How online marketplaces can help local economies, not hurt them | Amane Dannouni

Translator: Ivana Korom Reviewer: Krystian Aparta

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: 易帆 余

In February 2013, my wife and I moved to Singapore.

2013 年二月， 我和我妻子搬到新加坡。

Exactly at the same time,

就在同時，

Uber has announced it started operations in the country.

優步（Uber）宣佈 開始在該國營運。

Now, my wife and I agree on a lot of things,

我和我妻子在很多 事情上都意見一致，

but using Uber was definitely not one of them.

但使用優步偏偏 就不是其中之一。

While I was excited about the technology

我對這項技術感到興奮，

and how maybe we don't need to own cars anymore,

期待我們可能不會 再需要有自己的汽車，

she felt that every Uber car is here to steal jobs from taxi drivers.

但她卻覺得每台優步的車都是 要來偷走計程車駕駛的工作。

And Sarah was not the only one.

且莎菈並不是唯一這麼想的人。

As the Ubers, Airbnbs and Amazons of the world --

世界上的優步、Airbnb、亞馬遜

what we call "online marketplaces" --

被我們稱為「線上市集」，

as they started expanding their presence,

當它們開始拓展版圖，

we have heard, all of us, countless policymakers

我們所有人都聽過， 有數不清的政策制訂者

worried about how to deal with these new risks

擔心要如何處理這些可能造成

of job destruction, lower wages and tax leakage.

工作汰減、薪資降低、 稅收漏洞的新風險。

We've also heard company leaders

我們也都聽過公司領導人

worried about aggressive competition from global platforms

擔心來自全球平台的劇烈競爭

eating up their local businesses.

會蠶食他們的當地企業。

And on the rational level, of course I understand.

在理性的層面上，當然我能理解。

After all, this is basic supply and demand economics.

畢竟，這是基本的供給需求經濟。

If, in any market, you dramatically increase supply,

在任何市場上， 如果你大幅增加供給，

you should expect prices, profitability and growth to go down

就可以預期既有業者的價格、

for existing players.

獲利、成長都會下降。

But in my personal experience,

但，根據我的個人經驗，

I've also seen the other side of the story.

我也看過故事的另一面。

Where online marketplaces,

我看過線上市集，比如

like Gojek in Indonesia or Jumia in Africa,

印尼的 Gojek 或非洲的 Jumia，

have helped their business ecosystems and the communities around them.

曾經協助它們的企業 生態系統和相關的產業。

The positive side I have seen

我所見過的正面面向

demonstrated itself in a woman, a taxi driver in Egypt,

可以在一位埃及的 女計程車司機身上看到，

that now had the opportunity to work

她曾在計程車業中遇到騷擾，

without the harassment she faced in the taxi business.

現在有機會可以在 沒有騷擾的情況下工作。

It demonstrated itself through a village in Kenya

在肯亞的一個村落中也可以看到，

that got an economic boost,

該村落經濟起飛，

because the nearby beautiful but completely unknown lake

因為附近有一個美麗 但完全沒有人知道的湖泊

is now becoming a national ecotourism spot.

現在成了國家生態旅遊景點。

Online marketplaces will continue to grow.

線上市集會持續成長。

And they will transform the way we shop,

它們會改變我們 購物、旅行的方式，

the way we travel

and the way we transact with each other.

以及和彼此交易的方式。

So we really need to understand

所以，我們真的需要了解

where is the truth between those two stories.

那兩個故事之間的真相在何處。

Should we expect more of the bright side

我們應該期望更多光明面？

or more of the dark and worrying side?

或是更多黑暗面、憂心面？

And is there a way to get the first without getting the second?

有沒有辦法只要前者，不要後者？

I believe there is.

我相信有辦法。

As a strategy consultant, I study businesses for a living.

身為策略顧問， 我靠研究企業來維生。

And as a mathematician at heart,

而我心底是個數學家，

I couldn't live with something and its opposite being equally true.

我無法接受一件事 及它的相反都同時成立。

So, I went back to fundamentals, and I asked the question:

所以，我回到根本，問這個問題：

What do online marketplaces really do?

線上市集的真正功能是什麼？

What do they do?

它們做什麼？

Well, at their core,

在它們的核心，

they're doing something very simple.

它們所做的非常簡單。

They match sellers and buyers.

它們媒合賣家和買家。

That's it.

就這樣。

For drivers and passengers,

媒合司機和乘客的

you get Uber, Grab in Southeast Asia

就有優步、東南亞的 Grab，

or DiDi in China.

或中國的滴滴出行。

For matching merchants and consumers,

媒合商人和客人，

you get Amazon, Alibaba or Jumia in Africa.

就有亞馬遜、阿里巴巴， 或非洲的 Jumia。

And for housing, you get Airbnb;

住房則有 Airbnb；

for fundraising, you get Kickstarter --

募資就有 Kickstarter——

the list goes on.

族繁不及備載。

What all these examples have in common

這些例子的共通點

is that they transition this basic functionality

就是它們把媒合 賣家和買家的基本功能

of matching sellers and buyers

from the physical world to the digital world.

從實體世界轉換到數位世界。

And by doing so,

透過這麼做，

they can find better matches,

它們就能更快找到更好的媒合，

do it faster

and ultimately, unlock more value for everyone.

最終，讓所有人都受益。

In fact, online marketplaces' core benefit

事實上，線上市集的核心利益

is that they get us more from the same amount of effort.

是它們可以幫我們 花同樣的力氣卻得到更多。

For example,

比如，

if you're a taxi driver in San Francisco

如果你是舊金山的計程車司機，

and you decide to work 10 hours per day,

你決定一天要工作十小時，

then you're actually having a paying passenger in your car

十個小時中總共只有四個小時

for four hours out of the 10.

付錢的乘客會坐在你的車內。

If you take the same car and put it on a platform like Uber,

如果你把同樣這台車 放到平台上，如優步，

you can have paying passengers

你有載到客人的時間

for an additional one and a half hours.

可能可以再多一個半小時。

This is the same car becoming 40 percent more productive.

同樣一台車， 產能卻多了四成。

And the same has been proven true for other online marketplaces.

其它線上市集亦是如此， 這點已經得到證明。

By design, they create more value for the economy.

透過設計，可以為經濟 創造出更多價值。

Now, we need to figure out who gets this additional value.

現在，我們需要搞懂 是誰取得這些額外價值。

You can give it to the drivers --

你可以把額外價值給司機——

more passengers, more income.

讓司機有更多乘客，更多收入。

You can give it to consumers, if you reduce prices.

或者降價，你可以 把額外價值給消費者。

Or you can decide that the platform gets to keep all of it.

或者，你也可以決定讓平台 保有所有的額外價值。

What usually happens is that all three of them

通常發生的狀況是上述三者

would somehow split it.

以某種方式來瓜分。

But what about the rest of us?

但，我們其他人呢？

We can also be impacted

即使我們不是買家或賣家， 也可能受到影響。

without being on either sides of this business.

If my neighbor decides to rent his apartment on Airbnb,

如果我的鄰居決定在 Airbnb 把他的公寓出租，

and we have more people coming in and out of the building,

就會有更多人出入我們的大樓，

more noise than usual,

比平時更多噪音，

then I'm getting an unpleasant side effect of this productivity magic.

這種提高生產力的商業魔法 會為我帶來不愉快的副作用。

This is what economists would call a "negative externality."

這就是經濟學家 所謂的「負外部性」。

The negative externality of Uber cars becoming more productive

當優步車變得更有生產力， 連帶的負外部性

is taxi drivers seeing the value of their licenses drop

就是計程車司機會發現 他們的執照價值降低，

by as much as 30 percent in New York, for example.

比如，在紐約就掉了三成之多。

This is the dark side.

這是黑暗面。

And this is what sparks street demonstrations

這種狀況就會觸發街頭示威，

and sometimes, sometimes, even violence.

有時，有時，甚至會導致暴力。

I profoundly believe this is avoidable.

我深深相信，這是可以避免的。

And it became clearer to me

我花越多時間在新興市場上， 就越清楚這一點。

the more I have spent time in emerging markets.

In fact, during my time in Singapore,

事實上，我在新加坡的期間，

I spent half of any given week traveling in the region,

每週我都有一半的時間 在那個區域旅行，

between Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia,

在馬來西亞、泰國、 印尼之間旅行，

and I became a user --

我變成了使用者—— 其實比較像粉絲——

actually, more of a fan --

of online marketplaces that were not that well-known back then.

使用在那時沒有很多人 知道的線上市集。

But some of them made interesting strategic trade-offs

但有些線上市集做了 一些有趣的策略性權衡，

that dramatically reduced their side effects,

大大縮減了它們的副作用、

their externalities.

它們的外部性。

Take Gojek, for example.

以 Gojek 為例，

They're basically Uber for motor bikes.

基本上，它就像是優步摩托車。

They are one of the most liked online marketplaces in Indonesia,

它是印尼最被 喜愛的線上市集之一，

and this has a lot to do with the role they chose to play.

這和它選擇扮演的角色 有很大的關係。

Instead of picking a fight

它選擇不要和外面 其它的交通選項挑起戰爭，

with every other transportation option out there,

they choose to gradually integrate them within their own platform,

而是將那些選項漸漸 整合到它自己的平台當中，

so that without leaving the Gojek app,

所以，在 Gojec 的應用程式中，

you can check the public transportation schedule

你就可以查看 公共交通運輸時間表，

and choose to take a bus for a long distance.

並選擇搭乘巴士做長程旅行。

Then, maybe, a motorbike or a traditional taxi

也許，再選擇乘坐 摩托車或傳統計程車，

that you can order and pay for from within the same app.

在同一個應用程式中 就可以訂購、付款。

If you look at Gojek today,

現在去看 Gojek，

nine out of 10 previous motor taxi drivers

十個過去的摩托計程車 司機當中就有九個

believe their quality of life has improved after joining the platform.

相信他們在加入該平台之後 就改善了生活品質。

And nine out of 10 consumers --

十個消費者當中有九個——

nine out of 10 --

十個當中就有九個——

believe that Gojek has a positive impact on society in general.

相信一般來說，Gojek 對於社會有正面的影響。

Now, this level of trust is what allowed Gojek to grow

這種程度的相信讓 Gojek 可以成長

into what is today a super online marketplace for everything

成為現今無所不包的 超級線上市集，

from food to grocery

從食物到雜貨都有，

even massages and laundry pickups.

甚至有按摩和上門取貨的洗衣服務。

It all came from a deliberate trade-off

這全都來自深思熟慮的權衡，

to be an orchestrator of a bigger ecosystem

在其他業者都有自己角色的 更大生態系統中，

where others also have their role to play,

它決定扮演協作者的角色，

instead of a single winner, a hero,

而不是扮演唯一的贏家、英雄，

that takes for himself what would, at the end, be a smaller pie.

獲利並非它全拿， 最終它只拿一點點。

Another interesting example is Jumia.

另一個有趣的例子是 Jumia。

Jumia is the equivalent of Amazon in Africa.

Jumia 等同於非洲的亞馬遜。

But they don't generate the same level of fear

但它並不像亞馬遜在小型企業圈中

in the small-business community.

造成那種程度的恐懼。

And one of the reasons for that

其中一個原因

is because they have decided to actively invest

是因為它決定要主動投資

in African entrepreneurs,

非洲的企業家，

to grow them into the digital age.

栽培他們進入數位時代。

Now keep in mind,

請記住，

Jumia is operating in countries with some of the lowest digital literacy

Jumia 營運所在的國家，

其數位素養和數位連結力的分數

and digital connectivity scores in the world.

在世界上是吊車尾的。

Now they could have dealt with that

他們本來可以用一般的方式 來處理這個問題，

the usual way, through lobbying for reforms --

即透過改革的議案遊說——

and they probably do that --

可能他們也遊說——

but they have also built Jumia University,

但他們也建立了 Jumia 大學，

an e-learning platform

那是一個數位學習平台，

where merchants can come and learn basic digital and business skills.

商人可以在那裡學習 基本的數位和商業技能。

We have studied online marketplaces in Africa last year.

去年，我們研究了 非洲的線上市集。

And during that study, we have met one of Jumia's merchants.

在研究中，我們見到了 其中一位 Jumia 的商人。

His name is Jomo.

他叫做朱莫。

He was fired from his job in 2014,

他在 2014 年被開除，丟了工作，

and at that time, he decided he wanted to become his own boss.

那時，他決定要自己當老闆。

He wanted to be independent.

他想要獨立。

He also wanted to never be fired again.

他也想要永遠不會再被開除。

So at that time,

那時朱莫對於企業一點概念都沒有。

Jomo had no clue what a business is.

So he needed to go through a series of trainings

所以，他必須要經過一連串訓練，

to learn how to select products, how to price them

以學習如何選擇產品、如何定價，

and how to promote them online.

以及如何在線上推銷它們。

Today, Jomo has a 10-employee online business.

現在，朱莫擁有線上事業， 旗下有十名員工。

And as of a few months ago,

在幾個月前，

he just opened his very first brick-and-mortar shop

他的第一家實體店面剛開張，

in the suburbs of Nairobi.

位在奈洛比的近郊。

Now, through its university,

透過 Jumia 大學，

Jumia has the potential of helping a huge number of Jomos.

Jumia 有潛力可以協助 許多像朱莫這樣的人。

And we have estimated that together with other online marketplaces

我們估計，把非洲所有其它 線上市集一併納入計算，

on the continent,

they can generate three million additional jobs by 2025.

到 2025 年，它們可以 額外產生三百萬個工作。

And they would do that either directly,

有可能是直接提供工作職缺，

or through their impact on the wider community.

也有可能是影響更廣大的 業界而帶來工作機會。

And sometimes,

有時，

taking that wider impact into consideration

考量或沒考量到這些

or forgetting about it

會對更廣泛的利益群體所造成的影響，

can make or break a platform.

將決定這個平台能否繼續生存下去。

To illustrate that, let's go back to Singapore.

為了說明這點， 咱們回來談談新加坡。

So, when we decided with my wife to leave the country last year,

當我和我妻子去年 決定要離開新加坡，

Uber decided to do the same.

優步也做了同樣的決定。

At the same time,

對，

again, we started to see that pattern,

我們又再次看見那個模式，

but maybe it's a coincidence.

但，也許只是巧合。

In reality, Uber lost the ride-hailing battle

在現實中，

優步在這場即時叫車服務的戰役中

to a Malaysian-born start-up called Grab.

輸給了來自馬來西亞的 新創公司 Grab。

Now, interestingly,

有趣的是，

my wife didn't have the same level of concerns with Grab,

我妻子對 Grab 的憂心 程度沒有那麼高，

because when Grab started, it had a different name.

因為當 Grab 在推出時， 用了不同的名字。

It was called MyTeksi,

它叫做 MyTeksi （音近「我的計程車」），

and as the name suggests, it started as a platform for taxis.

它的名字暗示

它一開始是個計程車的平台。

So when Grab started expanding the driver pool beyond taxis,

所以，當 Grab 開始擴展， 納入計程車以外的司機，

it was seen as gradual and reasonable.

這個動作被視為是 漸近式且合理的。

They were also very careful while doing so.

他們在這麼做的時候也非常謹慎。

They thought of what kind of social safety net

他們有去思考 他們應該帶給所有司機

they should bring to all drivers.

什麼樣的社會安全網。

So they put in place special insurance packages

所以他們安排了 特殊的保險組合方案，

and even financial education programs.

甚至還有財務教育計畫。

Now, compare that with what happened in London,

把這個情況拿來和倫敦、

in New York, in Paris,

紐約、巴黎做比較，

where taxi drivers didn't feel that the platforms understood

在這幾個城市中， 計程車司機不認為平台了解

they had to pay 200,000 euros for their license --

他們必須要支付二十萬歐元 才能取得他們的執照——

and mostly in loans.

且大部分要靠貸款。

When you don't take that kind of social environmental information

如果你沒有把那種

社會環境資訊納入考量，

into account,

you get strong reactions.

就可能得到強烈的反彈。

I'm not trying to argue that the trade-offs

我的意思並不是 Grab、Jumia，

by either Grab or Jumia or Gojek are risk-free.

或 Gojek 所做的權衡就沒有風險。

Did they slow down growth at some point, temporarily?

它們的成長是否在某個時點 就會暫時慢下來？

Maybe.

也許。但，看看現今的它們。

But look at them today.

Gojek is worth 10 billion dollars.

Gojek 的市值有一百億美金。

Jumia is one of only three unicorns in the whole of Africa.

Jumia 是全非洲僅有的 三隻獨角獸之一 。

And Grab, well, they pushed out Uber

至於 Grab，他們趕走了優步，

out of the whole region of Southeast Asia.

讓優步幾乎退出了 整個東南亞地區。

And I also think these trade-offs have nothing specific to emerging markets.

我也認為，這些權衡 並非只適用於新興市場。

Amazon or Uber or others can learn from them

亞馬遜、優步，或其它平台 都可以向它們學習，

and adapt them to their own realities.

再針對自己的現實狀況做調整。

In the long run,

長期來看，

this doesn't need to be a zero-sum game.

這並不一定要是個零和賽局。

In the long run --

長期來看——

and this is maybe the Asian side of me speaking --

或許我有點亞洲人的思維——

it pays to be patient.

耐心最終會有回報的。

It pays to reconsider your goal and your priorities

重新考量你的目標 和優先順序也是會有回報的，

in the light of a much bigger equation

要在更大的公式中做重新考量，

that includes you and your users, of course,

公式當然會包含你和你的使用者，

but also it includes regulators,

但也還要包含監管機關、

policymakers, your communities.

政策制訂者、你的業界。

And I would argue, above all,

我認為，最重要的，

it includes the very businesses you are meant to disrupt.

首先要把被你平台影響的 產業也都納入考量。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）