„์— 1000๋งŒ ํ†ค์˜ ๋ฐฑ์•…์„ ํˆฌ์ž…ํ•˜๋ฉด
03:43
to undo the effects of the CO2 that we've already done --
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CO2๊ฐ€ ์ง€๊ธˆ๊นŒ์ง€ ๋ฏธ์นœ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋˜๋Œ๋ฆด ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:47
just in terms of temperature, not all the effects, but the temperature.
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์ง€๊ตฌ ์˜จ๋„์—๋งŒ ํ•œ์ •ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค, ๋ชจ๋“  ์˜ํ–ฅ์ด ์•„๋‹Œ ์˜จ๋„๋งŒ์š”.
03:51
So what does that look like?
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์ด ์ˆ˜์น˜๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ์ด ์˜ค์‹œ๋‚˜์š”?
03:53
I can't visualize 10 teragrams per year.
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1๋…„์— 1000๋งŒ ํ†ค์ด๋ผ๋Š” ์–‘์ด ์ €๋Š” ๊ฐ€๋Š ์ด ์•ˆ๋˜๋Š”๋ฐ์š”.
03:57
So I asked the Cambridge Fire Department and Taylor Milsal
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์บ ๋ธŒ๋ฆฟ์ง€ ์†Œ๋ฐฉ์„œ์™€ ํ…Œ์ผ๋Ÿฌ ๋ฐ€์„ค์—๊ฒŒ
04:03
to lend me a hand.
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๋„์›€์„ ์š”์ฒญํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:06
This is a hose pumping water at 10 teragrams a year.
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์ด ํ˜ธ์Šค ํ•˜๋‚˜๋กœ 1๋…„์— 1000๋งŒ ํ†ค์˜ ๋ฌผ์„ ํผ์˜ฌ๋ฆด ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:12
And that is how much
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด ์ •๋„์˜ ์–‘์„
04:15
you would have to pump into the stratosphere
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์„ฑ์ธต๊ถŒ์— ํผ์˜ฌ๋ ค ๋†“์œผ๋ฉด
04:18
to cool the earth back down to pre-industrial levels.
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์ง€๊ตฌ ์˜จ๋„๋ฅผ ์‚ฐ์—…ํ™” ์ด์ „์˜ ์ˆ˜์ค€์œผ๋กœ ๋‚ฎ์ถœ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:23
And it's amazingly little; it's like one hose for the entire earth.
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ๋งค์šฐ ์ ์€ ์–‘์ธ๋ฐ์š”. ์ง€๊ตฌ ์ „์ฒด์— ํ˜ธ์Šค ํ•˜๋‚˜๋งŒ ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉด ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:29
Now of course, you wouldn't really use a hose,
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๋ฌผ๋ก  ์ •๋ง๋กœ ํ˜ธ์Šค๋ฅผ ์ด์šฉํ•˜์ง„ ์•Š๊ณ 
04:31
you'd fly it up in airplanes or something like that.
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๋น„ํ–‰๊ธฐ๋‚˜ ๊ทธ์™€ ๋น„์Šทํ•œ ์ˆ˜๋‹จ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚ ๋ ค๋ณด๋‚ด์•ผ ํ•˜๊ฒ ์ฃ .
04:34
But it's so little, it would be like putting a handful of chalk
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋„ˆ๋ฌด๋‚˜ ์ž‘์€ ์–‘์ด์–ด์„œ ๋งˆ์น˜ ํ•œ ์คŒ์˜ ๋ฐฑ์•…์„
04:39
into every Olympic swimming pool full of rain.
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๋น—๋ฌผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๋“์ฐฌ ์˜ฌ๋ฆผํ”ฝ ์ˆ˜์˜์žฅ์— ๋ฟŒ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:42
It's almost nothing.
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๊ฑฐ์˜ ์—†๋Š” ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ๋งˆ์ฐฌ๊ฐ€์ง€์ฃ .
04:45
So why don't people like this idea?
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฉด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์™œ ์ด ์•„์ด๋””์–ด๋ฅผ ์‹ซ์–ดํ• ๊นŒ์š”?
04:49
Why isn't it taken more seriously?
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์™œ ๋” ์ง„์ง€ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์„๊นŒ์š”?
04:51
And there are some very good reasons for that.
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๊ฑฐ๊ธฐ์—” ๋งค์šฐ ํƒ€๋‹นํ•œ ์ด์œ ๋“ค์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:55
A lot of people really don't think we should be talking about this at all.
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๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์ด๊ฒƒ์— ๊ด€ํ•ด ๋ง๋„ ๊บผ๋‚ด๋ฉด ์•ˆ ๋œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:00
And, in fact, I have some very good friends in the audience
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์‚ฌ์‹ค ์ด๊ณณ ์ฒญ์ค‘์„์— ์ œ ์ ˆ์นœํ•œ ์นœ๊ตฌ ๋ช‡ ๋ช…์ด ์™€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:04
who I respect a lot,
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ •๋ง ์กด๊ฒฝํ•˜๋Š” ์ด๋“ค์ด์ฃ .
05:07
who really don't think I should be talking about this.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๊ทธ๋“ค๋„ ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ด ์ฃผ์ œ๋กœ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐํ•ด์„  ์•ˆ ๋œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:11
And the reason is that they're concerned
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๊ทธ ์ด์œ ๋Š”, ๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ์—ผ๋ คํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€
05:13
that if people imagine there's some easy way out,
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์‰ฌ์šด ํ•ด๊ฒฐ์ฑ…์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์•Œ๊ฒŒ ๋˜๋ฉด
05:17
that we won't give up our addiction to fossil fuels.
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ํ™”์„ ์—ฐ๋ฃŒ์˜ ๋‚จ์šฉ์„ ํฌ๊ธฐํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์„ ๊ฑฐ๋ผ๋Š” ์ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:21
And I do worry about that.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ €๋„ ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์ด ๊ฑฑ์ •๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:23
I think it's actually a serious problem.
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์ €๋„ ์‚ฌ์‹ค ์‹ฌ๊ฐํ•œ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด์š”.
05:26
But there's also, I think, a deeper problem,
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๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€๋งŒ ์ œ ์ƒ๊ฐ์— ๋” ๊นŠ์€ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š”
05:32
which is: nobody likes the idea of messing with the entire earth --
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๋ˆ„๊ตฌ๋ผ๋„ ์ง€๊ตฌ ์ „์ฒด์— ์†๋Œ€๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์‹ซ์–ดํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:38
I certainly don't.
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์ €๋„ ๋ถ„๋ช… ๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ตฌ์š”.
05:39
I love this planet, I really do.
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์ €๋Š” ์ด ํ–‰์„ฑ์„ ์‚ฌ๋ž‘ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ •๋ง๋กœ์š”.
05:42
And I don't want to mess with it.
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์ €๋„ ์ง€๊ตฌ์— ์†์„ ๋Œ€๊ณ  ์‹ถ์ง€ ์•Š์•„์š”.
05:44
But we're already changing our atmosphere,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ด๋ฏธ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๋Œ€๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”๊พธ๋Š” ์ค‘์ด๊ณ 
05:48
we're already messing with it.
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์ด๋ฏธ ์†์„ ๋Œ€๋ฒ„๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:51
And so I think it makes sense for us to look for ways
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๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ธฐ์— ์ œ ์ƒ๊ฐ์—” ๊ทธ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ˆ„๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋œจ๋ฆฌ๋Š”
05:57
to mitigate that impact.
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๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„ ์ฐพ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ํ•ฉ๋‹นํ•ด๋ณด์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:59
And we need to do research to do that.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์—ฐ๊ตฌํ•ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:01
We need to understand the science behind that.
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์— ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ๊ณผํ•™์  ์›๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ์ดํ•ดํ•ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:04
I've noticed that there's a theme that's kind of developed at TED,
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์ €๋Š” TED์—์„œ ์ฃผ๋กœ ํ™”์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋˜๋Š” ์ฃผ์ œ๋“ค์„ ๋ณด์•˜๋Š”๋ฐ์š”
06:10
which is kind of, "fear versus hope,"
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ "๊ณตํฌ๋ƒ, ํฌ๋ง์ด๋ƒ" ๋˜๋Š”
06:14
or "creativity versus caution."
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"์ฐฝ์˜์„ฑ์ด๋ƒ, ์กฐ์‹ฌ์Šค๋Ÿฌ์›€์ด๋ƒ"์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:19
And of course, we need both of those.
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๋ฌผ๋ก , ์–‘์ชฝ ๋ชจ๋‘ ์ค‘์š”ํ•˜์ฃ .
06:21
So there aren't any silver bullets.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ ์ด ๋ฌธ์ œ์— ๋ฌ˜์ฑ…์€ ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:24
This is certainly not a silver bullet.
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๋ง์”€๋“œ๋ฆฐ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•๋„ ํ™•์‹คํžˆ ๋ฌ˜์ฑ…์€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:28
But we need science to tell us what our options are;
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๊ณผํ•™์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์–ด๋–ค ์„ ํƒ์„ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€ ์•Œ์•„์•ผ ํ•˜๊ณ 
06:32
that informs both our creativity and our caution.
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์ฐฝ์˜์„ฑ์„ ๋ณด์ผ ๋ถ€๋ถ„๊ณผ ์กฐ์‹ฌ์Šค๋Ÿฌ์›€์„ ๋ณด์ผ ๋ถ€๋ถ„์„ ๋ชจ๋‘ ์•Œ์•„์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:37
So I am an optimist about our future selves,
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์ €๋Š” ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์— ์ธ๋ฅ˜์˜ ์šด๋ช…์— ๊ด€ํ•ด์„œ ๊ธ์ •์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณด๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:42
but I'm not an optimist because I think our problems are small.
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๊ทธ๊ฑด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ฒ˜ํ•œ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ๊ณผ์†Œํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•ด์„œ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ
06:47
I'm an optimist because I think our capacity to deal with our problems
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ๊ธ์ •๋ก ์ž์ธ ์ด์œ ๋Š” ๋ฌธ์ œ์— ๋Œ€์ฒ˜ํ•˜๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์ด
06:53
is much greater than we imagine.
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์ƒ์ƒ ์ด์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ํ›Œ๋ฅญํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:55
Thank you very much.
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๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:57
(Applause)
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(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
06:58
This talk sparked a lot of controversy at TED2017,
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์ด ๊ฐ•์—ฐ์€ TED2017์—์„œ ๋งŽ์€ ๋…ผ๋ž€์„ ์ผ์œผ์ผฐ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:00
and we encourage you to look at discussions online
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์ €ํฌ๋Š” ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์—๊ฒŒ ์˜จ๋ผ์ธ ์ƒ์˜ ํ† ๋ก ์„ ๋ณด๋ฉด์„œ
07:02
to see other points of view.
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์˜๊ฒฌ๋“ค๋„ ์‚ดํŽด ๋ณด์‹œ๊ธธ ๊ถŒํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
์ด ์›น์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์ •๋ณด

์ด ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๋Š” ์˜์–ด ํ•™์Šต์— ์œ ์šฉํ•œ YouTube ๋™์˜์ƒ์„ ์†Œ๊ฐœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ์„ ์ƒ๋‹˜๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์น˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์—…์„ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ๋™์˜์ƒ ํŽ˜์ด์ง€์— ํ‘œ์‹œ๋˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ” ํด๋ฆญํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ณณ์—์„œ ๋™์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋น„๋””์˜ค ์žฌ์ƒ์— ๋งž์ถฐ ์ž๋ง‰์ด ์Šคํฌ๋กค๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜๊ฒฌ์ด๋‚˜ ์š”์ฒญ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ด ๋ฌธ์˜ ์–‘์‹์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.

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