The real relationship between your age and your chance of success | Albert-László Barabási

翻译人员: psjmz mz 校对人员: Yolanda Zhang

Today, actually, is a very special day for me,

今天对我来说很特别，

because it is my birthday.

因为是我的生日。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

And so, thanks to all of you for joining the party.

谢谢大家参与这个聚会。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

But every time you throw a party, there's someone there to spoil it. Right?

可是，每次你举办聚会的时候， 总是有人捣蛋，对吧？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And I'm a physicist,

我是个物理学家，

and this time I brought another physicist along to do so.

这次我带来了另一个物理学家。

His name is Albert Einstein -- also Albert -- and he's the one who said

他的名字是阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦—— 也叫阿尔伯特——他是那个说过

that the person who has not made his great contributions to science

如果一个人到30岁时对科学

by the age of 30

都没啥大贡献，

will never do so.

也就永远不会有贡献了。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Now, you don't need to check Wikipedia

你不需要查维基百科

that I'm beyond 30.

去了解我是不是超过30岁。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

So, effectively, what he is telling me, and us,

实际上他是想告诉我们，

is that when it comes to my science,

当涉及到我在科学领域的作为时，

I'm deadwood.

我是朽木难雕了。

Well, luckily, I had my share of luck within my career.

幸运的是，我的事业运还算不错。

Around age 28, I became very interested in networks,

在28岁时，我对网络产生了兴趣，

and a few years later, we managed to publish a few key papers

几年后，我成功发表了几篇

that reported the discovery of scale-free networks

关于发现无标度网络的核心论文，

and really gave birth to a new discipline that we call network science today.

并催生了一门我们今天称为 网络科学的新学科。

And if you really care about it, you can get a PhD now in network science

如果你对这个学科也很感兴趣， 可以在布达佩斯，在波士顿

in Budapest, in Boston,

读取网络科学的博士学位，

and you can study it all over the world.

也可以在全球各地学习这门课程。

A few years later,

几年后，

when I moved to Harvard first as a sabbatical,

当我第一次在哈佛进行学术休假时，

I became interested in another type of network:

我对另一种形态的网络产生了兴趣：

that time, the networks within ourselves,

在我们自身的网络中，

how the genes and the proteins and the metabolites link to each other

基因、蛋白质和代谢物如何相互联系

and how they connect to disease.

以及它们与疾病的关系。

And that interest led to a major explosion within medicine,

这个兴趣引发了 医学领域的一阵轰动，

including the Network Medicine Division at Harvard,

包括哈佛大学的网络医学部，

that has more than 300 researchers who are using this perspective

有300多名研究人员 基于这个想法来治疗病人，

to treat patients and develop new cures.

开发新的治疗方法。

And a few years ago,

几年以前，

I thought that I would take this idea of networks

我觉得我应该把网络的概念

and the expertise we had in networks

和关于网络的专业知识

in a different area,

应用于一个新的领域，

that is, to understand success.

用来理解成功。

And why did we do that?

我们为什么要这么做？

Well, we thought that, to some degree,

我们认为，在某种程度上，

our success is determined by the networks we're part of --

我们的成功取决于我们所处的网络——

that our networks can push us forward, they can pull us back.

我们的网络可以推动我们前进， 也能拖我们后腿。

And I was curious if we could use the knowledge and big data and expertise

我好奇我们能否使用 在网络中获得的这些知识，

where we develop the networks

结合大数据和专长

to really quantify how these things happen.

来量化事情是如何发生的。

This is a result from that.

这是一个结果。

What you see here is a network of galleries in museums

你在这里看到的是博物馆里

that connect to each other.

相互连接的画廊网络。

And through this map that we mapped out last year,

通过这张我们去年绘制的图，

we are able to predict very accurately the success of an artist

如果给我他或她在他们的 职业生涯举办的前五个展览，

if you give me the first five exhibits that he or she had in their career.

我们就能够非常准确地预测 一个艺术家是否成功。

Well, as we thought about success,

当我们思考成功时，

we realized that success is not only about networks;

我们意识到成功不仅跟网络有关；

there are so many other dimensions to that.

还有很多其他的维度。

And one of the things we need for success, obviously,

其中一个成功的必要因素，

is performance.

很明显就是业绩。

So let's define what's the difference between performance and success.

让我们定义一下业绩和成功的差别。

Well, performance is what you do:

业绩是你做的事情：

how fast you run, what kind of paintings you paint,

你跑得有多快，你画的是什么画，

what kind of papers you publish.

你发表的是什么论文。

However, in our working definition,

然而，在我们的工作定义中，

success is about what the community notices from what you did,

成功是社群从你的业绩中

from your performance:

注意到你做的哪些事情，

How does it acknowledge it, and how does it reward you for it?

如何承认你的成就，如何奖励你？

In other terms,

换句话说，

your performance is about you, but your success is about all of us.

你的业绩跟你有关， 但你的成功跟大家都有关。

And this was a very important shift for us,

这对我们来说是个非常重要的转变，

because the moment we defined success as being a collective measure

因为我们把成功定义为社群

that the community provides to us,

给予我们的集体评价。

it became measurable,

这样一来成功就变得可衡量，

because if it's in the community, there are multiple data points about that.

因为在一个社群中， 关于成功包含着很多数据点。

So we go to school, we exercise, we practice,

我们上学，我们练习，我们实践，

because we believe that performance leads to success.

因为我们相信业绩会让我们成功。

But the way we actually started to explore,

但当我们开始探索，

we realized that performance and success are very, very different animals

我们开始意识到 以数学的方式看待这个问题时，

when it comes to the mathematics of the problem.

业绩和成功是非常， 非常不同的概念，

And let me illustrate that.

让我来解释一下。

So what you see here is the fastest man on earth, Usain Bolt.

你在这里看到的是世界上 最快的人，尤塞恩·博尔特。

And of course, he wins most of the competitions that he enters.

当然，他赢得了大多数参与的比赛。

And we know he's the fastest on earth because we have a chronometer

我们知道是他是世界上最快的人， 因为我们有精密的计时器

to measure his speed.

去测量他的速度。

Well, what is interesting about him is that when he wins,

有趣之处在于当他获胜时，

he doesn't do so by really significantly outrunning his competition.

他并没有明显地超过竞争对手。

He's running at most a percent faster than the one who loses the race.

他跑得比输掉比赛的人 最多快百分之一。

And not only does he run only one percent faster than the second one,

他不仅只比第二名快百分之一，

but he doesn't run 10 times faster than I do --

他的速度也不超过我的10倍——

and I'm not a good runner, trust me on that.

并且我还不是个擅长跑步的人， 这点请相信我。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And every time we are able to measure performance,

每次我们能够评估业绩时，

we notice something very interesting;

我们都会注意到一些有趣的事情：

that is, performance is bounded.

业绩是有界限的。

What it means is that there are no huge variations in human performance.

这意味着人类的业绩 并没有巨大的差异。

It varies only in a narrow range,

它变化的范围非常小，

and we do need the chronometer to measure the differences.

我们确实需要精密的计时器 来测量这个差异。

This is not to say that we cannot see the good from the best ones,

不是说我们不能从 最好的人身上看到好的一面，

but the best ones are very hard to distinguish.

但最好的人非常难以识别。

And the problem with that is that most of us work in areas

并且问题在于我们很多人的工作领域

where we do not have a chronometer to gauge our performance.

并没有精密的计时器 来衡量我们的业绩。

Alright, performance is bounded,

好了，业绩是有界限的，

there are no huge differences between us when it comes to our performance.

当涉及我们的业绩时， 我们之间并没有显著的差异。

How about success?

那么成功呢？

Well, let's switch to a different topic, like books.

让我们转到另一个话题，比如书籍。

One measure of success for writers is how many people read your work.

评估作家成功的一个方法是 有多少人阅读了你的作品。

And so when my previous book came out in 2009,

当我早先那本书 在2009年出版时，

I was in Europe talking with my editor,

我在欧洲和编辑谈话，

and I was interested: Who is the competition?

我感兴趣的是：谁是我的竞争对手？

And I had some fabulous ones.

我有一些炙手可热的对手。

That week --

那周——

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Dan Brown came out with "The Lost Symbol,"

丹·布朗出版了《失落的秘符》，

and "The Last Song" also came out,

并且尼古拉斯·斯帕克斯

Nicholas Sparks.

的《最后一首歌》也问世了。

And when you just look at the list,

当你看这个书单时，

you realize, you know, performance-wise, there's hardly any difference

你意识到，就业绩而言，这些书

between these books or mine.

和我的之间并无多大差别。

Right?

是吧？

So maybe if Nicholas Sparks's team works a little harder,

如果尼古拉斯·斯帕克斯 的团队再努力一点，

he could easily be number one,

他就可以轻松进入榜首，

because it's almost by accident who ended up at the top.

因为最终谁在畅销榜顶端 几乎是随机的。

So I said, let's look at the numbers -- I'm a data person, right?

所以我说，让我们看看数字吧—— 我就是干这行的，对吧？

So let's see what were the sales for Nicholas Sparks.

让我们看看尼古拉斯·斯帕克斯 的作品销量。

And it turns out that that opening weekend,

结果在新书发售的那个周末，

Nicholas Sparks sold more than a hundred thousand copies,

尼古拉斯·斯帕克斯 卖出了10万多本书，

which is an amazing number.

这是个惊人的数字。

You can actually get to the top of the "New York Times" best-seller list

你可以看看纽约时报 每周销量在1万册以上的

by selling 10,000 copies a week,

畅销书榜单，

so he tenfold overcame what he needed to be number one.

所以他只凭借新书销量的 十分之一就能轻松登上榜首。

Yet he wasn't number one.

然而他不是第一名。

Why?

为什么？

Because there was Dan Brown, who sold 1.2 million copies that weekend.

因为有丹·布朗，他在 那个周末卖出了120万册。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And the reason I like this number is because it shows that, really,

我喜欢这个数字的原因 是因为它真正显示了，

when it comes to success, it's unbounded,

当涉及到成功时，它是没有界限的，

that the best doesn't only get slightly more than the second best

最好的不止比第二名好一点点，

but gets orders of magnitude more,

而超越了好几个数量级，

because success is a collective measure.

因为成功是集体的衡量标准。

We give it to them, rather than we earn it through our performance.

我们给予他们成功，而不是 通过我们的业绩获得它。

So one of things we realized is that performance, what we do, is bounded,

我们意识到业绩是有界限的，

but success, which is collective, is unbounded,

但成功，属于集体衡量的，是无界的，

which makes you wonder:

这一定让你心生疑惑：

How do you get these huge differences in success

当人们的业绩表现差异很小的时候，

when you have such tiny differences in performance?

为何成功的差异如此之大？

And recently, I published a book that I devoted to that very question.

最近，我出版了一本 关于这个问题的书。

And they didn't give me enough time to go over all of that,

我没有太多时间详细介绍这本书，

so I'm going to go back to the question of,

所以我打算回到这个问题，

alright, you have success; when should that appear?

成功通常会在什么时候出现呢？

So let's go back to the party spoiler and ask ourselves:

那么让我们回到派对捣乱者 的话题，问问我们自己：

Why did Einstein make this ridiculous statement,

为什么爱因斯坦要发表 这样荒谬的言论，

that only before 30 you could actually be creative?

人的创造力止步于30岁？

Well, because he looked around himself and he saw all these fabulous physicists

因为他发现周围 所有这些创造量子力学

that created quantum mechanics and modern physics,

和现代物理学的伟大物理学家，

and they were all in their 20s and early 30s when they did so.

他们的伟大成就都是诞生在 20多岁和30岁出头。

And it's not only him.

并不是只有他这样想。

It's not only observational bias,

这不仅是观察偏差，

because there's actually a whole field of genius research

因为事实上有一整个 领域的天才研究

that has documented the fact that,

都证明了这一点，

if we look at the people we admire from the past

如果回顾一下我们崇拜的先人，

and then look at what age they made their biggest contribution,

然后再看他们做出 最大贡献的年纪，

whether that's music, whether that's science,

不管在音乐，在科学，

whether that's engineering,

还是在工程领域，

most of them tend to do so in their 20s, 30s, early 40s at most.

大部分人都是在他们20岁，30岁， 最多40岁出头时做出了这些成绩。

But there's a problem with this genius research.

但这个天才研究有个问题。

Well, first of all, it created the impression to us

首先，它为大众制造了一种印象，

that creativity equals youth,

即创造力等于年轻，

which is painful, right?

真让人伤心，不是吗？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And it also has an observational bias,

并且它也存在观察偏差，

because it only looks at geniuses and doesn't look at ordinary scientists

因为它只观察了天才， 并没研究普通科学家，

and doesn't look at all of us and ask,

并没有看着我们这些人问，

is it really true that creativity vanishes as we age?

随着年龄的增长， 创造力真的会消失吗？

So that's exactly what we tried to do,

所以这正是我们尝试做的，

and this is important for that to actually have references.

并且有参照对象很重要。

So let's look at an ordinary scientist like myself,

那么让我们看看像我 这样平凡科学家

and let's look at my career.

的职业生涯。

So what you see here is all the papers that I've published

这里是我发表的全部论文，

from my very first paper, in 1989; I was still in Romania when I did so,

从1989年发表的最早一篇论文； 当时我还在罗马尼亚，

till kind of this year.

直到今年这个时候。

And vertically, you see the impact of the paper,

纵坐标，你可以看到论文的影响，

that is, how many citations,

也就是被引用的次数，

how many other papers have been written that cited that work.

有多少其他人发表的论文 引用了我的工作。

And when you look at that,

当你看这个数据时，

you see that my career has roughly three different stages.

可以看到我的职业生涯有三个阶段。

I had the first 10 years where I had to work a lot

我第一个10年，工作很多，

但却并没有多少成就。

and I don't achieve much.

No one seems to care about what I do, right?

似乎没人关注我做的事情，对吧？

There's hardly any impact.

没有一点影响力。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

That time, I was doing material science,

当时，我在做材料科学，

and then I kind of discovered for myself networks

然后我自己发现了网络，

and then started publishing in networks.

然后开始发表网络的文章，

And that led from one high-impact paper to the other one.

从那以后，高影响力的文章 我发表了一篇又一篇。

And it really felt good. That was that stage of my career.

那时感觉真是很好，那是 我职业生涯的高光时刻。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

So the question is, what happens right now?

那么问题是，现在发生了什么？

And we don't know, because there hasn't been enough time passed yet

我们不知道，现在就去 计算出这些论文

to actually figure out how much impact those papers will get;

会产生怎样的影响还为时尚早，

需要时间来获取这些信息。

it takes time to acquire.

当你看这个数据时，

Well, when you look at the data,

it seems to be that Einstein, the genius research, is right,

会觉得爱因斯坦和 天才研究的结论是对的，

and I'm at that stage of my career.

我在我职业生涯的高光阶段。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

So we said, OK, let's figure out how does this really happen,

那么让我们看看 这究竟是如何发生的，

first in science.

首先看看科学领域。

And in order not to have the selection bias,

为了不产生选择偏差，

to look only at geniuses,

只看天才，

we ended up reconstructing the career of every single scientist

我们最终重建了1900年至今每一位

from 1900 till today

科学家的职业生涯，

and finding for all scientists what was their personal best,

并找到了所有科学家 的个人最高成就，

whether they got the Nobel Prize or they never did,

不管他获得了诺贝尔奖还是没有，

or no one knows what they did, even their personal best.

或是没人问津，即便是他最好的成就。

And that's what you see in this slide.

这就是你们在这张幻灯片上看到的。

Each line is a career,

每条线是个职业生涯，

and when you have a light blue dot on the top of that career,

在职业生涯的顶端 有一个浅蓝色的点，

it says that was their personal best.

代表着他们个人的最好成就。

And the question is,

问题是，

when did they actually make their biggest discovery?

他们最重大的发现 发生在什么时候？

To quantify that,

要量化这点，

we look at what's the probability that you make your biggest discovery,

我们看的是你获得 最大发现的概率是多少，

let's say, one, two, three or 10 years into your career?

比如你职业生涯的 的第1，2，3或者10年。

We're not looking at real age.

我们真正要看的并不是年纪。

我们看的是所谓的“学术年龄。”

We're looking at what we call "academic age."

你的学术年龄始于 你发表第一篇论文的时候。

Your academic age starts when you publish your first papers.

I know some of you are still babies.

我知道你们有些人还是婴儿。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

So let's look at the probability

那么让我们来看看

that you publish your highest-impact paper.

你发表最高影响力论文的概率。

And what you see is, indeed, the genius research is right.

你看到的是，的确， 天才研究的结论是正确的。

Most scientists tend to publish their highest-impact paper

很多科学家发表的 影响力最高的论文倾向于

in the first 10, 15 years in their career,

发表在他们职业生涯的 前10到15年，

and it tanks after that.

在那之后就会直线下降。

It tanks so fast that I'm about -- I'm exactly 30 years into my career,

它下降得如此之快——我如今 正处在我职业的第30个年头，

and the chance that I will publish a paper that would have a higher impact

我发表一篇比过往有 更高影响力的论文

than anything that I did before

的概率

is less than one percent.

不到1%。

I am in that stage of my career, according to this data.

根据这个数据，我正处在 职业生涯的这个阶段。

But there's a problem with that.

但这里有个问题。

We're not doing controls properly.

我们的对照数据有问题。

So the control would be,

对照数据就是，

what would a scientist look like who makes random contribution to science?

对科学做出随机贡献的 科学家会是什么样子？

Or what is the productivity of the scientist?

或者科学家的生产力怎样？

When do they write papers?

他们什么时候写的论文？

So we measured the productivity,

所以我们评估了生产力，

and amazingly, the productivity,

令人惊讶的是，生产力，

your likelihood of writing a paper in year one, 10 or 20 in your career,

你在职业生涯的第1年、第10年 或第20年写论文的概率，

is indistinguishable from the likelihood of having the impact

与论文产生影响的概率

in that part of your career.

几乎无法区分。

And to make a long story short,

长话短说，

after lots of statistical tests, there's only one explanation for that,

在很多的数据检验后， 只有一个解释，

that really, the way we scientists work

真相是，我们科学家的工作，

is that every single paper we write, every project we do,

我们写的每篇论文，做的每个项目

has exactly the same chance of being our personal best.

都有同样的概率成为 我们个人的最佳成果。

That is, discovery is like a lottery ticket.

那就是，发现就像中彩票。

And the more lottery tickets we buy,

我们买了越多的彩票，

the higher our chances.

我们中奖的几率就越高。

And it happens to be so

碰巧的是，

that most scientists buy most of their lottery tickets

很多科学家在他们 职业生涯的头10年，

in the first 10, 15 years of their career,

15年买了大部分的彩票，

and after that, their productivity decreases.

在那之后，他们的生产力就下降了。

They're not buying any more lottery tickets.

他们不再买更多的彩票。

So it looks as if they would not be creative.

所以看起来他们没有创造力了。

In reality, they stopped trying.

现实中，他们停止了尝试。

So when we actually put the data together, the conclusion is very simple:

所以当我们把数据放在一起时， 结论非常简单：

success can come at any time.

成功可能随时会来。

It could be your very first or very last paper of your career.

它可能是你职业生涯中 最早或最后的论文。

It's totally random in the space of the projects.

它在项目的空间中完全是随机的。

It is the productivity that changes.

改变的是你的生产力。

Let me illustrate that.

让我解释一下。

Here is Frank Wilczek, who got the Nobel Prize in Physics

这是获得诺贝尔物理学奖 的弗兰克·威尔切克，

for the very first paper he ever wrote in his career as a graduate student.

他得奖要归功于研究生时 写的第一篇论文。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

More interesting is John Fenn,

更有趣的是约翰·芬，

who, at age 70, was forcefully retired by Yale University.

他在70岁时，被耶鲁大学强制退休，

They shut his lab down,

他们关闭了他的实验室，

and at that moment, he moved to Virginia Commonwealth University,

那时，他搬到了弗吉尼亚联邦大学，

opened another lab,

开了另一个实验室，

and it is there, at age 72, that he published a paper

就在那里，在年纪72岁时， 他发表了一篇论文，

for which, 15 years later, he got the Nobel Prize for Chemistry.

这篇论文在15年后 获得了诺贝尔化学奖。

And you think, OK, well, science is special,

你会想，科学领域比较特殊，

but what about other areas where we need to be creative?

但其他需要我们有创造力的领域呢？

So let me take another typical example: entrepreneurship.

那么让我们再看看 另一个典型的例子：创业。

Silicon Valley,

硅谷。

the land of the youth, right?

年轻人的领地，对吧？

And indeed, when you look at it,

确实，当你看这个领域时，

你发现最大的奖励， TechCrunch Awards或其他奖励，

you realize that the biggest awards, the TechCrunch Awards and other awards,

are all going to people

全都给了平均年纪

whose average age is late 20s, very early 30s.

在30岁左右的人。

You look at who the VCs give the money to, some of the biggest VC firms --

再看看VC的钱都给了谁， 一些最大的VC企业——

all people in their early 30s.

几乎所有的人都在30岁出头。

Which, of course, we know;

当然，我们知道；

there is this ethos in Silicon Valley that youth equals success.

硅谷有这样一种风气： 年轻等于成功。

Not when you look at the data,

不过，当你看数据的时候 就不会这样认为了。

because it's not only about forming a company --

看看这些人当中有谁真正

forming a company is like productivity, trying, trying, trying --

成立了一家成功的公司——

when you look at which of these individuals actually put out

成立一个公司就像生产力， 尝试，尝试，再尝试。

a successful company, a successful exit.

因为这不仅关于成立一个公司。

And recently, some of our colleagues looked at exactly that question.

最近，我们的几位同事 正好研究了这个问题。

And it turns out that yes, those in the 20s and 30s

果不期然，这些年纪 在20多岁和30多岁的人

put out a huge number of companies, form lots of companies,

创立了大量的公司，很多公司，

but most of them go bust.

但大部分都破产了。

And when you look at the successful exits, what you see in this particular plot,

再看看那些成功的退出， 你在这个图中可以看到，

the older you are, the more likely that you will actually hit the stock market

你年纪越大，就越有可能 轰动股票市场

or the sell the company successfully.

或者成功出售公司。

This is so strong, actually, that if you are in the 50s,

数据很显著，事实上， 如果你50多岁，

you are twice as likely to actually have a successful exit

你成功退出的机会是

than if you are in your 30s.

你30岁时的两倍。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

So in the end, what is it that we see, actually?

所以最后，我们看到了什么？

What we see is that creativity has no age.

我们看到的是创意并无年龄限制。

Productivity does, right?

生产力才是关键，对吧？

Which is telling me that at the end of the day,

这就告诉我们，

if you keep trying --

如果你不断尝试——

(Laughter)

（笑声）

you could still succeed and succeed over and over.

你仍然可以不断取得成功。

So my conclusion is very simple:

所以我的结论很简单：

I am off the stage, back in my lab.

演讲结束后，我得回到实验干活儿了。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）